"Upside of Danger" (1 Viewer)

[Colin Dowling]

If you click over to the main site, you'll find my "Upside of Danger" article where I talk about finding players that are high-risk, uber-high reward. In the article I mention Vince Young, Darren McFadden, Chris Henry (WR), and Mike Williams (WR). I also think that players like Alex Smith, Plaxico Burress, Julius Jones, Santonio Holmes, and Aaron Rodgers qualify as players that are worth selecting a round (or 2) early just to insure they are on your team because they are in great spots to far exceed expectations...and you'd hate for some other team to get the dividends.

Who are you thinking of overpaying for with the idea in mind that you'll look like a genius once the season ends?

 

[FUBAR]

You mentioned a couple of my targets already, VY and Holmes.

Others I like a lot, but could easily bust:

Warner / Leinart

Chris Henry (RB)

Bowe

Scheffler

 

[Colin Dowling]

You mentioned a couple of my targets already, VY and Holmes. Others I like a lot, but could easily bust:Warner / LeinartChris Henry (RB)BoweScheffler

Dwayne Bowe is an excellent candidate to "blow up."Agree on the Arizona QB situation, expecially since both can be had somewhat late.

 

[ceo3west]

Lee Evans.. contract year.

 

[markcooper]

Ginn, although overpaying for him will still be near the tail end of some drafts.

 

[footballman_696969]

Maroney

 

[jaylasoul14]

Bryant Johnson and Issac Bruce

McFadden

Drew Brees

All this guys can be had relatively cheap and who would be surprised if they were the at the top of there positions. Regarding Brees i mean the guy can possibly be had in the 4th round and should throw for 4500 yards. plus the guy gets the 300 point bonus a ton of times. san fran is going to throw for 4000 yards, one of those wr could be top ten. McFadden can be had in 4th or 5th, no one would be surprised to see him top 7 fantasy back.

These are the main guys i would be sick about if they blew up for somebody who picked on my end of the fantasy draft.

 

[Big_Russel]

Alge Crumpler

 

[Buffaloes]

Jonathan Stewart could end up mired in the dreaded RBBC, but I think he fits that offense way too well and I can see him as ROY. I'm willing to take the chance there.

Brandon Marshall probably would fit on this list though I'm probably not going to take a chance unless he falls from his current ADP.

 

[5Rings]

Vernon Davis. Slot WRs in Martz' offense seem to do pretty well, especially when you can start them at TE.

 

[gianmarco]

Randy McMichael

 

[elcohiba]

Santana Moss and Matt Schaub

 

[Jayrod]

Javon Walker

Jonathan Stewart

Vincent Jackson

 

[David Yudkin]

Lee Evans.. contract year.

Two things . . .1) there is no evidence that suggests players perform any better in a contract year vs. any other year. In the NFL, players are ALWAYS playing for a contract, because if they plkay poorly they could easily be cut.2) Especially for WR, they have no control about playing any better. It's not like they can make the QB thrown them the ball more, make the line block better, or get the QB to throw more accurately. So a WR is along for the ride and can't really do more than he normally would.

 

[ceo3west]

Lee Evans.. contract year.

Two things . . .1) there is no evidence that suggests players perform any better in a contract year vs. any other year. In the NFL, players are ALWAYS playing for a contract, because if they plkay poorly they could easily be cut.2) Especially for WR, they have no control about playing any better. It's not like they can make the QB thrown them the ball more, make the line block better, or get the QB to throw more accurately. So a WR is along for the ride and can't really do more than he normally would.

I hear what you're saying, and I do know that there is a lack of evidence to suggest guys perform better in contract years. However, I do beleive that guys are more willing to play hurt in a contract year (IMO) which can be huge for a fantasy team. Also, I think Evans has a few things going for him that he did not have last year--* QB stability - Edwards won't be mistaken for Brady anytime soon, but he can play and I believe he'll be looking for Evans often* A legit #2 WR along side him - Granted Hardy is a rookie, but he is very talented and D's will have to respect him* A MUCH easier schedule - take a look at the Bills schedule this year* Contract year - yes, I said it againIt just amazes me how a guy who was taken in the top 10 at his position last year and all of a sudden he's yesterday's news. Watch out.

 

[FUBAR]

Lee Evans.. contract year.

Two things . . .1) there is no evidence that suggests players perform any better in a contract year vs. any other year. In the NFL, players are ALWAYS playing for a contract, because if they plkay poorly they could easily be cut.

2) Especially for WR, they have no control about playing any better. It's not like they can make the QB thrown them the ball more, make the line block better, or get the QB to throw more accurately. So a WR is along for the ride and can't really do more than he normally would.

David, do you truly believe that any player, even a WR, has NO CONTROL about playing better? I don't buy into the contract year thing either, but your #2 stinks.

 

[David Yudkin]

Lee Evans.. contract year.

Two things . . .1) there is no evidence that suggests players perform any better in a contract year vs. any other year. In the NFL, players are ALWAYS playing for a contract, because if they plkay poorly they could easily be cut.

2) Especially for WR, they have no control about playing any better. It's not like they can make the QB thrown them the ball more, make the line block better, or get the QB to throw more accurately. So a WR is along for the ride and can't really do more than he normally would.

David, do you truly believe that any player, even a WR, has NO CONTROL about playing better? I don't buy into the contract year thing either, but your #2 stinks.

Ask Keyshawn about wanting to do better and having to rely on the QB to do it. A WR is more a captive audience than other positions. If a WR played in every game and got his share of targets, I'm not sure that he can "crank it up" to get more targets just because he wants to.

 

[David Yudkin]

It just amazes me how a guy who was taken in the top 10 at his position last year and all of a sudden he's yesterday's news. Watch out.

How's that working out for Shaun Alexander?

 

[FUBAR]

Lee Evans.. contract year.

Two things . . .1) there is no evidence that suggests players perform any better in a contract year vs. any other year. In the NFL, players are ALWAYS playing for a contract, because if they plkay poorly they could easily be cut.

2) Especially for WR, they have no control about playing any better. It's not like they can make the QB thrown them the ball more, make the line block better, or get the QB to throw more accurately. So a WR is along for the ride and can't really do more than he normally would.

David, do you truly believe that any player, even a WR, has NO CONTROL about playing better? I don't buy into the contract year thing either, but your #2 stinks.

Ask Keyshawn about wanting to do better and having to rely on the QB to do it. A WR is more a captive audience than other positions. If a WR played in every game and got his share of targets, I'm not sure that he can "crank it up" to get more targets just because he wants to.

I see what you're saying, but it doesn't encompass the generic statement you made. IF we assume the WR has run perfect routes, has done everything the coach asks, and the only thing limiting him is, for some inexplicable reason, the QB just won't throw him the ball (or can't), then you're right. But if he can run more precise routes, concentrate better, or do just about anything else to improve his own game, the targets should, in most cases, also improve. Keyshawn already got his share, maybe Evans has too, but the statement as a whole is just too generic.

 

[ceo3west]

It just amazes me how a guy who was taken in the top 10 at his position last year and all of a sudden he's yesterday's news. Watch out.

How's that working out for Shaun Alexander?

Alexander isn't a 28 year old WR entering his prime.

 

[cstruk]

Bryant Johnson and Issac Bruce

Yes, let me have these two late and I have someone who can start as WR3 if not a WR2 even if it takes a week or two to figure out who it is.

 

[gianmarco]

It just amazes me how a guy who was taken in the top 10 at his position last year and all of a sudden he's yesterday's news. Watch out.

How's that working out for Shaun Alexander?

Alexander isn't a 28 year old WR entering his prime.

Which, of course, is much better than a 27 year old WR entering his prime.....

 

[David Yudkin]

Lee Evans.. contract year.

Two things . . .1) there is no evidence that suggests players perform any better in a contract year vs. any other year. In the NFL, players are ALWAYS playing for a contract, because if they plkay poorly they could easily be cut.2) Especially for WR, they have no control about playing any better. It's not like they can make the QB thrown them the ball more, make the line block better, or get the QB to throw more accurately. So a WR is along for the ride and can't really do more than he normally would.

I hear what you're saying, and I do know that there is a lack of evidence to suggest guys perform better in contract years. However, I do beleive that guys are more willing to play hurt in a contract year (IMO) which can be huge for a fantasy team. Also, I think Evans has a few things going for him that he did not have last year--* QB stability - Edwards won't be mistaken for Brady anytime soon, but he can play and I believe he'll be looking for Evans often* A legit #2 WR along side him - Granted Hardy is a rookie, but he is very talented and D's will have to respect him* A MUCH easier schedule - take a look at the Bills schedule this year* Contract year - yes, I said it againIt just amazes me how a guy who was taken in the top 10 at his position last year and all of a sudden he's yesterday's news. Watch out.

Another quirky thing about Evans . . .Top 10 scoring games in his career: 225 fantasy points (22.5 ppg)54 other games: 334 fantasy points (6.2 ppg)Talk about feast or famine.

 

[benm3218]

Colin - I loved your article. Great writeup, and actually all of your articles were. You are now one of my favorite writers. I thought your style of writing and your opinions were money.

 

[benm3218]

oh.... yeah.

Nate Burleson

Troy Smith

 

[BigSteelThrill]

This thread should be dedicated to Selvin Young.

 

[Nemesis Enforcer]

At WR I am monitoring:

Burleson

Bryant Johnson/I Bruce

J Walker

 

[FUBAR]

It just amazes me how a guy who was taken in the top 10 at his position last year and all of a sudden he's yesterday's news. Watch out.

How's that working out for Shaun Alexander?

Alexander isn't a 28 year old WR entering his prime.

Which, of course, is much better than a 27 year old WR entering his prime.....

True dat,A lot of Evans's value is tied up with Edwards now. If he can improve (and why wouldn't he?) Evans should as well. He's not a guy I'm pursuing, but he has the talent to be elite. Goes to Yudkin's point, if Evans had the luxury of playing with any of the top 10 QBs, he'd be $$$. Who knows, maybe he has another bad year but leaves Buffalo for greener pastures in 2009. Doesn't help in redraft, but as another article states, it often makes sense to look 1 year ahead in dynasty.

 

[ratbast]

QB- McNabby, PRivers, TJackson

RB- CBrown, PThomas, MBush

WR- Chambers, DBennett, JJones

TE- Watson, DLee, Pope

 

[lebowski]

Brandon Jacobs is a guy I will probably grab before most right now.

 

[travdogg]

QB's: McNabb, Young

RB's: Maroney, Turner, P.Thomas

WR's: Marshall, Bowe, V.Jackson

TE's: Heap, Watson

I think these guys are worth reaching for because they could all massively exceed their ADP's. That said they all have at least 1 troubling flaw.

 

[FUBAR]

QB- McNabby, PRivers, TJacksonRB- CBrown, PThomas, MBushWR- Chambers, DBennett, JJonesTE- Watson, DLee, Pope

Those are solid sleepers, but on;y McNabb, Chambers and maybe Watson meet the "high risk" part. The rest of those guys are hardly any risk, aside from using roster space.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

If you click over to the main site, you'll find my "Upside of Danger" article where I talk about finding players that are high-risk, uber-high reward. In the article I mention Vince Young, Darren McFadden, Chris Henry (WR), and Mike Williams (WR). I also think that players like Alex Smith, Plaxico Burress, Julius Jones, Santonio Holmes, and Aaron Rodgers qualify as players that are worth selecting a round (or 2) early just to insure they are on your team because they are in great spots to far exceed expectations...and you'd hate for some other team to get the dividends.Who are you thinking of overpaying for with the idea in mind that you'll look like a genius once the season ends?

Hey Colin, how's it going bud?. Couple questions/points I'd like to mention. I'm not on the same page with you in thinking that guys like Vince Young, Chris Henry and Mike Williams are high risk/high reward. What risk do I really have in drafting those guys who don't have a high enough ADP to really hurt your team. Vince Young out of that group probably would be picked highest, but I don't think many people are drafting him as their starting QB.To me, high risk and high reward are guys you have to draft relatively high and they have a chance to do real well or fail miserably. I think in round 1, Larry Johnson falls into that category.I also think Brandon Marshall is this type of player. He could easily finish in the top 10, possibly top 5 or this guy could screw up before the season starts. Any highly rated rookie running back qualifies, certainly Darren McFadden falls into that category. Aaron Rodgers is a no brainer and also on that list is Marc Bulger.The guy is a top 5 weekly talent at QB but is fragile.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Brandon Jacobs is a guy I will probably grab before most right now.

Ya, he's a boom or bust guy. If you could get what we saw towards the end of the season and playoffs last year all season long this year, he'd be a monster.

 

[Tanner9919]

If you click over to the main site, you'll find my "Upside of Danger" article where I talk about finding players that are high-risk, uber-high reward. In the article I mention Vince Young, Darren McFadden, Chris Henry (WR), and Mike Williams (WR). I also think that players like Alex Smith, Plaxico Burress, Julius Jones, Santonio Holmes, and Aaron Rodgers qualify as players that are worth selecting a round (or 2) early just to insure they are on your team because they are in great spots to far exceed expectations...and you'd hate for some other team to get the dividends.Who are you thinking of overpaying for with the idea in mind that you'll look like a genius once the season ends?

what does 'uber-high' mean? I think you're dead wrong on McFadden, he's closer to Clinton Portis than you think..Portis posted 1500 yards during his rookie campaign,it would not surprise me to see the same stats from McFadden this season..I'll overpay for Chris Brown, I think A. Green is finished. Brown has a lifetime avg of 4.3 per carry..combine that with OL coach Alex Gibbs , a zone blocking scheme, and Brown's blazing speed, and we're ready to light this candle.If Brown can (finally) stay healthy, he's in for a H-U-G-E year! Brandon Marshall is another guy I'll overpay for. Marshall could finish with 100+ recs and double digit TD's..Cutler - has finally arrived, questionable running game means more passing from Cutler..I'll take him a round early.. Owen Daniels - should finish in the TE top 3..Houston throws an awful lot, and with AJ constantly nursing injuries, Daniels should/could be the #1 receiver for Shaub/RosenfelsThomas Jones is going to enjoy his best season as a pro, possibly earning himself a spot in the Pro Bowl. The Jets o-line is going to be MUCH better than in previous years..I'll grab him earlier than most.Jonathan Stewart is going to be a stud right out of the gate..Not sure where you can expect him to go in fantasy drafts ( 3rd/4th round?), but I'll reach for him a bit earlier than that..

 

[Banger]

I might try and grab Shockey this year depending on where his ADP ends up. Brees has had success throwing to a TE (Gates) in the past, good passing offense and he's clearly the best #2 target among the WR's/TE's. Also keeping my eye on Crumpler.

WR wise I like Holmes a lot, Harrison is on my radar and Burleson is looking good at his ADP.

I think T. Jones is flying under the radar and will look to grab him as a #2/#3 rb. He's got little competition, a big improvement in their line, and they love to run the ball.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Chris Johnson, RB, Ten - I will be looking to grab him in the 7th round (possibly as early as the 6th) as I do not want to see him land on somebody else's team. I believe he is this year's Reggie Bush. I also think that he is the forgotten rookie right now. Maybe training camp and a couple pre-season games will change that perception among the FF world. In which case, I'll have to take him in the 6th if I want him.

Bryant Johnson, WR, SF - Not sure where I might get him, probably 8th round, as I do not see him lasting much longer. I also believe he will be the one WR on SF that benefits the most from a Martz led offense........I'm hoping SF's QB play improves enough to warrant this pick.

 

[TD Ryan]

Reggie Williams, WR Jax

Bryant Johnson, WR SF

both 1st round draft picks out of college who *may* now be in a position to live up to those 1st round expectations.

Speaking of Reggie Williams, has there ever been a fantasy WR whose ADP (11) is higher than his previous year's TD totals (10)?

 

[FUBAR]

Speaking of Reggie Williams, has there ever been a fantasy WR whose ADP (11) is higher than his previous year's TD totals (10)?

Please rephrase the question. I assume you mean 11th round, but even then, there's a LOT of WRs whose ADP is higher than their previous TDs. Most in fact.

 

[LILB811]

I'd throw Donald Driver on this list. Although I'm not really targeting him, he is still going pretty early in a lot of drafts. He had over 80 catches and over 1,000 yards last year. If his TD totals increase to even 7-8, he could be a great value. He could also be a huge bust.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Ronnie Brown - Ranked 30th by the staff, I'll overpay for a guy who was in 1st after 7 weeks last year.

 

[Bankerguy]

In no order:

Steve Smith

Maroney

Felix Jones

Aaron Rodgers

 

[Sylira21]

Andre Johnson. I already know of two owners in my league that want him bad enough to probably go over $25 ($200 cap) but I still want him.

Marion Barber. Still think he could get a major bump in numbers without JJ there.

Lawrence Maroney. The reason Brady won't throw 50 TDs this year is that Maroney will run for 12 (and Sammy Morris for 10) as Belichick tries to hide his secondary through time of possession.

 

[joffer]

Ronnie Brown - Ranked 30th by the staff, I'll overpay for a guy who was in 1st after 7 weeks last year.

only 10 months after "the tear"? no thx

 

[TD Ryan]

Please rephrase the question.

yeah, after re-reading that, I guess it is worded a bit goofy.but hopefully, you get the idea... it's not often that a player with double digit touchdowns is drafted in the 11th round.

 

[ratbast]

QB- McNabby, PRivers, TJacksonRB- CBrown, PThomas, MBushWR- Chambers, DBennett, JJonesTE- Watson, DLee, Pope

Those are solid sleepers, but on;y McNabb, Chambers and maybe Watson meet the "high risk" part. The rest of those guys are hardly any risk, aside from using roster space.

your picks:VY, Warner / LeinartChris Henry (RB)Bowe, HolmesSchefflerperhaps I read the thread wrong fubar, but after I saw yours I was inclined to go the route I did. Since I would take most of my guys before your picks doesn't that justify my post as being valuable to this thread?VY, Warner / Leinart vs. McNabby, PRivers, TJackson(thats a wash, but I would say McNabb is the biggest risk for where he'll go, I want Rivers and Jackson on my roster, isn't that overpaying?)Chris Henry (RB) vs. CBrown, PThomas, MBush(I might take all 3 before your choice, I win that one son)Bowe, Holmes vs. Chambers, DBennett, JJones(You win this position, you would have to take your choices much earlier)Scheffler vs. Watson, DLee, Pope(blahhh, so many TEs so little time)So we have a wash? Doesn't a "sleeper" and a "guy you'll overpay for" really mean the same thing in this context?

 

[TD Ryan]

Lawrence Maroney. The reason Brady won't throw 50 TDs this year is that Maroney will run for 12 (and Sammy Morris for 10) as Belichick tries to hide his secondary through time of possession.

Agreed that Brady won't throw for 50 and the NE cornerbacks may need some hiding.But keep in mind that New England was among the league leaders (4th ?) in time of possession last year.

 

[joffer]

Warner, Kevin Smith, Javon Walker

 

[Angry Beavers]

Stallworth

In the Browns system with Edwards and Winslow drawing a lot of coverage, I think he could be a very sevicable wr3/ low WR2.

 

[Colin Dowling]

If you click over to the main site, you'll find my "Upside of Danger" article where I talk about finding players that are high-risk, uber-high reward. In the article I mention Vince Young, Darren McFadden, Chris Henry (WR), and Mike Williams (WR). I also think that players like Alex Smith, Plaxico Burress, Julius Jones, Santonio Holmes, and Aaron Rodgers qualify as players that are worth selecting a round (or 2) early just to insure they are on your team because they are in great spots to far exceed expectations...and you'd hate for some other team to get the dividends.

Who are you thinking of overpaying for with the idea in mind that you'll look like a genius once the season ends?

Hey Colin, how's it going bud?.

Couple questions/points I'd like to mention. I'm not on the same page with you in thinking that guys like Vince Young, Chris Henry and Mike Williams are high risk/high reward. What risk do I really have in drafting those guys who don't have a high enough ADP to really hurt your team. Vince Young out of that group probably would be picked highest, but I don't think many people are drafting him as their starting QB.

To me, high risk and high reward are guys you have to draft relatively high and they have a chance to do real well or fail miserably. I think in round 1, Larry Johnson falls into that category.

Good point. The risk in Henry/Williams is that they may be a wasted roster spot entirely. Not a lot of risk, but a little nonetheless.I think Young is a player where at least one owner in every 12 team league will seek him out as their starter. I think his ADP will increase as we get closer to the season.

what does 'uber-high' mean? rolleyes1.gif

I think you're dead wrong on McFadden, he's closer to Clinton Portis than you think..Portis posted 1500 yards during his rookie campaign,it would not surprise me to see the same stats from McFadden this season..

I'm confused about your McFadden comment. What I'm saying is he indeed does have a good chance to far outperform his ADP (22 right now I think) and gambling on grabbing him much earlier to ensure he's on your team could pay huge dividends.