dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Next week will be the week, I'm tellin' ya!
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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
Jonnu Smith now being featured
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Bump
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Double pump bump
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Caleb Williams
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Maybe Pitts isn’t that good. Or maybe we have no way of knowing because his quarterback refuses to throw to him when he’s actually open:
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
They're not picking first.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
That's pretty funny.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In fairness a lot of the throws to Pitts look like deep shots that are very off target and hard to impossible for Pitts to haul in, while targets to Smith are likely shorter and easier plays to make.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Damn that’s good
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Through 4 weeks how's it looking guys?
dipandglide
Footballguy
London isn't producing either
The issue is QB and Pitts lingering knee injury. Pitts has been laboring when running. He isn't 100%.
The issue is QB and Pitts lingering knee injury. Pitts has been laboring when running. He isn't 100%.
finfansteve
Footballguy
They should shut him down then he’s basically shut down now with their usage of him anyhow
Matt Harmon
@MattHarmon_BYB
Follow
ESPN broadcast very casually mentioned that the team knows Kyle Pitts is operating at well under 100% coming back from his knee injury last year
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Let’s not blame his lack of production on injury. The Falcons are not a good passing team and frankly—I think we all (including the fantasy experts) need to just admit that maybe we overestimated him in our projections. I made the mistake of drafting him last season and that was enough. I won’t touch him again unless he’s on a different team or scheme. The dude has played in 30 games so far in his NFL career. Unless he’s been injured in all of them— how does a guy with 3 total td’s in 30 games get soo much hype? The TE position for the most part is touchdown dependent outside of the top 2-3 guys and Pitts resume has proven that he’s not a guy that you can reliably count on for the occasional TD. Mark my words—his next decent game—he’ll be on fantasy benches—and that game will lull people into starting him again—and his statistical ineptitude will once again reappear and haunt his owners. Thats the issue with a guy like Pitts. He hurts you when he performs badly, and when he actually does something—he hurts you indirectly by giving you false hope into starting him again.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
This is the victory lap I am here for. Nice call man.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Finally a good game.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Finally, on my bench.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Don’t fret. He should’ve been on every fantasy bench -
Hopefully this sparks more usage.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
I’ve stuck with him after a disappointing start to the season.
zamboni
Footballguy
Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in.
Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in.
youtu.be
kdpatron15
Footballguy
yes - it feels like ridder bought himself more time which is unfortunate. I am not sure you can start pitts with confidence unless you see a couple more weeks of success.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
I’ll never have confidence when starting (or benching) Pitts as he seems to bite me every single time. The one time I benched him this season his replacement did a goose egg while he had his best game on my bench and it cost me my matchup. That angered me more than any of the times he sucked in my lineup. I’m also terrified of trading Pitts away for a better TE because with my luck, that will be when the light bulb goes on for him and he becomes the stud we’ve waited for. So I’m committed to ruining his career by starting him every week in my dynasty league and watching as countless other TE’s on my waiver wire outscore him. For my mental health I refuse to roster a second TE until his bye week or next injury, whichever comes first. I’d rather not see him outscore the guy I benched him for again. Wish I never drafted him. Now I’m cursed with him, it is what it is.
(Although because of how much he’s sucked, it allowed me to win the Bijan sweepstakes, so there’s a silver lining after all!)
(Although because of how much he’s sucked, it allowed me to win the Bijan sweepstakes, so there’s a silver lining after all!)
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I’m the same here. I picked up Ferguson last week to replace him but couldn’t flat out drop Pitts thinking the same way you do.
Due to decimation of injuries last week, it looks like I’m starting Ferguson and flexing Pitts this week. So running the two mediocre tight end set!
IMO his main issues are not Ridder, the scheme, or ability but simply his health. Those are other legit issues, they are just secondary.
It's odd to me and something I don't see people discussing but it seems to be taking him longer to recover from MCL surgery then are seeing some players recover from an ACL surgery.
They keep saying his health is improving and that' s the key. If he can get back to 100% I think he'll change the narrative in a hurry.
It's odd to me and something I don't see people discussing but it seems to be taking him longer to recover from MCL surgery then are seeing some players recover from an ACL surgery.
They keep saying his health is improving and that' s the key. If he can get back to 100% I think he'll change the narrative in a hurry.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree here. Many are talking like Pitts hasn’t done anything in his career. He had an historical rookie season and missed most of last year due to injury. For sure, the ecosystem of Ridder at QB and the addition of London for target competition aren’t helping his cause, but it’s not like Pitts has never done anything. Perhaps expectations were too high coming off the injury.
For sure but also with good reason as I was saying earlier, I don't think we typically expect an MCL injury to linger. It's not something we hashed out around here for months like we did with Breece or Javonte's ACL's.
I remember reading an article from a Falcons beat writer in late August when he said he thought that Pitts would be active for the opener. I remember thinking in terms of I had zero idea it was in doubt. Then I saw Dr. Chao assign him a real low SIC score (which is basically the percentage of normal production that player will give you relative to his health). I mainly bailed on him for redraft after reading this stuff.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
For me he’s been something of a letdown even in his historic rookie season. Breaking the 1,000 yard mark for a rookie TE is impressive, but he was still disappointing for fantasy that season. Only 1 TD scored in 17 games played, for a guy with all the dominant physical traits that he possesses. He wasn’t being targeted, which isn’t really his fault. He finished as the fantasy TE9, below a handful of guys who got drafted much later than him.
Last year we attributed to atrocious QB play from Mariota and to injury. This year it seems to be continued atrocious QB play, this time from Ridder, as well as being slower than expected in recovering from last year’s injury. Still believe in the player, there’s just so many things working against him. His usage has always been puzzling because he was unguardable against SEC defenses and should still be able to win his matchups in the NFL.
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree with just about everything you say except for the 1 TD part. It was disappointing, but TDs are often a fluky stat (Diontae Johnson last year as another example).
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Yeah, the Falcons were worse in the red zone than I even remember. In 2021, he had 16 red zone targets on the season (a high number compared to the rest of the field) but only 6 of those were completed, and only 1 for a TD. It doesn't feel like it but Pitts' target share has always been among the best at his position (6th in 2021, 2nd last year, 5th this year). I don't know what is where the production doesn't match what the metrics are saying.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Just got him off waivers, what have I gotten myself into!
zamboni
Footballguy
Probably anger management class, like the rest of us owners.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Trust targets. He had 110 in his rookie year where everyone was happy. He is on pace for 109 this year.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Nobody owns Kyle Pitts, he owns YOU.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You think that it’s fluky that Pitts has 3 career touchdowns in 32 games? That seems like a more than adequate sample size to conclude that he’s a dude that cannot be trusted to score TD’s in the most TD dependent position in fantasy sports. Keep in mind that I’m not implying that he’s not capable of scoring td’s—the dude is clearly talented. With that said—I feel like every excuse is made for this guy. It’s QB play, it’s injuries, it’s bad coaching…etc. Last year—the Falcons over achieved almost every pre-season expectation of them—and Pitts had virtually nothing to do with it. As I said earlier—he’s a super talented guy that will inevitably have a few big games here and there—many of those games will occur while he’s on the benches of fantasy owners. The moment his owners feel better about starting him—-he’ll throw up production that will make them regret ever having him. The reality with Pitts is that even the owners that are lucky enough to start him in his big games are never fully comfortable starting him—and his track record justifies that discomfort.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
In fairness to Pitts, and its not a total excuse, an alpha needs to play and perform better, for his entire time in Atlanta in my recollection, he was THE guy to take away from in the red zone.
Now, I'm sure Gronk wore that distinction most of his active career and he still got his.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree 100%. The TE is such a wasteland that I'm rolling him out each week - will get a few big games and a bunch of clunkers like most other guys.
I do think it's flukey and would cite the 12 TD's he had in 8 games his last year in college playing all 8 games against SEC comp.
His conversion rates are not great on his chances, I will admit that but in these 32 games he only averaging .71 red zone targets a game and .4 targets inside the 10. So in maybe simpler terms every 3 games he gets a total of two targets inside the red zone and every 5 games he gets a total of two targets inside the 5 and this is where all 3 of this TD's have come from. I'll say again his conversion rate is lower then most TE's but yes I think it's a flukey due to combo of QB play, his health, usage which is not like most TE's as he does not get benefit of LB's and S's trying to cover him as much as most of the other elite TE's.
I'll introduce Cole Kmet as an example of the flukiness with TD's.
24 college games, 6 total TD's.
After 2 full seasons in the NFL, which included 30 games and 88 receptions he had 2 TD's.
Then last season he had zero TD's after his first 7 weeks.
So at this point in his career he's got 24 college games, 37 NFL games, 61 games total and a grand total of 8 TD's.
He then scored 10 TD's over his next 15 games.
ETA-I'm on record somewhere in these forums, probably the Kmet thread, of arguing he had such an extensive track record of not scoring TD's that it was hard to think it was a fluke and it was just something about him. It did not make sense to me considering his size, but that's what I was thinking at the time.
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DJ Moore, a guy who has been knocked his entire NFL career for not scoring tds, just scored 3 last week. They are definitely fluky.
I don’t remember what game it was now, but I was watching Atlanta earlier this season when they were in the redzone. Ridder literally went to Pitts on three consecutive plays and none of the balls were catchable.
I will continue to champion for Pitts because what I don’t believe is a fluke is a 20 year-old kid putting up 1000 yards playing historically one of the most difficult positions in the league.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think that your mindset is absolutely fine and have zero issue with it. Your attitude is the exact type of attitude and point of view that anybody should have when it comes to starting Pitts. Your expectations are in line and are willing to accept that his upside is capped by his ability to balance them out with clunkers. Keep in mind—I’m not anti-Pitts—-I’m just a dude that listened to the experts on Pitts last season and it was a giant cluster. I kept hearing how it was just a matter of time until the Falcons had no choice but to utilize him more, how he was bound to explode into elite territory—and I found myself stuck in this negative loop cycle where I was not confident when I started him, but was scared to drop him. By all means—I have no problem with anybody starting Pitts—but my motivation in posting here is to try to bring peoples expectations of him to a reasonable place. What you just posted in regards to Pitts is exactly what I would call reasonable.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think that Pitts TD rate probably has to go up because it pretty much can’t go lower. That’s just plain math. A C-/D+ student has far more runway to improve their performance than a student that is getting an A- or B+.
Secondly—I don’t know if Cole Kmet is a parallel situation. The Bears are a team that is trending up offensively and are scoring 6+ points a game more than the Falcons. The Falcons are averaging something like 16 points a game so far this season—and it’s not like they have played the toughest competition. They are a team that is dedicated to running the ball, keeping the clock running, and staying in games by keeping the clock running. I don’t think that’s a recipe for a Tight End to thrive in regards to fantasy purposes. The Falcons are going to look to Bijan and Algier first. Drake is going to be their second option. Ridder running for a TD is going to be the third option—and then maybe Pitts. Ridder has 4 passing touchdowns in 5 games. Fields has had two consecutive games with 4 passing touchdowns each. He has 11 passing touchdowns in 5 games. Those are not exactly parallel situations. The Bears don’t have a Bijan to hand the ball off to.
With all of that said—I would not be surprised in the least to see Pitts have a nice game this week. Again—I’m not a Pitts hater—I’m just a dude that is looking to temper people’s expectactions of him. This past game is what is creating buzz around him—and he scored something like a whopping 12.5 points in a half point ppr format. His next highest point total in half point PPR this season has been like 6 points.
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