bryhamm
Footballguy
Yep. I kept saying "switch" and when he didn't but was right, my wife gave me this look like "wtf were you saying switch for"
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Survivor Season 42: Starts Wednesday March 9, 2022 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NewlyRetired
- Start date
The Noid
Avoid me!
Same exact thing happened in our house! It's a true "analytics" situation like the ones we see in the NFL every week. If you're all-in on analytics you play the odds and switch without blinking but then if you're wrong (like we would have been in Deshawn's shoes) you'll get ridiculed! 
parrot
Footballguy
jhib
Footballguy
Ha! I got a, "What's that?" response.
So I started talking about Ask Marilyn and how I brought that Parade magazine into school and got my high school physics/computer science teacher to spend two full classes just going over it (the first day, he insisted she was wrong and then the next day, he showed us why she was right) and how he should definitely switch because he had a 2/3 chance of being wrong with his first selection and that didn't change because Jeff had to show him a skull....
"Just hit play."
And then when they showed the fire she simply said, "huh."
Maelstrom
Footballguy
This is almost exactly what happened in our house, I had yelled out Monty Hall as soon as I saw the 3 boxes and that he should switch also.bryhamm said:
Unrelated, as for the extra vote @Corporation, they are allowed to be (and now may be required to be) voted during a revote due to a tie.
Corporation
Angry Bovine
So in this scenario he could force another tie if he wanted to, and then it is a game of chicken to see who blinks because no one wants to go to rocks. This knowledge makes me feel better about both their decisions. Erika may have realized he could do this and didn't want to possibly go to rocks as that would have upset her alliance. Xander realizing he could force a tie because of Erika's lack of commitment to the plan and not just wasting the extra vote. He may quickly regret keeping Ricard in the game.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
One or both of Deshawn and Danny could end up seriously benefiting from Ricard and Xander being perceived as the biggest threats.
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krista4
Footballguy
Excellent point. It's particularly amazing to me that Danny, obviously in excellent physical shape, smart, and with a very good social game, has avoided this.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Can Danny get any votes when they all know he played in the NFL (and I would assume therefore has money)?
BigJim®
Footballguy
I don’t understand this discussion at all. He had a 33% shot. Once one of the 3 is revealed, the odds are 1 in 2, or 50%, regardless of which of those 2 he has. I don’t see how any logic would give better odds to one over the other.The Noid said:
They actually didn’t show Naseer finding his until after he said the phrase at the challenge. I think they were trying to make it a surprise that all 3 idols were found. The question I’d have is if those two idols will be planted again since they were really combined with Xander’s. That said they will likely throw at least one in because we saw it in the preview. It may also just be an advantage.
I kind of forgot but I think it’s because when the first pick is made there is a 33% chance you picked right and a 67% chance that you picked wrong. Because they host knows which box it is and opens one of the 67% chance it still means you had a 67% chance of being right if you switch to the one offered.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The Monty Hall Problem is totally not intuitive, but Google it.
Basically Jeff showing one box doesn't change the odds of the first pick being right (because Jeff is only ever going to show a skull, he's not revealing any new information) -- so they stay 1/3 if you keep your first pick.
And Jeff showing a skull ALSO doesn't change the odds that you missed the fire with your first pick (again he's showing a skull no matter what). So it's still 2/3 that one of the two boxes you didn't pick has the fire in it. And he just eliminated one of the two.
So by switching you improve your odds of winning from 1/3 to 2/3.
Basically Jeff showing one box doesn't change the odds of the first pick being right (because Jeff is only ever going to show a skull, he's not revealing any new information) -- so they stay 1/3 if you keep your first pick.
And Jeff showing a skull ALSO doesn't change the odds that you missed the fire with your first pick (again he's showing a skull no matter what). So it's still 2/3 that one of the two boxes you didn't pick has the fire in it. And he just eliminated one of the two.
So by switching you improve your odds of winning from 1/3 to 2/3.
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BigJim®
Footballguy
Yeah, that’s what was mentioned, but I’d like to see the formula that proves an obvious 50/50 somehow becomes 67%.
krista4
Footballguy
I honestly couldn't recall if they all knew that, so that's a good point. Some people do take that into account, while others don't.
I've always thought it was odd even though I get it. I mean, if Jeff were to say, I know this one box doesn't contain fire and I'll take it away before you pick then you've got a 50% chance of guessing right even if he gives you the option to switch. One could argue that the end of that scenario is exactly the same as what Deshawn had.
It's hard to take a box out of the equation and still use it in the overall odds. It's better to think of Jeff never showing the skull and if he asked you do you want to keep your first choice or take a chance that one of the two you didn't pick has it because that's basically the same.
I'm 99.5% sure that it was mentioned by someone else. He never made big money, probably $2.5M after taxes. A nice nest egg, depending on what he purchased and living expenses, especially if he invested well as the market has been great since he retired. Winning Survivor would seem like it would still impact his life, just not as much as some others.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Still don’t get it. Math is math. If it’s 3 boxes, each is 33%. If one of the 3 boxes is placed on a pedestal with a red bow, it’s still 33%. If one of the boxes are removed, the remaking boxes are 50%. If they swap, reswap, re-reswap, each is still 50%. I just don’t see how it could be anything but that.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
You pick one box you have a 33% chance of being right.
The other two boxes represent a 66% chance of you being wrong.
You know at least one of the two boxes in the 66% is a skull. Showing a skull box doesn't change the fact that between the two boxes there's a 66% chance one has fire.
Edit- If you were shown a skull box and then the two remaining boxes were shuffled then you would have a 50/50 shot.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
We have not been shown that the others know he played in the NFL. We’ve only seen him tell them he played college football.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Until the episode with the Shan boot, he hadn’t been shown doing much in the way of heavy strategy, more often letting Deshawn and Shan take the lead on that. And everyone seems to like him. So his threat level is lower than people like Deshawn and Ricard, because modern juries like strategic leaders, and than Xander, who has an idol and a compelling underdog story to tell the jury.
BigJim®
Footballguy
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jhib
Footballguy
It does, which is the one thing that tends to convince people even after they argue that it doesn't make sense.
There are simulators online like this one where you can try it out.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I thought I remembered it being NFL. Maybe he just said "football" and I took it as NFL?
BigJim®
Footballguy
I don’t know, I picked one, retained it, and won a car (avoided a goat). I’m quitting while I’m ahead and claiming lies, dam lies, statistics.
jhib
Footballguy
I don’t know, I picked one, retained it, and won a car (avoided a goat). I’m quitting while I’m ahead and claiming lies, dam lies, statistics.
And if you add that trial to the one in the episode, it's 2-0 in favor of keeping it. I'm pretty sure that seals the deal.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
He’s brought up the NFL in confessionals, but of course the other players don’t see those until air.
In the first episode, when he went to Prisoners Dilemma Island with JD and Xander, he was asked if he played football and he said he played in college.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
But he talked about football in some response to a question by Jeff in front of everyone.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Well, all seriousness, if these odds are correct it is interesting. During the show I was thinking “wow, giving the guy 33% odds of surviving is harsh.” Executed this way I guess the 1% statistics nerds in the world actually get a 66% of staying alive.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
mr. furley
Footballguy
years ago a lady rolled up to our rummage sale and asked if we would place a hold on a table we were selling. she had to check with her husband and OK the purchase.
cool. no problem. she came back like 30 minutes later with an enormous human being that i recognized as a former medium-term Packers player.
they asked if i could help offload the table if they bought it. sure thing.
drove to their place, which was around the corner from the house i grew up in.. a not great neighborhood, in the shoddiest house on the block.
looks like Danny (based on the wedding pics alone, i guess) is doing OK, but even former NFL players could use the $1 mil it seems.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Apparently a stunningly large number of former NFL players are broke within a few years after their career ends.
Mile High
Footballguy
He was a undrafted FA in 2010. Had a couple of decent years playing on special teams. Spent 4 years before his career ended. Was never in line for the big bucks. ETA: Reportedly he did make 3.6 million so not like he's poor.
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rick6668
Footballguy
The best explanation I've seen that helps you understand is using a deck of cards. The goal is to pick the Aces of spades from a deck of cards. Let's pick a card from the deck and don't look at it. Now of the remaining 51 cards, 50 are turned over and revealed to not be the Ace of spades. There is now the card you chose and one remaining card left. Which is more likely to be the Ace of spades? Is it a 50/50 chance your original card is the Ace of Spades?
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
In this SI story from 2009, they cited a figure of 78% of NFL players being broke or in financial distress within 2 years of retirement:
https://vault.si.com/.amp/vault/2009/03/23/how-and-why-athletes-go-broke
The number might be lower now because the league instituted fiscal responsibility training, but it’s still a problem.
It seems like Danny managed his money well, and he has a steady job (he runs the Cowboys’ youth football program), but that is still not the case for a lot of players.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I mean, that is my instinct... that the odds decrease that the Ace is in the deck, and increase that I'm holding it, as new facts arise - which in your example leads to eventual 50/50. I always thought people should keep their case on deal or no deal under that logic... guess I was wrong.
I think where people get confused is that if you set it up differently and took those 50 non Ace of
cards away first, then the pick is 50-50. It’s hard to separate the two cases because they feel the same just that the pick is done before the takeaway.Deal or No Deal is completely different, since the contestant is the one picking which suitcase to reveal. When they get down to two cases, it truly is 50:50 as to whether their case has the million dollars, or the one remaining case does.
Plus it’s probably already at $2.3M due to taxes and that was his income for 6 years. It’s a nice chunk of change but it wouldn’t make winning Survivor non-impactful. I’m sure he isn’t making a ton a year now so if he spent more than he should in the football years, he’s not rich. Now, if he saved well and had it all invested in the market, he should be more comfortable now because 2015-2021 was a nice run. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the lawyers/doctors on the show have more money than Danny because they earned it over a much longer time.
bryhamm
Footballguy
But it's not revealed randomly. Jeff (ie Monty Hall) KNOWS where the winner is. He is going to reveal a non-winner every time.
Think about it with a 1 in 10 shot. You make a choice and have a 10% shot of being right. In there other 9 balls, there is GUARANTEED that at least 8 or them are non-winners. Those 8 are flipped over, leaving one unknown and yours. You still think it is a 50-50 chance that you have the winner?
bryhamm
Footballguy
This is a very good way of thinking about it. This is exactly right. All he has done is remove a known-to-him skull in the first reveal. He does this because he KNOWS where the fire is. He is ALWAYS going to remove a skull.
Jayrok
Footballguy
I understand the logic behind the Monty Hall problem and how it relates to the first choice, but I'm with you in that at the end of the exchange it always ends up a 50/50 choice (odds <> choice?). Jeff/Monty is not going to remove the fire box if you've already selected a skull. He will always leave the fire box whether you selected it or not. So regardless of what you first select, you will end up selecting from 2 boxes, 1 winner and 1 loser.
Odds of selecting right at the beginning is 33%. But you might as well be selecting from 2 boxes since one of the skull boxes is going to be removed.
So the question is do you switch or stay. Odds are better statistically if you switch, but the choice is always going to be 50/50. Most of us would have switched and would have gone home.
* I had to go back and swap Monty Python to Hall. The Monty Python problem is another kettle of fish.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Yes, though most people cast are under 40, and many of the lawyers/doctors in their 20s and 30s haven’t made their big money yet.
That being said, one reason there was no move to take out Mike White in the post merge of S37 was because most of the players figured the jury wouldn’t award the win to someone already known to be a millionaire. Especially on a season called David vs. Goliath.
Oh yeah, I wasn’t talking about the med school/just out of school folks, just the older lawyers and doctors (and others) who have made similar amounts in 10-20 years. That said I believe most of the established lawyers tend to argue their asses off the show way earlier than the final tribal. I do remember a couple doctors making it far but hard to remember.
Maelstrom
Footballguy
Re: Monty Hall problem, lots of information in the wikipedia entry, from the simple methods for proving it is 67% to the math behind it and everything in between.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
bryhamm
Footballguy
You are contradicting yourself. If the odds are 50/50, then they can't be "better statistically if you switch"
bryhamm
Footballguy
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Brad Culpepper is both a wealthy lawyer and a former NFL player. He made it to the end of Game Changers, but it was portrayed that he lost because of a poor social game, not because of his wealth.
Nick Wilson won as a lawyer — but he was a young public defender, which is a much different beast.
But yeah, most white collar high earner types rub people the wrong way and get booted before the end.
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