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Compared to Calvin Johnson? Because that's what you gave for Wells.
I'm pretty sure if I were you I would want this thread to just disappear. Kudos to you for keeping it alive and trying to learn something from your experiment, I guess.I actually got Beanie Gresham Roethlisberger 1.4 and 1.5 . 1.4 turned into greg little and 1.5 turned into Steve smith Car and 1.12ETA: I'd still take Calvin lol
or just stood pat and made the playoffs.Compared to Calvin Johnson? Because that's what you gave for Wells.
I'm pretty sure if I were you I would want this thread to just disappear. Kudos to you for keeping it alive and trying to learn something from your experiment, I guess.Romo, Tony DAL QB Stafford, Matthew DET QB Jones, Felix DAL RB Wells, Beanie ARI RB Murray, DeMarco DAL RBSpiller, C.J. BUF RB Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB Donald Brown IND RBEdwards, Braylon SFO WR Smith, Steve CAR WR Williams, Roy CHI WRBenn, Arrelious TBB WR Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR Little, Greg CLE WR Gates, Clyde MIA WRThomas, Demaryius DEN WRFinley, Jermichael GBP TE Kendricks, Lance STL TEBarth, Connor TBB PKJets, New York NYJ Def......Ok, Some people owe me some apologies, this is officially a stacked dynasty roster...Plus 1.1
You made some great trades above that cause somewhat of a wash because of the clunkers. But you squandered the good players you did aquire along the way in more trades chasing fools gold and not appreciating the real deal when you have it.This proves not everyone has the same idea of fun. Personally I would like to have the best players possible and to win as much as I can. Your management does not seem to be focused on the goal of winning, but rather in acquiring undervalued (maybe) players who even when they do pan out you will sell for more undervalued players thus ensuring you are always in the state of rebuilding no matter how many great players you get.
You made some great trades above that cause somewhat of a wash because of the clunkers. But you squandered the good players you did aquire along the way in more trades chasing fools gold and not appreciating the real deal when you have it.This proves not everyone has the same idea of fun. Personally I would like to have the best players possible and to win as much as I can. Your management does not seem to be focused on the goal of winning, but rather in acquiring undervalued (maybe) players who even when they do pan out you will sell for more undervalued players thus ensuring you are always in the state of rebuilding no matter how many great players you get.
You made some great trades above that cause somewhat of a wash because of the clunkers. But you squandered the good players you did aquire along the way in more trades chasing fools gold and not appreciating the real deal when you have it.This proves not everyone has the same idea of fun. Personally I would like to have the best players possible and to win as much as I can. Your management does not seem to be focused on the goal of winning, but rather in acquiring undervalued (maybe) players who even when they do pan out you will sell for more undervalued players thus ensuring you are always in the state of rebuilding no matter how many great players you get.
lol, wait, no.. that's not my roster anymore man.That is just a bunch of former firsts and early round picks that I don't think should be completely given up on yet.You made some great trades above that cause somewhat of a wash because of the clunkers. But you squandered the good players you did aquire along the way in more trades chasing fools gold and not appreciating the real deal when you have it.This proves not everyone has the same idea of fun. Personally I would like to have the best players possible and to win as much as I can. Your management does not seem to be focused on the goal of winning, but rather in acquiring undervalued (maybe) players who even when they do pan out you will sell for more undervalued players thus ensuring you are always in the state of rebuilding no matter how many great players you get.
It's like clockwork that a few of these 'busts' emerge every year... obviously theres always gonna be guys like Robert meachem who waste a spot on your roster for multiple years... but its worth having these guys on your rosters... simply based on if they 'get it' one of these years.It may take these guys a while... but all are very talented.
haters gonna hate
haters gonna hateNot read all this, but if I'd made the first post I'd not want to bump it. I'd hope it hovered around page 3743 personally
I'm pretty sure that list is a list of those he views as potential 'buy lows', not his actual current roster.Edit: It was also posted before the season, and ended up being not a terrible list.
Yeah, but what has Fitz done for you lately? Even generational talents can suddenly find themselves in horrible situations.
I personally think the guy is a bum but if Bowe is gone there's a slight chance for him. I took him in the 14th round of a startup (instead of the 2.03 rookie pick) and if he doesn't show anything this year I don't have to hang onto him forever like I would a rookie.
Romo, Tony DAL QB Stafford, Matthew DET QB Jones, Felix DAL RB Wells, Beanie ARI RB Murray, DeMarco DAL RBSpiller, C.J. BUF RB Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB Donald Brown IND RBEdwards, Braylon SFO WR Smith, Steve CAR WR Williams, Roy CHI WRBenn, Arrelious TBB WR Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR Little, Greg CLE WR Gates, Clyde MIA WRThomas, Demaryius DEN WRFinley, Jermichael GBP TE Kendricks, Lance STL TEBarth, Connor TBB PKJets, New York NYJ Def......Ok, Some people owe me some apologies, this is officially a stacked dynasty roster...Plus 1.1In one offseason you destroyed a perfectly good team.Compared to Calvin Johnson? Because that's what you gave for Wells.
Yeah, but what has Fitz done for you lately? Even generational talents can suddenly find themselves in horrible situations.Fitz had a pretty darn good 2011. Poor last year, but I definitely expect a rebound this year and for a few years to come. Lately, he has still done more than those other three guys. Probably anyway, who knows who pick 8 was.
Yeah, but what has Fitz done for you lately? Even generational talents can suddenly find themselves in horrible situations.He had 3 top-5 finishes in the last 5 years, and he's still a top 10 WR going forward based on ADP.
He had 3 top-5 finishes in the last 5 years, and he's still a top 10 WR going forward based on ADP.The first part is undeniable, but I would not draft him in the Top 10 right now based on his current situation and future uncertainty. To each his own though.
haters gonna hate1 of 20 calls? Nice work, champ. Where do you Crabtree ranked now? I've got him as WR15. Perhaps you have him at WR10. Nice WR25 to WR10 jump if so. What else do you have to show for your off-season calls? My above presumed possibility of WR18-WR22 was based on Smith's low upside. Obviously there was a significant change in that offense. Which leads me to ask, did you have Kaep as a big buy this off-season and thus factored that in to your "buy" on Crabtree? I appreciate a good bump of a wrong call, but this one feels quite forced.
Perhaps I should have pointed out the bad for more players in this list, but the point I was trying to make with the Crabtree/Ingram comment was the cost to acquire versus the upside of such players - ADP was probably at WR25, but guys that had held Crabtree probably valued closer to WR18-20 at the time (again, another reason why ADP vs. established leagues befuddles me). I could have told you that McCluster/Benn/other jabronis you listed should be on the wire but that wouldn't have been so helpful to anyone trying to learn something. Sometimes I post something on a player that is the current topic when you could take away more and apply to other situations. So I didn't get Crabtree's WR25 to WR12 bump in value. So be it. I weighed Torrey vs. Crabtree last off-season and said to myself... hmm....Torrey is half the price with the same upside. Does that make Crabtree a bad buy last off-season? Not necessarily. It means there were better buys out there. I preferred to pay WR45 price for my now WR12 instead of WR20-25 price for your now WR12. Why? The net for me to deal for Torrey Smith instead of Crabtree is added premium I can use in other trades, or to keep for myself and invest in other guys I've identified as undervalued.I appreciate your both your effort and your enthusiasm, I really do. But until you've got a half-decent body of work, probably barking up the wrong tree with a WR25 to WR12 increase in value, especially considering this list above.I would suggest where you are flawed is how you are watching the game. Based on the list above, you seem to be placing too much weight in the wrong factors. That is where I'd look to change what you are doing. What factors fooled you on guys you bought? What factors did you miss on guys that actually increased a lot in value? Until you do that, your reliance on your eye will be faulty.Good luck
In general, I always try to get the best player in a deal. Anytime I have strayed from that approach the trade hasn't worked out for me. The key is recognizing the "best player." Your approach of acquiring stud players was a more sound approach. Where it failed in execution is that you gave up too much each time for the player, which gutted your depth. I think this is where the title of the thread applies, but with a tweak: The Buy Studs Low Theory.
Then in general, you are losing out on a lot of untapped profit. That said, if you've found you don't do well when estimating an unknown, this is 100% the correct call to keep this method as your bible verse.
He had 3 top-5 finishes in the last 5 years, and he's still a top 10 WR going forward based on ADP.The first part is undeniable, but I would not draft him in the Top 10 right now based on his current situation and future uncertainty. To each his own though.I don't have him in my top 10 either - I have him at 11. As for his situation, situations change fast in the NFL. Two years ago he put up 1400 yards with a combination of Kolb and Skelton at QB - I believe they'll have a better QB than that this year. With even decent QB play he'll a near lock to put up at least 3 more top 10 seasons and could even play into his mid 30's since his game isn't predicated on speed.
Alright, the moral of this story is a named the thread the wrong name... the bigger point I was trying to reach is that perceived value and adp should not be in your thought process when your making trades in your leagues... unless you and another guy are trying to determine what is fair for both... but if you really like a guy you should be willing to pay whatever price you can to get him.furthermore I was also trying to prove the point that guys emerge every year that people cast out as busts, and that I believe there is some type of system/method that you can potentially use to determine what guys you shouldn't quite give up on yet.
1 of 20 calls? Nice work, champ. Where do you Crabtree ranked now? I've got him as WR15. Perhaps you have him at WR10. Nice WR25 to WR10 jump if so. What else do you have to show for your off-season calls? My above presumed possibility of WR18-WR22 was based on Smith's low upside. Obviously there was a significant change in that offense. Which leads me to ask, did you have Kaep as a big buy this off-season and thus factored that in to your "buy" on Crabtree? I appreciate a good bump of a wrong call, but this one feels quite forced.your the one who got specific and talked about Crabtree and how his value had no chance of increasing , champ
With that being said, who are some of the guys from the 2011 and 2012 NFL drafts that you are targeting?
I would certainly not put Torrey Smith on that WR12 pedestal just yet. He had basically the exact same season this year as last, which while nice was nowhere near WR1 area.49 Catches for 855 yards and 8 TD vs 50 catches for 841 yards and 7 TDs a year ago.Compare this to Crabtree - 85 Catches for 1105 yards and 9 TDs. Give him credit, and don't try and temper it with how you picked Torrey instead. Bar none, Crabtree had a MUCH better season.
With that being said, who are some of the guys from the 2011 and 2012 NFL drafts that you are targeting?Yea, it's not that I'm even claiming to know who they are , just saying there is some criteria that some smart person could probably figure out to some probability function lol ... Anywho... On my phone so can't look at all the drafts, but I feel like mark Ingram stands out to me as a guy everyone has given up on . I don't really even like him as a talent but he would definitely fit in... Ryan Mathews is probably a little to high profile , but I wouldn't give up on him yet either
Yea, it's not that I'm even claiming to know who they are , just saying there is some criteria that some smart person could probably figure out to some probability function lol ... Anywho... On my phone so can't look at all the drafts, but I feel like mark Ingram stands out to me as a guy everyone has given up on . I don't really even like him as a talent but he would definitely fit in... Ryan Mathews is probably a little to high profile , but I wouldn't give up on him yet either2011 is pretty limited -- most offensive players taken in rds 1-2 have worked out well... Exceptions:B GabbertJ BaldwinM IngramRy WilliamsT Young2012 has more options, (obviously subject to current owner attitude) some of these guys were comparatively large disappointments, so their stock may have fallen further than the 2011 crew:Mi FloydAJ JenkinsB QuickS HillI Pead'wiscstlatlmia said:
2011 is pretty limited -- most offensive players taken in rds 1-2 have worked out well... Exceptions:B GabbertJ BaldwinM IngramRy WilliamsT Young2012 has more options, (obviously subject to current owner attitude) some of these guys were comparatively large disappointments, so their stock may have fallen further than the 2011 crew:Mi FloydAJ JenkinsB QuickS HillI PeadFloyd may not fit into this as people are still valuing him pretty high, the rest of the list looks great. A few names I would add: Beanie WellsRueben RandleCoby Fleener Devier Posey Alshon JefferyMohamed SanuLamichael JamesGolden TateLeonard HankersonShane VereenGreg LittleThe best part about this is there are so many of them, you should have no problem rostering a bunch of them. these are the type of guys I want on my roster... honestly, I feel like from looking back at the past 5 years or so... I would say it's around 5:1 that one of these guys hits... so probably 4-5 of these guys will end up being top 10-15 fantasy players... just not sure who they are yet.
2011 is pretty limited -- most offensive players taken in rds 1-2 have worked out well... Exceptions:B GabbertJ BaldwinM IngramRy WilliamsT Young2012 has more options, (obviously subject to current owner attitude) some of these guys were comparatively large disappointments, so their stock may have fallen further than the 2011 crew:Mi FloydAJ JenkinsB QuickS HillI PeadFloyd may not fit into this as people are still valuing him pretty high, the rest of the list looks great. A few names I would add: Beanie WellsRueben RandleCoby Fleener Devier Posey Alshon JefferyMohamed SanuLamichael JamesGolden TateLeonard HankersonShane VereenGreg LittleThe best part about this is there are so many of them, you should have no problem rostering a bunch of them. these are the type of guys I want on my roster... honestly, I feel like from looking back at the past 5 years or so... I would say it's around 5:1 that one of these guys hits... so probably 4-5 of these guys will end up being top 10-15 fantasy players... just not sure who they are yet.So you would rather burn several roster spots on lottery tickets in hopes of one of them turning into a stud, instead of just using one spot on someone who is already a known stud ?Haven't read thru whole thread so apologize if I'm misinterpreting. Just curious about your strategy, since that recent list of players from Beanie thru Little scream mediocrity for the most part.
Floyd may not fit into this as people are still valuing him pretty high, the rest of the list looks great. A few names I would add:
