For the record, my remark about results vs process was definitely not directed toward you. I honestly can't remember if there was a specific post that set me off, or just a general feeling from some posters (I know there was a lot of results-oriented thinking from people complaining about Baltimore going for two after their TD), but my point was not to even bother engaging with those types of arguments. If at this point someone still doesn't understand the concept of results-oriented thinking, we're not going to have a very productive discussion.
Anyway, in your case I get where you're coming from, and I think you said in another post that we probably aren't that far apart, which I would agree with. I come from a direct-marketing background so I'm keenly aware of both the power and limitations of quantitative analysis. IMO the biggest problem is that people think that analytics give them answers, when in fact the most they can give you is confidence intervals. In some cases the intervals will be significant enough that they should guide your decision making, but in others the level of uncertainty will be high and you should weigh other factors into your decision.
In the case of last night I would probably have done the same thing as Harbaugh if I were in his shoes, but I understand your argument and don't think the decision was a total slam dunk. The main point I was pushing back against -- and this was a specific post I remember, although I'm fairly certain it wasn't you -- was the notion that going for it rather than kicking the FG was somehow a turning point in the game. I just don't see any evidence for that at all (unless someone wants to make the "momentum" argument, which, don't get me started.) Baltimore was going to lose that game for reasons that might have had an impact on their ability to convert that 4th down (injuries, uninspired play calling), but definitely weren't caused by the failure. If they had kicked the FG, most likely outcome is that they would have lost by 12 instead of 15.