TOM BRADY'S DEMISE: Shockingly, New England has the worst QB in the playoffs
I didn't think that I would ever see the day when Tom Brady was viewed as a liability for the New England Patriots, but the 42-year-old is the worst quarterback in the playoffs.
I know the Twitterverse will scorch me for disrespecting the G.O.A.T. after all that he has accomplished during a spectacular 20-year run that includes six Super Bowl titles, four Super Bowl MVP awards and three NFL MVPs, but there's no way that anyone can take an honest look at his 2019 performance and not reach the same conclusion.
Brady not only enters this single-elimination tournament with the second-lowest passer rating among playoff quarterbacks -- 88.0, ahead of only Josh Allen's 85.3 -- but his play over the last half of the season puts him at the bottom of the entire quarterbacking barrel. Since Week 9, TB12's completion percentage (56.9), yards per attempt (5.9) and passer rating (80.8) all rank 28th or worse (among quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes in this period). During that span, Brady had a lower completion percentage than Allen, a lesser yards-per-attempt figure than Duck Hodges and a worse passer rating than Mitchell Trubisky.
Wow!
If that's not enough to make you queasy, just take a look at his numbers from the 2019 season after he torched the Patriots' first three opponents (the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets) with spectacular play from the pocket (SEE: 67.9 percent completions, 303.7 pass yards per game, 8.6 yards per pass attempt, 7:0 TD-to-INT and a 116.5 passer rating). Since Week 4, Brady's completion percentage (59.4), yards per attempt (6.2) and passer rating (82.0) all rank among the bottom six in the league, and his passing yards per game (242.0) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (17:8) certainly don't stand out as elite production.
If we took the name off the back of Brady's jersey, there's no way that you would fear the Patriots' QB1 in a matchup against any of the elite quarterbacks in the tournament. Brady would be the underdog in one-on-one matchups against Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, and you can at least make a very strong case for Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen (running skills give him the edge) in shootouts against TB12.
I'm not being a hater. If you make the assessment strictly on how each quarterback performed on the field this season, you can't make Brady the favorite in any of those matches. Despite his playoff greatness and legendary status, he hasn't outplayed the competition, and the numbers speak for themselves. While you can make the case that Brady hasn't been helped out by a supporting cast that's struggled with the dropsies -- New England's 34 drops rank as the second-most in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus -- the quarterback hasn't performed up to the TB12 standard and it has seriously limited the Patriots' offense.
Brady used to carve up defenses attempting to rattle him with blitzes, but now he wilts under the pressure. After posting a 52.1 percent completion rate under pressure from 2016 to '18, per Next Gen Stats, he's only completed 37.4 percent of those passes in 2019 -- the third-lowest mark in the league this season. Brady has also struggled to throw the ball to the outside. He has the lowest passer rating (67.4) among 32 qualified quarterbacks on throws to wide targets, along with a 53 percent completion rate and a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio on these tosses. Compare those numbers to Brady's production in the past three seasons:
2018: 63.4 comp%, 11:2 TD-to-INT, 101.4 passer rating.
2017: 61.1 comp%, 10:5 TD-to-INT, 96.2 passer rating.
2016: 60.8 comp%, 9:1 TD-to-INT, 101.6 passer rating.
Studying the All-22 Coaches Film, I observe more accuracy and ball-placement issues from the veteran QB than I've ever seen before. Brady repeatedly misses open receivers down the seams or along the boundary on vertical throws, and his inconsistencies have prompted defensive coordinators to come after the 14-time Pro Bowler with reckless abandon.
"He's not the same player," a former NFL defensive coordinator who routinely faced Brady told me. "He's not as accurate and he's missing more throws than ever. Plus, he's more affected by pressure because he doesn't want to get it. The pieces around him aren't as good, either, but he definitely is not the player that made you pause before dialing up a pressure."
The Patriots have been able to win Super Bowls in a variety of ways during a remarkable two-decade run, but hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this February will require them to play around their quarterback. Despite his unparalleled resume, Brady will have to hope the squad can carry him to the title as the team's weakest link.
