TE Travis Kelce, KC (5 Viewers)

[Faust]

FOX Sports' Jay Glazer reports Travis Kelce (back) is a true game-time decision for Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the Bengals.​

Despite previous reports that Kelce is expected to play in Sunday's game, Glazer noted that Kelce is "a big question mark" after his back reportedly locked up on him Thursday. According to Glazer, Kelce has received a shot each of the last three days, leaving the team uncertain of whether or not he'll be able to go. His status will be one to monitor during pregame warmups, as the team won't look to make a decision on him until they've had a chance to see him run.
Jan 29, 2023, 2:29 PM ET

 

[TampaMike19]

Sounds like the biggest ********* story in a while lol

 

[Faust]

Travis Kelce (back) is active for the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals.​

Kelce was supposedly a game-time decision, but he was never going to sit unless he literally could not walk. The real question is how effective he will be at seems to be far less than 100 percent. It is possible Kelce ends up something of a decoy after last week's 14-catch effort. It's also possible he's taken multiple pain-killing injections and is ready for his usual role. He is worth the risk in DFS contests. Inactive for the Chiefs are QB Shane Buechele, DE Joshua Kaindoh, OT Darian Kinnard, TE Blake Bell, WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR Justin Watson and DE Malik Herring.
Jan 29, 2023, 5:09 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Travis Kelce caught 7-of-8 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City's AFC Championship game win over the Bengals.​

Despite a late back injury threatening his status, Kelce played and scored the game's first touchdown playing bullyball on a fourth-and-1 go at the 14. The Bengals apparently switched some gears at halftime and between that and KC's wideouts getting hurt, Kelce had just three second-half targets. That didn't stop him from talking the talk after the game, where he declared that Cincinnati was a better city when Jerry Springer was the mayor. He'll meet brother Jason Kelce in the Super Bowl. Did you know they were brothers? Well, they are. Also, Andy Reid used to coach the Eagles, and Jerome Bettis is from Detroit.
Jan 29, 2023, 11:43 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Most Tight Ends Are Lumbering Oafs. Travis Kelce Is a Unicorn.

 

[Faust]

Travis Kelce caught 6-of-6 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs' Super Bowl LVII victory over the Eagles.​

Kelce's first quarter touchdown was the second of his Super Bowl career. Appearing in all 17 games, Kelce earned first-team All-Pro honors as he scored a career-high 12 touchdowns while posting his second most yards (1,338). Even with Tyreek Hill and the down-field attention he commanded gone, Kelce remained uncoverable over the middle of the field. Although the 33-year-old’s efficiency has waned ever so slightly in recent years, he is aging as well as any tight end in league history. His ongoing production at such a rugged position is nothing short of miraculous. That’s why the Chiefs and fantasy managers can’t keep counting on it forever. Kelce will remain a no-brainer, top-three TE1 for 2023, but a dip in production, especially from this year’s career marks, is likely. Although Kelce has no guaranteed money left on his deal, he is not a candidate for a contract adjustment unless it is in his favor.
Feb 12, 2023, 10:26 PM ET

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That shoestring catch was something else.

 

[Uncle Leo]

He was supposed slowdown due his age this year, right?

 

[bcat01]

He was supposed slowdown due his age this year, right?

next year

 

[Drake Hater]

He was supposed slowdown due his age this year, right?

Yep. I can't remember reading any preseason FF analysis that didn't make that statement.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

The more I see of him on social media, the more of a fan I become. Him and his brother have an epic podcast and their interaction at the conclusion of the super bowl was awesome, as a Raider fan I didn't think I could ever like a Chiefs player but I'm a fan of the Kelce brothers.

 

[JohnnyU]

He was supposed slowdown due his age this year, right?

next year

2029

 

[Faust]

'Saturday Night Live' with Travis Kelce: top moments

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce catches the comedy bug, hosts 'Saturday Night Live'

 

[IHEARTFF]

There were legit funny skits. He was great. I foresee more of this in his future.

 

[Faust]

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce fine being 'underpaid' in Kansas City: 'I love winning'

 

[FFCollusion]

If you drafted Kelce last year, there was a 71% chance you made the playoffs. That's the highest playoff rate of any player in the game in 2022.


Player ownership among championship teams.

22.8% -- Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers -- ADP: 3.1, 404.56 PTS

22.2% -- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs -- ADP: 31.6, 457.90 PTS

22.0% -- Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers -- ADP: 5.0, 413.80 PTS

21.4% -- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs -- ADP: 19.6, 337.40 PTS

20.4% -- A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles -- ADP: 36.0, 332.80 PTS

19.8% -- CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys -- ADP: 20.4, 338.80 PTS

19.8% -- George Kittle, TE, 49ers -- ADP: 48.2, 231.70 PTS

18.0% -- Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles -- ADP: 63.4, 386.50 PTS



Ownership of all teams that made it TO the championship game:

43.4% -- Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings -- ADP: 6.3, 358.36 PPR FPTS

41.4% -- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs -- ADP: 19.6, 295.20 PPR FPTS

40.2% -- Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants -- ADP: 28.0, 276.70 PPR FPTS

37.6% -- Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles -- ADP: 63.4, 369.58 PPR FPTS

35.6% -- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs -- ADP: 31.6, 376.90 PPR FPTS

35.2% -- Josh Allen, QB, Bills -- ADP: 24.0, 373.76 PPR FPTS

34.5% -- A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles -- ADP: 36.0, 266.40 PPR FPTS

34.4% -- Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers -- ADP: 5.0, 331.60 PPR FPTS

33.7% -- Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins -- ADP: 19.2, 327.20 PPR FPTS

33.6% -- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans -- ADP: 5.9, 288.96 PPR FPTS

32.4% -- T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings -- ADP: 73.7, 199.90 PPR FPTS

32.4% -- George Kittle, TE, 49ers -- ADP: 48.2, 169.30 PPR FPTS


Another train of thought...

Kelce at TE1 outscored TE10 by 172 fantasy points

Mahomes at QB1 outscored QB10 by 133 fantasy points

Ekeler at RB1 outscored RB10 by 133 fantasy points

Jefferson at WR1 outscored WR10 by 117 points



You aren't paying for the standings difference from 1 to 10, you pay for the POINT difference.

Points win fantasy games, not end of season standings.

So if the point difference from TE1 to TE10 (+172) is actually the equivalent of the point difference from RB1 to RB17(+169) or the equivalent of WR1 to WR26 (+169) suddenly the math starts to change. QB1 to QB13 (+171)

And that's before we even start to add in the predictability aspect that TE, QB, and WR hold over the RB position.


Did you know, that if I started Kelce every week vs you with the #10 TE (Njoku) AND Dionte Johnson... You would have only outscored me by 4 points?

Think about that... TE10 and a top 15WR COMBINED just to compete with Kelce by himself.

Since I can predict your TD screams for Dionte, I'm feeling generous. Last year Brandon Aiyuk was WR15 overall.

There were 16 weeks last season, when all 3 of these players played at the same time. (Aiyuk+Njoku vs Kelce)

Of those 16 weeks... Kelce, by himself, won 7 times.

I was even more curious, my 1st page of WRs only goes to 50. I grabbed the 50th WR last year, Richie James (NYG)

If I combine WR50+Kelce vs TE10+WR15... Kelce side jumps to 11 wins out of 16.



Let that sink in for a moment. Travis Kelce will outscore TE10 and WR15 BY HIMSELF about half the time. And if you can manage to own any WR in the top 50, you'll jump to 11/16 wins.


Everyone wants to complicate this game with year long results, and PPG, and value, and this and that.

I can not stress this enough, it's a weekly game, and the only thing that matters is points, not positions, and your win loss column.

The narrative that shall this was "Kelce isn't worth a 1st because I can get a top 5 TE late in drafts"

Last year Engram was TE5, a perfect example of a late round/WW TE who absolutely crushed it for that strategy. Aiyuk was WR15.

Kelce TE1 + Richie WR50.


Kelce/Aiyuk/Engram played 15 games at the same time.

Engram's bye is week 11, when Kelce scored 35 points, but I'll leave it out.

Richie missed weeks 9, 10, and 17, I'm leaving them IN.



I'll start with Kelce BY HIMSELF again.

If the 15 games Kelce vs Engram(TE5)+Aiyuk(WR15)

Kelce won 7. 7 out of 15 games, Kelce by himself, outscored Engram and Aiyuk combined. (Really driving home the point that the TE5 and TE10 are the same thing, this is why you invest, or stream, and nothing in-between.) And we're not even including his best game of the season.

Then, if I add the lowest WR on the list, Richie James, WR50 to the Kelce side, the wins jump up to 9 out of 15.


Kelce by himself will beat TE5+TE15 50% of the time.

Kelce + WR50 will beat TE5+WR15 60% of the time.

None of you are starting the 50th WR I hope.

 

[Da Franchise]

Great post @FFCollusion

 

[Loipz]

If you drafted Kelce last year, there was a 71% chance you made the playoffs. That's the highest playoff rate of any player in the game in 2022.


Player ownership among championship teams.

22.8% -- Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers -- ADP: 3.1, 404.56 PTS

22.2% -- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs -- ADP: 31.6, 457.90 PTS

22.0% -- Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers -- ADP: 5.0, 413.80 PTS

21.4% -- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs -- ADP: 19.6, 337.40 PTS

20.4% -- A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles -- ADP: 36.0, 332.80 PTS

19.8% -- CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys -- ADP: 20.4, 338.80 PTS

19.8% -- George Kittle, TE, 49ers -- ADP: 48.2, 231.70 PTS

18.0% -- Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles -- ADP: 63.4, 386.50 PTS



Ownership of all teams that made it TO the championship game:

43.4% -- Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings -- ADP: 6.3, 358.36 PPR FPTS

41.4% -- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs -- ADP: 19.6, 295.20 PPR FPTS

40.2% -- Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants -- ADP: 28.0, 276.70 PPR FPTS

37.6% -- Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles -- ADP: 63.4, 369.58 PPR FPTS

35.6% -- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs -- ADP: 31.6, 376.90 PPR FPTS

35.2% -- Josh Allen, QB, Bills -- ADP: 24.0, 373.76 PPR FPTS

34.5% -- A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles -- ADP: 36.0, 266.40 PPR FPTS

34.4% -- Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers -- ADP: 5.0, 331.60 PPR FPTS

33.7% -- Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins -- ADP: 19.2, 327.20 PPR FPTS

33.6% -- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans -- ADP: 5.9, 288.96 PPR FPTS

32.4% -- T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings -- ADP: 73.7, 199.90 PPR FPTS

32.4% -- George Kittle, TE, 49ers -- ADP: 48.2, 169.30 PPR FPTS


Another train of thought...

Kelce at TE1 outscored TE10 by 172 fantasy points

Mahomes at QB1 outscored QB10 by 133 fantasy points

Ekeler at RB1 outscored RB10 by 133 fantasy points

Jefferson at WR1 outscored WR10 by 117 points



You aren't paying for the standings difference from 1 to 10, you pay for the POINT difference.

Points win fantasy games, not end of season standings.

So if the point difference from TE1 to TE10 (+172) is actually the equivalent of the point difference from RB1 to RB17(+169) or the equivalent of WR1 to WR26 (+169) suddenly the math starts to change. QB1 to QB13 (+171)

And that's before we even start to add in the predictability aspect that TE, QB, and WR hold over the RB position.


Did you know, that if I started Kelce every week vs you with the #10 TE (Njoku) AND Dionte Johnson... You would have only outscored me by 4 points?

Think about that... TE10 and a top 15WR COMBINED just to compete with Kelce by himself.

Since I can predict your TD screams for Dionte, I'm feeling generous. Last year Brandon Aiyuk was WR15 overall.

There were 16 weeks last season, when all 3 of these players played at the same time. (Aiyuk+Njoku vs Kelce)

Of those 16 weeks... Kelce, by himself, won 7 times.

I was even more curious, my 1st page of WRs only goes to 50. I grabbed the 50th WR last year, Richie James (NYG)

If I combine WR50+Kelce vs TE10+WR15... Kelce side jumps to 11 wins out of 16.



Let that sink in for a moment. Travis Kelce will outscore TE10 and WR15 BY HIMSELF about half the time. And if you can manage to own any WR in the top 50, you'll jump to 11/16 wins.


Everyone wants to complicate this game with year long results, and PPG, and value, and this and that.

I can not stress this enough, it's a weekly game, and the only thing that matters is points, not positions, and your win loss column.

The narrative that shall this was "Kelce isn't worth a 1st because I can get a top 5 TE late in drafts"

Last year Engram was TE5, a perfect example of a late round/WW TE who absolutely crushed it for that strategy. Aiyuk was WR15.

Kelce TE1 + Richie WR50.


Kelce/Aiyuk/Engram played 15 games at the same time.

Engram's bye is week 11, when Kelce scored 35 points, but I'll leave it out.

Richie missed weeks 9, 10, and 17, I'm leaving them IN.



I'll start with Kelce BY HIMSELF again.

If the 15 games Kelce vs Engram(TE5)+Aiyuk(WR15)

Kelce won 7. 7 out of 15 games, Kelce by himself, outscored Engram and Aiyuk combined. (Really driving home the point that the TE5 and TE10 are the same thing, this is why you invest, or stream, and nothing in-between.) And we're not even including his best game of the season.

Then, if I add the lowest WR on the list, Richie James, WR50 to the Kelce side, the wins jump up to 9 out of 15.


Kelce by himself will beat TE5+TE15 50% of the time.

Kelce + WR50 will beat TE5+WR15 60% of the time.

None of you are starting the 50th WR I hope.

You convinced me.

 

[LawFitz]

Kelce by himself will beat TE5+TE15 50% of the time.

Kelce + WR50 will beat TE5+WR15 60% of the time.

None of you are starting the 50th WR I hope.

Good post overall, but in start-3-WR leagues, you should be comparing the dropoff to WR36, not WR10. Also, Kelce is being drafted in the first round this year. That means we need to be thinking,

Kelce + late-round WR vs.

Chase/Kupp/Tyreek/AJB/Devante + late-round TE

Makes the decision a bit more difficult, IMO.

 

[FFCollusion]

Kelce by himself will beat TE5+TE15 50% of the time.

Kelce + WR50 will beat TE5+WR15 60% of the time.

None of you are starting the 50th WR I hope.

Good post overall, but in start-3-WR leagues, you should be comparing the dropoff to WR36, not WR10. Also, Kelce is being drafted in the first round this year. That means we need to be thinking,

Kelce + late-round WR vs.

Chase/Kupp/Tyreek/AJB/Devante + late-round TE

Makes the decision a bit more difficult, IMO.

Does it though?

Forgive the formatting, you got me curious, so I'm making this up as I go, bear with me.

I'm trying to find a way to help people visualize opportunity cost and the value of alternate positions, across different rounds of a draft.
As always, this is just how I visualize the draft board. It is not the only way, the right way, or whatever, it's just my way.
You don't have to agree with the process, you don't have to agree with the projections, in fact, I highly recommend you use your own projections, or pick any website projections you trust, and do this yourself.

So... How do we account for positional advantages, without using hindsight?
The only practical method I think would apply, is projections.

Step 1: ADP
I'm using Yahoo for ADP and using FantasyPros for Projections. Feel free to use whatever you prefer.
Travis Kelce is currently TE1 drafted 10th overall via Yahoo.
The first RB and WR drafted immediately after Kelce, are Saquon Barkley and C.D. Lamb.
The opportunity cost of drafting Kelce, is Lamb/Saquon.

Step 2: Alternate TE options
Andrews is being drafted in the 3rd round.
Hockenson in the 4th round.
Waller in the 7th.
That's a decent 7 round range of potential/popular TE targets this year.

Step 3: Opportunity cost of the other TEs
The RB and WR drafted immediately after Andrews: J.K. Dobbins and Amari Cooper.
The RB and WR drafted immediately after Hockenson: Miles Sanders and Deebo Samuel
The RB and WR drafted immediately after Waller: Dalvin Cook and Jahan Dotson

Step 4: Projections
Kelce is projected to score 288 fantasy points. (For perspective he scored 316 last year, this is a projected drop of 28 points: 105/1236/10)
Andrews is projected to score 203 fantasy points.
Hockenson is projected to score 197 fantasy points.
Waller is projected to score 174 fantasy points.

Saquon is projected to score 259 fantasy points.
Dobbins is projected to score 180 fantasy points.
Sanders is projected to score 189 fantasy points.
Dalvin is projected to score 144 fantasy points.

Lamb is projected to score 281 fantasy points.
Amari is projected to score 219 fantasy points.
Deebo is projected to score 220 fantasy points.
Dotson is projected to score 178 fantasy points.

Step 5: Combination Totals
1st Round Kelce + 3rd Round Dobbins = 288+180 = 468 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 3rd Round Amari = 288 + 219 = 507 fantasy points.
1st Round Saquon + 3rd Round Andrews = 259 + 203 = 462 fantasy points.
1st Round Lamb + 3rd Round Andrews = 281 + 203 = 484 fantasy points.
As you can see, Kelce and the corresponding position of the 3rd round, will beat Andrews and the corresponding position of the 1st round.

1st Round Kelce + 4th Round Sanders = 288+ 189 = 477 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 4th Round Deebo = 288 + 220 = 508 fantasy points.
1st Round Saquon + 4th Round Hockenson = 259 + 197 = 456 fantasy points.
1st Round Lamb + 4th Round Hockenson = 281 + 197 = 478 fantasy points.
As you can see, Kelce and the corresponding position of the 4th round, will beat Hockenson and the corresponding position of the 1st round.

1st Round Kelce + 7th Round Dalvin = 288+ 144 = 432 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 7th Round Dotson = 288 + 178 = 466 fantasy points.
1st Round Saquon + 7th Round Waller = 259 + 174 = 433 fantasy points.
1st Round Lamb + 7th Round Waller = 281 + 174 = 455 fantasy points.
As you can see, Kelce and the corresponding position of the 7th round, will beat Waller and the WR, but lose to Waller and the RB by a single point. Can you actually get Waller in the 7th round? I don't know, but I strictly went off of ADP as of today.

Step 6: Insanity
1st Round Kelce + 5th Round Conner = 288 + 209 = 497 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 5th Round Hopkins = 288 + 208 = 496 fantasy points.
1st Round CMC + 5th Round Kittle = 309 + 174 = 483 fantasy points.
1st Round Jefferson + 5th Round Kittle = 315 + 174 = 489 fantasy points.
Believe it or not... based on the projections... Kelce and the 5th round player of the corresponding position, are projected to outscore both CMC and Justin Jefferson when combined with Kittle. I'll be honest, that one shocked me. Even knowing this... I'm still not sure I could pull the trigger on Kelce over Jefferson, Chase, or CMC. But I always like to challenge my own beliefs.

Step 7: ???

Step 8: Profit
Don't listen to people who use deceiving tactics, like trying to tell you you're taking a full round deficit at every single position on the draft board. It almost sounds plausible when you look at the draft board, but the reality is that in your lineup, your 2nd round pick is still your 2nd round pick. Meaningless terms like RB1, WR1, or where you slot them into your lineup, doesn't actually change anything. You are only swapping 2 positions and the round differential between them carries no value. Points are the only value in fantasy. If a 1st round TE and a 7th round WR outscore a 1st round WR and a 7th round TE, do you care that your WR is at a 6 round deficit to your opponents? No, because their TE is also at a 6 round deficit.
Does TE1 vs TE5 mean the same thing as WR1 to WR5? WR15? Maybe, who knows, who cares? Which combo scores more points in your lineup? That's the ONLY thing that matters. So if someone is trying to trick you into thinking a late round TE5 is proof that TE1 isn't worth a 1st round pick... all you have to do, is simple math. The answer will not always favor the TE. Sometimes the the TE5 might be the right answer. The point is that you need to know how to accurately measure the impact of both players, when put together, in a real world application, that is your fantasy lineup. And in a quantity that actually correlates to fantasy points. TE5 does not have a fantasy value. TE5 does not mean anything to your opponent, weekly matchup, or Win/Loss column.
The only caveat to this, is that once you go beyond the first... 7-9 rounds, you begin comparing players that aren't actually in your lineup. Kelce+15th round WR vs CMC+15th round TE, is not a realistic comparison... because while the 15th round TE could potentially be your starting TE, a 15th round WR wouldn't, and the comparison (again within the reality of how fantasy drafts and lineups actually work) would be with the final starting WR you draft. Meaning a real world comparison would be Kelce+7th round WR vs CMC+15th round TE. From there, it becomes 2 separate conversations, and you have to find the point differential, but you can begin debating the value of the 7th round pick the 2nd scenario would still have. But that's an abstract and unquantifiable discussion. It would be an interesting theoretical and intellectual conversation, but this was intended as a mathematical exercise.

I repeat... this is just 1 sites ADP and 1 sites projections. These results are not the end all be all. You should always use the ADP you feel best represents the platform you will draft on and the tendencies of your own league. You should use your own projections. If you project Kelce for only 250 points this year, obviously the results would be drastically different. More importantly, ADP changes every day, which means that every day the opportunity cost and values will change, in every single round. If Mark Andrews falls to the 4th... there's an entire new comparison to measure. I used a simple method of picking the immediate next WR/RB on the board, but technically speaking you have the option of a plethora of RB/WR options to choose from.

Blah blah blah, this was not intended as a strict rule to follow blindly, or as concrete evidence of why you should draft Kelce over X, Y, Z. It is merely just a way for me to try and share the way I look at positional advantages and their real world effects, to help identify the strategic means you can use to construct fantasy teams on draft day, or even a way to help justify rankings, cheatsheets, or just challenge the narrative that take a TE early puts you at any type of disadvantage. If your projections result in a disadvantage, then you should avoid the combo that equates that way. As far as this experiment goes, passing on Kelce is the real disadvantage.

 

[LawFitz]

^^^ Thanks. As stated in other threads, I appreciate the insight and intrigue. I agree with a lot, and disagree some also. Your overall premise (Kelce is regularly and sometimes severely underrated), I have been on board with for a while. Too much to respond to beyond that for now, but more importantly, thank you for the time spent to stoke the flames.

 

[LawFitz]

One last Kelce thought for tonight... I get that 137%++ of championship teams from 2022 had Trevis Kelce on their rosters. That is super cool and only marginally relevant to 2023.

You know what is 100% relevant every year? Roster construction. Unless you play in multi-TE leagues, you only get one shot at finding a stud TE. Go ahead and take that shot in Rd 1 with Kelce, while I take multiple shots in mutiple rounds trying to find stud starters at RB, WR in later rounds, even after taking a stud WR or RB in rd 1. It is a major disadvantage for Kelce (vs. other positional elites) having only one starting TE, if I have 2 starting RB and 3 starting WR. That dynamic cannot be understated, and is actually very clearly delineated when said in a start-3-WR league, the top WR should not be compared to WR10/12, but WR36. Kelce, OTOH to TE12, unless you start more than one TE.

 

[FFCollusion]

It is a major disadvantage for Kelce (vs. other positional elites) having only one starting TE, if I have 2 starting RB and 3 starting WR. That dynamic cannot be understated, and is actually very clearly delineated when said in a start-3-WR league, the top WR should not be compared to WR10/12, but WR36. Kelce, OTOH to TE12, unless you start more than one TE.

Show me any real world application, whether in a draft, or a fantasy lineup, where this could matter, and I'll entertain your theory.

If I have TE1 and you have WR1, and I have WR36 and you have TE12... Who wins our matchup? Who scores more points? You have no clue because those things don't translate into points. They mean nothing. Why is WR36 relevant to anything? Just because you start 3, doesn't mean you get the first 1 and I get the last one.

 

[LawFitz]

You have no clue because those things don't translate into points. They mean nothing. Why is WR36 relevant to anything? Just because you start 3, doesn't mean you get the first 1 and I get the last one.

There are some really great VBD articles on this website, which I think you should look into. They will do a much better job of clearing up your confusion about why WR36 is the relevant comp in start 3WR formats. Good luck.

 

[Da Franchise]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

 

[LawFitz]

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently?

Not at all. I don’t do projections either. I find the return on time invested to do them to be very low, if not negative.

 

[FFWhiskey]

If you drafted Kelce last year, there was a 71% chance you made the playoffs. That's the highest playoff rate of any player in the game in 2022.


Player ownership among championship teams.

22.8% -- Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers -- ADP: 3.1, 404.56 PTS

22.2% -- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs -- ADP: 31.6, 457.90 PTS

22.0% -- Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers -- ADP: 5.0, 413.80 PTS

21.4% -- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs -- ADP: 19.6, 337.40 PTS

20.4% -- A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles -- ADP: 36.0, 332.80 PTS

19.8% -- CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys -- ADP: 20.4, 338.80 PTS

19.8% -- George Kittle, TE, 49ers -- ADP: 48.2, 231.70 PTS

18.0% -- Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles -- ADP: 63.4, 386.50 PTS



Ownership of all teams that made it TO the championship game:

43.4% -- Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings -- ADP: 6.3, 358.36 PPR FPTS

41.4% -- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs -- ADP: 19.6, 295.20 PPR FPTS

40.2% -- Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants -- ADP: 28.0, 276.70 PPR FPTS

37.6% -- Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles -- ADP: 63.4, 369.58 PPR FPTS

35.6% -- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs -- ADP: 31.6, 376.90 PPR FPTS

35.2% -- Josh Allen, QB, Bills -- ADP: 24.0, 373.76 PPR FPTS

34.5% -- A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles -- ADP: 36.0, 266.40 PPR FPTS

34.4% -- Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers -- ADP: 5.0, 331.60 PPR FPTS

33.7% -- Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins -- ADP: 19.2, 327.20 PPR FPTS

33.6% -- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans -- ADP: 5.9, 288.96 PPR FPTS

32.4% -- T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings -- ADP: 73.7, 199.90 PPR FPTS

32.4% -- George Kittle, TE, 49ers -- ADP: 48.2, 169.30 PPR FPTS


Another train of thought...

Kelce at TE1 outscored TE10 by 172 fantasy points

Mahomes at QB1 outscored QB10 by 133 fantasy points

Ekeler at RB1 outscored RB10 by 133 fantasy points

Jefferson at WR1 outscored WR10 by 117 points



You aren't paying for the standings difference from 1 to 10, you pay for the POINT difference.

Points win fantasy games, not end of season standings.

So if the point difference from TE1 to TE10 (+172) is actually the equivalent of the point difference from RB1 to RB17(+169) or the equivalent of WR1 to WR26 (+169) suddenly the math starts to change. QB1 to QB13 (+171)

And that's before we even start to add in the predictability aspect that TE, QB, and WR hold over the RB position.


Did you know, that if I started Kelce every week vs you with the #10 TE (Njoku) AND Dionte Johnson... You would have only outscored me by 4 points?

Think about that... TE10 and a top 15WR COMBINED just to compete with Kelce by himself.

Since I can predict your TD screams for Dionte, I'm feeling generous. Last year Brandon Aiyuk was WR15 overall.

There were 16 weeks last season, when all 3 of these players played at the same time. (Aiyuk+Njoku vs Kelce)

Of those 16 weeks... Kelce, by himself, won 7 times.

I was even more curious, my 1st page of WRs only goes to 50. I grabbed the 50th WR last year, Richie James (NYG)

If I combine WR50+Kelce vs TE10+WR15... Kelce side jumps to 11 wins out of 16.



Let that sink in for a moment. Travis Kelce will outscore TE10 and WR15 BY HIMSELF about half the time. And if you can manage to own any WR in the top 50, you'll jump to 11/16 wins.


Everyone wants to complicate this game with year long results, and PPG, and value, and this and that.

I can not stress this enough, it's a weekly game, and the only thing that matters is points, not positions, and your win loss column.

The narrative that shall this was "Kelce isn't worth a 1st because I can get a top 5 TE late in drafts"

Last year Engram was TE5, a perfect example of a late round/WW TE who absolutely crushed it for that strategy. Aiyuk was WR15.

Kelce TE1 + Richie WR50.


Kelce/Aiyuk/Engram played 15 games at the same time.

Engram's bye is week 11, when Kelce scored 35 points, but I'll leave it out.

Richie missed weeks 9, 10, and 17, I'm leaving them IN.



I'll start with Kelce BY HIMSELF again.

If the 15 games Kelce vs Engram(TE5)+Aiyuk(WR15)

Kelce won 7. 7 out of 15 games, Kelce by himself, outscored Engram and Aiyuk combined. (Really driving home the point that the TE5 and TE10 are the same thing, this is why you invest, or stream, and nothing in-between.) And we're not even including his best game of the season.

Then, if I add the lowest WR on the list, Richie James, WR50 to the Kelce side, the wins jump up to 9 out of 15.


Kelce by himself will beat TE5+TE15 50% of the time.

Kelce + WR50 will beat TE5+WR15 60% of the time.

None of you drafstarting the 50th WR I hope.

Hear me out here, but I think drafting Travis Kelce in the first round of fantasy drafts this year is a huge mistake. At age 33, he is easily the OLDEST skill player being drafted in the ENTIRE draft. Maybe the oldest? Can't think of many 33 year old relevant fantasy skill players besides Kelce.

Not to mention, he will be 34 years old by the time Week 5 rolls around. For reference, Rob Gronkowski is only 5 months older than Travis Kelce and he is washed up and out of the league. Gronkowski was as talented as any player to ever play the position.

The other caveat is that the only player at TE to ever produce at Kelce's age is Tony Gonzalez. During his Age 33/34 season, Tony Gonzalez put up 83 Catches for 867 Yards and 6 TD.

Those are great numbers, however, people weren't drafting Tony Gonzalez in the first round. If Kelce put up that statline this year, he would disappoint greatly at his current ADP.

I am a proponent of avoiding a player a YEAR EARLY versus a YEAR LATE. If the wheels don't fall off during his age 33 season, then it's likely going to be in his age 34 or age 35 seasons. So the end is near soon. I fully understand he is playing with a generational talent at Quarterback, but so did Rob Gronkowski and as he got to the age that Kelce is now, his body started failing him.

So whether it's via injury or losing a step, I think Kelce is in for significant statistical regression this season. It's just weird that people are avoiding players like Derrick Henry (29 years old) and DeAndre Hopkins (31 years old) but are comfortable burning a 1st Rounder on a 33 year old TE at a position that has only seen many relevant fantasy seasons past age 33 other than the greatest TE of all time (Tony Gonzalez).

That's not to say that Travis Kelce won't put together a nice season, but I don't believe he will live up to his ADP and presents a HUGE RISK to those who draft him. Father time is undefeated. I believe Kelce's days of putting up WR type seasons are over.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffet

 

[FFCollusion]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

 

[FFWhiskey]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

Not everything is stats. At some point you draw a line in the sand.


Kelce will turn 34 in Week 5. Do you feel comfortable drafting a 34 year old player in the first? What about next year when he is 35? 36? And so on...


I assume if he was 39, you wouldn't be drafting him in the first round, right? So it's clear the end is near and you won't want to be holding the bag of **** and waste your 1st rounder on him the year he gets hurt/declines.


That's the hole in your analysis, IMO. At what age do you stop valuing him as a first round player? And at that, if that age is near, wouldn't you rather be a year early than a year late? If dude loses a step or gets hurt, your team is immediately crippled.


Doesn't matter what his positional advantage was last year if he drops off or gets injured this year. Older players get hurt, older players lose a step. He is the most valued 34 year old skill player I've ever seen and I've been doing this close to 2 decades.


Give me a young pup in any other round over the oldest available option in Round 1. Dude was catching passes in the NFL when I was a senior in high school about to be a freshman in college...

 

[FFCollusion]

Kelce

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffet

The irony of this quote is that no one knows which comes first. Your post sounds pretty fearful to me, so you agree others should be greedy?

 

[zamboni]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

Not everything is stats. At some point you draw a line in the sand.


Kelce will turn 34 in Week 5. Do you feel comfortable drafting a 34 year old player in the first? What about next year when he is 35? 36? And so on...


I assume if he was 39, you wouldn't be drafting him in the first round, right? So it's clear the end is near and you won't want to be holding the bag of **** and waste your 1st rounder on him the year he gets hurt/declines.


That's the hole in your analysis, IMO. At what age do you stop valuing him as a first round player? And at that, if that age is near, wouldn't you rather be a year early than a year late? If dude loses a step or gets hurt, your team is immediately crippled.


Doesn't matter what his positional advantage was last year if he drops off or gets injured this year. Older players get hurt, older players lose a step. He is the most valued 34 year old skill player I've ever seen and I've been doing this close to 2 decades.


Give me a young pup in any other round over the oldest available option in Round 1. Dude was catching passes in the NFL when I was a senior in high school about to be a freshman in college...

Excellent points. Kelce is going off around 5/6 in most mock drafts. The positional advantage is tantalizing there, but let's say he's still good but only 80% of what he was last year, that's a big opportunity cost at that spot. I'd also rather be a year too early than late.

 

[Keith1]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

Me too. Exact same position. Although I also have had fleeting thoughts of taking Chubb there. In my league though, TE counts as WR so the Kelce bonus is probably not as great as it otherwise would be.

 

[FFWhiskey]

Kelce

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffet

The irony of this quote is that no one knows which comes first. Your post sounds pretty fearful to me, so you agree others should be greedy?

You were way cooler in your other posts lol. The people who are taking a 33 year old in the first round when no TE that age has ever been drafted that high are the greedy ones.


If there was fear his ADP would have dropped instead of rise from last year. No irony. Hope that helps.

 

[Da Franchise]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

My answer to your question is that I don’t make my first pick based on what I hope to get with later picks. Looking at adp is extremely useful but it’s no guarantee to go according to plan. So generally, I take the player that makes the most sense to me at that spot independent of what I hope to do later.

 

[FFCollusion]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

My answer to your question is that I don’t make my first pick based on what I hope to get with later picks. Looking at adp is extremely useful but it’s no guarantee to go according to plan. So generally, I take the player that makes the most sense to me at that spot independent of what I hope to do later.

And how do you decide what "makes the most sense" without accounting for the other 14 rounds of your draft?

 

[Da Franchise]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

My answer to your question is that I don’t make my first pick based on what I hope to get with later picks. Looking at adp is extremely useful but it’s no guarantee to go according to plan. So generally, I take the player that makes the most sense to me at that spot independent of what I hope to do later.

And how do you decide what "makes the most sense" without accounting for the other 14 rounds of your draft?

I just take my highest rated player, which is typically a WR because there are precious few RBs I trust early. Kelce is the curveball which is what I enjoyed about your post.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

Not everything is stats. At some point you draw a line in the sand.


Kelce will turn 34 in Week 5. Do you feel comfortable drafting a 34 year old player in the first? What about next year when he is 35? 36? And so on...


I assume if he was 39, you wouldn't be drafting him in the first round, right? So it's clear the end is near and you won't want to be holding the bag of **** and waste your 1st rounder on him the year he gets hurt/declines.


That's the hole in your analysis, IMO. At what age do you stop valuing him as a first round player? And at that, if that age is near, wouldn't you rather be a year early than a year late? If dude loses a step or gets hurt, your team is immediately crippled.


Doesn't matter what his positional advantage was last year if he drops off or gets injured this year. Older players get hurt, older players lose a step. He is the most valued 34 year old skill player I've ever seen and I've been doing this close to 2 decades.


Give me a young pup in any other round over the oldest available option in Round 1. Dude was catching passes in the NFL when I was a senior in high school about to be a freshman in college...

Excellent points. Kelce is going off around 5/6 in most mock drafts. The positional advantage is tantalizing there, but let's say he's still good but only 80% of what he was last year, that's a big opportunity cost at that spot. I'd also rather be a year too early than late.

If someone is debating between drafting Kelce or Hill, I would factor in the following: who has the better QB, which QB is more injury prone, which team has the better O-line, who has the better offensive play caller, and who has the more talented competition for targets. Kelce has only missed 1 game in his career because of an actual injury. The only negative that is discussed is his age. He consistently puts up 145 targets, 100 catches and 10 TD's. Until there is an actual decline in his production, his age doesn't bother me. Fast players become slower with age. Technicians become better with experience. The Chiefs are managing his age by reducing his snap %. In 2017, 18 and 19, Kelce saw at least 90% of the snaps 80% of the time. He has not hit 90% in a single game in over a year and a half. The snap count is down to the low 80's, but the production has remained the same. If there is a concern that the wear and tear of a long season will start to slow him down, just look at his playoff stats.

 

[FFWhiskey]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

Not everything is stats. At some point you draw a line in the sand.


Kelce will turn 34 in Week 5. Do you feel comfortable drafting a 34 year old player in the first? What about next year when he is 35? 36? And so on...


I assume if he was 39, you wouldn't be drafting him in the first round, right? So it's clear the end is near and you won't want to be holding the bag of **** and waste your 1st rounder on him the year he gets hurt/declines.


That's the hole in your analysis, IMO. At what age do you stop valuing him as a first round player? And at that, if that age is near, wouldn't you rather be a year early than a year late? If dude loses a step or gets hurt, your team is immediately crippled.


Doesn't matter what his positional advantage was last year if he drops off or gets injured this year. Older players get hurt, older players lose a step. He is the most valued 34 year old skill player I've ever seen and I've been doing this close to 2 decades.


Give me a young pup in any other round over the oldest available option in Round 1. Dude was catching passes in the NFL when I was a senior in high school about to be a freshman in college...

Excellent points. Kelce is going off around 5/6 in most mock drafts. The positional advantage is tantalizing there, but let's say he's still good but only 80% of what he was last year, that's a big opportunity cost at that spot. I'd also rather be a year too early than late.

If someone is debating between drafting Kelce or Hill, I would factor in the following: who has the better QB, which QB is more injury prone, which team has the better O-line, who has the better offensive play caller, and who has the more talented competition for targets. Kelce has only missed 1 game in his career because of an actual injury. The only negative that is discussed is his age. He consistently puts up 145 targets, 100 catches and 10 TD's. Until there is an actual decline in his production, his age doesn't bother me. Fast players become slower with age. Technicians become better with experience. The Chiefs are managing his age by reducing his snap %. In 2017, 18 and 19, Kelce saw at least 90% of the snaps 80% of the time. He has not hit 90% in a single game in over a year and a half. The snap count is down to the low 80's, but the production has remained the same. If there is a concern that the wear and tear of a long season will start to slow him down, just look at his playoff stats.

Honest question. Let's say hypothetically, he has the same statline as last year for the next 3 seasons.

So we're now in 2026. Kelce is now 36 going on 37 and has shown no signs of decline.


Would you still take him in the first round? Or at some point does age take precedent over prior production? If so, at what age would you officially become hesitant for him to produce at his current level?

 

[Tau837]

As is often true, league rules for lineups and scoring are hugely important in this discussion. I play in Anarchy leagues every year, in which there are 16 teams that must start 2 TEs each at minimum (also possibly at flex), and TE PPR scoring is higher than all other positions. In those leagues, Kelce may well be the #1 pick.

That said, I play in one typical PPR redraft league every year. NFW I would seriously consider drafting Kelce in the first round in that league, for a lot of the reasons that have been mentioned. That's me, everyone is entitled to their own opinions, obviously.

 

[Deamon]

Honest question. Let's say hypothetically, he has the same statline as last year for the next 3 seasons.

So we're now in 2026. Kelce is now 36 going on 37 and has shown no signs of decline.

Would you still take him in the first round? Or at some point does age take precedent over prior production? If so, at what age would you officially become hesitant for him to produce at his current level?

Don't really think there's any level.

If the guy is 57 years old and has put up 20 straight seasons of 100 catches and 10+ TD's, then I'm taking him in Round 1 the next year.

 

[FFWhiskey]

Honest question. Let's say hypothetically, he has the same statline as last year for the next 3 seasons.

So we're now in 2026. Kelce is now 36 going on 37 and has shown no signs of decline.

Would you still take him in the first round? Or at some point does age take precedent over prior production? If so, at what age would you officially become hesitant for him to produce at his current level?

Don't really think there's any level.

If the guy is 57 years old and has put up 20 straight seasons of 100 catches and 10+ TD's, then I'm taking him in Round 1 the next year.

That's fair and really the crux of any argument regarding Kelce. I get it. If you took Kelce in the first the last 2-3 years and he won you championships, then you can stomach being a year late and him busting the year he does decline because your faith was previously rewarded.


"I can't believe I drafted Kelce 4 of the last 5 years and he only underperformed his ADP once."



I personally subscribe to the theory that the NFL stands for "not for long" but it takes all types. Appreciate your feedback.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Here's an idea (maybe already suggested). Would appreciate any thoughts.

Draft Kelce and get a top TE a couple/few rounds later, and play Kelce as your flex as if he were a WR. This will give you great trade bait, and also further stress rosters with lesser TE play.

 

[kface]

Here's an idea (maybe already suggested). Would appreciate any thoughts.

Draft Kelce and get a top TE a couple/few rounds later, and play Kelce as your flex as if he were a WR. This will give you great trade bait, and also further stress rosters with lesser TE play.

taking a 2nd te early doesn't stress other teams it weakens your team because you are missing out on a top rb or wr

 

[Deamon]

Here's an idea (maybe already suggested). Would appreciate any thoughts.

Draft Kelce and get a top TE a couple/few rounds later, and play Kelce as your flex as if he were a WR. This will give you great trade bait, and also further stress rosters with lesser TE play.

No way man.

 

[BigAl21]

Here's an idea (maybe already suggested). Would appreciate any thoughts.

Draft Kelce and get a top TE a couple/few rounds later, and play Kelce as your flex as if he were a WR. This will give you great trade bait, and also further stress rosters with lesser TE play.

taking a 2nd te early doesn't stress other teams it weakens your team because you are missing out on a top rb or wr

In TE premium it replaces that would be RB/WR in your flex and leaves one less stud TE to compete against on a week to week basis. Startable WRs can be found in leagues WW except for those wildly deep bench leagues. RB are too oft injured for me to invest the big draft capital. I don’t know the ADP on these guys but Kelce /Andrews is a great get in TE premium over Hill/Andrews IMO

 

[Capella]

Father time is undefeated

I largely agree with your post but Father Time did lose to Tom Brady, badly. Kelce may be another exception but I’m probably not betting on him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

Not everything is stats. At some point you draw a line in the sand.


Kelce will turn 34 in Week 5. Do you feel comfortable drafting a 34 year old player in the first? What about next year when he is 35? 36? And so on...


I assume if he was 39, you wouldn't be drafting him in the first round, right? So it's clear the end is near and you won't want to be holding the bag of **** and waste your 1st rounder on him the year he gets hurt/declines.


That's the hole in your analysis, IMO. At what age do you stop valuing him as a first round player? And at that, if that age is near, wouldn't you rather be a year early than a year late? If dude loses a step or gets hurt, your team is immediately crippled.


Doesn't matter what his positional advantage was last year if he drops off or gets injured this year. Older players get hurt, older players lose a step. He is the most valued 34 year old skill player I've ever seen and I've been doing this close to 2 decades.


Give me a young pup in any other round over the oldest available option in Round 1. Dude was catching passes in the NFL when I was a senior in high school about to be a freshman in college...

Excellent points. Kelce is going off around 5/6 in most mock drafts. The positional advantage is tantalizing there, but let's say he's still good but only 80% of what he was last year, that's a big opportunity cost at that spot. I'd also rather be a year too early than late.

I have 1.06. I hope he goes before I pick. I get the Kelce being a big advantage (VBD) but I just hate how my team looks after taking a TE in Round 1.

 

[FFWhiskey]

Father time is undefeated

I largely agree with your post but Father Time did lose to Tom Brady, badly. Kelce may be another exception but I’m probably not betting on him.

I miss Tommy.

 

[Capella]

Father time is undefeated

I largely agree with your post but Father Time did lose to Tom Brady, badly. Kelce may be another exception but I’m probably not betting on him.

I miss Tommy.

Me too man, me too.

 

[Willem_Dafuq]

@FFCollusion @LawFitz

I appreciate the thoughts you guys are laying out here. Ive seen many of these thoughtful arguments before and agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The thing I always come back to though is, this sort of method puts an awful lot of weight on “projections”. How confident are you in that part of the process?

Maybe you guys are better at it than me, that’s entirely possible, but any time I try to game out stat projections it feels like a lot of guessing occurs. And then if I were to start planning my entire draft off drafting a certain position at a certain time to maximize my chance of getting more of my guys, it’s doubling and tripling down on my projections, which are mostly a series of educated guesses to begin with.

I can get on board so far as “Kelce is way more valuable than you think” or some other general type argument for another player, but if we’re getting as granular as adding up points between various combos and then drafting strictly off the results, that’s where you lose me.

I say this as someone who is just pretty decent at redraft and excellent at dynasty. Maybe that’s why I’m not better (shrug). My approach is more to just study the league, stack up my players takes, and study adp to try to get as many of my guys as possible. Sounds simple but I spend a ton of time studying the league. I don’t have kids so during the season, I’m on the couch with multiple TVs for 12 hours every Sunday. If there’s games on, I’m watching, and that’s been the case for like 30 years now. Then in the off-season, I do a lot of looking back, general news consumption, tons of dynasty digging, and by this time of year I’ve got a pretty good idea of what I think is going to happen and who my guys are. Then add the ADP study as dessert to bring it all together.

I guess my question here is, can you convince me I should be doing something differently? I’d like to better at redraft than I am. Is the answer just as simple as “spend way more time on projections and get better at them”? Can you elaborate on how you build your projections? Or are you relying on like, establish the run or some such service for those with maybe a few adjustments of your own?

Perhaps this is why I prefer dynasty, because it’s a more macro energy toward team management and player takes. My dynasty results have been outstanding. My redraft results are just good to very good.

It's a lose lose scenario.
If I do it with last year's results everyone cries it's hindsight analysis and that it doesn't mean anything for this year.
If I do it with projections of this year, they say projections are meaningless.

So how do you ever present a case of anything? Find me a way to justify any player without using their past production or your projections of their future production. Good luck. But that's what people will ask you to do.

People are stuck in their ways, and will make empty claims. Ask them to prove it, and they'll dodge and just point you to some article they read. Too many arguments on the internet are not based in reality. There has to be a practical application of the method you are presenting for it to be useful to anyone. Comparing WR1 to WR36 has no real world application. Not in a draft room, not when setting your lineup, and not in your weekly matchup. VBD is completely designed around projections. Using it as case of why projections aren't valuable is humorous. The only way to measure the value of Kelce, is by comparing his projection to the baseline player at his position... How do you think they do that? That's right, they compare his projection vs the baseline of other TEs. But it's still based on a projection of points. In essence, it's the exact same thing I did with the draft comparisons, I took the expected points and compared him to the baseline of Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, and Waller. The exact same thing for Saquon and Lamb to the RB and WR I listed. Because those are the real world options available to you on draft day, at the ADPs of every respective player.

I agree with you when it comes to roster construction, the goal is to obtain as many of your flag players as possible... So what do you do when you have 3 TEs you like? How do you decide when and where to draft a TE? Kelce makes it to you in the 1st... Do you just take him? You have to know the answer before you go on the clock whether Kelce + your WR target results in more or less points than passing on Kelce for a WR and getting your 2nd or 3rd TE target... Right? How else do you make the decision when your on the clock and your favorite WR, RB, and TE are all on the board? You just guess?

I have no intent of convincing anyone of doing anything. I share my own insight, my own research, my own math, my own method, and find ways to present it in a way that I hope can be understood and applied to an actual draft. If what I present doesn't make sense to you or doesn't vibe with your outlook, that's okay. I never post expecting my outlook to align with more than 50% of the people who read it. Having read your post, my only recommendation is to have strong opinions and plans before you go on the clock.

So I'll answer your question with a question... You said you identify all of the takes you have and layout the ADPs that help form the players you can realistically expect to get at your draft position... So you tell me... If you have 2 or 3 TE targets in multiple different rounds... How do you decide which target is the better choice to draft around? Lay it out for me and for others to read. I'm always interested to hear how other people are things. But I get the feeling you're going to end up doing the exact same process I already laid out. "Okay well I can have Kelce+Deebo or Lamb+Andrews...". You have to decide before the draft which of those is more valuable to you right? Otherwise what happens when you're on the clock in the 1st round? You're just praying someone drafted the other player so you have an easy decision? That's not where you want to be, lol.

I have the 6th spot in my main league this year. I know I'm probably going to have 3 potential paths in the 1st round. Kelce, Hill, or Bijan. Personally, I make that decision, like you, based on all of the things I expect to happen in the rounds that haven't happened yet, which means I should probably know the answer before the draft.

Not everything is stats. At some point you draw a line in the sand.


Kelce will turn 34 in Week 5. Do you feel comfortable drafting a 34 year old player in the first? What about next year when he is 35? 36? And so on...


I assume if he was 39, you wouldn't be drafting him in the first round, right? So it's clear the end is near and you won't want to be holding the bag of **** and waste your 1st rounder on him the year he gets hurt/declines.


That's the hole in your analysis, IMO. At what age do you stop valuing him as a first round player? And at that, if that age is near, wouldn't you rather be a year early than a year late? If dude loses a step or gets hurt, your team is immediately crippled.


Doesn't matter what his positional advantage was last year if he drops off or gets injured this year. Older players get hurt, older players lose a step. He is the most valued 34 year old skill player I've ever seen and I've been doing this close to 2 decades.


Give me a young pup in any other round over the oldest available option in Round 1. Dude was catching passes in the NFL when I was a senior in high school about to be a freshman in college...

Excellent points. Kelce is going off around 5/6 in most mock drafts. The positional advantage is tantalizing there, but let's say he's still good but only 80% of what he was last year, that's a big opportunity cost at that spot. I'd also rather be a year too early than late.

I feel like his positional advantage last year was exaggerated due to so many other elite TEs underwhelming? I haven’t spent time pouring through numbers to confirm so feel free to correct me. Seems like there could be bounce back years coming from Andrews and Hock(who came on very strong later in the season for Minny).

He had a great season but it was similar to 2021 and 2019. It wasn’t like a huge outlier career year. That bodes well for him doing it again, if he stays healthy. But other (younger) TEs may step it up and it’s not a given he stays healthy. Safe to say I’m torn on Kelce this year as a mid 1st pick