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The move for two was the correct statistical move (1 Viewer)


As unconventional and risky as it seemed, Shanahan had the statistical advantage when he chose to go for two.

here is why i say this:

Had Shanahan gone for XP and went into Overtime, the Broncos would have had at BEST at 50/50 shot at winning game.

Had the Chargers won the coin toss than the Broncos would have been even less likely to win game, so in order to get the statistical advantage the Broncos would have had to hit XP, hold Chargers AND win coin toss just to be a statistical favorite to win.

NOW, by going for two the NFL league success rate (i have seen some places say 42-45 %) but they showed the statistic as 49% in the game yesterday.

So they were basically 50/50 in a normal two point conversion, BUT Shanahan knew the Chargers didnt have a timeout to prepare for such a sudden move which he exploited so you have to figure the success rate was more like 60/40 just based on the fact that they had them off guard.

And even had they missed it there was still a 10-20% chance of recovering onside and attempting another FG.

All in all had they gone the normal rout they were 50/50 at BEST, by going for two they had the clear statistical edge

1970 said:
You sir are an idiot. If you're going to use "statistics" to justify your opinion, at least do some research. Don't just estimate.Bottom line is people are only praising Mike Shanahan because it worked. He wasn't "gutsy". He was just stupid. If it was such a good idea, why didn't he go for 2 on the previous TD as well? Heck why not all day?
Because after the previous TD, the game wasn't going to enter a sudden death format.As I said in the other thread, overtime is a game of kickers and walk-off field goals. Denver's kicker is essentially a rookie with no game experience. There's no telling how he'll perform in pressure situations, Taking that into account (as well as the fact that SD has a very solid kicker in Kaeding), it's reasonable to call the Broncos' chances of winning in overtime less than 50/50. Add in the fact that the XP isn't automatic, anyway (just ask John Carney and the New Orleans Saints, those lateraling fools).

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