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Sunday Night Football *** 49ers vs Cowboys *** (+3.5, 45) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Wingnut
- Start date
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Rooting for the 49ers in this one, F the Cowboys.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
That's a high score for those 2 defenses.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
this should be a great battle regardless of score. think 9ers cover the spread, but i'm no expert.
some questions that need to be answerd on the Cowboys side, defense, Dak, and play calling are top of mind. would love this defense to slow down CMC so we can see more of what that 9er passing game is capable of also.
some questions that need to be answerd on the Cowboys side, defense, Dak, and play calling are top of mind. would love this defense to slow down CMC so we can see more of what that 9er passing game is capable of also.
rockaction
Footballguy
Parsons was really, really gimpy against NE last week. I wouldn't bet on him being at full speed. Just food for thought.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I think SF can score as much as AZ did against the Dallas D. I expect it to be "trading blow" at some point in the 2nd half to get that score up there.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Lay the points
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
I'd like a tie. Let them both feel some slight disappointment in the outcome.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A but early. Go Niners!
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Niners win double digits and remove any doubt that right now they are the best overall team in football. The Purdy hero story continues.
Call me crazy but I think the Cowboys win outright. The 49ers are 4-0. They are not going 16-0. They will lose to somebody and it may as well be Dallas.
The reason I am confident, is because nobody here is giving the Cowboys a chance. Seriously not one person here picked Dallas. But Vegas says it will be a 3 point game. I'll trust Vegas' super computers on this one. There's a reason Nevada has no state income tax and it's not because they let people get rich betting the favorite every game.
The entire sports betting market is about getting people to overbuy the favorites. You know, kind of like we just saw tonight. There was "no way" the Bears would win tonight.
The same way it's now "impossible" for Dallas to win this game. It also helps that San Francisco is 3-1 or 75% ATS. Vegas designs their lines so they can get as close to 50% as possible and guarantee a win off the vig. Do you understand?
31 to 20. Cowboys shock everybody. Vegas cleans up. Skip Bayless freaks out.
The reason I am confident, is because nobody here is giving the Cowboys a chance. Seriously not one person here picked Dallas. But Vegas says it will be a 3 point game. I'll trust Vegas' super computers on this one. There's a reason Nevada has no state income tax and it's not because they let people get rich betting the favorite every game.
The entire sports betting market is about getting people to overbuy the favorites. You know, kind of like we just saw tonight. There was "no way" the Bears would win tonight.
The same way it's now "impossible" for Dallas to win this game. It also helps that San Francisco is 3-1 or 75% ATS. Vegas designs their lines so they can get as close to 50% as possible and guarantee a win off the vig. Do you understand?
31 to 20. Cowboys shock everybody. Vegas cleans up. Skip Bayless freaks out.
Deamon
Footballguy
Dude what in the world are you talking about lolCall me crazy but I think the Cowboys win outright. The 49ers are 4-0. They are not going 16-0. They will lose to somebody and it may as well be Dallas.
The reason I am confident, is because nobody here is giving the Cowboys a chance. Seriously not one person here picked Dallas. But Vegas says it will be a 3 point game. I'll trust Vegas' super computers on this one. There's a reason Nevada has no state income tax and it's not because they let people get rich betting the favorite every game.
The entire sports betting market is about getting people to overbuy the favorites. You know, kind of like we just saw tonight. There was "no way" the Bears would win tonight.
The same way it's now "impossible" for Dallas to win this game. It also helps that San Francisco is 3-1 or 75% ATS. Vegas designs their lines so they can get as close to 50% as possible and guarantee a win off the vig. Do you understand?
31 to 20. Cowboys shock everybody. Vegas cleans up. Skip Bayless freaks out.
Who is saying it's impossible for Dallas to win the game? It's a 3 point spread in SF... it's basically a coin flip.
I've never heard someone use the words "going to shock everybody" on a 3 point spread lol
Dude what in the world are you talking about lolCall me crazy but I think the Cowboys win outright. The 49ers are 4-0. They are not going 16-0. They will lose to somebody and it may as well be Dallas.
The reason I am confident, is because nobody here is giving the Cowboys a chance. Seriously not one person here picked Dallas. But Vegas says it will be a 3 point game. I'll trust Vegas' super computers on this one. There's a reason Nevada has no state income tax and it's not because they let people get rich betting the favorite every game.
The entire sports betting market is about getting people to overbuy the favorites. You know, kind of like we just saw tonight. There was "no way" the Bears would win tonight.
The same way it's now "impossible" for Dallas to win this game. It also helps that San Francisco is 3-1 or 75% ATS. Vegas designs their lines so they can get as close to 50% as possible and guarantee a win off the vig. Do you understand?
31 to 20. Cowboys shock everybody. Vegas cleans up. Skip Bayless freaks out.
Who is saying it's impossible for Dallas to win the game? It's a 3 point spread in SF... it's basically a coin flip.
I've never heard someone use the words "going to shock everybody" on a 3 point spread lol
To put this as politely as possible, I very much do not appreciate your post. I think you grossly misunderstood what I wrote. Nobody in this thread has taken Dallas, only me.
So in context of our audience here, 100% of people picked the 49ers. Many picked them by double-digits. See these posts quoted below. Most these people are implying Dallas will lose by multiple scores. Also, notice how I wrote the term "impossible" in quotes. That was to denote hyperbole and make an exaggerated point about nobody picking the Cowboys. You're right, it is 3.5 point line and yet nobody in here picked the Cowboys. That's the point. The "public" in here thinks they know more than Vegas' supercomputers and are writing off Dallas despite Vegas telling them it will be a 1 score game...
You think you are correcting me, but you are the one who doesn't understand. 75% of the early money is on San Francisco. Here's a post that might help you understand better.
*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!
Welp, Lebron tweeted he's taking the Skins tonight, so Bears +6 it is for this guy.
forums.footballguys.com
*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!
Welp, Lebron tweeted he's taking the Skins tonight, so Bears +6 it is for this guy.
forums.footballguys.com
There's a strategy called "fading the public" which means when everyone likes one team, you bet the opposite. Because if the favorite won every time, then the majority of people would be rich. Since we know the majority of people are losing, then it makes sense we want to bet AGAINST them.
So for instance, when everyone in this thread likes the 49ers. It makes me love the Cowboys because a Cowboys win is most profitable for Vegas and long-term Vegas doesn't lose.
If Vegas wanted action on the Cowboys, they would have set the line at +5.5 or +6. But that's the whole point, imo, they don't want Cowboys action. They want everyone on San Francisco and I'm not falling for it.
But with all due respect, if all you're going to do is laugh at me then prefer if you didn't comment on my sportsbetting posts. Myself and my associates bet thousands on these games. I take it very seriously and I do not have time to be disrespected or have my credibility questioned.
I have been doing this a very longtime. I could write a book on sportsbetting. The primary difference between the way I do it vs others, is that I treat it like a market. Vegas does all the work, the first step is figuring out where the sharp vs public money is, but I digress.
But hey, what do I know? It's not like I picked the Bears to win outright as 6 point underdogs. Oh wait, I did.
Just know that I am very good at this stuff and if you don't want to believe that, that's fine but know I take it very seriously and many of these leans I post have thousands of dollars bet amongst me and my associates.
If you could, pretend you're sitting at a high stakes blackjack table. Would you verbally criticize someone for their decision to stand / hit against a 12? What if you knew they were counting cards and had a greater edge than everyone else sitting at the table?
Please think in those terms. The key to success in gambling is to be rational and emotionless. If someone was criticizing my every move at Blackjack while I was counting cards and the other guy wasn't, I'd laugh at that dumb son of a ***** and find a new table to play at.
If you are nice to me, I can tell you when the deck is hot or you can laugh at me and I won't tell you **** and then go sit at a table where people aren't splitting 10s. There's no place for negativity in life let alone gambling, especially when the stakes are larger than some people's paychecks.
God bless.
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Well hopefully you take Cowboys money line if you feel that strongly.
All true though! You can check the numbers yourself. Scroll down until you see Dallas / San Francisco. It's closer to 65% / 35% in favor of the 49ers. 2/3 of all bettors are on SF. It was closer to 70% / 30% last night. Vegas would win big on that spread if Cowboys cover, not to mention 49ers ML will be the last leg of many parlays being on SNF.Well that was a lot to take in.
NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages | The Action Network
Get public betting percentages on every NFL game to see which teams might be overvalued and undervalued by bettors.
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You know it, boss. ML is at +154. Which is nice because I won't have to bet as much as if it were a -110 line.
As I tell my peeps:
Cowboys ML, +154 (Cowboys +3.5 if you're a *****). BUNKER BUSTER!!!
I'll be dumping whatever I have left / whatever profit I have for the day on Cowboys for SNF. I mean, just like counting cards there's never a guarantee to win... but I feel very good about this lean based on the data I have. Hard to think Vegas will let the 49ers start 4-1 ATS.
Especially on SNF which is usually the highest volume bet game of the week (besides maybe MNF). I can't see Vegas paying out to 65 to 70% of bettors on a primetime favorite.
If that were to happen, they would be out for blood on MNF to win some of that money back. At this point, a 49ers cover would cost Vegas hundreds of millions of dollars.
Something tells me they aren't going to end up on the wrong side of that.
They always seem to be on the right side of these things.I mean... don't you guys think it's weird that every sportsbook on the planet has the same exact numbers for every sport, everyday?
You would think that for a close game, different books would have different odds based on whatever formula they were using to calculate the line.
But here's the deal, it's a controlled operation. A monopoly if you will. Vegas doesn't want people out there competing with their own lines. Right? If you run a sportsbook, you HAVE to use the same lines as everyone else.
It's not a "free market". One person or computer or a team of people and computers makes a line... which is then instantly accepted universally at every sportsbook across the globe. Think of how much MONEY and POWER the people who make that line possess.
Because either the line is so well calculated, that not 1 sportsbook on the planet "disagrees" with it. Or they know that whoever creates that line has been profitable for the past many decades that they fall in line.
Either way, it's pretty spooky thinking how large the conglomerate is that they:
1.) Always win.
2.) Control the entire market.
Almost seems like a mob / mafia operation, but I'm sure that stuff doesn't happen anymore. Right? I'm sure there's no organized crime in a multibillion dollar industry that would have enough money and media influence to cover the trail. I am sure this is all on the "up and up" and left to chance.
You would think that for a close game, different books would have different odds based on whatever formula they were using to calculate the line.
But here's the deal, it's a controlled operation. A monopoly if you will. Vegas doesn't want people out there competing with their own lines. Right? If you run a sportsbook, you HAVE to use the same lines as everyone else.
It's not a "free market". One person or computer or a team of people and computers makes a line... which is then instantly accepted universally at every sportsbook across the globe. Think of how much MONEY and POWER the people who make that line possess.
Because either the line is so well calculated, that not 1 sportsbook on the planet "disagrees" with it. Or they know that whoever creates that line has been profitable for the past many decades that they fall in line.
Either way, it's pretty spooky thinking how large the conglomerate is that they:
1.) Always win.
2.) Control the entire market.
Almost seems like a mob / mafia operation, but I'm sure that stuff doesn't happen anymore. Right? I'm sure there's no organized crime in a multibillion dollar industry that would have enough money and media influence to cover the trail. I am sure this is all on the "up and up" and left to chance.
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Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
We’ll see about that December 3rd.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Purdy at the podium: "I'll do whatever it takes to make the team win" as he talks about Sunday nights matchup.
youtu.be
Brock Purdy: ‘I’ll Do Whatever it Takes to Make the Team Win’ | 49ers
#49ers #dalvssf Quarterback Brock Purdy recapped the team’s performance against the Arizona Cardinals and previewed the 49ers “Sunday Night Football” matchup...
youtu.be
Wingnut
Footballguy
Last Friday, Tyron Smith (knee) was listed as “Out” for Dallas’ game vs. the Patriots.
Today, he has no injury designation for Sunday at San Fran. Smith is expected to play, giving the Cowboys their best-5 O-line (Smith/Smith/Biadasz/Martin/Steele) for the first time in 630 days
Today, he has no injury designation for Sunday at San Fran. Smith is expected to play, giving the Cowboys their best-5 O-line (Smith/Smith/Biadasz/Martin/Steele) for the first time in 630 days
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Think the niners have a bit of a letdown game and Purdy has an uncharacteristically bad game. Dallas wins by less than a FG in a low scoring affair. 23-21.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
49ers 27 Cowboys 13
Wingnut
Footballguy
Per Lombardi:
Dallas Cowboys initial scouting report in the context of their matchup with the 49ers...
-Marquee matchup is Dallas' defense (#1 DVOA) vs. SF offense (#2 DVOA). 49ers have beaten the Cowboys in each of the past two seasons, but both times Dallas has limited SF to relatively low efficiency clips. In fact, last season's playoff win over the Cowboys saw the 49ers' lowest offensive EPA of Brock Purdy's tenure as starting QB (excluding Philly injury game)
-Obvious knock on Dallas' defense is how poorly they defended the run against Arizona, whose ground attack the 49ers are capable of emulating. 222 yards on 7.4 per carry for the Cardinals vs the Cowboys. That said, it was a grind on the ground for SF vs Dallas in playoffs last season: 113 yards on just 3.5 per carry. Christian McCaffrey, whose lane vision within the 49ers' system has taken clear strides, will be back in the spotlight
-Cowboys are allowing 5.7 YAC per reception, ranking them #27 in the NFL. This is an obvious vulnerability vs the 49ers, the league's YAC kings
-But the 49ers will have to protect well enough to set the table for Purdy to facilitate YAC for his targets. SF's OL allowed only 3 total pressures against Arizona, but Dallas' front is a different beast with Micah Parsons (27 pressures), DeMarcus Lawrence (15 pressures) and a full stable of pass rushers beyond that. Parsons lines up vs both tackles and will even test the interior
-Cowboys blitz 31.1% of the time, 7th-highest rate in NFL. Over past two weeks, 49ers have faced a record-high blitz rate from NYG (85%) and Arizona's league-low blitz rate (17%) and dropped 30+ points on both. Schematically, Purdy and Co. should be prepared — but Dallas' pass rush personnel is a different beast
-SF's significant edge on paper comes on the other side, where the 49ers' defense (#7 DVOA) will face what's been a mediocre Cowboys' offense (#16 DVOA) so far
-QB Dak Prescott is operating a drastically changed "Texas Coast" offense. The Cowboys have moved to a quick-release pass attack. Prescott's snap-to-release average (2.49s) is 4th-fastest in the NFL and he's averaging the second-shortest throws the league — from 8.3 intended air yards in 2022 to just 5.7 in 2023.
Early returns have brought a significantly reduced INT rate for Prescott but also less explosiveness. It's evened out. EPA/play has remained unchanged. WR CeeDee Lamb remains Prescott's favorite target with a relatively even distribution to TE Jake Ferguson, RB Tony Pollard and WR Michael Gallup beyond that. Expect Dallas to deploy premium talent in the slot. Arizona did this to slide Deommodore Lenoir inside and force 49ers' reserve CB Ambry Thomas into the game
Sack rate vs Cowboys has also remained relatively constant, perhaps because Dallas' OL is not the fearsome unit it once was. The health status of their best lineman, LT Tyron Smith, is in question (he's been out past two games). Chuma Edoga has allowed significant pressure in his place and RT Terence Steele has also struggled. The 49ers' pass rush should continue to be effective — especially since the Cowboys have not operated nearly as good of a rushing attack as Arizona to diffuse pressure
-Both teams are enjoying excellent starts from their rookie kickers. The 49ers' Jake Moody has yet to miss, while Dallas' Brandon Aubrey is 13-13 on FGs with only one XP miss — on his very first NFL attempt
In summary: The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points. The edge lies in the supposed advantage that their defense has over Dallas' offense. But the Cowboys' defense is dangerously explosive, evidenced by their 14 sacks (#5 in NFL) and 7 INTs (#2 in NFL) — which have persisted even after the loss of CB Trevon Diggs.
There's a huge difference in Dallas' defense when the Cowboys are playing with a lead vs when they're playing from behind. It's imperative that the 49ers play this game on their terms — like Arizona did in Week 3, and like SF has in its two recent playoff wins over the Cowboys. Offensive balance tethered around the run game is the best tool to soften Dallas, which features a defense that can truly roar with its ears pinned back rushing the passer.
Dallas' offense has really struggled in the red zone (#30), while SF is coming off its best red-zone performance under Kyle Shanahan (5-5 TDs).
Both teams struggled in red zone when facing off last season
Sunday should be a great gauge of the improvement that Purdy, McCaffrey and the 49ers' OL have made since last season.
Dallas Cowboys initial scouting report in the context of their matchup with the 49ers...
-Marquee matchup is Dallas' defense (#1 DVOA) vs. SF offense (#2 DVOA). 49ers have beaten the Cowboys in each of the past two seasons, but both times Dallas has limited SF to relatively low efficiency clips. In fact, last season's playoff win over the Cowboys saw the 49ers' lowest offensive EPA of Brock Purdy's tenure as starting QB (excluding Philly injury game)
-Obvious knock on Dallas' defense is how poorly they defended the run against Arizona, whose ground attack the 49ers are capable of emulating. 222 yards on 7.4 per carry for the Cardinals vs the Cowboys. That said, it was a grind on the ground for SF vs Dallas in playoffs last season: 113 yards on just 3.5 per carry. Christian McCaffrey, whose lane vision within the 49ers' system has taken clear strides, will be back in the spotlight
-Cowboys are allowing 5.7 YAC per reception, ranking them #27 in the NFL. This is an obvious vulnerability vs the 49ers, the league's YAC kings
-But the 49ers will have to protect well enough to set the table for Purdy to facilitate YAC for his targets. SF's OL allowed only 3 total pressures against Arizona, but Dallas' front is a different beast with Micah Parsons (27 pressures), DeMarcus Lawrence (15 pressures) and a full stable of pass rushers beyond that. Parsons lines up vs both tackles and will even test the interior
-Cowboys blitz 31.1% of the time, 7th-highest rate in NFL. Over past two weeks, 49ers have faced a record-high blitz rate from NYG (85%) and Arizona's league-low blitz rate (17%) and dropped 30+ points on both. Schematically, Purdy and Co. should be prepared — but Dallas' pass rush personnel is a different beast
-SF's significant edge on paper comes on the other side, where the 49ers' defense (#7 DVOA) will face what's been a mediocre Cowboys' offense (#16 DVOA) so far
-QB Dak Prescott is operating a drastically changed "Texas Coast" offense. The Cowboys have moved to a quick-release pass attack. Prescott's snap-to-release average (2.49s) is 4th-fastest in the NFL and he's averaging the second-shortest throws the league — from 8.3 intended air yards in 2022 to just 5.7 in 2023.
Early returns have brought a significantly reduced INT rate for Prescott but also less explosiveness. It's evened out. EPA/play has remained unchanged. WR CeeDee Lamb remains Prescott's favorite target with a relatively even distribution to TE Jake Ferguson, RB Tony Pollard and WR Michael Gallup beyond that. Expect Dallas to deploy premium talent in the slot. Arizona did this to slide Deommodore Lenoir inside and force 49ers' reserve CB Ambry Thomas into the game
Sack rate vs Cowboys has also remained relatively constant, perhaps because Dallas' OL is not the fearsome unit it once was. The health status of their best lineman, LT Tyron Smith, is in question (he's been out past two games). Chuma Edoga has allowed significant pressure in his place and RT Terence Steele has also struggled. The 49ers' pass rush should continue to be effective — especially since the Cowboys have not operated nearly as good of a rushing attack as Arizona to diffuse pressure
-Both teams are enjoying excellent starts from their rookie kickers. The 49ers' Jake Moody has yet to miss, while Dallas' Brandon Aubrey is 13-13 on FGs with only one XP miss — on his very first NFL attempt
In summary: The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points. The edge lies in the supposed advantage that their defense has over Dallas' offense. But the Cowboys' defense is dangerously explosive, evidenced by their 14 sacks (#5 in NFL) and 7 INTs (#2 in NFL) — which have persisted even after the loss of CB Trevon Diggs.
There's a huge difference in Dallas' defense when the Cowboys are playing with a lead vs when they're playing from behind. It's imperative that the 49ers play this game on their terms — like Arizona did in Week 3, and like SF has in its two recent playoff wins over the Cowboys. Offensive balance tethered around the run game is the best tool to soften Dallas, which features a defense that can truly roar with its ears pinned back rushing the passer.
Dallas' offense has really struggled in the red zone (#30), while SF is coming off its best red-zone performance under Kyle Shanahan (5-5 TDs).
Both teams struggled in red zone when facing off last season
Sunday should be a great gauge of the improvement that Purdy, McCaffrey and the 49ers' OL have made since last season.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Parsons with no injury designation, but I'd still watch for his knee and ankle. They've gotta be a concern to the Cowboys.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
I actually think Parsons will be a non-factor this game. The gameplan to beating Dallas is letting Parsons be aggressive and either running right at him, or running/passing to the void he left.
Eagles did it last year with RPOs, Arizona did it in the win this year, and Shanahan is an Offensive genius with an embarassment of riches. He is too savvy NOT to neautralize maybe the best pkayer in the game right now.
This game is way too close to call for me- but super geeked to see it, as a fan. Both excellent teams playing high-level football. I really want to see how both Olines play against outstanding pass rush. As an Eagles fan, I’ jealous of the 49er Dline.
farfromforgotten
Footballguy
I had the exact same score in mind. CMC will shine under the Sunday night lights. Dak is more turnover prone than Purdy. It will be a one score game til he throws a pick, then SF wins by double digits.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Cowboys 24
Niners 17
Niners 17
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You are up and on board!
-I'm looking forward to a terrific SNF night with a lot of folks piled in here wanting to talk and discuss numerous things FF/NFL
Good Luck to you and Good luck to all fans on both sides tonight
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Cmac might have 400 yds tonight
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Non-PPR
Need CMC and Deebo to just be normal tonight
Also the Dallas PK-Aubrey can fire at will
I have San Fran 24-21 tonight but mostly just want to enjoy the game
Need CMC and Deebo to just be normal tonight
Also the Dallas PK-Aubrey can fire at will
I have San Fran 24-21 tonight but mostly just want to enjoy the game
renesauz
IBL Representative
I'm STILL not sold on Purdy. He's certainly solid, but every single time I've watched him I've seen him get away with a couple horrific throws. BUt Dallas is unpredicatable. They look like world beaters one week and hot garbage the next. I don't see how anyone can make a prediction they'd feel comfortable with.
As an Eagles fan, I have no clue who I would want to win this game, but in the end I just can't root for Dallas unless it has direct meaning for the Eagles. So....go SF?
Can we get a tie?
As an Eagles fan, I have no clue who I would want to win this game, but in the end I just can't root for Dallas unless it has direct meaning for the Eagles. So....go SF?
Can we get a tie?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm not truly a Purdy fan or sold on him but my goodness he throws some nice balls, the rotation and touch, he's awesome!
TheAristocrat
Footballguy
Good luck to our team @rockaction tonight. Can't be around much since the Twins are playing.
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