The RB position is essentially worthless (1 Viewer)

[imjackdupp]

Not the worst group of RBs to have but I get the point - people tend to over-value their guys and the league is in a constant state of change. Last year's champ came into this season thinking he was loaded with Bell, Demarco Murray and Jeremy Hill.

Can't say I blame him for being confident but he drafted a bunch of flyers at WR and pretty much ignored the RB position.

Came into this season in one lg with Murray, Hill, Foster, K. Davis, Spiller and McFadden. I traded Spiller & McFadden for R. Mathews before the season and thought I was golden. Right after Foster went down I traded J. Matthews for L. Miller and luckily I drafted D. Johnson and Buck Allen. If I had went after wrs early I would have been up the waiver wire without a paddle.

 

[Bayhawks]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

Jordy and Benjamin were injured before most drafts and Hilton and Allen were drafted in the 3rd round or later. So yes WRs do get injured and underperform but not at the rate of RBs...at least this year.

According to real drafts from MFL, 7 of the top 12 WRs drafted this year were busts, only 2 as a result of injury. 8 of the top 12 RBs drafted were busts, 4 of them due to injury. This ignores guys like Jordy & Benjamin, but it also ignores guys like Lewis, Candle, Gordon, etc.Someone else can compare historical ADP to injuries, it this seams like a case of RBs being easier for FF owners to replace. Dez gets hurt, DT can't find the end zone, plug in Burns, Baldwin, J Jones, R Matthews, etc. Charles gets hurt, hope you had his handcuff, or that its a small enough league that he's still available, or start Sims, Cromwell, etc.

Most of the top 32 RBs were drafted in my leagues; about 1/3 of the top 32 WR were WW pickups.

Demaryius was not a bust. He is the 11th ranked WR in PPR. That is a not a bust.

Like has been said, Jordy and Benjamin were hurt before most drafts.

Julio, A. Brown, Beckham, Demaryius, AJ Green and Hopkins were all WRs who went in the first two rounds who were number 1 WRs this season. Even Megatron, while a slight disappointment, is the 14th ranked WR, which isn't really a bust (he was a 2nd rounder this year). Someone can finish slightly behind the number they went at their position and not be a bust.

If DT & Calvin aren't busts, then neither are Forte or D Murray. They were picked as RB 7 & 8, and are currently RB 12 & 16. So if a WR can finish "slightly behind" where they are drafted & not be a bust, so can RBs.Also, if you're going to count Hopkins as a high WR pick who panned out, you need to count LMiller & Gore as high pick RBs who panned out. Miller went at pick 31, Hopkins at 32, & Gore at 35.

So, based on how you classify a bust, you eliminate DT & Calvin as WR busts, and add Hopkins as a high pick WR who didn't bust. You also have to eliminate Forte & D Murray as RB busts, & add L Miller & Gore as high pick RBs who didn't bust.

You bust classification actually tilts the scales slightly back towards even. Still slightly more RB than WR busts, but its even closer now. And that still doesn't change the fact that in deeper leagues, its easier to get viable WRs off the WW than it is to get RBs.

 

[DropKick]

Could not agree more with this thread .

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

Jordy and Benjamin were injured before most drafts and Hilton and Allen were drafted in the 3rd round or later. So yes WRs do get injured and underperform but not at the rate of RBs...at least this year.

According to real drafts from MFL, 7 of the top 12 WRs drafted this year were busts, only 2 as a result of injury. 8 of the top 12 RBs drafted were busts, 4 of them due to injury. This ignores guys like Jordy & Benjamin, but it also ignores guys like Lewis, Candle, Gordon, etc.Someone else can compare historical ADP to injuries, it this seams like a case of RBs being easier for FF owners to replace. Dez gets hurt, DT can't find the end zone, plug in Burns, Baldwin, J Jones, R Matthews, etc. Charles gets hurt, hope you had his handcuff, or that its a small enough league that he's still available, or start Sims, Cromwell, etc.

Most of the top 32 RBs were drafted in my leagues; about 1/3 of the top 32 WR were WW pickups.

Demaryius was not a bust. He is the 11th ranked WR in PPR. That is a not a bust.

Like has been said, Jordy and Benjamin were hurt before most drafts.

Julio, A. Brown, Beckham, Demaryius, AJ Green and Hopkins were all WRs who went in the first two rounds who were number 1 WRs this season. Even Megatron, while a slight disappointment, is the 14th ranked WR, which isn't really a bust (he was a 2nd rounder this year). Someone can finish slightly behind the number they went at their position and not be a bust.

If DT & Calvin aren't busts, then neither are Forte or D Murray. They were picked as RB 7 & 8, and are currently RB 12 & 16. So if a WR can finish "slightly behind" where they are drafted & not be a bust, so can RBs.Also, if you're going to count Hopkins as a high WR pick who panned out, you need to count LMiller & Gore as high pick RBs who panned out. Miller went at pick 31, Hopkins at 32, & Gore at 35.

So, based on how you classify a bust, you eliminate DT & Calvin as WR busts, and add Hopkins as a high pick WR who didn't bust. You also have to eliminate Forte & D Murray as RB busts, & add L Miller & Gore as high pick RBs who didn't bust.

You bust classification actually tilts the scales slightly back towards even. Still slightly more RB than WR busts, but its even closer now. And that still doesn't change the fact that in deeper leagues, its easier to get viable WRs off the WW than it is to get RBs.

The waiver wire is probably bare in real deep leagues. While the bolded is generally true, I think it was quite the opposite this season as injuries struck the position late (Hightower, Denard Robinson, James White, Christine Michael, etc).

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't see the big difference there at all. Why is it OK to try and help a worse team get better from one season to the next, at the expense of the better teams, but not OK to do the very same thing from week to week? Seems totally arbitrary.

If you dont see all the differences incorporated into all that right now, then you never will, and there is no point trying to explain it.

Thanks for such a snide non-answer.

I suspect if the explanation was indeed so abundantly obvious, that you would have no hesitation about sharing it with the rest of the board, and could have come up with a much more scathing critique of my intellect in the process.

FWIW, the NFL also sets their waiver priority in inverse order of the standings, so I guess I can take solace in knowing that I've got good company in not grasping this important distinction.

Comparing an entire season to a week is a horrible comparison. It really is pretty obvious, Ghostguy is right.

Do you think that it's fair or unfair to have a system that allows worse teams a better opportunity to improve than the better teams have?

In redraft completely UNFAIR.

In dynasty, that is what the draft is for.

So if I understand you correctly, you agree with the way the NFL determines its draft order, but disagree with the way it sets the waiver order throughout the regular season. Is that right?

In both cases, they give the worst team the first/best chance to improve themselves.

I dont care about the NFL waiver order. It is 100x less significant than a FF waiver wire

 

[ghostguy123]

So speaking of RB values and being worthless, in a dynasty league, question for Bell owners. What kind of deal would it take to pry him away from you?

He is easily the #1 or #2 dynasty RB heading into 2016, so what would it take?

It's so hard to get a guy like Bell, I have a hard time thinking what would get him off my team......that another owner would actually offer. I certainly would take the ridiculous, like Beckham but no one is going to offer him.

And I am loaded at RB: Bell, Miller, Freeman, Anderson. 2 of which are set to hit the FA market.

I think in the future, any time I get a RB with the type of value Bell and Gurley have, I am going to look to trade them and continue to load up on the top flight WRs, the Julios, Beckhams, Browns, Greens, and Dezs of the world. I can't help but feel 100% confident that over time this is the best way to win the most money from now until I am done with those leagues.

Obviously I am not going to sell him cheap for a guy like Maclin or some crap, but if someone comes and offers me one of those top guys, or even a really nice package deal of two good players and two high picks or something, they are G-O-N-E, every time, forever.

Sure, every great once in a while you might deal away the guy like Tomlinson who is great for like 8 years, but you are also going to consistently get some top flight guys at WR/TE and be better off for it.

Give me Julio, Brown, Gronk, and Green for the playoff run and let me pick up guys along the way. With a little luck you score a guy like Hightower, West, White, or something like that. And hell, even if you dont, those top flight WRs/TEs are so good they can win you a league with crap scoring at RB

 

[hotboyz]

Maybe the answer to this is basically combining Daily with seasonal you would still play head to head but both owners picking a lineup with the home team that week having the first pick. Then when you get to the playoffs you have a draft with all playoff participants drafting draft order based on seeding who ever scores the most point over 3 wk period is the Champ

 

[Bayhawks]

Try to get a top notch RB1 as soon as you can in your draft.

Like Charles? Or Bell? Or Forte? Or DeMarco? Or Lynch? Or Lacy? Or CJ Anderson?

What can you say?....some years you'll eat the bear....other years the bear will eat you....I don't advocate waiting until the 7th to throw #### against the wall to see if it sticks IF there's a top notch guy there.

I didn't think DeMarco and Anderson were top notch RB1s. Injuries are tough to predict...but Bell, Charles and Lynch (all top notch RB1s in my book) all had hyped backups. There was no reason their owners shouldn't have had their backups. Lacy was huge disapointment and almost burned me....if I didn't heed my own advice and get Rawls/Dion Lewis/James White/Karlos Williams and DeAngelo Williams.

I get what you are saying, but nowadays 1st and 2nd round WRs in FF are far less likely to bust than 1st and 2nd round RBs; it's been that way for several years now. I'd rather load up with two stud WRs and take my chances with RB later than doing it the other way.

Cobb, Jordy, Dez, Evans, Hilton, Allen, Calvin, D Thomas, Benjamin?Not necessary saying you're wrong, but do you have any data to back up that claim? I'm not sure if I agree that more early RBs bust, maybe its just easier to replace WRs.

Jordy and Benjamin were injured before most drafts and Hilton and Allen were drafted in the 3rd round or later. So yes WRs do get injured and underperform but not at the rate of RBs...at least this year.

According to real drafts from MFL, 7 of the top 12 WRs drafted this year were busts, only 2 as a result of injury. 8 of the top 12 RBs drafted were busts, 4 of them due to injury. This ignores guys like Jordy & Benjamin, but it also ignores guys like Lewis, Candle, Gordon, etc.Someone else can compare historical ADP to injuries, it this seams like a case of RBs being easier for FF owners to replace. Dez gets hurt, DT can't find the end zone, plug in Burns, Baldwin, J Jones, R Matthews, etc. Charles gets hurt, hope you had his handcuff, or that its a small enough league that he's still available, or start Sims, Cromwell, etc.

Most of the top 32 RBs were drafted in my leagues; about 1/3 of the top 32 WR were WW pickups.

Demaryius was not a bust. He is the 11th ranked WR in PPR. That is a not a bust.

Like has been said, Jordy and Benjamin were hurt before most drafts.

Julio, A. Brown, Beckham, Demaryius, AJ Green and Hopkins were all WRs who went in the first two rounds who were number 1 WRs this season. Even Megatron, while a slight disappointment, is the 14th ranked WR, which isn't really a bust (he was a 2nd rounder this year). Someone can finish slightly behind the number they went at their position and not be a bust.

If DT & Calvin aren't busts, then neither are Forte or D Murray. They were picked as RB 7 & 8, and are currently RB 12 & 16. So if a WR can finish "slightly behind" where they are drafted & not be a bust, so can RBs.Also, if you're going to count Hopkins as a high WR pick who panned out, you need to count LMiller & Gore as high pick RBs who panned out. Miller went at pick 31, Hopkins at 32, & Gore at 35.

So, based on how you classify a bust, you eliminate DT & Calvin as WR busts, and add Hopkins as a high pick WR who didn't bust. You also have to eliminate Forte & D Murray as RB busts, & add L Miller & Gore as high pick RBs who didn't bust.

You bust classification actually tilts the scales slightly back towards even. Still slightly more RB than WR busts, but its even closer now. And that still doesn't change the fact that in deeper leagues, its easier to get viable WRs off the WW than it is to get RBs.

The waiver wire is probably bare in real deep leagues. While the bolded is generally true, I think it was quite the opposite this season as injuries struck the position late (Hightower, Denard Robinson, James White, Christine Michael, etc).

It's not nearly as drastic as you think:

(assuming 12-team league, non-ppr, over the last 5 weeks (12-16):

week 12-3 or 4** WRs were likely WW picks (Baldwin, Wheaton, S Roberts, **J Matt.-assuming he was dropped earlier in the year).

week 13-3 WR were likely WW picks (Baldwin, Ginn, DBG)

week 14-6 WR were likely WW picks (Baldwin, Ginn, Lockett, Hurns, Colston, Wilson)

week 15-3 or 4** WR were likely WW picks (**J Matt., Ginn, Austin, Aiken)

week 16- 3 to 5**/! WR were likely WW picks (Hurns, Baldwin, **J Matt., Inman, !Garcon-assuming he was not drafted/dropped earlier in the year)

so possibly 22/60 of the WR1's over the last 5 weeks likely came from the WW. That's 37%.

week 12- possibly 6 RBs were likely WW picks (Ware, Bolden**, J Allen, Bell, Blue**, Rawls**) **all 3 of these guys were drafted or picked up before week 1 in my main league, but I'd imagine they were WW picks in many leagues.

week 13-possibly 5 RBs were likely WW picks (J Allen, Rawls**, D. Johnson** J White**, B Powell) **see comment above; White was dropped after week 1

week 14-possibly 4 RBs were likely WW picks (Crowell**, Hightower, D Robinson**, Powell) **Crowell was drafted, then dropped, D Robinson was held as a handcuff all year, but I'd imagine he was on the WW in many leagues

week 15-possibly 5 RBs were likely WW picks (D Johnson**, J Bell, Gilleslee, McKinnon, West**) **West was picked up prior to week 1 on my main league, but probably on the WW in many

week 16-possibly 7 RB were likely WW picks (Hightower, McKinnon, D Johnson**, Sims**, Allen, Gillislee, K Williams**) **Sims and Williams were drafted and held all year as handcuffs in my main league, but were likely WW picks in many leagues

So, 27/60 RB1's during the last 5 weeks were likely WW picks. That's 45%.

So slightly higher RB WW picks over the last 5 weeks (8%), but not a major difference. Like you said, this year seemed like a number of RB injuries occurred very late in the season. Despite that, WRs from the WW played almost as significant a role as WW RBs.

 

[Loipz]

I don't see the big difference there at all. Why is it OK to try and help a worse team get better from one season to the next, at the expense of the better teams, but not OK to do the very same thing from week to week? Seems totally arbitrary.

If you dont see all the differences incorporated into all that right now, then you never will, and there is no point trying to explain it.

Thanks for such a snide non-answer.

I suspect if the explanation was indeed so abundantly obvious, that you would have no hesitation about sharing it with the rest of the board, and could have come up with a much more scathing critique of my intellect in the process.

FWIW, the NFL also sets their waiver priority in inverse order of the standings, so I guess I can take solace in knowing that I've got good company in not grasping this important distinction.

Comparing an entire season to a week is a horrible comparison. It really is pretty obvious, Ghostguy is right.

Do you think that it's fair or unfair to have a system that allows worse teams a better opportunity to improve than the better teams have?

In redraft completely UNFAIR.

In dynasty, that is what the draft is for.

So if I understand you correctly, you agree with the way the NFL determines its draft order, but disagree with the way it sets the waiver order throughout the regular season. Is that right?

In both cases, they give the worst team the first/best chance to improve themselves.

The major difference is that in the NFL, waiver wire guys are just there. In fantasy we get to see guys on actual teams break out and hence are able to act on it.

You can't compare fantasy waiver order with NFL waivers because they arent similar.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Chicago Times just posted their 2016 fantasy football rankings.

They have 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 QBs, and 1 TE listed in their top 12,

I don't have much to add other than on a typical NFL play their is only 1 RB on the field but at minimum 2 WRs and the average has to be around 3.

Top fantasy talent is rare so if you eschew a top blue-chip fantasy RB and go with a second-tier WR you will be starting out conceding individual matchups at RB.

Speaking hypothetically, its more likely your opponent will be able to find a 3rd tier WR who is closer to matching the point total of your 2nd tier WR than you will in trying to match a 3rd or 4th tier RB against their 1st tier RB,

Add on average based on sheer numbers they will have a far easier time finding that 3rd tier WR because their simply are more to choose from.

------------------

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/1214671/fantasy-football-steelers-wr-antonio-brown-tops-2016-rankings

Fantasy football: Steelers WR Antonio Brown tops 2016 rankings2016 POSITION RANKINGS

Top 20 overall in parentheses


QUARTERBACKS

1. Cam Newton, Panthers (11)

2. Tom Brady, Patriots (12)

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (15)

4. Carson Palmer, Cardinals (16)

5. Andrew Luck, Colts (17)

6. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (20)

7. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

8. Drew Brees, Saints

9. Blake Bortles, Jaguars

10. Eli Manning, Giants


RUNNING BACKS

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (3)

2. Todd Gurley, Rams (4)

3. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers (7)

4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (8)

5. David Johnson, Cardinals (10)

6. Doug Martin, Buccaneers* (18)

7. Devonta Freeman, Falcons (19)

8. Mark Ingram, Saints

9. LeSean McCoy, Bills

10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs


WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Antonio Brown, Steelers (1)

2. Julio Jones, Falcons (2)

3. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants (5)

4. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (6)

5. Dez Bryant, Cowboys (13)

6. Allen Robinson, Jaguars (14)

7. Brandon Marshall, Jets

8. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

9. A.J. Green, Bengals

10. Jordy Nelson, Packers


TIGHT ENDS

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (9)

2. Greg Olsen, Panthers

3. Jordan Reed, Redskins

4. Tyler Eifert, Bengals

5. Gary Barnidge, Browns


======================

 

[lod01]

And I am loaded at RB: Bell, Miller, Freeman, Anderson. 2 of which are set to hit the FA market.

No you're not.

Injured, question mark where he'll land, question mark regarding usage, sucked.

14 team dynasty, yeah, I am.

 

[John Paul]

The pendulum will swing back eventually. I'm not predicting that is has just yet, but that upswing is slowing down. Rookies like Gurley and David Johnson are showing us what a primary carrier with talent can do. Don't over-invest in any player; chase the value. Avoiding any position is just dumb. If 2016 taught us anything, it's that injuries are your biggest threat. You eliminate that threat with depth.

Zig when others zag. Find the point advantage and take it every single time.

 

[ghostguy123]

Maybe the answer to this is basically combining Daily with seasonal you would still play head to head but both owners picking a lineup with the home team that week having the first pick. Then when you get to the playoffs you have a draft with all playoff participants drafting draft order based on seeding who ever scores the most point over 3 wk period is the Champ

Not a bad idea, and I am sure these leagues will come about at some point.

Though not sure what you do when two teams pick the same lineup...........

 

[ghostguy123]

The major difference is that in the NFL, waiver wire guys are just there. In fantasy we get to see guys on actual teams break out and hence are able to act on it.You can't compare fantasy waiver order with NFL waivers because they arent similar.

Stop saying such obvious things. It isn't fair

 

[ghostguy123]

RB value for redraft (for me) is HUGELY dependent on the type of league also.

A total points league for me would have me drafting RBs earlier than in a league with playoffs at the end of the year.

 

[beerbuff]

The number of injuries this year will certainly knock down RB values next year but in PPR after the top tier of WR's goes off the board (Antonio, OBJ, Julio, Hopkins and maybe Jordy) then there could be some great RB value to be had with the likes of Bell, Peterson, Freeman, Rawls, Langford and Lewis before the next tier of WR's goes off.

 

[Bayhawks]

I think it's fair to say that the top-tier of WRs is deeper than the top-tier of RBs.

Tier 1 WRs: A Brown, Julio, Beckham, AJ Green, Hopkins, Allen Robinson*, Alshon*, Marshall* (I'd include those last 3, but I could understand arguments for putting them in a separate 2nd tier-Jax hasn't demonstrated consistent offensive production for multiple seasons, Alshon's injury questions, and if Fitzmagic can duplicate his success from this year)

Tier 1 RBs: AP, Gurley, Bell, Freeman, Charles-ALL have question marks: AP will be 31 when the season starts; he's defied the "age 30 RB wall" thus far, but how long can it continue? Gurley and Freeman are relatively unproven, plus Gurley's offense might hinder him. Bell and Charles are both coming back from serious injuries; might they be limited in the early part of 2016?

Honestly, I don't think there is a definite stud in Tier 1; AP is the closest, IMO, but his age has to be a concern in non-redrafts. (maybe in redrafts, too). This can mean multiple things: maybe the bust rate of a top WR is lower (not sure about that), maybe with the scarcity of top RBs, getting one is even more important (again, not sure about the accuracy of that line of thinking, either).

So, with everything being even, what kind of WR for RB trade would be "fair?" Assuming keeper/dynasty league, where you start 2 RB & 2 WR:

AP for a 1st tier WR?

AP for a 1st tier WR+lower tier RB?

AP for a 2nd tier WR?

AP for a 2nd tier WR+lower tier RB?

Bell for a 1st tier WR?

Bell for a 1st tier WR+lower tier RB?

Bell for a 2nd tier WR?

Bell for a 2nd tier WR+lower tier RB?

Repeat for Gurley, Freeman, Charles.

Rather than saying "RB is worthless," I'd like to see if we can get a discussion going about the value of top RBs vs top WRs.

 

[kyoun1e]

I picked 10th in one league and I was desperate for CJ or J. Hill to fall to me. They didn't (thank god) and I backed into a Gronk/Julio one-two punch. Took Gore in the third and J. Stewart later and ended up with WRs Julio, ARob, S. Watkins, (and AJ Green via trade). Certainly happy with the result and would prefer to go WR heavy next year.

That said, draft slot will play a role and I have a feeling that the pendulum may swing too far against RBs next year to the point where there is too much value to resist.

 

[DropKick]

And I am loaded at RB: Bell, Miller, Freeman, Anderson. 2 of which are set to hit the FA market.

No you're not.

Injured, question mark where he'll land, question mark regarding usage, sucked.

14 team dynasty, yeah, I am.

I might agree with you if Bell were completely healthy. As far as the FA market, it doesn't always work out like you hope - consider Demarco Murray's drop from 1,800 to 600 yards.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think it's fair to say that the top-tier of WRs is deeper than the top-tier of RBs...

... So, with everything being even, what kind of WR for RB trade would be "fair?" Assuming keeper/dynasty league, where you start 2 RB & 2 WR:

AP for a 1st tier WR?

AP for a 1st tier WR+lower tier RB?

AP for a 2nd tier WR?

AP for a 2nd tier WR+lower tier RB?

Bell for a 1st tier WR?

Bell for a 1st tier WR+lower tier RB?

Bell for a 2nd tier WR?

Bell for a 2nd tier WR+lower tier RB?

Repeat for Gurley, Freeman, Charles.

Rather than saying "RB is worthless," I'd like to see if we can get a discussion going about the value of top RBs vs top WRs.

The decision boils down to which is easier/harder to replace?

In a typical draft are their are fewer top-stud RBs who stay healthy and are consistent point producers or more WRs like that?

If its that easy then problem solved but the topic assumes top RBs get injured or under perform so why draft them high?

Its more complicated so the problem isn't being framed correctly because their are exceptions and if we look at it over time we'd see patterns and its reasonable to assume we'd see trends over time.

For example this year I don't think anyone would argue that it would be impossible for LeVeon Bell or Jamaal Charles or whoever to come back healthy and DOMINATE in 2016. I'm sure no one would argue it would be impossible for a RB who is projected to have a great year actually does and that it would be impossible for anyone who bypassed RBs in the first round winds up scrambling all year long.

So its not only who is easier/harder to replace in the draft but also what happens if their isn't another RB apocalypse and those top RBs pay off next year.

Also it isn't only about who is easier/harder to replace in the draft its also who is easier/harder to find replacements out on the waiver wire. RB is heavily dependent on opportunity so if the starter goes down the next guy up has a GREAT shot to produce numbers equal or near to top RBs but that all is tied to top RBs going down in another RB apocalypse to open up opportunities.

On the surface its a good argument to not use a top pick and wait in the weeds on RBs because top RBs will go down and someone will emerge on the wire or from a handcuff situation but while those clever owners are sitting and waiting the other owners hold the advantage at RB and the trend might swing back to top RBs staying healthy for the next year or two.

It gets even more complicated if you factor in other things like, how common/rare it is for rookies who are later picks at RB/WR to produce. How your wire works and if an owner who is stable at RB and isn't burning his waiver wire spot early scrambling to find a starting RB but is in fact SAVING it for later in the year when he knows a RB will emerge and who has properly handcuffed some top RBs etc. Basically its not a simple case of don't take RBs high because the issue of RBs getting injured isn't a secret. You just have to know it and adjust accordingly but its easier to start the year with at least one or two top RBs and draft startable WRs later IMHO.

 

[Milkman]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs.

/TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

 

[Milkman]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

 

[Milkman]

It's been a winning strategy for a while now to draft WR early and wait to grab that Forsett type RB off the WW.

 

[Bayhawks]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

That says a lot about that league, then; why would Brady have gone in the 1st 2 rounds? He was going off the board at pick 64 in real MFL drafts after 8/25.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted AP in the 1st, Hilton in the 2nd, L Miller in the 3rd, Edelman in the 4th.

Oh, and he grabbed Baldwin off the WW.

So, /Thread-my "guy in one league" story trumps yours.

 

[Bayhawks]

It's been a winning strategy for a while now to draft WR early and wait to grab that Forsett type RB off the WW.

It's been a winning strategy for a while to draft stud RBs early, as well.

Just because something worked in the past doesn't predict the future.

 

[Milkman]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

That says a lot about that league, then; why would Brady have gone in the 1st 2 rounds? He was going off the board at pick 64 in real MFL drafts after 8/25.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted AP in the 1st, Hilton in the 2nd, L Miller in the 3rd, Edelman in the 4th.

Oh, and he grabbed Baldwin off the WW.

So, /Thread-my "guy in one league" story trumps yours.

This is the point your missing. To win your league you only have to sneak into the playoffs and be the best team the last 3 games. It's a lot easier to do that needing a hot RB off the WW.

Tim Hightower is a great example. Totally free off the WW and i bet he won a ton if teams championships.

 

[Milkman]

It's been a winning strategy for a while now to draft WR early and wait to grab that Forsett type RB off the WW.

It's been a winning strategy for a while to draft stud RBs early, as well.Just because something worked in the past doesn't predict the future.

I think it's a trend. I've been doing it for 3-4 years now and crushing PPR redrafts. Small sample I know but lots of undervalued 3rd down RB. Not to mention a ton of back up RB that if they hit return 1st/2nd round value. You only have to hit one of them if you got studs at WR and TE.

 

[Bayhawks]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

That says a lot about that league, then; why would Brady have gone in the 1st 2 rounds? He was going off the board at pick 64 in real MFL drafts after 8/25.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted AP in the 1st, Hilton in the 2nd, L Miller in the 3rd, Edelman in the 4th.

Oh, and he grabbed Baldwin off the WW.

So, /Thread-my "guy in one league" story trumps yours.

This is the point your missing. To win your league you only have to sneak into the playoffs and be the best team the last 3 games. It's a lot easier to do that needing a hot RB off the WW.

Tim Hightower is a great example. Totally free off the WW and i bet he won a ton if teams championships.

I'm not missing the point, you are.

Hightower didn't help any sneak into the playoffs, and he didn't help anyone have the best team for 3 games. Hightower had 1 average week, 1 dud week, then 1 stud week in week 16. Anyone who picked him up had to have other players

You can make a better example with a WR. Baldwin not only was totally free off the WR, but he also helped teams GET to the championship, AND win it.

You can also find many more historical examples of WW WRs paying dividends in FF playoffs than WW RBs.

 

[Bayhawks]

It's been a winning strategy for a while now to draft WR early and wait to grab that Forsett type RB off the WW.

It's been a winning strategy for a while to draft stud RBs early, as well.Just because something worked in the past doesn't predict the future.

I think it's a trend. I've been doing it for 3-4 years now and crushing PPR redrafts. Small sample I know but lots of undervalued 3rd down RB. Not to mention a ton of back up RB that if they hit return 1st/2nd round value. You only have to hit one of them if you got studs at WR and TE.

You can think it's a trend, that doesn't mean it IS a trend.

You also think Tim Hightower, a WW RB who had 1 big game is a better example of an impact WW player than Doug Baldwin, who was the #2 WR over the last 1/2 of the season. Your thought process seems to be influenced by your pre-conceived bias.

 

[Milkman]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

That says a lot about that league, then; why would Brady have gone in the 1st 2 rounds? He was going off the board at pick 64 in real MFL drafts after 8/25.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted AP in the 1st, Hilton in the 2nd, L Miller in the 3rd, Edelman in the 4th.

Oh, and he grabbed Baldwin off the WW.

So, /Thread-my "guy in one league" story trumps yours.

This is the point your missing. To win your league you only have to sneak into the playoffs and be the best team the last 3 games. It's a lot easier to do that needing a hot RB off the WW.

Tim Hightower is a great example. Totally free off the WW and i bet he won a ton if teams championships.

I'm not missing the point, you are.Hightower didn't help any sneak into the playoffs, and he didn't help anyone have the best team for 3 games. Hightower had 1 average week, 1 dud week, then 1 stud week in week 16. Anyone who picked him up had to have other players

You can make a better example with a WR. Baldwin not only was totally free off the WR, but he also helped teams GET to the championship, AND win it.

You can also find many more historical examples of WW WRs paying dividends in FF playoffs than WW RBs.

Enjoy losing than bro. Lol

I'll take a safer approach and grab a ton if lottery RB late.

 

[Bayhawks]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

That says a lot about that league, then; why would Brady have gone in the 1st 2 rounds? He was going off the board at pick 64 in real MFL drafts after 8/25.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted AP in the 1st, Hilton in the 2nd, L Miller in the 3rd, Edelman in the 4th.

Oh, and he grabbed Baldwin off the WW.

So, /Thread-my "guy in one league" story trumps yours.

This is the point your missing. To win your league you only have to sneak into the playoffs and be the best team the last 3 games. It's a lot easier to do that needing a hot RB off the WW.

Tim Hightower is a great example. Totally free off the WW and i bet he won a ton if teams championships.

I'm not missing the point, you are.Hightower didn't help any sneak into the playoffs, and he didn't help anyone have the best team for 3 games. Hightower had 1 average week, 1 dud week, then 1 stud week in week 16. Anyone who picked him up had to have other players

You can make a better example with a WR. Baldwin not only was totally free off the WR, but he also helped teams GET to the championship, AND win it.

You can also find many more historical examples of WW WRs paying dividends in FF playoffs than WW RBs.

Enjoy losing than bro. Lol

I'll take a safer approach and grab a ton if lottery RB late.

Enjoy your losing strategy, too "bro."

 

[Milkman]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

That says a lot about that league, then; why would Brady have gone in the 1st 2 rounds? He was going off the board at pick 64 in real MFL drafts after 8/25.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted AP in the 1st, Hilton in the 2nd, L Miller in the 3rd, Edelman in the 4th.

Oh, and he grabbed Baldwin off the WW.

So, /Thread-my "guy in one league" story trumps yours.

This is the point your missing. To win your league you only have to sneak into the playoffs and be the best team the last 3 games. It's a lot easier to do that needing a hot RB off the WW.

Tim Hightower is a great example. Totally free off the WW and i bet he won a ton if teams championships.

I'm not missing the point, you are.Hightower didn't help any sneak into the playoffs, and he didn't help anyone have the best team for 3 games. Hightower had 1 average week, 1 dud week, then 1 stud week in week 16. Anyone who picked him up had to have other players

You can make a better example with a WR. Baldwin not only was totally free off the WR, but he also helped teams GET to the championship, AND win it.

You can also find many more historical examples of WW WRs paying dividends in FF playoffs than WW RBs.

Enjoy losing than bro. Lol

I'll take a safer approach and grab a ton if lottery RB late.

Enjoy your losing strategy, too "bro."

Haha yeah I'm getting smashed.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Everything is league dependent.

We play non-PPR dynasty with IDPs with deeeep benches so its a complex league that is forward thinking. We have an annual rookie/vet free agent draft. Smart owners in our league should be forward thinking enough at draft time to factor in shelf life of top RBs being shorter than top WRs and have figured out how to mesh two different long-term timelines with seasonal short-term timelines where it should be common knowledge that RBs get injured and that teams will need to restock at least one of their starting RBs from the wire.

So for a simple re-draft league that isn't forward thinking and doesn't use IDPs it might be a way to gain an advantage but their still could be longer term fluctuations or patterns. This year could and probably was an anomaly with so many top backs going down creating more opportunities for backups and to find starters on the wire.

 

[Milkman]

I bet you couldn't trade Bell for any top 10 WR of similar age in a PPR dynasty league. I own David Johnson too and I bet I couldn't get Allen Robinson for him straight up even if he continues his insane production the rest of the year and was drafted top 5 next year in redrafts.

WR>RB

 

[beef]

I bet you couldn't trade Bell for any top 10 WR of similar age in a PPR dynasty league. I own David Johnson too and I bet I couldn't get Allen Robinson for him straight up even if he continues his insane production the rest of the year and was drafted top 5 next year in redrafts.

WR>RB

you're probably right. but if trading bell or johnson meant a team would be super weak at RB they may not be in any hurry to trade them off for a top ranked dynasty wr right now either. there are leagues i'd rather have robinson and others i'd rather have johnson or bell.

 

[Chaka]

Two words..........Tim Hightower.

/Thread.

If anyone bypassed top RBs and waited all year on Tim Hightower they didn't land up making the playoffs./TimHightower talk of ending this thread.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted Gronk and Brady in the first two rounds.

Oh and he waited all year grabbing Tim Hightower late.

Like I said

/Thread.

That says a lot about that league, then; why would Brady have gone in the 1st 2 rounds? He was going off the board at pick 64 in real MFL drafts after 8/25.

A guy that won one of my leagues drafted AP in the 1st, Hilton in the 2nd, L Miller in the 3rd, Edelman in the 4th.

Oh, and he grabbed Baldwin off the WW.

So, /Thread-my "guy in one league" story trumps yours.

Things like Brady going at #64 are the reason I continually hammer the insanity of start 1 QB leagues.

Effectively what I am reading in this thread is that 1) many people think going RB early is not going to be a good strategy going forward and 2) most people have league configurations that mandate going with a QB early is a bad strategy. That makes for some very boring drafts and seasons.

 

[Bayhawks]

I bet you couldn't trade Bell for any top 10 WR of similar age in a PPR dynasty league. I own David Johnson too and I bet I couldn't get Allen Robinson for him straight up even if he continues his insane production the rest of the year and was drafted top 5 next year in redrafts.

WR>RB

This is the kind of productive conversation I'd like to read/have.

I apologize for my earlier "toolish" post(s). No excuses; it wasn't necessary or helpful.

This is the kind of information it is important to have; knowing how other owners think can give us an edge when making draft/auction plans and/or trade/WW decisions.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Regarding the RB vs WR debate, a point was made along the way that you can get cheap WRs late or off the waiver wire early on, which is why I think it is best nowadays to get two stud WRs early if you can and then you don't have to worry about WR for a while, unless value is to be had, and of course depending on the size of the league. I'd rather take two stud WRs in the first two rounds and then two RBs in rounds 3-5, than two RBs in the first two rounds and then two WRs in rounds 3-5. Again, so much of this is dependent on what kind of lineup you start and whatnot, but the last few years, I have gone stud WR-heavy in nearly every pay league I have done and have had very good success, and I think the only leagues where I did well with a first or second RB in the last few years was last year when I had DeMarco on several teams.

I think the problem, too, is RBs seemingly get vaulted into 1st round status too quickly. See: CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill this year, Montee Ball last year. Take a guy like J. Hill. I had him on several teams last year, and he was a major steal, given his value, last year, but as a 1st rounder this year, for a guy who was too TD-dependent and doesn't catch a lot of balls, too many things had to swing just right for him to justify him being a 1st rounder, so he was on my avoid list. Contrarily, when you look at first round WRs this season like Brown, Julio, Beckham, Dez, Demaryius and AJ Green, you know that as long as those guys are on the field and not hurt, they will produce big numbers (and they all did, except Dez, who got hurt, and Demaryius, who was still very good this year, but his lack of scores made him more of a high end WR2 than a real WR1).

 

[Bayhawks]

Regarding the RB vs WR debate, a point was made along the way that you can get cheap WRs late or off the waiver wire early on, which is why I think it is best nowadays to get two stud WRs early if you can and then you don't have to worry about WR for a while, unless value is to be had, and of course depending on the size of the league. I'd rather take two stud WRs in the first two rounds and then two RBs in rounds 3-5, than two RBs in the first two rounds and then two WRs in rounds 3-5. Again, so much of this is dependent on what kind of lineup you start and whatnot, but the last few years, I have gone stud WR-heavy in nearly every pay league I have done and have had very good success, and I think the only leagues where I did well with a first or second RB in the last few years was last year when I had DeMarco on several teams.

I think the problem, too, is RBs seemingly get vaulted into 1st round status too quickly. See: CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill this year, Montee Ball last year. Take a guy like J. Hill. I had him on several teams last year, and he was a major steal, given his value, last year, but as a 1st rounder this year, for a guy who was too TD-dependent and doesn't catch a lot of balls, too many things had to swing just right for him to justify him being a 1st rounder, so he was on my avoid list. Contrarily, when you look at first round WRs this season like Brown, Julio, Beckham, Dez, Demaryius and AJ Green, you know that as long as those guys are on the field and not hurt, they will produce big numbers (and they all did, except Dez, who got hurt, and Demaryius, who was still very good this year, but his lack of scores made him more of a high end WR2 than a real WR1).

See, I have to disagree with this point:

Brown sucked when Ben was hurt; he had 3 straight games with under 5 points with Vick at QB. DT being a WR2 versus a WR1 is a major distinction. Without Peyton playing at his old, high level, he's not the dominant force he was expected to be. He finished WR15 (non-ppr), sandwiched by Jarvis Landry and Maclin, who I'm sure could have been drafted with a much later pick. Look at Fitzgerald last year without Palmer vs his stats this year, with Palmer. In the 2 games Dalton missed (admittedly a tiny sample size) AJ Green hasn't been very productive.

I don't think you can say "just take a top WR early, you don't have anything to worry about," they are going to be very impacted by a QB injury, moreso than a RB would.

I think your comment about DeMarco was important, as well.

Being able to hit on the early pick is the key, IMO. It doesn't matter if you hit on an early RB, WR, QB, if you hit you're ahead of the game. If you don't, you aren't. Whether RBs, WRs, or QBs are more likely to get injured is the key, I think. If you believe RBs are more likely to get hurt, then you try to "hit" on an early round WR or QB. If you don't subscribe to that theory, you go with whichever player (regardless of position) that you think is most likely to hit.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Demaryius is the 11th ranked WR in PPR (which I think we have been over before).

AJ Green basically played three games without Dalton (since he was hurt early in the Pitt game) and had:

6-132-1 (most of which came, I believe, after Dalton got hurt)

1-37-0

5-57-1

That is one great game, one very good game and one bad game (where they got up big and didn't have to throw a lot).

I would not say that is being not productive.

Sure, WRs are dependent on their QBs staying healthy, but this year was an anomaly for QBs drafted to be above average getting hurt (Romo, Ben, Peyton, Dalton, Luck). 1st and 2nd round RBs underperforming by a lot is not something that just started happening this year; it's been a trend for several years now. It can always turn around, sure, but the point still remains that a 1st or 2nd round RB the last few years has been more likely to greatly disappoint/bust than a 1st or 2nd round WR.

 

[Milkman]

Not to mention RB are also adversely affected when they lose a good QB.

 

[ghostguy123]

You dont need good RB production to make the playoffs though. Not when you are strong at wr, te, and pick a QB who plays to hi draft slot.

Decent RB pickups start as early as week 1. Even if they didnt, you can still make the playoffs in quite a few cases with poor scores at RB most weeks

 

[Bayhawks]

Demaryius is the 11th ranked WR in PPR (which I think we have been over before).

AJ Green basically played three games without Dalton (since he was hurt early in the Pitt game) and had:

6-132-1 (most of which came, I believe, after Dalton got hurt)

1-37-0

5-57-1

That is one great game, one very good game and one bad game (where they got up big and didn't have to throw a lot).

I would not say that is being not productive.

Sure, WRs are dependent on their QBs staying healthy, but this year was an anomaly for QBs drafted to be above average getting hurt (Romo, Ben, Peyton, Dalton, Luck). 1st and 2nd round RBs underperforming by a lot is not something that just started happening this year; it's been a trend for several years now. It can always turn around, sure, but the point still remains that a 1st or 2nd round RB the last few years has been more likely to greatly disappoint/bust than a 1st or 2nd round WR.

1-I specifically said DT's 15 ranking was in non-PPR. That being said, he wasn't drafted as the 11th WR, so he still underperformed, and that can be directly tied to having inferior QB play than he has had the last few years.

2-You're right, Dalton's injury was fairly early, so Green's performance looked better. You have to wonder, however, how much the next two D's being able to prepare for a different QB impacted that. It's not uncommon for a back up to do well when the other team gameplanned for a different QB.

3-So, QBs getting hurt is an aberration, but RBs getting hurt is the new norm? You say this is a trend with RBs....how so? Other than Arian Foster in each of the last few years, what massive RB injury uptick have you seen? Serious question, as I just made a cursory glance at the last few years stats, and I don't see any noticeable RBs missing significant time.

 

[shadyridr]

Rb is so volatile you just need healthy bodies at the end of the year. But the other positions you need studs, just having healthy bodies will not suffice

 

[Ghost Rider]

Demaryius is the 11th ranked WR in PPR (which I think we have been over before).

AJ Green basically played three games without Dalton (since he was hurt early in the Pitt game) and had:

6-132-1 (most of which came, I believe, after Dalton got hurt)

1-37-0

5-57-1

That is one great game, one very good game and one bad game (where they got up big and didn't have to throw a lot).

I would not say that is being not productive.

Sure, WRs are dependent on their QBs staying healthy, but this year was an anomaly for QBs drafted to be above average getting hurt (Romo, Ben, Peyton, Dalton, Luck). 1st and 2nd round RBs underperforming by a lot is not something that just started happening this year; it's been a trend for several years now. It can always turn around, sure, but the point still remains that a 1st or 2nd round RB the last few years has been more likely to greatly disappoint/bust than a 1st or 2nd round WR.

1-I specifically said DT's 15 ranking was in non-PPR. That being said, he wasn't drafted as the 11th WR, so he still underperformed, and that can be directly tied to having inferior QB play than he has had the last few years.

2-You're right, Dalton's injury was fairly early, so Green's performance looked better. You have to wonder, however, how much the next two D's being able to prepare for a different QB impacted that. It's not uncommon for a back up to do well when the other team gameplanned for a different QB.

3-So, QBs getting hurt is an aberration, but RBs getting hurt is the new norm? You say this is a trend with RBs....how so? Other than Arian Foster in each of the last few years, what massive RB injury uptick have you seen? Serious question, as I just made a cursory glance at the last few years stats, and I don't see any noticeable RBs missing significant time.

1. If underperforming your draft position at all, re: Demaryius, makes you a bust or disappointment, I guess AP was one in any league where he went 1st? I mean, he was only the 2nd best RB in PPR, which is underperforming the spot where he went, right?

2. Not much, I assume. Green still had 5-57-1 against arguably the best D in the league, a week after having only one catch in a game where they only threw it 21 times because they were up by 21 in the 2nd Q.

3. I didn't say RBs getting hurt was the new norm. Don't put words in my mouth. I said first and second round RBs busting (or disappointing greatly) is. To wit:

2015: Bell, Charles, Anderson, Lynch, Lacy, DeMarco, Forsett, J. Hill

2014: AP, McCoy, Ball, Bernard, Martin

2013: Martin, Spiller, T-Rich, Rice, Foster, Ridley, SJax, David Wilson, Reggie Bush

 

[Bayhawks]

Demaryius is the 11th ranked WR in PPR (which I think we have been over before).

AJ Green basically played three games without Dalton (since he was hurt early in the Pitt game) and had:

6-132-1 (most of which came, I believe, after Dalton got hurt)

1-37-0

5-57-1

That is one great game, one very good game and one bad game (where they got up big and didn't have to throw a lot).

I would not say that is being not productive.

Sure, WRs are dependent on their QBs staying healthy, but this year was an anomaly for QBs drafted to be above average getting hurt (Romo, Ben, Peyton, Dalton, Luck). 1st and 2nd round RBs underperforming by a lot is not something that just started happening this year; it's been a trend for several years now. It can always turn around, sure, but the point still remains that a 1st or 2nd round RB the last few years has been more likely to greatly disappoint/bust than a 1st or 2nd round WR.
1-I specifically said DT's 15 ranking was in non-PPR. That being said, he wasn't drafted as the 11th WR, so he still underperformed, and that can be directly tied to having inferior QB play than he has had the last few years.

2-You're right, Dalton's injury was fairly early, so Green's performance looked better. You have to wonder, however, how much the next two D's being able to prepare for a different QB impacted that. It's not uncommon for a back up to do well when the other team gameplanned for a different QB.

3-So, QBs getting hurt is an aberration, but RBs getting hurt is the new norm? You say this is a trend with RBs....how so? Other than Arian Foster in each of the last few years, what massive RB injury uptick have you seen? Serious question, as I just made a cursory glance at the last few years stats, and I don't see any noticeable RBs missing significant time.

1. If underperforming your draft position at all, re: Demaryius, makes you a bust or disappointment, I guess AP was one in any league where he went 1st? I mean, he was only the 2nd best RB in PPR, which is underperforming the spot where he went, right?

2. Not much, I assume. Green still had 5-57-1 against arguably the best D in the league, a week after having only one catch in a game where they only threw it 21 times because they were up by 21 in the 2nd Q.

3. I didn't say RBs getting hurt was the new norm. Don't put words in my mouth. I said first and second round RBs busting (or disappointing greatly) is. To wit:

2015: Bell, Charles, Anderson, Lynch, Lacy, DeMarco, Forsett, J. Hill

2014: AP, McCoy, Ball, Bernard, Martin

2013: Martin, Spiller, T-Rich, Rice, Foster, Ridley, SJax, David Wilson, Reggie Bush

You're right, you didn't say RBs getting hurt was the new norm, I mis-read that, my apologies.

1-Since you asked that I don't "Don't put words in my mouth," would you mind returning the favor? I never said a player underperforming "at all" makes you a bust or disappointment. There's a hell of a lot of difference between being the 1st RB picked, and finishing as the 2nd RB then there is is being the 3rd WR picked and finishing as the 15th WR (AGAIN, I'm talking non-PPR). DT was a bust/disappointment (whichever term you prefer); finishing as WR 15 when you were the 3rd WR picked is disappointing.

2-You can assume that, and you can very well be right. I admitted that I didn't factor Dalton's early injury (in the Pitt) game into my earlier post.

3-This section is long; I provided the names to avoid ambiguity; if you prefer to skip it, look to the red font at the end.

Using real draft info for 12-team leagues conducted after 8/25/15 from MFL.com:

2015 1st/2nd round WRs that busted-Dez, Hilton, DT, Calvin, Cobb (9 selected in the 1st 24 picks: 5/9=56% bust rate)

RBs-your data: 7 bust RBs (you cited Forsett, but he wasn't a top-24 pick); 10 selected in first 24 picks, 7/10=

70% bust rate

QBs-Luck and Rodgers selected in top-24, both bust=100% bust rate**

2014 1st/2nd round WRs that busted-Calvin, Marshall, Green (7 selected in 1st 24 picks: 3/7=43% bust rate)

RBs-your data: 5 bust RBs (you cited Martin, who was pick 25, not 24, but I counted him); counting Martin, 10

selected in first 24 picks, 5/10=50% bust rate

QBs-Manning, Rodgers, Brees selected in top-24 picks, 0 busts=0% bust rate**

2013 1st/2nd round WRs that busted/disappointed-Julio (only 4 selected in 1st 24 picks: 1/4=25% bust rate)

RBs-your data 7 bust RBs (you cited Ridley and Wilson, but neither were top-24 picks); 14 selected in first 24

picks, 7/14=50% bust rate

QBs-Only Brees and Rodgers ADP was in first 24, Rodgers busted, Brees didn't=50% bust rate**

**The criteria of top-24 picks really restricted the QBs with ADP that high, so using the QBs with top-12 ADP:

2015-6/12 of the ADP top-12 were busts=50%

2014-4/12 of the ADP top-12 were busts=33%

2013-3/12 of the ADP top-12 were busts=25%

So based on REAL draft ADP:

bust/disappointment rate at RB has gone from 50% in 2013 to 50% in 2014 to 70% this year.

bust/disappointment rate at WR has gone from 25% in 2013 to 43% in 2014 to 56% this year.

bust disappointment rate at QB(top-12 ADP) has gone from 25% in 2013 to 33% in 2014 to 50% this year.

So, yeah, there are more busts/disappointments from top RB picks, but there are a significant amount at WR & TE, too. The bust rate has been increasing for all 3 positions over the last 3 years as well.

Take what you will from this data, but I'm not sure it supports your premise that QBs get underperforming this year was an anomaly.

Edited for formatting purposes.

 

[Eminence]

Go with the flow, bro. You roster whoever is getting carries. Everyone gets hurt. Name me one year where a starting Running Back doesn't get hurt.


Don't get sour. Play the game, sometimes you get burned. But I'm sure you had a chances as Waiver Wire #1 to grab a gem.

 

[kupcho1]

Here's one league I am in, interestingly enough, its also my biggest $$$ league.

The eventual league winner started TIM HIGHTOWER and CAMERON ARTIS-PAYNE vs. (the loser's) DOUG MARTIN and KARLOS WILLIAMS.

Good thing you guys avoided all of the nonsense that goes along with a week 17 championship

 

[kyoun1e]

I think it's rather funny that the zero RB crowd seems to just assume they will "hit" on these waiver wire RBs.

While there are many leagues where the eventual winner rosters a Tim Hightower or CAP, there are also many others who fire and miss on these RBs. Worse, if you drafted and strategized well early on, you most likely got out to a 5-0 or 6-1 record and your waiver priority was never high enough to even have a shot at these RBs.

It aint so easy. You need to get lucky.

 

[Milkman]

I think it's rather funny that the zero RB crowd seems to just assume they will "hit" on these waiver wire RBs.

While there are many leagues where the eventual winner rosters a Tim Hightower or CAP, there are also many others who fire and miss on these RBs. Worse, if you drafted and strategized well early on, you most likely got out to a 5-0 or 6-1 record and your waiver priority was never high enough to even have a shot at these RBs.

It aint so easy. You need to get lucky.

Waivers are run differently in every league. So they don't all work like yours does. The goal shouldn't be to be 6-1 going into week 8. Your goal should be to head into the playoffs as the hottest team and smash dreams. There's a number of ways to do that but they all include killing the WW. I find it easier to kill the WW targeting RB than any other position. If you find it easier to target TE, QB, or WR that's fine too but those are more difficult for me to identify.