Kelce by himself will beat TE5+TE15 50% of the time.
Kelce + WR50 will beat TE5+WR15 60% of the time.
None of you are starting the 50th WR I hope.
Good post overall, but in start-3-WR leagues, you should be comparing the dropoff to WR36, not WR10. Also, Kelce is being drafted in the first round this year. That means we need to be thinking,
Kelce + late-round WR vs.
Chase/Kupp/Tyreek/AJB/Devante + late-round TE
Makes the decision a bit more difficult, IMO.
Does it though?
Forgive the formatting, you got me curious, so I'm making this up as I go, bear with me.
I'm trying to find a way to help people visualize opportunity cost and the value of alternate positions, across different rounds of a draft.
As always, this is just how I visualize the draft board. It is not the only way, the right way, or whatever, it's just my way.
You don't have to agree with the process, you don't have to agree with the projections, in fact, I highly recommend you use your own projections, or pick any website projections you trust, and do this yourself.
So... How do we account for positional advantages, without using hindsight?
The only practical method I think would apply, is projections.
Step 1: ADP
I'm using Yahoo for ADP and using FantasyPros for Projections. Feel free to use whatever you prefer.
Travis Kelce is currently TE1 drafted 10th overall via Yahoo.
The first RB and WR drafted immediately after Kelce, are Saquon Barkley and C.D. Lamb.
The opportunity cost of drafting Kelce, is Lamb/Saquon.
Step 2: Alternate TE options
Andrews is being drafted in the 3rd round.
Hockenson in the 4th round.
Waller in the 7th.
That's a decent 7 round range of potential/popular TE targets this year.
Step 3: Opportunity cost of the other TEs
The RB and WR drafted immediately after Andrews: J.K. Dobbins and Amari Cooper.
The RB and WR drafted immediately after Hockenson: Miles Sanders and Deebo Samuel
The RB and WR drafted immediately after Waller: Dalvin Cook and Jahan Dotson
Step 4: Projections
Kelce is projected to score 288 fantasy points. (For perspective he scored 316 last year, this is a projected drop of 28 points: 105/1236/10)
Andrews is projected to score 203 fantasy points.
Hockenson is projected to score 197 fantasy points.
Waller is projected to score 174 fantasy points.
Saquon is projected to score 259 fantasy points.
Dobbins is projected to score 180 fantasy points.
Sanders is projected to score 189 fantasy points.
Dalvin is projected to score 144 fantasy points.
Lamb is projected to score 281 fantasy points.
Amari is projected to score 219 fantasy points.
Deebo is projected to score 220 fantasy points.
Dotson is projected to score 178 fantasy points.
Step 5: Combination Totals
1st Round Kelce + 3rd Round Dobbins = 288+180 = 468 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 3rd Round Amari = 288 + 219 = 507 fantasy points.
1st Round Saquon + 3rd Round Andrews = 259 + 203 = 462 fantasy points.
1st Round Lamb + 3rd Round Andrews = 281 + 203 = 484 fantasy points.
As you can see, Kelce and the corresponding position of the 3rd round, will beat Andrews and the corresponding position of the 1st round.
1st Round Kelce + 4th Round Sanders = 288+ 189 = 477 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 4th Round Deebo = 288 + 220 = 508 fantasy points.
1st Round Saquon + 4th Round Hockenson = 259 + 197 = 456 fantasy points.
1st Round Lamb + 4th Round Hockenson = 281 + 197 = 478 fantasy points.
As you can see, Kelce and the corresponding position of the 4th round, will beat Hockenson and the corresponding position of the 1st round.
1st Round Kelce + 7th Round Dalvin = 288+ 144 = 432 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 7th Round Dotson = 288 + 178 = 466 fantasy points.
1st Round
Saquon + 7th Round
Waller = 259 + 174 =
433 fantasy points.
1st Round Lamb + 7th Round Waller = 281 + 174 = 455 fantasy points.
As you can see, Kelce and the corresponding position of the 7th round, will beat Waller and the WR, but lose to Waller and the RB by a single point. Can you actually get Waller in the 7th round? I don't know, but I strictly went off of ADP as of today.
Step 6: Insanity
1st Round Kelce + 5th Round Conner = 288 + 209 = 497 fantasy points.
1st Round Kelce + 5th Round Hopkins = 288 + 208 = 496 fantasy points.
1st Round CMC + 5th Round Kittle = 309 + 174 = 483 fantasy points.
1st Round Jefferson + 5th Round Kittle = 315 + 174 = 489 fantasy points.
Believe it or not... based on the projections... Kelce and the 5th round player of the corresponding position, are projected to outscore both CMC and Justin Jefferson when combined with Kittle. I'll be honest, that one shocked me. Even knowing this... I'm still not sure I could pull the trigger on Kelce over Jefferson, Chase, or CMC. But I always like to challenge my own beliefs.
Step 7: ???
Step 8: Profit
Don't listen to people who use deceiving tactics, like trying to tell you you're taking a full round deficit at every single position on the draft board. It almost sounds plausible when you look at the draft board, but the reality is that in your lineup, your 2nd round pick is still your 2nd round pick. Meaningless terms like RB1, WR1, or where you slot them into your lineup, doesn't actually change anything. You are only swapping 2 positions and the round differential between them carries no value. Points are the only value in fantasy. If a 1st round TE and a 7th round WR outscore a 1st round WR and a 7th round TE, do you care that your WR is at a 6 round deficit to your opponents? No, because their TE is also at a 6 round deficit.
Does TE1 vs TE5 mean the same thing as WR1 to WR5? WR15? Maybe, who knows, who cares? Which combo scores more points in your lineup? That's the ONLY thing that matters. So if someone is trying to trick you into thinking a late round TE5 is proof that TE1 isn't worth a 1st round pick... all you have to do, is simple math. The answer will not always favor the TE. Sometimes the the TE5 might be the right answer. The point is that you need to know how to accurately measure the impact of both players, when put together, in a real world application, that is your fantasy lineup. And in a quantity that actually correlates to fantasy points. TE5 does not have a fantasy value. TE5 does not mean anything to your opponent, weekly matchup, or Win/Loss column.
The only caveat to this, is that once you go beyond the first... 7-9 rounds, you begin comparing players that aren't actually in your lineup. Kelce+15th round WR vs CMC+15th round TE, is not a realistic comparison... because while the 15th round TE could potentially be your starting TE, a 15th round WR wouldn't, and the comparison (again within the reality of how fantasy drafts and lineups actually work) would be with the final starting WR you draft. Meaning a real world comparison would be Kelce+7th round WR vs CMC+15th round TE. From there, it becomes 2 separate conversations, and you have to find the point differential, but you can begin debating the value of the 7th round pick the 2nd scenario would still have. But that's an abstract and unquantifiable discussion. It would be an interesting theoretical and intellectual conversation, but this was intended as a mathematical exercise.
I repeat... this is just 1 sites ADP and 1 sites projections. These results are not the end all be all. You should always use the ADP you feel best represents the platform you will draft on and the tendencies of your own league. You should use your own projections. If you project Kelce for only 250 points this year, obviously the results would be drastically different. More importantly, ADP changes every day, which means that every day the opportunity cost and values will change, in every single round. If Mark Andrews falls to the 4th... there's an entire new comparison to measure. I used a simple method of picking the immediate next WR/RB on the board, but technically speaking you have the option of a plethora of RB/WR options to choose from.
Blah blah blah, this was not intended as a strict rule to follow blindly, or as concrete evidence of why you should draft Kelce over X, Y, Z. It is merely just a way for me to try and share the way I look at positional advantages and their real world effects, to help identify the strategic means you can use to construct fantasy teams on draft day, or even a way to help justify rankings, cheatsheets, or just challenge the narrative that take a TE early puts you at any type of disadvantage. If your projections result in a disadvantage, then you should avoid the combo that equates that way. As far as this experiment goes, passing on Kelce is the real disadvantage.