Sorry for the somewhat redundant thread, CSTU...
though the other one (Countdown to the #1 Pick) has more of a Rams emphasis...
cross-posted from there (the link noted below can be found in the first handful of posts in the other thread).
also, this would seem to be inexact... the full 16 game SOS can be projected for opponents records AS OF TODAY... but they could change in the next month... some of the gaps are small (JAX at .503 and STL/WAS at .516... also HOU at .550 and ATL at .553)... so perhaps this could get shuffled some more in the coming weeks, but with things increasingly getting locked in if the numbers hold up, as we approach the last game?
Thanks, JaxBill...
When I clicked on the link on my ipad, i saw the following screen...
1) HOU .550
2) JAX .503
3) STL/WAS .516
4) ATL .553
5 )TB .582
These are the full season SOS calculations.
IF HOU loses Thur., JAX gets bounced from this cluster (they will have four wins)... making STL #2 (if WAS loses out, and HOU goes winless last three games).
IF HOU wins, JAX would be #1 on SOS (if they don't win last three games), STL #2 (WAS loses out) and HOU #3 (if they are winless last three games).
so it looks like STL is positioned to be #2 no matter what happens Thur night (even accounting for the full season, SOS numbers).
If HOU loses Thur but wins just one of the three remaining games, STL would be in position for #1 with the same record but on the SOS tiebreaker.
If JAX loses Thur, but wins just one of the three remaining games, STL would be in position for #1 with worse record relative to JAX.
Every game is big in the last month, but the only other instance in which two from this group face each other, besides HOU/JAX Thur...
The ATL/WAS game in a few weeks. Obviously ATL MUST win for STL to remain in position for no worse than the #2 pick (if WAS also loses to KC, DAL & NYG again)... with upside for #1 if the LOSING team Thur night (doesn't matter which) wins one more of the remaining three.
One reason ATL has fallen so hard is injuries to star WR tandem Roddy White and Julio Jones. The latter of course on IR, but White returned Sunday and had a season high 10 catches for a season high 143 yards (on 14 targets), so he is talented enough to be the difference in the game by his presence when the Falcons face the Redskins. He has been dealing with a high ankle sprain (and hamstring) suffered in preseason (being shut down in weeks 7-9 were the first three missed games of his career?). His 10 catches were four more than his previous three games COMBINED, so hopefully he is getting healthy at the right time (for STL purposes).