I have Pitts below the guys I mentioned above. Though he is right there. I can't trust him.
Cousins is another year older and coming off an injury. And, like LaPorta, Pitts has London and Bijan. He is probably 3rd in the pecking order.
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TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I have Pitts below the guys I mentioned above. Though he is right there. I can't trust him.
Cousins is another year older and coming off an injury. And, like LaPorta, Pitts has London and Bijan. He is probably 3rd in the pecking order.
Fair enough
zamboni
Footballguy
To me, that's one risk given the heightened commitment to the run game and if they're not running 12 personnel. It's possible he comes off the field for more plays than we'd like in favor of Knox, but I think he'll still be targeted plenty.
I like Kincaid a ton, but I have to disagree with 2 points here.
#1-Kincaid is more talented than LaPorta. Is he? I mean, he was drafted higher, but LaPorta sure looked great as a rookie, and its not like there is a good reason his production comes down. The guys who have had big years at TE at LaPorta's age have all maintained elite TE play throughout their careers, with the only exception being Aaron Hernandez who obviously doesn't count. The other names are Gronk, Kittle, Graham, and Andrews.
#2-Kincaid has more upside than Andrews. I think Mark Andrews is being a little underrated. He's still an elite TE, he just got injured. He was TE2 when he went down, and the PA game is likely going to be even more potent with Henry on board. I think we've seen Andrews ceiling be as high as anyone's, and he's not at a point where we need to be downgrading him due to age or anything like that.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree with every word except for the LaPorta being the number 2 option in Detroit. He was last year and is being drafted as such this year. Fade IMO because Jameson Williams is going to eat into target share and it isn't coming out of Amon-Ra's piece. I don't think Kincaid has that issue. Not yet anyway. I do think Curtis Samuel emerges but Kincaid is the CLEAR #1 receiving weapon in Buffalo right now and that is how I have been drafting him. Took him at 2.02 in my Pros vs Joes draft last week as TE2 right after McBride came off at the turn. Took him before Kelce, LaPorta, Andrews, and I have him as a coin flip with McBride at cost.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
yeah I'm with you on all this
barackdhouse
Footballguy
yeah and my thing in these TEP leagues is if I'm drafting from the back of the 1st then I don't want to leave the 2nd round without one. In most instances anyway. Especially BB. And for me I have him and McBride as TE 1 and 2 so I actually don't even mind reaching into the 1st at say 1.10 or 1.11 just to push the board and let me possibly get a RB/WR that falls if the picks on the end take two TES for example. In my Pros vs Joes I took Gibbs at 1.11 but if he had gone at 1.10 instead of Puka, who I do like, I might have taken Kincaid at 1.11 then who knows maybe Puka falls to me at 2.02. and so on.
TLDR if your build calls for a TE why not take your top guy? Regardless of ADP (if it isn't too far - I mean I have Ferguson as sort of just a good of chance as McBride and Kincaid to finish as TE1 but I can get him at least two rounds later)
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Last night's draft I put my money where my mouth is. Took Kincaid 6th round with Andrews, Pitts and Kittle available. I just believe. I honestly think he is gonna lead all tight ends in targets this year. Imo
Deamon
Footballguy
He's ranked/going ahead of those guys in many many drafts now. I'm assuming McBride was gone?
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Yep.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Slot - 60.3%
Wide - 17.6%
Inline - 20.4%
The other Buffalo TEs were inline more than twice as much as Kincaid. He ran 460 routes & stayed in protection 6 times. Knox & the TE3 had 288 routes and pass blocked 31 times.
Apropos of nothing, he was a better run blocker than Knox, especially in Gap schemes. Knox was marginally better on zone blocking runs.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Agreed. He is elite on all levels and minus Gabe and Diggs id assume his share of the offense blows up. Id also assume they start actually game planning to get him the football. After watch most snaps, that just wasn't the case last year. He was just a rookie running his routes.
foxco
Footballguy
I view them as equals personally, but I'm probably in the minority. If I could sell La Porta for Kinkaid and a 2nd I'd be all over it.
I'd much rather have the LaPorta side of that.
I like Kincaid, and Wright is a nice enough prospect though one I think is being a little overrated.
LaPorta however, is an elite player, he's not a projection. He had the best fantasy season of any TE in recent history, and it got better as the year went on. The TEs who did as well as LaPorta did last year at his age is a who's who of stud TEs (and Aaron Hernandez) Gronk, Graham, Kittle, and Andrews.
Chaka
Footballguy
The only problem I have with LaPorta is his epic year was bolstered by 10 TDs. There are very few players I would project with 10 receiving TDs this season. The Lions go in lots of different directions on offense, I could easily see LaPorta in the 5-7 TD range. He is money in the bank to finish as a top TE this season but I think his 120 targets and 10 TDs are towards the high end of his projections considering the Lions didn't lose any meaningful targets to free agency and a healthy, seemingly motivated Jameson Williams is lurking.
Kincaid otoh seems to have a lot of room for growth in the Bills offense. I prefer LaPorta to Kincaid straight up in dynasty and redraft but, in dynasty leagues, the addition of Wright on a team with an aging lead back and lots of room for RBs to eat in Miami... seems like a fair offer to me overall.
Chaka
Footballguy
To be fair, Kincaid probably wouldn't start for the Lions either.
Chaka
Footballguy
It pays better than being a cooler.
What if Kincaid was drafted by the Lions? This conversation might be different.
Look, they are both going to be difference makers. The argument for Kincaid not being drafted higher is......Knox.
Meanwhile, LaPorta has to deal with a wealth of talented players around him and nobody seems to have a problem with him being the #2 TE at worst.
Gorgatron
Footballguy
NFL limits tight ends, two-syllable names max ever since antonio gates retired.
Chaka
Footballguy
I have a problem with the notion of LaPorta finishing as the #2 TE at worst.
No problem thinking of him in the top 5 at worst, but top 2 is easily missable.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Things happen. But most reasonable people would draft Laporta 1st and no later than 3rd TE in redraft. I think I’d take him over Kelce or Andrews but they’re basically equal imo.
I didn't say finishing. I am talking ADP.
Chaka
Footballguy
Okay. I went full stream of consciousness with this one trying to suss out Kincaid's ceiling and floor. It got long.
TL/DR - Kincaid's Ceiling = TE1, Floor = TE7
Also - I am probably a little too optimistic about LaPorta's floor. He is heavily TD dependent. He should see quite a few more RZ targets than Kincaid but it's tough to replicate those TD numbers.
The way I see it is I think LaPorta has a ceiling of TE1 and a floor of TE5 (of course things can go off the rails and he could finish as the #100 TE, who really knows). I see Kincaid with a ceiling of TE1 and a floor of... honestly this is where it gets tough for me. There have been sea changes on offense since Ken Dorsey was replaced mid season. Over the first eight games Josh Allen averaged 271 yards passing and 2.1 TDs per game a of pace 4,601 yards & 36 TDs, which is right on par with his average from the previous three seasons. Over the last nine games with Brady calling the offense, Allen averaged 238 yards passing and 1.3 TDs, a pace of 4,044 yards & 23 TDs.
The Bills offense still runs through Allen. It doesn't seem like they added enough at the RB position to suddenly become a ground'n'pound offense but Brady is still the OC so that should be bit of a concern. An X factor at the very least. We have been focusing on the loss of Diggs & Gabe Davis and their 241 vacated targets, as we should, because Kincaid seems to be the biggest potential beneficiary of those lost targets. But we haven't really talked enough about a possible shift in offensive philosophy carrying over from 2023.
Diggs & Davis averaged 17.2 targets per game over the first eight games. A pace of 291 for the season. Over the last nine games they averaged 11.6 targets per game. A pace of 196 on the season.
Even if the passing pie is much smaller there are still a ton of additional targets to divvy up on the season. We did get a glimpse of how Kincaid's importance increased over the course of last season. He went from 4.9 targets/game over the first eight (pace of 73/season) to 6.3 over the last nine games (pace of 108) and it looks like he may have been limited in a few of those games because he didn't start three of them.
But even with potentially 196 additional targets on the table, how many should we reasonably expect Kincaid to see? If we remove the non starts from the last nine games last year (obviously something was wrong, maybe someone can shed light on the specifics) we see that Kincaid averaged 7.7 targets/game over his last six starts, that's a pace of 131 targets.
In 2023 the most targeted TE in the league was, surprise, Evan Engram with 8.5 targets/game and 130 overall. In 2022 it was Travis Kelce with 9.1/game and 145 overall. 2021 Mark Andrews with 8.6/game and 138 on the season. The high water mark over the last 10 years is Zach Ertz with 156 in 2017. Knowing that, how many targets can we reasonably expect Kincaid to see? I'm thinking 2022 Kelce, with no Tyreek & no Rashee seems like a lofty goal because, great as he is Kelce>Kincaid and Mahomes>Allen and Reid>McDermott/Brady. I would call 145 targets Kincaid's absolute maximum ceiling. I am not willing to project 156 plus without predicting injuries to other Bills receivers. Since Kincaid is just as likely to miss time as any other pass catcher, I'm just not going to try.
Projecting from the best of his performance over the last nine games last year I will give him a ceiling of 82% catch rate & 9.8 yards/reception and 145 targets. So I project his ceiling at a stellar 119 receptions and 1,166 yards. That's eye popping. FTR Travis Kelce has caught 100+ passes three times in his career and maxed out at 110 in 2022. Ertz caught 116 in his 156 target season. So 119 is a lofty projection. But then we get to TDs. Over his last nine games, when he was a bigger part of the offense than Davis and a close 1b to Diggs, Kincaid scores one TD (1). Diggs & Davis combined for four TDs (4). This is where we get into the rub with Kincaid and the Bills offense.
The Bills ranked 7th in pass TDs last year, a number that looks to decline with Brady as the OC and 5th in rush TDs. Over the first eight games the Bills scored 17 pass TDs and 8 rush TDs (season pace of 36 pass TD & 17 rush TD). From weeks 9-17 they had 9 pass TDs & 13 rush TDs (season pace 17 pass TDs & 24.5 rush TDs). I don't know if that will hold but it is a stark contrast that should at least be considered.
So where is Kincaid's floor? Personally I would set a catch rate of 75%, his overall rate from the last nine games last year, about 9 yards/reception (again, this is a floor. His y/r on the season was 9.22) and about 130 targets. Remember defenses will be keying on him a lot more. That gives him a still impressive 98 receptions & 878 yards. That's probably too high on both fronts. As far as TDs go? I hope his floor is five, but it could be less. That would give him roughly 169 points in my league. That would place him as TE6-8.
All that is to say I would project Kincaid's floor as TE7
And this post is a prime example of why the WDIS Thread was unsustainable for me.
Deamon
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
It's the first half of week one.
Deamon
Footballguy
Just shocked he has 1 target.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
In the 80s to the early to mid-90s, as a Colts fan, the three most common statements out of my mouth during a game were, It’s only the first quarter, hold them to a field goal, and I can’t wait until draft day.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Just not involved. Glad I missed him everywhere
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Checks notes....most drafted TE I have in fantasy. Also checks notes...sucks.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Damn. Feels like a solid punch to the gut. Smh
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
This was crazy. Hollins did everything I thought Kincaid would have. Not time to panic...yet.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Week 1. I didn’t watch but I’ll assume the defense keyed on him. Having other receivers to defend might actually help him over the season.
But yeah, today sucked for those who needed him to step up.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
I watched. He didn't seem like a focal point. No one did really other than Coleman on one driver. Kincaid had some one on ones but Allen looked elsewhere. I don't expect this to continue the entire season, but today was frustrating/concerning. My mention of Hollins was his work in the slot/over the middle of the field. With Knox on the field so much, I figured Kincaid would be that type of matchup problem. He probably still will be. Sucks seeing your guy with 1 catch in a game Bills were working from behind though.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It’s ONE game. Pepto works pretty good.
The only consolation I got for people is with two game to go, and a few nice TE's on tap, it's been an epically bad first week for the TE position. This is in general but especially for this being as heralded a group for fantasy as I can recall.
In TEP scoring Kincaid is within 12 points of TE2 who I believe is Foster Moreau.
Kelce, McBride, Kincaid, Laporta and Mark Andrews were typically early second round to the latest mid third round picks in FFPC. Laporta has not played yet of course but in a format you get 1.5 points for a catch McBride at 10.5 points is the high man. As a matter of fact I think Likely outscored all of them combined.
Engram usually went next. He scored exactly 2 points in this format.
Pitts typically went next. He's the leader of this group so far and TE3 on the season wit ha fat 12.6 points TEP points, but most of that was on one play the Steelers got confused in coverage.
Kittle next, who has not played.
And 2 of the 3 next TE's that usually got drafted were Njoku(who looked really good) and Ferguson who both look like they might miss some time, and did not score a ton while they were in the game. Bowers was the other TE that went in this group, he did not set the world on fire but considering how much camp he missed and it was his first game it was pretty encouraging.
Basically if you drafted any of these top 10 TE's, with possible exception of Bowers, things did not go very well in week one. If you did not draft any of these TE's and did not have Likely you probably did not get much from your TE this week.
One week anomaly or a different way defenses are playing this year? I think it's an anomaly, but I can't say I'm not concerned where I own most of them. Not with Bowers, not so much with McBride, but the rest that have played.
In TEP scoring Kincaid is within 12 points of TE2 who I believe is Foster Moreau.
Kelce, McBride, Kincaid, Laporta and Mark Andrews were typically early second round to the latest mid third round picks in FFPC. Laporta has not played yet of course but in a format you get 1.5 points for a catch McBride at 10.5 points is the high man. As a matter of fact I think Likely outscored all of them combined.
Engram usually went next. He scored exactly 2 points in this format.
Pitts typically went next. He's the leader of this group so far and TE3 on the season wit ha fat 12.6 points TEP points, but most of that was on one play the Steelers got confused in coverage.
Kittle next, who has not played.
And 2 of the 3 next TE's that usually got drafted were Njoku(who looked really good) and Ferguson who both look like they might miss some time, and did not score a ton while they were in the game. Bowers was the other TE that went in this group, he did not set the world on fire but considering how much camp he missed and it was his first game it was pretty encouraging.
Basically if you drafted any of these top 10 TE's, with possible exception of Bowers, things did not go very well in week one. If you did not draft any of these TE's and did not have Likely you probably did not get much from your TE this week.
One week anomaly or a different way defenses are playing this year? I think it's an anomaly, but I can't say I'm not concerned where I own most of them. Not with Bowers, not so much with McBride, but the rest that have played.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
2 targets. I wanna puke.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m in a nail biter in my home league.
Still have Kupp, CMC, & a LB, but DKM, Kincaid, Nabers & Javonte all let me down.
And I let myself down swapping in Najee for BT Jr before the game.
Gah.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I always say that you’ve gotta follow your gut. Puke away brother. Brighter days ahead for Kincaid for sure.
Week one is always funky. Most offenses really haven’t settled in yet - but youve been around long enough to know this.
