mr roboto
Footballguy
Top 5 dynasty TE for a while.
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What's up with Da'rick Rogers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
- Start date
Ok.......21 touches, tells me he aint in the playbook.
When he went off against the Bengals.....they were down by 21, and its almost as if they were in desperation mode. Down on wrs, bottom of the barrel in terms of healthy bodies, but, Rogers did light it up. He looked darn good in those brief opps.
Guys are dogging on the poor showing, and I get that. I will say this. His two 'drops' were contested catches. Contact as soon as the ball got there. They were good defensive plays.
But Match nailed it earlier. He was talking smack lined up pre snap, and you cant do that. Needs to mature a lot for our little project to work here, heres hoping he does.
When he went off against the Bengals.....they were down by 21, and its almost as if they were in desperation mode. Down on wrs, bottom of the barrel in terms of healthy bodies, but, Rogers did light it up. He looked darn good in those brief opps.
Guys are dogging on the poor showing, and I get that. I will say this. His two 'drops' were contested catches. Contact as soon as the ball got there. They were good defensive plays.
But Match nailed it earlier. He was talking smack lined up pre snap, and you cant do that. Needs to mature a lot for our little project to work here, heres hoping he does.
DropKick
Footballguy
"Top 5 dynasty TE" is something based on age and projections. Finley never lived up to that hype and his single ~750 yard, 8 TD will likely be the peak of his career. Granted, those are respectable numbers for a TE but people still expected more being in that prolific offensive system.Top 5 dynasty TE for a while.
All the other guys you mentioned (Roddy, Turner, Romo, Foster) produced far more consistently.
mr roboto
Footballguy
OK. That's not the point. The point is, at one time, I was sitting on a guy valued as a top 5 dynasty TE who I picked up off the WW. I could have gotten a mid-1st for him if I wanted to at that time. Forget Finley though. I just can't stand the lazy analysis from some (not saying you drop) that if a guy is undrafted or has concerns that he's not worth a flier. Talented players are worth the wait until you know they aren't going to produce. Rogers was a top 3 talent in the draft class. And he's on a team with a young franchise QB, veteran future HOF WR and supposedly a different attitude. If next year he blows up, I'm sitting on a top 15 dynasty WR. If not, back to the WW he goes."Top 5 dynasty TE" is something based on age and projections. Finley never lived up to that hype and his single ~750 yard, 8 TD will likely be the peak of his career. Granted, those are respectable numbers for a TE but people still expected more being in that prolific offensive system.Top 5 dynasty TE for a while.
All the other guys you mentioned (Roddy, Turner, Romo, Foster) produced far more consistently.
Read an article yesterday that pertained to Reggie Wayne commenting on growth of young Colt's WR's. May mean nothing but I could not help but notice Wayne only mentioned Hilton and Brazil by name: http://www.colts.com/news/article-1/Reggie-Wayne-Eager-to-Re-Join-Young-Receivers/5c4d7ee1-4282-46c1-b8de-fb7a5216b907
Rogers has some skills but at ended the season playing far less than Brazil and Whalen. Add Wayne to the mix and throw in Allen and I'm having a hard time seeing Rogers breaking through next season.
Out of these 3 possible outcomes for next season here this is what I feel most likely to occur:
1. Makes the team as 4th or 5th WR. Won't break out, be anyone you put in your lineup and won't be active every week.
2. Gets cut.
3. Breaks out
Rogers has some skills but at ended the season playing far less than Brazil and Whalen. Add Wayne to the mix and throw in Allen and I'm having a hard time seeing Rogers breaking through next season.
Out of these 3 possible outcomes for next season here this is what I feel most likely to occur:
1. Makes the team as 4th or 5th WR. Won't break out, be anyone you put in your lineup and won't be active every week.
2. Gets cut.
3. Breaks out
Louche
Footballguy
There will be competition. Regardless. Best case for Rogers they only bring in a few UDFAs and/or a late round rookie. Worst case they go after a top free agent WR or spend a 2nd round draft pick. I can guarantee that they will not spend a 1st round draft pick considering that they don't have one. And in terms of free agents they spent a lot of money last offseason on rather average players and need to start saving cap space for Luck. Keep in mind that Rogers salary is cheap and the Colts have traded away both their 1st and 4th round draft picks. With Wayne and Allen coming back they have more pressing concerns than WR (multiple needs on the interior O line, ILB, safety, CB, defensive line). Considering how poor their defense was, and how effective their offense was even with a poor offensive line, It would shock me if they draft a WR high in the draft.
It will be interesting to see how they approach the draft but the biggest threat to Da'Rick Rogers is likely to be Da'Rick Rogers - how committed he is and how much he can improve over the offseason. If he doesn't screw up over the offseason he will get his chances regardless of who they bring in for competition. He gives them a skill set that is very different from Wayne and Hilton and he flashed enough potential to deserve opportunities next season. But...like several have mentioned it is not like people have been frantically trading for Rogers. Most owners have gotten him very cheap, often off waivers, and his risk/reward needs to be seen in light of that. Currently he holds little trade value so he is an obvious hold in my eyes if one has a roster spot available: high risk, high potential, low trade value = hold and see how it develops.
It will be interesting to see how they approach the draft but the biggest threat to Da'Rick Rogers is likely to be Da'Rick Rogers - how committed he is and how much he can improve over the offseason. If he doesn't screw up over the offseason he will get his chances regardless of who they bring in for competition. He gives them a skill set that is very different from Wayne and Hilton and he flashed enough potential to deserve opportunities next season. But...like several have mentioned it is not like people have been frantically trading for Rogers. Most owners have gotten him very cheap, often off waivers, and his risk/reward needs to be seen in light of that. Currently he holds little trade value so he is an obvious hold in my eyes if one has a roster spot available: high risk, high potential, low trade value = hold and see how it develops.
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I see this popular opinion a lot. That the benefit of a whole training camp will help him and it should still I see a hole in this theory. If the longer he practices/plays leads to him grasping the system better and becoming a better and a more trusted option in the passing game why was his playing time decreasing as the season went on in favor of the Brazil and Whalen? That's the hole I see in this theory. Out of these options he was the least familiar with the system last year so in theory the more he played and learned should have equated to more playing time, not less.
amnesiac
beer is good
they don't have a first rounder at this time.
Slider
Footballguy
Both of the others were on the team and went through two TC's and all the meetings. Rogers saw none of this. His abilities as shown at the combine and against the Bengals are way better than those two. They were much more comfortable with the O while he was getting by on talent. Once he gets comfortable and trains with them through camp he will pass them. He was signed in September then dropped and signed again. He basically had no practice with Luck before being thrown into games. Not many are going to even play under those circumstances.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I think his point was more that there was downward trend at the end of the season, where you would expect to see an upward trend based on the assumptions in this situation. For a few weeks, he was playing quite a bit, then, at the end of the season, for no obvious reason, he was not.
Could just be small sample size issues, but to me, it's a valid question. As an owner, I'm tempted to sell to someone who might think his ascendance is right around the corner. I'm not sure I buy it.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
That was my point.
amnesiac
beer is good
ok. sorry. it's still possible, but unlikely they invest a top 2-3 round pick in a WR imo.That was my point.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Sorry, not the way it generally works. One season not be enough to go on, but it's what we have. If we "give it a season", he could have ZERO value, or he could be a mega-stud. So owners looking to possibly sell (like me) and folks LOOKING to own him at a reasonable price, need to make their decisions now. If you own and thing he'll drop based on what you've seen, you have to sell now. If you don't own and think he will go up, you have to buy now. If you own and think he will go up, good for you.
So the question becomes "Does a small trend have any predictive power at all?". You fall on the side of no, but it's a valid question to me. I think it might.
loose circuits
Footballguy
The bottomline is that the risk had to.be worth the reward. All depends on what you can get for him, but I like the lotto ticket
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
We do remember he was graded out as a early second round talent by many last year, right?Even if they draft another WR early why do we assume he will have more talent than Rodgers. The attitude is the question mark, not the talent(I'm sure that phrase has been beaten down by now though).
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Hoss Style
Footballguy
I change my point of view.
I had read (don't ask me where, I don't remember - sorry :( ) that he was used less late in the season because the games were very important and the coaches didn't want to have a guy in there who was still grasping the intricacies of the offense.
In the playoffs (or the end of the season "playoff games") small mistakes can cost you seeding or even a playoff spot altogether. Familiarity of the offence takes precedence over "talent" - especially raw talent.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Why is this so hard? High upside....young misfit trying to straighten out...great position to produce if that happens...young stud QB. The only people that should be barking are those that paid a pretty penny to get him. He was a waiver pickup for me. Still not expecting much but exactly what you want at the end of the roster....low cost huge upside.
bonesman
Footballguy
Those that had their rookie draft before the NFL's probably paid a late first/early second, if not more.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
It's not hard. I don't see much "barking". Just a discussion of where the guy might go from here.King of the Jungle said:
If you got him cheap and want to hang on to him, more power to you. I don't think anyone's going to call anyone an idiot for taking that position. But like I said before, the "issue" is his current value vs his projected value (as many of these dynasty type discussions boil down to). There is an opportunity here to cash in, and the main debate as I see it is whether you should take that opportunity or not. On the other end, there is an opportunity to buy fairly cheaply if that is of interest.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
I am curious to hear what people consider his current value to be, using 2014 rookie picks as a guide. I currently own Rogers as a cheap waiver pickup in 4 of 7 leagues and think fair value is a mid-2nd 2014 rookie pick. I probably wouldn't sell unless I got a late first. Given that this appears to be a pretty deep draft, that Rogers did show something in 2013, and he has a high variance of outcomes, what do FBG posters think and are you buying or selling at your perceived fair market value for Rogers?
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Mookie
Footballguy
I value him like a 3rd/4th round draftee who played sparingly as a rookie. He's got high 2nd round talent and has made some plays, but that gets discounted by his off the field issues as well as the Colts lack of investment in him. I'll hold and see what news comes out during the offseason, and will take any deals from owners who over-value him, before making a decision on whether he takes up a roster spot in the Fall. I will dump him if the news is bad or if something better comes along in my rookie draft.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I own him in two leagues, and I am seeing there are pockets of owners that value him at late 1st this year. I'd take probably take that, or a high 2nd. Less than that, and I start considering just hanging on to him depending on how deep the league is. I'd rather have him as a flyer than trade him for a random 3rd for sure. He's at least shown he has the goods to have a big NFL game. No rookie has done that.
But it's also possible that most of the guys who value him at a late 1st already own him. Funny how that works.
But it's also possible that most of the guys who value him at a late 1st already own him.
Funny how that works.I mean, this is the same coaching staff that played heyward-bey over ty hilton for a large portion of the season. who knows wtf they think?
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
I don't get the late 3rd/4th talk in terms of rookie value. He as a late 2nd last year and he's in a much better situation now and has shown something on the field.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
It was my understanding just as I've read in here that his downward trend on playing time had more to do with 2 main factors... A lot more hurry up offense and just a further emphasis on knowing without question that the WR would be where he needed to be... Easier to trust Whalen and Brazil in that situation late as they had been in that offense longer...
Another thought just hit me but isn't it also possible that in the playoffs some adjustments to play calls lingo and such could have been made and maybe they again trusted someone who had been around longer to be able to deal quickly with those changes?
Example from Denver... Omaha can mean many different things so somebody newer to the play book may not be as quick to play instinctively and may think too much and become more of a liability than someone with more time in the system and a better feel for what is being asked of them...
Another thought just hit me but isn't it also possible that in the playoffs some adjustments to play calls lingo and such could have been made and maybe they again trusted someone who had been around longer to be able to deal quickly with those changes?
Example from Denver... Omaha can mean many different things so somebody newer to the play book may not be as quick to play instinctively and may think too much and become more of a liability than someone with more time in the system and a better feel for what is being asked of them...
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Pretty much, I have him in one of my leagues, I also have to cut 6 players before our draft and I wasn't sure who I was going to cut. I am pretty sure he will be one of them now.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
FFPC, I cant really see rostering him unless you are doing a total rebuild and your team is really, really bad
identikit
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
of course he is cheaper now, with good reason.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
What are the odds Wayne and Nicks are both playing for Indy in 2015? About 5%, maybe. Even if they like Rogers, there is no way the team was going into 2014 with just Hilton (suited for slot), Wayne coming off injury and unproven Rogers as their sole WRs. Nicks is on a one year deal and he probably won't make it through the season as per usual. Agreed that he is cheaper and is worth a stash and possibly as a cheap buy for the long-term depending on price.
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In dynasty leagues this is a dilemma. In re draft he could end up being a great waiver pick up if Nicks gets hurt or Wayne is struggling.
Just been offered David wilson for him straight up. Its a WR heavy league (start 3 or 4 with 1 or 2 RB) s its not that clear cut a decision. But I think that's about his value.
Just been offered David wilson for him straight up. Its a WR heavy league (start 3 or 4 with 1 or 2 RB) s its not that clear cut a decision. But I think that's about his value.
Warhogs
Footballguy
In dynasty if you believe in Rogers' talent then you keep or acquire him but you will have to be extremely patient. The Colts have very little invested in him so there is little hurry to get him a lot of playing time. He will need to show well in camps and preseason and wait for an injury to get a chance to show what he can do. Just an end of the bench kind of prospect at this time.
