The RB position is essentially worthless (1 Viewer)

[Don Quixote]

I think it's rather funny that the zero RB crowd seems to just assume they will "hit" on these waiver wire RBs.

While there are many leagues where the eventual winner rosters a Tim Hightower or CAP, there are also many others who fire and miss on these RBs. Worse, if you drafted and strategized well early on, you most likely got out to a 5-0 or 6-1 record and your waiver priority was never high enough to even have a shot at these RBs.

It aint so easy. You need to get lucky.

Most leagues have FAAB instead of worst to first waivers. Hightower was probably available as a free pick up in most leagues because the Ingram news came out after the first waiver run of the week (I picked him that way in all of my leagues).

 

[Deamon]

Who is the top RB taken next year? Gurley? AP? Miller?

Wondering if any of these guys even go top 5 in most PPR leagues? Maybe Gurley, but I see Brown, ODB, Julio pretty much being the unquestioned top 3 going off PPR boards. That will be so odd.

 

[ghostguy123]

Who is the top RB taken next year? Gurley? AP? Miller?

Wondering if any of these guys even go top 5 in most PPR leagues? Maybe Gurley, but I see Brown, ODB, Julio pretty much being the unquestioned top 3 going off PPR boards. That will be so odd.

Lot of factors. League size? Rosters? Scoring system? Lineup requirements?......................

In a 12 team PPR league with somewhat smaller rosters where you only have a few bench players, I wouldnt touch a RB early even in a start 2 RB league.

 

[Deamon]

Who is the top RB taken next year? Gurley? AP? Miller?

Wondering if any of these guys even go top 5 in most PPR leagues? Maybe Gurley, but I see Brown, ODB, Julio pretty much being the unquestioned top 3 going off PPR boards. That will be so odd.

Lot of factors. League size? Rosters? Scoring system? Lineup requirements?......................

In a 12 team PPR league with somewhat smaller rosters where you only have a few bench players, I wouldnt touch a RB early even in a start 2 RB league.

Ya I'm talking the fairly standard 12 teamer, regular ppr, 15-16 round, qb rb rb wr wr te flex d k b b b b b b type league. WRs have been creeping more and more into the top 10 the last few years, but we could see 5 receivers go top 5. We're going to see drafts go a lot differently next year.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I think it's rather funny that the zero RB crowd seems to just assume they will "hit" on these waiver wire RBs.

While there are many leagues where the eventual winner rosters a Tim Hightower or CAP, there are also many others who fire and miss on these RBs. Worse, if you drafted and strategized well early on, you most likely got out to a 5-0 or 6-1 record and your waiver priority was never high enough to even have a shot at these RBs.

It aint so easy. You need to get lucky.

Waivers are run differently in every league. So they don't all work like yours does. The goal shouldn't be to be 6-1 going into week 8. Your goal should be to head into the playoffs as the hottest team and smash dreams. There's a number of ways to do that but they all include killing the WW. I find it easier to kill the WW targeting RB than any other position. If you find it easier to target TE, QB, or WR that's fine too but those are more difficult for me to identify.

I disagree. The goal is to make the playoffs, because then anything can happen. You can have the hottest team and get smashed in the first round. Or you can have a marginal team and win the title. Once you get there, it's kind of a crapshoot. So I'll take the 6-1 team every time, and figure it out when I get there, rather than be 2-5 and struggle for a spot with a "hot" team.

The goal is to get there and put yourself in position to win a couple of games in a row. The question is, are you most likely to do that by depending on waiver RBs? Honestly, after this year, I'm not sure. But I still think RBs mean a lot. This was just a year when the backup was often an every-down workhorse, even if the team was losing. Often it's a committee of mediocrity.

 

[ghostguy123]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think it's rather funny that the zero RB crowd seems to just assume they will "hit" on these waiver wire RBs.

While there are many leagues where the eventual winner rosters a Tim Hightower or CAP, there are also many others who fire and miss on these RBs. Worse, if you drafted and strategized well early on, you most likely got out to a 5-0 or 6-1 record and your waiver priority was never high enough to even have a shot at these RBs.

It aint so easy. You need to get lucky.

Waivers are run differently in every league. So they don't all work like yours does. The goal shouldn't be to be 6-1 going into week 8. Your goal should be to head into the playoffs as the hottest team and smash dreams. There's a number of ways to do that but they all include killing the WW. I find it easier to kill the WW targeting RB than any other position. If you find it easier to target TE, QB, or WR that's fine too but those are more difficult for me to identify.

I disagree. The goal is to make the playoffs, because then anything can happen. You can have the hottest team and get smashed in the first round. Or you can have a marginal team and win the title. Once you get there, it's kind of a crapshoot. So I'll take the 6-1 team every time, and figure it out when I get there, rather than be 2-5 and struggle for a spot with a "hot" team.

The goal is to get there and put yourself in position to win a couple of games in a row. The question is, are you most likely to do that by depending on waiver RBs? Honestly, after this year, I'm not sure. But I still think RBs mean a lot. This was just a year when the backup was often an every-down workhorse, even if the team was losing. Often it's a committee of mediocrity.

I would say the goal is to have the best team.

If you got RB early you have a much higher chance of drafting a bust early, meaning your playoff chances would go down obviously.

If you dont get any RBs early, you will have a far greater chance of being stronger at the other positions, and a far greater chance at being worse at RB. However, the chances you can patchwork some RBs together at the end of the year sort of mirrors (IMO) the chances of drafting a RB bust.

I will go with the option that makes my team better at the end of the year, which seems to be waiting on RBs

 

[Arodin]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

 

[comfortably numb]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

This is fair.

PPR has made WR/TE so much more valuable over RB who might even get the .5PPR

AP won the rushing title and in my league he (any RB isn't even in the top 30)

This is why I had no issue moving Gurley in a deal for ABrown

 

[hotboyz]

Maybe the answer to this is basically combining Daily with seasonal you would still play head to head but both owners picking a lineup with the home team that week having the first pick. Then when you get to the playoffs you have a draft with all playoff participants drafting draft order based on seeding who ever scores the most point over 3 wk period is the Champ

Not a bad idea, and I am sure these leagues will come about at some point.

Though not sure what you do when two teams pick the same lineup...........

You don't allow the 2 teams to pick the same players

 

[Deamon]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

Really don't think Robinson, Green, DT go before Gurley. But never know.

 

[ImTheScientist]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

IRL RBs have been devalued as well. Not a lot of good ones and seen as expendable for the most part.

 

[davearm]

It's been a winning strategy for a while now to draft WR early and wait to grab that Forsett type RB off the WW.

It's been a winning strategy for a while to draft stud RBs early, as well.

Just because something worked in the past doesn't predict the future.

In with the obligatory, "any strategy works if you pick the right guys".

 

[zamboni]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

This is fair.

PPR has made WR/TE so much more valuable over RB who might even get the .5PPR

That said, the PPR system is what makes workhorse, big time pass catching RBs such as Freeman and Bell (when healthy) perhaps the most valuable position of all. David Johnson may be another one next year.

 

[Biabreakable]

In 2015 only one RB had 300 or more rushing attempts, Adrian Peterson. Only 15 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2014 two RB had 300 or more rushing attempts, Murray and McCoy. 17 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2013 two RB had 300 or more rushing attempts, McCoy and Lynch. 22 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2012 five RB had 300 or more rushing attempts. Foster, Peterson, Morris, Martin, Lynch. 24 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2011 two RB had 300 or more rushing attempts. MJD and Michael Turner. 20 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

2015 32977 total plays 13490 rushing attempts

2014 32779 total plays 13688 rushing attempts

2013 33302 total plays 13871 rushing attempts

2012 32882 total plays 13925 rushing attempts

2011 32569 total plays 13871 rushing attempts

The last time the league had 14000 or more rushing attempts was 2009 The further you go back the more this change becomes obvious.

Rushing attempts overall are down and the trend seems to be leading to fewer rushing attempts overall moving forward. Rushing attempts for individual players also seems to be trending down with fewer players with 200 or more rushing attempts/season each of the last four seasons.

10 years ago for example (2006) there were 10 RB with over 300 rushing attempts and 27 RB with 200 or more rushing attempts.

 

[dickey moe]

In 2015 only one RB had 300 or more rushing attempts, Adrian Peterson. Only 15 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2014 two RB had 300 or more rushing attempts, Murray and McCoy. 17 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2013 two RB had 300 or more rushing attempts, McCoy and Lynch. 22 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2012 five RB had 300 or more rushing attempts. Foster, Peterson, Morris, Martin, Lynch. 24 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

In 2011 two RB had 300 or more rushing attempts. MJD and Michael Turner. 20 RB had 200 or more rushing attempts.

2015 32977 total plays 13490 rushing attempts

2014 32779 total plays 13688 rushing attempts

2013 33302 total plays 13871 rushing attempts

2012 32882 total plays 13925 rushing attempts

2011 32569 total plays 13871 rushing attempts

The last time the league had 14000 or more rushing attempts was 2009 The further you go back the more this change becomes obvious.

Rushing attempts overall are down and the trend seems to be leading to fewer rushing attempts overall moving forward. Rushing attempts for individual players also seems to be trending down with fewer players with 200 or more rushing attempts/season each of the last four seasons.

10 years ago for example (2006) there were 10 RB with over 300 rushing attempts and 27 RB with 200 or more rushing attempts.

Good post. This, and the seemingly greater probability of stud RBs succumbing to injury compared to stud WRs is the crux of the matter.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Outstanding work Biakabatuka! Never be afraid to inject facts into fantasy talk.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

This is fair.

PPR has made WR/TE so much more valuable over RB who might even get the .5PPR

That said, the PPR system is what makes workhorse, big time pass catching RBs such as Freeman and Bell (when healthy) perhaps the most valuable position of all. David Johnson may be another one next year.

Yeah--but even trying to count on predicting who the next best pass catching RB is going to be is a crapshoot. Going into this season--Tevin Coleman and Davonta were thought to be splitting duties until Tevin got hurt--and Davonta ended up really thriving. Bell of course gets hurt--causing Deangelo to be a legit fantasy rb. Even David Johnson needed Chris Johnson and Ellington to suffer some setbacks before he really thrived. I think the key is to draft a couple stud wr's early or a stud te--and then just fill your roster with as many upside rb's as possible in the mid-later rounds. The rb position is basically a revolving door and the landscape is that of a dartboard. The more darts you have to throw--the better the odds of hitting on a good one are. One of my teams that just won a championship had guys like Bilal powell and Tim hightower as being major rb cogs in making this happen. This just goes to show that over the course of a season--there will be opportunities to grab rb1 plays week to week--whereas the odds of finding a weekly wr1 play on the free agent market is relatively small. If you can get a roster where you are relatively set on weekly starting wrs, a decent qb, a decent te--and a volume of upside rb's--I think you are in a prime position to do well. With this setup--you have multiple rb darts rostered--and you also are in a position to allocate the vast majority of your free agent money or waiver positions on those RB plays that inevitably pop up.

 

[zamboni]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

This is fair.

PPR has made WR/TE so much more valuable over RB who might even get the .5PPR

That said, the PPR system is what makes workhorse, big time pass catching RBs such as Freeman and Bell (when healthy) perhaps the most valuable position of all. David Johnson may be another one next year.

Yeah--but even trying to count on predicting who the next best pass catching RB is going to be is a crapshoot. Going into this season--Tevin Coleman and Davonta were thought to be splitting duties until Tevin got hurt--and Davonta ended up really thriving. Bell of course gets hurt--causing Deangelo to be a legit fantasy rb. Even David Johnson needed Chris Johnson and Ellington to suffer some setbacks before he really thrived. I think the key is to draft a couple stud wr's early or a stud te--and then just fill your roster with as many upside rb's as possible in the mid-later rounds. The rb position is basically a revolving door and the landscape is that of a dartboard. The more darts you have to throw--the better the odds of hitting on a good one are. One of my teams that just won a championship had guys like Bilal powell and Tim hightower as being major rb cogs in making this happen. This just goes to show that over the course of a season--there will be opportunities to grab rb1 plays week to week--whereas the odds of finding a weekly wr1 play on the free agent market is relatively small. If you can get a roster where you are relatively set on weekly starting wrs, a decent qb, a decent te--and a volume of upside rb's--I think you are in a prime position to do well. With this setup--you have multiple rb darts rostered--and you also are in a position to allocate the vast majority of your free agent money or waiver positions on those RB plays that inevitably pop up.

The bolded is where I disagree quite a bit. In many leagues (including mine), waivers are based on reverse order of standings, so I never got a chance at the Rawls, Wares, Buck Allens of the world because I was often at the bottom in waiver pecking order.

WRs tend to be much more plentiful and scoring is more compressed than with RBs. While it's typically impossible to find a WR1 in waivers, often WR3 or even WR2 emerge and can be found. And the difference in scoring among WRs (excluding the big guys like Brown, ODB, Hopkins, etc.) is often not huge.

To me, it's about position value when it comes to drafting WRs and RBs. I wouldn't pass up a WR1 or strong WR2 for a run of the mill RB, but if you expect to downplay the drafting of RBs and just try to find them later, odds are you'll be chasing your tail all year for RB production. Injuries are a bigger risk, of course, for RBs, but that's part of the game.

 

[Ghost Rider]

You're right, you didn't say RBs getting hurt was the new norm, I mis-read that, my apologies.

1-Since you asked that I don't "Don't put words in my mouth," would you mind returning the favor? I never said a player underperforming "at all" makes you a bust or disappointment. There's a hell of a lot of difference between being the 1st RB picked, and finishing as the 2nd RB then there is is being the 3rd WR picked and finishing as the 15th WR (AGAIN, I'm talking non-PPR). DT was a bust/disappointment (whichever term you prefer); finishing as WR 15 when you were the 3rd WR picked is disappointing.

2-You can assume that, and you can very well be right. I admitted that I didn't factor Dalton's early injury (in the Pitt) game into my earlier post.

3-This section is long; I provided the names to avoid ambiguity; if you prefer to skip it, look to the red font at the end.

Using real draft info for 12-team leagues conducted after 8/25/15 from MFL.com:

So based on REAL draft ADP:

bust/disappointment rate at RB has gone from 50% in 2013 to 50% in 2014 to 70% this year.

bust/disappointment rate at WR has gone from 25% in 2013 to 43% in 2014 to 56% this year.

bust disappointment rate at QB(top-12 ADP) has gone from 25% in 2013 to 33% in 2014 to 50% this year.

So, yeah, there are more busts/disappointments from top RB picks, but there are a significant amount at WR & TE, too. The bust rate has been increasing for all 3 positions over the last 3 years as well.

Take what you will from this data, but I'm not sure it supports your premise that QBs get underperforming this year was an anomaly.

Edited for formatting purposes.

1 - that is fine if you are stuck on the non-PPR thing in regards to Demaryius, but PPR is the dominant format these days, and and he did finish as the 11th ranked WR in PPR (10th if you count week 17). Also, we can quibble over this draft or that draft, but Demaryius was not the 3rd highest taken WR in the one draft I did and there were 4-5 WRs that went for more than him in every auction I did (Brown, Julio, Dez and sometimes Beckham).

2- Green had another good PPR game this weekend without Dalton.

3- Throwing QBs and TEs into the mix in this discussion seems odd since not many of them go early on in "normal" PPR drafts (unless QBs get 6 points for TD or you have to start two). RBs and WRs probably took 20-22 of the first 24 picks in most drafts this year, so we should leave it at that.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

This is fair.

PPR has made WR/TE so much more valuable over RB who might even get the .5PPR

That said, the PPR system is what makes workhorse, big time pass catching RBs such as Freeman and Bell (when healthy) perhaps the most valuable position of all. David Johnson may be another one next year.

Yeah--but even trying to count on predicting who the next best pass catching RB is going to be is a crapshoot. Going into this season--Tevin Coleman and Davonta were thought to be splitting duties until Tevin got hurt--and Davonta ended up really thriving. Bell of course gets hurt--causing Deangelo to be a legit fantasy rb. Even David Johnson needed Chris Johnson and Ellington to suffer some setbacks before he really thrived. I think the key is to draft a couple stud wr's early or a stud te--and then just fill your roster with as many upside rb's as possible in the mid-later rounds. The rb position is basically a revolving door and the landscape is that of a dartboard. The more darts you have to throw--the better the odds of hitting on a good one are. One of my teams that just won a championship had guys like Bilal powell and Tim hightower as being major rb cogs in making this happen. This just goes to show that over the course of a season--there will be opportunities to grab rb1 plays week to week--whereas the odds of finding a weekly wr1 play on the free agent market is relatively small. If you can get a roster where you are relatively set on weekly starting wrs, a decent qb, a decent te--and a volume of upside rb's--I think you are in a prime position to do well. With this setup--you have multiple rb darts rostered--and you also are in a position to allocate the vast majority of your free agent money or waiver positions on those RB plays that inevitably pop up.

The bolded is where I disagree quite a bit. In many leagues (including mine), waivers are based on reverse order of standings, so I never got a chance at the Rawls, Wares, Buck Allens of the world because I was often at the bottom in waiver pecking order.

WRs tend to be much more plentiful and scoring is more compressed than with RBs. While it's typically impossible to find a WR1 in waivers, often WR3 or even WR2 emerge and can be found. And the difference in scoring among WRs (excluding the big guys like Brown, ODB, Hopkins, etc.) is often not huge.

To me, it's about position value when it comes to drafting WRs and RBs. I wouldn't pass up a WR1 or strong WR2 for a run of the mill RB, but if you expect to downplay the drafting of RBs and just try to find them later, odds are you'll be chasing your tail all year for RB production. Injuries are a bigger risk, of course, for RBs, but that's part of the game.

I think the format of your league obviously has a lot to do with why you disagree. I have to tell you that I personally hate that format. I don't see any reason why any league should penalize teams for performing well. I have never wanted to play in a league with that format. I always go for rotating waivers or free agent auction money. In your format--the vast majority of the stud rbs that pop up over the course of a season will probably never reach the really good teams--so in your case--you really have to be very draft dependent. I think this would also support drafting solid wrs (so that you aren't wasting any extra roster space on them)--and really drafting a volume of upside Rb's. I think even in your format--that my overall strategy could be sound.

 

[shadyridr]

This year only 7 RBs had 1000 yards rushing. I know some of that is due to injuries but that's pretty incredible.

 

[dirtyjay]

This year only 7 RBs had 1000 yards rushing. I know some of that is due to injuries but that's pretty incredible.

For those wondering who-

Peterson 1485

Martin 1402

Gurley 1106

McFadden 1089

Ivory 1070

Murray 1066

Freeman 1061

McFadden and Ivory were in the top 5.

 

[BobbyLayne]

This year only 7 RBs had 1000 yards rushing. I know some of that is due to injuries but that's pretty incredible.

The NFL averaged 17 1000 yard rushers per season 2000-12.

2013 & 2014 - 13 each.

 

[ghostguy123]

And this is all in a time where the QB position is all over the map also. QB play has been pretty bad overall, yet still this current value discrepancy between RB and WR.

Then again, poor QB play in a weird way might help WR points while hurting RB points.

 

[davearm]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

This is fair.

PPR has made WR/TE so much more valuable over RB who might even get the .5PPR

That said, the PPR system is what makes workhorse, big time pass catching RBs such as Freeman and Bell (when healthy) perhaps the most valuable position of all. David Johnson may be another one next year.

Yeah--but even trying to count on predicting who the next best pass catching RB is going to be is a crapshoot. Going into this season--Tevin Coleman and Davonta were thought to be splitting duties until Tevin got hurt--and Davonta ended up really thriving. Bell of course gets hurt--causing Deangelo to be a legit fantasy rb. Even David Johnson needed Chris Johnson and Ellington to suffer some setbacks before he really thrived. I think the key is to draft a couple stud wr's early or a stud te--and then just fill your roster with as many upside rb's as possible in the mid-later rounds. The rb position is basically a revolving door and the landscape is that of a dartboard. The more darts you have to throw--the better the odds of hitting on a good one are. One of my teams that just won a championship had guys like Bilal powell and Tim hightower as being major rb cogs in making this happen. This just goes to show that over the course of a season--there will be opportunities to grab rb1 plays week to week--whereas the odds of finding a weekly wr1 play on the free agent market is relatively small. If you can get a roster where you are relatively set on weekly starting wrs, a decent qb, a decent te--and a volume of upside rb's--I think you are in a prime position to do well. With this setup--you have multiple rb darts rostered--and you also are in a position to allocate the vast majority of your free agent money or waiver positions on those RB plays that inevitably pop up.

The bolded is where I disagree quite a bit. In many leagues (including mine), waivers are based on reverse order of standings, so I never got a chance at the Rawls, Wares, Buck Allens of the world because I was often at the bottom in waiver pecking order.

WRs tend to be much more plentiful and scoring is more compressed than with RBs. While it's typically impossible to find a WR1 in waivers, often WR3 or even WR2 emerge and can be found. And the difference in scoring among WRs (excluding the big guys like Brown, ODB, Hopkins, etc.) is often not huge.

To me, it's about position value when it comes to drafting WRs and RBs. I wouldn't pass up a WR1 or strong WR2 for a run of the mill RB, but if you expect to downplay the drafting of RBs and just try to find them later, odds are you'll be chasing your tail all year for RB production. Injuries are a bigger risk, of course, for RBs, but that's part of the game.

It'd be more accurate to say, you had a chance at those guys, but once the guy ahead got hurt, it was too late. Those guys were probably on the wire for weeks.

 

[zamboni]

(in no particular order)

OBJ, Julio, Brown, Hopkins

Robinson, Green, Demaryius

All guys I could see going before a RB is taken. Plus Gronk.

This basically says that not only has PPR outlived its usefulness, the pendulum has in fact swung so far that it is detrimental to the goal of positional balance.

This is fair.

PPR has made WR/TE so much more valuable over RB who might even get the .5PPR

That said, the PPR system is what makes workhorse, big time pass catching RBs such as Freeman and Bell (when healthy) perhaps the most valuable position of all. David Johnson may be another one next year.

Yeah--but even trying to count on predicting who the next best pass catching RB is going to be is a crapshoot. Going into this season--Tevin Coleman and Davonta were thought to be splitting duties until Tevin got hurt--and Davonta ended up really thriving. Bell of course gets hurt--causing Deangelo to be a legit fantasy rb. Even David Johnson needed Chris Johnson and Ellington to suffer some setbacks before he really thrived. I think the key is to draft a couple stud wr's early or a stud te--and then just fill your roster with as many upside rb's as possible in the mid-later rounds. The rb position is basically a revolving door and the landscape is that of a dartboard. The more darts you have to throw--the better the odds of hitting on a good one are. One of my teams that just won a championship had guys like Bilal powell and Tim hightower as being major rb cogs in making this happen. This just goes to show that over the course of a season--there will be opportunities to grab rb1 plays week to week--whereas the odds of finding a weekly wr1 play on the free agent market is relatively small. If you can get a roster where you are relatively set on weekly starting wrs, a decent qb, a decent te--and a volume of upside rb's--I think you are in a prime position to do well. With this setup--you have multiple rb darts rostered--and you also are in a position to allocate the vast majority of your free agent money or waiver positions on those RB plays that inevitably pop up.

The bolded is where I disagree quite a bit. In many leagues (including mine), waivers are based on reverse order of standings, so I never got a chance at the Rawls, Wares, Buck Allens of the world because I was often at the bottom in waiver pecking order.

WRs tend to be much more plentiful and scoring is more compressed than with RBs. While it's typically impossible to find a WR1 in waivers, often WR3 or even WR2 emerge and can be found. And the difference in scoring among WRs (excluding the big guys like Brown, ODB, Hopkins, etc.) is often not huge.

To me, it's about position value when it comes to drafting WRs and RBs. I wouldn't pass up a WR1 or strong WR2 for a run of the mill RB, but if you expect to downplay the drafting of RBs and just try to find them later, odds are you'll be chasing your tail all year for RB production. Injuries are a bigger risk, of course, for RBs, but that's part of the game.

It'd be more accurate to say, you had a chance at those guys, but once the guy ahead got hurt, it was too late. Those guys were probably on the wire for weeks.

Of course, but with limited roster size, you can't get them all. And Nostradamus, I'm not.

I did fortunately draft David Johnson and Langford, mainly because I went into the season (we're a deep keeper league) with Ellington, Forte and Spiller ( ) as my RBs.

 

[davearm]

Of course you can't get them all. You went with Johnson and Langford, and those turned out to be solid picks. You could have had Johnson and Rawls instead, or Johnson Langford and Rawls, with no Spiller. There was probably a way you could have had Johnson and Langford and all three of Rawls Ware and Allen, if you went thin elsewhere.

Regardless, the guys you don't choose to spend a roster slot on -- before the starter ahead gets hurt -- are very likely to land on someone else's team.

About the best you can say is the guy with the very worst record in effect has one extra roster slot, by virtue of owning the first waiver selection. Nobody is envying that guy though, because who wants to have the worst record?