Twitter (5 Viewers)

[moleculo]

I wish a company like Twitter could find a way to succeed while providing more jobs not less.

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying a company should employ more people than they actually need?

Why not?

Obviously, "need" is kind of a fungible word here, and different companies have different perspectives and priorities.

For example, it's my understanding that my Chinese supplier's main goal is to maximize employment. They make money on gov't subsidies and real estate deals, based on how many workers they can employ. Their "need" is obviously different than my companies.

 

[Battersbox]

Do you think it's possible Musk could fail at Twitter?

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail. IMO he'll never get anything close to $44B out of it.

And I didn't really think he bought it to keep it running more or less as it always had (which seems to cover most of your criteria for failure -- that it stops working as it always had).

I have no idea if he'll ever get $44B out of it, but I think it's important to remember that valuations often have as much to do with the broader economic climate than what's happening at the individual company.

I mean, if Twitter can get ad revenues anywhere near back to what they were say 2 years ago, with 1/3 of the labor costs, they'd could be back to profitability by a comfortable margin. But even if they don't, as long as they stay afloat Twitter could still conceivably make it back to the valuation Musk paid. If the broader space rebounds over the next few years and interest rates reverse course, ALL teach firms could claw back significant portions of the valuations they lost in 2022.

 

[bigbottom]

Do you think it's possible Musk could fail at Twitter?

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail. IMO he'll never get anything close to $44B out of it.

And I didn't really think he bought it to keep it running more or less as it always had (which seems to cover most of your criteria for failure -- that it stops working as it always had).

I have no idea if he'll ever get $44B out of it, but I think it's important to remember that valuations often have as much to do with the broader economic climate than what's happening at the individual company.

I mean, if Twitter can get ad revenues anywhere near back to what they were say 2 years ago, with 1/3 of the labor costs, they'd could be back to profitability by a comfortable margin. But even if they don't, as long as they stay afloat Twitter could still conceivably make it back to the valuation Musk paid. If the broader space rebounds over the next few years and interest rates reverse course, ALL teach firms could claw back significant portions of the valuations they lost in 2022.

Re the bolded, are you taking into account the massive increase (20x) in debt service costs?

 

[Joe Bryant]

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail.

I obviously don't know for sure what his goals are. But I don't think his goal was to make money on this.

 

[[scooter]]

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail.

I obviously don't know for sure what his goals are. But I don't think his goal was to make money on this.

What do you think his goal was?

 

[uwillbsoon]

Judging by his Tweets, he's primarily focused on growing the user base outside the US. Which is the first strategy I've heard that actually makes sense. Broadens the user base and the advertiser base.

Some other random things I've heard:

1. Twitter is facing more competition now than ever before - Mastodon, Blue sky, Post - and these new services can take advantage of new technologies that may give them a technology advantage. Twitter has a lot of technical debt.

2. The key to success is going to be paying content providers. Again, some of the new guys - Post being one - may have an advantage there. Musk has been antagonistic of a lot of content providers.

3. At the end of the day, content is going to win. Twitter needs to expand users to compete.

 

[Battersbox]

Do you think it's possible Musk could fail at Twitter?

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail. IMO he'll never get anything close to $44B out of it.

And I didn't really think he bought it to keep it running more or less as it always had (which seems to cover most of your criteria for failure -- that it stops working as it always had).

I have no idea if he'll ever get $44B out of it, but I think it's important to remember that valuations often have as much to do with the broader economic climate than what's happening at the individual company.

I mean, if Twitter can get ad revenues anywhere near back to what they were say 2 years ago, with 1/3 of the labor costs, they'd could be back to profitability by a comfortable margin. But even if they don't, as long as they stay afloat Twitter could still conceivably make it back to the valuation Musk paid. If the broader space rebounds over the next few years and interest rates reverse course, ALL teach firms could claw back significant portions of the valuations they lost in 2022.

Re the bolded, are you taking into account the massive increase (20x) in debt service costs?

Yes, but this is all back of the envelope. I'm not pretending to be an expert here.

But, Twitter revenue was running at roughly $5B annually. I would guess labor costs are the lion's share of their expenses. If revenue gets anywhere back near $5B I'm assuming they can run in the black, even if debt service is nearing $2B. For the record, Twitter already was running with some debt pre-Musk. I think they had roughly $500M on the books.

Take all that with a grain of salt though. My primary point is simply that if market sentiment leads to tech stocks being back in favor, Twitter could again be worth $44B with very little changing specific to the company. Regaining ~$30B - $40B sounds ludicrous of course, but it sounds more plausible when you realize Meta lost something like $700B in market value during roughly the same time period.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

For the first time since Musk took over, I am noticing a different user experience that is somewhat negative but far from a deal-breaker. The main thing I'm noticing is a large number of tweets showing up in my timeline from people I don't follow. It used to be when I'd see tweets from accounts I don't follow, they would be marked as "promoted" or similar and were ads. Now I'm routinely seeing tweets from randos in my timeline. Also, I think Musk's tweets are just mega-boosted to everyone on the app - which is not a big deal because I've been following him forever and definitely want to see his tweets these days more than ever.

 

[bigbottom]

Do you think it's possible Musk could fail at Twitter?

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail. IMO he'll never get anything close to $44B out of it.

And I didn't really think he bought it to keep it running more or less as it always had (which seems to cover most of your criteria for failure -- that it stops working as it always had).

I have no idea if he'll ever get $44B out of it, but I think it's important to remember that valuations often have as much to do with the broader economic climate than what's happening at the individual company.

I mean, if Twitter can get ad revenues anywhere near back to what they were say 2 years ago, with 1/3 of the labor costs, they'd could be back to profitability by a comfortable margin. But even if they don't, as long as they stay afloat Twitter could still conceivably make it back to the valuation Musk paid. If the broader space rebounds over the next few years and interest rates reverse course, ALL teach firms could claw back significant portions of the valuations they lost in 2022.

Re the bolded, are you taking into account the massive increase (20x) in debt service costs?

Yes, but this is all back of the envelope. I'm not pretending to be an expert here.

But, Twitter revenue was running at roughly $5B annually. I would guess labor costs are the lion's share of their expenses. If revenue gets anywhere back near $5B I'm assuming they can run in the black, even if debt service is nearing $2B. For the record, Twitter already was running with some debt pre-Musk. I think they had roughly $500M on the books.

Take all that with a grain of salt though. My primary point is simply that if market sentiment leads to tech stocks being back in favor, Twitter could again be worth $44B with very little changing specific to the company. Regaining ~$30B - $40B sounds ludicrous of course, but it sounds more plausible when you realize Meta lost something like $700B in market value during roughly the same time period.

I’ve read 50 million in interest expense pre-acquisition. If that’s correct, it is now 20 times that.

 

[Battersbox]

Do you think it's possible Musk could fail at Twitter?

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail. IMO he'll never get anything close to $44B out of it.

And I didn't really think he bought it to keep it running more or less as it always had (which seems to cover most of your criteria for failure -- that it stops working as it always had).

I have no idea if he'll ever get $44B out of it, but I think it's important to remember that valuations often have as much to do with the broader economic climate than what's happening at the individual company.

I mean, if Twitter can get ad revenues anywhere near back to what they were say 2 years ago, with 1/3 of the labor costs, they'd could be back to profitability by a comfortable margin. But even if they don't, as long as they stay afloat Twitter could still conceivably make it back to the valuation Musk paid. If the broader space rebounds over the next few years and interest rates reverse course, ALL teach firms could claw back significant portions of the valuations they lost in 2022.

Re the bolded, are you taking into account the massive increase (20x) in debt service costs?

Yes, but this is all back of the envelope. I'm not pretending to be an expert here.

But, Twitter revenue was running at roughly $5B annually. I would guess labor costs are the lion's share of their expenses. If revenue gets anywhere back near $5B I'm assuming they can run in the black, even if debt service is nearing $2B. For the record, Twitter already was running with some debt pre-Musk. I think they had roughly $500M on the books.

Take all that with a grain of salt though. My primary point is simply that if market sentiment leads to tech stocks being back in favor, Twitter could again be worth $44B with very little changing specific to the company. Regaining ~$30B - $40B sounds ludicrous of course, but it sounds more plausible when you realize Meta lost something like $700B in market value during roughly the same time period.

I’ve read 50 million. If that’s correct, it is now 20 times that.

You are correct. I misspoke and was referring to total debt of $500M, not debt service. So yes, way more cash flow has to go to debt service now. It was indeed negligible before. Interestingly, Twitter had always carried a very small amount of debt for a company of it's size which was a member of the S&P 500 (especially in the Tech sector).

 

[Joe Bryant]

For the first time since Musk took over, I am noticing a different user experience that is somewhat negative but far from a deal-breaker. The main thing I'm noticing is a large number of tweets showing up in my timeline from people I don't follow. It used to be when I'd see tweets from accounts I don't follow, they would be marked as "promoted" or similar and were ads. Now I'm routinely seeing tweets from randos in my timeline. Also, I think Musk's tweets are just mega-boosted to everyone on the app - which is not a big deal because I've been following him forever and definitely want to see his tweets these days more than ever.

Interesting. I'm not seeing that in my feed. I do see a few posts from people I don't follow but they're not random. It says at the top that they are followed or liked by people I follow. I think that's been there for a while. It's the "we think if you follow this person and they liked it that you would be interested too" angle. I find those usually useful. But I also am pretty careful in who I follow.

And then there are the posts from advertisers as there have been forever that say "Promoted" at the bottom.

 

[Joe Bryant]

FWIW, looks like it will be further out on Twitter Blue or Verified or whatever they call it. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1594861031670820864?s=20&t=2ev0NJVXVarv5jFa8n1xJw

Holding off relaunch of Blue Verified until there is high confidence of stopping impersonation. Will probably use different color check for organizations than individuals.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I also had never seen the Twitter Community Notes thing.

Apparently, it's been around a very long time and was something Jack Dorsey liked and led. It was called Birdwatch back then.

It looks like it's meant to add context or correction.

In this tweet, Musk quoted a movie and actually it was a quote by Carl Jung and the correction was added. I had not seen this before and don't know how it works differently than commenting on a post.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1594773242626965505?s=20&t=2ev0NJVXVarv5jFa8n1xJw

Community Notes is a collaborative way to keep people better informed.
Contributors are people like you. Anyone on Twitter whose account meets the eligibility criteria can sign up to help.

All contributors start with the ability to rate notes, and over time, can earn the ability to write.

Notes aren't chosen by majority rule. Community Notes identifies notes that are found helpful by and for people with different points of view.

Twitter doesn't choose what shows up: the people do.

 

[The Commish]

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail.

I obviously don't know for sure what his goals are. But I don't think his goal was to make money on this.

What do you think his goal was?

He actually TOLD us what his goal is....why is this even a question? Do we not believe he's telling us the truth as to what his goal is?

 

[Desert_Power]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

 

[belljr]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

Yeah that seems like a pretty reasonable thing to do.

 

[uwillbsoon]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

Yeah that seems like a pretty reasonable thing to do.

Normal, but unproductive. Can't they run reports on this out of whatever version control software they use? Or project planning/tracking software? Need to automate it.

Musk should do the same. And maybe he will. But it'd be great if the CEO did the same that he expected his employees to do: here is what I accomplished this week.

 

[uwillbsoon]

FWIW, looks like it will be further out on Twitter Blue or Verified or whatever they call it. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1594861031670820864?s=20&t=2ev0NJVXVarv5jFa8n1xJw

Holding off relaunch of Blue Verified until there is high confidence of stopping impersonation. Will probably use different color check for organizations than individuals.

Least surprising thing ever . Musk missed a promised deadline?

 

[urbanhack]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

The worst companies I worked for operated like this.

Trust your leaders to run their departments. Sending a detailed update of all the work you did straight to the top is so ridiculous in a company of that size.

 

[John123]

I don't think the weekly update thing is a big deal. Even if it wasn't relatively normal, it seems more than reasonable for someone taking over a new company in a new industry to want that type of information, at least short term. I suspect that once he has a better understanding of the projects being worked on and the personnel now working for him things will settle down. I don't think Musk wants to spend all his time reading weekly reports.

 

[Juxtatarot]

It’s funny that seemingly every company-wide email is being leaked to the press. I don’t recall stuff like this happening before.

 

[uwillbsoon]

It’s funny that seemingly every company-wide email is being leaked to the press. I don’t recall stuff like this happening before.

I think the Platformer said they even had a partially recorded all-staff meeting .

 

[Desert_Power]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

Not really commenting either way on it, just passing it along. Trying to summarize up development work to senior levels is always interesting but they do only have 2700 employees overall.

 

[The General]

Link

It is wild the site seems to function with so little staff. I guess these are the things that are happening. Most users probably don’t notice.

 

[the moops]

I don't think the weekly update thing is a big deal. Even if it wasn't relatively normal, it seems more than reasonable for someone taking over a new company in a new industry to want that type of information, at least short term. I suspect that once he has a better understanding of the projects being worked on and the personnel now working for him things will settle down. I don't think Musk wants to spend all his time reading weekly reports.

Any new CEO shouldn’t be spending their time reading 2300 weekly update reports. That is a terrible way to spend his time. Even worse than his meme posting and trolling of Trent Reznor.

 

[massraider]

As Elon Musk Cuts Costs at Twitter, Some Bills Are Going Unpaid

Mr. Musk and his advisers are examining all types of expenses at Twitter. Some of the social media company’s vendors have gotten stiffed.

www.nytimes.com

A fairly lengthy list of cost cutting measures at Twitter. Collectively, it kinds of look really bad, but if a company was run as poorly as some are saying Twitter was, then cutting off corporate cards, and renegotiating deals is probably the right thing to do.

This story alludes to vendors not getting paid, unless they offer a discount, and also employees not getting reimbursed for travel, while being asked to fly to headquarters. That's pretty indefensible.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

With the CEO of a 44 billion dollar company?

 

[John123]

I don't think the weekly update thing is a big deal. Even if it wasn't relatively normal, it seems more than reasonable for someone taking over a new company in a new industry to want that type of information, at least short term. I suspect that once he has a better understanding of the projects being worked on and the personnel now working for him things will settle down. I don't think Musk wants to spend all his time reading weekly reports.

Any new CEO shouldn’t be spending their time reading 2300 weekly update reports. That is a terrible way to spend his time. Even worse than his meme posting and trolling of Trent Reznor.

Ugh. Please go back and read the link posted regarding the weekly reports. Your post is factually incorrect.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

With the CEO of a 44 billion dollar company?

I find it difficult to believe that weekly check-ins are especially uncommon in 44-billion dollar companies. I can see where if you're a team lead who works shoulder-to-shoulder with your direct reports, something like this might not be necessary. But given the organizational changes that have taken place at twitter, it makes sense to have some formal way of keeping track of who is doing what while the dust settles at least.

Having read a couple of responses, I see now that people think that Musk is personally going to read 2400 weekly reports every week, which is kind of illuminating.

 

[eoMMan]

If his goal was to make money, he's pretty much guaranteed to fail.

I obviously don't know for sure what his goals are. But I don't think his goal was to make money on this.

Good opinion piece out today on a major platform about what his goal could be (we can’t talk about it).

 

[the moops]

I don't think the weekly update thing is a big deal. Even if it wasn't relatively normal, it seems more than reasonable for someone taking over a new company in a new industry to want that type of information, at least short term. I suspect that once he has a better understanding of the projects being worked on and the personnel now working for him things will settle down. I don't think Musk wants to spend all his time reading weekly reports.

Any new CEO shouldn’t be spending their time reading 2300 weekly update reports. That is a terrible way to spend his time. Even worse than his meme posting and trolling of Trent Reznor.

Ugh. Please go back and read the link posted regarding the weekly reports. Your post is factually incorrect.

I can't read the article. I was just going off the title. Can someone post content of article?

 

[The Commish]

It’s funny that seemingly every company-wide email is being leaked to the press. I don’t recall stuff like this happening before.

To put all this in perspective, between 2012 and 2020 Wells Fargo completely stripped four major segments of their technology groups to the ground and rebuilt them from scratch completely retooling each tech organization that supports those business areas. None of you heard about it and a great many within the company never knew it was happening. What we are watching is NOT normal.

 

[Ilov80s]

For the first time since Musk took over, I am noticing a different user experience that is somewhat negative but far from a deal-breaker. The main thing I'm noticing is a large number of tweets showing up in my timeline from people I don't follow. It used to be when I'd see tweets from accounts I don't follow, they would be marked as "promoted" or similar and were ads. Now I'm routinely seeing tweets from randos in my timeline. Also, I think Musk's tweets are just mega-boosted to everyone on the app - which is not a big deal because I've been following him forever and definitely want to see his tweets these days more than ever.

How so? I missed this

It’s funny that seemingly every company-wide email is being leaked to the press. I don’t recall stuff like this happening before.

I don’t think there was an interest or audience for internal Twitter emails a year ago.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Having read a couple of responses, I see now that people think that Musk is personally going to read 2400 weekly reports every week, which is kind of illuminating.

Indeed.

 

[massraider]

In recent weeks, 50 of the top 100 advertisers have either announced or seemingly stopped advertising on Twitter. These advertisers have accounted for nearly $2 billion in spending on the platform since 2020, and over $750 million in advertising in 2022 alone.

In less than a month, Elon Musk has driven away half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers

In recent weeks, 50 of the top 100 advertisers have either announced or seemingly stopped advertising on Twitter. These advertisers have accounted for nearly $2 billion in spending on the platform since 2020, and over $750 million in advertising in 2022 alone. In addition to advertisers that...

www.mediamatters.org

 

[AAABatteries]

Vice reporting World Cup players receiving racist abuse on Twitter that isn’t being removed.

Black World Cup Stars Are Getting a Barrage of Racist Attacks and Twitter Is Doing Nothing

Researchers have found that racist tweets targeting footballers have been allowed to remain on the platform despite being reported to Twitter.

www.vice.com

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Vice reporting World Cup players receiving racist abuse on Twitter that isn’t being removed.

Black World Cup Stars Are Getting a Barrage of Racist Attacks and Twitter Is Doing Nothing

Researchers have found that racist tweets targeting footballers have been allowed to remain on the platform despite being reported to Twitter.

www.vice.com

I'm in favor of relatively loose moderation, but this stuff is over my line and it should really be cleaned up. It seems like racial taunting ought to something that can be addressed algorithmically but maybe that's harder to do than I imagine.

 

[Juxtatarot]

I got the impression that the “max deboosting” policy was an idea for the future, not something currently being implemented.

With all the moderation staff cuts, this was easily predictable.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don’t think there was an interest or audience for internal Twitter emails a year ago.

Twitter has been enemy number 1 for a sizable percentage of people in this country for a couple years now. I think there was plenty of appetite for juicy company emails

That is a fair point for sure.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

With the CEO of a 44 billion dollar company?

To be fair, it's worth way less than $44B now

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I've been WFH 30+ years now. I've always had an office too but wasn't expected there. Of course I work all the time. I had two days off work, 7 years ago, lol, but that's on me. I love what I do. Pretty great little life.

Holy smokes, I can't imagine loving any job so much. What do you do?

I'm in outside sales like my father and his father. My office is where ever I want it to be.

Most people think of sales as ABC and in some industries it is. Our industries were/are always about making friends. We all made a lot of them. Sincere life long, friendships. It's easy really because we all had this, what seems like a quirk sometimes, fascination with other people and their lives. We sincerely care(d). I still talk to people that retired years ago on a regular basis. I love my friends whether they are a client or not and no way in hell will I ever let them down. It's satisfying.

That Twitter though, crazy stuff huh? :noban:

ETA

I've gotten to spend my entire adult life doing whatever I wanted every single day. Yes there are meetings and stuff but 99% of the time, I answer only to myself. Lucky I am.

 

[FBG Moderator]

One time note - this thread will be removed like the other one was and posters will be banned like they were in the other thread if people continue to bring politics into it.

Especially the barely hidden snarky shots that the only people who could possibly see it different are politically motivated and biased.

 

[The Commish]

To be fair, it's worth way less than $44B now

And the avoidable losses keep accumulating

 

[Statorama]

I don't think the weekly update thing is a big deal. Even if it wasn't relatively normal, it seems more than reasonable for someone taking over a new company in a new industry to want that type of information, at least short term. I suspect that once he has a better understanding of the projects being worked on and the personnel now working for him things will settle down. I don't think Musk wants to spend all his time reading weekly reports.

These are the things that happen to acquired companies that had full time employees flaunting they "worked" a 4 hour week.

This is all about promoting accountability. Once things stabilize these kinds of things tend to go away.

The downside to this level of micromanaging is that you lose some stars who just aren't going to put up with that. The guys in the middle play ball and do just enough to not get fired.

 

[FairWarning]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

With the CEO of a 44 billion dollar company?

To be fair, it's worth way less than $44B now

If it were on the market now, what would it sell for? Just curious, I have no idea.

 

[belljr]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

With the CEO of a 44 billion dollar company?

Plot twist....I am the CEO of a 35 billion company....so I guess no?

 

[bigbottom]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

With the CEO of a 44 billion dollar company?

Plot twist....I am the CEO of a 35 billion company....so I guess no?

Nice!

 

[Insein]

One thing Musk is doing way better than the previous management is getting rid of the CP. It was a problem that was not only ignored by previous Twitter Management, it was actively encouraged. I knew several people that got a week suspension for reporting CP accounts within the last 5 years. He's drastically cut down the amount and added tools to more easily report it in just a few weeks.

Elon Musk Is Protecting Sexually Exploited Children

Musk has been quietly making changes to Twitter that will have a huge positive global impact on the most vulnerable: children who are sexually exploited.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Sammy3469]

Musk now requires weekly updates.

Meh....I have weekly status meetings. That seems somewhat normal

With the CEO of a 44 billion dollar company?

To be fair, it's worth way less than $44B now

If it were on the market now, what would it sell for? Just curious, I have no idea.

Snap which is about as equally crappy from an advertising perspective is down 66%, so somewhere in the 10-20 billion range. The other way to get a comp would be to 13 billion in debt times what its trading at (60 cents I think) which gets you to around 10 billion.