Bell said that he needs to have a more consistent work ethic to be the workhorse. He said that the coaches felt he ran out of gas in the later stages of the game and that he needs to work harder on his conditioning and nutrition. He said that he's been paying more attention to his diet and working hard at conditioning. Good to see that he owned up to what he needs to do. I don't know if stamina is the only factor keeping the Denver coaches from giving him 25+ carries or if they're just trying to appease him but it's something to keep an eye on.
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Tatum Bell on Sirius Radio (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JSUF
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Noahs Troopers
Footballguy
Fluff Piece.
This posting just moved Tatum Bell up ten spots in my RB rankings. That is what I like to hear from second-year rooks, especailly ones positioning for the move to #1 behind a great O-Line. "Coach gives me a hard time and he's right. I work now."
Shades of Larry "Diapers" Johnson, anyone?
Shades of Larry "Diapers" Johnson, anyone?
SSOG
Moderator
Ummm... no? Johnson whined about Vermeil saying he needed to take the diapers off. He didn't own up to it.Also, Bell can say all he wants, but until he starts doing it on the field, it doesn't mean a thing. I agree that he's got the right attitude, but he's always had the right attitude in Denver. Attitude was never his problem.
Wouldn't you say this situation is setting itself up perfectly for Bell though. If they really do not trade/sign another running back, Skeletor is infamous for setting up running back situations that never actually happen. At this time last year very few saw that Mike Anderson would be the primary guy. I am about as big of a Dayne supporter as there is, but something tells me that Bell is being set up for a huge year next year. I think either Dayne fails early, or Bell comes out so strong that no one will be able to take the job from him. Regardless, in my PPR league last year Bell ended up 24th, making him a #2 running back in a start 3 league. With Anderson leaving, I think Bell is being severly underrated. Probably because so many of us have been burned by him in the past.
SSOG
Moderator
I would not say that this situation is setting itself up perfectly for Bell. I would not say that Shanny is infamous for "setting up running back situations that never actually happen". If few people thought that Mike Anderson would be the primary guy this time last year, then it's their own fault, because at this time last year Anderson was #1 on the depth chart, and Shanny was saying things like "We really think that Anderson can carry the load for us" and "Anderson is not just #1 out of deference to his veteran status".I acknowledge that it's possible that Bell will come out so strong that he'd win the job outright, but he's had two years to do so and he hasn't done it yet. He couldn't outperform Dayne last season (which is why Dayne is currently the #1), and I haven't seen anything yet to indicate that he'll be able to this season.
I definitely think that a strong arguement could be made that Bell is being underrated at the moment. Personally, I think he's being rated pretty accurately. He finished last year at #24, I expect a slight decline in his numbers, and he's currently being drafted as RB#26. I'd say that's pretty much right on. On the one hand, he's less consistant than the other RBs who will finish around him in scoring... but on the other hand, he has a much higher upside than any of the RBs that are being drafted around him. A very good risk/reward play.
lord_helmet
Footballguy
must be that run against Dallas
lord_helmet
Footballguy
You must hold a copy of the current depth chart, can we get a link please ? I would think that the job is there to be won in camp, but maybe thats just me. Is all this based on the comments by Sundquist a couple of weeks ago, or is it pure speculation ?
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Without an updated depth chart I don't know how your aware of this info.http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=134
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
SSOG, I agree with most of what you say, and maybe I define the word "outperform" differently than you do, but this data clearly shows the Tatum
Dayne in basically every statistical measure last season.
Code:
Year Team G GS Att Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ FD Dayne 2005 Denver Broncos 10 0 53 270 5.1 55 1 1 14 Bell 2005 Denver Broncos 15 1 173 921 5.3 68 8 10 41
Alluro
Footballguy
Tatum bell is a michael bennett redux with slightly more power...I may be in the minority, but I feel even if Ron Dayne fails to win the job (and given his history it's very possible - although i don't think he will), one of the other backs whether it be Mike Bell, Cedric Cobbs, or Cecil Sapp will carry the load for the broncos. Heck, even if Tatum Bell miraculously wins the job he's a lock to get injured as he was hurt EVERY year at oklahoma, and every year in the NFL. His body can't take the pounding of a feature running back. The current change of pace role he's in is perfect for him.
When you combine his propensity for injury, with his lack of natural running instincts(straight line speed runner), his inability to pass protect, and his mediocre at best receiving skills (YES! Dayne has better hands than Bell), I think a lot of those Bell owners are setting themselves up for disappointment again.
If you just let the readers of Fantasy Football Index take him, you'll save yourself a major headache. My money is on the "The Great Dayne"
When you combine his propensity for injury, with his lack of natural running instincts(straight line speed runner), his inability to pass protect, and his mediocre at best receiving skills (YES! Dayne has better hands than Bell), I think a lot of those Bell owners are setting themselves up for disappointment again.
If you just let the readers of Fantasy Football Index take him, you'll save yourself a major headache. My money is on the "The Great Dayne"
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'd counter with Ron Dayne being a TJ Duckett redux without as much speed. We can make these comparisons all day long and they don't mean much. No two people are alike. I think you hit on the biggest thing holding Tatum back and that's his ability to do the "other" things like pass protection and receive. Those are teachable things though and he might be able to improve if he wants to.
bueno
In a class by himself
Ourlads.com seems to call it right often. I tend to pay attention to them more than official pronouncements from the coaching staff.
SSOG
Moderator
Incorrect. I haven't had any fantasy drafts at this point in time, and I don't have any dynasty leagues.As far as the updated depth chart... there ARE no updated depth charts. Sundquist and Shanny have said that Dayne will be playing the role of Anderson this season. That's good enough for me.Dayne's on his roster and Bell's not. C'mon, you know how it works.
Doubt Shanahan if you want. As I seem to recall, that was how people got into trouble last year, letting Anderson slide to the 16th despite the fact that Shanahan said he was the starting RB.
Not every statistical measure.http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.phpSSOG, I agree with most of what you say, and maybe I define the word "outperform" differently than you do, but this data clearly shows the Tatum
Year Team G GS Att Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ FD Dayne 2005 Denver Broncos 10 0 53 270 5.1 55 1 1 14 Bell 2005 Denver Broncos 15 1 173 921 5.3 68 8 10 41
Tatum Bell- 6.7% DVOA
Ron Dayne- 25.3% DVOA
Tatum Bell- 3 fumbles
Ron Dayne- 0 fumbles
Tatum Bell- 43% success rate
Ron Dayne- 60% success rate.
The success rate is the big one. Denver's offense is all about moving the chains, and success rate is a direct measure of an RB's ability to move the chains.
Denver's offense isn't based on the homerun threat from the running game. It's based on consistant yardage and moving the chains. Dayne moved the chains better last season than Bell did.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
FixedBell had 41-1st downs and 8 TDs on 173 carries. That would make it 49/173 or 28.3 % of his carries resulted in a 1st or a TD.
Dayne had 14-1st downs and 1 TD on 53 attempts. So 15/53 or 28.3 % of his carries resulted in a 1st or a TD.
Some of us have our doubts whether Dayne is equivalant to Anderson, especially as a power runner.
SSOG
Moderator
Moving the chains isn't just converting first downs... it's also consistantly getting positive yardage on first and second downs. The ability to convert 3rd-and-2 at a 100% rate doesn't mean squat if you only average 2 yards per carry on the first two downs, since you'll never be *IN* 3rd-and-2.There's a statistic called "Success Rate" that measures how often an RB gains 40% of the necessary yardage on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. Last season, Tatum Bell's success rate was 43%, good enough for 29th in the league. Anderson's success rate was 55%, good enough for second in the league (behind Edgerrin James). Ron Dayne didn't have enough carries to qualify for ranking... but his success rate was 60%, which would have been second in the NFL. It was better than Anderson's, and almost 50% better than Tatum Bell's.
Here's an incredible stat for you. Ron Dayne had 5 carries last season that went for 0 or negative yardage. 3 for negative yardage, 2 for 0 yards. Wrap your head around that for a second.
Dayne doesn't have to be the equivalent to Anderson as a power runner, either. He just has to be better than Bell and Cobbs.
One last point that should be made... it's easy to forget, but a lot of people were actually criticising Mike Anderson early last season, saying he wasn't a good enough power runner and would lose the job. They thought he might not be able to cut it in short yardage situations, because he had a couple of notable failures in the first couple of weeks.
lord_helmet
Footballguy
I still haven't heard Shanny naming a starter, only recent comment I have heard is that he'd "love to give Bell the ball more"
SSOG
Moderator
Not just the second half of games... the second half of the season. He only cracked 5 ypc ONCE in the second half of last year.Bell claims that he was struggling through injury at the time. I think that's just as damning. Anderson got injured in week 1, was slightly limited in week 2, and then played at full strength for the rest of the season, despite still having the effects of the injury for weeks after that. He got several other minor injuries during the year, and his performance never suffered, and he always made it back extremely quickly. I don't think Shanny wants someone whose production disappears the second he gets nicked up.
From Ted Sundquist: "You rank second in the NFL in rushing; you've got two backs that stayed healthy throughout the year; you have the speed/breakaway guy (Bell) who seems to be at his best when he carries the ball one to 10 times, and then you've got the power guy on the inside, and Ron will fill that role this year in place of Mike Anderson."There have been other quotes to the same effect- Bell's carries will be limited, Dayne's will not- but I don't feel like tracking them all down.
lord_helmet
Footballguy
Thats the only official comment I have seen as well, but thats their GM not Shanny. You posted a couple of times that Shanny said Dayne was the starter, but I take it thats not the case ?
SSOG
Moderator
Simple logic. Shanahan says that Tatum Bell will get something like 10-12 carries a game... which means either you project the Broncos RBs to only have less than 24 rushing attempts per game (under 384 total carries), or you project that somebody other than Tatum Bell is going to be getting the majority of the carries.For the record, Denver's RBs had 474 carries last season, 459 the year before, and 472 the year before that.
If you're waiting for Shanahan to come out and say in no uncertain terms "Ron Dayne will be the starting running back of the 2006 Denver Broncos", then you will have to wait until preseason. With that said, everything he has said and done has made it absolutely clear that Dayne will be the starter. He said resigning Dayne was one of their highest priorities this offseason. He let Anderson go. He and Sundquist said that Dayne will be stepping into the Anderson role. He and Sundquist said that Bell's carries will be limited.
This isn't just my skewed interpretation of the events, either. Allow me to direct you to the interview with Jeff Legwold, who is widely considered the most knowledgeable and accurate Broncos reporter in Denver.
Here's the link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=246203
Regarding Ron Dayne:
Regarding Bell, Legwold had this to say:
When asked if Cedric Cobbs will have any role in the running game, Legwold responded:
lord_helmet
Footballguy
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
SSOG, can you provide a formula for "Success Rate"? Also, since Dayne did not run enough to be represented accurately by "Success Rate", shouldn't we discount this statistic in speculating a starter? Great debate and views here!
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=254&cat=11Dayne came from a limited sample size (20-74 carries), and even FO recognizes this by not grouping him with the main backs.
One thing we can say about Bell is that he had somewhat significant carries, and ranked 29th in success rate. Mike Anderson was 2nd. Droughns was 13th the year before (Bell was 2nd and just barely made the 75 minimum carry cutoff).
This seems to somewhat confirm that Bell is much better with a limited workload. I don't think Bell would keep the job long being 29th in success rate.
We don't know much about Dayne in Denver other than he was good with a limited workload... which is more than you can say bout Dayne with NYG.
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mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Thanks! Once again, KnowledgeReignsSupreme!
sholditch
Footballguy
Nice postings here. Really glad I have started frequenting the forums here. Great info. Need to read some of these articles but I think the crying elephant has made some really good points. This is basically the same situation as last year, except that Anderson had proven before being named the starter that he could be productive in the NFL as a feature back, while the jury's still out on Dayne. Still, if I had to pick a back that was more like Anderson the choice would be obvious, and it's also obvious that Bell did not do enough last year to show Shanny and the rest of the Denver staff that he can be their guy, even though they seem to have a system that can work for smaller, quicker backs as well (Portis).
SSOG
Moderator
A run is considered "successful" if it gains 40% of the necessary yardage on 1st down, 60% of the necessary yardage on 2nd down, or 100% of the necessary yardage on 3rd or 4th down.For example: 4 yard run on 1st and 10? Successful!
4 yard run on 2nd and 6? Successful!
4 yard run on 3rd and 5? Unsuccessful!
The success rate stat is tracked over at www.footballoutsiders.com . Ron Dayne did not have enough carries to qualify for ranking, but I personally went through all of his game logs and tracked his success rate and got around 60%. While it's dangerous extrapolating from a small sample size, it certainly is a point in Ron Dayne's favor that, in limited action, he was one of the most "successful" RBs in the entire NFL.
Regardless, Ron Dayne's success rate is not why I'm "speculating" that he'll be the starter. The fact that Shanahan, Sundquist, Legwold, and everyone in the know have all confirmed as much is why I'm "speculating" that he'll be a starter. I'm just looking at his success rate as a statistic that suggests he might succeed more in Denver than he did in New York.
Haha, the crying elephant! I love it.
Anyway, it's dangerous comparing Bell to Portis. Portis was far shiftier than Bell, and he also had a talent that Bell lacks. Portis was a phenominal between-the-tackles runner, perhaps the best in Denver since Terrell Davis. While most between-the-tackles runners make their mark with strength, Portis's success stemmed from the fact that he could identify and hit the smallest holes I have ever seen a back hit. He'd see something too small to even be rightly called a "crease", and he'd tuck his body up and blast through it for positive yardage. It was uncanny. Bell lacks that ability, and as a result, he's lacking when running between the tackles.Seriously, while home-run threat is a very nice attribute to have, Denver backs make their money between the tackles.
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