Per
Lombardi:
Dallas Cowboys initial scouting report in the context of their matchup with the 49ers...
-Marquee matchup is Dallas' defense (#1 DVOA) vs. SF offense (#2 DVOA). 49ers have beaten the Cowboys in each of the past two seasons, but both times Dallas has limited SF to relatively low efficiency clips. In fact, last season's playoff win over the Cowboys saw the 49ers' lowest offensive EPA of Brock Purdy's tenure as starting QB (excluding Philly injury game)
-Obvious knock on Dallas' defense is how poorly they defended the run against Arizona, whose ground attack the 49ers are capable of emulating. 222 yards on 7.4 per carry for the Cardinals vs the Cowboys. That said, it was a grind on the ground for SF vs Dallas in playoffs last season: 113 yards on just 3.5 per carry. Christian McCaffrey, whose lane vision within the 49ers' system has taken clear strides, will be back in the spotlight
-Cowboys are allowing 5.7 YAC per reception, ranking them #27 in the NFL. This is an obvious vulnerability vs the 49ers, the league's YAC kings
-But the 49ers will have to protect well enough to set the table for Purdy to facilitate YAC for his targets. SF's OL allowed only 3 total pressures against Arizona, but Dallas' front is a different beast with Micah Parsons (27 pressures), DeMarcus Lawrence (15 pressures) and a full stable of pass rushers beyond that. Parsons lines up vs both tackles and will even test the interior
-Cowboys blitz 31.1% of the time, 7th-highest rate in NFL. Over past two weeks, 49ers have faced a record-high blitz rate from NYG (85%) and Arizona's league-low blitz rate (17%) and dropped 30+ points on both. Schematically, Purdy and Co. should be prepared — but Dallas' pass rush personnel is a different beast
-SF's significant edge on paper comes on the other side, where the 49ers' defense (#7 DVOA) will face what's been a mediocre Cowboys' offense (#16 DVOA) so far
-QB Dak Prescott is operating a drastically changed "Texas Coast" offense. The Cowboys have moved to a quick-release pass attack. Prescott's snap-to-release average (2.49s) is 4th-fastest in the NFL and he's averaging the second-shortest throws the league — from 8.3 intended air yards in 2022 to just 5.7 in 2023.
Early returns have brought a significantly reduced INT rate for Prescott but also less explosiveness. It's evened out. EPA/play has remained unchanged. WR CeeDee Lamb remains Prescott's favorite target with a relatively even distribution to TE Jake Ferguson, RB Tony Pollard and WR Michael Gallup beyond that. Expect Dallas to deploy premium talent in the slot. Arizona did this to slide Deommodore Lenoir inside and force 49ers' reserve CB Ambry Thomas into the game
Sack rate vs Cowboys has also remained relatively constant, perhaps because Dallas' OL is not the fearsome unit it once was. The health status of their best lineman, LT Tyron Smith, is in question (he's been out past two games). Chuma Edoga has allowed significant pressure in his place and RT Terence Steele has also struggled. The 49ers' pass rush should continue to be effective — especially since the Cowboys have not operated nearly as good of a rushing attack as Arizona to diffuse pressure
-Both teams are enjoying excellent starts from their rookie kickers. The 49ers' Jake Moody has yet to miss, while Dallas' Brandon Aubrey is 13-13 on FGs with only one XP miss — on his very first NFL attempt
In summary: The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points. The edge lies in the supposed advantage that their defense has over Dallas' offense. But the Cowboys' defense is dangerously explosive, evidenced by their 14 sacks (#5 in NFL) and 7 INTs (#2 in NFL) — which have persisted even after the loss of CB Trevon Diggs.
There's a huge difference in Dallas' defense when the Cowboys are playing with a lead vs when they're playing from behind. It's imperative that the 49ers play this game on their terms — like Arizona did in Week 3, and like SF has in its two recent playoff wins over the Cowboys. Offensive balance tethered around the run game is the best tool to soften Dallas, which features a defense that can truly roar with its ears pinned back rushing the passer.
Dallas' offense has really struggled in the red zone (#30), while SF is coming off its best red-zone performance under Kyle Shanahan (5-5 TDs).
Both teams struggled in red zone when facing off last season
Sunday should be a great gauge of the improvement that Purdy, McCaffrey and the 49ers' OL have made since last season.