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Who will be/should be ROY this year? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
gianmarco
Footballguy
Because we're at the halfway point. Makes for some discussion. At the end of the year, should be much clearer.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Ryan looks like no other rookie QB for the last what, 15 years? Chris Johnson has been great, but we've seen other rookies do what he's doing. It's Ryan's to lose.
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
Gotta hand it to Matt Ryan. He overcame his garbage collegiate football program pedigree to play pretty well in his first year of the NFL
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I went with Royal as who should get it and Ryan will get it. How often do WR's perform that well as a rookie?
BusMan
Footballguy
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I don't think that's the fair standard to use.IMO, it's like who is the MVP among the rookies. I don't care what Tim Couch or Ricky Williams did when I'm deciding rookie of the year in 2008.
EBF
Footballguy
Royal is the better player right now, but Ryan will get it because his success is more visible.
Loan Sharks
Not a Wolf
What no Torain? There is like a 40 page thread around here talking about his greatness.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Except it isn't rookie MVP. They don't need to be the MVP of the league to win this. Whether or not Atlanta makes playoffs should not be very relevant at all.
Gargoylez
Footballguy
Tell that to Ladanian Tomlinson when he lost ROY to... Anthony Thomas. I mean one of the biggest blunders I ever saw. Because Chicago was like 13-3 and San Diego was like 5-11. Well I mean THomas ended up being... a Journeyman? Bust?Johnson will not get it and Forte DEFINATELY will not get it. But hey everyone has there own opinions, even if they are hysterical.RYAN, landslide (Barring a catastrophe)
PatrickT
Footballguy
I brought this up in another thread, and it didn't generate any discussion at all. So I'll try again. Could we be witnessing the best rookie season ever? I went back and looked to '83, Marino's rookie year, which everyone seems to bring up. And Ryan has him beat in several categories thru last week.
I haven't updated thru this week, but, if he has a rookie season better than Marino, how is he NOT ROY? And, just to be fair, I'm no historian, so if I'm really off target, please let me know. These numbers are pulled from nfl.com. Didn't realize that Marino missed as many games in his rookie year as he did, so this is an 8 game vs 8 game comparison.
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Comp Att Pct Yds Avg TD Int Rate W/LMarino124 220 457.8 1558 57.2 15 5 91.8 4-4Ryan133 227 490.9 1661 65.6 9 5 85.43 5-3Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I've spent a bunch of time ranking QB seasons. Here's how I rank the top 15 rookie seasons by a QB in NFL history:PatrickT said:
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Dan Marino 22 1983 mia 674Greg Cook 23 1969 cin 581Charlie Conerly 27 1948 nyg 513Marc Bulger 25 2002 ram 476Sid Luckman 23 1939 chi 392Johnny Unitas 23 1956 clt 392Ben Roethlisberger 22 2004 pit 392Norm Van Brocklin 23 1949 ram 384Jim Kelly 26 1986 buf 367Billy Wade 24 1954 ram 343Pat Haden 23 1976 ram 323Johnny Lujack 23 1948 chi 320Joe Namath 22 1965 nyj 319Butch Songin 36 1960 nwe 312Jacky Lee 21 1960 oti 298
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PatrickT
Footballguy
Really glad to get some confirmation that I'm not just being a homer. Thanks. Will look forward to continuing this track as the season progresses.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Bulger wasn't a rookie in 2002. He was drafted by the Saints in 2000, cut, signed by the Rams in 2001, but didn't get into a game until 2002.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Doesn't that make him a rookie?I know there's some ambiguity in what exactly rookie means (i.e., did Willis McGahee miss his rookie season or no?) but I would consider someone's rookie year the first time they were on an active squad in the regular season.
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Tau837
Footballguy
What exactly makes Royal the better player right now? He's having a great season for sure, but so is Ryan. Define what you mean when you say Royal is better.IMO QB is a much tougher position, so edge to Ryan there. And Ryan has led the Falcons to a 6-3 record so far, coming off a 4-12 record last season. I know he isn't solely responsible, but he is a big part of it, and it's impressive.I think Royal has been great, but I also think he has benefitted from (a) playing for a team that throws a lot of passes (#3 in the league in attempts) and (b) having Marshall and Sheffler to draw plenty of defensive attention, leaving Royal in single coverage consistently.I'd definitely rank Johnson ahead of Royal at this point, and it's a toss up as to whether or not he or Slaton has been better. But they are all behind Ryan.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Ryan's play has been impressive enough by itself for him to win in a landslide, but when you factor in the entire Michael Vick mess and where this team came from to where they are right now, I don't see how it could be anyone but Ryan.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
Some years I would love to go this way but Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are doing something amazing.
well the consensus in a landslide is that should and WILL win it. The interesting part is that there are a significant number of people who think he WILL win it but doesnt deserve it.
Can this be explained by the lack of homer Atlanta votes or some other reason? Since the vast majority feel he should and will win it, the discussion would be more intersting to heAr from those people who voted he WILL win but either Johnson or Forte deserve it. For the record, I think he both deserves it and will win it barring a late season colapse.
Can this be explained by the lack of homer Atlanta votes or some other reason? Since the vast majority feel he should and will win it, the discussion would be more intersting to heAr from those people who voted he WILL win but either Johnson or Forte deserve it. For the record, I think he both deserves it and will win it barring a late season colapse.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Ryan is having major success for a previously awful team at the toughest position, one that rarely has rookies play well. It has to be him.
Because QB is the highest-profile position, when a rookie QB is in the conversation for ROY, his position helps. So perhaps that's why some think Ryan doesn't deserve it. Others are probably voting based on fantasy value, which gives the nod to Chris Johnson. But neither of those arguments are legitimate this year. I can only think of two rookie QBs who had anywhere near this level of success in my lifetime -- Marino and Roethlisberger.
Because QB is the highest-profile position, when a rookie QB is in the conversation for ROY, his position helps. So perhaps that's why some think Ryan doesn't deserve it. Others are probably voting based on fantasy value, which gives the nod to Chris Johnson. But neither of those arguments are legitimate this year. I can only think of two rookie QBs who had anywhere near this level of success in my lifetime -- Marino and Roethlisberger.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
That's fair it that is the criteria you want to use. However, that totally invalidates your list when you leave off Kurt Warner's 1999 season and Tonoy Romo's 2006 season. Those were the first seasons Warner and Romo hit the field, so were they not "rookies"?
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Warner was active in 1998 and Romo was active in '04 and '05.
identikit
Footballguy
Very
Tau837
Footballguy
But Marino joined a team that was in the Super Bowl the year before his rookie season, and he only started 9 games as a rookie, so Ryan is having a more impressive season.Roethlisberger joined a team that, while it was 6-10 the previous season (2003), won its division and at least one playoff game in each of the two seasons before that (2001 and 2002)... and Roethlisberger attempted only 295 passes on the season (14 games); Ryan has already attempted 250 (9 games). Roethlisberger had a much more favorable situation than Ryan.ETA: I realize you said Ryan deserves the award. Just pointing out that his season is arguably more impressive than either of the other two.
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EBF
Footballguy
Matt Ryan is ranked 11th in the NFL in QB rating, 13th in passing yards, and 11th in TD passes. He's having a great season...for a rookie QB. But he's not having a great season overall unless you consider being in the top third of the league's starters great. Eddie Royal is 10th in the NFL in receiving yards, 6th in receptions, and 9th in receiving yards per game. Out of 64 starting WRs in the NFL, he ranks roughly in the top 10-15% in these major statistical categories. His production is more exceptional than Ryan's IMO. That said, I fully expect Ryan to win in a landslide. Royal is too much of an unknown and I don't think Chris Johnson and Matt Forte have done enough to mount a serious challenge for the hardware. DeSean Jackson will probably be in the top 5 somewhere, but he won't win.
switz
Footballguy
I have both... I've started Ryan at QB more than CJ at RB.
switz
Footballguy
That's exactly what I was going to say... A rookie season is the first year a players makes an NFL team's "active" roster... there are guys that come in and go to a practice squad for a couple years, but they are called practice squad players. The first year they are on an NFL's active squad they are called rookies.
thatguy
Footballguy
Voted Ryan and think if he keeps it up he'll be a lock. But I think Royal right now should be a lock for second - unfortunately I don't think the votes, if tallied today, would agree with that. I'm probably biased, but it seems to me what Royal is doing is far more special than what CJ3 is doing.
gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
But isn't it more difficult to succeed as a young QB than a RB or WR? I think you can make an argument that while every year there are rookie RBs who succeed (and usually a WR or 2), it's rare that a QB comes in and has immediate success, especially in turning around what most considered one of the worst franchises in the league. Obviously Matt Ryan isn't the only reason Atlanta has been able to turn things around, but he has not played like a rookie, and since the learning curve for QBs in general seems to be longer, I think he deserves a lot of credit.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
There was a thread posted somewhere around week 10 a couple of years ago with a ridiculous betting line on Marques Colston for ROY. He looked like a mortal lock at the time, and I recall a bunch of people jumping on. That thread could be a useful one to review right now.
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thatguy
Footballguy
I think it's pretty rare for a WR to make the type of impact we're seeing from Eddie Royal right now. Sure, you have your Bowe's and your Calvin's, who play pretty well but don't light the world on fire - but Royal's 16 game pace as of now is 104 receptions, 1250 yards, 8 TD's. The last rookie WR to post those types of numbers was Boldin in '03 (and I suppose some might argue that Clayton's '04 numbers were on par as well, which obviously hurts Royal's cause). What I think is so impressive about Royal is that he was hardly involved in his college offense - it amazes me how polished a WR he already is given his seeming lacking of experience at a high level. Of course, I don't think that should factor into the votes.Nonetheless, I still think Ryan should win hands down, but I hope that doesn't take away from how special Royal's season is, too.
sinatravolta
Footballguy
I am one who voted that Johnson should win and Ryan will win. I don't think it's a huge margin that Johnson should win by - but I do think Ryan will win because he's a QB and QBs almost always win awards when it's even remotely close. For example - last year's Super Bowl MVP - probably should have been Justin Tuck or somebody on the Giants D - but it just kind of by default is given to the QB (not trying to diss Eli, but holding the Pats to 14 points was what won that Super Bowl). Or - when the Rams won the MVP from '99 - '01 and Warner won it twice and Faulk once when I definitely think Faulk was more valuable overall.
I think people are overstating the "being a great QB as a rookie is so rare" argument. That makes it more impressive an accomplishment - but "Rookie of the year" should I think basically be - which rookie played best. I think the team doing well should have an impact too - and that's the main reason I'd pick Chris Johnson over Matt Forte. The Titans are 9-0 in large part thanks to their D, but if you had to pick one person on the offense - it'd be Chris Johnson. For the Falcons - I think they're pretty balanced and Michael Turner certainly deserves a lot of credit on offense too - as I think most teams have been daring Ryan to beat them (and he's been doing it). You could also say that Orton has been helping Forte a fair amount for the Bears. In terms of stats, Chris Johnson is on pace for about 1,600 total yards and 11 TDs which is I think a more impressive year than having a 89.9 QB rating - although obviously that's great for a rookie.
Anyway - I think it's a pretty impressive rookie crop and Slaton, Royal, Jackson have certainly had impressive years too.
I think people are overstating the "being a great QB as a rookie is so rare" argument. That makes it more impressive an accomplishment - but "Rookie of the year" should I think basically be - which rookie played best. I think the team doing well should have an impact too - and that's the main reason I'd pick Chris Johnson over Matt Forte. The Titans are 9-0 in large part thanks to their D, but if you had to pick one person on the offense - it'd be Chris Johnson. For the Falcons - I think they're pretty balanced and Michael Turner certainly deserves a lot of credit on offense too - as I think most teams have been daring Ryan to beat them (and he's been doing it). You could also say that Orton has been helping Forte a fair amount for the Bears. In terms of stats, Chris Johnson is on pace for about 1,600 total yards and 11 TDs which is I think a more impressive year than having a 89.9 QB rating - although obviously that's great for a rookie.
Anyway - I think it's a pretty impressive rookie crop and Slaton, Royal, Jackson have certainly had impressive years too.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
There are a lot more rookie WRs than fail every year than rookie QBs, too.
Pack43
Footballguy
Actually that would be Forte. He's the #1 overall RB in PPR leagues and leads Johnson in any format. Oh and I own CJ3 in 4 leagues and Forte in none. I voted Ryan.
Tau837
Footballguy
Royal is playing great, but a few small points.1. Guys like Boldin, Bowe, and Clayton were all playing WR1 for their teams as rookies. Royal is playing WR2, so he has the advantage of facing weaker coverage than those guys. I suppose you could argue Bowe due to Gonzalez, but Royal has Sheffler in addition to Marshall, so the point holds.2. Denver is passing more often than the teams of most comparables. Bowe and Clayton averaged 7.3 targets per game as rookies; Royal is averaging 9 targets per game. (Boldin averaged 10.3, though.) To his credit, Royal is certainly excelling with the opportunities he is given, but it is also true that he is getting more opportunities than any other rookie WR I'm aware of (ever) besides Boldin.3. Royal missed a game, so it's probably more useful to project his numbers to 15 games than 16 games. His 15 game pace is 97.5/1170/7.5. He's definitely on pace for a tremendous season.thatguy said:
Tau837
Footballguy
Chris Johnson is on pace for 1603 total yards and 11 TDs as the offensive workhorse of what is arguably the best team in the league. IMO that is superior to what Royal is doing, especially when you consider he's on pace for 11 TDs despite playing with the biggest TD vulture in the league.thatguy said:
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