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Tim Tebow - 8.17.21 Waived By Jacksonville (2 Viewers)

I have to believe that Tebow will at least be tried out as a TD vulture inside the 5 yard line this year at least for the first few games, especially if Orton is starting (which I believe will happen).I think McDaniel needs to see what's possible with an extremely physically fit, virtually never injured, "star" - and by star, I mean an extremely popular player whether he's done anything in the NFL or not.Inside the 5 yard line, Tebow could basically run the exact same offense that Florida did which McDaniel is familiar with and the Broncos have the personnel to execute it. Whether it's a 1) handoff left/center/right to Moreno2) QB keeper to left/center/right by Tebow3) Shuffle pass to TE4) Rollout pass option to WR or keeper5) The awkward yet effective jump passor6) Tebow takes 3 steps back and drills it to a WR/TEFlorida's success rate in the last 4 years inside the 5 yard line has to be among the best in history, especially against the caliber of the defenses in the SEC.Another interesting topic to explore: Who are the most dominant TD vultures of all time?I know I rode Stacey Mack into the playoffs a while back (2001 or 2002) because of injuries to my other RBs. Perhaps Alstott would also be under consideration.
Bettis was a big time TD vulture for the first 5 games of '04, before he became the primary RB.I'll always remember his line from the first game of that season: 5 carries, 1 yard, 3 TDsHis overall numbers of the first 5 games: 19 carries, 63 yards, 7 TDs.
People were actually starting Moe Williams on their fantasy teams back in 2002 even though he only had 84 carries on the entire season. He had 10 TDs in his first 10 games, on around 50 total carries.
 
Interesting thread. I am among those who think that Tebow will be an average NFL QB at best. I think Denver wildy overpaid for him. I bet that most NFL teams had him rated as a 3rd - 5th rounder at best. His passing skills are below average by NFL standards, and with hard work he could become an average passer. If he runs the ball a lot in the NFL, he will get murdered.

He will not be a top flight NFL quaterback. I just wanted to go on the record, and, if I am wrong, I will come back here and eat crow. I am sure all the Tebow lovers will do exactly the same if I (and the other who share my view) turn out to be right. Sure they will. Right.

With all this talk of his great leadership (which does seem to be one of his top attributes), perhaps he'd make a good coach some day, but he seems more like the greedy-CEO type, evangelist or politician.

 
If he were a high 1st round QB I might agree with you, however he was the 25th.Here are the 1st round QB taken 12th or later since 1990:

Freeman - 17Flacco - 18Quinn - 22Rodgers - 24Campbell - 25Losman - 22Boller - 18Grossman - 22Ramsey - 32Pennington - 18McCown - 12Druckenmiller - 26Maddox - 25McGwire - 16Marinowich - 24
If I was saying he was worth a rookie 1st, I might agree with you; however, I was talking about a late 2nd rounder.Here is a list of players taken between picks 20 and 24 in my dynasty league over the last 3 years:
John BeckZach MillerChris HenryJames JonesDrew StantonDonnie AveryJ.T. O'SullivanTim HightowerKevin BossLimas SweedBernard ScottMohammad MassaquoiMario ManninghamBrian RobiskieMike Goodson
Both lists contain 15 players, but I would *FAR* prefer the set of QBs taken between picks 12 and 32 to the set of players drafted between rookie picks 20 and 24. Hell, Rodgers alone is worth more than every single one of those rookie picks COMBINED. Yeah, late first-round QBs have a terrible track record... but late second-round rookie picks have a worse record BY FAR.
With all this talk of his great leadership (which does seem to be one of his top attributes), perhaps he'd make a good coach some day, but he seems more like the greedy-CEO type, evangelist or politician.
Not really relevant to any discussion of his NFL future, but there is absolutely nothing greedy about Tim Tebow at all. Nothing political, either.
 
With all this talk of his great leadership (which does seem to be one of his top attributes), perhaps he'd make a good coach some day, but he seems more like the greedy-CEO type, evangelist or politician.
Wow...One thing to add to the Red Zone discussion above...UF actually struggled mightily in the RZ last season. I think the lack of a prototypical RB and some green WRs affected it...but Tebow had some issues there when teams started shutting down that shuffle pass to Hernandez.
 
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I doubt he has Rodger's success, although it is possible. SSOG brings up a good point above and it reminds me that when Rodgers was taken he was not exactly a hot commodity in fantasy. It seemed like a toss up whether SF would take Alex Smith or him, and then after they went with Smith Rodgers fell like a lead balloon. Of course, people wondered why. Then he was stuck behind Favre and sort of fell off the map. Anyone remember why Rodgers fell so far and what the negative on him was?

 
I doubt he has Rodger's success, although it is possible. SSOG brings up a good point above and it reminds me that when Rodgers was taken he was not exactly a hot commodity in fantasy. It seemed like a toss up whether SF would take Alex Smith or him, and then after they went with Smith Rodgers fell like a lead balloon. Of course, people wondered why. Then he was stuck behind Favre and sort of fell off the map. Anyone remember why Rodgers fell so far and what the negative on him was?
I think the popular argument was he came from a QB-friendly system at Cal. The 'Tedford Offense'. Same idea as the crazy numbers TTech offenses produces not showing a true idea of the QBs pro prospects. Might be wrong on this one, like to read his scouting reports.
 
az_prof said:
I doubt he has Rodger's success, although it is possible. SSOG brings up a good point above and it reminds me that when Rodgers was taken he was not exactly a hot commodity in fantasy. It seemed like a toss up whether SF would take Alex Smith or him, and then after they went with Smith Rodgers fell like a lead balloon. Of course, people wondered why. Then he was stuck behind Favre and sort of fell off the map. Anyone remember why Rodgers fell so far and what the negative on him was?
I don't think either QB was rated particularly highly; anyone who was looking QB in the first round was disappointed that Leinart didn't come out, so what was left probably got a bit more of a downgrade than it should have. I think, as with Clausen this year, teams are reluctant to take a QB high in the draft unless they have a specific need. (If they do have a specific need, they probably are too eager to take a QB high--witness the Niners and Alex Smith). There weren't a huge number of first-round teams needing a QB, and since Rodgers was not viewed as a sure-fire thing, he fell until a team that needed a backup wanted him. I actually felt Rodgers going to Green Bay was about as good a situation as he could have expected; I didn't think he was ready to get thrown to the wolves. He was a JC transfer, so he only played two years of real college ball. He also doesn't have great measurables; any QB who's not 6'3" or taller gets a notch taken off him by the numbers guys.I don't know if he would have succeeded in San Francisco, being expected to start right away on a bad team. The most obvious places for him to go would have been Detroit or Oakland, but both had just made deals for vets (Kerry Collins and Jon Kitna).
 
az_prof said:
I doubt he has Rodger's success, although it is possible.
He doesn't need to achieve Rodgers' success level to beat out almost every one of the names on the "late 2nd round draft pick" list. Even if you throw out Rodgers, I'd say Joe Flacco would still be the best name left on either list, and Josh Freeman would beat out 14 of the 15 "late 2nd rounders" (all but Zach Miller). Furthermore, Chad Pennington and Jason Campbell have both provided a handful of very solid QB2 seasons (with Pennington even finishing 10th once and Campbell with potential to keep producing)- I think either of those guys would be more valuable fantasy assets than the overwhelming majority of the guys on the "late 2nd rounder" list.Besides, part of the reason that the list looks bad is because it goes back to 1990. If we just ran a list of late first QBs since 2005 (the last 5 drafts), we'd get Rodgers, Flacco, Freeman, Campbell, and Quinn- that's a much better looking list, with 4 of the 5 already having been quality fantasy assets and the 5th having a faint glimmer of hope remaining that he might still one day be productive. If we ran the list from 2000 (last 10 drafts), we'd have those five plus Losman, Boller, Grossman, Ramsey, and Pennington- not great, but still worlds better than the list of late 2nd-round rookies. Including the '90s only adds McNown, Druckenmiller, Maddox, McGwire, and Marinovich- five unqualified busts- which makes the list look a lot worse... but really, why is a QB drafted in 1991 more relevant than a QB drafted in 1987? If you're going to go back 20 years, why stop there? If you add the '80s to the mix, you wind up adding Chris Miller, Jim Harbaugh, Jim Kelley, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino, Marc Wilson, and Mark Malone... every single one of whom was more productive than the average late second-round rookie pick (at worst, each of those guys had 3 seasons of quality fantasy QB2 production, and all of them had NFL careers of at least a half dozen years). In other words, 1990 is the perfect cutoff if you're trying to make a list of late-first QBs look as bad as you possibly can... and even that still can't make the list of late first-round QBs look any worse than the list of late 2nd-round rookie picks.Which is the point I'm trying to make. Even if you don't think that Tim Tebow will ever be any good, he's still a much smarter selection at the end of the 2nd round or the beginning of the 3rd than any of the other dross that you have to choose from.
 
gump said:
Disc Shark said:
With all this talk of his great leadership (which does seem to be one of his top attributes), perhaps he'd make a good coach some day, but he seems more like the greedy-CEO type, evangelist or politician.
Wow...One thing to add to the Red Zone discussion above...UF actually struggled mightily in the RZ last season. I think the lack of a prototypical RB and some green WRs affected it...but Tebow had some issues there when teams started shutting down that shuffle pass to Hernandez.
UF struggled in the redzone last season, not at the goalline. There's a big difference. UF's drives tended to stall around the 15 last year, largely because they could no longer stretch the field from there and they lacked any offensive player that could do anything else, so teams just focused solely on Tebow. UF didn't have that problem either of the two years prior when they had at least 1 or 2 other guys that people had to think about.Also, Steve Adazzio took over as OC last year and he's the worst OC I've ever seen. I'm convinced he'd keep running Tebow smash even if the other team had 11 guys in the box and no one lined up on any of the WRs.
 
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SSOG, you make a decent point about Tebow being a good shot in the late second round, but...there are some decent players in that list of late second round rookie picks. Flacco is a very good qB and I like him to improve this year with another year of experience and a new WR weapon. Zach Miller could easily be a top 5 TE this year and is young. Then you have some guys who could still be really good but we don't know yet: Avery, James Jones, and Massaquoi, plus Freeman.

If I needed a QB project I could see taking Tebow in late second. I didn't and passed...although much to my chagrin he fell to 3.12 and I had to take him there. But yeah, he has as much chance of success as any of the WRs or TEs who were taken in the late second of the rookie draft. He convinced one GM and HC to pick him in the first round, so that means something. I just wish it wasn't Josh McDummmmmm. LOL. Well, if he is right about Tebow his career is going to last a while, so if nothing else, he is motivated to make sure Tebow has every chance to succeed. Because if Tebow fails, McD goes down with him.

 
SSOG said:
Here is a list of players taken between picks 20 and 24 in my dynasty league over the last 3 years:

John BeckZach MillerChris HenryJames JonesDrew StantonDonnie AveryJ.T. O'SullivanTim HightowerKevin BossLimas SweedBernard ScottMohammad MassaquoiMario ManninghamBrian RobiskieMike Goodson
Both lists contain 15 players, but I would *FAR* prefer the set of QBs taken between picks 12 and 32 to the set of players drafted between rookie picks 20 and 24. Hell, Rodgers alone is worth more than every single one of those rookie picks COMBINED. Yeah, late first-round QBs have a terrible track record... but late second-round rookie picks have a worse record BY FAR.
The NFL obviously includes IDPs and OL, some of the players taken in mine between 20-24Josh FreemanBrandon PettigrewAustin CollieBrian CushingPatrick ChungEddie RoyalDeSean JacksonKenny PhillipsJamaal CharlesJoe FlaccoJason HillJacoby JonesPaul PoslusznyDrew StantonZach MillerI'm taking the FF picks.Now what are we talking about? :unsure:
 
Actually, I think my post suggests more of the "middle" approach than you are thinking. My post doesn't imply that I think he is going to be a bust of Leafian proportions, I just don't think he will be very good, because I think his passing skills are below average for the NFL, and he does not offer special talent running the ball, like Michael Vick at one point did. As such, I'm not going to worry about him for fantasy purposes. I'd consider drafting/acquiring him if the price was right, but I'm sure it won't be any time soon, or possibly ever. I could see him having a career similar to Kyle Orton (in terms of overall success; I am not saying that they are similar in terms of strengths/weaknesses), which is not exactly a bust, but it would leave a lot of people in Denver (and this thread) disappointed. We really shouldn't be even referring to an "Era" for Tebow, especially since, contrary to the title of this thread, it won't be beginning for some time. We're seeing a lot of the typical shark pool fancy play mentality, where people like to go out on a perceived limb and make bold statements or predictions with little to support them for the purposes of seeming "ahead of the curve" and contrarian, hoping to get an edge on their competition.

Ryan Leaf <-> my assessment <-> Revolutionize

______________^ middle ^________________
Tebow's getting drafted in the 3rd round in a lot of rookie drafts. That's just stupid. The dude's a first round QB, whether you dig him or not. Lots of people let Josh Freeman slip last year because they weren't really feeling him, and it looks like that's a mistake in hindsight, too. If nothing else, pedigree like that makes Tebow worth a late second round draft pick. And again, that's an "if nothing else".As for whether the Tebow "era" will be beginning soon or late... I think Tebow's going to be seeing the field a lot earlier than most in this thread expect. I think he'll be getting package plays immediately, and I think he'll be starting next year.
If you're only advocating Tebow being a solid 3rd round selection in Dynasty drafts, then I'm not really going to argue with you. Depending on whats left on the board, that may be a totally fine pick. Then again, I've seen him go much earlier, and I've also seen things like Hardesty lasting into late round 2. It all depends. My posts are more of a counter to some of the people in here describing him as a surefire stud, hall of famer, revolutionary, etc. That kind of thinking is that I think is ridiculous. That is the "fancy play" that I have been speaking of.And to your last point: If you're even talking about a QB being used in packages like that, then I'm pretty comfortable writing him off as a real threat to be an elite NFL/Fantasy QB. When's the last time you saw a QB used in goal line packages or whatever, prior to taking a starting job... and he ended up being a legit, successful QB, let alone an elite one? When's the last time a rookie QB played the same role as a Jerome Bettis '04 or a Zack Crockett '02 ? Oh, wait, I forgot; Tebow is supposed to revolutionize the QB position. Well, good luck with that, but I'm having a hard time holding my breath on that one. I tend to want my stud QBs to be elite in the area of throwing the ball, not in the area of breaking tackles at the goal line...

 
He convinced one GM and HC to pick him in the first round, so that means something. I just wish it wasn't Josh McDummmmmm. LOL. Well, if he is right about Tebow his career is going to last a while, so if nothing else, he is motivated to make sure Tebow has every chance to succeed. Because if Tebow fails, McD goes down with him.
Really? The fact that Tebow gets to work with McDaniels everyday is a significant boost to his value IMO. McDaniels has done very questionable things since coming to Denver, but he has a good track record when it comes to developing QBs. Brady, Cassel, and Orton all had their best seasons with him as OC or HC. All of them were considered "marginal" talents at one point or another as well.Everyone points to the moves he's made with Cutler and Marshall, and now Tebow and Thomas, and I agree they are questionable, but at least you can see his train of thought. (But the worst move he's made so far in Denver was getting rid of DC Mike Nolan).It could actually be that McDaniels gets fired in a season or two, but Tebow develops into a nice QB because of the time he spend learning with McDaniels early in his career. I can't think of a better coach for Tebow at this stage of his career.
 
...

And to your last point: If you're even talking about a QB being used in packages like that, then I'm pretty comfortable writing him off as a real threat to be an elite NFL/Fantasy QB. When's the last time you saw a QB used in goal line packages or whatever, prior to taking a starting job... and he ended up being a legit, successful QB, let alone an elite one? When's the last time a rookie QB played the same role as a Jerome Bettis '04 or a Zack Crockett '02 ? Oh, wait, I forgot; Tebow is supposed to revolutionize the QB position. Well, good luck with that, but I'm having a hard time holding my breath on that one. I tend to want my stud QBs to be elite in the area of throwing the ball, not in the area of breaking tackles at the goal line...
Indeed if anybody had insisted that Tebow was an elite dropback passer in the ilk of Peyton Manning, then I wouldn't agree.But then again, the Dolphins rolled out the Wildcat offense that everyone laughed at and said wouldn't work and then watched Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams run past them. The point is that someone in the NFL created a new offense from an old idea and had a good level of success.

No one knows if Tebow running goal line packages is going to work or not but I think Denver is going to try it and it'll be interesting to see if it's successful. No one knows if Denver is going to try to run the Urban Meyer offense (full or part time) but it'll be interesting to watch.

The point of an NFL game is to win; the point of FFL is to win, no matter how unconventional the position player is. If Denver starts Tebow and he's somehow able to average 1 throwing TD, 1 rushing TD, 200 passing yards and 40 rushing yards per game, that's going to net me about 20 points per game (in my scoring scheme). I personally wouldn't give a dang if he was conventional or not.

 
destro said:
If you're only advocating Tebow being a solid 3rd round selection in Dynasty drafts, then I'm not really going to argue with you. Depending on whats left on the board, that may be a totally fine pick. Then again, I've seen him go much earlier, and I've also seen things like Hardesty lasting into late round 2. It all depends. My posts are more of a counter to some of the people in here describing him as a surefire stud, hall of famer, revolutionary, etc. That kind of thinking is that I think is ridiculous. That is the "fancy play" that I have been speaking of.

And to your last point: If you're even talking about a QB being used in packages like that, then I'm pretty comfortable writing him off as a real threat to be an elite NFL/Fantasy QB. When's the last time you saw a QB used in goal line packages or whatever, prior to taking a starting job... and he ended up being a legit, successful QB, let alone an elite one? When's the last time a rookie QB played the same role as a Jerome Bettis '04 or a Zack Crockett '02 ? Oh, wait, I forgot; Tebow is supposed to revolutionize the QB position. Well, good luck with that, but I'm having a hard time holding my breath on that one. I tend to want my stud QBs to be elite in the area of throwing the ball, not in the area of breaking tackles at the goal line...
Actually, I was advocating Tebow as a no-brainer selection late in the 2nd round, and a possible selection even before that depending on how you feel about him, your league's scoring, and your team's makeup. I agree that he probably shouldn't be going in the first round no matter what, in large part because there is a surplus of quality QBs now, which suppresses the demand, which reduces the value. It's never been cheaper in fantasy history to acquire a 4,000 yard passer, which in turn means you shouldn't be spending as much on a late first-round project QB.As for "revolutionizing the position"... I ignore anyone who ever says "this player is so unique he's going to revolutionize the position". Well, which is it? Is he unique, which means he can do things that no one else can't? Or is he going to revolutionize the position, which means he's going to do things that everyone else is going to start doing? Personally, I fall on the "Tebow is unique" side of the spectrum. He'll never revolutionize anything in the NFL, because there isn't going to be any more Tim Tebow's entering the league any time soon. With that said, I think your whole "if he's used in packages, he's going to be mediocre" argument is terribly misguided. What makes Tebow unique (and therefore incapable of revolutionizing anything) is that he has as much power as NFL-caliber offensive linemen and fullbacks. His team is capable of utilizing that asset in a way that no QB has been used before. That doesn't mean that Tebow is doomed to fail because no QB has been used that way before... it means that Tebow possesses an attribute that no QB has possessed before.

Think of it this way: no QB has ever been used as a short-yardage runner before... but no QB has ever set the SEC record for rushing TDs before. I think if we saw a lot more players entering the league with 50+ rushing TDs, we'd see a lot more players being used as situational short-yardage rushers. That's not a comment on Tim Tebow's future, it's a comment on the types of players who have preceded Tim Tebow. After all, I can't think of any players at the college level who were backups with certain packages of plays who then went on to become quality players... except for Tim Tebow.

 
CravenM said:
The point of an NFL game is to win; the point of FFL is to win, no matter how unconventional the position player is. If Denver starts Tebow and he's somehow able to average 1 throwing TD, 1 rushing TD, 200 passing yards and 40 rushing yards per game, that's going to net me about 20 points per game (in my scoring scheme). I personally wouldn't give a dang if he was conventional or not.
Uh, I don't think anyone really needed this lesson. I'm sure that we were all aware that points = good, and I don't think anyone really cares where they come from. Obviously, I just don't think he's capable of averaging something like 200/40/1/1. If I did think that was somehow a likely possibility for Tebow, then I would have a very different opinion on his prospects in the NFL.
Actually, I was advocating Tebow as a no-brainer selection late in the 2nd round, and a possible selection even before that depending on how you feel about him, your league's scoring, and your team's makeup. I agree that he probably shouldn't be going in the first round no matter what, in large part because there is a surplus of quality QBs now, which suppresses the demand, which reduces the value. It's never been cheaper in fantasy history to acquire a 4,000 yard passer, which in turn means you shouldn't be spending as much on a late first-round project QB.
Based on what I've seen so far in some dynasty drafts, I disagree about him being a clear 2nd rounder, but I don't think we're that far off. I would consider taking him in the 3rd, but I'm not optimistic about him ever being someone I start regularly in a 12 team league. He's a flier, to me, at best. I'd rather take a 2nd round flier on a WR/RB than a QB, for the exact the reasons you described. In one dynasty league, I have 3 QBs inside the top 15. That's not a brag, because so do like 3 other teams. The point is that I have 3 of the top 15, and that top 15 is about as good as the top 15 QBs have ever been in NFL history. Why bother with project QBs who don't seem to have great passing talents? There isn't a huge difference between the 2nd or 3rd round, though, so I don't feel like yours is a crazy opinion.
As for "revolutionizing the position"... I ignore anyone who ever says "this player is so unique he's going to revolutionize the position". Well, which is it? Is he unique, which means he can do things that no one else can't? Or is he going to revolutionize the position, which means he's going to do things that everyone else is going to start doing? Personally, I fall on the "Tebow is unique" side of the spectrum. He'll never revolutionize anything in the NFL, because there isn't going to be any more Tim Tebow's entering the league any time soon. With that said, I think your whole "if he's used in packages, he's going to be mediocre" argument is terribly misguided. What makes Tebow unique (and therefore incapable of revolutionizing anything) is that he has as much power as NFL-caliber offensive linemen and fullbacks. His team is capable of utilizing that asset in a way that no QB has been used before. That doesn't mean that Tebow is doomed to fail because no QB has been used that way before... it means that Tebow possesses an attribute that no QB has possessed before.
Really? He's as powerful as an offensive lineman? How exactly do you define "powerful"? This is where I think you're getting a little carried away. It's probably not worth it to argue this much more. I'll leave it at this:

I think it is unwise to bet much on a QB who has below average passing skills (and that includes reading defenses). I think Tebow fits that description. Further, I think it is far beyond unwise to say that such a QB is a lock to be a stud or hall of famer.

 
Really? He's as powerful as an offensive lineman? How exactly do you define "powerful"? This is where I think you're getting a little carried away.
Tim Tebow bench presses more than his former teammate, Maurkice Pouncey, who was just selected in the first round by the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's freak-of-nature strong. Even if you're getting nothing but 5 yard plunges, you don't set the SEC TD record unless you've got some serious leg drive.
 
What did you see from Tim Tebow on tape and were you surprised the Broncos made the bold move to get back into the first round to snag him?

"On film, there is very little in Tebow's game that projects well at this point to the NFL. I could never draft a quarterback in the first round who does not show on tape the skill set and physical attributes that are demanded in the NFL.

"Number one, he has questionable and limited arm strength with a slow and ponderous delivery. Number two, in college he did not throw with timing or anticipation because the offense that he was in did not require it. In the NFL, there are certain throws in certain situations that necessitate that the ball is delivered before his receiver makes his break. He wasn't asked to do that at Florida. Thirdly, pocket movement in the NFL is far more important than running. Pocket movement is the ability to move within the confines of an area about the size of a boxing ring while at the same time maintaining your downfield focus so you can deliver the football. Tebow did not exhibit that trait in college, probably because he was a runner. Nobody is a great NFL quarterback because of the way that they run."
Cosell on Tebow
 
What did you see from Tim Tebow on tape and were you surprised the Broncos made the bold move to get back into the first round to snag him?

"On film, there is very little in Tebow's game that projects well at this point to the NFL. I could never draft a quarterback in the first round who does not show on tape the skill set and physical attributes that are demanded in the NFL.

"Number one, he has questionable and limited arm strength with a slow and ponderous delivery. Number two, in college he did not throw with timing or anticipation because the offense that he was in did not require it. In the NFL, there are certain throws in certain situations that necessitate that the ball is delivered before his receiver makes his break. He wasn't asked to do that at Florida. Thirdly, pocket movement in the NFL is far more important than running. Pocket movement is the ability to move within the confines of an area about the size of a boxing ring while at the same time maintaining your downfield focus so you can deliver the football. Tebow did not exhibit that trait in college, probably because he was a runner. Nobody is a great NFL quarterback because of the way that they run."
Cosell on Tebow
Sounds a ton like something I've been harping on "mobility" versus "maneuverability."
 
I don't see the Tebow-as-goal-line-QB plan as a very likely scenario - certainly not often enough to make him fantasy relevent.

Inside the 1 yard line, where you might just give up passing all together and dare the defense to stop a sure run, I think the majority of plays will still go to a RB whose primary job in life is to hit a hole with the ball and whose momentum is toward the line, not away from it like a QB's (whose instant forward momentum can't hit any place other than one side of the center or the other, making the surge completely predictable). A quick QB can bootleg a gap or two, or even outside, but only if the defense reacts to play action on the belief (from your team pattern and practice) that the RB will be getting the ball. And I don't think offensive plays from inside the 1 come up all that often (although I admit to not counting those closely before asserting this rarity). For the unpredictability which might make a QB likely to score from inside the one, I think you have to use RBs to score in most of those situations. If Tebow gets a shot to score on maybe a third of the Bronco plays from inside the 1 ... might mean a small handful of attempts per year? This isn't going to make TT a fantasy scorer.

From outside the 1, and more as you get further, you have to keep the defense somewhat spread with passing. And about the first time, certainly the second, time TT throws an interception from the 3 or 4 yard line, this experiment would be over. I think a slowish release and less than pinpoint accurracy are more critical down there than anywhere - since the receivers don't have the time or space to run and get open. Tebow can't come in often if that guarantees the Broncos won't pass, and I don't think they will trust him to pass much down there any time soon.

I understand the 'TT is a new creature' analysis. I just think he needs to at least be able to pass enough to keep the defenses honest in order to be useful as a red zone QB, and it would be a huge risk in a critical situation to have him throwing. And the fantasy usefulness of a guy who carries the ball maybe 1/3 of the times Denver runs a play from inside the 1 ... IMO not that much.

 
What did you see from Tim Tebow on tape and were you surprised the Broncos made the bold move to get back into the first round to snag him?

"On film, there is very little in Tebow's game that projects well at this point to the NFL. I could never draft a quarterback in the first round who does not show on tape the skill set and physical attributes that are demanded in the NFL.

"Number one, he has questionable and limited arm strength with a slow and ponderous delivery. Number two, in college he did not throw with timing or anticipation because the offense that he was in did not require it. In the NFL, there are certain throws in certain situations that necessitate that the ball is delivered before his receiver makes his break. He wasn't asked to do that at Florida. Thirdly, pocket movement in the NFL is far more important than running. Pocket movement is the ability to move within the confines of an area about the size of a boxing ring while at the same time maintaining your downfield focus so you can deliver the football. Tebow did not exhibit that trait in college, probably because he was a runner. Nobody is a great NFL quarterback because of the way that they run."
Cosell on Tebow
Sounds a ton like something I've been harping on "mobility" versus "maneuverability."
The people who don't see these things have man love blinders on and fall back to the he's a winner puke.
 
SSOG, I wonder about late first round picks though. Does anyone have a list of QBs taken in the 1st round after pick 12?
Just scroll up a few posts.Freeman - 17

Flacco - 18

Quinn - 22

Rodgers - 24

Campbell - 25

Losman - 22

Boller - 18

Grossman - 22

Ramsey - 32

Pennington - 18

McCown - 12

Druckenmiller - 26

Maddox - 25

McGwire - 16

Marinowich - 24
Rodgers and Flacco certainly stand out.
 
positive tebow article, survey of former running QBs (including HoFers like tarkenton & steve young) weigh in on his prospects...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5236931
Great article. Thanks for posting. Personally, I put more stock in what Tarkington, Young, Harbough, and Stewart say than Mel Kiper. I was not a believer and still want to see the goods on the field in the NFL, but I am optimistic and I think a lot of people who took Clausen or McCoy could end up regretting it.The ability to run out of trouble for a QB is a great ability to have. As the QBs in the story point out, it keeps drives alive. It also keeps the defense off balance--they have to be cautious about how they rush the passer, careful to keep all running lanes contained. That can slow down the pass rush and make it more passive. A few thirty yard runs on scrambles really affects the pass rush. It was also interesting to read Steve Young and Tarkington say that his throwing motion is not a big deal.

 
positive tebow article, survey of former running QBs (including HoFers like tarkenton & steve young) weigh in on his prospects...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5236931
Great article. Thanks for posting. Personally, I put more stock in what Tarkington, Young, Harbough, and Stewart say than Mel Kiper. I was not a believer and still want to see the goods on the field in the NFL, but I am optimistic and I think a lot of people who took Clausen or McCoy could end up regretting it.The ability to run out of trouble for a QB is a great ability to have. As the QBs in the story point out, it keeps drives alive. It also keeps the defense off balance--they have to be cautious about how they rush the passer, careful to keep all running lanes contained. That can slow down the pass rush and make it more passive. A few thirty yard runs on scrambles really affects the pass rush. It was also interesting to read Steve Young and Tarkington say that his throwing motion is not a big deal.
thanx, az prof...probably VY has been mentioned...

imo, a good example of a "running QB" who has enjoyed relative success despite an unconventional passing motion/non-prototypical passing skills entering the league... also imo, he still has considerable upside as they surround him with upgraded passing weapons, and may not continue to feed chris johnson 350+ carries a season...

only tebow reportedly has vastly superior work ethic, football IQ and intangibles...

demaryius thomas, eddie royal, eric decker, knowshon moreno could be some nice receiving weapons in the near future... mcdaniel is also rebuilding the OL in his image (got probable starting OG beadle and center walton in draft)... TEN's strong OL has no doubt helped VY's development...

i am in the camp that thinks he starts at some point in 2011 (if there is football)... agree i would rather have than clausen (moore underrated) and mccoy (unclear if he is more than backup caliber)...

* i get that running ability not as important TO BEING A PASSER as pocket movement ability (marino had eyes in the back of his head)... BUT, if he can be coached up on the passing side, no question scrambling ability can put pressure on defenses... see VY, who is faster, tebow stronger (& mayock pointed out that tebow has elite quicks & COD, his three cone time among best CORNER BACKS)...

running QB hard to defend, if you don't put a spy on him he can gouge defenses as he is effectively unguarded, if you do, less defenders to pass against... the key is for running QBs to keep their head up and eyes downfield WHILE they are running around, and to think pass first, run second - only if no one is open & things break down...

his development can be facilitated by emphasizing high percentage pass plays initially (in the flat to moreno, quick hitters to royal in slot, decker over the middle, etc.)... timing is arguably instinctive, so how he will fare on routes he wasn't asked to do at florida are the big question in my mind (i think steve young alluded to this)... that might be hard to coach up.

BTW, i don't know if he will ever be great, but i think he will start and is underrated with upside due to his phenomenal intangibles... the question is relative value... in an initial dynasty startup, you could get him as a possible (likely, imo) future starting QB3, and some teams may not get two starters (in a 14-16 teamer)...

 
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SSOG, I wonder about late first round picks though. Does anyone have a list of QBs taken in the 1st round after pick 12?
Just scroll up a few posts.Freeman - 17

Flacco - 18

Quinn - 22

Rodgers - 24

Campbell - 25

Losman - 22

Boller - 18

Grossman - 22

Ramsey - 32

Pennington - 18

McCown - 12

Druckenmiller - 26

Maddox - 25

McGwire - 16

Marinowich - 24
Rodgers and Flacco certainly stand out.
Jury's still out on Freeman, but he's looked good so far. Also, don't forget that Pennington was way better even than Joe Flacco early on, and even after injuries derailed his career he was still a very good QB.
 
Tebow Watch: Coach sees progress

By Bill Williamson

The Colorado Springs Gazette reported that Denver rookie quarterback Tim Tebow struggled and was somewhat wild at times during organized team activities Friday.

The team has its mandatory, team-wide minicamp next week, so it will be interesting to see how Tebow does in his first full-fledged practices.

Despite his Friday struggles, Denver coach Josh McDaniels, the man who hitched his career to Tebow, believes the rookie is making strong progress.

"He's ahead,” McDaniels said. “I think that's very fair to say that. I also think he's working on some things in his game. A lot of our veteran players that weren't out there in practice, there's things that they have to clean up and work on also, but like I said I think we've got a competitive situation, which I think is great for that group of players. I think we have a lot of competitive situations on our roster right now, and I think that's really making players better. They're making one another better because you can tell that they notice the competition, and they know that there's some people right behind them that are capable players. We've got a long way to go, a lot of practices left between now and the end of August, and we'll see what happens. Certainly that's where it's at right now.

"Tim is progressing, I would say well, in terms of understanding what the offense is asking him to do. There's no issues in terms of what he can do calling the plays in the huddle or communicating with his teammates in terms of what he wants from them. Today was a day where he and Brady (Quinn) obviously got a little bit more action in the huddle and got to do some things that they needed to do over from days prior. Right now, until you understand exactly what's going on on every play, until you have your head and eyes in the right place on every snap as a quarterback, playing in our system or any other system at this level, it's hard to consistently look the right way. I think that's fair to say for every player at any position. He's no different. There's certainly a bunch of good plays and then there's some other ones where we've got to work hard to get him right. That's what we're doing and that's what he's doing."

Asked if he is worried about Tebow’s arm strength and his mechanics (which were major pre-draft dings on Tebow), McDaniels quickly answered with this: "Fine. No issues. None at all in terms of his arm strength, velocity, anything like that. Nothing."

Tebow, who caused waves Friday with a new look, (Both McDaniels and Tebow sporting beards. Josh said it was his "OTA beard." Tebow said his was a result of "laziness." Fair enough.) is getting more repetitions now that second-year quarterback Tom Brandstater has been released. Tebow is the No. 3 quarterback behind starter Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn.

Yes, the former Florida Gators star is the most talked about third-string player in sports. The fascination is stunning.

ESPN.com’s Page 2 has a colorful look at Tebow’s foray into the trading card world.

The Tebow-memorabilia craze is getting out of control. Thanks to 18to88.com for pointing out this website, hawking products combining Tebow’s college and NFL worlds.

You couldn't make it up.

 
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Now that my rookie draft is over and I targetted and got Tebow, count me in on the camp that believes in this guy and will look forward to seeing his success continue into the NFL.

 
Tim Tebow being babied at Broncos practices

Jun

8

6/8/2010 4:36:54 PM | More

According to Mike Klis of the Denver Post, watching Tim Tebow in practice is kind of like watching Carmelo Anthony shoot free throws. It's nice and all, but there are so many other elements about their game not on exhibit.

For Tim Tebow — the Broncos’ prized rookie quarterback — practice is so scripted, his game seems stifled. Here’s the play, here’s the assignment, find the “mike” linebacker, recognize the blitzer, there’s the checkdown receiver and — yawn — run the play. Necessary fundamentals, no doubt. But Tebow came to Denver as the ultimate unscripted quarterback. What makes him special is when the pocket collapses, the receivers are covered and the script is ripped to pieces. “You can’t go out and practice — hey, guys, miss the protection on the right side on this play so we can see how he reacts,” coach Josh McDaniels said Monday. “We want him to be as solid as we can get him to be playing in our offense without having to do that stuff. “And then you put him in a game situation and the play breaks down and they can’t tackle him, or they can’t chase him or they can’t catch him and now all of a sudden we buy ourselves four or five extra seconds in the pocket. Those are some plays we’re going to see in the game, but sometimes we’re not going to see in practice.

”Everyone in Denver has asked: How does Tebow look? There's only one answer: Don't know till the game starts.

 
An excellent Tebow article by Peter King

...

Maybe Tebow plays this year, maybe he doesn't. Most likely he'll become fluent in a package of goal line, short-yardage and red zone plays and run it a few snaps a game. Orton and Quinn are significantly further along in the offense (Brandstater was cut last Friday), and McDaniels has too much on the line to experiment with Tebow as a starter. After a promising 6--0 start last year the Broncos lost eight of 10, and in the off-season they unloaded the talented but troublesome Marshall.

Still, Tebow is brimming with a quiet confidence about his NFL prospects, even though he knows he's far from the player Denver thinks he can be. McDaniels is befuddled at those around the game who think Tebow's an NFL disaster waiting to happen. Way too high at 25th. Mechanics will never be right. Can't remake a quarterback in one off-season. McDaniels got suckered by the kid's Eagle Scout demeanor.

"Actually, I love that," said Tebow after his throwing session, leaning against the wall across from the team meeting room. His left arm, from the forearm to the nape of his neck, was mummified in ice, wrapped in a dozen ace bandages. "I think we both love it. It's a little bit of us against the world. It will be wonderful when I prove him right."

Growing up in Jacksonville, Tebow had a poster on the wall in his bedroom that read HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT DOESN'T WORK HARD. For the short term, he and his teammates are following that motto as they prepare for the 2010 season. For the long term the Broncos' success—and McDaniels's fate—will be tied to whether hard work can turn Tebow into an elite quarterback. The NFL is skeptical. The Broncos are not.
 
An excellent Tebow article by Peter King
Peter King is a corporate shill putting out fluff pieces for the masses and he is going to cater to the popular opinion. Lost respect for his opinion long time ago. He holds his finger up to the wind and checks the moisture. Really now, this is the response to the link I provided? Cmon man, please try harder.
 
An excellent Tebow article by Peter King

...

Maybe Tebow plays this year, maybe he doesn't. Most likely he'll become fluent in a package of goal line, short-yardage and red zone plays and run it a few snaps a game. Orton and Quinn are significantly further along in the offense (Brandstater was cut last Friday), and McDaniels has too much on the line to experiment with Tebow as a starter. After a promising 6--0 start last year the Broncos lost eight of 10, and in the off-season they unloaded the talented but troublesome Marshall.

Still, Tebow is brimming with a quiet confidence about his NFL prospects, even though he knows he's far from the player Denver thinks he can be. McDaniels is befuddled at those around the game who think Tebow's an NFL disaster waiting to happen. Way too high at 25th. Mechanics will never be right. Can't remake a quarterback in one off-season. McDaniels got suckered by the kid's Eagle Scout demeanor.

"Actually, I love that," said Tebow after his throwing session, leaning against the wall across from the team meeting room. His left arm, from the forearm to the nape of his neck, was mummified in ice, wrapped in a dozen ace bandages. "I think we both love it. It's a little bit of us against the world. It will be wonderful when I prove him right."

Growing up in Jacksonville, Tebow had a poster on the wall in his bedroom that read HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT DOESN'T WORK HARD. For the short term, he and his teammates are following that motto as they prepare for the 2010 season. For the long term the Broncos' success—and McDaniels's fate—will be tied to whether hard work can turn Tebow into an elite quarterback. The NFL is skeptical. The Broncos are not.
That was a great article thanks for sharing!
 
An excellent Tebow article by Peter King
Peter King is a corporate shill putting out fluff pieces for the masses and he is going to cater to the popular opinion. Lost respect for his opinion long time ago. He holds his finger up to the wind and checks the moisture. Really now, this is the response to the link I provided? Cmon man, please try harder.
Fluff piece or not it shows behind the scenes stuff that you can't just make up. It has quotes and direct things that are going on. Did you even read the article!?
 
Stay classy Moleculo. Call out someone for making up a title and not providing a link. Then get shown up for it and then call into question a rival team fan's literacy. Nice job!

:thumbdown:

 
Does Tebow enter week 1 as the back up?

I am assuming Orton is a lock to start week 1 barring some type of drastic turn of events like an injury or something. But will Tebow pass Quinn on the depth chart and take over the number 2 role?

Thoughts?

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Does Tebow enter week 1 as the back up? I am assuming Orton is a lock to start week 1 barring some type of drastic turn of events like an injury or something. But will Tebow pass Quinn on the depth chart and take over the number 2 role?Thoughts?
This is how I think it goes....Orton is the starterTebow is listed as gameday #2 to keep him active for short-yardage, wildcat, gimmick stuffQuinn is inactive but listed as emergency backup so if Orton is hurt during the game, he can enter as the "every down" QB while still allowing Tebow to be #2 wildcat/gimmick QB
 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Does Tebow enter week 1 as the back up? I am assuming Orton is a lock to start week 1 barring some type of drastic turn of events like an injury or something. But will Tebow pass Quinn on the depth chart and take over the number 2 role?Thoughts?
This is how I think it goes....Orton is the starterTebow is listed as gameday #2 to keep him active for short-yardage, wildcat, gimmick stuffQuinn is inactive but listed as emergency backup so if Orton is hurt during the game, he can enter as the "every down" QB while still allowing Tebow to be #2 wildcat/gimmick QB
If Quinn is activated as the emergency QB if Orton was to be hurt then Tebow can't go back in though right?
 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Does Tebow enter week 1 as the back up? I am assuming Orton is a lock to start week 1 barring some type of drastic turn of events like an injury or something. But will Tebow pass Quinn on the depth chart and take over the number 2 role?Thoughts?
This is how I think it goes....Orton is the starterTebow is listed as gameday #2 to keep him active for short-yardage, wildcat, gimmick stuffQuinn is inactive but listed as emergency backup so if Orton is hurt during the game, he can enter as the "every down" QB while still allowing Tebow to be #2 wildcat/gimmick QB
If Quinn is activated as the emergency QB if Orton was to be hurt then Tebow can't go back in though right?
I don't think that's the case. I believe Orton would be the one deactivated.
 
I don't think that's the case. I believe Orton would be the one deactivated.
No. When the emergency QB goes into the game, no other active QB can go back in.I wonder what's to stop Denver from listing Tebow as an RB, though. Then they could just have "one" active QB (Orton), Tebow would be free to do his thing, and if Quinn had to come in Tebow would remain active.
 

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