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TE Mark Andrews, BAL (1 Viewer)

Him or Higbee here. No idea what to do. This has regret written all over it, one way or another. 

Hate to say it, but almost hope he’s a surprise inactive. Hate living with bad calls this time of year. 

 
I'm torn on this as well. I have Andrews, Hayden Hurst or Irv Smith. If he's not 100% I wish he would just be inactive to make the decision easier!

 
Rotoworld from earlier today:

NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reports Mark Andrews (knee) is "expected to give it a go" for Thursday night's matchup against the Jets.

Andrews has been nothing short of remarkable in his second season; only George Kittle in 2018 (2.82) and 2019 (2.91) has averaged more yards per route run among all TEs with at least 50 targets in a single season over the past 10 years than Andrews (2.81) in 2019. Continue to fire up Andrews as a high-end TE1, while Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst would be upside TE2s if Jackson's favorite receiver is ultimately sidelined.

SOURCE: Mike Garafolo on Twitter

Dec 12, 2019, 10:24 AM ET
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So he's in. But so tempted to play Hurst anyway. Over Cook. Concussions scare me, and I think Hurst can have a big game once they decide to bench Andrews.

 
-OZ- said:
So he's in. But so tempted to play Hurst anyway. Over Cook. Concussions scare me, and I think Hurst can have a big game once they decide to bench Andrews.
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If you're predicting a blowout and people are sitting by late 3rd, that bodes well for Andrews, no? I don't think Baltimore is running all over the Jets, Jackson is going to take some shots to Andrews. Again, we can't forecast injuries completely but I'm watching him on NFL Network and he looks fine. No limp, running routes well.

 
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The Frankman said:
If you're predicting a blowout and people are sitting by late 3rd, that bodes well for Andrews, no? I don't think Baltimore is running all over the Jets, Jackson is going to take some shots to Andrews. Again, we can't forecast injuries completely but I'm watching him on NFL Network and he looks fine. No limp, running routes well.
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Agreed. I'd start Andrews where I have him (only in a best ball).  That's not even a question imo. 

But Hurst can also have a nice game.

 
Fading him for Higbee with Everette not practicing all week. Edit to callout I also have Engram as an option.

 
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On my bench. Playing a crappy team coming off injury with 2 capable TEs on the team gives me zero confidence of upside.

 
Mark Andrews caught 4-of-7 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' Week 15 win over the Jets.

A quintessential 2019 Andrews line. It was almost the most tilting of nights for Andrews' fantasy owners, as he had a one-yard score called back by an extremely late illegal formation penalty. The Ravens were already on the sideline. Thankfully, Andrews managed to score another one-yarder four plays later. Lamar Jackson did miss Andrews on what could have been a monster second half strike. On and off the injury report all year, Andrews gets 10 days to heal up for what will probably be his final appearance of the regular season Week 16 in Cleveland.
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The miss would've been a 72 yard walk in TD. Andrews was THAT open... all things considered I'll take what he had tonight.

 
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Mark Andrews caught 6-of-9 targets for 93 yards and two touchdowns in the Ravens' Week 16 win over the Browns.

Andrews was seen hobbling off the field late in the fourth quarter. He was the recipient of two beautiful dimes from Lamar Jackson, but the ridiculously talented second-year TE also demonstrated his always-excellent ability after the catch by hurdling a Browns defender on one occasion. Andrews offers more consistent and upside than most fantasy TEs due to both his dominant air yard market share as well as his status as the offense’s undisputed No. 1 pass-game option. The only other TEs in the league that can probably attest to also having this fantasy-friendly combination are Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller.
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All the attention is on Kittle and Ertz and people hardly mention guys like Hooper and Andrews.

 
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Great season from this guy. 2nd straight year I hit a home run with a late tight end (kittle last year)

Will be interesting to see how high he goes in drafts next year. The Baltimore offense will probably be slightly overdrafted.

I want to say that Andrews runs the risk of losing some opportunities as the other young (and highly drafted) TEs on the Ravens develop, but the truth is that he really didn't get that much volume this year. Dude was super efficient.

 
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With 10 TDs, Andrews is the 5th tight end in NFL history with double-digit receiving TDs in at least one of his first two seasons. The others: Mike Ditka, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham

 
Mark Andrews (ankle) was not spotted at Thursday's practice.

Even if Andrews didn't have an ankle injury to contend with, he'd still be unlikely to play with Baltimore committed to resting its starters in Sunday's meaningless finale against Pittsburgh. The Ravens wrapped up home field advantage in the AFC with last week's win over Cleveland. A first-time Pro Bowler, the second-year Oklahoma alum will finish 2019 with an impressive 64-852-10 receiving line on 98 targets. Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst should see more reps in Andrews' absence this week.

SOURCE: Jeff Zrebiec on Twitter

Dec 26, 2019, 1:51 PM ET
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TLEF316 said:
Great season from this guy. 2nd straight year I hit a home run with a late tight end (kittle last year)

Will be interesting to see how high he goes in drafts next year. The Baltimore offense will probably be slightly overdrafted.

I want to say that Andrews runs the risk of losing some opportunities as the other young (and highly drafted) TEs on the Ravens develop, but the truth is that he really didn't get that much volume this year. Dude was super efficient.
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He has been great but you ask a good question: have we seen his ceiling or can he do even more?

Pros: Jackson is only in his second year and could improve as a passer.

Cons: Lots of other young receivers, both at TE and WR, who could get more targets in future. I'm thinking especially Hollywood and Boykin, plus, regression to the mean?

My guess is that he will do about what he did this year but highly sceptical he will do better.

 
az_prof said:
He has been great but you ask a good question: have we seen his ceiling or can he do even more?

Pros: Jackson is only in his second year and could improve as a passer.

Cons: Lots of other young receivers, both at TE and WR, who could get more targets in future. I'm thinking especially Hollywood and Boykin, plus, regression to the mean?

My guess is that he will do about what he did this year but highly sceptical he will do better.
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I see one scenario where he might still do more and I think it's pretty likely. After the Ravens win the SB this year, teams will adjust and watch film over the offseason and all that. Teams will scheme against them in ways that will make them more competitive against them. But make no mistake, outside of injuries or derelict GM decisions, this offense is going to be elite for a long time. So when teams adjust, to me that just means the Ravens will be trying to score for longer periods of time instead of sitting in the 4th quarter. Shootout potential rises.

But IDK that Jackson can keep it up. I'd hope they would take a top back and a top WR this year and lean on them just a little more. 

 
Mark Andrews (ankle) returned to practice Friday.

Andrews' ankle has improved enough to practice, though it's doubtful we see him in Sunday's meaningless finale versus Pittsburgh. In all likelihood, he'll finish the regular season with 64 grabs for 852 yards and 10 touchdowns with the latter mark leading all NFL tight ends. Andrews should be at full strength well ahead of Baltimore's playoff opener in two weeks.

SOURCE: Jamison Hensley on Twitter

Dec 27, 2019, 11:48 AM ET
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Mark Andrews (ankle) doesn't expect to play in the upcoming Pro Bowl.

Andrews admitted his late-season ankle injury was something he had to "battle through." The injury proved to be a hindrance in Saturday's loss to Tennessee as the second-year tight end slumped to just 39 yards on four catches. Rather than appear in the Pro Bowl, Andrews' first such honor since arriving as a third-round pick in 2018, the hobbled tight end will cede his AFC roster spot to someone else. Andrews led all tight ends with 10 touchdowns during the regular season.

SOURCE: Jamison Hensley on Twitter

Jan 12, 2020, 11:48 AM ET
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I think we will see other receivers--Hollywood, Dobbins, Boykin, and maybe Duvernay, cutting into Andrews' targets as teams scheme to stop Andrews.  The TD regression is almost certain. He is a solid fantasy TE and I would love to have him in dynasty, but I would guess he is more likely to stay in the TE 4-6 range rather than jump to the TE1 or TE2 range.  

 
az_prof said:
I think we will see other receivers--Hollywood, Dobbins, Boykin, and maybe Duvernay, cutting into Andrews' targets as teams scheme to stop Andrews.  The TD regression is almost certain. He is a solid fantasy TE and I would love to have him in dynasty, but I would guess he is more likely to stay in the TE 4-6 range rather than jump to the TE1 or TE2 range.  
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Jackson loves throwing to his TEs, he was actually #1 in the league in passes thrown to TEs with 43.6%. Andrews caught 65% and Hurst caught 75% of their passes. I don't see that number going down, if anything with the trading away of Hurst I can actually see the 98 passes reach 100+ with Andrews benefiting greatly by that.

Tex

 
barackdhouse said:
He is always going to have double digit TD upside in this offense. I can't really see his floor less than 7.
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If you think that is a floor, you must be basing that on unstated assumptions. For example, that Andrews and Jackson both stay healthy.

 
Just Win Baby said:
If you think that is a floor, you must be basing that on unstated assumptions. For example, that Andrews and Jackson both stay healthy.
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That is implied and doesn't need mentioned. 100% of the time. 

 
barackdhouse said:
That is implied and doesn't need mentioned. 100% of the time. 
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I certainly don't think any projection for Andrews should assume 100% health for Jackson. His running elevates his injury risk. And actually, most people do make reference to these types of assumptions when talking about projections, floors, etc.

I don't think 7 TDs is his floor even if both of them stay healthy, but will agree to disagree about that.

:shrug:  

 
Just Win Baby said:
I certainly don't think any projection for Andrews should assume 100% health for Jackson. His running elevates his injury risk. And actually, most people do make reference to these types of assumptions when talking about projections, floors, etc.

I don't think 7 TDs is his floor even if both of them stay healthy, but will agree to disagree about that.

:shrug:  
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This is unsupported by facts.

Brees, Roethlisburger, Foles, Stafford and others all missed significant time last year with injuries and none of them are running QBs.  Rodgers, Flacco, Wentz and others in previous seasons.

 
tangfoot said:
This is unsupported by facts.

Brees, Roethlisburger, Foles, Stafford and others all missed significant time last year with injuries and none of them are running QBs.  Rodgers, Flacco, Wentz and others in previous seasons.
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Foles broke his clavicle when he got hit. Stafford fractured bones in his back when he got hit while scrambling. Brees tore a ligament in his thumb when he got hit. Roethlisberger's injury was a non-contact injury, but most QB injuries come from getting hit. Do you dispute this?

Running means taking more hits. Do you dispute this?

 
Just Win Baby said:
Foles broke his clavicle when he got hit. Stafford fractured bones in his back when he got hit while scrambling. Brees tore a ligament in his thumb when he got hit. Roethlisberger's injury was a non-contact injury, but most QB injuries come from getting hit. Do you dispute this?

Running means taking more hits. Do you dispute this?
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Running means taking different hits, that’s as far as I’m willing to go

 
tangfoot said:
Just Win Baby said:
Foles broke his clavicle when he got hit. Stafford fractured bones in his back when he got hit while scrambling. Brees tore a ligament in his thumb when he got hit. Roethlisberger's injury was a non-contact injury, but most QB injuries come from getting hit. Do you dispute this?

Running means taking more hits. Do you dispute this?
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Running means taking different hits, that’s as far as I’m willing to go
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Surely you aren't disputing that he takes more hits by running. Yes, different hits when running than when standing in to throw while getting hit. I will even agree that those hits are more likely to cause injury than getting tackled when rushing. But consider, per PFF:

  • Jackson attempted 460 passes in 2019. He was sacked 27 times and hit 19 other times, including hit as he threw 3 times. So he was hit/tackled 46 times in 487 dropbacks in which he did not run/scramble. That is 9.4%.
  • Jackson had 196 rushing attempts. No doubt he ran out of bounds on some and slid on others, but I don't know where to find the data on how many times he was actually tackled... but I'm sure it was far more than 9.4% of the time. He probably took around 3 times more hits running than passing.
This Football Outsiders article shows that RBs are more likely than QBs to be on the injury report, more likely to suffer minor injuries, and more likely to suffer significant injuries. This one shows that the RB injury rate from 2007-2015 were more than twice as high as the QB injury rate. Jackson isn't a RB, but this data suggests that his risk of injury is greater due to his volume of running.

I did find multiple articles that concluded that QB rushing does not statistically increase the likelihood of injury. But there is really no sample size that compares well to Jackson, who has set the record for QB rushing attempts in a season 2 times in 2 seasons. Only 6 QBs in NFL history have run the ball 120 or more times in a season: Jackson (2 times), Newton (4 times), Vick (2 times), Griffin (once), Tebow (once), Douglass (once). It is a small sample size, and Jackson is nothing like Newton or Tebow, and Douglass was in 1972... so IMO this sample does not seem useful for predicting injury risk for Jackson.

All that said, I will just agree to disagree here so discussion can get back to Andrews.

 
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