Opinions are divided.
@adamschefter on twitter earlier today:
"If I'm the Seattle Seahawks or Green Bay Packers, I'm willing to sign TE Jimmy Graham to an offer sheet and to give up two 1's to get him."
Adam Schefter's own representation? Creative Artist Agency.
Jimmy Graham's agent? Super agent Jimmy Sexton of .... Creative Artist Agency.
Do you think it's a coincidence that Schefter is trying to drum up an artificial market for Graham in the press, which would indirectly benefit the sports agency that negotiates his own contracts and helps get him access to their client list for his insider information?
When Schefter breaks a story about Jay Z and Roc Nation, do you think he's going to spin a positive or negative view of Roc Nation? ( Roc Nation, in partnership with CAA, just represented Robinson Cano of MLB for the largest contract ever for a 2nd baseman) If Roc Nation has an NFL client, do you think Schefter is going to say there's a ton of interest in that free agent or not?
I've said for years, always follow the money. A lot of you guys just jump on the first headline you see without tracing back the complex core of relationships and interests and league politics.
Zach Ertz, 23 years old, was a 2nd round pick for the Eagles in the 2013 NFL Draft. His slotted pay as the 35th pick is a four year deal at about 5.3 million TOTAL. He put up 56/469/4 this past season splitting time with Brent "DFENS" Celek.
People are citing Graham's 90/1200/16 this past season as if it's a lock down point for all future seasons. It's likely not going to be his production going forward. No one is arguing that 2014 Graham can be a monster, but what about his age 31 and 32 years when the amount of dead money associated with his contract makes him prohibitive to cut? ( The Saints are going to need Graham to sign a deal that backloads because they aren't in a great cap position for the next few years, even with the Salary Cap expected to rise, that's dead money that will rot like a millstone during Graham's likely decline phase)
What Mickey Loomis has to consider is can I find a player who makes a fraction of the 12 million a year that Graham is asking for and get back X percentage of his likely production.
If you can get 65 percent of what Graham gives you for about 1/60th of the overall cost, is that 35 percent bump in production worth those tens of millions of dollars locked in for years? Or can you use that money to get other assets in place that will far outweigh the value of that difference?
The GM game is about "resource management" You lose this game, you don't win a championship. Two years ago, I said Maurice Jone Drew would likely cease to be an elite fantasy factor and would likely play out the string in Jacksonville and not be a desirable FA pick up except for some contenders looking for a veteran time share back on a cost controlled short contract. Lots of Jags homers said I was wrong, they said I didn't understand, they said MJD still have a long time left to be elite. But as Charles Barkley says - Father Time is undefeated.
Can Graham be elite for another 5-6 years? Sure, it's possible. Players like Curtis Martin, Jerry Rice, Jackie Slater (maybe Bob Magaw and I are the only ones here who really value the under appreciated Slater), Bruce Matthews, Darrell Green have defied the odds.
But is it likely? The players above are the rare exceptions to the rule.
Bill Walsh - "Of all things that NFL General Managers desire, it's a measure of certainty"
NFL GMs crave certainty, in so much as is ever possible. Graham being elite for the kind of contract he wants, it is possible? Sure. But is it likely? No.
Graham wants to bet on himself, as he should, he should be the kind of player who is confident that he can be elite for another 6 years.
But Mickey Loomis is betting on Father Time, who is far more brutal and consistent.
Do you think I enjoyed watching the 49ers ship out Ronnie Lott and Joe Montana like some old sneakers in the back of a locker? But you have to separate how you feel as a fan from how the NFL actually operates.
For fantasy owners, when it comes to building a winner, no one cares how you feel in relation to how the NFL market forces work in the real world. What you feel doesn't matter. Your fandom means nothing. Which players you admire has an absolute value of zero.
For those of you who fully believe Graham will rock it as an elite player for the next SIX YEARS, I say go on, bet on that with your dynasty teams. You might, in defiance of Father Time, be right. But odds are, you'll be wrong.
Why doesn't he mention a team like the Packers who have $35 million of cap space, or focus more on the Patriots who have $12 million and can increase that to at least $18-20 million by reworking contracts - both being teams who unlike Seattle doesn't have to save up in order to dish out $20 million on their young QB who is coming up for contract renewal.
