*** SUPER BOWL XL *** (1 Viewer)

[Odogs]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say. I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old. I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

 

[BGP]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say. I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old. I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

 

[Odogs]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say.  I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old.  I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

Like I said, I'm new here, but I guess I can try and give you the benefit of the doubt.

 

[BGP]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say. I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old. I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

Like I said, I'm new here, but I guess I can try and give you the benefit of the doubt.

I think you have to keep in mind that the some of the same people who say "I have no credibility" in 2005 also were the ones who said the same thing in 2004, when I said the Steelers were overrated according to my data and that the Patriots would beat them. They were wrong and I was right, but I never got one apology for that. The sensitive Steelers fans just kept right on going with attacks on me. And I'm sure if I am wrong this year, my correct prediction in 2004 won't matter and they will strictly focus on 2005. Nothing I can do.

 

[The Jerk]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say.  I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old.  I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

Like I said, I'm new here, but I guess I can try and give you the benefit of the doubt.

I think you have to keep in mind that the some of the same people who say "I have no credibility" in 2005 also were the ones who said the same thing in 2004, when I said the Steelers were overrated according to my data and that the Patriots would beat them. They were wrong and I was right, but I never got one apology for that. The sensitive Steelers fans just kept right on going with attacks on me. And I'm sure if I am wrong this year, my correct prediction in 2004 won't matter and they will strictly focus on 2005. Nothing I can do.

C'mon guys!Cut BGP some slack. This is the high point of his football season. Don't begrudge him his opportunity to talk trash before the big game.

He'd be trash talking the Browns playoff opponents -- if they had any.

He'd be touting the Browns Super Bowl wins -- if they had any.

He'd even settle for celebrating Browns AFC championship wins -- if they had any.

The Steelers success is the best thing that ever happened to BGP. The best news for him is that Ben and Troy are primed to give him opportunities to bash their playoff performances for the next decade or so.

 

[Mik789fl]

Reposting this here for the game thread. I'm sure if I'm wrong I'll take plenty of heat. But I stand by my system.

Good news and bad news. The bad news is a made a mistake by using the first post to mark up the conference title games. I should have used my second data set from this thread, which was produced based upon results after 15 games. The good news is that it would not have changed the prediction.

The super bowl pick also doesn't change, regardless of wether I use the first post (week 14) second post (week 16) or the final rankings. I use week 16 since some clubs sit their starters that last week. Not really fair to penalize the Seahawks for not trying (and it would not have penalized them anyway).

So here is what we have, based on regular season results minus week 17.

Seahawks (1st offense, 5th defense) 1+5 = magic number of 6

Steelers (8th offense, 3rd defense) 8+3 = magic number 11

The rule is that super bowl champs need their magic number to be lower than 20, which both clubs are.

Efficiencies (yards per point)

sea 13.37 O, 19.17 D

pit 14.10 O, 17.84 D

The Seahawks are more efficient on both sides of the ball. This holds true looking at week 14, 15, or 17. Entering this postseason, clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball were 19-2 in conference title games / super bowls over the past 15 years. When the Seahawks beat the Panthers for the NFC title, that number moved to 20-2 because the Seahawks were also more efficient on both sides of the ball than them. (The efficiencies were split in the Steelers-Broncos game, so it doesn't affect this). Clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball in the super bowl itself are a perfect 7-0 in the past 15 years. To me this holds a lot of weight because this isn't an arbitrary stat - its a very fundamental stat based upon points and yards - you can't statistically measure a club much better than that. Combined we are saying that a team usually has to be playing well to get to the super bowl, and when you have a team not only playing well but statisucally better than its opponent, you wind up with a winner.

One other number to consider is point differential. By that we mean points scored minus points allowed. Teams with a higher point differential have won 20 of the last 23 super bowls. Again, that is a very basic stat that should carry a lot of weight when it is that accurate in picking super bowl winners. Its not arbitrary at all.

Point differentials thru 15 games:

Seahawks: 435-248 = 187

Steelers: 354-237 = 117

The Seahawks have the edge here as well. Note that even if I included the final regular season games, the Seahawks would still have the edge.

Furthermore, let us discuss how these clubs are playing.

The Seahawks looked absolutely dominant in the NFC title game. And no-one can pick a weakness on their club right now. They can throw, run, and play defense.

I realize a lot of people believe the Steelers looked great in the AFC title game but I disagree. I know I'll draw heat for these next few paragraphs but I have to say what I think is the truth to put together a solid analysis. The Steelers did not look like a great club against the Broncos. For one, they were not able to run the football at all. In fact, the running game has not been working well for the Steelers lately. When the running game doesn't work, you are forced to throw more. The Steelers did that. When you have to throw more, you are prone to having your QB make mistakes. Contrary to what the general consensus was, Ben Rothlisberger made several mistakes, huge ones.

There are some stats I like that simply are not kept track of by anyone. One stat I would like to see kept track of in the NFL is interceptions dropped. It gives us a lot of info but because no-one keeps track of it, people act like a dropped interception should not be factored into evaluating a QB. Ben threw4 INTs in the AFC title game - none of them were caught.

1. On the first drive, Ben threw the classic, worst-throw-you-can-make pass. He tried to hit the WR who was about 5-10 yards downfield, and the CB jumps the route. That is a horrible throw that a veteran should never make. But Ben did it. The reason it is so horrible is that 9 times out of 10 the CB picks that off and scores a TD. But this time, Champ Bailey whiffed! It was almost like he was too excited to focus - he was 10 yards downfield before he realized he didn't have the ball. Instead, it popped straight up in the air and was caught for a 1st down.

2. Ben threw an INT into the end zone in the first quarter, but the defender couldn't quite haul it in. he had position, but couldn't make the catch. The Steelers scored on that drive.

3. Ben threw another INT into the end zone in the second quarter. The defender didn't get his hands up properly and it passed right between his arms. He could have had it, or at least knocked it down, instead a Steeler WR caught it for a TD.

4. In the third quarter with the score 24-14, Ben hit S John Lynch in the hands with the ball. Like the Bailey play, Lynch had nothing between him and the end zone. If he catches it, its a footrace. He just simply dropped the ball. Disregard all the other dropped ballls, if the Broncos just execute here its pretty much a new ball game.

To me, Ben didn't play well, but neither did the Broncos. They didn't punish Ben for his huge mistakes. But when you look at a box score you don't see that. If they just catch 2 of those 4, the Broncos are probably in the super bowl. Even if they just catch 1, but its that Lynch INT, and he scores, the Broncos may have won that game.

The point is that the Broncos gameplan was sound - they just didn't execute. I think the Steelers were fortunate to win that game.

The Steelers are not going to run the ball against the Seahawks. The Steelers do not have a dominant running game right now plus the Seawhawks excel against the run. On the flip side, I believe the Seahawks will be able to run against the Steelers. The Steelers excelled against the run in the regular season but they haven't fared well against the run in the postseason plus the Seahawks have a dominant running attack.

I think if the Seahawks mimic the basic gameplan of the Broncos - shut down the run and force Ben to pass - that Ben will throw INTs once again and this time the opponent doesn't drop them all.

Seahawks win this game. I think they should win this game easily. In fact, I think they should blow out the Steelers. I won't guarantee that. I think if the Seahawks have trouble with the 3-4 defense of the Steelers, then it turns into a close game. My system pretty much guarantees a Seahawks win tho, and I'll stand by that.

You went through a lot to make your point,I give you props for your details and your opinion of the game. I won't diss your "system",you stand by it and take the heat,good for you. I will disagree with you on the outcome however. Given your numbers the Steelers shouldn't even be here,they should have lost to the Bengals,then the Colts and most certainly the Broncos. Why did they win when "logic" said they shouldn't have? They won because on those given days they played better than their opponent,they made 1 or 2 or 3 more plays and won the game. I take exception to your analysis of which team is playing better,yes the Seahawks are playing outstanding footbal,they handily beat a Redskin team that was offensively challenged,at home,and they trounced a Panther team that wasn't at full strength,at home. They SHOULD have won those games easily,and to their credit they did. But to say they are playing better than a team that beat the #1,#2 and #3 seeds,on the road,in a superior conference is just wrong. The Steelers,according to the numbers,should have lost all three of those games,to THEIR credit they won all three,not as convincingly as Seattle,but given they were on the road against the top three seeds,to me,is more of an accomplishment than what Seattle has done in the playoffs. The Steelers are playing better football right now. The "numbers" should be thrown out when the playoffs start,they're a different animal. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Blackhawk 69]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say. I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old. I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

Like I said, I'm new here, but I guess I can try and give you the benefit of the doubt.

I think you have to keep in mind that the some of the same people who say "I have no credibility" in 2005 also were the ones who said the same thing in 2004, when I said the Steelers were overrated according to my data and that the Patriots would beat them. They were wrong and I was right, but I never got one apology for that. The sensitive Steelers fans just kept right on going with attacks on me. And I'm sure if I am wrong this year, my correct prediction in 2004 won't matter and they will strictly focus on 2005. Nothing I can do.

C'mon guys!Cut BGP some slack. This is the high point of his football season. Don't begrudge him his opportunity to talk trash before the big game.

He'd be trash talking the Browns playoff opponents -- if they had any.

He'd be touting the Browns Super Bowl wins -- if they had any.

He'd even settle for celebrating Browns AFC championship wins -- if they had any.

The Steelers success is the best thing that ever happened to BGP. The best news for him is that Ben and Troy are primed to give him opportunities to bash their playoff performances for the next decade or so.

Atleast Seattle can say they have more SB appearances than Cleveland.

 

[tommyboy]

Reposting this here for the game thread. I'm sure if I'm wrong I'll take plenty of heat. But I stand by my system....

...Ben threw4 INTs in the AFC title game - none of them were caught.

1. On the first drive, Ben threw the classic, worst-throw-you-can-make pass. He tried to hit the WR who was about 5-10 yards downfield, and the CB jumps the route. That is a horrible throw that a veteran should never make. But Ben did it. The reason it is so horrible is that 9 times out of 10 the CB picks that off and scores a TD. But this time, Champ Bailey whiffed! It was almost like he was too excited to focus - he was 10 yards downfield before he realized he didn't have the ball. Instead, it popped straight up in the air and was caught for a 1st down.

2. Ben threw an INT into the end zone in the first quarter, but the defender couldn't quite haul it in. he had position, but couldn't make the catch. The Steelers scored on that drive.

3. Ben threw another INT into the end zone in the second quarter. The defender didn't get his hands up properly and it passed right between his arms. He could have had it, or at least knocked it down, instead a Steeler WR caught it for a TD.

4. In the third quarter with the score 24-14, Ben hit S John Lynch in the hands with the ball. Like the Bailey play, Lynch had nothing between him and the end zone. If he catches it, its a footrace. He just simply dropped the ball. Disregard all the other dropped ballls, if the Broncos just execute here its pretty much a new ball game.

To me, Ben didn't play well, but neither did the Broncos. They didn't punish Ben for his huge mistakes. But when you look at a box score you don't see that. If they just catch 2 of those 4, the Broncos are probably in the super bowl. Even if they just catch 1, but its that Lynch INT, and he scores, the Broncos may have won that game.

The point is that the Broncos gameplan was sound - they just didn't execute. I think the Steelers were fortunate to win that game.

I tivo'd that game and have since watched it 4 times. The 1st pass should have been picked. The 2nd pass was a jump ball between the defender and the reciever. It never was an interception, not even close. It was just two guys going for the ball. Most QB's make that pass and if you expect that ball should have been picked, then you're obviously biased here. No way.

The 3rd was a great pass, contrary to what Phil Simms said during the game, from the back angle in slo motion you can see the pass went OVER the defenders hands, not through. The pass couldn't have been thrown more perfectly.

The 4th one to Lynch could have been an INT but it was low, he would have had to make a great catch, the ball was almost on the carpet when it hit him. That could have gone either way, but no way in hell does he run it back for a TD, there were a ton of steelers around him and he would have been coming up from the ground, not heading on a full head of steam to the end zone. Honestly, your analysis here is totally whack in regards to Rothelisberger.

the rest of your post was great, you should have just stopped while you were ahead.

 

[Steelers4Life]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say.  I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old.  I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

Like I said, I'm new here, but I guess I can try and give you the benefit of the doubt.

I think you have to keep in mind that the some of the same people who say "I have no credibility" in 2005 also were the ones who said the same thing in 2004, when I said the Steelers were overrated according to my data and that the Patriots would beat them. They were wrong and I was right, but I never got one apology for that. The sensitive Steelers fans just kept right on going with attacks on me. And I'm sure if I am wrong this year, my correct prediction in 2004 won't matter and they will strictly focus on 2005. Nothing I can do.

BGP, what you said about last year's team wasn't ground-breaking. The Steelers were home underdogs and not as good as the Patriots. Roethlisberger had hit the rookie wall and didn't have much left, which was clear after thet Jets game, and the defense wasn't good enough or experienced enough to win the game alone. The "sensitive" Steelers fans get tired of you trying so hard t find fault with everything the Steelers accomplish and using stats that depend so much on other factors to justify your opinions. Lets talk about which games the Seahawks have played this year that truly were impressive, because I can't find one. Or lets talk about how the Seahawks clearly struggled without their "12th man." Nah, instead lets talk about stats highly dependent on a teams' style of play and strength of opponents in order to justify why the Steelers should get destroyed.

In your opinion, everything they do is the result of luck or the other team making mistakes, and that couldn't be further from the truth. You're talking about a team that went into Indy and Denver in back to back weeks and thoroughly dominated both games.

Your opinion that Roethlisberger threw 4 INTs that should have big caught last week is bogus at best, and we had to laugh at the notion that Roethlisberger was a concern heading into the playoffs.

And your opinions on Cowher have been laughable. He's showing people now what kind of game planner he can be with a QB capable of making defenses pay for selling out to stop the run. People overlook the fact that he's NEVER had that before, and he's still accomplished a helluva lot in his first 14 years of coaching. You expect Steelers fans to not stand up for him when you say he should've been replaced by now and that it's better to root for a lost franchise like the Browns rather than the Steelers?

The fact that you never once stopped to give the Steelers credit after all the bashing you've dished out this year is irresponsible if you want anyone to take you seriously.

 

[seahawk 17]

Seattle has victory parade set already

Link

Saturday, January 28, 2006

By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Seahawks and the City of Seattle apparently know the outcome of the Super Bowl already, and it isn't a good one for the Steelers.

According to a report Thursday in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the team already has planned its victory parade for the Tuesday after the game.

The Seahawks' victory parade is set to begin at the Seattle center at noon Feb. 7 and will culminate at Qwest Field, where a 30-minute program has been scheduled, complete with entertainment and speakers.

The Steelers have not made any plans for a victory celebration.

"No, we'll cross that bridge and worry about planning a parade if we get to that point," said team spokesman Dave Lockett.

"All of our focus and energy has just been on the game. We'll deal with what happens afterward when the game is over, but, for now, the only thing we're concentrating on is getting ready for the game."

Most cities do this to prepare especially if they have no experience in holding such an event. Seattle certainly has no experience so not really a surprise. I don't think this is a motivational thing for anyone but as a superstitious person I don't really like it.

Maybe.But you and/or tarheel23 would be all over Pittsburgh if the situation was reversed.

Steelers already have there Super Bowl 40 Champions shirts printed up.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Seattle has victory parade set already

Link

Saturday, January 28, 2006

By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Seahawks and the City of Seattle apparently know the outcome of the Super Bowl already, and it isn't a good one for the Steelers.

According to a report Thursday in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the team already has planned its victory parade for the Tuesday after the game.

The Seahawks' victory parade is set to begin at the Seattle center at noon Feb. 7 and will culminate at Qwest Field, where a 30-minute program has been scheduled, complete with entertainment and speakers.

The Steelers have not made any plans for a victory celebration.

"No, we'll cross that bridge and worry about planning a parade if we get to that point," said team spokesman Dave Lockett.

"All of our focus and energy has just been on the game. We'll deal with what happens afterward when the game is over, but, for now, the only thing we're concentrating on is getting ready for the game."

Most cities do this to prepare especially if they have no experience in holding such an event. Seattle certainly has no experience so not really a surprise. I don't think this is a motivational thing for anyone but as a superstitious person I don't really like it.

Maybe.But you and/or tarheel23 would be all over Pittsburgh if the situation was reversed.

Steelers already have there Super Bowl 40 Champions shirts printed up.

So do the Seahawks. And their hats. I saw them both on TV.They have to... do people think the hats and tshirts they wear after the game are printed only after the game is decided?

This is just like the Steelers taking abuse for booking reservations for the Super Bowl before the AFC Championship against the Patriots. BOTH teams do it because they can't realistically wait until after the game. The losing team just cancels theirs.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Saw this on TV last night. Reebok prints both Seahawks and Steelers Super Bowl shirts before the game and donates the losers shirts to the underprivileged.This is going to be one long week...

 

[tthelen @iserv.net]

Why isn't anyone talking about the Wilson TD, when Ben pump faked and got Bailey to bite?

 

[Steelers4Life]

Why isn't anyone talking about the Wilson TD, when Ben pump faked and got Bailey to bite?

What about it? It was a great call because the Steelers ran slants all year in the red zone. Bailey knew that, bit on the pump, and Wilson was wide open on the corner route.Great call, great execution by Ben and Wilson.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Saw this on TV last night. Reebok prints both Seahawks and Steelers Super Bowl shirts before the game and donates the losers shirts to the underprivileged.

I guess that means the Seahawks get to keep theirs.

 

[CrossEyed]

For everyone looking at the trends of the past and expecting them to continue, remember that #6 seed has ever won three road games to get to the Super Bowl. So you can pretty much take your trends from the past and toss them out. The Steelers have defied history and are in uncharted waters.Just sit back and enjoy the game.

 

[CrossEyed]

Arguments like this are the best argument I can think of for only having a one week break between the championship games and the SB.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I realize a lot of people believe the Steelers looked great in the AFC title game but I disagree. I know I'll draw heat for these next few paragraphs but I have to say what I think is the truth to put together a solid analysis. The Steelers did not look like a great club against the Broncos. For one, they were not able to run the football at all. In fact, the running game has not been working well for the Steelers lately. When the running game doesn't work, you are forced to throw more. The Steelers did that. When you have to throw more, you are prone to having your QB make mistakes. Contrary to what the general consensus was, Ben Rothlisberger made several mistakes, huge ones.

There are some stats I like that simply are not kept track of by anyone. One stat I would like to see kept track of in the NFL is interceptions dropped. It gives us a lot of info but because no-one keeps track of it, people act like a dropped interception should not be factored into evaluating a QB. Ben threw4 INTs in the AFC title game - none of them were caught.

1. On the first drive, Ben threw the classic, worst-throw-you-can-make pass. He tried to hit the WR who was about 5-10 yards downfield, and the CB jumps the route. That is a horrible throw that a veteran should never make. But Ben did it. The reason it is so horrible is that 9 times out of 10 the CB picks that off and scores a TD. But this time, Champ Bailey whiffed! It was almost like he was too excited to focus - he was 10 yards downfield before he realized he didn't have the ball. Instead, it popped straight up in the air and was caught for a 1st down.

2. Ben threw an INT into the end zone in the first quarter, but the defender couldn't quite haul it in. he had position, but couldn't make the catch. The Steelers scored on that drive.

3. Ben threw another INT into the end zone in the second quarter. The defender didn't get his hands up properly and it passed right between his arms. He could have had it, or at least knocked it down, instead a Steeler WR caught it for a TD.

4. In the third quarter with the score 24-14, Ben hit S John Lynch in the hands with the ball. Like the Bailey play, Lynch had nothing between him and the end zone. If he catches it, its a footrace. He just simply dropped the ball. Disregard all the other dropped ballls, if the Broncos just execute here its pretty much a new ball game.

I am a Broncos fan, but this is complete bull crap. On the pass that Bailey dropped, Ward made a great play to come back and get his hand in there, otherwise, Bailey likely would have picked it off.

The second supposed dropped INT is laughable and too ridiculous for me to even address.

The third was a tremendous throw by Roethlisberger. It reminded me of Montana's TD to Clark back in '81. It was put in a spot where only the receiver could make a play on it and he did. Like someone else said, it went over the defender's hands, not through them.

On the play with Lynch, that bounced to him. Had he picked it off, he would have had to dive forward and made a spectacular play and he likely wouldn't have gotten far with the ball.

I noticed you are not directly addressing others who have pointed out what bull crap your comments are about Roethlisberger's play in the AFC title game, but that only tells me and others that you are merely demonstrating your anti-Steelers bias and when called on it, you do not respond.

And keeping a stat like 'interceptions dropped' would be stupid. What if a QB hits a receiver in stride who would have scored a TD, but he drops the ball and it goes for an incompletion? Should we keep a 'touchdowns dropped' stat, too? Or what about when a defender fails to wrap up a QB and doesn't get the sack? How about we credit the defense and start a 'sacks missed' stat, as well?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Good posting, GR.BGp just shows up every week and talks about how the Steelers will lose. He said the Bengals should beat them, but it was no cinch. Wrong. Then he said the Colts would run them over. Wrong. Then he said they'd lose to Denver. Wrong again. He'll just keep picking against them every week, and then if/when they finally do get beaten, he'll crow about how he was right and how Cowher has once again proven he doesn't have what it takes to take a team all the way, completely disregarding the incredible job this team and this coaching staff has done just to GET to this point.The old hands have learned to just chuckle and move on. the new guys will learn that soon enough. There is no such thing as objectivity when it comes to BGP and the Steelers.

 

[DoctorDetroit]

Not much analysis here this week. Man two weeks is an eternity. I'm hoping this week goes by fairly quickly. Looking forward to some of the activities Friday night and Saturday in Detroit where I'll be flanked by my three biggest Lion fan friends for security purposes. If any FBG guys want to meet, the first round is on me at Checker's Bar & Grill. (This includes Steeler fans)

 

[Black Sunday]

You went through a lot to make your point,I give you props for your details and your opinion of the game. I won't diss your "system",you stand by it and take the heat,good for you. I will disagree with you on the outcome however. Given your numbers the Steelers shouldn't even be here,they should have lost to the Bengals,then the Colts and most certainly the Broncos. Why did they win when "logic" said they shouldn't have? They won because on those given days they played better than their opponent,they made 1 or 2 or 3 more plays and won the game. I take exception to your analysis of which team is playing better,yes the Seahawks are playing outstanding footbal,they handily beat a Redskin team that was offensively challenged,at home,and they trounced a Panther team that wasn't at full strength,at home. They SHOULD have won those games easily,and to their credit they did. But to say they are playing better than a team that beat the #1,#2 and #3 seeds,on the road,in a superior conference is just wrong. The Steelers,according to the numbers,should have lost all three of those games,to THEIR credit they won all three,not as convincingly as Seattle,but given they were on the road against the top three seeds,to me,is more of an accomplishment than what Seattle has done in the playoffs. The Steelers are playing better football right now. The "numbers" should be thrown out when the playoffs start,they're a different animal. Just my 2 cents.

 

[apalmer]

Reposting this here for the game thread.  I'm sure if I'm wrong I'll take plenty of heat.  But I stand by my system.

Good news and bad news.  The bad news is a made a mistake by using the first post to mark up the conference title games.  I should have used my second data set from this thread, which was produced based upon results after 15 games.  The good news is that it would not have changed the prediction. 

The super bowl pick also doesn't change, regardless of wether I use the first post (week 14) second post (week 16) or the final rankings.  I use week 16 since some clubs sit their starters that last week.  Not really fair to penalize the Seahawks for not trying (and it would not have penalized them anyway).

So here is what we have, based on regular season results minus week 17.

Seahawks (1st offense, 5th defense) 1+5 = magic number of 6

Steelers (8th offense, 3rd defense) 8+3 = magic number 11

The rule is that super bowl champs need their magic number to be lower than 20, which both clubs are.

Efficiencies (yards per point)

sea 13.37 O, 19.17 D

pit 14.10 O, 17.84 D

The Seahawks are more efficient on both sides of the ball.  This holds true looking at week 14, 15, or 17.  Entering this postseason, clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball were 19-2 in conference title games / super bowls over the past 15 years.  When the Seahawks beat the Panthers for the NFC title, that number moved to 20-2 because the Seahawks were also more efficient on both sides of the ball than them.  (The efficiencies were split in the Steelers-Broncos game, so it doesn't affect this).  Clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball in the super bowl itself are a perfect 7-0 in the past 15 years.  To me this holds a lot of weight because this isn't an arbitrary stat - its a very fundamental stat based upon points and yards - you can't statistically measure a club much better than that.   Combined we are saying that a team usually has to be playing well to get to the super bowl, and when you have a team not only playing well but statisucally better than its opponent, you wind up with a winner.

One other number to consider is point differential.  By that we mean points scored minus points allowed.  Teams with a higher point differential have won 20 of the last 23 super bowls.  Again, that is a very basic stat that should carry a lot of weight when it is that accurate in picking super bowl winners.  Its not arbitrary at all.

Point differentials thru 15 games:

Seahawks:  435-248 = 187

Steelers: 354-237 = 117

The Seahawks have the edge here as well. Note that even if I included the final regular season games, the Seahawks would still have the edge.

Furthermore, let us discuss how these clubs are playing. 

The Seahawks looked absolutely dominant in the NFC title game.  And no-one can pick a weakness on their club right now.  They can throw, run, and play defense.

I realize a lot of people believe the Steelers looked great in the AFC title game but I disagree.  I know I'll draw heat for these next few paragraphs but I have to say what I think is the truth to put together a solid analysis.  The Steelers did not look like a great club against the Broncos.  For one, they were not able to run the football at all.  In fact, the running game has not been working well for the Steelers lately.  When the running game doesn't work, you are forced to throw more.  The Steelers did that.  When you have to throw more, you are prone to having your QB make mistakes.  Contrary to what the general consensus was, Ben Rothlisberger made several mistakes, huge ones. 

There are some stats I like that simply are not kept track of by anyone.  One stat I would like to see kept track of in the NFL is interceptions dropped.  It gives us a lot of info but because no-one keeps track of it, people act like a dropped interception should not be factored into evaluating a QB.  Ben threw4 INTs in the AFC title game - none of them were caught. 

1.  On the first drive, Ben threw the classic, worst-throw-you-can-make pass.  He tried to hit the WR who was about 5-10 yards downfield, and the CB jumps the route.  That is a horrible throw that a veteran should never make.  But Ben did it.  The reason it is so horrible is that 9 times out of 10 the CB picks that off and scores a TD.  But this time, Champ Bailey whiffed!  It was almost like he was too excited to focus - he was 10 yards downfield before he realized he didn't have the ball.  Instead, it popped straight up in the air and was caught for a 1st down.

2.  Ben threw an INT into the end zone in the first quarter, but the defender couldn't quite haul it in.  he had position, but couldn't make the catch.  The Steelers scored on that drive.

3.  Ben threw another INT into the end zone in the second quarter.  The defender didn't get his hands up properly and it passed right between his arms.  He could have had it, or at least knocked it down, instead a Steeler WR caught it for a TD.

4.  In the third quarter with the score 24-14, Ben hit S John Lynch in the hands with the ball.  Like the Bailey play, Lynch had nothing between him and the end zone.  If he catches it, its a footrace.  He just simply dropped the ball.  Disregard all the other dropped ballls, if the Broncos just execute here its pretty much a new ball game.

To me, Ben didn't play well, but neither did the Broncos.  They didn't punish Ben for his huge mistakes.  But when you look at a box score you don't see that.  If they just catch 2 of those 4, the Broncos are probably in the super bowl.  Even if they just catch 1, but its that Lynch INT, and he scores, the Broncos may have won that game. 

The point is that the Broncos gameplan was sound - they just didn't execute.  I think the Steelers were fortunate to win that game. 

The Steelers are not going to run the ball against the Seahawks.  The Steelers do not have a dominant running game right now plus the Seawhawks excel against the run.  On the flip side, I believe the Seahawks will be able to run against the Steelers.  The Steelers excelled against the run in the regular season but they haven't fared well against the run in the postseason plus the Seahawks have a dominant running attack. 

I think if the Seahawks mimic the basic gameplan of the Broncos - shut down the run and force Ben to pass - that Ben will throw INTs once again and this time the opponent doesn't drop them all.

Seahawks win this game.  I think they should win this game easily.  In fact, I think they should blow out the Steelers.  I won't guarantee that.  I think if the Seahawks have trouble with the 3-4 defense of the Steelers, then it turns into a close game.  My system pretty much guarantees a Seahawks win tho, and I'll stand by that.

I hope your system is right for this game. I'm to see what comes in from those who disagree with some of your observations.

Shocking analysis from BGP. Absolutely shocking.

So many different variables go into the stats he uses (strength of schedule, style of offense. injuries..) that it's not worth debating them anymore.

Yes, Seattle has played well all year. They looked great against a Panthers team with their 4th string RB, an injured Julius Peppers, and it's no wonder they could focus 3 guys on Steve Smith. They're a good team, but they struggled mightily away from their home stadium this year and struggled or lost each and every time they played a remotely decent team. I've posted on that before; if you break down their performances this year game by game, it's not all that impressive when you consider who they beat, where they beat them, and how they looked doing it.

As for Ben's "INTs", not all of them should have been picked. The throw to Ward on the first series was a bad throw, and from time to time QBs make them. His receiver (Ward) made a play on the ball, and great receivers do that for their QBs.

To say the 2nd one should have been an INT is ridiculous, because it was as close to being caught as it was being intercepted. It would have been an AMAZING interception.

The third one was a perfectly placed throw to Ward in the back of the endzone over the secondary. Was it close to being broken up? Sure, and a lot of passes a "close" to being broken up. This one was perfect, and it had to be. You're the only one I've heard say anything negative about that throw.

And the Lynch one at the end of the game was a miscommunication between him and the WR. Of course, to say it would've been a footrace to the endzone had he caught it isn't true. I just watched the play again, and he would've made another 10 yards if he was lucky.

He's right in that the Steelers will struggle to run if Seattle brings 8 and 9 guys into the box like Denver and Indianapolis did. Of course, they'll get burned time and time again in the passing game if they do. In the past, during the playoffs teams could do that to the Steelers because Stewart, Maddox, Tomczak, and O'Donnell couldn't make a defense pay for it. Roethlisberger can, but then again, he's struggled lately... right BGP?

We've heard from BGP how Cowher can't coach, how Roethlisberger's fading again, and how every time the Steelers win anything, it's the other team that didn't execute or they got lucky to get by for one reason or another. We've even heard that he's happier rooting for the Browns than a franchise that won't replace Bill Cowher because he can't coach in big games (despite his 11-9 postseason record, 6 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and average of over 10 regular season wins per year)

It's almost comical at this point.

Almost?

 

[Seehawk]

I tivo'd that game and have since watched it 4 times.

Got a little free time on your hands there tommyboy?

 

[Godsbrother]

Not much analysis here this week. Man two weeks is an eternity. I'm hoping this week goes by fairly quickly.

I have read and heard so much analysis on this game that I think I know less now than I did 5 minutes after the Conference Championship Games were over. At this point I am not sure who has the edge anymore. I am just looking forward to seeing these two teams go at it.I have a feeling this week is going to drag on forever...

 

[seahawk 17]

Seattle has victory parade set already

Link

Saturday, January 28, 2006

By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Seahawks and the City of Seattle apparently know the outcome of the Super Bowl already, and it isn't a good one for the Steelers.

According to a report Thursday in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the team already has planned its victory parade for the Tuesday after the game.

The Seahawks' victory parade is set to begin at the Seattle center at noon Feb. 7 and will culminate at Qwest Field, where a 30-minute program has been scheduled, complete with entertainment and speakers.

The Steelers have not made any plans for a victory celebration.

"No, we'll cross that bridge and worry about planning a parade if we get to that point," said team spokesman Dave Lockett.

"All of our focus and energy has just been on the game. We'll deal with what happens afterward when the game is over, but, for now, the only thing we're concentrating on is getting ready for the game."

Most cities do this to prepare especially if they have no experience in holding such an event. Seattle certainly has no experience so not really a surprise. I don't think this is a motivational thing for anyone but as a superstitious person I don't really like it.

Maybe.But you and/or tarheel23 would be all over Pittsburgh if the situation was reversed.

Steelers already have there Super Bowl 40 Champions shirts printed up.

So do the Seahawks. And their hats. I saw them both on TV.They have to... do people think the hats and tshirts they wear after the game are printed only after the game is decided?

This is just like the Steelers taking abuse for booking reservations for the Super Bowl before the AFC Championship against the Patriots. BOTH teams do it because they can't realistically wait until after the game. The losing team just cancels theirs.

I was kidding/being sarcastic. Someone's nervous about losing

 

[Steelers4Life]

Seattle has victory parade set already

Link

Saturday, January 28, 2006

By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Seahawks and the City of Seattle apparently know the outcome of the Super Bowl already, and it isn't a good one for the Steelers.

According to a report Thursday in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the team already has planned its victory parade for the Tuesday after the game.

The Seahawks' victory parade is set to begin at the Seattle center at noon Feb. 7 and will culminate at Qwest Field, where a 30-minute program has been scheduled, complete with entertainment and speakers.

The Steelers have not made any plans for a victory celebration.

"No, we'll cross that bridge and worry about planning a parade if we get to that point," said team spokesman Dave Lockett.

"All of our focus and energy has just been on the game. We'll deal with what happens afterward when the game is over, but, for now, the only thing we're concentrating on is getting ready for the game."

Most cities do this to prepare especially if they have no experience in holding such an event. Seattle certainly has no experience so not really a surprise. I don't think this is a motivational thing for anyone but as a superstitious person I don't really like it.

Maybe.But you and/or tarheel23 would be all over Pittsburgh if the situation was reversed.

Steelers already have there Super Bowl 40 Champions shirts printed up.

So do the Seahawks. And their hats. I saw them both on TV.They have to... do people think the hats and tshirts they wear after the game are printed only after the game is decided?

This is just like the Steelers taking abuse for booking reservations for the Super Bowl before the AFC Championship against the Patriots. BOTH teams do it because they can't realistically wait until after the game. The losing team just cancels theirs.

I was kidding/being sarcastic. Someone's nervous about losing

After the stupid abuse the Steelers took for the whole hotel reservations thing, I can never be too sure!Nervous? Me? Nah.

 

[Godsbrother]

Seattle has victory parade set already

Link

Saturday, January 28, 2006

By Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Seahawks and the City of Seattle apparently know the outcome of the Super Bowl already, and it isn't a good one for the Steelers.

According to a report Thursday in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the team already has planned its victory parade for the Tuesday after the game.

The Seahawks' victory parade is set to begin at the Seattle center at noon Feb. 7 and will culminate at Qwest Field, where a 30-minute program has been scheduled, complete with entertainment and speakers.

The Steelers have not made any plans for a victory celebration.

"No, we'll cross that bridge and worry about planning a parade if we get to that point," said team spokesman Dave Lockett.

"All of our focus and energy has just been on the game. We'll deal with what happens afterward when the game is over, but, for now, the only thing we're concentrating on is getting ready for the game."

Most cities do this to prepare especially if they have no experience in holding such an event. Seattle certainly has no experience so not really a surprise. I don't think this is a motivational thing for anyone but as a superstitious person I don't really like it.

Maybe.But you and/or tarheel23 would be all over Pittsburgh if the situation was reversed.

Steelers already have there Super Bowl 40 Champions shirts printed up.

So do the Seahawks. And their hats. I saw them both on TV.They have to... do people think the hats and tshirts they wear after the game are printed only after the game is decided?

Seattle has victory parade set already

 

[valhallan]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win. That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win. That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

He hasn't been conservative in the games he's lost in the playoffs. Big misconception.In Super Bowl XXX, his onside kick call to start the 2nd half of the game worked out great. O'Donnell threw that game away.

In 1997, NOT being conservative cost the Steelers the game. The Steelers had a 14-10 lead and were driving again. Instead of letting Bettis pound it in, Kordell threw an INT... Denver TD.... Kordell threw another INT... another Denver TD. It's 24-14 Denver and Kordell couldn't bring them back.

In 2001, he wasn't conservative because his team fell behind due to special teams.

Last year, again, his team fell behind and Roethlisberger was too worn out to lead them back.

His playoff failures can mostly be tied back to awful QB play. This year, he's showing what kind of game plan he can use with a QB capable of playing at a high level. Most of his teams had to play the way they did because personnel dictated it.

 

[Odogs]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win.  That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

He hasn't been conservative in the games he's lost in the playoffs. Big misconception.In Super Bowl XXX, his onside kick call to start the 2nd half of the game worked out great. O'Donnell threw that game away.

In 1997, NOT being conservative cost the Steelers the game. The Steelers had a 14-10 lead and were driving again. Instead of letting Bettis pound it in, Kordell threw an INT... Denver TD.... Kordell threw another INT... another Denver TD. It's 24-14 Denver and Kordell couldn't bring them back.

In 2001, he wasn't conservative because his team fell behind due to special teams.

Last year, again, his team fell behind and Roethlisberger was too worn out to lead them back.

His playoff failures can mostly be tied back to awful QB play. This year, he's showing what kind of game plan he can use with a QB capable of playing at a high level. Most of his teams had to play the way they did because personnel dictated it.

 

[Franknbeans]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say.  I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old.  I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

How does that jibe with being a Browns fan?

 

[valhallan]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win. That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

He hasn't been conservative in the games he's lost in the playoffs. Big misconception.In Super Bowl XXX, his onside kick call to start the 2nd half of the game worked out great. O'Donnell threw that game away.

In 1997, NOT being conservative cost the Steelers the game. The Steelers had a 14-10 lead and were driving again. Instead of letting Bettis pound it in, Kordell threw an INT... Denver TD.... Kordell threw another INT... another Denver TD. It's 24-14 Denver and Kordell couldn't bring them back.

In 2001, he wasn't conservative because his team fell behind due to special teams.

Last year, again, his team fell behind and Roethlisberger was too worn out to lead them back.

His playoff failures can mostly be tied back to awful QB play. This year, he's showing what kind of game plan he can use with a QB capable of playing at a high level. Most of his teams had to play the way they did because personnel dictated it.

Good points, and I certainly agree he was not conservative in XXX.It just seems like they play best when Ben is given the opportunity to take some shots early. I believe they'll win if they continue that practice, but if they come out running I could see Seattle taking over easily.

 

[Odogs]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win.  That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

He hasn't been conservative in the games he's lost in the playoffs. Big misconception.In Super Bowl XXX, his onside kick call to start the 2nd half of the game worked out great. O'Donnell threw that game away.

In 1997, NOT being conservative cost the Steelers the game. The Steelers had a 14-10 lead and were driving again. Instead of letting Bettis pound it in, Kordell threw an INT... Denver TD.... Kordell threw another INT... another Denver TD. It's 24-14 Denver and Kordell couldn't bring them back.

In 2001, he wasn't conservative because his team fell behind due to special teams.

Last year, again, his team fell behind and Roethlisberger was too worn out to lead them back.

His playoff failures can mostly be tied back to awful QB play. This year, he's showing what kind of game plan he can use with a QB capable of playing at a high level. Most of his teams had to play the way they did because personnel dictated it.

Good points, and I certainly agree he was not conservative in XXX.It just seems like they play best when Ben is given the opportunity to take some shots early. I believe they'll win if they continue that practice, but if they come out running I could see Seattle taking over easily.

I think there is a good chance that they do come out running this game. If Seattle backs off the running game because Pittsburgh has come out throwing before, then I can easily see them running a lot.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win.  That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

He hasn't been conservative in the games he's lost in the playoffs. Big misconception.In Super Bowl XXX, his onside kick call to start the 2nd half of the game worked out great. O'Donnell threw that game away.

In 1997, NOT being conservative cost the Steelers the game. The Steelers had a 14-10 lead and were driving again. Instead of letting Bettis pound it in, Kordell threw an INT... Denver TD.... Kordell threw another INT... another Denver TD. It's 24-14 Denver and Kordell couldn't bring them back.

In 2001, he wasn't conservative because his team fell behind due to special teams.

Last year, again, his team fell behind and Roethlisberger was too worn out to lead them back.

His playoff failures can mostly be tied back to awful QB play. This year, he's showing what kind of game plan he can use with a QB capable of playing at a high level. Most of his teams had to play the way they did because personnel dictated it.

Good points, and I certainly agree he was not conservative in XXX.It just seems like they play best when Ben is given the opportunity to take some shots early. I believe they'll win if they continue that practice, but if they come out running I could see Seattle taking over easily.

How the Steelers come out will depend on what Seattle gives them. Bring the safety up in run support, and the Steelers will pass. Drop the safety back, and they'll run.In the past, the Steelers had to run the ball because they didn't have a passing game that could keep them in the game. If the running game was taken away, they struggled offensively to do much against the best teams late in the postseason.

This Steelers team is different because if the Seahawks sell out to stop the run, Ben will light up their secondary. If they keep the 8th man out of the box, the running game is still more than strong enough to take over the game and control the clock, too. Like any team, the Steelers' running game struggles when teams bring 9 guys to the line of scrimmage, but they finally have the QB to take advantage of it... the Broncos and Colts found that out.

The Seahawks also have that capability, and that's going to make this an exciting Superbowl.

 

[DoctorDetroit]

Not much analysis here this week.  Man two weeks is an eternity.  I'm hoping this week goes by fairly quickly.

I have read and heard so much analysis on this game that I think I know less now than I did 5 minutes after the Conference Championship Games were over. At this point I am not sure who has the edge anymore. I am just looking forward to seeing these two teams go at it.I have a feeling this week is going to drag on forever...

I'm a little burnt out on defending the same points and then wondering what my point actually was. I'm staying away from the game as much as possible before I hit the ground running on Friday.

Thank God I'm going so I can concentrate on the logistics of me getting there, and not what FWP's YAC was vs teams who made the playoffs when he played on grass but the opponent was a turf team who was missing their outside linebacker due to a case of the clap obtained after he had relations with the sister of the assistant defensive coordinator's wife's 3rd cousin from Wichita.

 

[evil]

How the Steelers come out will depend on what Seattle gives them.

wrong you are.... how the steelers or seahawks come out will depend on the highest bidder. what do i mean, check out ebay:http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewI...AMESE%3AIT&rd=1that is the key here... money money money and karma karma karma.I actually think the Steelers will win easy though. I just don't see how the Seahawks can score more than 14 on them... if that. The only way the Steelers lose is if they fail to score 15.

 

[Franknbeans]

Not much analysis here this week.  Man two weeks is an eternity.  I'm hoping this week goes by fairly quickly.

I have read and heard so much analysis on this game that I think I know less now than I did 5 minutes after the Conference Championship Games were over. At this point I am not sure who has the edge anymore. I am just looking forward to seeing these two teams go at it.I have a feeling this week is going to drag on forever...

I'm a little burnt out on defending the same points and then wondering what my point actually was. I'm staying away from the game as much as possible before I hit the ground running on Friday.

Thank God I'm going so I can concentrate on the logistics of me getting there, and not what FWP's YAC was vs teams who made the playoffs when he played on grass but the opponent was a turf team who was missing their outside linebacker due to a case of the clap obtained after he had relations with the sister of the assistant defensive coordinator's wife's 3rd cousin from Wichita.

The last point is moot because he's gonna run all over the Seahawks D.

 

[BGP]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win.  That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

He hasn't been conservative in the games he's lost in the playoffs. Big misconception.In Super Bowl XXX, his onside kick call to start the 2nd half of the game worked out great. O'Donnell threw that game away.

In 1997, NOT being conservative cost the Steelers the game. The Steelers had a 14-10 lead and were driving again. Instead of letting Bettis pound it in, Kordell threw an INT... Denver TD.... Kordell threw another INT... another Denver TD. It's 24-14 Denver and Kordell couldn't bring them back.

In 2001, he wasn't conservative because his team fell behind due to special teams.

Last year, again, his team fell behind and Roethlisberger was too worn out to lead them back.

His playoff failures can mostly be tied back to awful QB play. This year, he's showing what kind of game plan he can use with a QB capable of playing at a high level. Most of his teams had to play the way they did because personnel dictated it.

I think the arguement has been that because Cowher prefers to run the ball 17x to grind out a win, that his teams have not been as ready to execute aggressive gameplans to win games when they needed it in the postseason. Hence all those failures in the past. Some may argue that has changed this year.

 

[BGP]

If you don't think you're biased against Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say.  I'm not sensitive but when one person continually bashes the Steelers it gets old.  I'm sure after the game, if the Steelers win(and I believe they will), you will have a list of reasons about how they were lucky to win for the fourth time in a row.

I think I pretty much bash every club. Haven't you noticed? Some may say I'm a negative guy, but I disagree. I just have high standards.

How does that jive with being a Browns fan?

I am not satisifed with the first draft the new regime here in Cleveland put together. We got a WR who hardly played (before he tore his knee) on what basically is an expansion team. The second round pick did not make an impact in Brodney Pool. I think Frye has some serious limitations and we probably need to look elsewhere for a QB. I think its a terrible idea to be thinking defense with the top pick when the offense was the worst in the NFL. I think OC Maurice Carthon may be in over his head. We need to do FAR better than this. This draft had as much impact as anything Butch Davis put together. They've got lots of money available to improve the club thru free agency and they better get that done.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I'm going to be cheering hard for the Seahawks, but I think Pitt will win.  That is of course assuming Cowher continues to be creative and stays away from his previously conservative gameplans.

He hasn't been conservative in the games he's lost in the playoffs. Big misconception.In Super Bowl XXX, his onside kick call to start the 2nd half of the game worked out great. O'Donnell threw that game away.

In 1997, NOT being conservative cost the Steelers the game. The Steelers had a 14-10 lead and were driving again. Instead of letting Bettis pound it in, Kordell threw an INT... Denver TD.... Kordell threw another INT... another Denver TD. It's 24-14 Denver and Kordell couldn't bring them back.

In 2001, he wasn't conservative because his team fell behind due to special teams.

Last year, again, his team fell behind and Roethlisberger was too worn out to lead them back.

His playoff failures can mostly be tied back to awful QB play. This year, he's showing what kind of game plan he can use with a QB capable of playing at a high level. Most of his teams had to play the way they did because personnel dictated it.

I think the arguement has been that because Cowher prefers to run the ball 17x to grind out a win, that his teams have not been as ready to execute aggressive gameplans to win games when they needed it in the postseason. Hence all those failures in the past. Some may argue that has changed this year.

And anyone that would argue that he's lost playoff games in the past because of that would be incorrect. It's a common misconception though.He's never had the QB to execute any other gameplans before this year, and his losses, as I explained above, weren't related to him being too conservative.

He's around 105-1-1 when his teams led by 11 or more points. He knows how to put games away.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

Something that seemingly hasn't been discussed is the right side of both offensive lines. Can either team gain an edge by attacking the "weak side" of their opponent's O-line?We all know about the pro-bowlers on the left for Seattle. What about their center and the right side of the line? Their aren't many, if any, centers in the league that can block Casey Hampton 1 on 1. If Seattle's center struggles with Hampton, that will make things much more difficult for Alexander. Aaron Smith could end up 1 on 1 with Seattle's RT for much of the game, and I like the Steelers odds in that battle. In my mind, Seattle won't be able to run to the right in this game very effectively. To the left they will obviously have some success. The right side will also be susceptible to the blitz all game long, and I can see about 3-sacks for Steelers on that side or up the middle. I don't know alot about the Seattle D-line, but do know about their star rookie LB. He's not gonna hit that "rookie wall" in this game is he? Will the Steelers be able to take advantage of his inexperience and confuse him a bit? How does Seattle's D-line match up with the Steelers pro-bowl trio of Smith, Faneca and Hartings, and Simmons/Starks on the right? Starks is a beast at 6-8, 320, but do the Hawks have a speed-guy that could give him trouble? Are the Hawks beefy enough up front to keep from getting dominated by the Steelers O-line?It would be nice to get some insight from the Hawks fans on the matchups in the trenches. This is where the game will be won or lost. If either defense struggles to get pressure on the opposing QB, they will be in trouble. If both defenses struggle with the pressure, then we should have a nice shootout on our hands!

 

[Irish]

Reposting this here for the game thread. I'm sure if I'm wrong I'll take plenty of heat. But I stand by my system.

Good news and bad news. The bad news is a made a mistake by using the first post to mark up the conference title games. I should have used my second data set from this thread, which was produced based upon results after 15 games. The good news is that it would not have changed the prediction.

The super bowl pick also doesn't change, regardless of wether I use the first post (week 14) second post (week 16) or the final rankings. I use week 16 since some clubs sit their starters that last week. Not really fair to penalize the Seahawks for not trying (and it would not have penalized them anyway).

So here is what we have, based on regular season results minus week 17.

Seahawks (1st offense, 5th defense) 1+5 = magic number of 6

Steelers (8th offense, 3rd defense) 8+3 = magic number 11

The rule is that super bowl champs need their magic number to be lower than 20, which both clubs are.

Efficiencies (yards per point)

sea 13.37 O, 19.17 D

pit 14.10 O, 17.84 D

The Seahawks are more efficient on both sides of the ball. This holds true looking at week 14, 15, or 17. Entering this postseason, clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball were 19-2 in conference title games / super bowls over the past 15 years. When the Seahawks beat the Panthers for the NFC title, that number moved to 20-2 because the Seahawks were also more efficient on both sides of the ball than them. (The efficiencies were split in the Steelers-Broncos game, so it doesn't affect this). Clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball in the super bowl itself are a perfect 7-0 in the past 15 years. To me this holds a lot of weight because this isn't an arbitrary stat - its a very fundamental stat based upon points and yards - you can't statistically measure a club much better than that. Combined we are saying that a team usually has to be playing well to get to the super bowl, and when you have a team not only playing well but statisucally better than its opponent, you wind up with a winner.

One other number to consider is point differential. By that we mean points scored minus points allowed. Teams with a higher point differential have won 20 of the last 23 super bowls. Again, that is a very basic stat that should carry a lot of weight when it is that accurate in picking super bowl winners. Its not arbitrary at all.

Point differentials thru 15 games:

Seahawks: 435-248 = 187

Steelers: 354-237 = 117

The Seahawks have the edge here as well. Note that even if I included the final regular season games, the Seahawks would still have the edge.

Furthermore, let us discuss how these clubs are playing.

The Seahawks looked absolutely dominant in the NFC title game. And no-one can pick a weakness on their club right now. They can throw, run, and play defense.

I realize a lot of people believe the Steelers looked great in the AFC title game but I disagree. I know I'll draw heat for these next few paragraphs but I have to say what I think is the truth to put together a solid analysis. The Steelers did not look like a great club against the Broncos. For one, they were not able to run the football at all. In fact, the running game has not been working well for the Steelers lately. When the running game doesn't work, you are forced to throw more. The Steelers did that. When you have to throw more, you are prone to having your QB make mistakes. Contrary to what the general consensus was, Ben Rothlisberger made several mistakes, huge ones.

There are some stats I like that simply are not kept track of by anyone. One stat I would like to see kept track of in the NFL is interceptions dropped. It gives us a lot of info but because no-one keeps track of it, people act like a dropped interception should not be factored into evaluating a QB. Ben threw4 INTs in the AFC title game - none of them were caught.

1. On the first drive, Ben threw the classic, worst-throw-you-can-make pass. He tried to hit the WR who was about 5-10 yards downfield, and the CB jumps the route. That is a horrible throw that a veteran should never make. But Ben did it. The reason it is so horrible is that 9 times out of 10 the CB picks that off and scores a TD. But this time, Champ Bailey whiffed! It was almost like he was too excited to focus - he was 10 yards downfield before he realized he didn't have the ball. Instead, it popped straight up in the air and was caught for a 1st down.

2. Ben threw an INT into the end zone in the first quarter, but the defender couldn't quite haul it in. he had position, but couldn't make the catch. The Steelers scored on that drive.

3. Ben threw another INT into the end zone in the second quarter. The defender didn't get his hands up properly and it passed right between his arms. He could have had it, or at least knocked it down, instead a Steeler WR caught it for a TD.

4. In the third quarter with the score 24-14, Ben hit S John Lynch in the hands with the ball. Like the Bailey play, Lynch had nothing between him and the end zone. If he catches it, its a footrace. He just simply dropped the ball. Disregard all the other dropped ballls, if the Broncos just execute here its pretty much a new ball game.

To me, Ben didn't play well, but neither did the Broncos. They didn't punish Ben for his huge mistakes. But when you look at a box score you don't see that. If they just catch 2 of those 4, the Broncos are probably in the super bowl. Even if they just catch 1, but its that Lynch INT, and he scores, the Broncos may have won that game.

The point is that the Broncos gameplan was sound - they just didn't execute. I think the Steelers were fortunate to win that game.

The Steelers are not going to run the ball against the Seahawks. The Steelers do not have a dominant running game right now plus the Seawhawks excel against the run. On the flip side, I believe the Seahawks will be able to run against the Steelers. The Steelers excelled against the run in the regular season but they haven't fared well against the run in the postseason plus the Seahawks have a dominant running attack.

I think if the Seahawks mimic the basic gameplan of the Broncos - shut down the run and force Ben to pass - that Ben will throw INTs once again and this time the opponent doesn't drop them all.

Seahawks win this game. I think they should win this game easily. In fact, I think they should blow out the Steelers. I won't guarantee that. I think if the Seahawks have trouble with the 3-4 defense of the Steelers, then it turns into a close game. My system pretty much guarantees a Seahawks win tho, and I'll stand by that.

 

[seahawk 17]

Not much analysis here this week.  Man two weeks is an eternity.  I'm hoping this week goes by fairly quickly.

I have read and heard so much analysis on this game that I think I know less now than I did 5 minutes after the Conference Championship Games were over. At this point I am not sure who has the edge anymore. I am just looking forward to seeing these two teams go at it.I have a feeling this week is going to drag on forever...

I'm a little burnt out on defending the same points and then wondering what my point actually was. I'm staying away from the game as much as possible before I hit the ground running on Friday.

Thank God I'm going so I can concentrate on the logistics of me getting there, and not what FWP's YAC was vs teams who made the playoffs when he played on grass but the opponent was a turf team who was missing their outside linebacker due to a case of the clap obtained after he had relations with the sister of the assistant defensive coordinator's wife's 3rd cousin from Wichita.

The last point is moot because he's gonna run all over the Seahawks D.

Did you guys find your running game or go and buy one.

 

[Smoo]

I don't understand all these people who want to analyze the game. If you want to know what happens, watch the game. All this talk is less entertaining.This Shark Pool really is the place where fun went to die.

 

[Sea Bass]

I agree Smoo! We need to start a thread with a light hearted approach towards the Super Bowl. There are more points, couterpoints, and statistics in this thread that either coach would care to know. Afterall, which is more important; what percentange of pass plays the Steelers call on third and two at their own 40 yardline, or what brand of depends Cowher will wear on Sunday?

 

[Franknbeans]

How about what Holmgrens mustache smells like?

 

[Sea Bass]

Does it smell similar to Brett Favre's butt?

 

[DoctorDetroit]

Does it smell similar to Brett Favre's butt?

This thread has gone to hell. We really don't need this or anything about Cowher and his undergarments. Fun may be had but at one point, even with the occasional Smoo scenario that added not subtracted from the thread, we were discussing the finer points of the game. We don't agree but there was discussion. Start a thread if you want to talk about Brett Favre's ###.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

Was just listening to Dan Patrick on ESPN radio, and here is what he had to say about the Seahawks defense: "their defensive statistics are hollow, since many of them were generated against inferior competition." He went on to say "the Seahawks D is nowhere near as good as the Steelers D. The Steelers D just shut down a "murderer's row" of offenses in Cincy, in Indy, and in Denver..."Care to float anymore statistics around BGP and others??

 

[gadkins]

Was just listening to Dan Patrick on ESPN radio, and here is what he had to say about the Seahawks defense: "their defensive statistics are hollow, since many of them were generated against inferior competition."

He went on to say "the Seahawks D is nowhere near as good as the Steelers D. The Steelers D just shut down a "murderer's row" of offenses in Cincy, in Indy, and in Denver..."

Care to float anymore statistics around BGP and others??

I agree 100%. The Steelers are going to smoke the Seahawks.