The most important skill in dynasty FF is... (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

...anticipation.

It's the key to selling fading stars before their value plummets and acquiring top players before they become untouchable. If you think about the blue chip dynasty players, some of them have been valued as elite assets throughout their entire careers (Peterson, Calvin, Richardson), but many of them were not originally seen as such (Rodgers, Graham, Foster, Rice, McCoy). If you were able to get them when they were seen as mere mortals, you made out like a bandit. But if you missed out, there's a good chance that you'll never be able to afford them.

With the abundance of information out there, it's become increasingly difficult to get a good deal in a trade. People think the same way and generally have the same taste in players. But if you can anticipate rises and falls in player values, you can potentially get your foot in the door with some of these future top players before they are widely valued as superstars. How well you are able to navigate the uncertainty to buy/hold good players and sell overvalued players will go a long way towards determining how successful your team is.

There are players out there right now like Andrew Hawkins, Randall Cobb, Michael Floyd, Coby Fleener, David Wilson, and Jon Baldwin who have elite potential without the elite price tag. Their futures are uncertain. If they become stars, this might be your only window to buy them. If their potential never materializes, buying them right now will be a big mistake. With that in mind, who are some of the "next big thing" candidates that you're looking to buy? Who are you looking to sell?

 

[Mentos]

Kendall Wright would be one. He has the ability to have multiple 100-catch seasons.

 

[Nucker101]

I like Alshon Jeffery, Jon Baldwin, Nick Foles, Bryce Brown, Bernard Pierce, Shane Vereen and A.J. Jenkins to name a few.

 

[althepostman]

Problem is that for every rice and Rodgers there are fifty busts. Its a combination of knowing your stuff and the amount of lottery tickets you can afford to hold. If you ate carrying a lot of lottery tickets, chances are most aren't startable which affects your present performance.

Many times in dynasty leagues people undervalue older players that still have fantasy relevance (gore, fjax, gates, Gonzalez, Roddy etc...) I like to nab these players at a value and play for the win in the current year.

 

[firstseason1988]

...anticipation. It's the key to selling fading stars before their value plummets and acquiring top players before they become untouchable. If you think about the blue chip dynasty players, some of them have been valued as elite assets throughout their entire careers (Peterson, Calvin, Richardson), but many of them were not originally seen as such (Rodgers, Graham, Foster, Rice, McCoy). If you were able to get them when they were seen as mere mortals, you made out like a bandit. But if you missed out, there's a good chance that you'll never be able to afford them. With the abundance of information out there, it's become increasingly difficult to get a good deal in a trade. People think the same way and generally have the same taste in players. But if you can anticipate rises and falls in player values, you can potentially get your foot in the door with some of these future top players before they are widely valued as superstars. How well you are able to navigate the uncertainty to buy/hold good players and sell overvalued players will go a long way towards determining how successful your team is. There are players out there right now like Andrew Hawkins, Randall Cobb, Michael Floyd, Coby Fleener, David Wilson, and Jon Baldwin who have elite potential without the elite price tag. Their futures are uncertain. If they become stars, this might be your only window to buy them. If their potential never materializes, buying them right now will be a big mistake. With that in mind, who are some of the "next big thing" candidates that you're looking to buy? Who are you looking to sell?

Yes, like rostering Leshoure 2 weeks ago, before he had a good day. Got him off the waiver wire in two leagues, would have drafted him but too much value to draft him, he was nice to have sitting there when my drafted value fell short.

 

[GunslingerEnder]

Its tough with the overload of information out there you have to trust your gut and ride a guy until he is about to fade but while he is still producing. Getting lucky helps too.

Having that eyefor a situation before others as well. But as a finley owner sometimes you take your pumps. Plus, a guy like Matt Flynn kept for a couple of years and then maybe went to the wrong place or was just very holding the system he was in...my guess is he ends up back in green bay once his contact expires

 

[GunslingerEnder]

Lots of typos cuz my phone sorry.

 

[EBF]

Problem is that for every rice and Rodgers there are fifty busts. Its a combination of knowing your stuff and the amount of lottery tickets you can afford to hold. If you ate carrying a lot of lottery tickets, chances are most aren't startable which affects your present performance.

Fifty is probably a stretch, but your general point is right. Part of the trick is knowing which projects have real potential and which don't. Obviously it is much easier said than done. I've held junk players for years and also dropped future stars like Cruz. I find that merely paying attention is helpful. This year I looked at almost every RB/WR/TE drafted and also checked final 53 man rosters to see which players and UDFAs made teams. If you know who these players are beforehand and you already have their names in the back of your mind, you're in better position to pounce if they show signs of life.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

For me in non-dynasty, the most important skill is roster management....which ties in to anticipation. When to hold, when to fold.

 

[Biabreakable]

The more competitive the league the more difficult it becomes to stay ahead of common knowledge. That is where being able to anticipate changes is one of the few ways left to get an edge. At the same time I have rostered players who were not startable for several years waiting for them to pan out and that roster slot could have been put to better use. One thing that used to really burn me up was losing to players I had to abandon earlier in their careers who finally put it together later in their career. I already tipped my hand when I drafted these guys, but I didn't think it through enough to realize I should just leave them as free agents on my watch list until they give me reason to roster them.

Because of this I am less interested in having late round rookie draft picks for flyers. If the player lasts that long in the draft they are likely safe on the wire also. I would rather keep a free roster spot for free agents and trade the picks for future picks or whatever I could get for them.

 

[FF Ninja]

Yes, like rostering Leshoure 2 weeks ago, before he had a good day. Got him off the waiver wire in two leagues, would have drafted him but too much value to draft him, he was nice to have sitting there when my drafted value fell short.

LeShoure was unrostered in two dynasty leagues? The guy only put up 3.8 ypc against a terrible run D, so let's not get too excited, but he still should have been rostered in any dynasty format.

 

[EBF]

Because of this I am less interested in having late round rookie draft picks for flyers. If the player lasts that long in the draft they are likely safe on the wire also. I would rather keep a free roster spot for free agents and trade the picks for future picks or whatever I could get for them.

I'm starting to come around to this. It really depends on the league though. Roster sizes in my leagues range from 20-30, and the difference really affects how many gambles you can take and for how long. I was able to keep Victor Cruz in my league with 30 man rosters, but I cut him from 1-2 teams in my smaller roster leagues before his breakout because of the roster crunch. An obvious solution in shallow leagues is to try to package your late draft picks for future picks, higher picks, or a player/prospect.

 

[FF Ninja]

What was everyone's anticipation on Charles Rogers after his rookie year?

Charles Rogers rookie game log (broken clavicle in week 5):

week rec yds td1 4 38 22 4 38 03 6 54 04 4 62 15 4 54 0
Personally, I think the most important thing is harvesting the opportunity to buy low. Keep in touch with all the owners and figure out who is in the mood for a fire sale or willing to lose some value to win now.

 

[SSOG]

Anticipation is an important skill, but the most important skill in any format is talent evaluation. Get good players. That might be easier/cheaper if you have good anticipation, but the truth is, Victor Cruz scores just as many points for you whether you grabbed him off the street or traded top-5 WR value to acquire him.

These days, a lot of people outsource their talent evaluation. That just makes it even more important for you to do your own if you want to differentiate yourself from the pack.

 

[Biabreakable]

What was everyone's anticipation on Charles Rogers after his rookie year?Charles Rogers rookie game log (broken clavicle in week 5):

week rec yds td1      4  38  22      4  38  03      6  54  04      4  62  15      4  54  0

Personally, I think the most important thing is harvesting the opportunity to buy low. Keep in touch with all the owners and figure out who is in the mood for a fire sale or willing to lose some value to win now.

I was lucky to draft Andre Johnson instead of Rogers who was picked ahead of me. I did like Johnson more but Rogers looked set up for success except for the fact that the Lions really sucked at that time and Rogers was injured, never reaching his potential.My question is how long do you wait on a guy like this? For most owners I am guessing 3 years unless they are able to move him before that.

 

[EBF]

Well, the groupthink also causes a number of trendy sleepers to be drafted way above where their talent level warrants every year.

So I guess that's nice.

 

[MAC_32]

Get to the cheap labor breakouts before others. SSOG is dead on, talent eval is the key.

Getting to Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Wes Welker, Peyton Hillis, Jimmy Graham, Victor Cruz, etc. before others is how I've built my team. Acquire them to build depth then trade off the depth for #1's and studs. You can let a player die on your team if the right trading opportunity never presents itself, but you have to make sure the cupboard is full behind him.

 

[pittstownkiller]

Anticipation is an important skill, but the most important skill in any format is talent evaluation. Get good players. That might be easier/cheaper if you have good anticipation, but the truth is, Victor Cruz scores just as many points for you whether you grabbed him off the street or traded top-5 WR value to acquire him. These days, a lot of people outsource their talent evaluation. That just makes it even more important for you to do your own if you want to differentiate yourself from the pack.

Yep.I think that a key component in dynasty is to have a solid starting lineup and cull talent in your reserves; too many times you have guys chasing the hot hand and letting truly talented players fall off their roster during the pursuit.

 

[cstu]

Anticipation seems to be a result of talent evaluation. If you can evaluate talent well you can make good decisions. It is however the hardest thing to master.

The guys who I've see do well in dynasty have one thing in common - they aren't afraid to make moves. Not just trades, even though that is an important part of it - but being on top of the waiver wire.

 

[jwb]

Well, the groupthink also causes a number of trendy sleepers to be drafted way above where their talent level warrants every year. So I guess that's nice.

Two things I have definitely stopped doing is drafting for need, and drafting for situation. Especially in (mid to late) round 1 RB's (the top of the class is usually pretty clear). Someone else can have Daniel Thomas and Hillman because they were drafted into good situations.

 

[squistion]

Anticipation seems to be a result of talent evaluation. If you can evaluate talent well you can make good decisions. It is however the hardest thing to master.

The guys who I've see do well in dynasty have one thing in common - they aren't afraid to make moves. Not just trades, even though that is an important part of it - but being on top of the waiver wire.

Amen.

 

[chinawildman]

Anticipation is an important skill, but the most important skill in any format is talent evaluation. Get good players. That might be easier/cheaper if you have good anticipation, but the truth is, Victor Cruz scores just as many points for you whether you grabbed him off the street or traded top-5 WR value to acquire him. These days, a lot of people outsource their talent evaluation. That just makes it even more important for you to do your own if you want to differentiate yourself from the pack.

I agree with this. The game of FF has changed with the quantity of information and free advice flowing out there. It's easy to find consensus information on developing situations and news blurbs like rotoworld that speculate on opportunities or potential for breakout. However to be able to use an eye for talent to filter out the "true" breakout candidates is vital.

 

[mr roboto]

Subset of anticipation is grabbing guys cheap or off WW when folks have given up. In my league someone dropped Roddy. Another guy sold Rodgers cheap.

My greatest trade ever was getting DWill and Turner the year before they both broke out. Sold LT and Portis and something else. Got a 2nd round rookie pick which turned into Slaton. 3 of the top 5 RB in 2008 and a championship.

It seems like patience is lacking with so many rookies having big success right away.

 

[chinawildman]

There are players out there right now like Andrew Hawkins, Randall Cobb, Michael Floyd, Coby Fleener, David Wilson, and Jon Baldwin who have elite potential without the elite price tag. Their futures are uncertain. If they become stars, this might be your only window to buy them. If their potential never materializes, buying them right now will be a big mistake. With that in mind, who are some of the "next big thing" candidates that you're looking to buy? Who are you looking to sell?

I think Cobb and Hawkins look like the real deal. Floyd and Fleener just don't look very special, and Wilson looks like he has no vision whatsoever.In my experience a player has plus potential when he possesses multiple traits that put him in the top 5% of the NFL in that one area, whether be it quickness, vision, speed, hands, power, instincts, route-running, etc.. A guy like Welker has made a living off his quickness and route running where as other guys like Boldin have feasted off their power and hands. Cruz has exceptional separation skills and balance.

That said, one guy that I've been impressed by thus far is Lamar Miller.

 

[MAC_32]

I trust Hawkins so much that I parted with Greg Jennings, these are the types of trades I make. Get a developmental guy, if he hits and I feel like it will stick, trade a veteran at the same position and get back #1 pick(s). Then throw more darts.

Buy low/sell high isn't an easy strategy anymore, just too much info out there - have to be ahead of others on prospects. I mean, I'll take my shots when they're there - just doesn't happen often.

 

[DoubleG]

I would suggest another "skill" (slthough it might be classified as a thing to avoid):

DON'T CHASE THE FUTURE AT THE EXPENSE OF THE PRESENT

Every dynasty league seems to have one guy who will trade aging (but not "old"...yet) stars off a team that can win this year (and possibly next) for the "next _________". The problem is someone will win this year - and he just guaranteed it won't be him....again. Because he is assembling a great team...for 2 years from now...again.

Youth is an important thing is dynasty leagues - but it's not the only thing. Before you start thinking about what 28+ year old RB or 30 year old WR you can flip for young prospects, you should survey the landscape in your league. If you, in all honesty (that's key, btw - going back to SSOG's point on talent eval) think you have the best team to win this year - do yourslef a favor: pay yourself for all the hard work you've put in by winning the title. As F&L always said "Championship banners fly forever" - and the check always cashes. SOMEONE is going to win this year - why not let it be you?

Honestly, sometimes I think dynasty player get so focussed on the future they forget about the present season. That's why guys like S. Smith, Reggie Wayne, F. Jackson, and others are sometimes horribly undervalued in dynasty. Someone rattled off a list of youn, cheap WRs - at the beggining of the season, in most dynasty leagues, you could have easily gotten Wayne, S. Smith, D. Amendola, N. Washington, A. Boldin - all cheaper. And if you had, you'd have a bunch of top 20 starters right now.

I think at the WR position especially, you can assemble some great depth with simple, unsexy, consistant productive vets. You can spend a lot of roster spots trying to land the next Cruz or Colston, but history suggests you're more likely to end up with one -week wonders and Jericho Cotchery/James Hardy type guys. Chasing "young WRs with upside" can drive you crazier than trying to figure out which RB Shanny is going to start.

 

[squistion]

I would suggest another "skill" (slthough it might be classified as a thing to avoid):

DON'T CHASE THE FUTURE AT THE EXPENSE OF THE PRESENT

From my Dynasty 101 class:The only year you can win is the one you are currently competing in

 

[therush]

See my post re: Morris, Alfred-

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=655583&st=150

And now see my post a few days ago re: Grimes, Joshua-

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=658906&st=0

 

[Ilov80s]

Anticipation seems to be a result of talent evaluation. If you can evaluate talent well you can make good decisions. It is however the hardest thing to master.

The guys who I've see do well in dynasty have one thing in common - they aren't afraid to make moves. Not just trades, even though that is an important part of it - but being on top of the waiver wire.

Amen.

Not just dynasty, but all formats. I have already traded twice, both involved big name players. I've made waiver moves every week and have been spending my ww cash. Other teams are holding on to their money. What are they waiting for? They say they just want to see how their team looks. We are 20% of the way into our ff regular season, how many games do you need to lose before you realize your team is flawed?

 

[DoubleG]

Anticipation seems to be a result of talent evaluation. If you can evaluate talent well you can make good decisions. It is however the hardest thing to master.

The guys who I've see do well in dynasty have one thing in common - they aren't afraid to make moves. Not just trades, even though that is an important part of it - but being on top of the waiver wire.

Amen.

Not just dynasty, but all formats. I have already traded twice, both involved big name players. I've made waiver moves every week and have been spending my ww cash. Other teams are holding on to their money. What are they waiting for? They say they just want to see how their team looks. We are 20% of the way into our ff regular season, how many games do you need to lose before you realize your team is flawed?

Pride can cripple a team/owner. Owners that can't admit the early draft pick for James Starks or K. Moreno was a mistake, so they hang on, hoping he'll turn into the player they hoped = deadly. You've got to man up - realize you were mistaken and move on.

 

[SSOG]

I would suggest another "skill" (slthough it might be classified as a thing to avoid):

DON'T CHASE THE FUTURE AT THE EXPENSE OF THE PRESENT

Every dynasty league seems to have one guy who will trade aging (but not "old"...yet) stars off a team that can win this year (and possibly next) for the "next _________". The problem is someone will win this year - and he just guaranteed it won't be him....again. Because he is assembling a great team...for 2 years from now...again.

Youth is an important thing is dynasty leagues - but it's not the only thing. Before you start thinking about what 28+ year old RB or 30 year old WR you can flip for young prospects, you should survey the landscape in your league. If you, in all honesty (that's key, btw - going back to SSOG's point on talent eval) think you have the best team to win this year - do yourslef a favor: pay yourself for all the hard work you've put in by winning the title. As F&L always said "Championship banners fly forever" - and the check always cashes. SOMEONE is going to win this year - why not let it be you?

Honestly, sometimes I think dynasty player get so focussed on the future they forget about the present season. That's why guys like S. Smith, Reggie Wayne, F. Jackson, and others are sometimes horribly undervalued in dynasty. Someone rattled off a list of youn, cheap WRs - at the beggining of the season, in most dynasty leagues, you could have easily gotten Wayne, S. Smith, D. Amendola, N. Washington, A. Boldin - all cheaper. And if you had, you'd have a bunch of top 20 starters right now.

I think at the WR position especially, you can assemble some great depth with simple, unsexy, consistant productive vets. You can spend a lot of roster spots trying to land the next Cruz or Colston, but history suggests you're more likely to end up with one -week wonders and Jericho Cotchery/James Hardy type guys. Chasing "young WRs with upside" can drive you crazier than trying to figure out which RB Shanny is going to start.

I always say that young WR prospects with upside are the most overrated asset in dynasty leagues. At any given moment, there are 20-30 of them. Unfortunately, simple math says most are going to bust- there simply aren't 20 open spots in the top 20, to say nothing of the top 10. Some of those spots are going to Calvin, Green, Julio, Fitz, Harvin, Nicks, Roddy, Cruz... Even less sexy names like Austin, Colston, or Jennings. Everyone has their favorites, but they're plentiful and easy to replenish. They're perfect trade bait. Sometimes you trade away the next Miles Austin, Pierre Garçon, or Mike Wallace (to name three guys I gave up before they exploded). Other times you trade away the next Mike Sims-Walker, Brandon Tate, Earl Bennett, or Andre Roberts (to name four guys I gave up before they imploded). If you look at the trades on the net, I'm probably currently behind in net value, but any such analysis ignores one simple fact- I never could have added Austin if I hadn't first traded Garçon. I couldn't have added Wallace if I hadn't churned through MSW and Tate first. It's not about whether I've gotten more value than I've given up (I haven't, but I'm not too far behind), it's whether I've made a net profit. And I have. At the cost of two roster spots and some waiver moves, I've added extra firsts, upgraded my RB corps, and restocked with a couple more young WR prospects with upside.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Agree that talent evaluation is the #1 skill for dynasty. At any given time there are only a handful of cheap/available players who might develop into top end talent. You have to acquire them when they're undervalued.

A related skill I think gets overlooked is patience. It's no good being able to ID talent if you aren't holding them when they turn into a weekly asset.

 

[SSOG]

Agree that talent evaluation is the #1 skill for dynasty. At any given time there are only a handful of cheap/available players who might develop into top end talent. You have to acquire them when they're undervalued.A related skill I think gets overlooked is patience. It's no good being able to ID talent if you aren't holding them when they turn into a weekly asset.

Impatience can be a virtue, too. If I run a pawn shop, it's nice to get a big ticket item that will net me $1000 profit, even if it has to sit for a year. If I fill my shelves with nothing but those items, though, I'm going to go out of business. My shelf space is limited. I need to devote some of it to items that will net me a $10 profit next week. And sometimes, if I can get enough of those $10 items, and I can flip them fast enough, I can actually make more of a profit per unit of shelf space from them than I could from a big ticket item.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Agree that talent evaluation is the #1 skill for dynasty. At any given time there are only a handful of cheap/available players who might develop into top end talent. You have to acquire them when they're undervalued.A related skill I think gets overlooked is patience. It's no good being able to ID talent if you aren't holding them when they turn into a weekly asset.

Impatience can be a virtue, too. If I run a pawn shop, it's nice to get a big ticket item that will net me $1000 profit, even if it has to sit for a year. If I fill my shelves with nothing but those items, though, I'm going to go out of business. My shelf space is limited. I need to devote some of it to items that will net me a $10 profit next week. And sometimes, if I can get enough of those $10 items, and I can flip them fast enough, I can actually make more of a profit per unit of shelf space from them than I could from a big ticket item.

Yeah, there are some guys in my dynos that go this route and do it well. I'm just not one of them.

 

[imagroid]

Anticipation is an important skill, but the most important skill in any format is talent evaluation. Get good players. That might be easier/cheaper if you have good anticipation, but the truth is, Victor Cruz scores just as many points for you whether you grabbed him off the street or traded top-5 WR value to acquire him. These days, a lot of people outsource their talent evaluation. That just makes it even more important for you to do your own if you want to differentiate yourself from the pack.

A lot of people outsource projections. We ALL outsource talent evaluation via the NFL draft. Sure, some people might put rg3>luck or Randle>Quick, but most of that is minor tweaks that imo are mostly due to trying to stand out. Obviously nobody on the planet had morris>pead post draft, but now everyone does. All rankings, even yours, are reactive to what is going on the NFL NOW. 1 month ago you had Morris in the 70's and now he's 21. Is that because you evaluated his talent and came to that conclusion, or because a month ago he was a 6th round pick buried on the depth chart and not worth a damn? I understand that rankings are not 100% a measure of talent, but by your own admission, your rankings are more talent based than most. There is some skill in FF, but imo, it has zero to do with this perceived notion that anyone here has a more keen eye for talent than the masses. To me, the skill in FF is drafting based on VBD and diligence on the waiver wire. I mean let's get real here...did anyone draft Arian Foster in the 1st round of rookie drafts the year he went undrafted??? NO, yet you guys will go on about his "talent". It's just a way to make you guys feel better about yourself. Kinda ridiculous imo.

 

[cstu]

did anyone draft Arian Foster in the 1st round of rookie drafts the year he went undrafted??? NO, yet you guys will go on about his "talent". It's just a way to make you guys feel better about yourself.

Professionals getting paid millions of dollars and putting their career on the line didn't draft Foster either.All 32 NFL teams passed on Tom Brady at least five times.

 

[EBF]

Situation counts too. If you want to talk about talent, Morris might not even be a top 50 tailback in the league, but he has something guys like Bernard Pierce, Jonathan Stewart, Ben Tate, Mark Ingram, and Robert Turbin don't: the opportunity to be the unquestioned lead back for a team. You can say he earned this position because of his talent, but really...how hard is it to beat out Helu and Royster? Neither is an above average NFL back.

As for Foster, he's another guy who benefited from situation. Is he more talented than people gave him credit for? He must be, but he also benefits from playing in a perfect system that inflates his FF value. If you are a good enough RB to make a team's 53 man roster, chances are good that you can produce some FF numbers if you're given 20 touches every game on a dynamic offense.

As for the talent evaluation debate, I think most people (myself included) overrate their own ability to separate the wheat from the chaff, but I also think it's pretty clear that some people do it better than others. If you can avoid 1-2 of the obvious grenades in each draft class and maybe identify 1-2 underrated late picks, it will really help you in the long run. A small difference will accumulate over time.

 

[imagroid]

did anyone draft Arian Foster in the 1st round of rookie drafts the year he went undrafted??? NO, yet you guys will go on about his "talent". It's just a way to make you guys feel better about yourself.

Professionals getting paid millions of dollars and putting their career on the line didn't draft Foster either.All 32 NFL teams passed on Tom Brady at least five times.

Exactly, and now we will tout their "talent" left and right. Was that because it was evaluated from the get-go, or because we are reacting to what we see on the field? If it's reactive, it has nothing to do with this so called talent evaluation. My greater point I guess, is that "talent evaluation" is merely a hit/miss on guessing, and/or reacting to what we ALL (or the people we listen to) see. Nobody here saw something NFL talent evaluators didn't. We relied on THEIR evaluation to guide ours. Which was the point I made about SSOG's contention that he somehow evaluates talent on his own, and we all outsource ours.

 

[imagroid]

As for the talent evaluation debate, I think most people (myself included) overrate their own ability to separate the wheat from the chaff, but I also think it's pretty clear that some people do it better than others. If you can avoid 1-2 of the obvious grenades in each draft class and maybe identify 1-2 underrated late picks, it will really help you in the long run. A small difference will accumulate over time.

I completely agree that people overrate their own ability, and I also agree that some may be marginally better, but it's not significant enough to really even mention considering we are talking about a sample size <100 (and more like 20ish). Certainly NOWHERE NEAR the most important skill in FF. As to your last statement, I think that is part of the luck factor. If you were consistently taking guys several rounds early and constantly hitting I might listen, but really it's a matter of marginal differences (i.e. using late 1sts on guys that go late 2nd). It's marginal. Nobody is taking undrafted guys in the 1st round...ever. Yet undrafted guys become studs in the NFL often. There is just far too much information readily available that the idea you can differentiate yourself based on your eyeball (not you specifically) is kinda laughable.

 

[I was in the pool]

Anticipation is an important skill, but the most important skill in any format is talent evaluation. Get good players. That might be easier/cheaper if you have good anticipation, but the truth is, Victor Cruz scores just as many points for you whether you grabbed him off the street or traded top-5 WR value to acquire him. These days, a lot of people outsource their talent evaluation. That just makes it even more important for you to do your own if you want to differentiate yourself from the pack.

I like that phrase...outsource their talent evaluation. Many outsource most of their FF owner decisions as well. At some point it is your team.

 

[EBF]

As for the talent evaluation debate, I think most people (myself included) overrate their own ability to separate the wheat from the chaff, but I also think it's pretty clear that some people do it better than others. If you can avoid 1-2 of the obvious grenades in each draft class and maybe identify 1-2 underrated late picks, it will really help you in the long run. A small difference will accumulate over time.

I completely agree that people overrate their own ability, and I also agree that some may be marginally better, but it's not significant enough to really even mention considering we are talking about a sample size <100 (and more like 20ish). Certainly NOWHERE NEAR the most important skill in FF. As to your last statement, I think that is part of the luck factor. If you were consistently taking guys several rounds early and constantly hitting I might listen, but really it's a matter of marginal differences (i.e. using late 1sts on guys that go late 2nd). It's marginal. Nobody is taking undrafted guys in the 1st round...ever. Yet undrafted guys become studs in the NFL often. There is just far too much information readily available that the idea you can differentiate yourself based on your eyeball (not you specifically) is kinda laughable.

Sure, but if you covet an undrafted player, why would you spend a first round rookie pick on him when he will probably be there in the fourth? Nobody in my FF leagues gets all of their rookie picks right or always makes the correct decision on whether to buy/sell an unknown quantity, but I'd venture to guess that some do it quite a bit better than others.

 

[SSOG]

Anticipation is an important skill, but the most important skill in any format is talent evaluation. Get good players. That might be easier/cheaper if you have good anticipation, but the truth is, Victor Cruz scores just as many points for you whether you grabbed him off the street or traded top-5 WR value to acquire him. These days, a lot of people outsource their talent evaluation. That just makes it even more important for you to do your own if you want to differentiate yourself from the pack.

A lot of people outsource projections. We ALL outsource talent evaluation via the NFL draft. Sure, some people might put rg3>luck or Randle>Quick, but most of that is minor tweaks that imo are mostly due to trying to stand out. Obviously nobody on the planet had morris>pead post draft, but now everyone does. All rankings, even yours, are reactive to what is going on the NFL NOW. 1 month ago you had Morris in the 70's and now he's 21. Is that because you evaluated his talent and came to that conclusion, or because a month ago he was a 6th round pick buried on the depth chart and not worth a damn? I understand that rankings are not 100% a measure of talent, but by your own admission, your rankings are more talent based than most. There is some skill in FF, but imo, it has zero to do with this perceived notion that anyone here has a more keen eye for talent than the masses. To me, the skill in FF is drafting based on VBD and diligence on the waiver wire. I mean let's get real here...did anyone draft Arian Foster in the 1st round of rookie drafts the year he went undrafted??? NO, yet you guys will go on about his "talent". It's just a way to make you guys feel better about yourself. Kinda ridiculous imo.

For the record, those aren't my rankings. They're posted by Jason Kirsner. Great guy, good rankings, highly recommended... but not mine. As to your larger point... I never claimed to be a rookie scout. That's not what I do. So yes, you're right, I heavily outsource my rookie evaluations to guys like EBF, Wesseling, Waldman, and most of all, the professional NFL scouts who get paid to make those judgments. I have no problem admitting that. My time is a limited resource, and it must be allocated wisely. The rookie draft is the only time when all 32 NFL franchises will collaborate and collectively, transparently, and explicitly state what a player's expected value is. Attempting to improve on that consensus would be extraordinarily difficult, very costly in terms of time required, and any gains would be marginal. In other words, it's just not worth it for me. I'll gladly outsource all rookie evaluations and spend my time where it can be used more productively. After the rookie draft, though, things change. From then on, the NFL doesn't collaborate and reach an explicit consensus on a player's value until that player hits free agency. Contract extensions also make a player's value explicit, and while lack of competition serves to make them less illustrative than a FA bidding war, the player's agent typically has a vested interest in making accurate judgments about the player's value on the open market, so they're fairly reliable, as well. In both of these cases, I am a very strong proponent of heavily incorporating the additional information into my rankings. I'm a big fan of telling people to "follow the money" when they feel the urge to get too counterintuitive. As with the rookie draft, I don't think my time is wisely spent trying to improve on NFL front offices' valuations, so I save it and spend it elsewhere where it'll get me more bang for my buck.This still leaves me with a lot of areas where I can gain an edge, though. There are huge stretches in a player's career, years at a time, between when the NFL professionals have placed an explicit valuation on him. During that time, everyone is flying blind, and an edge can be gained. It is here that you get the biggest returns for your investment of time. And yes, during this period, I do attempt to do consistent re-evaluations of a player's talent. If a guy like Morris shoots up my board, it's because he was originally a guy who I knew nothing about (remember, I outsourced my rookie evals), and now I'm seeing him and making judgments for the first time. And, yes, some of it is situational, too. Even if your talent doesn't change, going from 3rd string to 1st string will boost your value.When I had more time to devote to this hobby, I literally watched every NFL game, most of them twice, and took notes on who was looking better or worse than I originally thought. Sometimes, that's a snapshot of who is producing. Sometimes, that's a snapshot of who is performing but not yet producing, or producing but not yet performing. Sometimes I was wrong. Sometimes I was right. And even when I was devoting that much time, I always outsourced a portion of my evaluations in an attempt to guard against biases- just like how GMs still have a scouting department filled with people they trust to give reliable second opinions. As my time has dwindled, so have my chances for evaluation. I don't watch every game twice anymore. Now I might just get 8 hours of redzone, and that'll be it for the week. I still try to use that time as productively as possible- I look for people who are looking impressive, and I make an effort to acquire them. I look for people who are struggling, and I make an effort to sell them. I check my impressions against those of others, but I still find it important to reach my own conclusions. As everyone else starts getting more and more of their opinions out-of-house, I find proprietary, in-house opinions to be an advantage. I don't think I'm a great talent evaluator, but it at least gives me additional information not available to the rest of the league.

 

[SSOG]

did anyone draft Arian Foster in the 1st round of rookie drafts the year he went undrafted??? NO, yet you guys will go on about his "talent". It's just a way to make you guys feel better about yourself.

Professionals getting paid millions of dollars and putting their career on the line didn't draft Foster either.All 32 NFL teams passed on Tom Brady at least five times.

Exactly, and now we will tout their "talent" left and right. Was that because it was evaluated from the get-go, or because we are reacting to what we see on the field? If it's reactive, it has nothing to do with this so called talent evaluation. My greater point I guess, is that "talent evaluation" is merely a hit/miss on guessing, and/or reacting to what we ALL (or the people we listen to) see. Nobody here saw something NFL talent evaluators didn't. We relied on THEIR evaluation to guide ours. Which was the point I made about SSOG's contention that he somehow evaluates talent on his own, and we all outsource ours.

I never said you all outsource your talent evaluation. Anyone who posts on a FF message board probably devotes enough time and effort to the hobby to have progressed beyond the "blindly following a cheat sheet" stage. They're also just a tiny minority of the overall fantasy community.

 

[footballnerd]

As for the talent evaluation debate, I think most people (myself included) overrate their own ability to separate the wheat from the chaff, but I also think it's pretty clear that some people do it better than others. If you can avoid 1-2 of the obvious grenades in each draft class and maybe identify 1-2 underrated late picks, it will really help you in the long run. A small difference will accumulate over time.

I completely agree that people overrate their own ability, and I also agree that some may be marginally better, but it's not significant enough to really even mention considering we are talking about a sample size <100 (and more like 20ish). Certainly NOWHERE NEAR the most important skill in FF. As to your last statement, I think that is part of the luck factor. If you were consistently taking guys several rounds early and constantly hitting I might listen, but really it's a matter of marginal differences (i.e. using late 1sts on guys that go late 2nd). It's marginal. Nobody is taking undrafted guys in the 1st round...ever. Yet undrafted guys become studs in the NFL often. There is just far too much information readily available that the idea you can differentiate yourself based on your eyeball (not you specifically) is kinda laughable.

not many on these boards will get in line and take players to FBGs rankings player for player, everyone is adding their own talent evaluation to a certain degree. bumping so and so over another may be small in comparison to scouting evaluations of some college or high school player, but that is utilizing evaluation. Just an example, but I'll admit I reached and probably could of waited on taking Harvin this year, but I was set and making sure I got him.

 

[coolnerd]

The problem with the idea of "talent evaluation" is that too many times on this board the word "talent" actually means pure athletic ability versus highly skilled football player. I could on both sides list players who have been overrated because they are raw athletes and not good football players, and good football players who are marginal to average athletes that are consistently underrated.

 

[footballnerd]

The problem with the idea of "talent evaluation" is that too many times on this board the word "talent" actually means pure athletic ability versus highly skilled football player. I could on both sides and list players who have been overrated because they are raw athletes and not good football players, and good football players who are marginal to average athletes that are consistently underrated.

This is true, fantasy football talent evaluation would combine that with situation and opportunity.

 

[SSOG]

As for the talent evaluation debate, I think most people (myself included) overrate their own ability to separate the wheat from the chaff, but I also think it's pretty clear that some people do it better than others. If you can avoid 1-2 of the obvious grenades in each draft class and maybe identify 1-2 underrated late picks, it will really help you in the long run. A small difference will accumulate over time.

I completely agree that people overrate their own ability, and I also agree that some may be marginally better, but it's not significant enough to really even mention considering we are talking about a sample size <100 (and more like 20ish). Certainly NOWHERE NEAR the most important skill in FF. As to your last statement, I think that is part of the luck factor. If you were consistently taking guys several rounds early and constantly hitting I might listen, but really it's a matter of marginal differences (i.e. using late 1sts on guys that go late 2nd). It's marginal. Nobody is taking undrafted guys in the 1st round...ever. Yet undrafted guys become studs in the NFL often. There is just far too much information readily available that the idea you can differentiate yourself based on your eyeball (not you specifically) is kinda laughable.

At the end of the day, it didn't matter last year if you were as high on Victor Cruz as he deserved. It only matters if you were higher on him than anyone else in your league. I'm not suggesting that anyone here is a professional scout. I'm suggesting that there are marginal gains to be made, and those marginal gains are more than enough to create a sizeable advantage.

 

[Biabreakable]

I was reading somewhere yesterday that actual action in a football game is around 21 minutes. The rest is clock winding setting up the next play. So if this is true that means there are 336 minutes of action to watch each week or 5.6 hours. I think Redzone is even less than that as they mostly just show the big plays and scoring plays. I don't see the need for watching that for 8 hours. When I have watched red zone it seemed to me I could see most of their material in less than an hour. Or just watching highlights on NFL.com to fill the gaps of games you do not watch in their entirety.

I think the time would be better spent crunching numbers, team stats and player stats, evaluating injuries and team tendencies. Some loose projections based off of current data tells me more than watching a great play does. When I notice things from the numbers I might want to go watch the games in question to clear up some of the head scratchers, but in the end FF is based on stats so staying on top of current stats is just as relevant to me as watching the games and for me and I think a bit more important for my evaluation than watching plays are.

 

[chinawildman]

I was reading somewhere yesterday that actual action in a football game is around 21 minutes. The rest is clock winding setting up the next play. So if this is true that means there are 336 minutes of action to watch each week or 5.6 hours. I think Redzone is even less than that as they mostly just show the big plays and scoring plays. I don't see the need for watching that for 8 hours. When I have watched red zone it seemed to me I could see most of their material in less than an hour. Or just watching highlights on NFL.com to fill the gaps of games you do not watch in their entirety. I think the time would be better spent crunching numbers, team stats and player stats, evaluating injuries and team tendencies. Some loose projections based off of current data tells me more than watching a great play does. When I notice things from the numbers I might want to go watch the games in question to clear up some of the head scratchers, but in the end FF is based on stats so staying on top of current stats is just as relevant to me as watching the games and for me and I think a bit more important for my evaluation than watching plays are.

two words - Game Rewind.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Patience