biggamer3
Footballguy
As unconventional and risky as it seemed, Shanahan had the statistical advantage when he chose to go for two.
here is why i say this:
Had Shanahan gone for XP and went into Overtime, the Broncos would have had at BEST at 50/50 shot at winning game.
Had the Chargers won the coin toss than the Broncos would have been even less likely to win game, so in order to get the statistical advantage the Broncos would have had to hit XP, hold Chargers AND win coin toss just to be a statistical favorite to win.
NOW, by going for two the NFL league success rate (i have seen some places say 42-45 %) but they showed the statistic as 49% in the game yesterday.
So they were basically 50/50 in a normal two point conversion, BUT Shanahan knew the Chargers didnt have a timeout to prepare for such a sudden move which he exploited so you have to figure the success rate was more like 60/40 just based on the fact that they had them off guard.
And even had they missed it there was still a 10-20% chance of recovering onside and attempting another FG.
All in all had they gone the normal rout they were 50/50 at BEST, by going for two they had the clear statistical edge
here is why i say this:
Had Shanahan gone for XP and went into Overtime, the Broncos would have had at BEST at 50/50 shot at winning game.
Had the Chargers won the coin toss than the Broncos would have been even less likely to win game, so in order to get the statistical advantage the Broncos would have had to hit XP, hold Chargers AND win coin toss just to be a statistical favorite to win.
NOW, by going for two the NFL league success rate (i have seen some places say 42-45 %) but they showed the statistic as 49% in the game yesterday.
So they were basically 50/50 in a normal two point conversion, BUT Shanahan knew the Chargers didnt have a timeout to prepare for such a sudden move which he exploited so you have to figure the success rate was more like 60/40 just based on the fact that they had them off guard.
And even had they missed it there was still a 10-20% chance of recovering onside and attempting another FG.
All in all had they gone the normal rout they were 50/50 at BEST, by going for two they had the clear statistical edge