TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (1 Viewer)

[menobrown]

I disagree on the fantasy community getting too enamored of him. It was justified IMO. The OC change and some injuries changed things, but before those things happened that no one could predict I think his play on the field justified every bit of it.

Perhaps biggest change IMO, which seemed to be pointed out by many fantasy pundits, would be the return of Knox. That has resulted in a smaller snap count, particularly given Knox’s prowess as a run blocker as the team has become more run heavy.

For Kincaid’s fantasy prospects, I agree that hoping that Brady goes elsewhere.

Not sure Knox had that much of an impact.

His snap share actually started regressing when Morris returned so the presence of a better blocking TE did impact his snap count, but that was starting to happen before Knox returned, though it did nosedive the last two weeks for sure.

But

His route participation has remained high, at least before last nights games which I don't have data on.

Morris and Knox returning impacted his snaps, discounting last nights game I don't have info on it however has had a very minor impact on his route participaton which is more key to me then snaps.

Diggs declined as well,. Josh Allen has only attempted 36 passes the last two weeks. I think a lot of people will assume Knox returning was the issue but I think it was a small part of a bigger picture of things going on.

 

[zamboni]

Diggs declined as well,. Josh Allen has only attempted 36 passes the last two weeks. I think a lot of people will assume Knox returning was the issue but I think it was a small part of a bigger picture of things going on.

Fully agree on this. There’s a lot more going on in the passing offense well beyond Kincaid/Diggs. And if it wasn’t for Allen’s rushing production, people would be up in arms about his fantasy stats as well lately.

 

[zamboni]

Unless they move up for one of the big 3 WRs, that is.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Hoping the Diggs news means more targets beyond the sticks in '24.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Kincaid seemed to have earned Allen’s trust early and that will only continue to improve. His hands are rock solid and he seems to adjust to broken plays really well. I have to imagine they will give him more shots down the field, here is to hoping they develop a Mahomes/Kelce-like connection.

 

[travdogg]

Unless they move up for one of the big 3 WRs, that is.

Kind of expecting 1st and 2nd round WR picks from Buffalo.

That said, Kincaid was on the rise regardless, and rookies will likely not be as impactful as Diggs.

Kincaid is very much a potential top-5 TE, and truthfully, the ceiling is as high as any TE. TE1 overall isn't off the table.

 

[The Duff Man]

They didn’t use him much on deeper routes, I can see OC Brady doing that with a full off season to put in his system.

 

[travdogg]

Another thing of note, I did a deep dive on Josh Allen, watching every single throw he made, the majority of Allen's turnovers came on throws to Davis, Diggs, or Knox. When he threw to Kincaid, Shakir, or RBs his efficiency was higher. I wonder if Buffalo saw that, and that's another reason Diggs and Davis are gone.

 

[Faust]

Biggest winner from Stefon Diggs trade could end up being Josh Allen’s new favorite weapon for Bills

 

[BigAl21]

Has his value gotten just too much to try and acquire at this point?
FFPC, 1 QB is he really worth the 1.07 and future late 1st? Seems pricey

 

[Dez]

Has his value gotten just too much to try and acquire at this point?
FFPC, 1 QB is he really worth the 1.07 and future late 1st? Seems pricey

Startup ADP currently 2.09

 

[zamboni]

Have to think it's wheels up for Kincaid with the Bills trading down. While there are several left, not sure anyone will have an immediate impact to derail Kincaid.

 

[menobrown]

Have to think it's wheels up for Kincaid with the Bills trading down. While there are several left, not sure anyone will have an immediate impact to derail Kincaid.

My guess is they will draft at least two WR's and I'm hoping the top one is more of a speed guy who can open up things and not profile as a high volume player.

AD Mitchel and Troy Franklin would be players I'd be happy seeing them draft. McConkey and Keon Coleman would not be as ideal, especially if they view them as primarily slot guys.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Have to think it's wheels up for Kincaid with the Bills trading down. While there are several left, not sure anyone will have an immediate impact to derail Kincaid.

You still need threats to take away coverage and keep defenses honest. One would have to think the next pick is receiver which I think is actually good for Kincaid. I would not rule out a trade yet either, unless the Bill’s really think highly of the receivers that remain (which them trading down tells me they do not absolutely love anyone enough to pick them where they were). They have to have something up there sleeve, hard to believe they do not realize their window is now.

 

[Faust]

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid Says Chemistry With QB Josh Allen 'Still a Work in Progress'

 

[jm192]

I don't have a lot of confidence in Coleman ever being a star, let alone year 1.

Diggs left a ton of targets on the table. I think they're going to pepper Kincaid with those targets. He'll likely be the #1 guy in a Josh Allen offense for years. I'm currently putting him at TE4 ahead of McBride.

LaPorta is great, and I have him ranked higher going into this year. But I think Kincaid could surpass him and be the TE1 for future years. I'm not bullish enough for 2024 to take Kincaid as the #1 or 2 TE. But I think the upside is absurd.

 

[Payne]

I don't have a lot of confidence in Coleman ever being a star, let alone year 1.

Diggs left a ton of targets on the table. I think they're going to pepper Kincaid with those targets. He'll likely be the #1 guy in a Josh Allen offense for years. I'm currently putting him at TE4 ahead of McBride.

LaPorta is great, and I have him ranked higher going into this year. But I think Kincaid could surpass him and be the TE1 for future years. I'm not bullish enough for 2024 to take Kincaid as the #1 or 2 TE. But I think the upside is absurd.

Agree.

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
"It’s just one day of training camp, but both (Keon) Coleman and (Dalton) Kincaid, perhaps the two most important members of the Bills’ passing game, are already starting to shine."

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[King of the Jungle]

Kincaid is going to get pelted with targets this year, I just hope they start giving him more intermediate opportunities.

 

[Faust]

David J. Gautieri
IDK why we’re still having conversations about whether Dalton Kincaid “is good.”

His career collegiate YPRR (2.32) was elite & just as good as McBride’s (2.11), Pitts’ (2.36), Andrews’ (2.46), LaPorta’s (1.89).

He had the 2nd highest collegiate Dominator Rating (34.1%) of any Top-15 Dynasty TE (behind only Trey McBride).

He was a RD1 NFL Draft pick.

He posted the 4th most receptions (73) for a rookie TE in NFL HISTORY.

You’re damn right he’s good.

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[kyoun1e]

Couple of things:

1) Think Kincaid's ADP is going to rise this summer into a place where I start getting uncomfortable, and
2) Rumors of D. Knox's death have been greatly exaggerated and he will aggravate Kinkaid owners who draft him as high as the 4th round in the early going.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Couple of things:

1) Think Kincaid's ADP is going to rise this summer into a place where I start getting uncomfortable, and
2) Rumors of D. Knox's death have been greatly exaggerated and he will aggravate Kinkaid owners who draft him as high as the 4th round in the early going.

They have pretty distinct roles. Kincaid’s alignment was 60.6% in the slot and 18.5% split outside. They’ve been talking about wanting to increase his big slot role.

Knox inline snap % was twice as high as Kincaid, and I expect the disparity to be greater.

In terms of talent, name any statistical metric and Kincaid outperforms Knox, across the board.

Catch % 80.2-63.2
route % 93.6-85.8
YRR 1.51-0.73
CTC 5/9-0/6
MTF 10-1
Drop % 4.7-14.2

 

[zamboni]

Couple of things:

1) Think Kincaid's ADP is going to rise this summer into a place where I start getting uncomfortable, and
2) Rumors of D. Knox's death have been greatly exaggerated and he will aggravate Kinkaid owners who draft him as high as the 4th round in the early going.

They have pretty distinct roles. Kincaid’s alignment was 60.6% in the slot and 18.5% split outside. They’ve been talking about wanting to increase his big slot role.

Knox inline snap % was twice as high as Kincaid, and I expect the disparity to be greater.

In terms of talent, name any statistical metric and Kincaid outperforms Knox, across the board.

Catch % 80.2-63.2
route % 93.6-85.8
YRR 1.51-0.73
CTC 5/9-0/6
MTF 10-1
Drop % 4.7-14.2

Knox will probably steal some red zone looks, as he's pretty solid there, but the presence of Knox isn't what would shy me away from Kincaid. The spreading around to Samuel, Shakir and (if he puts it together early) Coleman might be more of a concern, but Kincaid should gobble up targets regardless here.

 

[Scoresman]

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[Payne]

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Kincaid is too talented. Get him while you can.

 

[Faust]

Bills 'savvy' first-round tight end progressing further after 'great start'

 

[Faust]

@BuffaloBills
DK making plays.

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[Scoresman]

Knox played 12 games last year. Prorating both to 17 games, the target split between him and Kincaid was 96/51 in favor of Kincaid.

The TD split was even between them despite Kincaid playing more games.

Looks like there's room for both.

 

[zamboni]

@BuffaloBills
DK making plays.

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Love Knox's reaction there to his younger counterpart. Seems like a good dude/teammate.

 

[dipandglide]

Kincaid has one of the safest floors and as high a ceiling as any TE. Yes, please.

 

[Ilov80s]

Kincaid has one of the safest floors and as high a ceiling as any TE. Yes, please.

Big Hit, Small Miss player right here. I can absolutely see someone having him ranked ahead of even Kelce and Andrews.

 

[FarFromHome]

I'm planting my flag on this guy. Reaching early on his ADP to land him. Elite QB. Targets are gonna be there. Hopefully he emerges as a red zone threat. Would love a handful of 5 yard tds. I see them extending his routes down field a bit. Imo

 

[zamboni]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

 

[FarFromHome]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

Based on upside I got them both in same tier. Damn close. Can see a solid debate between the two. Id personally take Kincaid.

 

[-OZ-]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

Based on upside I got them both in same tier. Damn close. Can see a solid debate between the two. Id personally take Kincaid.

I like Kincaid more but a lot of that is consistency in coaching, Pitts could be higher. IMO, those two and Bowers could be considered equal. (In dynasty, for a contender)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

Who is the starting QB in Atlanta? Did they show confidence in that guy when they took Penix No 8 overall, who's running the ship in ATL?
What kind of offense are they going to run in ATL?
Atlanta has several/many skill position players that were taken in the 1st Rd, some higher than others but all of them were Top 20 picks IIRC, Top 5-10 even for a couple of them.

What questions does anyone have about the coaching, QB and likely game plan for Buffalo?
The comparison starts with a lot of questions surrounding one team/offense vs I know what I'm getting with Josh Allen running the ship
WHat if Cousins is fighting for his life as a starter in Atlanta come Week 6-7? With Penix looming in the shadows?
I have a lot of uneasy thoughts and questions with the Falcons

 

[Scoresman]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

Who is the starting QB in Atlanta? Did they show confidence in that guy when they took Penix No 8 overall, who's running the ship in ATL?
What kind of offense are they going to run in ATL?
Atlanta has several/many skill position players that were taken in the 1st Rd, some higher than others but all of them were Top 20 picks IIRC, Top 5-10 even for a couple of them.

What questions does anyone have about the coaching, QB and likely game plan for Buffalo?
The comparison starts with a lot of questions surrounding one team/offense vs I know what I'm getting with Josh Allen running the ship
WHat if Cousins is fighting for his life as a starter in Atlanta come Week 6-7? With Penix looming in the shadows?
I have a lot of uneasy thoughts and questions with the Falcons

I like the Falcons but I agree that Kincaid is my pick here. I originally was worried about Knox, but then I saw that he can be a part pf the equation without hurting Kincaid's numbers much. Knox had almost 40 targets last year and Kincaid still did well. And this year, with worse receivers, Allen should rely on his TEs at least as much as last year.

I do think Pitts has a slightly higher ceiling, but Kincaid's solid floor is worth too much.

 

[Payne]

Knox played 12 games last year. Prorating both to 17 games, the target split between him and Kincaid was 96/51 in favor of Kincaid.

The TD split was even between them despite Kincaid playing more games.

Looks like there's room for both.

Sure.

But let's not forget Kincaid was a rookie. Guys named Diggs and Davis were on the team.
Those guys are gone.

Kincaid went from sharing the TE role as maybe the 3rd option to possibly the #1 option for an elite QB.

We have seen what Knox can do in this offense. We have yet to see what Kincaid can do.
And if Buffalo was content with Knox, why draft Kincaid in the 1st round?

He is more talented than LaPorta and Sam is the #2 option in Detroit behind St. Brown and the RB's.

Sky is the limit for this kid.

 

[Scoresman]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

Who is the starting QB in Atlanta? Did they show confidence in that guy when they took Penix No 8 overall, who's running the ship in ATL?
What kind of offense are they going to run in ATL?
Atlanta has several/many skill position players that were taken in the 1st Rd, some higher than others but all of them were Top 20 picks IIRC, Top 5-10 even for a couple of them.

What questions does anyone have about the coaching, QB and likely game plan for Buffalo?
The comparison starts with a lot of questions surrounding one team/offense vs I know what I'm getting with Josh Allen running the ship
WHat if Cousins is fighting for his life as a starter in Atlanta come Week 6-7? With Penix looming in the shadows?
I have a lot of uneasy thoughts and questions with the Falcons

On a side note, I don't think their pick of Penix had anything to do with lack of confidence in Cousins this year. I think we may look back on it as a good move. The Falcons know 2 things about next year's draft. 1) they won't have a high enough draft pick to pick a QB, and 2) next year's draft is expected to be light on good QBs. So they were potentially looking at 2 years minimum for them to be able to draft their future QB. The Packers did this with Love while Rodgers was still playing and it worked very well.

 

[FarFromHome]

Knox played 12 games last year. Prorating both to 17 games, the target split between him and Kincaid was 96/51 in favor of Kincaid.

The TD split was even between them despite Kincaid playing more games.

Looks like there's room for both.

Sure.

But let's not forget Kincaid was a rookie. Guys named Diggs and Davis were on the team.
Those guys are gone.

Kincaid went from sharing the TE role as maybe the 3rd option to possibly the #1 option for an elite QB.

We have seen what Knox can do in this offense. We have yet to see what Kincaid can do.
And if Buffalo was content with Knox, why draft Kincaid in the 1st round?

He is more talented than LaPorta and Sam is the #2 option in Detroit behind St. Brown and the RB's.

Sky is the limit for this kid.

Yep. Watching his snaps last year you can just see this kid is gonna be elite. It's gonna be all about the targets and how he is used.

 

[bluemanfoo]

His ADP is 53 and the hype train is still increasing. You guys don't think that is risky for a guy that was TE11 in PPR and TE16 in standard last year. And being the sole receiving threat that defenses account for, may make it more difficult, as seen from Kelce/Mahomes last year. Plus they will probably run the ball more. And Knox will likely get his fair share of snaps. Personally, I don't like all the hype built into his ADP. Most players don't live up to this amount of hype for various reasons.

 

[finfansteve]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

Based on upside I got them both in same tier. Damn close. Can see a solid debate between the two. Id personally take Kincaid.

I like Kincaid more but a lot of that is consistency in coaching, Pitts could be higher. IMO, those two and Bowers could be considered equal. (In dynasty, for a contender)

I might be in this predicament on draft day. I already have pitts and Kincaid on my keeper roster and am pondering what to do at 1.05 if bowers is still on the board. I just want one guy to be that write in every week guy and I might not stop until I think I have him which requires me considering bowers at 1.05 if he’s still there but if one of pitts or Kincaid makes me think they could be the guy then I’ll use that pick on another position.
It’s all up in the air right now

 

[osubuckeyeman]

The talent is there, which is the most essential part of the equation for me. His opportunity should produce more target share. Tight Ends work the seams and middle of the field, leading to bigger hits. He took some big hits last season, and health can be an issue for anyone at any point, but with bigger hits come more injury potential. He had pretty good numbers, and I would expect that to go up slightly, but I would not think there would be a huge spike. They have added pieces to replace what they lost in the wr room. Curtis Samuel is going to eat if he can stay healthy himself. I'm optimistic but not over the top about what his numbers will look like. He is fun to watch, though, for sure.

 

[Faust]

Sal Capaccio
So much is made of Dalton Kincaid‘s hands, and they are great. But early in 11-on-11 he took a short pass and got upfield really quickly. His speed and burst was very noticeable.

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[Winning IS Everything]

Not to make this an AC question (that forum is pretty scant these days), but how do you value Kincaid versus Pitts?

(redraft or dynasty, doesn't matter)

Need to declare my keepers (we keep 8) and the last one is deciding between Kincaid and Pitts. Both have considerable upside, but I think Kincaid is a safer play.

Based on upside I got them both in same tier. Damn close. Can see a solid debate between the two. Id personally take Kincaid.

I like Kincaid more but a lot of that is consistency in coaching, Pitts could be higher. IMO, those two and Bowers could be considered equal. (In dynasty, for a contender)

I might be in this predicament on draft day. I already have pitts and Kincaid on my keeper roster and am pondering what to do at 1.05 if bowers is still on the board. I just want one guy to be that write in every week guy and I might not stop until I think I have him which requires me considering bowers at 1.05 if he’s still there but if one of pitts or Kincaid makes me think they could be the guy then I’ll use that pick on another position.
It’s all up in the air right now

If you feel Bowers is the BPA you take him. I had Kelce last year and still took McBride and LaPorta. You can always trade from a position of strength later. I moved Kelce in a deal that netted Amon Ra.

 

[Payne]

I live in SE Michigan and here is what I don't understand.

Kincaid is more talented than LaPorta.

LaPorta has to share with. St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery and Williams.
But people are hesitant to move Kincaid up because of Knox? Kincaid is the #1.

LaPorta has Goff throwing him the ball. I love Goff, but...
Allen is elite

Yet LaPorta is #1 or #2 in every set of rankings you can view while Kincaid is almost always between 5-8.
I honestly think FBG has him higher than most other websites at #4.

Kincaid has everything needed to be the #1 TE in fantasy.
I absolutely understand the arguments for Kelce and LaPorta, but I'll take Kincaid over McBride, Andrews, Engram, etc all day.
The upside cannot and should not be ignored.

 

[FarFromHome]

I live in SE Michigan and here is what I don't understand.

Kincaid is more talented than LaPorta.

LaPorta has to share with. St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery and Williams.
But people are hesitant to move Kincaid up because of Knox? Kincaid is the #1.

LaPorta has Goff throwing him the ball. I love Goff, but...
Allen is elite

Yet LaPorta is #1 or #2 in every set of rankings you can view while Kincaid is almost always between 5-8.
I honestly think FBG has him higher than most other websites at #4.

Kincaid has everything needed to be the #1 TE in fantasy.
I absolutely understand the arguments for Kelce and LaPorta, but I'll take Kincaid over McBride, Andrews, Engram, etc all day.
The upside cannot and should not be ignored.

I 100% agree with everything u say. I think the primary reason and key witness testimony for those in agreement with the rankings is simple. Laporta 10 tds. Kincaid 2. If the question is who has a better 2024 i think it's Kincaid for the reasons you mentioned. If the question is who has earned the right to be drafted first out of the two I think it's Laporta. Kincaid a few rounds later all day for me.

 

[zamboni]

I live in SE Michigan and here is what I don't understand.

Kincaid is more talented than LaPorta.

LaPorta has to share with. St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery and Williams.
But people are hesitant to move Kincaid up because of Knox? Kincaid is the #1.

LaPorta has Goff throwing him the ball. I love Goff, but...
Allen is elite

Yet LaPorta is #1 or #2 in every set of rankings you can view while Kincaid is almost always between 5-8.
I honestly think FBG has him higher than most other websites at #4.

Kincaid has everything needed to be the #1 TE in fantasy.
I absolutely understand the arguments for Kelce and LaPorta, but I'll take Kincaid over McBride, Andrews, Engram, etc all day.
The upside cannot and should not be ignored.

Out of curiosity, how do you feel about Kincaid vs Pitts, as inquired above?

 

[TheWinz]

LaPorta has to share with. St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery and Williams.
But people are hesitant to move Kincaid up because of Knox? Kincaid is the #1.

Fun fact - Gronk's best FF year was 2011, when he had career highs in catches (90), yards (1329) and TD's (18). He finished TE1 and it was the best fantasy season ever for a TE. That year, the TE who finished TE3 was Aaron Hernandez. And Welker managed his best season ever the same year, going 122/1569/9.

Kincaid was 2nd to only Diggs last year in BUF targets. He should be the top target this year.

 

[Terpman22]

LaPorta has to share with. St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery and Williams.
But people are hesitant to move Kincaid up because of Knox? Kincaid is the #1.

Fun fact - Gronk's best FF year was 2011, when he had career highs in catches (90), yards (1329) and TD's (18). He finished TE1 and it was the best fantasy season ever for a TE. That year, the TE who finished TE3 was Aaron Hernandez. And Welker managed his best season ever the same year, going 122/1569/9.

Kincaid was 2nd to only Diggs last year in BUF targets. He should be the top target this year.

Great snippet here!

Kincaid, from the mocks I have been seeing/doing is one of my biggest targets in the 4th/5th round this year, pending draft slot. Not alone here thinking he can be a league winner.

My personal projection: 79/1023/8. Gonna be a big time weapon in Buffalo this year without a doubt.