Things I'm Noticing while doing Projections for each Team/Player (7 Viewers)

[Snotbubbles]

RB
Here is probably where I will freak people out. Most have Hampton outcarrying Harris, but I am not ready to do that for 2025.
Najee Harris - 220 carries, 920 yards, 9 TD's, 30 catches, 210 yards, 1 TD
Omarion Hampton - 200 carries, 900 yards, 7 TD's, 35 catches, 260 yards, 1 TD
The rest - 30 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD, 10 catches, 70 yards, 0 TD

Love that you're going against the grain a bit. Can you elaborate on why you see it this way?

1) Harbaugh knew exactly who he was getting - a RB who hasn't missed a game through college and the pros. Tread left = TONS!!
2) Harris is no slouch receiving, as evidenced by his 43 catches as a senior, and 45-catch average in the pros. No need to pull him on passing downs.
3) I have the Harris/Hampton tandem pretty close, but for 2025, I think Harris gets more work early on, and slowly cedes touches as the season goes on.

Harris is such an uninspiring runner. There is nothing elite about him.

 

[Joe Bryant]

RB
Here is probably where I will freak people out. Most have Hampton outcarrying Harris, but I am not ready to do that for 2025.
Najee Harris - 220 carries, 920 yards, 9 TD's, 30 catches, 210 yards, 1 TD
Omarion Hampton - 200 carries, 900 yards, 7 TD's, 35 catches, 260 yards, 1 TD
The rest - 30 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD, 10 catches, 70 yards, 0 TD

Love that you're going against the grain a bit. Can you elaborate on why you see it this way?

1) Harbaugh knew exactly who he was getting - a RB who hasn't missed a game through college and the pros. Tread left = TONS!!
2) Harris is no slouch receiving, as evidenced by his 43 catches as a senior, and 45-catch average in the pros. No need to pull him on passing downs.
3) I have the Harris/Hampton tandem pretty close, but for 2025, I think Harris gets more work early on, and slowly cedes touches as the season goes on.

Thanks. We have them pretty close too - about 30 carries apart.

And of course we'll know a lot more once camp starts and we get real info.

Footballguys Chargers Projections

 

[Scoresman]

Las Vegas

Figuring out that the Raiders will run the ball more isn't exactly rocket science. Only concern is the OL, which underperformed last year mainly due to injuries and constant reshuffling. When healthy, this O line should be above average.

I have the Raiders at just under 1,000 plays for the year. They have been vocal about being run first, and Chip Kelly led a run first slow paced offense at Ohio State.

I think Geno will do well in Vegas. He excels when given lots of pocket time and this OL is leagues better than what they had in Seattle.

A little regression (not a ton) for Bowers since only 2 TEs in history have had back to back great seasons like that after a rookie year. Slight bump for Jakobi Meyers since his expected TD rate and actual TD rate should lead to an uptick in TDs by a bit. But it will be interesting to see who Geno gets chemistry with the most in training camp.

 

[Tau837]

Mike Clay projects only 15 games for players. I don't really know why, but its always been that way.

This has never made sense to me. No projection can account accurately for injuries, since they cannot be predicted.

Projecting all players for 17 games means the projections will be wrong for every player who misses any games due to injury (or any other reason). But it could at least be right for players who stay healthy and play 17 games.

Projecting all players for 15 games means the projections will be wrong for every player who misses 0-1 or 3+ games. Seems likely these projections would be less accurate overall than projecting for 17 games.

So I don't get the rationale for it.

 

[Tau837]

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were expected to run more in 2024 and they definitely did. Their pass rate went from 60% down to 52%. Looking deeper however, their pass rate from week 7 on was 57%. The only thing I can find to explain this was JK Dobbins missing a good chunk of games during that span and Gus Edwards essentially being ineffective. Signing Harris and drafting Hampton is a clear indicator to me that they still want to run first so that is what I am projecting.

I think their offensive line is very well rounded and has top 10 potential. Becton is an immediate starter and upgrade, especially for the run game.

The Chargers had the best scoring defense in 2024. Looks like they had some departures in the offseason, but other signings don't have me too worried here. They should continue to be good enough to keep this a run heavy team.

The switch to a run heavy offense was not due to any shortcoming of Justin Herbert. His efficiency skyrocketed last year. 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions, both career bests. But this is still a run first team. I have the team throwing around 520 passes which is in line with most projectors and similar to last year. Except Mike Clay has them throwing 574 times, which I struggle to justify.

My Hampton/Harris split is 200/170 carries.

Per PFF, in the 2024 regular season, the Chargers had 591 called passing plays (including 33 scrambes) and 430 caled running plays (not including the 33 scrambles). That is 57.9% called passing plays.

In the first 4 games, they averaged 26 called passing plays and 28 called rushing plays. In the other 13 games, they averaaged 37.4 called passing plays and 24.5 calling rushing plays. Reasons:

• New coaching staff, new OC, new offense.
• Week 5 bye.
• Herbert missed time in training camp and preseason with a foot injury, then suffered a high ankle sprain in week 2, then aggravated it in week 3. He played through it, but it affected his play. It seems reasonable that as he got further from those injuries, he was able to do more physically, plus he was also gaining reps in the new offense.
• RB Edwards went on IR for weeks 6-9 and RB Dobbins went on IR for weeks 13-16.

Barring injuries, I expect they will call more passing plays this season, though they still likely will be in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. They upgraded the running game but also upgraded the passing targets substantially:

• Signed WR Williams to open the season starting at X. He obviously has chemistry with Herbert. Major upgrade over Chark/Johnston if healthy.
• That moves Johnston to Z, which is a much better fit for his skill set. I expect he will have fewer targets but will play better. Should be at least equal to, and I expect better, than Palmer.
• Signed TE Conklin to provide a #1 TE passing target to complement Dissly. Major upgrade over Hurst.
• Drafted WR Harris in the 2nd to eventually succeed Williams as starting X. Not sure if that will happen this season if Williams stays healthy, but he will get snaps. Major upgrade over the lackluster depth the Chargers had behind Chark/Johnston last season.
• Drafted WR Lambert-Smith in the 5th to provide a needed deep speed threat. I doubt he will get a lot of targets this season, but he could impact the offense just by providing a deep threat.
• Traded up to draft TE Gadsden in the 5th as an intermediate to deep TE target to complement Conklin and Dissly. I doubt he will get a lot of opportunities as a rookie, but he will still be an upgrade over Stone Smartt.

Not necessarily much star power, but that is a lot of upgrades. I agree with you that they want to have a strong running game, and I expect they will. But I also think they will show they are more committed to the passing game. I think all of their additions will complement each other nicely. If they don't suffer major injuries, they should be able to sustain drives better and should also be better in the red zone.

I don't think the defense will be close to the #1 scoring defense again. Their schedule is quite a bit more difficult, and they really did not do enough IMO to make up for the losses of IDL Ford and Edge Bosa. I mean, they addressed those position groups, but IMO there will be a net loss of talent/productivity there. I expect they will contend to be a top 10 defense, but the schedule being so much tougher will be a big factor. There may be a lot more games in 2025 than 2024 in which the Chargers have to pass to stay in them and ultimately win them.

 

[BassNBrew]

That said, Vegas has them winning 10.5 games vs 15 last year, and it seems they have some questions at OL. They also have one of the hardest projected schedules.

This was the sentence that had us confused.

I think what you meant is "Vegas has them winning 10.5 games in 2025 while they won 15 last year"

Yeah I could have worded that better for sure. I do think it's more valuable to look at actual wins last year vs projected this year to see the dropoff Vegas is predicting. I dont see much value in last year's vegas prediction. Vegas is never going to predict 15 wins.

Well, it's comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare the result from last year to a prediction this year (or last) as if it's the same scale. They *are* relatable but it isn't the same equation. I agree with your assessment that 12 is probably more like where it ought to be for 2025, and so then we could still say that Vegas thinks they will regress if 12 is the baseline. But starting from a baseline of 15 is something that Vegas is not doing and neither should we. Because it is apples and oranges. You can't say Vegas will never use 15 (which I stated in my first sentence) and then use that same number as a reference. I'm sorry that but that isn't good process.

And it isn't because of how you worded it. I wasn't confused. You meant it like that. And it is ok to compare apples to oranges but we have to do it right. 12 really should be closer to a baseline here because indeed 15 is insane.

Except I think the comparison of the two is more valuable than using last year’s Vegas line even though it’s technically apples and oranges. I’m not using it to measure Vegas’ accuracy. I’m just trying to get the most relevant data to project an nfl team.

What if you were trying to project a quarterback? What is more useful, last year’s Vegas player prop, or last year’s actual result? I think the actual result is more useful.

When I saw the Vegas line of 10.5 I thought it was low, but the takeaway is that they expect regression from last year. That’s why I look at that data point.

Nevermind, B nailed it.

What are you going to use the Win Loss lines for in regards to individual player projections?

Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing.

As far as the Vegas line for number of games each team will win, I think there may be a misunderstanding here.

Setting the line at 10.5 is not Vegas expecting regression from a team that won 15 games the previous season. Its saying who knows what is going to happen? Its been a winning team so the line doesn't get set at average 8.5 games but it also is not saying the team will regress from how good they were the previous season. Its saying they cant make any money unless they get action on both sides. So they want the line to be low enough to attract action from the Bulls. If they set the line too high and say the QB gets injured or any other acts of god occur and they are losing their shirts.

 

[Scoresman]

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were expected to run more in 2024 and they definitely did. Their pass rate went from 60% down to 52%. Looking deeper however, their pass rate from week 7 on was 57%. The only thing I can find to explain this was JK Dobbins missing a good chunk of games during that span and Gus Edwards essentially being ineffective. Signing Harris and drafting Hampton is a clear indicator to me that they still want to run first so that is what I am projecting.

I think their offensive line is very well rounded and has top 10 potential. Becton is an immediate starter and upgrade, especially for the run game.

The Chargers had the best scoring defense in 2024. Looks like they had some departures in the offseason, but other signings don't have me too worried here. They should continue to be good enough to keep this a run heavy team.

The switch to a run heavy offense was not due to any shortcoming of Justin Herbert. His efficiency skyrocketed last year. 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions, both career bests. But this is still a run first team. I have the team throwing around 520 passes which is in line with most projectors and similar to last year. Except Mike Clay has them throwing 574 times, which I struggle to justify.

My Hampton/Harris split is 200/170 carries.

Per PFF, in the 2024 regular season, the Chargers had 591 called passing plays (including 33 scrambes) and 430 caled running plays (not including the 33 scrambles). That is 57.9% called passing plays.

In the first 4 games, they averaged 26 called passing plays and 28 called rushing plays. In the other 13 games, they averaaged 37.4 called passing plays and 24.5 calling rushing plays. Reasons:

• New coaching staff, new OC, new offense.
• Week 5 bye.
• Herbert missed time in training camp and preseason with a foot injury, then suffered a high ankle sprain in week 2, then aggravated it in week 3. He played through it, but it affected his play. It seems reasonable that as he got further from those injuries, he was able to do more physically, plus he was also gaining reps in the new offense.
• RB Edwards went on IR for weeks 6-9 and RB Dobbins went on IR for weeks 13-16.

Barring injuries, I expect they will call more passing plays this season, though they still likely will be in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. They upgraded the running game but also upgraded the passing targets substantially:

• Signed WR Williams to open the season starting at X. He obviously has chemistry with Herbert. Major upgrade over Chark/Johnston if healthy.
• That moves Johnston to Z, which is a much better fit for his skill set. I expect he will have fewer targets but will play better. Should be at least equal to, and I expect better, than Palmer.
• Signed TE Conklin to provide a #1 TE passing target to complement Dissly. Major upgrade over Hurst.
• Drafted WR Harris in the 2nd to eventually succeed Williams as starting X. Not sure if that will happen this season if Williams stays healthy, but he will get snaps. Major upgrade over the lackluster depth the Chargers had behind Chark/Johnston last season.
• Drafted WR Lambert-Smith in the 5th to provide a needed deep speed threat. I doubt he will get a lot of targets this season, but he could impact the offense just by providing a deep threat.
• Traded up to draft TE Gadsden in the 5th as an intermediate to deep TE target to complement Conklin and Dissly. I doubt he will get a lot of opportunities as a rookie, but he will still be an upgrade over Stone Smartt.

Not necessarily much star power, but that is a lot of upgrades. I agree with you that they want to have a strong running game, and I expect they will. But I also think they will show they are more committed to the passing game. I think all of their additions will complement each other nicely. If they don't suffer major injuries, they should be able to sustain drives better and should also be better in the red zone.

I don't think the defense will be close to the #1 scoring defense again. Their schedule is quite a bit more difficult, and they really did not do enough IMO to make up for the losses of IDL Ford and Edge Bosa. I mean, they addressed those position groups, but IMO there will be a net loss of talent/productivity there. I expect they will contend to be a top 10 defense, but the schedule being so much tougher will be a big factor. There may be a lot more games in 2025 than 2024 in which the Chargers have to pass to stay in them and ultimately win them.

Great post, thanks. It's interesting the large gap in plays between PFF and pro-football-reference. Looks like pro football ref does not include sacks, and includes scrambles as runs. So they have 510 pass plays, 463 runs for a 52.4% pass rate. I use pro-football-reference because no paywalls. As long as what I'm projecting is apples to apples to the team totals I'm comparing to I think I'm fine.

How much more do you think they will pass than last year in precentage?

 

[Scoresman]

Miami

Last year, Miami's explosive offense from 2023 imploded. The 2024 Dolphins are a textbook example of how an offensive line's play affects the entire team. The ineffectiveness of Miami's line caused McDaniels to shift to a short passing style offense. In 2023, about 14% of Tua's passes went 20+ yards downfield. Last year, this plummeted to 6%.

So the question is what's changed for this year? They did re-tool the line after Armstead's retirement, signing Daniels and drafting Savaiinaea, but neither of them replace Armstead, and there is a massive hole at LT. I dont think they did enough here to get back to their long passing game. Combine this with Tua's health and I think they are being forced to stick to this shorter passing offense.

I think because of this, Jonnu Smith remains a very attractive TE target. I have him with a slight uptick in target share from last year. Achane is another, but it's only if he can be healthy.

 

[Snotbubbles]

That said, Vegas has them winning 10.5 games vs 15 last year, and it seems they have some questions at OL. They also have one of the hardest projected schedules.

This was the sentence that had us confused.

I think what you meant is "Vegas has them winning 10.5 games in 2025 while they won 15 last year"

Yeah I could have worded that better for sure. I do think it's more valuable to look at actual wins last year vs projected this year to see the dropoff Vegas is predicting. I dont see much value in last year's vegas prediction. Vegas is never going to predict 15 wins.

Well, it's comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare the result from last year to a prediction this year (or last) as if it's the same scale. They *are* relatable but it isn't the same equation. I agree with your assessment that 12 is probably more like where it ought to be for 2025, and so then we could still say that Vegas thinks they will regress if 12 is the baseline. But starting from a baseline of 15 is something that Vegas is not doing and neither should we. Because it is apples and oranges. You can't say Vegas will never use 15 (which I stated in my first sentence) and then use that same number as a reference. I'm sorry that but that isn't good process.

And it isn't because of how you worded it. I wasn't confused. You meant it like that. And it is ok to compare apples to oranges but we have to do it right. 12 really should be closer to a baseline here because indeed 15 is insane.

Except I think the comparison of the two is more valuable than using last year’s Vegas line even though it’s technically apples and oranges. I’m not using it to measure Vegas’ accuracy. I’m just trying to get the most relevant data to project an nfl team.

What if you were trying to project a quarterback? What is more useful, last year’s Vegas player prop, or last year’s actual result? I think the actual result is more useful.

When I saw the Vegas line of 10.5 I thought it was low, but the takeaway is that they expect regression from last year. That’s why I look at that data point.

Nevermind, B nailed it.

What are you going to use the Win Loss lines for in regards to individual player projections?

Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing.

As far as the Vegas line for number of games each team will win, I think there may be a misunderstanding here.

Setting the line at 10.5 is not Vegas expecting regression from a team that won 15 games the previous season. Its saying who knows what is going to happen? Its been a winning team so the line doesn't get set at average 8.5 games but it also is not saying the team will regress from how good they were the previous season. Its saying they cant make any money unless they get action on both sides. So they want the line to be low enough to attract action from the Bulls. If they set the line too high and say the QB gets injured or any other acts of god occur and they are losing their shirts.

I highlighted "Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing." While, that may be a correct statement, winning teams throw the ball more efficiently, so they do more with less.

Here are the bottom 10 teams in passing yards last season:
32. New England
31. Chicago
30. Carolina
29. Philadelphia
28. New York Giants
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
26. Tennessee Titans
25. Indianapolis Colts
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. New Orleans Saints

Here were the top 10 teams in passing yards last season:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Detroit Lions
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Buffalo Bills
10. LA Rams

 

[Birdie048]

I highlighted "Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing." While, that may be a correct statement, winning teams throw the ball more efficiently, so they do more with less.

Here are the bottom 10 teams in passing yards last season:
32. New England
31. Chicago
30. Carolina
29. Philadelphia
28. New York Giants



Here were the top 10 teams in passing yards last season:
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Seattle Seahawks

Bottom 10 Surprise = Philly
Top 10 Surprise = Baltimore

Very different perspectives of those offenses!

 

[Biabreakable]

That said, Vegas has them winning 10.5 games vs 15 last year, and it seems they have some questions at OL. They also have one of the hardest projected schedules.

This was the sentence that had us confused.

I think what you meant is "Vegas has them winning 10.5 games in 2025 while they won 15 last year"

Yeah I could have worded that better for sure. I do think it's more valuable to look at actual wins last year vs projected this year to see the dropoff Vegas is predicting. I dont see much value in last year's vegas prediction. Vegas is never going to predict 15 wins.

Well, it's comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare the result from last year to a prediction this year (or last) as if it's the same scale. They *are* relatable but it isn't the same equation. I agree with your assessment that 12 is probably more like where it ought to be for 2025, and so then we could still say that Vegas thinks they will regress if 12 is the baseline. But starting from a baseline of 15 is something that Vegas is not doing and neither should we. Because it is apples and oranges. You can't say Vegas will never use 15 (which I stated in my first sentence) and then use that same number as a reference. I'm sorry that but that isn't good process.

And it isn't because of how you worded it. I wasn't confused. You meant it like that. And it is ok to compare apples to oranges but we have to do it right. 12 really should be closer to a baseline here because indeed 15 is insane.

Except I think the comparison of the two is more valuable than using last year’s Vegas line even though it’s technically apples and oranges. I’m not using it to measure Vegas’ accuracy. I’m just trying to get the most relevant data to project an nfl team.

What if you were trying to project a quarterback? What is more useful, last year’s Vegas player prop, or last year’s actual result? I think the actual result is more useful.

When I saw the Vegas line of 10.5 I thought it was low, but the takeaway is that they expect regression from last year. That’s why I look at that data point.

Nevermind, B nailed it.

What are you going to use the Win Loss lines for in regards to individual player projections?

Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing.

As far as the Vegas line for number of games each team will win, I think there may be a misunderstanding here.

Setting the line at 10.5 is not Vegas expecting regression from a team that won 15 games the previous season. Its saying who knows what is going to happen? Its been a winning team so the line doesn't get set at average 8.5 games but it also is not saying the team will regress from how good they were the previous season. Its saying they cant make any money unless they get action on both sides. So they want the line to be low enough to attract action from the Bulls. If they set the line too high and say the QB gets injured or any other acts of god occur and they are losing their shirts.

I highlighted "Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing." While, that may be a correct statement, winning teams throw the ball more efficiently, so they do more with less.

Here are the bottom 10 teams in passing yards last season:
32. New England
31. Chicago
30. Carolina
29. Philadelphia
28. New York Giants
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
26. Tennessee Titans
25. Indianapolis Colts
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. New Orleans Saints

Here were the top 10 teams in passing yards last season:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Detroit Lions
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Buffalo Bills
10. LA Rams

This is helpful perspective I think.

Personally I've never used win/loss expectations for projecting game script.

I usually use the 3 year average for each team as a foundation for team stats.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I highlighted "Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing." While, that may be a correct statement, winning teams throw the ball more efficiently, so they do more with less.

Here are the bottom 10 teams in passing yards last season:
32. New England
31. Chicago
30. Carolina
29. Philadelphia
28. New York Giants



Here were the top 10 teams in passing yards last season:
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Seattle Seahawks

Bottom 10 Surprise = Philly
Top 10 Surprise = Baltimore

Very different perspectives of those offenses!

What's really strange is that Philly threw the least amount of pass attempts (448) and Baltimore threw the second least (477). Yet one is in the bottom 10 in passing and one in the top 10. That shows just how awesome Baltimore was on offense last season (the also led the league in rushing yards).

 

[Scoresman]

That said, Vegas has them winning 10.5 games vs 15 last year, and it seems they have some questions at OL. They also have one of the hardest projected schedules.

This was the sentence that had us confused.

I think what you meant is "Vegas has them winning 10.5 games in 2025 while they won 15 last year"

Yeah I could have worded that better for sure. I do think it's more valuable to look at actual wins last year vs projected this year to see the dropoff Vegas is predicting. I dont see much value in last year's vegas prediction. Vegas is never going to predict 15 wins.

Well, it's comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare the result from last year to a prediction this year (or last) as if it's the same scale. They *are* relatable but it isn't the same equation. I agree with your assessment that 12 is probably more like where it ought to be for 2025, and so then we could still say that Vegas thinks they will regress if 12 is the baseline. But starting from a baseline of 15 is something that Vegas is not doing and neither should we. Because it is apples and oranges. You can't say Vegas will never use 15 (which I stated in my first sentence) and then use that same number as a reference. I'm sorry that but that isn't good process.

And it isn't because of how you worded it. I wasn't confused. You meant it like that. And it is ok to compare apples to oranges but we have to do it right. 12 really should be closer to a baseline here because indeed 15 is insane.

Except I think the comparison of the two is more valuable than using last year’s Vegas line even though it’s technically apples and oranges. I’m not using it to measure Vegas’ accuracy. I’m just trying to get the most relevant data to project an nfl team.

What if you were trying to project a quarterback? What is more useful, last year’s Vegas player prop, or last year’s actual result? I think the actual result is more useful.

When I saw the Vegas line of 10.5 I thought it was low, but the takeaway is that they expect regression from last year. That’s why I look at that data point.

Nevermind, B nailed it.

What are you going to use the Win Loss lines for in regards to individual player projections?

Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing.

As far as the Vegas line for number of games each team will win, I think there may be a misunderstanding here.

Setting the line at 10.5 is not Vegas expecting regression from a team that won 15 games the previous season. Its saying who knows what is going to happen? Its been a winning team so the line doesn't get set at average 8.5 games but it also is not saying the team will regress from how good they were the previous season. Its saying they cant make any money unless they get action on both sides. So they want the line to be low enough to attract action from the Bulls. If they set the line too high and say the QB gets injured or any other acts of god occur and they are losing their shirts.

I highlighted "Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing." While, that may be a correct statement, winning teams throw the ball more efficiently, so they do more with less.

Here are the bottom 10 teams in passing yards last season:
32. New England
31. Chicago
30. Carolina
29. Philadelphia
28. New York Giants
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
26. Tennessee Titans
25. Indianapolis Colts
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. New Orleans Saints

Here were the top 10 teams in passing yards last season:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Detroit Lions
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Buffalo Bills
10. LA Rams

This is helpful perspective I think.

Personally I've never used win/loss expectations for projecting game script.

I usually use the 3 year average for each team as a foundation for team stats.

I use both. Also use OL rankings, defensive rankings, and SoS to an extent. If I'm differing from previous year averages, I have to have a reason.

 

[Joe Bryant]

That said, Vegas has them winning 10.5 games vs 15 last year, and it seems they have some questions at OL. They also have one of the hardest projected schedules.

This was the sentence that had us confused.

I think what you meant is "Vegas has them winning 10.5 games in 2025 while they won 15 last year"

Yeah I could have worded that better for sure. I do think it's more valuable to look at actual wins last year vs projected this year to see the dropoff Vegas is predicting. I dont see much value in last year's vegas prediction. Vegas is never going to predict 15 wins.

Well, it's comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare the result from last year to a prediction this year (or last) as if it's the same scale. They *are* relatable but it isn't the same equation. I agree with your assessment that 12 is probably more like where it ought to be for 2025, and so then we could still say that Vegas thinks they will regress if 12 is the baseline. But starting from a baseline of 15 is something that Vegas is not doing and neither should we. Because it is apples and oranges. You can't say Vegas will never use 15 (which I stated in my first sentence) and then use that same number as a reference. I'm sorry that but that isn't good process.

And it isn't because of how you worded it. I wasn't confused. You meant it like that. And it is ok to compare apples to oranges but we have to do it right. 12 really should be closer to a baseline here because indeed 15 is insane.

Except I think the comparison of the two is more valuable than using last year’s Vegas line even though it’s technically apples and oranges. I’m not using it to measure Vegas’ accuracy. I’m just trying to get the most relevant data to project an nfl team.

What if you were trying to project a quarterback? What is more useful, last year’s Vegas player prop, or last year’s actual result? I think the actual result is more useful.

When I saw the Vegas line of 10.5 I thought it was low, but the takeaway is that they expect regression from last year. That’s why I look at that data point.

Nevermind, B nailed it.

What are you going to use the Win Loss lines for in regards to individual player projections?

Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing.

As far as the Vegas line for number of games each team will win, I think there may be a misunderstanding here.

Setting the line at 10.5 is not Vegas expecting regression from a team that won 15 games the previous season. Its saying who knows what is going to happen? Its been a winning team so the line doesn't get set at average 8.5 games but it also is not saying the team will regress from how good they were the previous season. Its saying they cant make any money unless they get action on both sides. So they want the line to be low enough to attract action from the Bulls. If they set the line too high and say the QB gets injured or any other acts of god occur and they are losing their shirts.

I highlighted "Losing teams throw the ball more because they are losing." While, that may be a correct statement, winning teams throw the ball more efficiently, so they do more with less.

Here are the bottom 10 teams in passing yards last season:
32. New England
31. Chicago
30. Carolina
29. Philadelphia
28. New York Giants
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
26. Tennessee Titans
25. Indianapolis Colts
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. New Orleans Saints

Here were the top 10 teams in passing yards last season:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Detroit Lions
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Buffalo Bills
10. LA Rams

This is helpful perspective I think.

Personally I've never used win/loss expectations for projecting game script.

I usually use the 3 year average for each team as a foundation for team stats.

Thanks. Can you share your projections here?

 

[Scoresman]

Minnesota

I'm pretty bullish on this Vikings passing game. McCarthy is being setup for success. The offensive line has been massively upgraded. Kevin McConnell has never ranked worse than 6th in passing yards and TDs while head coach.

The Vikings have one of the biggest swings in SoS. Last year they ended up with a top 10 easy schedule. This year, they are projected around 30th. This is reflected in their Vegas win total of only 8.5. This presents a bit of a concern about potential hiccups for McCarthy's growth, but I did notice that they open the season with the easiest part of their schedule.

Most projectors have the Vikings throwing 26-28 TDs which would be a pretty significant change from last year's 35, especially if you think there will be more garbage time with more projected losses. I'm at 30 right now and it seems about right if not a bit low.

Last year, the Vikings also drastically dropped their pass rate from the years before. They were consistently over 60%, last year 54.5% (adjusted for sacks). Aaron Jones coming aboard no doubt drove that a bit. It will be interesting to see if this continues with McCarthy, and may be dependent on how well he plays.

 

[Tau837]

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were expected to run more in 2024 and they definitely did. Their pass rate went from 60% down to 52%. Looking deeper however, their pass rate from week 7 on was 57%. The only thing I can find to explain this was JK Dobbins missing a good chunk of games during that span and Gus Edwards essentially being ineffective. Signing Harris and drafting Hampton is a clear indicator to me that they still want to run first so that is what I am projecting.

I think their offensive line is very well rounded and has top 10 potential. Becton is an immediate starter and upgrade, especially for the run game.

The Chargers had the best scoring defense in 2024. Looks like they had some departures in the offseason, but other signings don't have me too worried here. They should continue to be good enough to keep this a run heavy team.

The switch to a run heavy offense was not due to any shortcoming of Justin Herbert. His efficiency skyrocketed last year. 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions, both career bests. But this is still a run first team. I have the team throwing around 520 passes which is in line with most projectors and similar to last year. Except Mike Clay has them throwing 574 times, which I struggle to justify.

My Hampton/Harris split is 200/170 carries.

Per PFF, in the 2024 regular season, the Chargers had 591 called passing plays (including 33 scrambes) and 430 caled running plays (not including the 33 scrambles). That is 57.9% called passing plays.

In the first 4 games, they averaged 26 called passing plays and 28 called rushing plays. In the other 13 games, they averaaged 37.4 called passing plays and 24.5 calling rushing plays. Reasons:

• New coaching staff, new OC, new offense.
• Week 5 bye.
• Herbert missed time in training camp and preseason with a foot injury, then suffered a high ankle sprain in week 2, then aggravated it in week 3. He played through it, but it affected his play. It seems reasonable that as he got further from those injuries, he was able to do more physically, plus he was also gaining reps in the new offense.
• RB Edwards went on IR for weeks 6-9 and RB Dobbins went on IR for weeks 13-16.

Barring injuries, I expect they will call more passing plays this season, though they still likely will be in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. They upgraded the running game but also upgraded the passing targets substantially:

• Signed WR Williams to open the season starting at X. He obviously has chemistry with Herbert. Major upgrade over Chark/Johnston if healthy.
• That moves Johnston to Z, which is a much better fit for his skill set. I expect he will have fewer targets but will play better. Should be at least equal to, and I expect better, than Palmer.
• Signed TE Conklin to provide a #1 TE passing target to complement Dissly. Major upgrade over Hurst.
• Drafted WR Harris in the 2nd to eventually succeed Williams as starting X. Not sure if that will happen this season if Williams stays healthy, but he will get snaps. Major upgrade over the lackluster depth the Chargers had behind Chark/Johnston last season.
• Drafted WR Lambert-Smith in the 5th to provide a needed deep speed threat. I doubt he will get a lot of targets this season, but he could impact the offense just by providing a deep threat.
• Traded up to draft TE Gadsden in the 5th as an intermediate to deep TE target to complement Conklin and Dissly. I doubt he will get a lot of opportunities as a rookie, but he will still be an upgrade over Stone Smartt.

Not necessarily much star power, but that is a lot of upgrades. I agree with you that they want to have a strong running game, and I expect they will. But I also think they will show they are more committed to the passing game. I think all of their additions will complement each other nicely. If they don't suffer major injuries, they should be able to sustain drives better and should also be better in the red zone.

I don't think the defense will be close to the #1 scoring defense again. Their schedule is quite a bit more difficult, and they really did not do enough IMO to make up for the losses of IDL Ford and Edge Bosa. I mean, they addressed those position groups, but IMO there will be a net loss of talent/productivity there. I expect they will contend to be a top 10 defense, but the schedule being so much tougher will be a big factor. There may be a lot more games in 2025 than 2024 in which the Chargers have to pass to stay in them and ultimately win them.

Great post, thanks. It's interesting the large gap in plays between PFF and pro-football-reference. Looks like pro football ref does not include sacks, and includes scrambles as runs. So they have 510 pass plays, 463 runs for a 52.4% pass rate. I use pro-football-reference because no paywalls. As long as what I'm projecting is apples to apples to the team totals I'm comparing to I think I'm fine.

How much more do you think they will pass than last year in precentage?

I think they will run more plays, because the offense will be more effective at sustaining drives. To use round numbers, I think they will have 450 called running plays and 640 called passing plays. Assuming 40 scrambles and 40 sacks, that is 560 passing attempts vs. 490 rushing attempts.

 

[Chaka]

RB
Here is probably where I will freak people out. Most have Hampton outcarrying Harris, but I am not ready to do that for 2025.
Najee Harris - 220 carries, 920 yards, 9 TD's, 30 catches, 210 yards, 1 TD
Omarion Hampton - 200 carries, 900 yards, 7 TD's, 35 catches, 260 yards, 1 TD
The rest - 30 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD, 10 catches, 70 yards, 0 TD

Love that you're going against the grain a bit. Can you elaborate on why you see it this way?

1) Harbaugh knew exactly who he was getting - a RB who hasn't missed a game through college and the pros. Tread left = TONS!!
2) Harris is no slouch receiving, as evidenced by his 43 catches as a senior, and 45-catch average in the pros. No need to pull him on passing downs.
3) I have the Harris/Hampton tandem pretty close, but for 2025, I think Harris gets more work early on, and slowly cedes touches as the season goes on.

Harris is such an uninspiring runner. There is nothing elite about him.

He has never missed a game and has only five fumbles on 1,314 touches over 71 games. He may be a mid runner but coaches like Harbaugh love that kind of reliability. I expect him to be the RB of choice in closing and clutch situations.

 

[Chaka]

Las Vegas

Figuring out that the Raiders will run the ball more isn't exactly rocket science. Only concern is the OL, which underperformed last year mainly due to injuries and constant reshuffling. When healthy, this O line should be above average.

I have the Raiders at just under 1,000 plays for the year. They have been vocal about being run first, and Chip Kelly led a run first slow paced offense at Ohio State.

I think Geno will do well in Vegas. He excels when given lots of pocket time and this OL is leagues better than what they had in Seattle.

A little regression (not a ton) for Bowers since only 2 TEs in history have had back to back great seasons like that after a rookie year. Slight bump for Jakobi Meyers since his expected TD rate and actual TD rate should lead to an uptick in TDs by a bit. But it will be interesting to see who Geno gets chemistry with the most in training camp.

A lot of blame for the OL can be placed on Getsy and his inability to scheme to their talent. There was a lot of chatter in the Raiders thread about Getsy trying to force the OL and Zamir to play to his schemes when they clearly not suited to excel in that scheme.

I am not sure the Raiders OL is significantly better than Seattle's but having Jeanty along with Kelly's scheme should help make up for a lot of deficiencies in talent on the line. I also expect Zamir to have a bit of a bump under Kelly even if Jeanty will be the unquestioned lead guy.

 

[Scoresman]

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were expected to run more in 2024 and they definitely did. Their pass rate went from 60% down to 52%. Looking deeper however, their pass rate from week 7 on was 57%. The only thing I can find to explain this was JK Dobbins missing a good chunk of games during that span and Gus Edwards essentially being ineffective. Signing Harris and drafting Hampton is a clear indicator to me that they still want to run first so that is what I am projecting.

I think their offensive line is very well rounded and has top 10 potential. Becton is an immediate starter and upgrade, especially for the run game.

The Chargers had the best scoring defense in 2024. Looks like they had some departures in the offseason, but other signings don't have me too worried here. They should continue to be good enough to keep this a run heavy team.

The switch to a run heavy offense was not due to any shortcoming of Justin Herbert. His efficiency skyrocketed last year. 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions, both career bests. But this is still a run first team. I have the team throwing around 520 passes which is in line with most projectors and similar to last year. Except Mike Clay has them throwing 574 times, which I struggle to justify.

My Hampton/Harris split is 200/170 carries.

Per PFF, in the 2024 regular season, the Chargers had 591 called passing plays (including 33 scrambes) and 430 caled running plays (not including the 33 scrambles). That is 57.9% called passing plays.

In the first 4 games, they averaged 26 called passing plays and 28 called rushing plays. In the other 13 games, they averaaged 37.4 called passing plays and 24.5 calling rushing plays. Reasons:

• New coaching staff, new OC, new offense.
• Week 5 bye.
• Herbert missed time in training camp and preseason with a foot injury, then suffered a high ankle sprain in week 2, then aggravated it in week 3. He played through it, but it affected his play. It seems reasonable that as he got further from those injuries, he was able to do more physically, plus he was also gaining reps in the new offense.
• RB Edwards went on IR for weeks 6-9 and RB Dobbins went on IR for weeks 13-16.

Barring injuries, I expect they will call more passing plays this season, though they still likely will be in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. They upgraded the running game but also upgraded the passing targets substantially:

• Signed WR Williams to open the season starting at X. He obviously has chemistry with Herbert. Major upgrade over Chark/Johnston if healthy.
• That moves Johnston to Z, which is a much better fit for his skill set. I expect he will have fewer targets but will play better. Should be at least equal to, and I expect better, than Palmer.
• Signed TE Conklin to provide a #1 TE passing target to complement Dissly. Major upgrade over Hurst.
• Drafted WR Harris in the 2nd to eventually succeed Williams as starting X. Not sure if that will happen this season if Williams stays healthy, but he will get snaps. Major upgrade over the lackluster depth the Chargers had behind Chark/Johnston last season.
• Drafted WR Lambert-Smith in the 5th to provide a needed deep speed threat. I doubt he will get a lot of targets this season, but he could impact the offense just by providing a deep threat.
• Traded up to draft TE Gadsden in the 5th as an intermediate to deep TE target to complement Conklin and Dissly. I doubt he will get a lot of opportunities as a rookie, but he will still be an upgrade over Stone Smartt.

Not necessarily much star power, but that is a lot of upgrades. I agree with you that they want to have a strong running game, and I expect they will. But I also think they will show they are more committed to the passing game. I think all of their additions will complement each other nicely. If they don't suffer major injuries, they should be able to sustain drives better and should also be better in the red zone.

I don't think the defense will be close to the #1 scoring defense again. Their schedule is quite a bit more difficult, and they really did not do enough IMO to make up for the losses of IDL Ford and Edge Bosa. I mean, they addressed those position groups, but IMO there will be a net loss of talent/productivity there. I expect they will contend to be a top 10 defense, but the schedule being so much tougher will be a big factor. There may be a lot more games in 2025 than 2024 in which the Chargers have to pass to stay in them and ultimately win them.

Great post, thanks. It's interesting the large gap in plays between PFF and pro-football-reference. Looks like pro football ref does not include sacks, and includes scrambles as runs. So they have 510 pass plays, 463 runs for a 52.4% pass rate. I use pro-football-reference because no paywalls. As long as what I'm projecting is apples to apples to the team totals I'm comparing to I think I'm fine.

How much more do you think they will pass than last year in precentage?

I think they will run more plays, because the offense will be more effective at sustaining drives. To use round numbers, I think they will have 450 called running plays and 640 called passing plays. Assuming 40 scrambles and 40 sacks, that is 560 passing attempts vs. 490 rushing attempts.

Fair enough. My only comment would be that this is a lot of plays for a Harbaugh led offense, and on top of that, opposing offenses should be able to stay on the field longer, compounding this.

 

[Tau837]

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were expected to run more in 2024 and they definitely did. Their pass rate went from 60% down to 52%. Looking deeper however, their pass rate from week 7 on was 57%. The only thing I can find to explain this was JK Dobbins missing a good chunk of games during that span and Gus Edwards essentially being ineffective. Signing Harris and drafting Hampton is a clear indicator to me that they still want to run first so that is what I am projecting.

I think their offensive line is very well rounded and has top 10 potential. Becton is an immediate starter and upgrade, especially for the run game.

The Chargers had the best scoring defense in 2024. Looks like they had some departures in the offseason, but other signings don't have me too worried here. They should continue to be good enough to keep this a run heavy team.

The switch to a run heavy offense was not due to any shortcoming of Justin Herbert. His efficiency skyrocketed last year. 7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions, both career bests. But this is still a run first team. I have the team throwing around 520 passes which is in line with most projectors and similar to last year. Except Mike Clay has them throwing 574 times, which I struggle to justify.

My Hampton/Harris split is 200/170 carries.

Per PFF, in the 2024 regular season, the Chargers had 591 called passing plays (including 33 scrambes) and 430 caled running plays (not including the 33 scrambles). That is 57.9% called passing plays.

In the first 4 games, they averaged 26 called passing plays and 28 called rushing plays. In the other 13 games, they averaaged 37.4 called passing plays and 24.5 calling rushing plays. Reasons:

• New coaching staff, new OC, new offense.
• Week 5 bye.
• Herbert missed time in training camp and preseason with a foot injury, then suffered a high ankle sprain in week 2, then aggravated it in week 3. He played through it, but it affected his play. It seems reasonable that as he got further from those injuries, he was able to do more physically, plus he was also gaining reps in the new offense.
• RB Edwards went on IR for weeks 6-9 and RB Dobbins went on IR for weeks 13-16.

Barring injuries, I expect they will call more passing plays this season, though they still likely will be in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. They upgraded the running game but also upgraded the passing targets substantially:

• Signed WR Williams to open the season starting at X. He obviously has chemistry with Herbert. Major upgrade over Chark/Johnston if healthy.
• That moves Johnston to Z, which is a much better fit for his skill set. I expect he will have fewer targets but will play better. Should be at least equal to, and I expect better, than Palmer.
• Signed TE Conklin to provide a #1 TE passing target to complement Dissly. Major upgrade over Hurst.
• Drafted WR Harris in the 2nd to eventually succeed Williams as starting X. Not sure if that will happen this season if Williams stays healthy, but he will get snaps. Major upgrade over the lackluster depth the Chargers had behind Chark/Johnston last season.
• Drafted WR Lambert-Smith in the 5th to provide a needed deep speed threat. I doubt he will get a lot of targets this season, but he could impact the offense just by providing a deep threat.
• Traded up to draft TE Gadsden in the 5th as an intermediate to deep TE target to complement Conklin and Dissly. I doubt he will get a lot of opportunities as a rookie, but he will still be an upgrade over Stone Smartt.

Not necessarily much star power, but that is a lot of upgrades. I agree with you that they want to have a strong running game, and I expect they will. But I also think they will show they are more committed to the passing game. I think all of their additions will complement each other nicely. If they don't suffer major injuries, they should be able to sustain drives better and should also be better in the red zone.

I don't think the defense will be close to the #1 scoring defense again. Their schedule is quite a bit more difficult, and they really did not do enough IMO to make up for the losses of IDL Ford and Edge Bosa. I mean, they addressed those position groups, but IMO there will be a net loss of talent/productivity there. I expect they will contend to be a top 10 defense, but the schedule being so much tougher will be a big factor. There may be a lot more games in 2025 than 2024 in which the Chargers have to pass to stay in them and ultimately win them.

Great post, thanks. It's interesting the large gap in plays between PFF and pro-football-reference. Looks like pro football ref does not include sacks, and includes scrambles as runs. So they have 510 pass plays, 463 runs for a 52.4% pass rate. I use pro-football-reference because no paywalls. As long as what I'm projecting is apples to apples to the team totals I'm comparing to I think I'm fine.

How much more do you think they will pass than last year in precentage?

I think they will run more plays, because the offense will be more effective at sustaining drives. To use round numbers, I think they will have 450 called running plays and 640 called passing plays. Assuming 40 scrambles and 40 sacks, that is 560 passing attempts vs. 490 rushing attempts.

Fair enough. My only comment would be that this is a lot of plays for a Harbaugh led offense, and on top of that, opposing offenses should be able to stay on the field longer, compounding this.

Agree, fair point. I would simply point out, you are seemingly basing your comments on "Harbaugh led offense" primarily on his 49ers offenses, which were quarterbacked by Smith and Kaepernick (and were also more than 10 years ago). Herbert is (IMO) obviously much more talented than those two. Yes, you can point at last season, but I already pointed out that (a) Herbert was hurt, and (b) the targets are upgraded pretty much across the board.

To make sure this is clear, I am projecting here +49 pass attempts and +20 rushing attempts. It's not like I am drastically skewing their balance from last season. I get that one can question how reasonable it is for them to run ~70 more plays. That is a fair question. I am optimistic on that front, but I can understand other opinions.

 

[Scoresman]

New England

The Patriots had the worst offensive line in the league last year, and yet Drake Maye was still somewhat able to be alright. The OL was ranked no better than bottom 3 in every single category PFF grades. The additions they made to the line favor pass protection over run blocking, so this is good news for Maye, not so much for Rhamondre/Henderson. Also, the hiring of McDaniels should mean really good things for Maye.

The Patriots also have the easiest projected schedule in the league.

I know the O line was bad, but Antonio Gibson beat Rhamondre in many categories that PFF grades. That's just bad. I'm giving Rhamondre and Henderson an almost even share of splits, with Henderson getting more work receiving.

 

[Joe Bryant]

New England

The Patriots had the worst offensive line in the league last year, and yet Drake Maye was still somewhat able to be alright. The OL was ranked no better than bottom 3 in every single category PFF grades. The additions they made to the line favor pass protection over run blocking, so this is good news for Maye, not so much for Rhamondre/Henderson. Also, the hiring of McDaniels should mean really good things for Maye.

The Patriots also have the easiest projected schedule in the league.

I know the O line was bad, but Antonio Gibson beat Rhamondre in many categories that PFF grades. That's just bad. I'm giving Rhamondre and Henderson an almost even share of splits, with Henderson getting more work receiving.

This one is fun.

 

[Scoresman]

New England

The Patriots had the worst offensive line in the league last year, and yet Drake Maye was still somewhat able to be alright. The OL was ranked no better than bottom 3 in every single category PFF grades. The additions they made to the line favor pass protection over run blocking, so this is good news for Maye, not so much for Rhamondre/Henderson. Also, the hiring of McDaniels should mean really good things for Maye.

The Patriots also have the easiest projected schedule in the league.

I know the O line was bad, but Antonio Gibson beat Rhamondre in many categories that PFF grades. That's just bad. I'm giving Rhamondre and Henderson an almost even share of splits, with Henderson getting more work receiving.

This one is fun.

Yes! I love projecting teams on the upswing.

But now I have New Orleans to do next.

 

[Joe Bryant]

New England

The Patriots had the worst offensive line in the league last year, and yet Drake Maye was still somewhat able to be alright. The OL was ranked no better than bottom 3 in every single category PFF grades. The additions they made to the line favor pass protection over run blocking, so this is good news for Maye, not so much for Rhamondre/Henderson. Also, the hiring of McDaniels should mean really good things for Maye.

The Patriots also have the easiest projected schedule in the league.

I know the O line was bad, but Antonio Gibson beat Rhamondre in many categories that PFF grades. That's just bad. I'm giving Rhamondre and Henderson an almost even share of splits, with Henderson getting more work receiving.

This one is fun.

Yes! I love projecting teams on the upswing.

But now I have New Orleans to do next.

Even more fun!

 

[Scoresman]

New Orleans

Derek Carr's loss is absolutely huge for this team. He was PFF's 4th graded passer last year.

Not much to say here. The OL did not improve much and should be a below average unit again.

The only bright spot remains Alvin Kamara and his PPR upside. But I do have two concerns here. 1) Will Moore bring the Tush Push over from Philly, cutting into goalline work, and 2) Moore's offenses have never ranked higher than 19th in terms of RB target share. That said, I dont think they are going to have much choice but to feed Kamara with the QBs they have currently.

 

[Grahamburn]

Jacksonville

The Jaguars had a down year last year, but made one of the better coaching changes of the offseason and a number of other improvements that have me thinking a return to fighting for a playoff spot might even be in the cards.

Liam Coen's Buccaneer's offense was one of the highest in the league in RB volume, particularly in the passing game. Figuring who is going to benefit from this is a challenge, however. It seems to be some sort of three way committee and now there are trade rumors surrounding Etienne. I'm confident in my total team RB projection of 435 carries, 1,956 yards, 13 TDs. As training camp proceeds, I'll tweak individual ratios. Right now Etienne is slightly leading over Tank in carries.

They made clear improvements on the offensive line, which I think will be huge. They won 4 games last year. Vegas had them at 7.5 this year.

Liam Coen has been vocal about BTJ being the focus of the passing game and I am projecting accordingly with a 24.5% target share.

The tough part of projecting the Jags is what impact will oline have on Cohen’s offensive approach. I would like to know why you believe they made improvements in the oline. I have checked various sites oline grades and they universally have the Bucs oline graded in the top 10 and the Jags in the bottom 5 (FBG have the Bucs at 6 and the Jags at 31) If these ranks are accurate how does that change Cohen’s approach.

They added Robert Hainsey in FA, which should help tremendously. The Jaguars were particularly bad at run blocking last year and he should be a big improvement on paper. Their 2 draft picks also seem to grade out as huge upgrades, especially Milium who should see playing time sooner rather than later.

I also feel like The Jags have been one of the most poorly coached teams of Lawrence's tenure. I'm expecting the new coaching staff to have a high impact on the whole team.

Hainsey will know the offense, but he was the worst center in the game when he started for Tampa in 2023. He's the reason they drafted Barton in the first round. I wouldn't count on Hainsey to improve Jax' line much.

 

[Scoresman]

Jacksonville

The Jaguars had a down year last year, but made one of the better coaching changes of the offseason and a number of other improvements that have me thinking a return to fighting for a playoff spot might even be in the cards.

Liam Coen's Buccaneer's offense was one of the highest in the league in RB volume, particularly in the passing game. Figuring who is going to benefit from this is a challenge, however. It seems to be some sort of three way committee and now there are trade rumors surrounding Etienne. I'm confident in my total team RB projection of 435 carries, 1,956 yards, 13 TDs. As training camp proceeds, I'll tweak individual ratios. Right now Etienne is slightly leading over Tank in carries.

They made clear improvements on the offensive line, which I think will be huge. They won 4 games last year. Vegas had them at 7.5 this year.

Liam Coen has been vocal about BTJ being the focus of the passing game and I am projecting accordingly with a 24.5% target share.

The tough part of projecting the Jags is what impact will oline have on Cohen’s offensive approach. I would like to know why you believe they made improvements in the oline. I have checked various sites oline grades and they universally have the Bucs oline graded in the top 10 and the Jags in the bottom 5 (FBG have the Bucs at 6 and the Jags at 31) If these ranks are accurate how does that change Cohen’s approach.

They added Robert Hainsey in FA, which should help tremendously. The Jaguars were particularly bad at run blocking last year and he should be a big improvement on paper. Their 2 draft picks also seem to grade out as huge upgrades, especially Milium who should see playing time sooner rather than later.

I also feel like The Jags have been one of the most poorly coached teams of Lawrence's tenure. I'm expecting the new coaching staff to have a high impact on the whole team.

Hainsey will know the offense, but he was the worst center in the game when he started for Tampa in 2023. He's the reason they drafted Barton in the first round. I wouldn't count on Hainsey to improve Jax' line much.

In terms of PPF grade for centers, last year Hainsey was 11th in run blocking, 4th in pass blocking, 10th overall. He's replacing Mitch Morse who graded out much worse.

 

[Grahamburn]

Jacksonville

The Jaguars had a down year last year, but made one of the better coaching changes of the offseason and a number of other improvements that have me thinking a return to fighting for a playoff spot might even be in the cards.

Liam Coen's Buccaneer's offense was one of the highest in the league in RB volume, particularly in the passing game. Figuring who is going to benefit from this is a challenge, however. It seems to be some sort of three way committee and now there are trade rumors surrounding Etienne. I'm confident in my total team RB projection of 435 carries, 1,956 yards, 13 TDs. As training camp proceeds, I'll tweak individual ratios. Right now Etienne is slightly leading over Tank in carries.

They made clear improvements on the offensive line, which I think will be huge. They won 4 games last year. Vegas had them at 7.5 this year.

Liam Coen has been vocal about BTJ being the focus of the passing game and I am projecting accordingly with a 24.5% target share.

The tough part of projecting the Jags is what impact will oline have on Cohen’s offensive approach. I would like to know why you believe they made improvements in the oline. I have checked various sites oline grades and they universally have the Bucs oline graded in the top 10 and the Jags in the bottom 5 (FBG have the Bucs at 6 and the Jags at 31) If these ranks are accurate how does that change Cohen’s approach.

They added Robert Hainsey in FA, which should help tremendously. The Jaguars were particularly bad at run blocking last year and he should be a big improvement on paper. Their 2 draft picks also seem to grade out as huge upgrades, especially Milium who should see playing time sooner rather than later.

I also feel like The Jags have been one of the most poorly coached teams of Lawrence's tenure. I'm expecting the new coaching staff to have a high impact on the whole team.

Hainsey will know the offense, but he was the worst center in the game when he started for Tampa in 2023. He's the reason they drafted Barton in the first round. I wouldn't count on Hainsey to improve Jax' line much.

In terms of PPF grade for centers, last year Hainsey was 11th in run blocking, 4th in pass blocking, 10th overall. He's replacing Mitch Morse who graded out much worse.

He started one game and played 8% of the snaps. Your data points will have more validity if you look at 2022-2023 when he was the full time starter.

 

[Scoresman]

Jacksonville

The Jaguars had a down year last year, but made one of the better coaching changes of the offseason and a number of other improvements that have me thinking a return to fighting for a playoff spot might even be in the cards.

Liam Coen's Buccaneer's offense was one of the highest in the league in RB volume, particularly in the passing game. Figuring who is going to benefit from this is a challenge, however. It seems to be some sort of three way committee and now there are trade rumors surrounding Etienne. I'm confident in my total team RB projection of 435 carries, 1,956 yards, 13 TDs. As training camp proceeds, I'll tweak individual ratios. Right now Etienne is slightly leading over Tank in carries.

They made clear improvements on the offensive line, which I think will be huge. They won 4 games last year. Vegas had them at 7.5 this year.

Liam Coen has been vocal about BTJ being the focus of the passing game and I am projecting accordingly with a 24.5% target share.

The tough part of projecting the Jags is what impact will oline have on Cohen’s offensive approach. I would like to know why you believe they made improvements in the oline. I have checked various sites oline grades and they universally have the Bucs oline graded in the top 10 and the Jags in the bottom 5 (FBG have the Bucs at 6 and the Jags at 31) If these ranks are accurate how does that change Cohen’s approach.

They added Robert Hainsey in FA, which should help tremendously. The Jaguars were particularly bad at run blocking last year and he should be a big improvement on paper. Their 2 draft picks also seem to grade out as huge upgrades, especially Milium who should see playing time sooner rather than later.

I also feel like The Jags have been one of the most poorly coached teams of Lawrence's tenure. I'm expecting the new coaching staff to have a high impact on the whole team.

Hainsey will know the offense, but he was the worst center in the game when he started for Tampa in 2023. He's the reason they drafted Barton in the first round. I wouldn't count on Hainsey to improve Jax' line much.

In terms of PPF grade for centers, last year Hainsey was 11th in run blocking, 4th in pass blocking, 10th overall. He's replacing Mitch Morse who graded out much worse.

He started one game and played 8% of the snaps. Your data points will have more validity if you look at 2022-2023 when he was the full time starter.

Thanks, this is what happens when paywalls pop up and I have to rely on third parties for this stuff.

 

[Grid71]

New Orleans

Derek Carr's loss is absolutely huge for this team. He was PFF's 4th graded passer last year.

Not much to say here. The OL did not improve much and should be a below average unit again.

The only bright spot remains Alvin Kamara and his PPR upside. But I do have two concerns here. 1) Will Moore bring the Tush Push over from Philly, cutting into goalline work, and 2) Moore's offenses have never ranked higher than 19th in terms of RB target share. That said, I dont think they are going to have much choice but to feed Kamara with the QBs they have currently.

Some interesting comments recently in the Alvin Kamara thread. Apparently RB get used far less by the new coaching staff. Worth a read.

Despite that, the Carrless QB room might be more inclined to check down. I don’t know enough about Spencer or Shough to know their preference. In my head I’d expect Johnson and Kamara to be peppered with targets.

 

[Scoresman]

New Orleans

Derek Carr's loss is absolutely huge for this team. He was PFF's 4th graded passer last year.

Not much to say here. The OL did not improve much and should be a below average unit again.

The only bright spot remains Alvin Kamara and his PPR upside. But I do have two concerns here. 1) Will Moore bring the Tush Push over from Philly, cutting into goalline work, and 2) Moore's offenses have never ranked higher than 19th in terms of RB target share. That said, I dont think they are going to have much choice but to feed Kamara with the QBs they have currently.

Some interesting comments recently in the Alvin Kamara thread. Apparently RB get used far less by the new coaching staff. Worth a read.

Despite that, the Carrless QB room might be more inclined to check down. I don’t know enough about Spencer or Shough to know their preference. In my head I’d expect Johnson and Kamara to be peppered with targets.

Yeah, I think they may have no choice but to check down with those QBs. I'm not reducing Kamara's projections based on it yet.

 

[travdogg]

New England

The Patriots had the worst offensive line in the league last year, and yet Drake Maye was still somewhat able to be alright. The OL was ranked no better than bottom 3 in every single category PFF grades. The additions they made to the line favor pass protection over run blocking, so this is good news for Maye, not so much for Rhamondre/Henderson. Also, the hiring of McDaniels should mean really good things for Maye.

The Patriots also have the easiest projected schedule in the league.

I know the O line was bad, but Antonio Gibson beat Rhamondre in many categories that PFF grades. That's just bad. I'm giving Rhamondre and Henderson an almost even share of splits, with Henderson getting more work receiving.

Gibson was quietly good last season. He was 2nd in the NFL in yards after contact per carry, and top-15 in both yards per route run, and % of runs over 15 yards.

The only other guys top-15 in all 3 of those last season were Gibbs, Cook, Conner, and Irving. Gibson had 538 yards last season and 469 were after contact. He averaged less than .6 yards before contact last year, and for comparisons sake Stevenson averaged 1 YBC last season, which speaks to OL being a much bigger issue than RB was.

Gibson is possibly still a factor in this backfield in my opinion. I could absolutely see this being a dreaded 3-man RBBC, or if not that, enough that it stays a pretty even split even if Stevenson or Henderson get injured.

 

[Scoresman]

New York Giants

Not much to talk about with the Giants. The offensive line is still bad, and they still have a tough schedule. The only player really worth drafting here is Nabers, and I did project a slight dip in his targets, only because I feel Wilson will distribute the ball a little more evenly. Nabers had a target share of 32.2% last year which is ridiculous.

I'm not trying too hard to project how many games Wilson and Dart will play, mainly because neither are draftable. I have about an even split right now.

Like most, I have Tyrone Tracy leading in carries, with Cam not far behind.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

New York Giants

Not much to talk about with the Giants. The offensive line is still bad, and they still have a tough schedule. The only player really worth drafting here is Nabers, and I did project a slight dip in his targets, only because I feel Wilson will distribute the ball a little more evenly. Nabers had a target share of 32.2% last year which is ridiculous.

I'm not trying too hard to project how many games Wilson and Dart will play, mainly because neither are draftable. I have about an even split right now.

Like most, I have Tyrone Tracy leading in carries, with Cam not far behind.

How good do you think their D will be for FF purposes?

 

[Scoresman]

New York Giants

Not much to talk about with the Giants. The offensive line is still bad, and they still have a tough schedule. The only player really worth drafting here is Nabers, and I did project a slight dip in his targets, only because I feel Wilson will distribute the ball a little more evenly. Nabers had a target share of 32.2% last year which is ridiculous.

I'm not trying too hard to project how many games Wilson and Dart will play, mainly because neither are draftable. I have about an even split right now.

Like most, I have Tyrone Tracy leading in carries, with Cam not far behind.

How good do you think their D will be for FF purposes?

Honestly not sure. I dont project defenses since I just stream 100%. That said, they seem to be average? They also have one of the toughest projected schedules.

 

[bryhamm]

 

[travdogg]

New Orleans

Derek Carr's loss is absolutely huge for this team. He was PFF's 4th graded passer last year.

Not much to say here. The OL did not improve much and should be a below average unit again.

The only bright spot remains Alvin Kamara and his PPR upside. But I do have two concerns here. 1) Will Moore bring the Tush Push over from Philly, cutting into goalline work, and 2) Moore's offenses have never ranked higher than 19th in terms of RB target share. That said, I dont think they are going to have much choice but to feed Kamara with the QBs they have currently.

In theory, the tush push is almost tailor made for Taysom Hill.

 

[Scoresman]

New York Jets

I'd have to check, but I'd be surprised if I projected a team with a greater change in pass:run ratio from last year to this year than the Jets. Going from over 60% passing to 49. Going from Aaron Rodgers to Justin Fields will do that to you.

Garrett Wilson should get his elite target share back now that Davante Adams is not there. Have him at over 28% share. But the lack of volume will be disappointing.

They appear to have a great O line on paper again. I'm hesitant to project any sort of improvement for the offense as a whole. Last year, Aaron Rodgers was the highest rated QB since Chad Pennington, and they still couldn't really find any consistency offensively.

2 stats about Fields from last year (10 games, 161 pass attempts)

• He had the highest rate of checkdown passes to RBs. This is great for Breece Hall.
• He had the highest rate of defenses stacking the box against them. This is a concern for Breece Hall.

 

[Scoresman]

Philadelphia

The Eagles threw the fewest number of passes last year at 448 attempts. Also towards the bottom of the league at red zone pass rate. They threw about 120 fewer passes last year and ran 110 more times than in 2023, and even with Barkley, that seems drastic. Everyone is expecting less production from Barkley this year so I expect this ratio to swing back a tiny bit.

I'm not expecting much in terms of game plan changes with the new OC hire. They are coming off a Superbowl win and they hired from within.

One thing to note, they are going from the third easiest schedule last season to top 5 most difficult this year. Vegas still has them at a very high team total of 11.5 wins.

Overall, I have the Eagles throwing a bit more, but not much change in total volume. Slightly less efficiency in the run game.

 

[Scoresman]

Pittsburgh

The signing of Rodgers came just in time for doing the Steelers' projections, but it also means a lot of the data I use for this process is obsolete. Rodgers will completely change how this offense runs, like how he did in NY last year.

The Jets threw the ball over 600 times last year with Rodgers. The Steelers threw it less than 500 times. I do worry about Arthur Smith's influence here and the two meshing well together. Rodgers has never had a season throwing for less than 525 passes. Smith has only had a QB throw that much once. Rodgers likes to have control over the offense and there were rumors last year that Russell Wilson and Arthur Smith clashed over this.

They lost one of the best Guards in the league and failed to make any real improvements to their line. Will still probably be average at best. Steelers fans are also apparently up in arms over the team keeping their inept o line coach.

Bottom line here is that I was ready to really project pain for the Steelers in 2025. This changed slightly with the signing of Rodgers, but the pieces he has to work with are not as good IMO as when he was a Jet. Worse offensive line, and worse receivers. Biggest question will be how Smith and Rodgers work together.

 

[cheese]

Minnesota

I'm pretty bullish on this Vikings passing game. McCarthy is being setup for success. The offensive line has been massively upgraded. Kevin McConnell has never ranked worse than 6th in passing yards and TDs while head coach.

The Vikings have one of the biggest swings in SoS. Last year they ended up with a top 10 easy schedule. This year, they are projected around 30th. This is reflected in their Vegas win total of only 8.5. This presents a bit of a concern about potential hiccups for McCarthy's growth, but I did notice that they open the season with the easiest part of their schedule.

Most projectors have the Vikings throwing 26-28 TDs which would be a pretty significant change from last year's 35, especially if you think there will be more garbage time with more projected losses. I'm at 30 right now and it seems about right if not a bit low.

Last year, the Vikings also drastically dropped their pass rate from the years before. They were consistently over 60%, last year 54.5% (adjusted for sacks). Aaron Jones coming aboard no doubt drove that a bit. It will be interesting to see if this continues with McCarthy, and may be dependent on how well he plays.

The one thing you can count on is that KOC will throw in the red zone. That is one of the stickiest trends YoY. If he never had a season with lower than 30 using Darnold, Cousins, and worse, he probably won't with JJM.

 

[cheese]

Arizona

Starting off with a relatively easy team to project. Very little roster turnover including returning all of their starting offensive line. They ran a little over 1,000 offensive plays last year and I'm projecting about the same.

They threw the ball at a much higher rate starting about midseason last year which was quite a turnaround. They ended up with an overall season pass/run rate similar to previous years, so I'm not reading too much into this yet.

Trey McBride had a crazy high target percentage last year of 27.1%. The question this year is if Harrison can have a better sophomore year and take some of these away. I settled on 26.1% for McBride and 23.8% for Harrison.

They were talking on the establish the run podcast about how bad Harrison's role was last year in terms of lack of designed easy catches for him. They played him in an exclusively downfield outside WR role and asked him to make contested catches all year. I actually think he played fine last year, but same offense, same QB, same OC, worries me that it's same role, which was more of a Rashid Shaheed role than a true alpha WR role.

 

[Scoresman]

Seattle

Not a great offensive line last year, but they made a ton of changes and on paper they mostly grade out average to above average. And with a new OL coach, there should be a slight improvement here.

The transition from Geno Smith to Darnold sounded like a wash to me at first. Even behind a bad line, Smith performed well enough. Darnold graded out better than Smith when under pressure last year, so there is reason to think this is a slight improvement even if the OL changes are a wash.

Need to talk about the Klint Kubiak hire. If you go back to the beginning of last year, remember how good the Saints offense looked for a few weeks? Kubiak was already getting HC buzz, but then NO got devastated with injuries and the offense collapsed, and that was the end of that. The Saints last year led the league with 26% of Targets going to RBs. Part of that is due to Kamara, but no reason to think Kubiak's style in this regard would change much with Walker/Charbonet. That said, Kubiak's offenses have generally passed less than expected, so I'm definitely lowering Seattle's overall pass rate a bit.