The Trent Richardson Thread (2 Viewers)

[Bracie Smathers]

Reactions of the value of RB Trent Richardson and of the trade have changed in a bi-polar manner but a consensous of sorts if begining to emerge over time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trent-richardson-trade-shocked-nfl-210720546.html

The Trent Richardson Trade That Shocked The NFL Was Officially A Genius Move

 

[Sabertooth]

Oof. Starting to worry. I'm all in on Trent in two dynasty leagues.

 

[Todem]

Reactions of the value of RB Trent Richardson and of the trade have changed in a bi-polar manner but a consensous of sorts if begining to emerge over time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trent-richardson-trade-shocked-nfl-210720546.html

The Trent Richardson Trade That Shocked The NFL Was Officially A Genius Move

That is just plain dumb.

We are not going to know how this turns out after the year is over....the Browns pick and how it turns out.

So much time before we can determine if both teams won...or lost or one team won one team lost.....Richardson should improve as the season wears on and he get's comfortable with the offense.

(I keep telling myself that).

 

[EBF]

Last year can mostly be excused by the rookie factor, the Browns factor, and the injury factor. That article makes no mention of the fact that Richardson would've been a marked man on last year's Browns team and that he would've been probably the main focus of any opposing defense whenever on the field (at least until Gordon started to show something). It also makes absolutely no mention of his rib injury.

If it's December and he still hasn't shown anything for Indy, I'd say there will be a lot more substance to the chicken little panic. The longer Richardson's struggles drag on, the less it looks like an isolated incident and the more it becomes a real pattern. As of right now I think it's still premature. People lose patience pretty quickly in FF and tend to overreact to short term results. In many ways that effect is amplified when a player is highly touted because everyone expects him to come in and be great right away. When that doesn't happen, people respond almost as if they've been cheated. "Hey, I thought this guy was supposed to be the second coming. He sucks!"

Everyone said Reggie Bush sucked as a rusher after his first few seasons. Everyone thought Thomas Jones was horrible after he washed out of Arizona. Trust me, back in 2003 you would've been laughed off the boards if you said that Thomas Jones was about to rush for 5 consecutive 1000+ yard seasons. He was about as highly rated by FBG posters as Mark Ingram is right now. There are actually a lot of variables besides sheer talent that factor into a player's results. Supporting cast. Health/injuries. Offensive scheme. Experience and maturity. Add it all up and I'm not buying the idea that this 3.0 YPC Trent Richardson is the real Trent Richardson.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Reactions of the value of RB Trent Richardson and of the trade have changed in a bi-polar manner but a consensous of sorts if begining to emerge over time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trent-richardson-trade-shocked-nfl-210720546.html

The Trent Richardson Trade That Shocked The NFL Was Officially A Genius Move

That is just plain dumb.

We are not going to know how this turns out after the year is over....the Browns pick and how it turns out.

So much time before we can determine if both teams won...or lost or one team won one team lost.....Richardson should improve as the season wears on and he get's comfortable with the offense.

(I keep telling myself that).

Well, for the Browns I think its clear that they

Reactions of the value of RB Trent Richardson and of the trade have changed in a bi-polar manner but a consensous of sorts if begining to emerge over time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trent-richardson-trade-shocked-nfl-210720546.html

The Trent Richardson Trade That Shocked The NFL Was Officially A Genius Move

That is just plain dumb.

We are not going to know how this turns out after the year is over....the Browns pick and how it turns out.

So much time before we can determine if both teams won...or lost or one team won one team lost.....Richardson should improve as the season wears on and he get's comfortable with the offense.

(I keep telling myself that).

Well, from the Browns point of view, they were not getting much from Trent this year and last year his pressene didn't lead to more wins. Additionally since he wasn't providing much production this season the Browns were able to patch together a run game that has produced similiar numbers to what they were getting from T-Rich.

I think Richardson has helped provide the Colts a toughness in the runnin game that they would not have had but I think they wanted or expected more from Richardson. They might get more but they may never fufill high end expectations.

I think the Browns front office had an agenda of getting a high pick to help land a franchise QB but the logic was that they could trade Richardson and get a high pick and MOST IMPORTANTLY OF ALL, be able to patch together a running game without missing what Richardson was providing the team.

The value traded away by the Browns front office is negligible in terms of the miniscule difference of production. In the end they will get a first round pick even if they are unable to use it as part of a package to land a franchise QB.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

So, for the record EBF, as of today you're still buying him as 1.01 in startup value?

 

[Art_VanDalay]

I am really down right now. I loved this kid out of college. Took him 1 overall last year in my rookie draft....took him 7th overall in my redraft. I was sold he would be a stud this year.

Has not happened yet.

Still have faith.....but this is really hard to watch right now.

I agree as another TRich owner. I have to say, I think I have seen enough after two seasons to say that the NFL scouts missed on this guy and he is not what was being sold coming out of Bama. The biggest problem I see with him is he lacks vision and more importantly, burst or speed. You can see it in his runs this weekend where there were a few times where he left yards on the field and could have bounced outside after the first wave if he had some juice. Everyone said he didn't have top end speed coming out of college which is fine and would prevent him from the long 30+ yard TDs. But the bigger problem I see with him is he doesn't have "quickness", especially in the hole and at the point of attack. He doesn't seem to be using any jump cuts or finding creases in the defense. It is almost as if he is enjoying taking on defenders and contact and while he is breaking tackles, I think he is having to break more tackles than other backs because he is being easily grabbed and chased down. Don Brown has shown much more burst in his runs attacking the hole than Richardson has. I can't believe I am saying this but after watching the games this week, my reaction was ...Marion Barber. TRich is playing like Barber did with the Cowboys and we all know how short lived and bad that eventually turned out minus the high pedigree and draft pick.

For TRich believers, I will offer one glimmer of hope and its that I think he is still adjusting to his OL on the fly and is being overly patient waiting for things to develop before he makes his move. He should be getting more fluid with them each week though and that hasn't really happened that much. A few passes in open space would be nice and would give us a better indication of whether he just needs some room to run or if he truly is a plodder.

For those that own him, I say you need to hold him right now. He still could emerge as a solid RB option for FF this year at a position that has been like the twilight zone this year and where you start to do cartwheels when your RB gets 100 yards combined that isn't named Peterson. The only thing you can bank on is he will continue to get lots of opportunities and I am betting Bradshaw is done for the year. You may want to pick up Donnie Brown and pair them together because the Colts offense should continue to play well regardless of their opponent given their aireal attack, as we saw this week vs. Seattle. Good luck whichever way you go!

 

[EBF]

So, for the record EBF, as of today you're still buying him as 1.01 in startup value?

No, I'm not sure I would've taken him quite that high in the first place. All else being equal, I'll usually take a great WR ahead of a great RB.

There's little reason to take Trent ahead of one of the great young WRs like Thomas, Julio, or Bryant. With the way Jimmy Graham is playing, it would be tough to take Trent ahead of him too. I think Richardson's value has fallen by about 5-10 spots. He's still a top 3 dynasty RB for me though. Somewhere in the mix with Martin and McCoy. His dynasty value definitely benefits from the lack of RBs who are both really talented and really young.

 

[Shutout]

I don't think this is as slam dunk for trich as people are saying. Teams with GREAT qbs, and I think Luck is on that path, don't build their teams around what a RB will bring to the table. The RB benefits from Rodgers or Bree's, not the other way around.

At best, I see this as a sjax to Atlanta in the best case scenario but definitely not as good as even a few months ago when people were drooling that trich would get a ton of carries in Cleveland and be the focal point. The colts want a power running game. Don't misinterpret that for "we want to run all the time". They just want a physical and reliable player that can clinch games and move the chains, not some guy that they are going to waste all their offensive talent behind and just sit back and hand it to all day.

I think this move solidifies trich in the sense that he is probably now a safer top 10 guy but in no way do I see it as it makes him a better ff play (like, he's now a top 3-4 RB).

No.

This is a huge upgrade for Richardson. In Cleveland, Trent was the only viable offensive weapon, and defenses knew that. Richardson had very little room to run. In Indy, Richardson is going to be startled at the huge running lanes he's going to see. Obviously, the Colts aren't going to revert to a grind it out running team. But we know that Indy wants to have a solid running game.

Richardson just went from being a wasted talent on a bad team to a fantastic offense that will use him early and often.

I'm going to give us each ½ credit on this. They are using him but he isn't doing much with it.

 

[Shutout]

So, for the record EBF, as of today you're still buying him as 1.01 in startup value?

No, I'm not sure I would've taken him quite that high in the first place. All else being equal, I'll usually take a great WR ahead of a great RB.

There's little reason to take Trent ahead of one of the great young WRs like Thomas, Julio, or Bryant. With the way Jimmy Graham is playing, it would be tough to take Trent ahead of him too. I think Richardson's value has fallen by about 5-10 spots. He's still a top 3 dynasty RB for me though. Somewhere in the mix with Martin and McCoy. His dynasty value definitely benefits from the lack of RBs who are both really talented and really young.

I think his value ahs taken MUCH more of a hit than that. In a startup dynasty, I couldn't take him over 8-10 WRs, a TE, maybe a QB or three, and given the short shelf-life of RBs, I'd be 10X happier to go with 7-8 rbs that are proven and relatively young instead of grabbing mr. Potential here and thinking "I'll have this guy for years".

 

[EBF]

So, for the record EBF, as of today you're still buying him as 1.01 in startup value?

No, I'm not sure I would've taken him quite that high in the first place. All else being equal, I'll usually take a great WR ahead of a great RB.

There's little reason to take Trent ahead of one of the great young WRs like Thomas, Julio, or Bryant. With the way Jimmy Graham is playing, it would be tough to take Trent ahead of him too. I think Richardson's value has fallen by about 5-10 spots. He's still a top 3 dynasty RB for me though. Somewhere in the mix with Martin and McCoy. His dynasty value definitely benefits from the lack of RBs who are both really talented and really young.

I think his value ahs taken MUCH more of a hit than that. In a startup dynasty, I couldn't take him over 8-10 WRs, a TE, maybe a QB or three, and given the short shelf-life of RBs, I'd be 10X happier to go with 7-8 rbs that are proven and relatively young instead of grabbing mr. Potential here and thinking "I'll have this guy for years".

I was just providing my personal take, not where I think other people would rank him. I'm not really interested in paying a high price for an established player on the backslope of his career because that's just not how I run my teams, so I would not be interested in someone like Peterson or Marshall ahead of Richardson.

The only guys I would clearly rank ahead of him are established stars with similar longevity potential, and there aren't a lot of those to go around.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Last year can mostly be excused by the rookie factor, the Browns factor, and the injury factor. That article makes no mention of the fact that Richardson would've been a marked man on last year's Browns team and that he would've been probably the main focus of any opposing defense whenever on the field (at least until Gordon started to show something). It also makes absolutely no mention of his rib injury.

If it's December and he still hasn't shown anything for Indy, I'd say there will be a lot more substance to the chicken little panic. The longer Richardson's struggles drag on, the less it looks like an isolated incident and the more it becomes a real pattern. As of right now I think it's still premature. People lose patience pretty quickly in FF and tend to overreact to short term results. In many ways that effect is amplified when a player is highly touted because everyone expects him to come in and be great right away. When that doesn't happen, people respond almost as if they've been cheated. "Hey, I thought this guy was supposed to be the second coming. He sucks!"

Everyone said Reggie Bush sucked as a rusher after his first few seasons. Everyone thought Thomas Jones was horrible after he washed out of Arizona. Trust me, back in 2003 you would've been laughed off the boards if you said that Thomas Jones was about to rush for 5 consecutive 1000+ yard seasons. He was about as highly rated by FBG posters as Mark Ingram is right now. There are actually a lot of variables besides sheer talent that factor into a player's results. Supporting cast. Health/injuries. Offensive scheme. Experience and maturity. Add it all up and I'm not buying the idea that this 3.0 YPC Trent Richardson is the real Trent Richardson.

It's tricky, because for every RB that had legitimate reasons for them to turn it on 3-5 years into their career there are two dozen others that had seemingly legitimate reasons for doing the same, only for us to realize they were just excuses.

Every bust had just as many reasons for them starting slowly as Thomas Jones or Reggie Bush did, and as Richardson has now. In the end we discovered that those were excuses, not reasons. Heck, I STILL have Beanie Wells on my fantasy team when I could have gotten good value out of him a few years ago. But I had all these seemingly legitimate reasons in my head as to why I couldn't take his paultry YPC at face value. "Legitimate reasons" that were actually just excuses. To take an example that are closer to heart you, there are many folks who spent the last few years coming up with, in their mind, legitimate reasons why Darren McFadden was still going to end up being a top 5 FF RB while his leftover value continued to drain away. And people that STILL hold onto him now thinking it's going to happen because, I don't know, the blocking scheme he's running in now just isn't well suited to him.

Sure, it's possible that Richardson is an elite talent who is currently suffering from played-hurt-in-his-rookie-year-on-a-bad-team-that-has-a-good-oline-on-paper-and-then-got-traded-to-a-much-better-team-but-is-still-performing-horribly-and-worse-than-his-teammates-because-he-doesn't-know-the-whole-playbook-yet-and-his-qb-doesn't-trust-him-yet-but-it's-all-going-to-turn-around, but history tells us it's probably more likely that you're going to look back 3 years from now and wished you'd not made a bunch of excuses to yourself that prevented you from getting some pretty decent value out of Richardson while he still had it.

The list of RBs that had excuses to looks like a bust 21 games into their career and actually ended up being busts is a LOT longer than the list of RBs that had excuses to look like a bust 21 games into their career and ended up being great fantasy players. A LOT longer.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The list of RBs that had excuses to looks like a bust 21 games into their career and actually ended up being busts is a LOT longer than the list of RBs that had excuses to look like a bust 21 games into their career and ended up being great fantasy players. A LOT longer.

Really

Not to mention, guys like Thomas Jones never had the opportunity to do anything before the change in scenery, while Richardson has been given all the opportunity in the world.

 

[Biabreakable]

The list of RBs that had excuses to looks like a bust 21 games into their career and actually ended up being busts is a LOT longer than the list of RBs that had excuses to look like a bust 21 games into their career and ended up being great fantasy players. A LOT longer.

Really

Not to mention, guys like Thomas Jones never had the opportunity to do anything before the change in scenery, while Richardson has been given all the opportunity in the world.

I really disagree.

1st of all why FreeBaGel ever had Beanie Wells as a high RB prospect confuses me. The guy had red flags all over him even before he played a down in the NFL. Only the Cardinals were dumb enough to draft him as high as they did. Then people thought the Cardinals made a good move? That isn't much smarter. The guy had fail writted all over him.

Tom Jones had injuries that derailed his early career, besides just the fact that the Cardinals have been such a bad team. And Richardson has outperformed Jones early career thus far. So not sure why you think this is such a good post at all.

I do think it could be useful and interesting to see Garda back up his statement about similar RB who busted instead of performed well later on in their careers after a rough start. I actually think if we look at all of those situations the only ones who do NOT do well later in their careers are the guys who had career ending injury. But maybe I am wrong. That is my guess. And Jones is a great example of why NOT to give up so quickly on Richardson.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Wells is a great comp for Richardson man. Both hyped based on being a high draft pick and despite looking like trash on the field. Both with one decent fantasy season based around fluky goal line usage. Both with a pile of injury and team-related excuses offered up by the bandwagon riders.

Use your eyes man -- Trent is a turd.

 

[thehornet]

I would love to see him in space more. it's not like Donald Duck is better in pass pro.

 

[habsfan]

I would love to see him in space more. it's not like Donald Duck is better in pass pro.

I don't disagree but in fairness, what team doesn't want to see their RB in space more?

<insert RB here>

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Anyone still laughing at the trade Cleveland made?

They won the last two games because of their defense. And the fact that Manuel got knocked out in the middle of the 3rd quarter. And the fact that when they lost their starting QB tonight, they still had a first rounder to step in and finish the game well.

And?

Seriously, all that does is further the point that RB's don't matter that much.

The Indy side is definitely reaching a dead end with Thomas Jones comparisons. He was a nice player and all but never a game changer; at no point in his career would anyone have given up a 1st for him.

On the plus side there's always the "scoreboard/record" argument. Congratulations on being the luckiest organization in sports with the first pick in '98 & '12, I guess.

 

[DoubleG]

Wells is a great comp for Richardson man. Both hyped based on being a high draft pick and despite looking like trash on the field. Both with one decent fantasy season based around fluky goal line usage. Both with a pile of injury and team-related excuses offered up by the bandwagon riders.

I have disagree with this. First off, when Wells came out, he wasn't even considered by most people to the be the best RB in that draft (Moreno was - and his rookie ADP proved it almost universally compared to Wells' ADP). Secondly, Trent was thought of more highly in terms of his skill set. No one was talking about Wells (or Moreno) being the next best RB this side of Adrian Peterson. Third, that draft class wasn't thought to be as good at the RB position as this one was.

While I don't disagree that Trent owners should start to be concerned, I don't think Wells is the comp just yet.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I would love to see him in space more. it's not like Donald Duck God-Damn-it-Donald is better in pass pro.

 

[EBF]

Beanie Wells was nowhere near the prospect Trent was and is a terrible comparison in pretty much every way.

The list of RBs that had excuses to looks like a bust 21 games into their career and actually ended up being busts is a LOT longer than the list of RBs that had excuses to look like a bust 21 games into their career and ended up being great fantasy players. A LOT longer.

How many of those guys were top 10 picks? Here is every RB drafted in the top 10 in the past 15 years:

2010 - 1.09 CJ Spiller

2008 - 1.04 Darren McFadden

2007 - 1.07 Adrian Peterson

2006 - 1.02 Reggie Bush

2005 - 1.02 Ronnie Brown

2005 - 1.04 Cedric Benson

2005 - 1.05 Cadillac Williams

2001 - 1.05 LaDainian Tomlinson

2000 - 1.05 Jamal Lewis

2000 - 1.07 Thomas Jones

1999 - 1.04 Edgerrin James

1999 - 1.05 Ricky Williams

1998 - 1.05 Curtis Enis

1998 - 1.09 Fred Taylor

The vast majority of those guys were very good or at least had individual seasons that were very good. In fact, Curtis Enis is the only player out of this 14 man list who never rushed for 1000+ yards at least once in his career. Even a lot of the relative flops like McFadden, Ronnie, and Cadillac had at least one strong season. And well over half these guys had very strong, borderline HOF type of careers.

It's not by accident that a RB gets picked in the top 10. To go that high, you have to be special. Richardson wasn't just a top 10 pick, but a STRONG top 5 pick in a STRONG draft. I won't bother going back and copying/pasting all of the glowing scouting reports, but there wasn't an evaluator on the planet who didn't think this guy was a premier talent. If you're willing to toss that all aside because he's been relatively poor in the first 20 games of his NFL career (virtually all of which have been played in less than optimal circumstances -- injuries, bad running teams, new playbook), so be it. I think that's overly reactive given his pedigree. At this point I just don't find the evidence so damning that you should be jumping ship immediately. A player with Trent's background deserves a longer leash because of all the objective data points in his favor. As guys like Lynch, Reggie, Spiller, and Crabtree have shown in recent seasons, there is typically a good reason why a draft prospect comes into the league with a top reputation. As the saying in soccer goes, form is temporary, but class is permanent. With that level of talent, it is only a matter of time.

As far as T-Rich in the NFL, I definitely would've liked to have seen more good games and more big plays by now. On the other hand, the idea that he's shown nothing has no basis in reality. He looked quite good last year before his injury and really flashed his potential in the Cincinnati game early in the season. I'm not seeing the sluggish plodder here. Could he be a bust when all is said and done? I guess it's possible, but I still find it unlikely that what we're seeing right now is the real Trent Richardson. In order to believe that, I'd essentially have to believe that he's the worst RB in the NFL because that's what it would take to be a lifetime 3.1 YPC rusher. He can't possibly be that bad, which leads me to think that what we're seeing now is probably a combination of many factors.

15 of his 20 games were for the Browns. I don't need to explain why that was a bad situation. He was also a rookie. Go look and see how Ricky Williams and LaDainian Tomlinson did as rookies on bad teams. Now Richardson is on the Colts. They have a much better QB than the Browns and a much better offense, but...they're not a good running team at the moment (one of the worst in the NFL last year with mostly the same team) and he's still being used in a limited capacity (much of his value IRL and in FF comes from his ability as a receiver, but we've hardly seen that facet of his game at all since he came to the Colts. Strictly a battering ram for the time being.) Oh, and if that wasn't enough, two of his first three games for the Colts came against the 49ers and the Seahawks. Not exactly dream opponents.

At this point I'm just rehashing the same arguments. Like every other player for whom the jury is still out, you're going to see different opinions based on where people stood in the first place and based on how fickle they are by nature. If you believed that Richardson was justifiably an elite RB prospect, it's likely that you can write off his struggles as the result of unfavorable circumstances. If you're more of a nervous owner and/or you weren't totally sold on Richardson in the first place, it's likely that you're going to look at the 20 games of 3 yards and a cloud of dust as definitive proof that he's a fraud.

These are the puzzles that FF owners have to solve. You can say William Green and David Terrell. I can say Ricky Williams and Michael Crabtree. You can say the odds are against a player becoming an elite NFL back if he's been so poor in his first 1+ season. I can say the odds are for any RB picked in the top 10 eventually becoming an impact player. We can go around in circles all week. I think I've made it clear where I stand. There might come a time to pull the plug, but I'm still holding.

 

[amnesiac]

i sure hope he ends up having a great career, cause i can't move him for anything of value.

 

[Ebaker5]

i sure hope he ends up having a great career, cause i can't move him for anything of value.

What are we unloading this guy for? Have a shot at James Jones but don't wanna short sell Trich or are we giving him one more week to learn the book and make things happen. It was kind of depressing seeing Donald Brown getting that GL carry last week.

 

[BWill]

Sit tight. Do NOT move him for James Jones.

Cleveland homer.... and I think his move to Indy is going to benefit him once he's fully in sync with their offense.

 

[RushHour]

Yeah I would hope you could do a bit better than James Jones. Sheesh. His value hasn't fallen that far.

 

[Ebaker5]

lol, Jones owner was trying to move him for doug Martin lol

 

[Jewell]

He's still a top 3 dynasty RB for me though. Somewhere in the mix with Martin and McCoy. His dynasty value definitely benefits from the lack of RBs who are both really talented and really young.

Alfred Morris was in the same rookie class as Richardson, has shown infinitely more than Richardson on the NFL level, and is in an offense that preferably wants to run. Granted, Richardson caught more balls than Morris last year, but it doesn't look like the Colts are going to use Ricrdson as a pass catcher (only 1 reception with the Colts.) So ranking Richardson above Morris suggests that greater weight is being given to their respective reputations entering the NFL than what they've done in the NFL.

 

[KellysHeroes]

how many people took him this yr in startups at 1.01, people said I was stupid to trade out, drop back and draft Dez & Julio back 2 back

 

[gcoast3]

No doubt TRich is under performing, but so are other RB's.

Today

Rice. 27 for 74 yds

Miller. 7 for 15 yds

P Thomas 19 for 36 yds

Bush. 13 for 44 yds

CJ2K. 10 for 17 yds

McCoy. 20 for 46 yds

MJD. 17 for 70 yds

Time will tell. Very few RB's are doing well every week.

Yeah but none of those guys have been as consistently mediocre as Richardson.

Rice is averaging 2.9 per carry. Martin is averaging 3.4 per carry. CJ2K is averaging 3.1 per carry.

Not sure if it the emphasis on passing? Who knows?

 

[EBF]

Alfred Morris was in the same rookie class as Richardson, has shown infinitely more than Richardson on the NFL level, and is in an offense that preferably wants to run. Granted, Richardson caught more balls than Morris last year, but it doesn't look like the Colts are going to use Ricrdson as a pass catcher (only 1 reception with the Colts.) So ranking Richardson above Morris suggests that greater weight is being given to their respective reputations entering the NFL than what they've done in the NFL.

Morris has clearly been a better rusher up to this point, but that's not guaranteed to continue and he doesn't have the same potential as a receiver, which is a huge variable in PPR. I don't think Trent's limited use as a receiver in three games as a Colt proves that they're not going to use him in that facet. More than anything, it's probably a consequence of him learning the offense on the fly. I would expect him to eventually get a lot of opportunities on dump-offs and screens.

He caught 51 passes last year. Morris caught 16. This year Morris is on pace with 12 catches. That's the big problem with Morris. His value stems entirely from his rushing yards. Last year he ran for 1500+ yards and Trent still outscored him in PPR despite having a pretty bad season running the ball. Now imagine what their numbers will look like if Trent becomes a more effective runner. They won't even be close. I think Trent is going to be like Rice, Foster, and Forte in the sense that he's always going to get 40-60 catches per year to prop up his numbers. That's a huge component of his FF value.

 

[Biabreakable]

Wells is a great comp for Richardson man. Both hyped based on being a high draft pick and despite looking like trash on the field. Both with one decent fantasy season based around fluky goal line usage. Both with a pile of injury and team-related excuses offered up by the bandwagon riders.

Use your eyes man -- Trent is a turd.

I have watched him play. I disagree.

Beanie Wells was never close to him either.

 

[Boomer1]

I was offered R. Bush straight up ( I also own Bell). I'm moving on....

 

[thehornet]

Wells is a great comp for Richardson man. Both hyped based on being a high draft pick and despite looking like trash on the field. Both with one decent fantasy season based around fluky goal line usage. Both with a pile of injury and team-related excuses offered up by the bandwagon riders.

Use your eyes man -- Trent is a turd.

Sigh. We know where you stand at this point. Feel free to stop commenting or say something new. Your Schtick is boring.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Beanie isn't comparable to Richardson because they were similar talent-wise, he is comparable because he's a guy that people continually made excuses for until it became clear that those excuses were just that, and we now look back at them as "obvious red flags".

It's not just a Beanie thing though, it's true of every bust there's ever been. That was kind of my point. All of these reasons that we come up to convince ourselves that Richardson is gonna turn could just as easily (and via history, are more likely to) be the same thing as we've done with every bust before. It's just in our nature to come up with reasons why a guy is getting the shaft when he's someone we were high on. Mark Ingram is perhaps an even better example. So many reasons that people came up with that, quite frankly, were just contrived and were easily debunked. But people just stuck their fingers and their ears and went lalalalala as those reasons were laid out, because they weren't ready to back off of a guy they were high on.

Richardson was on a bad team and was injured. Now he's not, but something new has come up. And in two months, if he's still underperforming, it could just as easily be something else. I dunno, "they're not using him right". Take your pick.

So the question is, how do we differentiate between the actual legitimate reasons and the excuses that we were passing off as legitimate reasons? Well, for starters, when those "legitimate reasons" completely flip in the opposite direction and things don't get any better, that's a big red flag. Richardson was injured and on a bad offense. Now he's 100% healthy and on a terrific offense (where every other RB has performed well). That's as good a change as you could possibly ask for in those regards. So now he's learning the playbook. That, realistically, is just a guess. Pure theorycraft. We have no data telling us that's a real problem. He runs a lot of HB dives. The Vikes don't do much more exotic stuff with Adrian Peterson than HB dives and he's rarely (only once) had a passing game that commanded the kind of respect that Luck gets in Indy.

Another big red flag is when one of those excuses, sorry for the bluntness, is BS. Bad offenses or passing games are not an intolerable obstacle for a running back. Every year, every single year, more of the top 10 FF running backs come from bad offenses than come from good ones. Beyond that, every early pick starts on a bad team.

Guys like Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are constantly cited of examples of how people could bounce back. But really, how often does that happen? Perhaps an even better question is, of the guys that those players have been cited in as an example of "what could be", how many people have actually become them? I've heard people say "Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson did it!" many times, but all of the players they were using that in an argument for still suck today, and most have value half of what it was at the time. It's the exception, not the rule.

As to the other top 10 RBs, that's not really where I was going with the comparison, but it's a meh argument to me anyway. For starters, it's been 17 months since Richardson was drafted. That ship has kind of sailed. Beyond that, few of those guys referenced struggled for as long as Richardson has. Once you narrow down the list to those guys it looks a lot worse. Sorry, but as much as I was citing LT/Ricky's slow start this offseason as well, that comparison is dead and gone. By this point in their second year both of those guys were lighting it up. On bad teams, no less.

One last point about that is, c'mon, that's really not nearly the list of infallible players it's being cracked up to be. Are we really going to sit here and pretend that a guy having a good season or a few good games any way makes him not a huge bust when he's, in many leagues, the #1 overall dynasty player (and in all leagues, top 10) entering the year? The only scenario where Cadillac Williams isn't a massive bust is the scenario where he compares to a guy you're arguing in favor of. I mean, if we can get EBF to spin Darren McFadden in a positive light, you know things are being twisted around.

I'm not saying that Trent is going to be a bust. I was super high on him coming into this year despite his rookie season. I'm still trying to buy him where I can find someone trying to sell him low. I'm just saying that we need to start looking at "reasons" for guys underperforming objectively and from the standpoint that, as good as they sound in theory, they often don't mesh with reality. Every "obvious red flag" was once a legitimate reason, often by the same person later citing them as obvious red flags. Every player has a laundry list of reasons that sound good as to why they're going to turn everything around. In reality, most of them just suck, and continue to do so. Not saying that's Richardson, but the odds are heavily against him.

 

[Biabreakable]

Now that was a good post.

Honestly I think this could go either way. Either Richardson improves or he continues to not be that special. But 2-3 games with the Colts is not enough of a sample for me to know. I am trying to be objective about it. Wait and see.

As to the Ingram comparison, I did find looking at the Alabama RBs compared to each other, Coffee, Ingram, Richardson, and Lacy, that Richardson clearly performed better than any of them. It was not my research but RedHats. I posted this is the Lacy thread. So I found that interesting. It gives me reason to believe (along with other things) that Richardson is better than those players. At least he performed better than those other RB, with the same team and supporting cast for the most part. So I think he is better than Ingram and also in a better situation. RedHats post- http://www.dailynorseman.com/2013/8/29/4664874/redhats-fantasy-football-guide-fixing-some-broken-adps

I also posted a nice breakdown on Richardson's struggles in the 1st 2 games with the Browns this season that was done by a Browns fan. It showed how Richardson was not picking the best holes created by the Browns offensive line. It also showed opportunities that Richardson had to gain more yards, if he just saw the openings. Here that is http://www.draftbrowns.com/2013/06/browns-film-room-trent-richardson/

The characteristic called vision, encompasses a lot of things. Actual vision to be able to see and process information, Instincts, experience. There are a lot of things that go into this. I think this is something Richardson is lacking. Part of that could be paying more attention to studying NFL defenses. How they will fill gaps. Richardson could over time learn about how defenses are reacting to the run plays he is having called for him and turn that knowledge into making better opportunities for himself.

I think Richardson has tremendous athletic ability. But it takes more than that to be an effective RB. In this way I think the dominance of the Alabama offensive line during the seasons Ingram, Richardson and Lacy played there made this too easy for them. They were often getting to the second level just by following the blocks. The NFL is much different. The defenses are so much better. So this vision is something these RB did not have to develop before entering the NFL. But they need it now to be more successful.

I am not making excuses for him. Richardson has not played up to expectations of him thus far. I am also not ready to write him off yet. As I think he can improve on his instincts, experience of NFL defenses, anticipation and vision.

As far as Beanie Wells goes, my buddy Mitch who is a Ohio state fan told me Wells was going to fail in the NFL. He had no reason to tell anything but the truth here. He is a Buckeye fan. If Wells were any good I am sure Mitch would have been a fan. Other things I read indicated he had a poor work ethic and was injury prone. Even as a rookie Wells was not on my board. Now some folks who didn't dig may have thought he was going to be a good player. But the information was available before he was even drafted that should have been enough to scare you away. If you did enough digging that is.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Look, the answer to all this is somewhere in the middle.

Richardson is not a bust or a bad player, but he clearly has something to prove. I think people really hurt their argument when they keep reiterating Richardson's yards per carry average. Yes, they've been historically mediocre. But football minds, minds much more knowledgeable than us, see some real promise in how Richardson's getting those yards. I am willing to withhold judgement until the end of this season. I think a key to Richardson making to the elite level could be his willingness to run angry. The guy is strong enough to be a bully.

One interesting comment made on one of last week's Audible podcasts was the concept that losing 10 pounds could help Richardson's speed.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Look, the answer to all this is somewhere in the middle.

Richardson is not a bust or a bad player, but he clearly has something to prove. I think people really hurt their argument when they keep reiterating Richardson's yards per carry average. Yes, they've been historically mediocre. But football minds, minds much more knowledgeable than us, see some real promise in how Richardson's getting those yards. I am willing to withhold judgement until the end of this season. I think a key to Richardson making to the elite level could be his willingness to run angry. The guy is strong enough to be a bully.

One interesting comment made on one of last week's Audible podcasts was the concept that losing 10 pounds could help Richardson's speed.

have any of these minds ever drafted a bust?

guess not

 

[PatsWillWin]

This is a really interesting debate.

 

[pizzatyme]

I hope the detractors stay up late this week so we can get play by play updates on TRich's suckitude.

 

[Tanner9919]

Beanie Wells was nowhere near the prospect Trent was and is a terrible comparison in pretty much every way.

The list of RBs that had excuses to looks like a bust 21 games into their career and actually ended up being busts is a LOT longer than the list of RBs that had excuses to look like a bust 21 games into their career and ended up being great fantasy players. A LOT longer.

How many of those guys were top 10 picks? Here is every RB drafted in the top 10 in the past 15 years:

2010 - 1.09 CJ Spiller

2008 - 1.04 Darren McFadden

2007 - 1.07 Adrian Peterson

2006 - 1.02 Reggie Bush

2005 - 1.02 Ronnie Brown

2005 - 1.04 Cedric Benson

2005 - 1.05 Cadillac Williams

2001 - 1.05 LaDainian Tomlinson

2000 - 1.05 Jamal Lewis

2000 - 1.07 Thomas Jones

1999 - 1.04 Edgerrin James

1999 - 1.05 Ricky Williams

1998 - 1.05 Curtis Enis

1998 - 1.09 Fred Taylor

The vast majority of those guys were very good or at least had individual seasons that were very good. In fact, Curtis Enis is the only player out of this 14 man list who never rushed for 1000+ yards at least once in his career. Even a lot of the relative flops like McFadden, Ronnie, and Cadillac had at least one strong season. And well over half these guys had very strong, borderline HOF type of careers.

It's not by accident that a RB gets picked in the top 10. To go that high, you have to be special. Richardson wasn't just a top 10 pick, but a STRONG top 5 pick in a STRONG draft. I won't bother going back and copying/pasting all of the glowing scouting reports, but there wasn't an evaluator on the planet who didn't think this guy was a premier talent. If you're willing to toss that all aside because he's been relatively poor in the first 20 games of his NFL career (virtually all of which have been played in less than optimal circumstances -- injuries, bad running teams, new playbook), so be it. I think that's overly reactive given his pedigree. At this point I just don't find the evidence so damning that you should be jumping ship immediately. A player with Trent's background deserves a longer leash because of all the objective data points in his favor. As guys like Lynch, Reggie, Spiller, and Crabtree have shown in recent seasons, there is typically a good reason why a draft prospect comes into the league with a top reputation. As the saying in soccer goes, form is temporary, but class is permanent. With that level of talent, it is only a matter of time.

As far as T-Rich in the NFL, I definitely would've liked to have seen more good games and more big plays by now. On the other hand, the idea that he's shown nothing has no basis in reality. He looked quite good last year before his injury and really flashed his potential in the Cincinnati game early in the season. I'm not seeing the sluggish plodder here. Could he be a bust when all is said and done? I guess it's possible, but I still find it unlikely that what we're seeing right now is the real Trent Richardson. In order to believe that, I'd essentially have to believe that he's the worst RB in the NFL because that's what it would take to be a lifetime 3.1 YPC rusher. He can't possibly be that bad, which leads me to think that what we're seeing now is probably a combination of many factors.

15 of his 20 games were for the Browns. I don't need to explain why that was a bad situation. He was also a rookie. Go look and see how Ricky Williams and LaDainian Tomlinson did as rookies on bad teams. Now Richardson is on the Colts. They have a much better QB than the Browns and a much better offense, but...they're not a good running team at the moment (one of the worst in the NFL last year with mostly the same team) and he's still being used in a limited capacity (much of his value IRL and in FF comes from his ability as a receiver, but we've hardly seen that facet of his game at all since he came to the Colts. Strictly a battering ram for the time being.) Oh, and if that wasn't enough, two of his first three games for the Colts came against the 49ers and the Seahawks. Not exactly dream opponents.

At this point I'm just rehashing the same arguments. Like every other player for whom the jury is still out, you're going to see different opinions based on where people stood in the first place and based on how fickle they are by nature. If you believed that Richardson was justifiably an elite RB prospect, it's likely that you can write off his struggles as the result of unfavorable circumstances. If you're more of a nervous owner and/or you weren't totally sold on Richardson in the first place, it's likely that you're going to look at the 20 games of 3 yards and a cloud of dust as definitive proof that he's a fraud.

These are the puzzles that FF owners have to solve. You can say William Green and David Terrell. I can say Ricky Williams and Michael Crabtree. You can say the odds are against a player becoming an elite NFL back if he's been so poor in his first 1+ season. I can say the odds are for any RB picked in the top 10 eventually becoming an impact player. We can go around in circles all week. I think I've made it clear where I stand. There might come a time to pull the plug, but I'm still holding.

Ryan Leaf was a STRONG top 10 pick as well, stronger top 5.

Tomlinson rushed for 1236 yards and 10TD his rookie season, not sure why you're bringing him into the conversation. Clinton Portis managed 1508 yards,15 td his rookie season, on a 9-7 team, and followed that up with 1597 his sophomore campaign.. Ricky rushed for 884,1000,1245,1853 his first 4 years..it's important to note that in each of his first 4 seasons, he significantly improved over the previous year's performance, including ypc which went from 3.5, 4.0, 4.0, 4.8..something that Richardson does not appear to have in him..different team, same result - a poor ypc average.but somehow Donald Brown is averaging

a ridiculous 8.3 ypc so far this year..so why hasn't Richardson done more with his carries on this high-flying offense?

the answer is simple: he's just not that good, that dog won't hunt..

it was a monumental mistake for the Colts to trade a first round pick for the guy in the first place.Cleveland fleeced Indy.there is no other way to look at it..so now you're stuck with a RB who is unbelieavly worth TWO first round picks ( Cleveland 2012, Indy 2014) who hasn't done anything significant as a pro to even make you think he was worth either pick, and probably never will..

 

[Statorama]

Can you imagine the hype he would have had if he had been traded to New Orleans? Ooofa

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Beanie Wells was nowhere near the prospect Trent was and is a terrible comparison in pretty much every way.

The list of RBs that had excuses to looks like a bust 21 games into their career and actually ended up being busts is a LOT longer than the list of RBs that had excuses to look like a bust 21 games into their career and ended up being great fantasy players. A LOT longer.

How many of those guys were top 10 picks? Here is every RB drafted in the top 10 in the past 15 years:

2010 - 1.09 CJ Spiller

2008 - 1.04 Darren McFadden

2007 - 1.07 Adrian Peterson

2006 - 1.02 Reggie Bush

2005 - 1.02 Ronnie Brown

2005 - 1.04 Cedric Benson

2005 - 1.05 Cadillac Williams

2001 - 1.05 LaDainian Tomlinson

2000 - 1.05 Jamal Lewis

2000 - 1.07 Thomas Jones

1999 - 1.04 Edgerrin James

1999 - 1.05 Ricky Williams

1998 - 1.05 Curtis Enis

1998 - 1.09 Fred Taylor

The vast majority of those guys were very good or at least had individual seasons that were very good. In fact, Curtis Enis is the only player out of this 14 man list who never rushed for 1000+ yards at least once in his career. Even a lot of the relative flops like McFadden, Ronnie, and Cadillac had at least one strong season. And well over half these guys had very strong, borderline HOF type of careers.

It's not by accident that a RB gets picked in the top 10. To go that high, you have to be special. Richardson wasn't just a top 10 pick, but a STRONG top 5 pick in a STRONG draft. I won't bother going back and copying/pasting all of the glowing scouting reports, but there wasn't an evaluator on the planet who didn't think this guy was a premier talent. If you're willing to toss that all aside because he's been relatively poor in the first 20 games of his NFL career (virtually all of which have been played in less than optimal circumstances -- injuries, bad running teams, new playbook), so be it. I think that's overly reactive given his pedigree. At this point I just don't find the evidence so damning that you should be jumping ship immediately. A player with Trent's background deserves a longer leash because of all the objective data points in his favor. As guys like Lynch, Reggie, Spiller, and Crabtree have shown in recent seasons, there is typically a good reason why a draft prospect comes into the league with a top reputation. As the saying in soccer goes, form is temporary, but class is permanent. With that level of talent, it is only a matter of time.

As far as T-Rich in the NFL, I definitely would've liked to have seen more good games and more big plays by now. On the other hand, the idea that he's shown nothing has no basis in reality. He looked quite good last year before his injury and really flashed his potential in the Cincinnati game early in the season. I'm not seeing the sluggish plodder here. Could he be a bust when all is said and done? I guess it's possible, but I still find it unlikely that what we're seeing right now is the real Trent Richardson. In order to believe that, I'd essentially have to believe that he's the worst RB in the NFL because that's what it would take to be a lifetime 3.1 YPC rusher. He can't possibly be that bad, which leads me to think that what we're seeing now is probably a combination of many factors.

15 of his 20 games were for the Browns. I don't need to explain why that was a bad situation. He was also a rookie. Go look and see how Ricky Williams and LaDainian Tomlinson did as rookies on bad teams. Now Richardson is on the Colts. They have a much better QB than the Browns and a much better offense, but...they're not a good running team at the moment (one of the worst in the NFL last year with mostly the same team) and he's still being used in a limited capacity (much of his value IRL and in FF comes from his ability as a receiver, but we've hardly seen that facet of his game at all since he came to the Colts. Strictly a battering ram for the time being.) Oh, and if that wasn't enough, two of his first three games for the Colts came against the 49ers and the Seahawks. Not exactly dream opponents.

At this point I'm just rehashing the same arguments. Like every other player for whom the jury is still out, you're going to see different opinions based on where people stood in the first place and based on how fickle they are by nature. If you believed that Richardson was justifiably an elite RB prospect, it's likely that you can write off his struggles as the result of unfavorable circumstances. If you're more of a nervous owner and/or you weren't totally sold on Richardson in the first place, it's likely that you're going to look at the 20 games of 3 yards and a cloud of dust as definitive proof that he's a fraud.

These are the puzzles that FF owners have to solve. You can say William Green and David Terrell. I can say Ricky Williams and Michael Crabtree. You can say the odds are against a player becoming an elite NFL back if he's been so poor in his first 1+ season. I can say the odds are for any RB picked in the top 10 eventually becoming an impact player. We can go around in circles all week. I think I've made it clear where I stand. There might come a time to pull the plug, but I'm still holding.

Taking the "drafted in the top-10" list back another 10 years you get:

Lawrence Phillips

Tim Biakabutuka

Ki-Jana Carter

Marshall Faulk

Garrison Hearst

Jerome Bettis

Tommy Vardell

Blair Thomas

Barry Sanders

Tim Worley

Sammie Smith

Alonzo Highsmith

Brent Fullwood

Not exactly bulletproof.

 

[Army Eye]

Tomlinson rushed for 1236 yards and 10TD his rookie season, not sure why you're bringing him into the conversation.

3.6 YPC that year. Same YPC that Richardson gets taken to task for

 

[Rove!]

Beanie Wells was nowhere near the prospect Trent was and is a terrible comparison in pretty much every way.

The list of RBs that had excuses to looks like a bust 21 games into their career and actually ended up being busts is a LOT longer than the list of RBs that had excuses to look like a bust 21 games into their career and ended up being great fantasy players. A LOT longer.

How many of those guys were top 10 picks? Here is every RB drafted in the top 10 in the past 15 years:

2010 - 1.09 CJ Spiller Good last year, jury out this taer

2008 - 1.04 Darren McFadden injured a lot

2007 - 1.07 Adrian Peterson HOF path

2006 - 1.02 Reggie Bush Took a few years to get going

2005 - 1.02 Ronnie Brown Sub par starter

2005 - 1.04 Cedric Benson mostly a bust

2005 - 1.05 Cadillac Williams mostly a bust

2001 - 1.05 LaDainian Tomlinson HOF

2000 - 1.05 Jamal Lewis great

2000 - 1.07 Thomas Jones Took several years to get going

1999 - 1.04 Edgerrin James HOF?

1999 - 1.05 Ricky Williams great

1998 - 1.05 Curtis Enis Bust

1998 - 1.09 Fred Taylor Great underrated back

 

[OnTheReg]

Traded him along with a pick next year for Forte.

 

[amnesiac]

Can you imagine the hype he would have had if he had been traded to New Orleans? Ooofa

very last team in the league that would've traded for him. they already have Ingram.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Look, the answer to all this is somewhere in the middle.

Richardson is not a bust or a bad player, but he clearly has something to prove. I think people really hurt their argument when they keep reiterating Richardson's yards per carry average. Yes, they've been historically mediocre. But football minds, minds much more knowledgeable than us, see some real promise in how Richardson's getting those yards. I am willing to withhold judgement until the end of this season. I think a key to Richardson making to the elite level could be his willingness to run angry. The guy is strong enough to be a bully.

One interesting comment made on one of last week's Audible podcasts was the concept that losing 10 pounds could help Richardson's speed.

have any of these minds ever drafted a bust?

guess not

Astrophysicists make errors. Are you willing to say you're smarter than an astrophysicist?

 

[cpd90]

I've got my first tangible opportunity to bench him this week. With Morris off of his bye, Amendola back from injury, and Blackmon off suspension, my RB2 and FLEX spots are tough decisions. I don't see how I could leave Morris on the bench for Trent.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I don't see how I could leave Morris on the bench for Trent.

I own Trent and totally agree with this.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Look, the answer to all this is somewhere in the middle.

Richardson is not a bust or a bad player, but he clearly has something to prove. I think people really hurt their argument when they keep reiterating Richardson's yards per carry average. Yes, they've been historically mediocre. But football minds, minds much more knowledgeable than us, see some real promise in how Richardson's getting those yards. I am willing to withhold judgement until the end of this season. I think a key to Richardson making to the elite level could be his willingness to run angry. The guy is strong enough to be a bully.

One interesting comment made on one of last week's Audible podcasts was the concept that losing 10 pounds could help Richardson's speed.

have any of these minds ever drafted a bust?

guess not

Astrophysicists make errors. Are you willing to say you're smarter than an astrophysicist?

if the astrophycist in question drafted trent richardson on his fantasy team, I think it's a strong possibility.