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Top 3 backs, next 3 years (1 Viewer)

Which RB would you take as a 3 year keeper?

  • S. Alexander

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • L. Tomlinson

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • L Johnson

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Some other guy.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

fred_garvin

Footballguy
Which RB would you take as a 3 year keeper?

Alexander got his payday and isn't in a contract year anymore. He is the oldest at 29.

LT just lost his starting QB, Breese.

LJ finally starts. Are you scared of priest getting more than 10% of the work? Of Sheilds/Roaf retiring soon? Of new coach Herm Edwards?

 

Synthesizer

Footballguy
This is a tough call and probably comes down to how much of a risk-taker you are. If I'm picking #1 in a dynasty league, I go with the safer pick in Tomlinson.

 

SoloMatisse

Footballguy
Gotta go Larry here. Last year was his 1st year as a starter, and not even for an entire season. He's not yet hit his peak #s. Alexander hit his peak #s last year in what was I believe his 5th year as a starter. Tomlinson will probably peak this year or next, if Rivers doesnt get in the way. Either way, I think LJ is about to go off on this league entering the season with a starting job and truly something to prove.

 

Kit Fisto

Footballguy
Gotta go Larry here. Last year was his 1st year as a starter, and not even for an entire season. He's not yet hit his peak #s. Alexander hit his peak #s last year in what was I believe his 5th year as a starter. Tomlinson will probably peak this year or next, if Rivers doesnt get in the way. Either way, I think LJ is about to go off on this league entering the season with a starting job and truly something to prove.
That's just it in regards to LJ. Maybe he has hit his peak, we don't know...The pick here is LT, all day.

 

salmonstud

Footballguy
Top 3 back for the next 3 years?

-L.Johnson

-Tomlinson

-Portis

In that order...by year 3 you will see a big drop off in Alexander...he is getting old...Tomlinson should see a small dip as well as he will be in the 30+ club.

 

SoloMatisse

Footballguy
Gotta go Larry here.  Last year was his 1st year as a starter, and not even for an entire season.  He's not yet hit his peak #s.  Alexander hit his peak #s last year in what was I believe his 5th year as a starter.  Tomlinson will probably peak this year or next, if Rivers doesnt get in the way.  Either way, I think LJ is about to go off on this league entering the season with a starting job and truly something to prove.
That's just it in regards to LJ. Maybe he has hit his peak, we don't know...The pick here is LT, all day.
You really think he's hit his peak with just a 9 start season under his belt?? Did you not see some improvement from his 3 start season to his 9 start season? Cmon...lets be real here. He hasnt even played a full season. I like Tomlinson too, and could see this choice going either way, but you cant give a hard sell on LJ already peaking.
 

BigJim®

Footballguy
Little surprised by this. I suspect those expecting Vermeil's RB-heaven offense to run on autopilot after he's gone might be surprised. I'll probably stay somewhat clear of KC offensive personnel until I'm convinced the scheme has staying power.

 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
Little surprised by this. I suspect those expecting Vermeil's RB-heaven offense to run on autopilot after he's gone might be surprised. I'll probably stay somewhat clear of KC offensive personnel until I'm convinced the scheme has staying power.
Hard to say. Living in New Jersey I have been exposed to Herman Edwards coaching philosophy. The biggest complaint about Herman Edwards was play calling;1st down - run left

2nd down - run right

3rd and long..."Call the draw"

 

Guinis72

Footballguy
I voted for Alexander, having just signed his new deal.

The offense is potent enough to keep defenses honest, their division is full of horrible defenses and he has been nothing but consistent. I think 3 yrs is just about how long he has left to be a top back.

LT is a pretty safe pick but just seems to get run down by the end of the year. With an unknown commodity in Rivers, I imagine teams will focus on stopping LT first until SD proves they can win on Rivers' arm.

I don't think you can argue with LJ, but for just the next 3 yrs, I think the guys above are more proven having done it yr in and yr out. Losing some aging OL, having a new head coach, and Priest re-negotiating his contract all raise red flags for me. I'd definately consider taking him above SA and LT in a dynasty, however.

 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
I voted for Alexander, having just signed his new deal.

The offense is potent enough to keep defenses honest, their division is full of horrible defenses and he has been nothing but consistent. I think 3 yrs is just about how long he has left to be a top back.

LT is a pretty safe pick but just seems to get run down by the end of the year. With an unknown commodity in Rivers, I imagine teams will focus on stopping LT first until SD proves they can win on Rivers' arm.

I don't think you can argue with LJ, but for just the next 3 yrs, I think the guys above are more proven having done it yr in and yr out. Losing some aging OL, having a new head coach, and Priest re-negotiating his contract all raise red flags for me. I'd definately consider taking him above SA and LT in a dynasty, however.
Guinis72, you've made some to points but, LT run down by the end of the year? I've had LT on my roster since his rookie season. Every year around weeks 14-17 he has "always" produced for me (our league playoff is 15 and 16) and this year was the first that he didn't produce.
 

Couch Potato

Footballguy
This may help. Zealots 37 through 48 are holding their initial veteran drafts in February and March, and I think these serve as a very good gauge for consensus dynasty value.

In the 9 that have partial or complete drafts so far, here are their ADPs:

Tomlinson 1.33 (1,1,1,1,1,3,1,1,2)

L Johnson 1.89 (3,2,2,2,2,1,2,2,1)

Alexander 2.89 (2,3,3,3,3,2,3,4,3)

Keep in mind that these picks all took place before Alexander signed his deal and it was known he'd be staying in Seattle.

Also keep in mind that SAlex is 2 years older than both LT and LJ.

One conclusion I think you can draw from this is that despite Johnson's incredible numbers last year in less than a full season starting, the consensus seems to be more comforted by LT's longer history of elite performance. At the very top of drafts, that comfort is an important thing.

 
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Kleck.

Footballguy
Gotta go Larry here.  Last year was his 1st year as a starter, and not even for an entire season.  He's not yet hit his peak #s.  Alexander hit his peak #s last year in what was I believe his 5th year as a starter.  Tomlinson will probably peak this year or next, if Rivers doesnt get in the way.  Either way, I think LJ is about to go off on this league entering the season with a starting job and truly something to prove.
That's just it in regards to LJ. Maybe he has hit his peak, we don't know...The pick here is LT, all day.
You really think he's hit his peak with just a 9 start season under his belt?? Did you not see some improvement from his 3 start season to his 9 start season? Cmon...lets be real here. He hasnt even played a full season. I like Tomlinson too, and could see this choice going either way, but you cant give a hard sell on LJ already peaking.
KC is already way over the cap for 2006. Their oline isn't getting any younger or cheaper. No more Vermeil/Saunders. Other offensive players (Green/Gonzo) are getting up there in age too and this offence could be quite a bit different in three years, so I understand why some may have concerns about Larry Johnson.Becuase of what we saw last year it would be hard for me not to have in the top 3 for the next three years regardless of what changes take place in KC, but I'd still go with LT.

 
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BigJim®

Footballguy
Little surprised by this. I suspect those expecting Vermeil's RB-heaven offense to run on autopilot after he's gone might be surprised. I'll probably stay somewhat clear of KC offensive personnel until I'm convinced the scheme has staying power.
Hard to say. Living in New Jersey I have been exposed to Herman Edwards coaching philosophy. The biggest complaint about Herman Edwards was play calling;1st down - run left

2nd down - run right

3rd and long..."Call the draw"
I'm no Herm hater, but that isn't exactly a fool-proof comparison. My point is Vermeil led KC to a #1 offense in 2005/2003 and #2 in 2004. Comparing anything to that can't be considered a slight. But on your response, it goes without saying that "run the ball" has been the philosophy of many NFL coaches who haven't had success doing it. I'm not so naive that I'm going to get into a position-by-position personnel comparison (clearly the Jets offense took a huge hit after Pennington went down), but it is a fact the Jet's were 31st in the league offensively last year, while KC was #1. The Jets had a 2nd worst 83 YPG rushing while KC had an NFL 4th ranked 149 YPG on the ground. Before you mention it, it is true that Herm had good rushing offense in 2004, but it's also true that he had a bottom 5 rushing offense in 2003 (97 YPG). I highly doubt you'll find a stretch where Vermiel was bottom five in rushing for 2 of 3 years at any coaching stop. Hopefully Herm Edwards can get the most out of offensive talent a la Vermeil, but it's far from being something I'd pass on LT assuming.
 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
I'm no Herm hater, but that isn't exactly a fool-proof comparison. My point is Vermeil led KC to a #1 offense in 2005/2003 and #2 in 2004. Comparing anything to that can't be considered a slight. But on your response, it goes without saying that "run the ball" has been the philosophy of many NFL coaches who haven't had success doing it. I'm not so naive that I'm going to get into a position-by-position personnel comparison (clearly the Jets offense took a huge hit after Pennington went down), but it is a fact the Jet's were 31st in the league offensively last year, while KC was #1. The Jets had a 2nd worst 83 YPG rushing while KC had an NFL 4th ranked 149 YPG on the ground. Before you mention it, it is true that Herm had good rushing offense in 2004, but it's also true that he had a bottom 5 rushing offense in 2003 (97 YPG). I highly doubt you'll find a stretch where Vermiel was bottom five in rushing for 2 of 3 years at any coaching stop. Hopefully Herm Edwards can get the most out of offensive talent a la Vermeil, but it's far from being something I'd pass on LT assuming.
Fair enough. Jet fans and Jet radio have just killed Herm over the past 3 years that any down and distance under 3rd and 7 is a running down.But also worth noting (on topic) is the only change in the Kansas City coaching staff was the head coach. I think all the positional coaches and coordinators are still the same as with Vermiel.

 

BigJim®

Footballguy
But also worth noting (on topic) is the only change in the Kansas City coaching staff was the head coach. I think all the positional coaches and coordinators are still the same as with Vermiel.
Not so. Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders moved on to OC of the Washington Redskins and KC replaced him with Mike Solari, who had been KC's OL coach.
 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
But also worth noting (on topic) is the only change in the Kansas City coaching staff was the head coach.  I think all the positional coaches and coordinators are still the same as with Vermiel.
Not so. Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders moved on to OC of the Washington Redskins and KC replaced him with Mike Solari, who had been KC's OL coach.
:bag:
 

dj_stouty

Footballguy
But also worth noting (on topic) is the only change in the Kansas City coaching staff was the head coach.  I think all the positional coaches and coordinators are still the same as with Vermiel.
Not so. Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders moved on to OC of the Washington Redskins and KC replaced him with Mike Solari, who had been KC's OL coach.
Which is why it will be interesting to see how the addition of Saunders to the offensive coaching staff helps Portis...Age and wear-n-tear should also be looked at...

Alexander is 29 with 1,900 total touches in 96 games (20/game)

Larry is 26 with 530 total touches in 32 games (16/game)

Portis is 24 with 1,400 total touches in 60 games (23/game)

LT is 26 with 2,000 total touches in 79 games (25/game)

Seems to me that LJ and Portis may be the better RBs by the '08 season, while LT and Alex may be better off now. :mellow:

 

Kit Fisto

Footballguy
Gotta go Larry here.  Last year was his 1st year as a starter, and not even for an entire season.  He's not yet hit his peak #s.  Alexander hit his peak #s last year in what was I believe his 5th year as a starter.  Tomlinson will probably peak this year or next, if Rivers doesnt get in the way.  Either way, I think LJ is about to go off on this league entering the season with a starting job and truly something to prove.
That's just it in regards to LJ. Maybe he has hit his peak, we don't know...The pick here is LT, all day.
You really think he's hit his peak with just a 9 start season under his belt?? Did you not see some improvement from his 3 start season to his 9 start season? Cmon...lets be real here. He hasnt even played a full season. I like Tomlinson too, and could see this choice going either way, but you cant give a hard sell on LJ already peaking.
You're making my point for me. "He hasn't even played a full season."

I didn't say he already peaked; I'm saying we have no comparison to go by. Maybe his 9 start numbers are the best he's ever gonna do. Maybe he'll improve on that year-in and year-out and break Emmitt's record. Operative word here being maybe.

LT is a much safer pick.

 
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John 14:6

Jesus is Lord!
But also worth noting (on topic) is the only change in the Kansas City coaching staff was the head coach.  I think all the positional coaches and coordinators are still the same as with Vermiel.
Not so. Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders moved on to OC of the Washington Redskins and KC replaced him with Mike Solari, who had been KC's OL coach.
Which is why it will be interesting to see how the addition of Saunders to the offensive coaching staff helps Portis...Age and wear-n-tear should also be looked at...

Alexander is 29 with 1,900 total touches in 96 games (20/game)

Larry is 26 with 530 total touches in 32 games (16/game)

Portis is 24 with 1,400 total touches in 60 games (23/game)

LT is 26 with 2,000 total touches in 79 games (25/game)

Seems to me that LJ and Portis may be the better RBs by the '08 season, while LT and Alex may be better off now. :mellow:
Of the group, LJ has the least carries and Portis is the youngest. I have both and they lead me to the championship in my keeper league last year. And the future certainly looks bright. :clap: :clap: :clap:

 

SoloMatisse

Footballguy
Kit-

Here's the point. While he has not STARTED a full season, LJ's still played 3 seasons. If we can't draw conclusions from 3 seasons of player performance, than either we just dont have our thinking caps on or we're just plain stubborn. LJ has improved from 85yds and 1 TD his rookie year, to 500something and 11 TDs in his 2nd year, to over 2000 total yds and 21 TDs his 3rd year. Now, thats 3 years of performance and I know a trend when I see one. Give the kid the rock and he'll get the job done. The greater the looks the greater the production. Add to that the fact that he hasnt been overworked AND he's driven....and he's finished each of the past 2 seasons like a starving animal???.....that's some koolaid I cant get enough of. But I buy your agruement about LT2's consistency...there's no arguing that. For flat out consistency, he or SA are clearly your guys.

 

thayman

Footballguy
I like Portis over the next 3 years. LT is golden for the next couple years, but his production will probably start to decline a bit. The only reason I'm nt a huge LJ fan is with his OL leaving, and aging a bit, I'm not positive he can produce like he did this year.

Edit to say Over the next 3 years I think they will all be in the top 5.

 
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Tackling Dummies

Footballguy
KC is already way over the cap for 2006. Their oline isn't getting any younger or cheaper. No more Vermeil/Saunders. Other offensive players (Green/Gonzo) are getting up there in age too and this offence could be quite a bit different in three years, so I understand why some may have concerns about Larry Johnson.

Becuase of what we saw last year it would be hard for me not to have in the top 3 for the next three years regardless of what changes take place in KC, but I'd still go with LT.
With or without NFL deal, team will get under salary cap Chiefs won’t need to make cutsBy ELIZABETH MERRILL

The Kansas City Star

After weeks of nervous cap watching, and fears of a bloody Sunday, the Chiefs’ bloated number was poised to disappear with nary a whimper.

Pro Bowl guard Will Shields was still on the roster. So was Priest Holmes. By late in the afternoon, Chiefs president/general manager Carl Peterson said there would be no cuts Sunday. That came hours before the NFL new year was scheduled to begin and teams had scurried to get under a salary cap that had been a moving target.

Then the target moved again. Labor negotiations in New York restarted, then stalled again, then late in the evening, the start of free-agency was postponed — again — for another 72 hours. It meant the Chiefs can wait to get below the $94.5 million cap that could rise by $10 million if a deal is worked out.

But the Chiefs are ready to get below the cap with the help of four to six players who agreed to restructure their contracts.

“I appreciate those who have been receptive to it,” Peterson said, “and obviously there have been some who have not been receptive. And then I’ve had to make a decision to say goodbye to them.”

3/06 KC Star link

 

jonessed

Footballguy
KC is already way over the cap for 2006.  Their oline isn't getting any younger or cheaper.  No more Vermeil/Saunders.  Other offensive players (Green/Gonzo) are getting up there in age too and this offence could be quite a bit different in three years, so I understand why some may have concerns about Larry Johnson.

Becuase of what we saw last year it would be hard for me not to have in the top 3 for the next three years regardless of what changes take place in KC, but I'd still go with LT.
With or without NFL deal, team will get under salary cap Chiefs won’t need to make cutsBy ELIZABETH MERRILL

The Kansas City Star

After weeks of nervous cap watching, and fears of a bloody Sunday, the Chiefs’ bloated number was poised to disappear with nary a whimper.

Pro Bowl guard Will Shields was still on the roster. So was Priest Holmes. By late in the afternoon, Chiefs president/general manager Carl Peterson said there would be no cuts Sunday. That came hours before the NFL new year was scheduled to begin and teams had scurried to get under a salary cap that had been a moving target.

Then the target moved again. Labor negotiations in New York restarted, then stalled again, then late in the evening, the start of free-agency was postponed — again — for another 72 hours. It meant the Chiefs can wait to get below the $94.5 million cap that could rise by $10 million if a deal is worked out.

But the Chiefs are ready to get below the cap with the help of four to six players who agreed to restructure their contracts.

“I appreciate those who have been receptive to it,” Peterson said, “and obviously there have been some who have not been receptive. And then I’ve had to make a decision to say goodbye to them.”

3/06 KC Star link
Regardless of cap space do you really see Roaf and Shields playing for three more years? Those were two guys ready to retire *this* year. I just don't see how KC talks them into playing that long.
 

20431

Footballguy
Top 3 back for the next 3 years?

-L.Johnson

-Tomlinson

-Portis

In that order...by year 3 you will see a big drop off in Alexander...he is getting old...Tomlinson should see a small dip as well as he will be in the 30+ club.
#######
 

thayman

Footballguy
I like Portis over the next 3 years.
#######
I love your response.....I assume your a Cowboy fan, You dont see Portis being a great RB?? I see why since he has a great OL and a HOF coach who loves to run the ball, and once of the best OC in football....
 

fred_garvin

Footballguy
KC is already way over the cap for 2006.  Their oline isn't getting any younger or cheaper.  No more Vermeil/Saunders.  Other offensive players (Green/Gonzo) are getting up there in age too and this offence could be quite a bit different in three years, so I understand why some may have concerns about Larry Johnson.

Becuase of what we saw last year it would be hard for me not to have in the top 3 for the next three years regardless of what changes take place in KC, but I'd still go with LT.
With or without NFL deal, team will get under salary cap Chiefs won’t need to make cutsBy ELIZABETH MERRILL

The Kansas City Star

After weeks of nervous cap watching, and fears of a bloody Sunday, the Chiefs’ bloated number was poised to disappear with nary a whimper.

Pro Bowl guard Will Shields was still on the roster. So was Priest Holmes. By late in the afternoon, Chiefs president/general manager Carl Peterson said there would be no cuts Sunday. That came hours before the NFL new year was scheduled to begin and teams had scurried to get under a salary cap that had been a moving target.

Then the target moved again. Labor negotiations in New York restarted, then stalled again, then late in the evening, the start of free-agency was postponed — again — for another 72 hours. It meant the Chiefs can wait to get below the $94.5 million cap that could rise by $10 million if a deal is worked out.

But the Chiefs are ready to get below the cap with the help of four to six players who agreed to restructure their contracts.

“I appreciate those who have been receptive to it,” Peterson said, “and obviously there have been some who have not been receptive. And then I’ve had to make a decision to say goodbye to them.”

3/06 KC Star link
Regardless of cap space do you really see Roaf and Shields playing for three more years? Those were two guys ready to retire *this* year. I just don't see how KC talks them into playing that long.
That's the question for me. What's the bigger risk here:1. Johnson will lose Roaf/Sheilds during the 3 years. Lost Vermeil/Saunders this offseason.

2. Alexander is 29 and will cross the dreaded "30 year old" barrier for rb's.

 

20431

Footballguy
I like Portis over the next 3 years.
#######
I love your response.....I assume your a Cowboy fan, You dont see Portis being a great RB?? I see why since he has a great OL and a HOF coach who loves to run the ball, and once of the best OC in football....
Two years ago they were talking about benching him. Until the second half of last year, not all foreskins fans were too happy with his performance. Three years is a looooong time for running backs. You talk about his coaching, yet there is a small possibility that Gibbs will be the coach for the next three years.
 

Sinrman

Footballguy
It'll be interesting to resurrect this thread in three years and see who's closest...

As much as I'd like to go with my boy LT, I think the mileage is going to eventually catch up to him. He'll be right near 30 at that point, too. Can he still do it? Of course. And he's still in my top 5, but not quite top 3.

I'd have to go with LJ, Ronnie Brown, and Steven Jackson. I would like to say whomever the Colts draft, assuming they don't re-sign Edge (not likely), and they draft someone rather than pickup in FA. Whomever it is, will be in an excellent system...

 

thayman

Footballguy
I like Portis over the next 3 years.
#######
I love your response.....I assume your a Cowboy fan, You dont see Portis being a great RB?? I see why since he has a great OL and a HOF coach who loves to run the ball, and once of the best OC in football....
Two years ago they were talking about benching him. Until the second half of last year, not all foreskins fans were too happy with his performance. Three years is a looooong time for running backs. You talk about his coaching, yet there is a small possibility that Gibbs will be the coach for the next three years.
What are you talking about??? I follow the Skins religously...and NOONE has ever talked about benching him. Talked about bringing in another guy and how a RBBC would work great, but that is it. And every skins fan i've talked to has been happy with him. His DOWN year was 1300yds. Please....don't get pissy with me donkey because the skins whipped your boys this year.
 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
But also worth noting (on topic) is the only change in the Kansas City coaching staff was the head coach.  I think all the positional coaches and coordinators are still the same as with Vermiel.
Not so. Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders moved on to OC of the Washington Redskins and KC replaced him with Mike Solari, who had been KC's OL coach.
Which is why it will be interesting to see how the addition of Saunders to the offensive coaching staff helps Portis...Age and wear-n-tear should also be looked at...

Alexander is 29 with 1,900 total touches in 96 games (20/game)

Larry is 26 with 530 total touches in 32 games (16/game)

Portis is 24 with 1,400 total touches in 60 games (23/game)

LT is 26 with 2,000 total touches in 79 games (25/game)

Seems to me that LJ and Portis may be the better RBs by the '08 season, while LT and Alex may be better off now. :mellow:
Of the group, LJ has the least carries and Portis is the youngest. I have both and they lead me to the championship in my keeper league last year. And the future certainly looks bright. :clap: :clap: :clap:
I traded away Portis :mellow: but I have LT2/LJ/Rudi and we're making another run. :football: Oh and this will be the first year I don't have Portis, I drafted him as a rookie and he'll be missed, but the offer was too good to pass up. Here's to another championship :banned:

 

Steel City

Footballguy
Somebody needs to find the thread (before he was drafted) where 99% of this board predicted that Larry Johnson would suck.

If I remember correctly, most said he was too slow to be a dominant back.

With that said, LT should be winning this.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
Somebody needs to find the thread (before he was drafted) where 99% of this board predicted that Larry Johnson would suck.

If I remember correctly, most said he was too slow to be a dominant back.

With that said, LT should be winning this.
Before he was drafted? Try mid 2004. LJ's a Bust!

Justin Fargas is better than LJ!

Blaylock is the future!

LJ will never see the field - Trade him!

Larry Johnson to be traded to Miami!

A quick search will show many more "insightful" threads.

 

aussiehockeyfan

Footballguy
Um... it's a bit premature to count Larry Johnson as a top-3 pick in '06. People are assuming he'll get the overwhelming majority of carries in '06. Until Priest Holmes retires (or gets injured yet again), that isn't likely going to happen. Since this is a three-year keeper - if there's even a chance that LJ is RBBCing (and for an entire year), you really can't take that risk with the #1 choice.

It's got to be a choice between LT and Shaun Alexander. Alexander's "real life expectancy" of his contract is three years, so age/wear and tear wise, it's moot. The real massive cliff for RBs is actually 32. Flip a coin. Both these guys are studs.

 

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