The Trent Richardson Thread (6 Viewers)

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

You do realize to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry he would have had to have 57 rushes on 3rd or 4th in short and averaged only 1 yard on each one of those rushing attempts, then subtract those rushes. I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much.

Again, all I'm saying the line is horrible and Richardson was used differently than Brown. People refer to their respective YPC stats for the season as some sort of "proof" that line is fine and it's all TRich's fault. I'm merely pointing out some data that shows that they were used in different situations. It's not about trying "to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry;" it's about showing that comparing his YPC to Brown's is an apple/oranges comparisson. If you want to compare apples to apples, imo, you need to look at the times when they were used in similar packages and similar situations.

" I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much."

You don't have to go out on a limb; I provided most of the data needed to calculate it if you wanted to.

 

[stbugs]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

You do realize to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry he would have had to have 57 rushes on 3rd or 4th in short and averaged only 1 yard on each one of those rushing attempts, then subtract those rushes. I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much.

Again, all I'm saying the line is horrible and Richardson was used differently than Brown. People refer to their respective YPC stats for the season as some sort of "proof" that line is fine and it's all TRich's fault. I'm merely pointing out some data that shows that they were used in different situations. It's not about trying "to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry;" it's about showing that comparing his YPC to Brown's is an apple/oranges comparisson. If you want to compare apples to apples, imo, you need to look at the times when they were used in similar packages and similar situations.

" I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much."

You don't have to go out on a limb; I provided most of the data needed to calculate it if you wanted to.

That is what I did above and even with removing all of the short yardage carries (which every lead back will have), his ypc were still 3.2, which is awful. I also showed that every other Colts RB averaged 5.0 ypc on more carries than he had. That is top of the NFL good and the fact that they combined to have more carries also discounts the "situation" argument. Without short yardage carries, he averaged 3.2 ypc or 1.8 ypc less, which is a gigantic difference behind the same OL with the same QB, etc. That is about as apples as apples as you can get. To put that ypc difference into perspective, TRich was as worse than the rest of the Colts RBs as Ray Rice was compared to Jamal Charles and let's be honest, Charles is far better than any of the other Colts RBs.

Sorry, but the data you provided didn't help his case IMHO, because removing the short yardage just showed how bad he was compared to the rest of the RBs in non-short yardage situations.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

While I'm sort of on your side that things can get better for Richardson, it looks like you did a lot of work to not really say all that much. The difference in carries in the above calculations is rather minimal and I don't think anyone has ever disputed that Richardson is a better short yardage back nor that he was used more in those situations.

I mean just watching the games, it woud be very hard to argue that Donald Brown didn't look far better than Trent - and it's just not realistic that all of it is solely due to situational usage.

Where you're really going to lose everyone is where you want to take out three (THREE!) Brown carries that went over 40 yards, as if Brown should be ashamed of breaking big runs. The Richardson dectractors are pointing to what has appeared to be his lack of big play ability - pointing out Brown's big play ability is doing more to hurt your argument than help it.

At this point, I'd still love to buy low on Trent if I could, but its just not the reality in any of my leagues. I liked what I saw at Alabama and even at times with Cleveland so I hope he breaks out of it next season.

 

[stbugs]

I appreciate the stats based posts. I understand the argument they are making for T. Rich. But it is not an argument I buy. His problem last year wasn't usage. He simply did not play well.

I do think there is a decent argument for him as a buy low but I think it is one that starts with admitting the obvious: he was bad in 2013 and just okay in 2012. From there, I do think there is hope that he can get better.

If I am the colts, I hope he gets fully healthy. I don't think he has ever fully recovered from the knee issues from the summer of 2012. I also tell him to stop with all the weight lifting. He needs to lose 10 pounds, even if it is all muscle that he loses. I think it is mainly a physical issue with Trent. He needs to re-find the burst that I believe he had back in 2010 and 2011.

Even if he doesn't turn it around to the extent that Marshawn Lynch has, I could at least see a Cedric Benson type career turnaround. Benson was a top 5 pick who was basically left for dead before turning it around and having 3 or 4 1,000 yard seasons in Cincy.

Agreed, yes, he can turn it around and I think that is where the buy low comes from since he was the #3 overall pick. That said, he was epically bad in 2013, even compared to RBs that most people would consider plug and play.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I really don't care what you think about the post. Add some value to the discussion, whether you agree or disagree. If you aren't adding value, why bother?Replying for the sake of boosting your post count, without writing anything worth reading, is overrated.

Right on, way to add more value to the discussion by not adding value to the discussion, telling someone else to add value to the discussion. I think he made it pretty clear. "meh" is probably more constructive that really commenting on the excuses given for why Richardson sucked. Sounded like his mom making things up on his behalf.

And nice to see I have a fan club, impressive.

Still waiting for some people to post what they feel would be a good "buy low" price. For me, 3rd rounder.

I'd be willing to give a mid second. I'd also be willing to trade a WR3 type or another player that has some question marks as well.

 

[stbugs]

By the way, I would absolutely buy low on him (I'm only in small keepers, not dynasty) with the last pick in drafts, but I would draft Brown higher than him as of right now. Maybe that changes in the off season if he shows a glimmer of hope, but barring a draft of a RB and assuming both are on the roster, Brown is clearly the one to own.

 

[Jrodicus]

Funny that you say my comparison is solely on YPC when you brought it up to shift Brown down to 3.9 ypc and obviously with short yardage trying to allude that TRich's would have been better. I keep with these nuggets:


1. How can you even think about taking away those 3 plays from Brown when TRich in 541 career touches has never had a single play within 10 yards of all 3 of Brown's plays? One would say that lack of explosive plays is a problem with TRich.

2. Even if you subtract those 3 great plays from Brown and subtract all of the short yardage above, Brown still has 3.9 ypc and TRich has 3.2 ypc. That's right, removing the best situations from Brown and worst from TRich and Brown clearly still outplayed TRich.

3. No response to my playoff comments and how the team clearly leaned on Brown and not TRich?

4. The OL sucks and improving that will help TRich. What would it then do for the rest of the RBs, who averaged 5.0 ypc on 15 more carries than TRich? Did you know that only 1 team in the league averaged better than the "other" Colts RBs? Only the Eagles had 5.0 ypc+. Sorry, but it seems like OL + TRich sucked and OL + other RBs was solid.

I agree with the meh comment, your analysis is reaching for everything to find reasons why TRich will improve. Can TRich improve back to a good RB? Sure, but the stuff you pointed to seems to have a lot more to do with TRich's horrendous 2013 than outside factors.

[SIZE=10.5pt]1. I guess I'm confused here. I thought we were talking about TRich while on the Colts this year and comparing him to Brown. I didn't realize we were talking about their entire careers. How has the rest of Brown's career looked? He's had 3 of his 5 seasons with < 4.0 YPC. Is his 5.3 YPC this year "normal" or an outlier? Perhaps not being used very often in short yardage situations this year, in combination with a few plays designed to get him in space, account for his career year for YPC? Nah, the Colts' O-line is really just THAT good and it's all TRich's fault.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I do agree that Brown is more explosive in open space. I don't know 40 times, but Brown definitely looks to have more straight-line speed. He just sucks at pass protection and is not good in short-yardage situations.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]2. Again, as I said earlier, "A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs." I only took out the longest 3 runs he had from those formations. He had a handful of 20-yard runs from the same packages/formations. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If one really wanted to do an apples to apples comparison, you'd need to look at them based situations and packages. TRich was used more like Pierre Thomas; Brown was used more like Sproles. Would you compare Sproles' YPC to Thomas' and say that Sproles is the better RB?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]3. Leaned on Brown how? Because he had more touches? In both games the Colts were trying to catch up. It's hard to play ball control, 3 yards and a cloud of dust football when you're behind. Did you by chance look at total snaps, or just the number of times they each touched the ball?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]In the NE game:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown - 34 offensive plays, 18 touches, touched the ball 53% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TRich - 25 offensive plays, 3 touches, touched the ball 12% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Why was TRich in the game so much if he wasn't getting the ball? BECUASE BROWN SUCKS IN PASS PROTECTION. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Just watch the highlights from the playoffs. How many times does TRich stay back in pass protection, and how many times does Brown release out of the backfield? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.colts.com/videos/videos/GameDay-Kansas-City-Chiefs-vs-Indianapolis-Colts-highlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895dhttp://www.colts.com/videos/videos/...ghlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895d[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlightshttp://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlights[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown having a high touches/plays percentage isn't anything new. I haven't complied the data, but I would guarantee that for the season, Brown touched the ball on a higher percentage of plays when he was in the game.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]4. Not sure where you got your stats from. I looked at ESPN, and the other Colts’ RBs didn’t average over 5.0 YPC combined. Did you just take the team total for rushing and subtract TRich’s numbers? If that’s what you did, then yeah, it’s over 5.0…but you’d also be including rushes from Luck, DHB, TY, Wayne, Da’Rick, and Hasselbeck. Those guys aren’t RBs. It’s also probably not fair to add in carries that happened in games before TRich was on the team, but that’s another story.[/SIZE]

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

You do realize to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry he would have had to have 57 rushes on 3rd or 4th in short and averaged only 1 yard on each one of those rushing attempts, then subtract those rushes. I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much.

Again, all I'm saying the line is horrible and Richardson was used differently than Brown. People refer to their respective YPC stats for the season as some sort of "proof" that line is fine and it's all TRich's fault. I'm merely pointing out some data that shows that they were used in different situations. It's not about trying "to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry;" it's about showing that comparing his YPC to Brown's is an apple/oranges comparisson. If you want to compare apples to apples, imo, you need to look at the times when they were used in similar packages and similar situations.

" I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much."

You don't have to go out on a limb; I provided most of the data needed to calculate it if you wanted to.

If that's all you were saying, people wouldn't be arguing with you as much. They would have just told you bad doggie on your application of statistics and left it at that. I'll remind you of what you actually said, since you forgot:

"I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich"

" I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook"

"Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously."

These statements are either not supported by your "analysis" at all, or are full of sunshine and rainbows hopefulness. I mean, if the OL gets better, Richardson will do better? Let me show you something:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBTpjkPiVyg

 

[stbugs]

Funny that you say my comparison is solely on YPC when you brought it up to shift Brown down to 3.9 ypc and obviously with short yardage trying to allude that TRich's would have been better. I keep with these nuggets:


1. How can you even think about taking away those 3 plays from Brown when TRich in 541 career touches has never had a single play within 10 yards of all 3 of Brown's plays? One would say that lack of explosive plays is a problem with TRich.

2. Even if you subtract those 3 great plays from Brown and subtract all of the short yardage above, Brown still has 3.9 ypc and TRich has 3.2 ypc. That's right, removing the best situations from Brown and worst from TRich and Brown clearly still outplayed TRich.

3. No response to my playoff comments and how the team clearly leaned on Brown and not TRich?

4. The OL sucks and improving that will help TRich. What would it then do for the rest of the RBs, who averaged 5.0 ypc on 15 more carries than TRich? Did you know that only 1 team in the league averaged better than the "other" Colts RBs? Only the Eagles had 5.0 ypc+. Sorry, but it seems like OL + TRich sucked and OL + other RBs was solid.

I agree with the meh comment, your analysis is reaching for everything to find reasons why TRich will improve. Can TRich improve back to a good RB? Sure, but the stuff you pointed to seems to have a lot more to do with TRich's horrendous 2013 than outside factors.

[SIZE=10.5pt]1. I guess I'm confused here. I thought we were talking about TRich while on the Colts this year and comparing him to Brown. I didn't realize we were talking about their entire careers. How has the rest of Brown's career looked? He's had 3 of his 5 seasons with < 4.0 YPC. Is his 5.3 YPC this year "normal" or an outlier? Perhaps not being used very often in short yardage situations this year, in combination with a few plays designed to get him in space, account for his career year for YPC? Nah, the Colts' O-line is really just THAT good and it's all TRich's fault.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I do agree that Brown is more explosive in open space. I don't know 40 times, but Brown definitely looks to have more straight-line speed. He just sucks at pass protection and is not good in short-yardage situations.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]2. Again, as I said earlier, "A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs." I only took out the longest 3 runs he had from those formations. He had a handful of 20-yard runs from the same packages/formations. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If one really wanted to do an apples to apples comparison, you'd need to look at them based situations and packages. TRich was used more like Pierre Thomas; Brown was used more like Sproles. Would you compare Sproles' YPC to Thomas' and say that Sproles is the better RB?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]3. Leaned on Brown how? Because he had more touches? In both games the Colts were trying to catch up. It's hard to play ball control, 3 yards and a cloud of dust football when you're behind. Did you by chance look at total snaps, or just the number of times they each touched the ball?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]In the NE game:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown - 34 offensive plays, 18 touches, touched the ball 53% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TRich - 25 offensive plays, 3 touches, touched the ball 12% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Why was TRich in the game so much if he wasn't getting the ball? BECUASE BROWN SUCKS IN PASS PROTECTION. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Just watch the highlights from the playoffs. How many times does TRich stay back in pass protection, and how many times does Brown release out of the backfield? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.colts.com/videos/videos/GameDay-Kansas-City-Chiefs-vs-Indianapolis-Colts-highlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895dhttp://www.colts.com/videos/videos/...ghlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895d[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlightshttp://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlights[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown having a high touches/plays percentage isn't anything new. I haven't complied the data, but I would guarantee that for the season, Brown touched the ball on a higher percentage of plays when he was in the game.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]4. Not sure where you got your stats from. I looked at ESPN, and the other Colts’ RBs didn’t average over 5.0 YPC combined. Did you just take the team total for rushing and subtract TRich’s numbers? If that’s what you did, then yeah, it’s over 5.0…but you’d also be including rushes from Luck, DHB, TY, Wayne, Da’Rick, and Hasselbeck. Those guys aren’t RBs. It’s also probably not fair to add in carries that happened in games before TRich was on the team, but that’s another story.[/SIZE]

1. Huh? I just said that you wanted to remove Brown's 3 best runs and I said that in TRich's career, he has a best run/reception of 32 yards, which is over 10 yards less than all 3 of those runs. I just stated that makes it even more unfair to remove those 3 because it sort of assumes that TRich would have had those had he been in those "situations" like Brown. I also like your cutoff at 4.0 since Brown has two seasons at 3.9 ypc, which is right around average. Brown isn't a world beater, but in his career, he has averaged 4.3 ypc.

It is also interesting that you talk about Brown sucking at pass protection, yet he had so many runs in shotgun/delayed handoffs. So, which is it, he sucks at pass protection or he is out there in pass protection more than TRich?

2. If Brown was Sproles, he wouldn't have less receptions than TRich. Also, he wouldn't have gotten all the work in the playoffs. Also, you keep saying passing downs, well 47 of 102 rushes for Brown were on 1st and 10. He also had another 4 first down carries and another 20 short 2nd and 3rd down runs. So, 66% of his runs were in so called running downs, hence he rand the ball. Richardson had 86 out of 153 1st down carries and another 35 in the same 2nd and 3rd down runs. So, 79% of his runs were in so called running downs. Yes, TRich ran in running situations more often, but they ran 46% and 56% respectively in 1st downs, so the splits aren't even close to Sproles. TRich's reception to rush ratio is 0.15, Brown's is 0.21 and Sproles is 0.57. Not even close to a Sproles situation.

3. Sure, its all pass protection. Maybe it is also the fact that TRich doesn't produce and Brown does. Also, doesn't that show how they lean on Brown? When he is in the game, he gets touches, when TRich is in, it was to spell Brown and get it occasionally. Also, love how you ignored the KC playoff game where Brown got 56 snaps and TRich got 10. That is a pretty big difference. Slice it any way you want, the Colts "leaned" on Brown when it counted and ignored TRich. 33 touches to 4 touches says that.

4. I never said the Colts RBs combined for over 5.0 ypc, I said they averaged 5.0 ypc and only Philly as a team did more than that at 5.1 ypc. I specifically ignored all FB, QB, WRs and TRich.

Brown: 102-537

Ballard: 13-63

Bradshaw: 41-186

Herron: 5-33

Choice: 11-44

So, 172 for 863, i.e. 5.017 ypc, which I guess technically is over 5.0 ypc. TRich had 157 carries, only 15 less carries, for a whopping 458 yards. So the rest of the Colts RBs had 15 more carries for 405 more yards. Lots of big runs we are going to have to remove.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

People have been saying "buy low" here. What does that mean? A 2nd round rookie pick? 3rd?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

I like all of this, it's interesting, but what it says to me is it explains why the Colts felt the need to trade for Richardson.

But Richardson also failed in the role that he was traded for.

And those long runs by Brown are a big deal, you just don't "take away" those carries, that's what you want from a primary back. Richardson showed a total inability to get those kinds of runs. He hardly showed any ability to get runs over even 10 yards.

And you want him to have the short yardage plays, not Ballard, because that's where TDs come from.

The situation is terrific, which is why people were so excited - it looked like he was in a bad situation in Cleveland moving to a great setup in Indy, which should be FF gold. The problerm was his talent and his complete failure to take advantage in even one game. If something has to change it's him.

 

[Jrodicus]

Funny that you say my comparison is solely on YPC when you brought it up to shift Brown down to 3.9 ypc and obviously with short yardage trying to allude that TRich's would have been better. I keep with these nuggets:


1. How can you even think about taking away those 3 plays from Brown when TRich in 541 career touches has never had a single play within 10 yards of all 3 of Brown's plays? One would say that lack of explosive plays is a problem with TRich.

2. Even if you subtract those 3 great plays from Brown and subtract all of the short yardage above, Brown still has 3.9 ypc and TRich has 3.2 ypc. That's right, removing the best situations from Brown and worst from TRich and Brown clearly still outplayed TRich.

3. No response to my playoff comments and how the team clearly leaned on Brown and not TRich?

4. The OL sucks and improving that will help TRich. What would it then do for the rest of the RBs, who averaged 5.0 ypc on 15 more carries than TRich? Did you know that only 1 team in the league averaged better than the "other" Colts RBs? Only the Eagles had 5.0 ypc+. Sorry, but it seems like OL + TRich sucked and OL + other RBs was solid.

I agree with the meh comment, your analysis is reaching for everything to find reasons why TRich will improve. Can TRich improve back to a good RB? Sure, but the stuff you pointed to seems to have a lot more to do with TRich's horrendous 2013 than outside factors.

[SIZE=10.5pt]1. I guess I'm confused here. I thought we were talking about TRich while on the Colts this year and comparing him to Brown. I didn't realize we were talking about their entire careers. How has the rest of Brown's career looked? He's had 3 of his 5 seasons with < 4.0 YPC. Is his 5.3 YPC this year "normal" or an outlier? Perhaps not being used very often in short yardage situations this year, in combination with a few plays designed to get him in space, account for his career year for YPC? Nah, the Colts' O-line is really just THAT good and it's all TRich's fault.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I do agree that Brown is more explosive in open space. I don't know 40 times, but Brown definitely looks to have more straight-line speed. He just sucks at pass protection and is not good in short-yardage situations.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]2. Again, as I said earlier, "A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs." I only took out the longest 3 runs he had from those formations. He had a handful of 20-yard runs from the same packages/formations. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If one really wanted to do an apples to apples comparison, you'd need to look at them based situations and packages. TRich was used more like Pierre Thomas; Brown was used more like Sproles. Would you compare Sproles' YPC to Thomas' and say that Sproles is the better RB?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]3. Leaned on Brown how? Because he had more touches? In both games the Colts were trying to catch up. It's hard to play ball control, 3 yards and a cloud of dust football when you're behind. Did you by chance look at total snaps, or just the number of times they each touched the ball?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]In the NE game:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown - 34 offensive plays, 18 touches, touched the ball 53% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TRich - 25 offensive plays, 3 touches, touched the ball 12% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Why was TRich in the game so much if he wasn't getting the ball? BECUASE BROWN SUCKS IN PASS PROTECTION. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Just watch the highlights from the playoffs. How many times does TRich stay back in pass protection, and how many times does Brown release out of the backfield? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.colts.com/videos/videos/GameDay-Kansas-City-Chiefs-vs-Indianapolis-Colts-highlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895dhttp://www.colts.com/videos/videos/...ghlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895d[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlightshttp://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlights[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown having a high touches/plays percentage isn't anything new. I haven't complied the data, but I would guarantee that for the season, Brown touched the ball on a higher percentage of plays when he was in the game.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]4. Not sure where you got your stats from. I looked at ESPN, and the other Colts’ RBs didn’t average over 5.0 YPC combined. Did you just take the team total for rushing and subtract TRich’s numbers? If that’s what you did, then yeah, it’s over 5.0…but you’d also be including rushes from Luck, DHB, TY, Wayne, Da’Rick, and Hasselbeck. Those guys aren’t RBs. It’s also probably not fair to add in carries that happened in games before TRich was on the team, but that’s another story.[/SIZE]

1. Huh? I just said that you wanted to remove Brown's 3 best runs and I said that in TRich's career, he has a best run/reception of 32 yards, which is over 10 yards less than all 3 of those runs. I just stated that makes it even more unfair to remove those 3 because it sort of assumes that TRich would have had those had he been in those "situations" like Brown. I also like your cutoff at 4.0 since Brown has two seasons at 3.9 ypc, which is right around average. Brown isn't a world beater, but in his career, he has averaged 4.3 ypc.

It is also interesting that you talk about Brown sucking at pass protection, yet he had so many runs in shotgun/delayed handoffs. So, which is it, he sucks at pass protection or he is out there in pass protection more than TRich?

2. If Brown was Sproles, he wouldn't have less receptions than TRich. Also, he wouldn't have gotten all the work in the playoffs. Also, you keep saying passing downs, well 47 of 102 rushes for Brown were on 1st and 10. He also had another 4 first down carries and another 20 short 2nd and 3rd down runs. So, 66% of his runs were in so called running downs, hence he rand the ball. Richardson had 86 out of 153 1st down carries and another 35 in the same 2nd and 3rd down runs. So, 79% of his runs were in so called running downs. Yes, TRich ran in running situations more often, but they ran 46% and 56% respectively in 1st downs, so the splits aren't even close to Sproles. TRich's reception to rush ratio is 0.15, Brown's is 0.21 and Sproles is 0.57. Not even close to a Sproles situation.

3. Sure, its all pass protection. Maybe it is also the fact that TRich doesn't produce and Brown does. Also, doesn't that show how they lean on Brown? When he is in the game, he gets touches, when TRich is in, it was to spell Brown and get it occasionally. Also, love how you ignored the KC playoff game where Brown got 56 snaps and TRich got 10. That is a pretty big difference. Slice it any way you want, the Colts "leaned" on Brown when it counted and ignored TRich. 33 touches to 4 touches says that.

4. I never said the Colts RBs combined for over 5.0 ypc, I said they averaged 5.0 ypc and only Philly as a team did more than that at 5.1 ypc. I specifically ignored all FB, QB, WRs and TRich.

Brown: 102-537

Ballard: 13-63

Bradshaw: 41-186

Herron: 5-33

Choice: 11-44

So, 172 for 863, i.e. 5.017 ypc, which I guess technically is over 5.0 ypc. TRich had 157 carries, only 15 less carries, for a whopping 458 yards. So the rest of the Colts RBs had 15 more carries for 405 more yards. Lots of big runs we are going to have to remove.

1. [SIZE=medium] I chose 4.0 because that seems to be a number that people use as a barometer. If I tried to say Brown was a good RB as evidence by his 4 seasons over 3.8 YPC, people would say, “Who cares about 3.9 YPC?”[/SIZE]
2. [SIZE=10.5pt]“If Brown was Sproles, he wouldn't have less receptions than TRich.” [/SIZE][SIZE=medium]FYI - Sproles had fewer receptions than Thomas last season.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]“Also, you keep saying passing downs…” I do? Where? I’ve said short yardage situations; I don't believe I've said "passing downs".[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]“He (Brown) also had another 4 first down carries and another 20 short 2nd and 3rd down runs.” What’s your definition of “short” yardage on 2nd and 3rd down? I defined it as 2 yards or less. In situations with 2 yards or less needed for a 1st down, I only counted 4 carries for Brown. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I can’t defend statements that I haven’t made.[/SIZE]

1. [SIZE=10.5pt]“Also, doesn't that show how they lean on Brown? When he is in the game, he gets touches, when TRich is in, it was to spell Brown and get it occasionally.”[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]So the Colts’ brought in Ballard last year, brought in Bradshaw last offseason, and traded for TRich because they wanted to “lean on Brown?” TRich was in the game to spell Brown? Then why did he have more touches and total snaps?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]As far as the KC game, TRich had a fumble in the 2nd quarter, so he got pulled. Brown got the majority of the work after that. And what did he do with it? He fumbled on a goal-line dive play…that Luck scooped up and took in for a score. Remember that play? http://www.colts.com/videos/videos/Wild-Card-Cant-Miss-Play--Luck-improve-able-TD/4ef6d5c1-0dfc-4b7c-b1f0-489670083f3dhttp://www.colts.com/videos/videos/...-able-TD/4ef6d5c1-0dfc-4b7c-b1f0-489670083f3d[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If the Colts were so happy to lean on Brown, when he almost cost them the game, then why did they go back to using TRich in pass protection and short yardage against NE?[/SIZE]

1. [SIZE=medium]Havili had 7 for 7…that’s the difference between the 5.02 and 4.86. Even though he’s technically listed as FB, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to include him in the average (Mike Tolbert is a FB too; I wouldn’t exclude him when looking at rushes by Carolina). Anyway, I apologize, as you are technically correct that Havili is not listed as a RB and removing him from the calculation does put the RBs over 5.0 YPC.[/SIZE]

 

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

You do realize to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry he would have had to have 57 rushes on 3rd or 4th in short and averaged only 1 yard on each one of those rushing attempts, then subtract those rushes. I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much.

Again, all I'm saying the line is horrible and Richardson was used differently than Brown. People refer to their respective YPC stats for the season as some sort of "proof" that line is fine and it's all TRich's fault. I'm merely pointing out some data that shows that they were used in different situations. It's not about trying "to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry;" it's about showing that comparing his YPC to Brown's is an apple/oranges comparisson. If you want to compare apples to apples, imo, you need to look at the times when they were used in similar packages and similar situations.

" I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much."

You don't have to go out on a limb; I provided most of the data needed to calculate it if you wanted to.

If that's all you were saying, people wouldn't be arguing with you as much. They would have just told you bad doggie on your application of statistics and left it at that. I'll remind you of what you actually said, since you forgot:

"I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich"

" I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook"

"Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously."

These statements are either not supported by your "analysis" at all, or are full of sunshine and rainbows hopefulness. I mean, if the OL gets better, Richardson will do better? Let me show you something:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBTpjkPiVyg

People say that the line must've been fine, as evidenced by Brown's YPC...all the while completely ignoring and refusing to believe that they were used differently. The stats were needed to try and prove the point that they were, in fact, used differently.

If people were willing to conceded this fact, the data wouldn't have been needed.

Please, master, don't beat me. Sorry for being a bad doggie. Please, teach me to merely take a 30,000 foot view of the season so I can fit in. Teach me, oh wise one.

""Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously." These statements are either not supported by your "analysis" at all, or are full of sunshine and rainbows hopefulness."

Well, yeah. That statement was in point #2. The stats I posted were in point #1. That's kind of the whole rationale for numbering the reasons...so that people don't get confused. I'll try to put a disclaimer out there for you next time when the topic changes so that you can try to keep up.

 

[KellysHeroes]

People have been saying "buy low" here. What does that mean? A 2nd round rookie pick? 3rd?

I would even roll a late 1st on him

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

You do realize to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry he would have had to have 57 rushes on 3rd or 4th in short and averaged only 1 yard on each one of those rushing attempts, then subtract those rushes. I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much.

Again, all I'm saying the line is horrible and Richardson was used differently than Brown. People refer to their respective YPC stats for the season as some sort of "proof" that line is fine and it's all TRich's fault. I'm merely pointing out some data that shows that they were used in different situations. It's not about trying "to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry;" it's about showing that comparing his YPC to Brown's is an apple/oranges comparisson. If you want to compare apples to apples, imo, you need to look at the times when they were used in similar packages and similar situations.

" I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much."

You don't have to go out on a limb; I provided most of the data needed to calculate it if you wanted to.

If that's all you were saying, people wouldn't be arguing with you as much. They would have just told you bad doggie on your application of statistics and left it at that. I'll remind you of what you actually said, since you forgot:

"I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich"

" I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook"

"Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously."

These statements are either not supported by your "analysis" at all, or are full of sunshine and rainbows hopefulness. I mean, if the OL gets better, Richardson will do better? Let me show you something:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBTpjkPiVyg

People say that the line must've been fine, as evidenced by Brown's YPC...all the while completely ignoring and refusing to believe that they were used differently. The stats were needed to try and prove the point that they were, in fact, used differently.

If people were willing to conceded this fact, the data wouldn't have been needed.

Please, master, don't beat me. Sorry for being a bad doggie. Please, teach me to merely take a 30,000 foot view of the season so I can fit in. Teach me, oh wise one.

""Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously." These statements are either not supported by your "analysis" at all, or are full of sunshine and rainbows hopefulness."

Well, yeah. That statement was in point #2. The stats I posted were in point #1. That's kind of the whole rationale for numbering the reasons...so that people don't get confused. I'll try to put a disclaimer out there for you next time when the topic changes so that you can try to keep up.

It's one thing to not understand someone else's points in a post, but it's a new level to not understand your own. Don't condescend people when you can't even connect the dots in your own post.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

People have been saying "buy low" here. What does that mean? A 2nd round rookie pick? 3rd?

I would even roll a late 1st on him

That's not low. That's not even modestly high. That's really ####### high.

 

[KellysHeroes]

People have been saying "buy low" here. What does that mean? A 2nd round rookie pick? 3rd?

I would even roll a late 1st on him

That's not low. That's not even modestly high. That's really ####### high.

this time last yr he was consider dynasty top 5, and even pick 1 in over half of those drafts. Almost everybody was onboard with him being the real deal, and its not like he suffered an injury that took his playmaking ability away. He had a good rookie yr and then had a bad 2nd yr, hes only 22 and on a good offense... I guess I'm willing to give a little more than the next guy in hopes he turns it on. The Colts are going to focus all off-season on making this thing work.

 

[cstu]

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

When I pulled up GTD, 5 yards or less:

TRich: 5 carries, 2 yards, 3 TD,

Bradshaw: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 TD, 1 first down

Brown: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 TD

All three performed well inside the 5 and I would say that at best he's tied with Bradshaw for effectiveness.

 

[Jrodicus]

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

When I pulled up GTD, 5 yards or less:

TRich: 5 carries, 2 yards, 3 TD,

Bradshaw: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 TD, 1 first down

Brown: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 TD

All three performed well inside the 5 and I would say that at best he's tied with Bradshaw for effectiveness.

I chose 3 yard line as I considered that to be short yardage. For sure, chosing a different definition of short yardage will yield different results.

 

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

You do realize to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry he would have had to have 57 rushes on 3rd or 4th in short and averaged only 1 yard on each one of those rushing attempts, then subtract those rushes. I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much.

Again, all I'm saying the line is horrible and Richardson was used differently than Brown. People refer to their respective YPC stats for the season as some sort of "proof" that line is fine and it's all TRich's fault. I'm merely pointing out some data that shows that they were used in different situations. It's not about trying "to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry;" it's about showing that comparing his YPC to Brown's is an apple/oranges comparisson. If you want to compare apples to apples, imo, you need to look at the times when they were used in similar packages and similar situations.

" I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much."

You don't have to go out on a limb; I provided most of the data needed to calculate it if you wanted to.

If that's all you were saying, people wouldn't be arguing with you as much. They would have just told you bad doggie on your application of statistics and left it at that. I'll remind you of what you actually said, since you forgot:

"I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich"

" I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook"

"Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously."

These statements are either not supported by your "analysis" at all, or are full of sunshine and rainbows hopefulness. I mean, if the OL gets better, Richardson will do better? Let me show you something:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBTpjkPiVyg

People say that the line must've been fine, as evidenced by Brown's YPC...all the while completely ignoring and refusing to believe that they were used differently. The stats were needed to try and prove the point that they were, in fact, used differently.

If people were willing to conceded this fact, the data wouldn't have been needed.

Please, master, don't beat me. Sorry for being a bad doggie. Please, teach me to merely take a 30,000 foot view of the season so I can fit in. Teach me, oh wise one.

""Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously." These statements are either not supported by your "analysis" at all, or are full of sunshine and rainbows hopefulness."

Well, yeah. That statement was in point #2. The stats I posted were in point #1. That's kind of the whole rationale for numbering the reasons...so that people don't get confused. I'll try to put a disclaimer out there for you next time when the topic changes so that you can try to keep up.

It's one thing to not understand someone else's points in a post, but it's a new level to not understand your own. Don't condescend people when you can't even connect the dots in your own post.

I suck at statistics and should've been told I'm a "bad doggie," but I'm the one being condescending? Interesting.

Your "shocked face" video really helped me. Let me return the favor and help you out with your understanding of the word "condescend:"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk

 

[Jrodicus]

People have been saying "buy low" here. What does that mean? A 2nd round rookie pick? 3rd?

I would even roll a late 1st on him

That's not low. That's not even modestly high. That's really ####### high.

this time last yr he was consider dynasty top 5, and even pick 1 in over half of those drafts. Almost everybody was onboard with him being the real deal, and its not like he suffered an injury that took his playmaking ability away. He had a good rookie yr and then had a bad 2nd yr, hes only 22 and on a good offense... I guess I'm willing to give a little more than the next guy in hopes he turns it on. The Colts are going to focus all off-season on making this thing work.

Agree completely. I'm not saying he will ever live up to the crazy hype from last season, but who are you going to take with a late 1st that you'd rather take a chance on?

 

[stbugs]

Funny that you say my comparison is solely on YPC when you brought it up to shift Brown down to 3.9 ypc and obviously with short yardage trying to allude that TRich's would have been better. I keep with these nuggets:


1. How can you even think about taking away those 3 plays from Brown when TRich in 541 career touches has never had a single play within 10 yards of all 3 of Brown's plays? One would say that lack of explosive plays is a problem with TRich.

2. Even if you subtract those 3 great plays from Brown and subtract all of the short yardage above, Brown still has 3.9 ypc and TRich has 3.2 ypc. That's right, removing the best situations from Brown and worst from TRich and Brown clearly still outplayed TRich.

3. No response to my playoff comments and how the team clearly leaned on Brown and not TRich?

4. The OL sucks and improving that will help TRich. What would it then do for the rest of the RBs, who averaged 5.0 ypc on 15 more carries than TRich? Did you know that only 1 team in the league averaged better than the "other" Colts RBs? Only the Eagles had 5.0 ypc+. Sorry, but it seems like OL + TRich sucked and OL + other RBs was solid.

I agree with the meh comment, your analysis is reaching for everything to find reasons why TRich will improve. Can TRich improve back to a good RB? Sure, but the stuff you pointed to seems to have a lot more to do with TRich's horrendous 2013 than outside factors.

[SIZE=10.5pt]1. I guess I'm confused here. I thought we were talking about TRich while on the Colts this year and comparing him to Brown. I didn't realize we were talking about their entire careers. How has the rest of Brown's career looked? He's had 3 of his 5 seasons with < 4.0 YPC. Is his 5.3 YPC this year "normal" or an outlier? Perhaps not being used very often in short yardage situations this year, in combination with a few plays designed to get him in space, account for his career year for YPC? Nah, the Colts' O-line is really just THAT good and it's all TRich's fault.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I do agree that Brown is more explosive in open space. I don't know 40 times, but Brown definitely looks to have more straight-line speed. He just sucks at pass protection and is not good in short-yardage situations.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]2. Again, as I said earlier, "A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs." I only took out the longest 3 runs he had from those formations. He had a handful of 20-yard runs from the same packages/formations. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If one really wanted to do an apples to apples comparison, you'd need to look at them based situations and packages. TRich was used more like Pierre Thomas; Brown was used more like Sproles. Would you compare Sproles' YPC to Thomas' and say that Sproles is the better RB?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]3. Leaned on Brown how? Because he had more touches? In both games the Colts were trying to catch up. It's hard to play ball control, 3 yards and a cloud of dust football when you're behind. Did you by chance look at total snaps, or just the number of times they each touched the ball?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]In the NE game:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown - 34 offensive plays, 18 touches, touched the ball 53% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TRich - 25 offensive plays, 3 touches, touched the ball 12% of the time he was in the game[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Why was TRich in the game so much if he wasn't getting the ball? BECUASE BROWN SUCKS IN PASS PROTECTION. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Just watch the highlights from the playoffs. How many times does TRich stay back in pass protection, and how many times does Brown release out of the backfield? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.colts.com/videos/videos/GameDay-Kansas-City-Chiefs-vs-Indianapolis-Colts-highlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895dhttp://www.colts.com/videos/videos/...ghlights/178728b7-0edf-4bd5-b68f-c857dc13895d[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlightshttp://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000312210/GameDay-Colts-vs-Patriots-highlights[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Brown having a high touches/plays percentage isn't anything new. I haven't complied the data, but I would guarantee that for the season, Brown touched the ball on a higher percentage of plays when he was in the game.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]4. Not sure where you got your stats from. I looked at ESPN, and the other Colts’ RBs didn’t average over 5.0 YPC combined. Did you just take the team total for rushing and subtract TRich’s numbers? If that’s what you did, then yeah, it’s over 5.0…but you’d also be including rushes from Luck, DHB, TY, Wayne, Da’Rick, and Hasselbeck. Those guys aren’t RBs. It’s also probably not fair to add in carries that happened in games before TRich was on the team, but that’s another story.[/SIZE]

1. Huh? I just said that you wanted to remove Brown's 3 best runs and I said that in TRich's career, he has a best run/reception of 32 yards, which is over 10 yards less than all 3 of those runs. I just stated that makes it even more unfair to remove those 3 because it sort of assumes that TRich would have had those had he been in those "situations" like Brown. I also like your cutoff at 4.0 since Brown has two seasons at 3.9 ypc, which is right around average. Brown isn't a world beater, but in his career, he has averaged 4.3 ypc.

It is also interesting that you talk about Brown sucking at pass protection, yet he had so many runs in shotgun/delayed handoffs. So, which is it, he sucks at pass protection or he is out there in pass protection more than TRich?

2. If Brown was Sproles, he wouldn't have less receptions than TRich. Also, he wouldn't have gotten all the work in the playoffs. Also, you keep saying passing downs, well 47 of 102 rushes for Brown were on 1st and 10. He also had another 4 first down carries and another 20 short 2nd and 3rd down runs. So, 66% of his runs were in so called running downs, hence he rand the ball. Richardson had 86 out of 153 1st down carries and another 35 in the same 2nd and 3rd down runs. So, 79% of his runs were in so called running downs. Yes, TRich ran in running situations more often, but they ran 46% and 56% respectively in 1st downs, so the splits aren't even close to Sproles. TRich's reception to rush ratio is 0.15, Brown's is 0.21 and Sproles is 0.57. Not even close to a Sproles situation.

3. Sure, its all pass protection. Maybe it is also the fact that TRich doesn't produce and Brown does. Also, doesn't that show how they lean on Brown? When he is in the game, he gets touches, when TRich is in, it was to spell Brown and get it occasionally. Also, love how you ignored the KC playoff game where Brown got 56 snaps and TRich got 10. That is a pretty big difference. Slice it any way you want, the Colts "leaned" on Brown when it counted and ignored TRich. 33 touches to 4 touches says that.

4. I never said the Colts RBs combined for over 5.0 ypc, I said they averaged 5.0 ypc and only Philly as a team did more than that at 5.1 ypc. I specifically ignored all FB, QB, WRs and TRich.

Brown: 102-537

Ballard: 13-63

Bradshaw: 41-186

Herron: 5-33

Choice: 11-44

So, 172 for 863, i.e. 5.017 ypc, which I guess technically is over 5.0 ypc. TRich had 157 carries, only 15 less carries, for a whopping 458 yards. So the rest of the Colts RBs had 15 more carries for 405 more yards. Lots of big runs we are going to have to remove.

1. [SIZE=medium] I chose 4.0 because that seems to be a number that people use as a barometer. If I tried to say Brown was a good RB as evidence by his 4 seasons over 3.8 YPC, people would say, “Who cares about 3.9 YPC?”[/SIZE]
2. [SIZE=10.5pt]“If Brown was Sproles, he wouldn't have less receptions than TRich.” [/SIZE][SIZE=medium]FYI - Sproles had fewer receptions than Thomas last season.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]“Also, you keep saying passing downs…” I do? Where? I’ve said short yardage situations; I don't believe I've said "passing downs".[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]“He (Brown) also had another 4 first down carries and another 20 short 2nd and 3rd down runs.” What’s your definition of “short” yardage on 2nd and 3rd down? I defined it as 2 yards or less. In situations with 2 yards or less needed for a 1st down, I only counted 4 carries for Brown. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I can’t defend statements that I haven’t made.[/SIZE]

1. [SIZE=10.5pt]“Also, doesn't that show how they lean on Brown? When he is in the game, he gets touches, when TRich is in, it was to spell Brown and get it occasionally.”[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]So the Colts’ brought in Ballard last year, brought in Bradshaw last offseason, and traded for TRich because they wanted to “lean on Brown?” TRich was in the game to spell Brown? Then why did he have more touches and total snaps?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]As far as the KC game, TRich had a fumble in the 2nd quarter, so he got pulled. Brown got the majority of the work after that. And what did he do with it? He fumbled on a goal-line dive play…that Luck scooped up and took in for a score. Remember that play? http://www.colts.com/videos/videos/Wild-Card-Cant-Miss-Play--Luck-improve-able-TD/4ef6d5c1-0dfc-4b7c-b1f0-489670083f3dhttp://www.colts.com/videos/videos/...-able-TD/4ef6d5c1-0dfc-4b7c-b1f0-489670083f3d[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If the Colts were so happy to lean on Brown, when he almost cost them the game, then why did they go back to using TRich in pass protection and short yardage against NE?[/SIZE]

1. [SIZE=medium]Havili had 7 for 7…that’s the difference between the 5.02 and 4.86. Even though he’s technically listed as FB, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to include him in the average (Mike Tolbert is a FB too; I wouldn’t exclude him when looking at rushes by Carolina). Anyway, I apologize, as you are technically correct that Havili is not listed as a RB and removing him from the calculation does put the RBs over 5.0 YPC.[/SIZE]

OK, hard to argue a moving target here. I specifically didn't include Havili because he is as much lining up at RB as Luck is or an end around to a WR. Tolbert isn't a FB like Havili is, your examples of Sproles and Tolbert are about as much of a stretch as your initial arguments. Tolbert lined up in the backfield alone a ton of times, that is what a RB does. Havili has 13 carries in 2 years, yet you compare him to Tolbert who had 1 less carry than Brown in 2013? In 2010, Tolbert almost had 200 carries. Tolbert isn't a blocking FB, Havili is. Tolbert is basically a big RB.

Passing downs is what you mentioned, i.e. that Brown lined up in shotguns and got delayed handoffs and that TRich got all the short yardage. Geez, it is going round and round. I showed you that Brown and TRich weren't all that different in terms of playing 1st downs or both in running situations (3rd and 1, 2nd and 5, i.e. not obvious passing downs). I proved that Brown is far more utilized like TRich than Sproles and then you mention Thomas had more receptions? Who cares, that is the Saints. You are trying to say TRich vs. Brown is not apples to apples and I think you are wrong and that it is more like Macintosh vs. Granny Smith, not oranges like Sproles. In that case, TRich was terrible next to Brown.

Who cares about Ballard and Bradshaw compared to Brown? I never stated Brown was a stud, only that he (and the others) way outperformed TRich and when the playoffs came, he was leaned on or do you think they leaned on TRich with 4 touches in 2 games?

Man, just quit while you are behind. Try as you may to blame other things and mention things that could improve TRich next year, the Colts running game/OL was very solid for 190 carries and atrocious in 161 carries. I'll let you look up the short yardage splits and anything else you can think of to figure out who's who.

 

[Jrodicus]

OK, hard to argue a moving target here. I specifically didn't include Havili because he is as much lining up at RB as Luck is or an end around to a WR. Tolbert isn't a FB like Havili is, your examples of Sproles and Tolbert are about as much of a stretch as your initial arguments. Tolbert lined up in the backfield alone a ton of times, that is what a RB does. Havili has 13 carries in 2 years, yet you compare him to Tolbert who had 1 less carry than Brown in 2013? In 2010, Tolbert almost had 200 carries. Tolbert isn't a blocking FB, Havili is. Tolbert is basically a big RB.

Passing downs is what you mentioned, i.e. that Brown lined up in shotguns and got delayed handoffs and that TRich got all the short yardage. Geez, it is going round and round. I showed you that Brown and TRich weren't all that different in terms of playing 1st downs or both in running situations (3rd and 1, 2nd and 5, i.e. not obvious passing downs). I proved that Brown is far more utilized like TRich than Sproles and then you mention Thomas had more receptions? Who cares, that is the Saints. You are trying to say TRich vs. Brown is not apples to apples and I think you are wrong and that it is more like Macintosh vs. Granny Smith, not oranges like Sproles. In that case, TRich was terrible next to Brown.

Who cares about Ballard and Bradshaw compared to Brown? I never stated Brown was a stud, only that he (and the others) way outperformed TRich and when the playoffs came, he was leaned on or do you think they leaned on TRich with 4 touches in 2 games?

Man, just quit while you are behind. Try as you may to blame other things and mention things that could improve TRich next year, the Colts running game/OL was very solid for 190 carries and atrocious in 161 carries. I'll let you look up the short yardage splits and anything else you can think of to figure out who's who.

I wasn't comparing Brown to Sproles or TRich to Thomas. I'm saying that comparing to Brown to TRich is like comparing Sproles to Thomas. Most football fans recognize that Sproles is used differently than Thomas. Likewise, must objective football fans would recognize that for most of the season, TRich and Brown were used differently.

Most of Havili's runs came when he was lined up as a RB, not lined up as a FB. You don't want to count Havili because he wasn't used much (only 7 carries), but you include Dan Herron, who was used even less (5 carries)?

I really don't think you proved whatever it is you think you did. My point was that more of TRich's carries were in short yardage situations (17% vs. 7%) and that he was more effective in those instances. Everything else - obvious passing downs, 1st and 10, etc., is not in the scope of the data that I posted. If you want to build your case by showing run formations, down, and yardage to go, you are welcome to do so. I'm not going to complie the data to try and prove your point for you.

Colts' want some sort of RBBC.

They have plays that are meant to be used in short yardage situations. They have plays that require the RB to pass protect. They have plays that are meant to get the RB out in open space.

Brown is not good at short yardage situations.

Brown is not good at pass protection.

Brown actually is good at plays that are designed to get the RB in space.

If you are going to have a RBBC, then someone has to cover the short yardage and pass protection roles. Brown is bad at them, so that became much of TRich's role.

As a result, TRich had fewer opportunities to run plays that were designed to get him out in space.

With Ballard back, I think he can help fill the short yardage and pass protection roles.

I think that will free up TRich to be used in more often in plays that are designed to get the RB out in space.

The stats I posted confirm that TRich was used differently (17% of his carries came in short yardage situations, vs. 7% for Brown). Beyond that, and that Brown is worse in pass protection, I don't think I've made any other claims. I've even conceded that Brown does look faster in the open field (although I don't think TRich had as many opportunities and average more yards/catch).

Those were my original points. Everything that I have discussed beyond that is me trying to burn straw men.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I wasn't comparing Brown to Sproles or TRich to Thomas. I'm saying that comparing to Brown to TRich is like comparing Sproles to Thomas. Most football fans recognize that Sproles is used differently than Thomas. Likewise, must objective football fans would recognize that for most of the season, TRich and Brown were used differently.

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usgae. Donald Brown was mostly used as a traditional RB, Darren Sproles is not.

You can try and manipulate the stats as much as you want, as you've been doing the last two-three pages, but anyone that watched more than one Colts game last season that tries to argue that Trent Richardson looked better than Donald Brown last season or that Brown thrived while Richardson struggled due solely to the way that they were used is being disingenuous.

Once again I can surely see Richardson improving next season after a full offseason with the team - but lets not sugar-coat just how truly awful he was last season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Colts' want some sort of RBBC.

Do you really beleive this to be the case? You think the traded a first round pick for a RBBC back? Obviously they will use more than one back over the course of a game and the season, but if Richardson gave them a reason to get 15 + carries a game, he would have gotten them.

 

[Jrodicus]

I wasn't comparing Brown to Sproles or TRich to Thomas. I'm saying that comparing to Brown to TRich is like comparing Sproles to Thomas. Most football fans recognize that Sproles is used differently than Thomas. Likewise, must objective football fans would recognize that for most of the season, TRich and Brown were used differently.

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usgae. Donald Brown was mostly used as a traditional RB, Darren Sproles is not.

You can try and manipulate the stats as much as you want, as you've been doing the last two-three pages, but anyone that watched more than one Colts game last season that tries to argue that Trent Richardson looked better than Donald Brown last season or that Brown thrived while Richardson struggled due solely to the way that they were used is being disingenuous.

Once again I can surely see Richardson improving next season after a full offseason with the team - but lets not sugar-coat just how truly awful he was last season.

Where did I say that at again? I never said that TRich looked great, just that he and Brown were used differently. If I claimed that TRich looked better than Brown, please, show me where. Otherwise, I'd appreciate you not putting words in my mouth or suggesting that I made claims that I didn't.

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Within 10 posts, Dr Octopus is going to get Jrodicus to admit that when the Colts traded for Richardson, they intentionally tried to get worse as a football team.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I wasn't comparing Brown to Sproles or TRich to Thomas. I'm saying that comparing to Brown to TRich is like comparing Sproles to Thomas. Most football fans recognize that Sproles is used differently than Thomas. Likewise, must objective football fans would recognize that for most of the season, TRich and Brown were used differently.

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usgae. Donald Brown was mostly used as a traditional RB, Darren Sproles is not.

You can try and manipulate the stats as much as you want, as you've been doing the last two-three pages, but anyone that watched more than one Colts game last season that tries to argue that Trent Richardson looked better than Donald Brown last season or that Brown thrived while Richardson struggled due solely to the way that they were used is being disingenuous.

Once again I can surely see Richardson improving next season after a full offseason with the team - but lets not sugar-coat just how truly awful he was last season.

Where did I say that at again? I never said that TRich looked great, just that he and Brown were used differently. If I claimed that TRich looked better than Brown, please, show me where. Otherwise, I'd appreciate you not putting words in my mouth or suggesting that I made claims that I didn't.

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Well when one tries to build up one guy (Richardson) while discrediting another (Brown) through stat manipulations, small sample sizes and artificial cut-off points, frankly it would seem like your agenda was to show why Richardson and Brown weren't as "night and day" as those that watched them play would think.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Yeah you said comparing Richardson and Brown is like comparing Thomas and Sproles which is why I said:

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usage

 

[Jrodicus]

Colts' want some sort of RBBC.

Do you really beleive this to be the case? You think the traded a first round pick for a RBBC back? Obviously they will use more than one back over the course of a game and the season, but if Richardson gave them a reason to get 15 + carries a game, he would have gotten them.

Depends. What is your threshold for RBBC? What % of the team's carries does a RB need to receive for you to not consider it a RBBC?

Pep Hamilton said going into the season that it was going to be a 50/50 RBBC with Ballard and Bradshaw. He said in November that it would continue to be a RBBC with TRich and Brown.

I don't really have to "think" that they traded a 1st for a RBBC back; I only have to read interviews with their OC.

(BTW, TRich did have more than 15 carries/game right after they acquired him. They had more faith in a guy they just acquired and didn't know the playbook than they did with a guy who was already on the team.)

 

[Jrodicus]

Within 10 posts, Dr Octopus is going to get Jrodicus to admit that when the Colts traded for Richardson, they intentionally tried to get worse as a football team.

People laugh about Grigson saying "This team doesn't win 12 games this year without Trent."

I agree that there were times he looked awful. However, he also did a good job of converting in short-yardage situations and protecting Luck. There were a few key plays in some of the close games where those traits come in very handy and the Colts may not have won those games if Brown was in the game.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

(BTW, TRich did have more than 15 carries/game right after they acquired him. They had more faith in a guy they just acquired and didn't know the playbook than they did with a guy who was already on the team.)

Wouldn't that prove my point? Wouldn't that show that they didn't want Richardson to be a RBBC back and wanted him to be a feature back.

I wonder what could have happened to have changed that thinking.

Maybe Donald Brown outplayed Richardson so badly that Brown got 28 carries to Richardson's 4 carries two playoff games?

 

[Jrodicus]

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Yeah you said comparing Richardson and Brown is like comparing Thomas and Sproles which is why I said:

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usage

So 17% vs. 7% of carries in short-yardage situations is not significant? 1/6 of Trent's carries were short yardage compared to 1/14 for Brown?

I contend that that is worth noting.

 

[ghostguy123]

Within 10 posts, Dr Octopus is going to get Jrodicus to admit that when the Colts traded for Richardson, they intentionally tried to get worse as a football team.

People laugh about Grigson saying "This team doesn't win 12 games this year without Trent."

I agree that there were times he looked awful. However, he also did a good job of converting in short-yardage situations and protecting Luck. There were a few key plays in some of the close games where those traits come in very handy and the Colts may not have won those games if Brown was in the game.

Right, they would have won 13.

Ever heard of coach speak? You want to the coach to just tell the cameras he sucks?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Yeah you said comparing Richardson and Brown is like comparing Thomas and Sproles which is why I said:

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usage

So 17% vs. 7% of carries in short-yardage situations is not significant? 1/6 of Trent's carries were short yardage compared to 1/14 for Brown?

I contend that that is worth noting.

I don't think it is, even under your definition of what constitutes short yardage carries. People have already pointed out that you have drawn some arbitrary cut-off points to make your case - most notably this post exchange where you chose carries from the 3 yard line and someone posted:

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

When I pulled up GTD, 5 yards or less:

TRich: 5 carries, 2 yards, 3 TD,

Bradshaw: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 TD, 1 first down

Brown: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 TD

All three performed well inside the 5 and I would say that at best he's tied with Bradshaw for effectiveness.

 

[Jrodicus]

(BTW, TRich did have more than 15 carries/game right after they acquired him. They had more faith in a guy they just acquired and didn't know the playbook than they did with a guy who was already on the team.)

Wouldn't that prove my point? Wouldn't that show that they didn't want Richardson to be a RBBC back and wanted him to be a feature back.

I wonder what could have happened to have changed that thinking.

Maybe Donald Brown outplayed Richardson so badly that Brown got 28 carries to Richardson's 4 carries two playoff games?

Pep said preseason he wanted a RBBC. He said later in the year he still wanted a RBBC.

IMO, the only reason why TRich got so many carries was because Bradshaw got hurt. If Bradshaw stays healthy, I think it's a 60/40 split with him and TRich. Against the 49ers, Bradshaw had 19 carries to TRich's 13 (Brown had 3).

I think TRich got more carries not because that was the plan when they traded for him, but because Bradshaw got hurt and they had little-to-no faith in Brown.

As noted earlier, TRich had that fumble in 2nd quarter against KC, and he didn't get any chances after that. And what did Brown do with his opportunity as the short-yardage back? He fumbled inside the 5-yard line, almost costing his team the game.

 

[Jrodicus]

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Yeah you said comparing Richardson and Brown is like comparing Thomas and Sproles which is why I said:

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usage

So 17% vs. 7% of carries in short-yardage situations is not significant? 1/6 of Trent's carries were short yardage compared to 1/14 for Brown?

I contend that that is worth noting.

I don't think it is, even under your definition of what constitutes short yardage carries. People have already pointed out that you have drawn some arbitrary cut-off points to make your case - most notably this post exchange where you chose carries from the 3 yard line and someone posted:

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

When I pulled up GTD, 5 yards or less:

TRich: 5 carries, 2 yards, 3 TD,

Bradshaw: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 TD, 1 first down

Brown: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 TD

All three performed well inside the 5 and I would say that at best he's tied with Bradshaw for effectiveness.

What is your definition of short-yardage? To me, 5 yards is not a "short yardage" play. We can look at efficiency inside the 5 yard line, but I think that is different than short yardage plays. No data to support this, but I'm guessing on 3rd and goal from the 5, more teams are likely to pass than run.

Here's the thing; I created my own definition of what I thought constitutes short-yardage, then I looked at the data. I did NOT, as you are suggesting, look at the data and select and then select an arbitrary cut-off.

You're welcome to create your own definitions then go look at the data. But if you are going to try and convince me that anything less than 5 yards is "short-yardage," feel free to go sell crazy somewhere else.

 

[Jrodicus]

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Yeah you said comparing Richardson and Brown is like comparing Thomas and Sproles which is why I said:

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usage

So 17% vs. 7% of carries in short-yardage situations is not significant? 1/6 of Trent's carries were short yardage compared to 1/14 for Brown?

I contend that that is worth noting.

I don't think it is, even under your definition of what constitutes short yardage carries. People have already pointed out that you have drawn some arbitrary cut-off points to make your case - most notably this post exchange where you chose carries from the 3 yard line and someone posted:

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

When I pulled up GTD, 5 yards or less:

TRich: 5 carries, 2 yards, 3 TD,

Bradshaw: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 TD, 1 first down

Brown: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 TD

All three performed well inside the 5 and I would say that at best he's tied with Bradshaw for effectiveness.

Feel free to look at post #2251 where I already addressed this. Any other dead horses you'd like to beat?

 

[ghostguy123]

Pep said preseason he wanted a RBBC. He said later in the year he still wanted a RBBC.

He wanted a RBBC because he was being nice in saying that he didn't have a legit RB on the team....................then this happened. They traded a FIRST ROUNDER for Richardson. He proceeded to be absolutely horrific, and after his horrific play, Pep said again he wanted a RBBC. Not because he actually wanted a RBBC, but because what else is he going to say?

I think you forget that whole middle part to the story which proves, yes PROVES, he really didn't want a RBBC, he wanted a good RB who could get most of the work and made a trade thinking they got that. They were wrong.

 

[ghostguy123]

What is your definition of short-yardage? To me, 5 yards is not a "short yardage" play. We can look at efficiency inside the 5 yard line, but I think that is different than short yardage plays. No data to support this, but I'm guessing on 3rd and goal from the 5, more teams are likely to pass than run.

Here's the thing; I created my own definition of what I thought constitutes short-yardage, then I looked at the data. I did NOT, as you are suggesting, look at the data and select and then select an arbitrary cut-off.

You're welcome to create your own definitions then go look at the data. But if you are going to try and convince me that anything less than 5 yards is "short-yardage," feel free to go sell crazy somewhere else.

Does it matter? Take any definition of anything in football, and Richardson was putrid at it. he was so bad you can't even manipulate any stats to make any part of the year look good.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Yeah you said comparing Richardson and Brown is like comparing Thomas and Sproles which is why I said:

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usage

So 17% vs. 7% of carries in short-yardage situations is not significant? 1/6 of Trent's carries were short yardage compared to 1/14 for Brown?

I contend that that is worth noting.

I don't think it is, even under your definition of what constitutes short yardage carries. People have already pointed out that you have drawn some arbitrary cut-off points to make your case - most notably this post exchange where you chose carries from the 3 yard line and someone posted:

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

When I pulled up GTD, 5 yards or less:

TRich: 5 carries, 2 yards, 3 TD,

Bradshaw: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 TD, 1 first down

Brown: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 TD

All three performed well inside the 5 and I would say that at best he's tied with Bradshaw for effectiveness.

Feel free to look at post #2251 where I already addressed this. Any other dead horses you'd like to beat?

That's a lesson people learn early on. If you want your statistics to have meaning, you don't use arbitrary values to sort them.

 

[Jrodicus]

Pep said preseason he wanted a RBBC. He said later in the year he still wanted a RBBC.

He wanted a RBBC because he was being nice in saying that he didn't have a legit RB on the team....................then this happened. They traded a FIRST ROUNDER for Richardson. He proceeded to be absolutely horrific, and after his horrific play, Pep said again he wanted a RBBC. Not because he actually wanted a RBBC, but because what else is he going to say?

I think you forget that whole middle part to the story which proves, yes PROVES, he really didn't want a RBBC, he wanted a good RB who could get most of the work and made a trade thinking they got that. They were wrong.

Week 1 they have a RBBC with Ballard and Bradshaw (2/3 - 1/3 split). Ballard gets hurt.

Week 2 they have a RBBC with Bradshaw and Brown (2/3 - 1/3 split). Brown misses a block in the 1st quarter that causes Luck to get strip-sacked. He misses another block in the 4th that causes Luck to get sacked.

Colts trade for TRich.

Week 3 they have a RBBC with Bradshaw TRich ( 54/37 - Brown got 3 carries). Bradshaw gets hurt.

If the goal was to have TRich be the lead back by himself, why was it RBBC with Bradshaw?

I guess I'm not really sure how you see this "PROVES" he didn't want a RBBC when everything they did to this point would suggest that they DID want a RBBC.

TRich got the bulk of the carries the next few weeks; IMO, that has more to do with their distrust of Brown than it suggest that they didn't want a RBBC. TRich was a liability in some situations, no doubt about it, so they were forced to go back to a RBBC with Brown.

Again, if Bradshaw doesn't get hurt, I think he and TRich are in a RBBC for the rest of the season.

 

[Jrodicus]

Again, not saying Brown = Sproles. Another claim that I didn't make.

Yeah you said comparing Richardson and Brown is like comparing Thomas and Sproles which is why I said:

Come on. Brown and Richardson were not used as differently as you are trying to make it seem. It is in no way comparable to Sproles' v. Thomas' usage

So 17% vs. 7% of carries in short-yardage situations is not significant? 1/6 of Trent's carries were short yardage compared to 1/14 for Brown?

I contend that that is worth noting.

I don't think it is, even under your definition of what constitutes short yardage carries. People have already pointed out that you have drawn some arbitrary cut-off points to make your case - most notably this post exchange where you chose carries from the 3 yard line and someone posted:

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

When I pulled up GTD, 5 yards or less:

TRich: 5 carries, 2 yards, 3 TD,

Bradshaw: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 TD, 1 first down

Brown: 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 TD

All three performed well inside the 5 and I would say that at best he's tied with Bradshaw for effectiveness.

Feel free to look at post #2251 where I already addressed this. Any other dead horses you'd like to beat?

That's a lesson people learn early on. If you want your statistics to have meaning, you don't use arbitrary values to sort them.

If carries inside the 3 yard line or plays when 2 yards or less are needed for a 1st down are "arbitrary" definitions of "short yardage situations," what definition, then, shall I use?

Picking the 5 yard line is just as arbitrary as picking the 3 yard line. I thought my definitions woked fine for short-yardage. If someone can point me to the approved, authoritative source for the definition of "short-yardage," I would be happy to use that criteria.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Pep said preseason he wanted a RBBC. He said later in the year he still wanted a RBBC.

He wanted a RBBC because he was being nice in saying that he didn't have a legit RB on the team....................then this happened. They traded a FIRST ROUNDER for Richardson. He proceeded to be absolutely horrific, and after his horrific play, Pep said again he wanted a RBBC. Not because he actually wanted a RBBC, but because what else is he going to say?

I think you forget that whole middle part to the story which proves, yes PROVES, he really didn't want a RBBC, he wanted a good RB who could get most of the work and made a trade thinking they got that. They were wrong.

Week 1 they have a RBBC with Ballard and Bradshaw (2/3 - 1/3 split). Ballard gets hurt.

Week 2 they have a RBBC with Bradshaw and Brown (2/3 - 1/3 split). Brown misses a block in the 1st quarter that causes Luck to get strip-sacked. He misses another block in the 4th that causes Luck to get sacked.

Colts trade for TRich.

Week 3 they have a RBBC with Bradshaw TRich ( 54/37 - Brown got 3 carries). Bradshaw gets hurt.

If the goal was to have TRich be the lead back by himself, why was it RBBC with Bradshaw?

I guess I'm not really sure how you see this "PROVES" he didn't want a RBBC when everything they did to this point would suggest that they DID want a RBBC.

TRich got the bulk of the carries the next few weeks; IMO, that has more to do with their distrust of Brown than it suggest that they didn't want a RBBC. TRich was a liability in some situations, no doubt about it, so they were forced to go back to a RBBC with Brown.

Again, if Bradshaw doesn't get hurt, I think he and TRich are in a RBBC for the rest of the season.

Are you seriously suggesting that the Colts traded their 1st round pick for Richardson intending to have him play 2nd fiddle to Ahmad Bradshaw?

Look, Richardson SUCKED last year. He was god-awful. It doesn't mean he'll be that bad again in 2014 and beyond, but all these attempts at sugar-coating 2013 are foolish. Trent was BRUTAL. He was bad enough that he likely wouldn't have a job right now if he were just some random mid-rounder or FA. He was absolutely that bad.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

That's a lesson people learn early on. If you want your statistics to have meaning, you don't use arbitrary values to sort them.

Feel free to look at post #2251 where I already addressed this. Any other dead horses you'd like to beat?
If carries inside the 3 yard line or plays when 2 yards or less are needed for a 1st down are "arbitrary" definitions of "short yardage situations," what definition, then, shall I use?

Picking the 5 yard line is just as arbitrary as picking the 3 yard line. I thought my definitions woked fine for short-yardage. If someone can point me to the approved, authoritative source for the definition of "short-yardage," I would be happy to use that criteria.

I am unaware of a universal source, because they can't exist. The Colts are unique to all other teams (like all teams are unique to other teams). So in this particular situation you'd need to define what short yardage means based on the Colts RBs production in particular situations. Since you want to compare TR to DB, what you should have done is an array of short yardage definitions. From the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. If you see that these values are wildly different, then how can you in good conscience use a particular definition if you cannot show what short yardage means? Or why you chose your particular definition? Or the significance of your definition? You didn't do this. You just picked one and rolled with it. I hope you didn't shop for stats that fit your conclusion, which is a sin if your goal is to find truth and not merely engage in statistic-rhetoric. If perhaps many of the values tell the same story, then you are probably OK, since it appears that the outcomes of these situations are similar. But that didn't happen.

 

[Jrodicus]

That's a lesson people learn early on. If you want your statistics to have meaning, you don't use arbitrary values to sort them.

Feel free to look at post #2251 where I already addressed this. Any other dead horses you'd like to beat?
If carries inside the 3 yard line or plays when 2 yards or less are needed for a 1st down are "arbitrary" definitions of "short yardage situations," what definition, then, shall I use?

Picking the 5 yard line is just as arbitrary as picking the 3 yard line. I thought my definitions woked fine for short-yardage. If someone can point me to the approved, authoritative source for the definition of "short-yardage," I would be happy to use that criteria.

I am unaware of a universal source, because they can't exist. The Colts are unique to all other teams (like all teams are unique to other teams). So in this particular situation you'd need to define what short yardage means based on the Colts RBs production in particular situations. Since you want to compare TR to DB, what you should have done is an array of short yardage definitions. From the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. If you see that these values are wildly different, then how can you in good conscience use a particular definition if you cannot show what short yardage means? Or why you chose your particular definition? Or the significance of your definition? You didn't do this. You just picked one and rolled with it. I hope you didn't shop for stats that fit your conclusion, which is a sin if your goal is to find truth and not merely engage in statistic-rhetoric. If perhaps many of the values tell the same story, then you are probably OK, since it appears that the outcomes of these situations are similar. But that didn't happen.

What, you want me to make a histogram and calculate 3 standard deviations? C'mon...

I don't understand a scenario where suggesting 5 yards and less should be considered short yardage.

 

[ghostguy123]

Are you asking why Richardson didnt get 80% of the carries like 5 days after being traded?

Jrod, you might need to VERY briefly sum up exactly what you are trying to say, because they way you are trying to present it is just...................

 

[ghostguy123]

Why are we talking about short yardage situations again?? So Richardson makes an ok fullback??? He sucked in short, long, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th downs, and every other possible play

 

[Jrodicus]

Pep said preseason he wanted a RBBC. He said later in the year he still wanted a RBBC.

He wanted a RBBC because he was being nice in saying that he didn't have a legit RB on the team....................then this happened. They traded a FIRST ROUNDER for Richardson. He proceeded to be absolutely horrific, and after his horrific play, Pep said again he wanted a RBBC. Not because he actually wanted a RBBC, but because what else is he going to say?

I think you forget that whole middle part to the story which proves, yes PROVES, he really didn't want a RBBC, he wanted a good RB who could get most of the work and made a trade thinking they got that. They were wrong.

Week 1 they have a RBBC with Ballard and Bradshaw (2/3 - 1/3 split). Ballard gets hurt.

Week 2 they have a RBBC with Bradshaw and Brown (2/3 - 1/3 split). Brown misses a block in the 1st quarter that causes Luck to get strip-sacked. He misses another block in the 4th that causes Luck to get sacked.

Colts trade for TRich.

Week 3 they have a RBBC with Bradshaw TRich ( 54/37 - Brown got 3 carries). Bradshaw gets hurt.

If the goal was to have TRich be the lead back by himself, why was it RBBC with Bradshaw?

I guess I'm not really sure how you see this "PROVES" he didn't want a RBBC when everything they did to this point would suggest that they DID want a RBBC.

TRich got the bulk of the carries the next few weeks; IMO, that has more to do with their distrust of Brown than it suggest that they didn't want a RBBC. TRich was a liability in some situations, no doubt about it, so they were forced to go back to a RBBC with Brown.

Again, if Bradshaw doesn't get hurt, I think he and TRich are in a RBBC for the rest of the season.

Are you seriously suggesting that the Colts traded their 1st round pick for Richardson intending to have him play 2nd fiddle to Ahmad Bradshaw?

Look, Richardson SUCKED last year. He was god-awful. It doesn't mean he'll be that bad again in 2014 and beyond, but all these attempts at sugar-coating 2013 are foolish. Trent was BRUTAL. He was bad enough that he likely wouldn't have a job right now if he were just some random mid-rounder or FA. He was absolutely that bad.

I think that it would've ended up as roughly a 2/3 to 1/3 split between TRich and Bradshaw with TRich getting the bulk of the carries.

Why is it so outlandish to think that a RB taken with a high pick would split time with a veteran for season or two?

 

[ghostguy123]

wait now. 2/3 to 1/3 is RRBC??

If the starting RB gets 2/3 of the carries is that really RBBC?

I am pretty sure they brought Trich in because they thought he would be good, and they would have given him 90% of the carries if he actually produced.