Survivor Season 42: Starts Wednesday March 9, 2022 (5 Viewers)

[Shankopotamus]

If Ericka had flipped, all Xander would have done is guarantee a tie vote.

This brings up another interesting question.  The broadcast didn't spend much time on the possibility of Erika flipping, at least from the perspective of Danny/Deshawn/Liana.  But there must have been a serious threat of that possibility happening.  Because after Deshawn survives, both he and Danny have immunity which leave Liana alone in significant risk.  I was surprised she did not use shot in the dark, especially after Jeff reminded everyone this is the last chance to use it. 

If there was significant possibility of pulling that flip vote, they could have gotten Ricard out.

But if that was not likely (and the edit shown seemed to indicate that it was considered but so little time was spent on it that it seemed unlikely), Liana had to know she was going home. If that is the case, her vote does not matter and she should have used the shot...miss and nothing changes, hit it and Ricard goes home with Danny and Deshawn's votes.  

I think the possibility of Erika flipping was much higher than it was portrayed, thus Xander using the extra vote and Liana not using the shot.

 

[Pipes]

I mean, that is my instinct... that the odds decrease that the Ace is in the deck, and increase that I'm holding it, as new facts arise - which in your example leads to eventual 50/50. I always thought people should keep their case on deal or no deal under that logic... guess I was wrong.

Same here

 

[bryhamm]

This brings up another interesting question.  The broadcast didn't spend much time on the possibility of Erika flipping, at least from the perspective of Danny/Deshawn/Liana.  But there must have been a serious threat of that possibility happening.  Because after Deshawn survives, both he and Danny have immunity which leave Liana alone in significant risk.  I was surprised she did not use shot in the dark, especially after Jeff reminded everyone this is the last chance to use it. 

If there was significant possibility of pulling that flip vote, they could have gotten Ricard out.

But if that was not likely (and the edit shown seemed to indicate that it was considered but so little time was spent on it that it seemed unlikely), Liana had to know she was going home. If that is the case, her vote does not matter and she should have used the shot...miss and nothing changes, hit it and Ricard goes home with Danny and Deshawn's votes.  

I think the possibility of Erika flipping was much higher than it was portrayed, thus Xander using the extra vote and Liana not using the shot.

I was surprised that she didn't use it as well.  I get it if you think you need your vote, but if you are already on the wrong side of the numbers vote-wise, then what does it matter if you lose your vote.

 

[stbugs]

Brad Culpepper is both a wealthy lawyer and a former NFL player. He made it to the end of Game Changers, but it was portrayed that he lost because of a poor social game, not because of his wealth. 

Nick Wilson won as a lawyer — but he was a young public defender, which is a much different beast. 

But yeah, most white collar high earner types rub people the wrong way and get booted before the end.

Yep, I remember maybe talking about in this thread about how lawyers (established ones, usually 40+) would just act like jerks and no one liked them and they would get voted off quickly. Brad was also a bit more physically in shape as most of the older lawyers so he was able to get to final tribal by winning a bunch of immunity challenges. If he hadn’t won all those challenges he wouldn’t have made it to the end and he lost the vote because he rubbed people the wrong way.

 

[The Noid]

Hmm, ok I think I understand, thank you.

The easiest way to understand it is to expand the scenario out from 3 boxes to 1,000 boxes.

1 has fire, 999 have skulls.

You pick one box.

Jeff shows you skulls in 998 of the boxes, leaving your original box, and 1 "Jeff" box. 

Jeff says you can swap for his box and you've seen 998 skulls so you know 1 of these 2 boxes will have fire in it.

Would you rather stick with the 1 box you picked from 1,000 boxes, or switch to the one Jeff picked after showing you what was in the other 998 boxes? 

That's why it's not a 50/50 chance between your original box and Jeff's box. Your original box always carries a 1/1000 chance that you picked the right one while Jeff's box always carries a 999/1000 chance you picked wrong. If you switch to Jeff's box, you now have the 999/1000 odds.

In this case, with only 3 boxes, Deshawn stayed with his 1/3 chance instead of switching to Jeff's 2/3 chance, and managed to beat the odds.

 

[Corporation]

Well, all seriousness, if these odds are correct it is interesting. During the show I was thinking “wow, giving the guy 33% odds of surviving is harsh.” Executed this way I guess the 1% statistics nerds in the world actually get a 66% of staying alive. 

The best explanation I've seen that helps you understand is using a deck of cards.  The goal is to pick the Aces of spades from a deck of cards.  Let's pick a card from the deck and don't look at it.  Now of the remaining 51 cards, 50 are turned over and revealed to not be the Ace of spades.  There is now the card you chose and one remaining card left.  Which is more likely to be the Ace of spades?  Is it a 50/50 chance your original card is the Ace of Spades?

The larger the number gets, the more obvious it becomes.  If you had to pick one box out of a million, and then they threw all of them away except for your box and one other, do you really think it is 50/50 that you picked the right box out of a million at first? While possible, the odds are greatly in your favor that the winning box was in the other 999,999 so when there is only 2 left, make the switch.

With 1 in 3, you can get lucky with it.  I would have absolutely gone home because I was yelling "Switch!"

And now I see @The Noid just posted the same thing I did before me  I'm leaving my post since I took the time to write it

 

[Jayrok]

Using a scenario with large numbers does make it crystal clear. 

If Jeff has Deshaun turn his back and then shuffles the remaining two boxes around, and then has Deshaun re-choose... it is now 50/50 odds that he chooses correctly.  But then it is no longer the Monty Hall problem since he has no idea where his first choice is now located.  

 

[Mr. Mojo]

The easiest way to understand it is to expand the scenario out from 3 boxes to 1,000 boxes.

1 has fire, 999 have skulls.

You pick one box.

Jeff shows you skulls in 998 of the boxes, leaving your original box, and 1 "Jeff" box. 

Jeff says you can swap for his box and you've seen 998 skulls so you know 1 of these 2 boxes will have fire in it.

Would you rather stick with the 1 box you picked from 1,000 boxes, or switch to the one Jeff picked after showing you what was in the other 998 boxes? 

That's why it's not a 50/50 chance between your original box and Jeff's box. Your original box always carries a 1/1000 chance that you picked the right one while Jeff's box always carries a 999/1000 chance you picked wrong. If you switch to Jeff's box, you now have the 999/1000 odds.

In this case, with only 3 boxes, Deshawn stayed with his 1/3 chance instead of switching to Jeff's 2/3 chance, and managed to beat the odds.

I had read about this kind of puzzle previously and knew that he should have switched when it was offered.

He just got lucky!

 

[rick6668]

I had read about this kind of puzzle previously and knew that he should have switched when it was offered.

He just got lucky!

Yeah, when he stayed with his choice, I so wanted him to lose.

 

[bryhamm]

Thought of another way to describe this.  I'm sure if I asked that are the chances of snow in Phoenix tomrrow that the answer is not 50/50 just because there are only 2 options (either it will snow or it won't snow).  No, because probability needs to be factored in.  Well, the same things happens here.  Just because it is whittled down to 2 options does NOT change the probability of your initial choice only being 33% correct.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Yep, I remember maybe talking about in this thread about how lawyers (established ones, usually 40+) would just act like jerks and no one liked them and they would get voted off quickly. Brad was also a bit more physically in shape as most of the older lawyers so he was able to get to final tribal by winning a bunch of immunity challenges. If he hadn’t won all those challenges he wouldn’t have made it to the end and he lost the vote because he rubbed people the wrong way.

It’s not entirely clear he would have been booted if he lost an immunity challenge. His social game was so bad that Sarah wanted to sit with him at the end. She saw Sierra as the real threat from that alliance and got rid of her accordingly. Also, the dynamic is a little different in returnee seasons.

 

[DropKick]

I mean, that is my instinct... that the odds decrease that the Ace is in the deck, and increase that I'm holding it, as new facts arise - which in your example leads to eventual 50/50. I always thought people should keep their case on deal or no deal under that logic... guess I was wrong.

Let me present it a different way.  You make your pick and have a 1 in 3 chance.  If I immediately offered to trade the other two for yours... the vast majority of people would accept for a 2 in 3 chance.

The "illusion" is that, of the two, at least one must be a skull.  One can always be thrown away.   At that point the odds do not change to 50/50 but remain at 33% that you made the right initial pick and 67% that you didn't.

 

[BigJim®]

Let me present it a different way.  You make your pick and have a 1 in 3 chance.  If I immediately offered to trade the other two for yours... the vast majority of people would accept for a 2 in 3 chance.

The "illusion" is that, of the two, at least one must be a skull.  One can always be thrown away.   At that point the odds do not change to 50/50 but remain at 33% that you made the right initial pick and 67% that you didn't.

Yeah, if I know the person exposing the option knows it is a skull, I think I get it. Was that an obvious thing? For some reason that was not clear to me when watching Wednesday.

 

[Corporation]

Yeah, if I know the person exposing the option knows it is a skull, I think I get it. Was that an obvious thing? For some reason that was not clear to me when watching Wednesday.

It was not obvious if that was your first exposure to the Monty Hall problem.  We knew the setup immediately and figured what Jeff was going to do.  And it would have bitten us in the butt

 

[stbugs]

It’s not entirely clear he would have been booted if he lost an immunity challenge. His social game was so bad that Sarah wanted to sit with him at the end. She saw Sierra as the real threat from that alliance and got rid of her accordingly. Also, the dynamic is a little different in returnee seasons.

Man you really love to disagree don’t you! All I was trying to say is that there are many doctors and lawyers and others on the show that I’m sure have made as much or more as Danny. I think most sports fans (maybe Xander, Deshawn and I’m sure Heather is an SEC Football fan) would know Danny isn’t NFL $10M+ contract rich.

 

[The Noid]

Yeah, if I know the person exposing the option knows it is a skull, I think I get it. Was that an obvious thing? For some reason that was not clear to me when watching Wednesday.

Maybe not explicit, but Jeff wasn't randomly opening one of the 2 remaining boxes or didn't already know Deshawn picked the right one. If he didn't have that insight, it would have been possible for Jeff to reveal the fire (if Deshawn picked a different box) and then game over/no chance to offer the swap. 

 

[BigJim®]

If he didn't have that insight, it would have been possible for Jeff to reveal the fire (if Deshawn picked a different box) and then game over/no chance to offer the swap. 

Yeah, did he suggest the swap offer was a definite second step to this or did he offer the swap only after opening one? I mean, in retrospect and for drama purposes, I'm not doubting he did know, I'm just curious if that was obvious to Deshawn.

 

[The Noid]

I'm just curious if that was obvious to Deshawn.

In the moment to someone not already familiar with the Monty Hall problem, yeah, they wouldn't know and most likely wouldn't even realize what was going on with Jeff knowing/not knowing.

It's definitely one of those things where you have to already know the ins and outs beforehand to understand the best thing to do.

Similar to how if you explain the rules of Blackjack to someone that has never played it, they are usually going to just play their hand and focus on getting closest to 21 so they wouldn't see why hitting on 12 against a dealer 6 would be the "wrong" play.

 

[Instinctive]

All these ways to try and explain, the simplest is this:

What has really happened is you picked one in three. 33% chance you're right. Now, pretend instead that Jeff said, "You can swap to both of the other boxes, and if either one has fire, you're safe." That's clearly a better choice, right?

That's functionally what has happened.

 

[El Floppo]

interesting monty hall chat, boys.

 

[BigJim®]

Similar to how if you explain the rules of Blackjack to someone that has never played it, they are usually going to just play their hand and focus on getting closest to 21 so they wouldn't see why hitting on 12 against a dealer 6 would be the "wrong" play.

I definitely see what you are saying, but somewhat disagree with the analogy if "rules" are not explicit. Without the rules being explicit, the strategy may or may not be correct. But as mentioned, I now get the math. 

Back to the show, I still don't get why Xander wasted his second vote. For the extra vote to matter, he did not have the numbers for the desired outcome.

 

[stbugs]

I definitely see what you are saying, but somewhat disagree with the analogy if "rules" are not explicit. Without the rules being explicit, the strategy may or may not be correct. But as mentioned, I now get the math. 

Back to the show, I still don't get why Xander wasted his second vote. For the extra vote to matter, he did not have the numbers for the desired outcome.

While it wasn’t guaranteed, his extra vote ensures there would at worst be a revote and Ricard and he could work on Erika. It wasn’t the best play but it avoided Ricard going home without a revote. 

 

[BigJim®]

While it wasn’t guaranteed, his extra vote ensures there would at worst be a revote and Ricard and he could work on Erika. It wasn’t the best play but it avoided Ricard going home without a revote. 

It's an understatement to call it not the best strategy. Already outed for deviating, I don't see a scenario where Erika is "worked on" to become distrusted by both sides of her swing vote. There's zero chance Ricard trusts her after that, and probably not Xander either.

 

[krista4]

interesting monty hall chat, boys.

Yeah, as soon as Jeff gave him the option, I yelled "Monty Hall problem" and then knew this thread was going to be crappy for a few days.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Man you really love to disagree don’t you! All I was trying to say is that there are many doctors and lawyers and others on the show that I’m sure have made as much or more as Danny. I think most sports fans (maybe Xander, Deshawn and I’m sure Heather is an SEC Football fan) would know Danny isn’t NFL $10M+ contract rich.

I disagree!

 

[Pip's Invitation]

interesting monty hall chat, boys.

Yeah. I’m all for Survivor-related debate, but that thread is going in circles. 

 

[soothsayer]

Yeah. I’m all for Survivor-related debate, but that thread is going in circles. 

I'm in the camp that finds the Monty Hall problem - and subsequent discussion - fascinating. It takes some mental gymnastics to understand it but I can't stop thinking about what it must be like to consider while stoned.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

I'm in the camp that finds the Monty Hall problem - and subsequent discussion - fascinating. It takes some mental gymnastics to understand it but I can't stop thinking about what it must be like to consider while stoned.

Makes me want to throat punch a random stranger  

 

[Instinctive]

Re: the Xander extra vote - seems unlikely he needs it for something else, although anything can happen. But he only has two more tribals (6 and 5) to use the idol and vote so eventually it was gonna just be wasted away. And you know in one of them he plays the idol. 

 

[El Floppo]

Makes me want to throat punch a random stranger  

So basically your normal state.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Re: the Xander extra vote - seems unlikely he needs it for something else, although anything can happen. But he only has two more tribals (6 and 5) to use the idol and vote so eventually it was gonna just be wasted away. And you know in one of them he plays the idol. 

I think he had to play the extra vote by 6, but the idol is good til 5. 

He could have used the extra vote to keep Evvie in the game and get rid of someone from the power alliance earlier, or to blindside Shan without involving Deshawn, but instead he used it when he really didn’t need to because he didn’t trust Erika to vote with him or something like that. 

 

[Instinctive]

I think he had to play the extra vote by 6, but the idol is good til 5. 

He could have used the extra vote to keep Evvie in the game and get rid of someone from the power alliance earlier, or to blindside Shan without involving Deshawn, but instead he used it when he really didn’t need to because he didn’t trust Erika to vote with him or something like that. 

I'll be interested in some post game stuff. My read is that Evvie wasn't really his ally.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

So basically your normal state.

scarves are dumb

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I'll be interested in some post game stuff. My read is that Evvie wasn't really his ally.

Makes sense given the choices Xander has made. 

Tiffany spent much of her exit interviews ranting that her game was ruined because “Xander flipped.”

 

[BigJim®]

Re: the Xander extra vote - seems unlikely he needs it for something else, although anything can happen. But he only has two more tribals (6 and 5) to use the idol and vote so eventually it was gonna just be wasted away. And you know in one of them he plays the idol. 

Curious on this... these next two tribals, with diminishing # of votes, is when extra vote is most significant. Even if used in tandem with the idol to protect himself, he can basically control everything. Throwing it away was a huge wasted opportunity. Now he can protect himself for one night, but not also perhaps cast the extra vote that insulates him tomorrow.  

ETA: And imagine the added opportunities if he were to win his own individual immunit(y/ies). He had it in his hands to be puppet master. 

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Curious on this... these next two tribals, with diminishing # of votes, is when extra vote is most significant. Even if used in tandem with the idol to protect himself, he can basically control everything. Throwing it away was a huge wasted opportunity. Now he can protect himself for one night, but not also perhaps cast the extra vote that insulates him tomorrow.  

ETA: And imagine the added opportunities if he were to win his own individual immunit(y/ies). He had it in his hands to be puppet master. 

He’s been a very passive player for someone that has so many advantages. That plus his youth could mean he might not get respect from the jury if he makes FTC.

 

[Runkle]

I liked it. But didn't like the Monty Hall action. They're trying to replace strategy with something more random, which isn't so interesting to me.

I agree the Do or Die should have involved some kind of skill- or smarts- based task/puzzle/challenge. You know, actual "Do". Do something to stay in the game. On your own, all on you, nowhere to hide, kind of thing.

 

[BigJim®]

He’s been a very passive player for someone that has so many advantages. That plus his youth could mean he might not get respect from the jury if he makes FTC.

That's my point. What better way to get the jury attention in these critical 6/5 weeks than win his own independent immunity, give his idol to someone he needs to protect, and use the extra vote at an actually necessary/relevant time to blindside a strong player like Ricard, Danny or Deshawn? All of this was possible before final 4. JMHO - He's blowing it.

 

[dhockster]

You pick one box you have a 33% chance of being right.

The other two boxes represent a 66% chance of you being wrong. 

You know at least one of the two boxes in the 66% is a skull. Showing a skull box doesn't change the fact that between the two boxes there's a 66% chance one has fire.

Edit- If you were shown a skull box and then the two remaining boxes were shuffled then you would have a 50/50 shot.

Put another way, if Deshawn picked one in 3, and then Jeff offered him the chance to trade his one box for the other two boxes, should Deshawn do it? Yes because he now has a 67% of having one fire and one skull box and a 33% that he has two skull boxes.

 

[Gally]

But it's not revealed randomly.  Jeff (ie Monty Hall) KNOWS where the winner is.  He is going to reveal a non-winner every time.

Think about it with a 1 in 10 shot.  You make a choice and have a 10% shot of being right.  In there other 9 balls, there is  GUARANTEED that at least 8 or them are non-winners.  Those 8 are flipped over, leaving one unknown and yours.  You still think it is a 50-50 chance that you have the winner?

Right.  So every time you really are choosing between two boxes.  The box you pick first is irrelevant because you know that a non winner box is going to be removed.  I think this is where I get hung up on this situation.  I understand the math part but the actual implementation is the issue.  You really are only choosing between two boxes.  You just don't know which two boxes yet.  That is a 50-50 situation. 

ETA:  If they didn't always take a box away and let you choose again and they play mind tricks on you (sometimes they do and sometimes they don't) then it makes more sense to me.  But since they do it every single time it boils down to a 50-50 chance of two random boxes.   

 

[bryhamm]

Right.  So every time you really are choosing between two boxes.  The box you pick first is irrelevant because you know that a non winner box is going to be removed.  I think this is where I get hung up on this situation.  I understand the math part but the actual implementation is the issue.  You really are only choosing between two boxes.  You just don't know which two boxes yet.  That is a 50-50 situation. 

ETA:  If they didn't always take a box away and let you choose again and they play mind tricks on you (sometimes they do and sometimes they don't) then it makes more sense to me.  But since they do it every single time it boils down to a 50-50 chance of two random boxes.   

It's like I said before with the weather example.  Just because you only have 2 options/choices does NOT make it 50-50.  You still have to factor in probability.  Do you really think it is a 50-50 example on whether it will snow in Phoenix today?  It's either gonna snow or it's not gonna snow, so only 2 "options".

 

[stbugs]

Right.  So every time you really are choosing between two boxes.  The box you pick first is irrelevant because you know that a non winner box is going to be removed.  I think this is where I get hung up on this situation.  I understand the math part but the actual implementation is the issue.  You really are only choosing between two boxes.  You just don't know which two boxes yet.  That is a 50-50 situation. 

ETA:  If they didn't always take a box away and let you choose again and they play mind tricks on you (sometimes they do and sometimes they don't) then it makes more sense to me.  But since they do it every single time it boils down to a 50-50 chance of two random boxes.   

You are missing the biggest point and that sets the actual odds. I don’t know why this is even a discussion anymore, not because of the math but because we’ve beaten it like a dead horse.

When you pick 1 of 3 first you have a 33% chance and there’s a 67% chance that fire is in the other two boxes. It’s immaterial that Jeff takes one of the two and opens it. He knows what they are and he will always open up a bad box.

So, there is a 67% chance fire is in the box you didn’t pick and a 33% chance it’s in the box that you did choose. It’s not 50/50.

Think about it this way. If you do the same thing Deshawn did 3 times and the exact odds played out then 2 of the 3 times fire would have been in the other two boxes and 1 of the 3 times fire would be in the box he picked. So, if he switched boxes as he should have, he would have won 2 out of 3 times. If he sticks with his box he would have one 1 out of 3 times. It’s not 50/50.

 

[El Floppo]

oh. cool. just in case anybody missed anything from the last 5 pages.

 

[Dezbelief]

The odds are 33 1/3, 66 2/3. It's a 50/50 shot you make the right play. It's 100% if there's a tell you catch.

 

[Gally]

The odds are 33 1/3, 66 2/3. It's a 50/50 shot you make the right play. It's 100% if there's a tell you catch.

that is really the most important statement.

 

[stbugs]

oh. cool. just in case anybody missed anything from the last 5 pages.

Lol. I did say in my reply that we’ve beaten this dead horse to a pulp but damn it if I didn’t want to spell it out to avoid another 100 replies.

 

[stbugs]

that is really the most important statement.

But it’s wrong. Read through my reply because I don’t get his at all. The only way it is 50/50 is if you do not pick a box before Jeff opens one. In that case it’s 50/50 but it’s not the Monte Hall scenario. If you pick first and then one of the other two is burned it’s a 33/67 breakdown.

 

[Gally]

But it’s wrong. Read through my reply because I don’t get his at all. The only way it is 50/50 is if you do not pick a box before Jeff opens one. In that case it’s 50/50 but it’s not the Monte Hall scenario. If you pick first and then one of the other two is burned it’s a 33/67 breakdown.

all of that is based on playing this multiple times to realize those odds.  This is a one time play and at the time you are making a choice it's luck whether you will be correct.  You can be lucky like DeShawn (or unlucky if he changed his pick).  The all or nothing of a one time play greatly increases the luck factor.  

 

[Dezbelief]

all of that is based on playing this multiple times to realize those odds.  This is a one time play and at the time you are making a choice it's luck whether you will be correct.  You can be lucky like DeShawn (or unlucky if he changed his pick).  The all or nothing of a one time play greatly increases the luck factor.  

It wasn't luck, there was a tell that he caught. 

 

[stbugs]

all of that is based on playing this multiple times to realize those odds.  This is a one time play and at the time you are making a choice it's luck whether you will be correct.  You can be lucky like DeShawn (or unlucky if he changed his pick).  The all or nothing of a one time play greatly increases the luck factor.  

Huh? You started your argument that it was 50/50 so you were stating odds. That’s wrong. Using the one single choice made on the show doesn’t change the odds. Odds never change. The results of each play do. The odds on lotteries are millions to 1, but someone wins. Doesn’t mean it was 50/50 because you either win or lose it you get lucky.

Deshawn got lucky because his pick was the low odds pick. I do wonder if he saw what I saw, which was the paper on top curled a little on the first box, which is what he chose. I noticed it and was thinking choose box 1 as well.