What to do about wide variation in site rankings (1 Viewer)

[wildwombat]

First post, so I am sure that this has been well covered in the past.

I understand that the Upgrade/Downgrade article is written by Sigmund Bloom and the Rest of Season Rankings in the League Dominator are based on the consensus rankings of different people, but I just do not understand how to reconcile them.  Yes, I know that it is all my decision to make based on the insight provided by the staff here, but still ...

The Upgrade/Downgrade article says:

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (waiver wire: 50+%)
WR Jarvis Landry, CLE (waiver wire: DROP FOR 15-30% OR HIGHER)

Obviously, I should drop Jarvis Landry and pick up Elijah Moore.

But, the League Dominator "Rest of Year" rankings (my 10 Team Re-Draft league rules are basically no-PPR for WRs) within RB-WR-TE Flex are:

100. Jarvis Landry
160. Elijah Moore

Obviously, I should keep Landry!

So, by Upgrade/Downgrade it is a no-brainer:  drop Landry and pick up Moore
and by Rest of Year it is a no-brainer:  keep Landry.

I know that there is no answer.  Or I already gave it:  it is my decision what to do.  But this really makes me scratch my head!

Now, if Matt Waldman provided Rest-of Season and/or Upgrade/Downgrade recommendations, it would be a different kind of no-brainer:  go with what Matt says.  (Yeah, I stacked some Bucs.)

 

[tigerz]

Dude, don't take these upgrade downgrade or ROS rankings too seriously. If FF was as easy as just doing what an analyst told you, all of us on this forum would be fantasy champions every year. You can't reconcile these lists as if it was an unbalanced checkbook.

First, Blooms upgrade % are all opinions and thrown off the hip based on who he feels has the *potential* to be huge. He's not saying Elijah is a for sure must start rest of year. He's saying he has a decent shot that if you want to gamble 50% go ahead. Elijah Moore has 50% because he's a rookie who had a big game. Bloom values upside of guys like this too highly. He did the same for Rondale Moore / Bryan Edwards / Kadarius Toney. I know, I have all of them and picked them up numerous times. However, I never spent 50% and most people won't. You can probably get him for 5% because he has no history and can just as easily bust next week. The only guys who consistently get 50% or more are RBs whose starter just went down. Even then, they aren't sure things (see Damien Williams / Herbert). Best bet, if someone is 50% put a waiver bid on him but do it for value. There is like 4-5 other 50% bids in that article and if your entire league 50% bid every week none of you would have money by now.

Jarvis Landry - I honestly don't follow Landry or the Browns WRs. If I value a guy highly and think he can bust out any game then I don't drop him unless I value the potential upside of the guy I drop him for more. If you like Landry, don't drop him. 

Also, ROS rankings tend to favor draft evaluations more so they are very slow to update. By the time it values Moore high its because he has a track record of 3-4 games that were good. If you wait until then they are gone. So if you like a guy, you have to take a shot on them early, not after they are ranked highly in the season ranker. 

ROS Rankers really just more of a feel good about your team type of thing. i.e. I have all these studs and these are where they are compared to draft and if I was going to trade for someone. Waivers are probably better for people with low rankings in 100s like these guys who are all bench upside players who you don't start every week. I mean do you really think anyone can tell the future enough to tell who is going to be rank 100 and who is going to be ranked 160? It's hard enough to rank the top 10 ROS at end of year for each position.

 

[themeistersinger]

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
― Yogi Berra

 

[Deamon]

First post, so I am sure that this has been well covered in the past.

I understand that the Upgrade/Downgrade article is written by Sigmund Bloom and the Rest of Season Rankings in the League Dominator are based on the consensus rankings of different people, but I just do not understand how to reconcile them.  Yes, I know that it is all my decision to make based on the insight provided by the staff here, but still ...

The Upgrade/Downgrade article says:

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (waiver wire: 50+%)
WR Jarvis Landry, CLE (waiver wire: DROP FOR 15-30% OR HIGHER)

Obviously, I should drop Jarvis Landry and pick up Elijah Moore.

But, the League Dominator "Rest of Year" rankings (my 10 Team Re-Draft league rules are basically no-PPR for WRs) within RB-WR-TE Flex are:

100. Jarvis Landry
160. Elijah Moore

Obviously, I should keep Landry!

So, by Upgrade/Downgrade it is a no-brainer:  drop Landry and pick up Moore
and by Rest of Year it is a no-brainer:  keep Landry.

I know that there is no answer.  Or I already gave it:  it is my decision what to do.  But this really makes me scratch my head!

Now, if Matt Waldman provided Rest-of Season and/or Upgrade/Downgrade recommendations, it would be a different kind of no-brainer:  go with what Matt says.  (Yeah, I stacked some Bucs.)

I also noticed this discrepancy with Elijah Moore.  All the unhelpful "do your own research" posts aside, it is a bit confusing.  I fully understand that they are different analysts doing those different parts of the site, but it does seem weird to see a FBG staffer recommending 50% FAAB on Moore, and another saying he's not even worth picking up (on the Top 200 forward he's way down the list below many many other FA WR's)

@Joe Bryant, I know it's different analysts, but is there a possible solution for such a huge discrepancy on a certain player between staffers?

 

[GreenNGold]

I agree, the site should have more of a general consensus and not such wide discrepancies between the main places to look for information.

I don't think the "do your own research thing" applies here, as we are trying to do research by paying for and coming to this site, and then are getting conflicting information. 

 

[UFFLCommish]

I think there's an issue with the Rest of Season rankings. They probably shouldn't have been published.

Many examples ... No Eno Benjamin but Chandler Cox and Jason Cabinda are listed. Have no idea who they are.

 

[tigerz]

For what it’s worth I didn’t think my post was an unhelpful do your own research so not sure how I came across that way. I truly believe that If you use the information incorrectly it will harm you more than help you. I was trying to add some perspective on how I use the information available and why I think it makes sense that they don’t match and won’t reconcile.

One is for waivers which need to be immediate, and the other is full season projections that take time and need to be based on larger sample sizes than one breakout game.

 

[Catbird]

If there were a site one could go to and get the correct evaluation of players, that would be the end of fantasy football. Would you pay what they charged to have that information? If not, would you bet money against people who had that information?

I much prefer getting different views on the same guy. If one FBG has Elijah really high, compared to others, that's a reason to read what he has said lately and you will usually find out why. Maybe his weekly targets have doubled for no apparent reason of late and the one guy, who had high expectations for the receiver saw this change coming while others haven't yet noticed because it hasn't changed his weekly yardage that dramatically as yet. You have to consider that if one guy has him at WR 30, he may be the first to know. Or maybe he talked to a coach who was the first guy to realize what they have. If one guy has him as WR 30 and 2 other guys have him as WR 90, they could just blend everything to an average of WR 70, but that doesn't tell me nearly as much as the three valuations. If you get to know what different columnists favor and who you are better able to trust, that all helps. 

I think one of the differences between fantasy players is how much they look beyond ranking numbers and try to figure out what those tell you that just averaging them doesn't.  If all you want is ranking numbers, go to sources like the FBG weekly projections which blend several guys' calculations. That should be more than enough to compete with players who don't do even that. And don't play for money with those who will do far more study than that.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bloom's upgrade/downgrade article always has been a regurgitation of the box scores and injury report from the day before.  In the past I've pointed out numerous examples where a player is on the downgrade list one week and the upgrade the next or vice versa.  This article has always been good for a snapshot of the previous week.  I know in year's past going to the other staff's ROS projections was the smart thing to do to get advice and deeper analysis.  I haven't followed it as closely this year so I don't know if Dodd's departure has impacted that statement.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for the feedback folks.

Sigmund Bloom's Upgrade/Downgrade article  is a long running feature that's a foundational weekly piece for all we do. I couldn't disagree more with @BassNBrew's comments that it's some sort of "regurgitation" but fully get everyone can have their own opinion. For years, Sigmund's made this one of the more thoughtful and helpful pieces of weekly fantasy football content on the internet in my opinion. He also does the weekly podcast with Cecil covering the players in more detail. https://www.footballguys.com/podcast/the-audible-week-10-waiver-wire-show-fantasy-football-2021. And this year he's added a condensed version as well. Here's this weeks: https://www.footballguys.com/podcast/should-you-break-the-bank-with-elijah-moore-fantasy-football-2021.   I think it's some of the very best work we do.

The Rest of Season rankings are done by our Bob Henry who has done these forever. Bob had always done these solo. Nobody else, including David had ever done Rest of Season projections. But this year, in an effort to make them even stronger, we added Justin Freeman to do the projections as well to go along with Bob's. A second voice is a positive and it's worked just as I'd hoped with both these projectors making the other better. 

The Rest of Season are exactly that. Rest of Season. Where with Sigmund's there is often a much shorter window of picking this player up for a one week or short period of time. That's a big part of the discrepency.

Another big part is obviously, different people will have different opinions and valuations for a player. 

This isn't about "Do your own research" in the least. This is about us trying to bring you as much solid information from people in the industry who're excellent at this. And the reality is for every team, there are tons of nuances. Two teams with different builds and rosters and outlooks can easily have very different valuations for the same waiver wire pickup. 

I know that's not maybe the "definitive pick up this person" black and white answer some might prefer. But I think this way is the strongest way to present our opinions.

WITH THAT SAID, we're not perfect. And it's always possible we have an internal tech or database error that's causing something to be wrong. If we don't have a player listed or something looks off more than just a difference of opinion, please let me know with a PM here. An error is very different from a difference in opinion. Thanks. 

 

[zed2283]

Bloom's upgrade/downgrade article always has been a regurgitation of the box scores and injury report from the day before.  In the past I've pointed out numerous examples where a player is on the downgrade list one week and the upgrade the next or vice versa.  This article has always been good for a snapshot of the previous week.  I know in year's past going to the other staff's ROS projections was the smart thing to do to get advice and deeper analysis.  I haven't followed it as closely this year so I don't know if Dodd's departure has impacted that statement.

Totally agree with this (and respectfully disagree with Joe).  The Upgrade/Downgrade is always basically a "these players had good games yesterday and these players had bad games yesterday."  The information contained in the writeups is good and it's worth the read to help you make decisions, but you should ignore the waiver recommendation section at the beginning.  Like BassNBrew said, if you followed that advice you'd spend all your $ picking up and dropping the same player multiple times.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Totally agree with this (and respectfully disagree with Joe).  The Upgrade/Downgrade is always basically a "these players had good games yesterday and these players had bad games yesterday."  The information contained in the writeups is good and it's worth the read to help you make decisions, but you should ignore the waiver recommendation section at the beginning.  Like BassNBrew said, if you followed that advice you'd spend all your $ picking up and dropping the same player multiple times.

Thanks. We'll just disagree there but I appreciate the feedback. Sigmund's writing on following the upgrade and downgrade (both of which naturally happen often to multiple players throughout the year - few remain exactly level) is one of the most valuable features we do. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

For the look back at the past week idea, that's extremely valuable of course and we do that with the What You Need To Know From Week ______ feature. Here is this weeks https://www.footballguys.com/article/2021-need-to-know-week-10

And then Sigmund and Cecil do a deep run down on the Recap show each week. Here's this weeks https://www.footballguys.com/podcast/the-audible-week-9-recap-fantasy-football-2021

Hope those are helpful. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Bloom quote: "Look for other defenses to copy them and limit Allen's upside going forward. "

Front page of FBG right now...

RANKINGS

                             Overall                             Quarterback                             Running Back                             Wide Receiver                             Tight End                             Flex                             Super Flex                             IDP                             Kicker                             Team Defense                             Defensive Line                             Defensive Tackle                             Defensive End                             Linebacker                             Inside Linebacker                             Outside Linebacker                             Defensive Back                             Cornerback                             Safety                             Offensive Line                     

RKPOSPLAYERAVG

1QBJosh Allen BUF1.3

 

[BassNBrew]

Week 9

Upgrade

QB Tyrod Taylor, HOU - (waiver wire: 10-20%) - Taylor not being ready this week is a bit of a yellow flag, but his fantasy upside as a running quarterback who will also be playing from behind a lot is undeniable. Add him in hopes that he'll return to face Miami if he hasn't been added yet in your league.

Downgrade

QB Justin Herbert, LAC - Herbert is in a slump. He should be a solid play against the Eagles, but he isn't the every-week fantasy QB1 we hoped for, and should only be plugged in against good matchups like the one he has in Week 9.

Upgrade

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN - (waiver wire: 15-30%) - Boyd had a strong game as the Bengals' passing attack was as evenly distributed among the top three receivers as it has been all year. Even if this isn't sure to become a trend, Boyd is talented enough to merit a pickup to make sure no one else can benefit from it if it does persist.

Week 10

Downgrade

QB Tyrod Taylor, HOU - (waiver wire: DROP IN 1QB, HOLD IN 2QB/SUPERFLEX) - Taylor had one of the worst interceptions of the year and otherwise added very little to the Texans offense in his return to the lineup. He is worth holding as depth in 2QB/Superflex but his hot start as a fantasy quarterback is a distant memory heading into his bye.

Upgrade

QB Justin Herbert, LAC - Herbert willed the Chargers to a win against the woeful Eagles pass defense and helped fantasy teams win in Weird Week 9 in the process. Next, he'll face a tired Vikings defense that Lamar Jackson outlasted.

Downgrade

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN - (waiver wire: DROP) - Boyd retreated to the background of the Bengals passing game after his Week 8 outburst, squashing any hope of sustained fantasy value. He hasn't given us reasons to carry him through his bye.

I was told to use 40% of my WW budget on two players that are drops the following week.  This is particularly frustrating as a subscriber related to Boyd.  "He hasn't given us reasons to carry him through his bye."  Actually he has,  "Even if this isn't sure to become a trend, Boyd is talented enough to merit a pickup".  

I know Joe thinks this is some of the best content FBGs offers, we'll just disagree.  I've always thought the Bloom article should be titled in a way to reflect it being a week in review/recap.  Any "upgrade/downgrade" article should be well thought out and hone in on picks you will stand behind for more than a week.  I really like the undervalued/overvalued format where players that numerous FBG experts agree on are discussed. highlighted.

 

[wildwombat]

[snip...]The Rest of Season are exactly that. Rest of Season. Where with Sigmund's there is often a much shorter window of picking this player up for a one week or short period of time. That's a big part of the discrepency [...snip].

Thanks.  That is the explanation I wanted.

I appreciate all of the responses.  Yes, I do my own research and I did answer my own question:  it is up to me to make the decision based upon the resources here and elsewhere.  I look at other sources beyond FBG.  I look at all of the non-DFS sources here at FBG (and some of them too, but not nearly as regularly). 

Thanks to everybody that replied. to my post  My intention was not to start any sort of controversy or anything, I was just curious about the discrepancy.  Perhaps I haven't dug as deep until this week, but it seemed larger than others I have noticed.  There is probably somewhere on the site that says exactly what I quoted above and I missed or have forgotten it.

(I do still want more stuff by Matt Waldman though, lol.)

 

[Tom Hagen]

Thanks. We'll just disagree there but I appreciate the feedback. Sigmund's writing on following the upgrade and downgrade (both of which naturally happen often to multiple players throughout the year - few remain exactly level) is one of the most valuable features we do. 

Bloom does fantastic work and I don't want this to seem overly critical but the Upgrade\Downgrade seems too over reactionary to me also.  After Brady's only bad week of the season Bloom downgraded him and wrote

Brady fizzled out in the red zone without Rob Gronkowski, and just wasn't a very dangerous quarterback against his old team in his old stomping grounds. He's more boom/bust QB1 than the elite QB1 he looked like after two weeks, but still worth a look against the Dolphins in Week 5.

One bad week against Belichik and he's "boom or bust"? I just feel like upgrades and downgrades should be based on multi game trends (other than injuries).

 

[zed2283]

Thanks. We'll just disagree there but I appreciate the feedback. Sigmund's writing on following the upgrade and downgrade (both of which naturally happen often to multiple players throughout the year - few remain exactly level) is one of the most valuable features we do. 

I know Joe thinks this is some of the best content FBGs offers, we'll just disagree.  I've always thought the Bloom article should be titled in a way to reflect it being a week in review/recap.  Any "upgrade/downgrade" article should be well thought out and hone in on picks you will stand behind for more than a week.  I really like the undervalued/overvalued format where players that numerous FBG experts agree on are discussed. highlighted.

Yeah, I think maybe it's the "Upgrade/Downgrade" moniker that I have an issue with.  It sets the expectation that there's a trend that's going to be revealed to me that will help me make better decisions.  The reality is that it's not about any trend, it's as short-term as it gets.  Maybe it just needs to be renamed.  Like I said, the write-ups are good and have useful information in there to help with decision making.  But the waiver section should be ignored.

 

[zed2283]

For the look back at the past week idea, that's extremely valuable of course and we do that with the What You Need To Know From Week ______ feature. Here is this weeks https://www.footballguys.com/article/2021-need-to-know-week-10

This is pretty new, right?  I like it a lot.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Yeah, I think maybe it's the "Upgrade/Downgrade" moniker that I have an issue with.  It sets the expectation that there's a trend that's going to be revealed to me that will help me make better decisions.  The reality is that it's not about any trend, it's as short-term as it gets.  Maybe it just needs to be renamed.  Like I said, the write-ups are good and have useful information in there to help with decision making.  But the waiver section should be ignored.

Thanks. I do wonder if the messaging should be different. It's more of a "stock up / stock down thing. We'll look at that for the future. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

This is pretty new, right?  I like it a lot.

Yes, pretty new as we started it for 2020. I love it too. Thanks. 

 

[Team Smokin']

Be nice if we had a crystal ball. No one can predict what may or may not happen. I use the tools to find available trends then use this forum to get everyone's input. Sometimes it works out, sometimes not. All in all FBG's aid in my decision making process. Sometimes gut tells me to start a lesser ranked player. Be nice to go with the flow. Sometimes it takes awhile for a stud player to fall and an up and comer to rise, i.e., Diggs / T Hill and M Carter / C Patterson.

Edit: Sometimes players just aren't panning out in rankings like Claypool or Gainwell, and other times we get more than expected like Pittman and Fournette. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks.  That is the explanation I wanted.

I appreciate all of the responses.  Yes, I do my own research and I did answer my own question:  it is up to me to make the decision based upon the resources here and elsewhere.  I look at other sources beyond FBG.  I look at all of the non-DFS sources here at FBG (and some of them too, but not nearly as regularly). 

Thanks to everybody that replied. to my post  My intention was not to start any sort of controversy or anything, I was just curious about the discrepancy.  Perhaps I haven't dug as deep until this week, but it seemed larger than others I have noticed.  There is probably somewhere on the site that says exactly what I quoted above and I missed or have forgotten it.

(I do still want more stuff by Matt Waldman though, lol.)

Thanks. I always want more Matt Waldman too!

 

[themeistersinger]

The best thing about the upgrade / downgrade report is that there is a comment for every player.  So you know why Sig is making that recommendation.  

You also need to understand the personality of the ranker.  Sig is very enthusiastic when he spots a trend - to a fault I think.  But he is what he is, and some times (like anybody predicting the future) he is totally spot on even when swimming against the tide of opinion.

The other thing to keep in mind for fantasy people throughout the industry, not just Sig, is they play in all kinds of deep leagues and dynasty leagues among themselves, so they get super excited about a shiny new toy whenever one appears.  If your roster is 30 players and a guy appears to be worth something, and he is actually on waivers in your league, that's a unicorn and you are going to flip over it.  So if you listen to a lot of analysts (and I do, not just from FBG), they will all tend to get pumped together about a guy that might really not be all that.

The Upgrade / Downgrade podcast is must listen for me each week, as is On the Couch.  

 

[tigerz]

The best thing about the upgrade / downgrade report is that there is a comment for every player.  So you know why Sig is making that recommendation.  

You also need to understand the personality of the ranker.  Sig is very enthusiastic when he spots a trend - to a fault I think.  But he is what he is, and some times (like anybody predicting the future) he is totally spot on even when swimming against the tide of opinion.

The other thing to keep in mind for fantasy people throughout the industry, not just Sig, is they play in all kinds of deep leagues and dynasty leagues among themselves, so they get super excited about a shiny new toy whenever one appears.  If your roster is 30 players and a guy appears to be worth something, and he is actually on waivers in your league, that's a unicorn and you are going to flip over it.  So if you listen to a lot of analysts (and I do, not just from FBG), they will all tend to get pumped together about a guy that might really not be all that.

The Upgrade / Downgrade podcast is must listen for me each week, as is On the Couch.  

yeah agree with this. There is value to be had in the report. Not all of us have time to watch every game so I like to see a list of all players who may be bid on this week and formulate my own opinions. I like seeing blooms opinion even if I disagree with valuation because it gives me another perspective and that’s what I pay for.

agree that stock up or down is more accurate for non waiver players. Don’t really use that as much because I don’t trade but does make me feel better about players I have or help me decide whether a player may become droppable.

It really is important to understand the perspectives of the analyst themselves like you point out. It provides color to the analysis because everyone has strengths and weaknesses and approach.

maybe it would be nice to have each writer do an about me page or something where they explain their approach and style so we can see why they value some players more highly and better follow analysts whose perspectives we agree with and if no, at least know where they are coming from.

 

[BassNBrew]

Thanks. I do wonder if the messaging should be different. It's more of a "stock up / stock down thing. We'll look at that for the future. 

That may be you're solution.  Stock up / stock down this week.

I always felt like this article should be accompanied by  ROS adjustment by the site.  Boyd was 46 in week 8,  48 in week 9, and 49 this week.  Bloom upgrades Boyd and Henry/Freeman bump him down two spots.  Bloom says he's droppable this week but Henry/Freeman have him as a borderline WR4.  I realize you have a lot of opinions on the payroll, but I would really like to see a couple of weekly articles where the FBG flag is planted.  Our experts have collaborated and this is our advice or information that is a priority this week.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The best thing about the upgrade / downgrade report is that there is a comment for every player.  So you know why Sig is making that recommendation.  

You also need to understand the personality of the ranker.  Sig is very enthusiastic when he spots a trend - to a fault I think.  But he is what he is, and some times (like anybody predicting the future) he is totally spot on even when swimming against the tide of opinion.

The other thing to keep in mind for fantasy people throughout the industry, not just Sig, is they play in all kinds of deep leagues and dynasty leagues among themselves, so they get super excited about a shiny new toy whenever one appears.  If your roster is 30 players and a guy appears to be worth something, and he is actually on waivers in your league, that's a unicorn and you are going to flip over it.  So if you listen to a lot of analysts (and I do, not just from FBG), they will all tend to get pumped together about a guy that might really not be all that.

The Upgrade / Downgrade podcast is must listen for me each week, as is On the Couch.  

Thanks. That's how I see it as well.