I think based on ADP and positional rankings, Hock will be the biggest bust/disappointment of this season. TE3 in the middle of the 4th round is way too rich for me for a guy I think could be scoring in line with Friermuth and Engram going 3+ rounds later. Last year was the aberration IMO, and while his touches obv. went up, most of his efficiency stats actually went down. I believe Addison will be the beneficiary of a lot of those touches this year rather than Hock.
Every season is different, and MIN may have fewer passing attempts. But roughly 150-1200-10 in receiving production left with guys no longer on the roster. Addison should see a decent chunk of that. But it would be incredibly difficult for Jefferson to take on more than he did last year. The point being, even with Addison having a huge season (far from a given), there is still plenty of targets available for Hockenson. He would need 60 more targets than last year of those 200 that left to average the same number of targets per game. And of course, he could do more with them. I probably wouldn’t draft him early either (I’m not a huge TE early type of drafter), but I don’t think he will drop off much (if at all).
I guess I just see him as so inefficient that any loss of targets will result in a larger impact to his seasonal totals than other TEs. Catching 66% of his targets just feels so... mediocre. I don't think he's a bust overall, and almost a lock to be a top 12 TE. I just think he's going to finish in the 6-12 section of that surrounded by guys going rounds later than him. I see like 70 for 700 and maybe 4-5 TDs. I'd want a lot more than that from a 4th rounder. I guess maybe this just makes me higher on Addison and Mattison then I even thought looking at how big the pie should be and where it will go like you pointed out. Feel inevitable he'll still get a lot of looks. I'd just have him after Kelce, Andrews, Waller, Kittle, and Goedert. Think he should be in the Higbee/Pitts/Friermuth range. Watch me be terribly wrong on this take when the rookie and the former backup RB thrust into a starters role perform like most of them usually do though lol.
I probably am not the best guy to comment on the Vikings. I don't follow them, and I don't get to watch them very often. But the two games I saw him in last year:
NE: 5 receptions on 6 targets for 43 yards and a TD
NYG playoff game: 10 receptions on 11 targets for 129 yards
In both games, he didn't seem to do anything spectacular. Basically, he got open underneath, occasionally shook the first tackler, and was hard to bring down. Jefferson drew the coverage, and Hockenson was able to benefit. He did more against the Giants, but combined in these two games, he had 15 receptions on 17 targets. A case could be made that Addison would only help Hockenson do more with his targets, as Addison should serve to draw even more coverage away from him. Put another way, Addison is more likely to take defenders with him than Thielen would.
He did his job last year as king of the dump off routes. With Cook gone, he again should see those easy pitch and catch opportunities.
I don't know enough about Mattison to have any idea if he can take all the targets Cook got or not. MIN could see vastly different game scripts this season, as I don't see them being on the right side of so many one score games again. Those tend to even out.