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Why CeeDee Lamb Is Ranked So High... (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

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We're way higher at @Footballguys on CeeDee Lamb for this week than most of our competitors. (At least for now ;) ) He's our WR1 where most have him WR10-15. Some people asked why. My guy @Maurile Tremblay explains.

And yes, this maybe should be in the Lamb thread but really, it's a bigger picture thing on how we do projections.

www.footballguys.com

Why Is CeeDee Lamb Ranked So High?

Our Maurile Tremblay explains why Lamb is still elite without Dak Prescott on the field.
www.footballguys.com www.footballguys.com
 
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And for sure, there will be lots of people who disagree. That's fantasy football. This was just a chance to elaborate a bit on how we got to our answer.
 
If Washington does not double team Lamb, I would be shocked. Dan Quinn is not likely to let Lamb go wild. Doubt if Lamb gets anything deep or in the redzone. Maybe PPR if they scheme for him. Garbage time may not be in the cards as Lamb is dinged up and they could sit him. Hard pass on Lamb as a WR1, much less #1.
 
It does seem like an unnecessary risk to rank him that high with a backup QB, additional coverage attention, a poor running game to keep the defense honest, and limited scoring opportunities due inefficiency on offense.
 
King of the Jungle said:
It does seem like an unnecessary risk ...
Click to expand...

That's a fair point. It's a constant battle for us in the "do we project what we really think or do we play it safe and not go out on a limb?"

I never get emails telling me they're canceling their subscription because we went with the consensus.

We feel we owe it to our customers to let them know what we really think.

Also, to be fair, our projections are a group effort. Maurile projected him WR1 but some of our other staff is not as high on him. As they add their projections in, Lamb will likely come down some.

But big picture, we think the right thing is to project what we really think. Even though it's not the safe thing.
 
And I thought I was high on Lamb in the 6-10 range. Targets will be there, game script will be there (as long as it doesn't hit blowout pull then starters territory) but I'm not sure the overall offensive upside is there to put him #1 overall.

As someone with 2 Lamb shares, I hope you guys are right.
 
I doubt Lamb sees any more coverage than he already sees.

Are defenses now saying "Y'know with a less accurate, weaker armed QB we better add a third guy to go along with safety help over the top"?
 
Joe Bryant said:
King of the Jungle said:
It does seem like an unnecessary risk ...
Click to expand...

That's a fair point. It's a constant battle for us in the "do we project what we really think or do we play it safe and not go out on a limb?"

I never get emails telling me they're canceling their subscription because we went with the consensus.

We feel we owe it to our customers to let them know what we really think.

Also, to be fair, our projections are a group effort. Maurile projected him WR1 but some of our other staff is not as high on him. As they add their projections in, Lamb will likely come down some.

But big picture, we think the right thing is to project what we really think. Even though it's not the safe thing.
Click to expand...
I like the non-consensus view and honestly am not criticizing. Simply going through my process on that particular case, however understand everyone has their own view and process.
 
I like that you created a separate thread for this to talk to why certain ratings are higher.
  • Dallas cannot run block and block in general.
  • Dallas defense cannot stop the run or pass. Washington should be able to do what they want against them.
  • The target count has to be high because the other WR's are not a threat because they really don't get open.
  • Schoonmaker may receive all of Ferguson's targets.
  • Washington shouldn't need to force excessive coverage to stop Lamb and this offense.
  • 10-12 Targets are on the board this week
 
Joe, really appreciate you doing these threads when there may be a facially odd ranking as compared to other sites. Definitely helps as a subscriber knowing why I may see something that could raise an eyebrow for me.
 
Planting a flag for any player to finish #1 overall at their position will generate push back no matter what but I appreciate you putting the logic out there.

I like MT's reasoning and would even take him a small step further. At the end he talks about a dip in CeeDee's production in 2022 during Rush's five starts but, even then CeeDee saw 10 targets/game for 6-76-0.4 on average. Not earth shattering but still safe, stable production.

I love the flag plant as #1 overall WR. I may not agree with it but all it takes is one good bounce to go from 6-76-0.4 to 6-126-1 or better. I think CeeDee is should be in all but the most stacked lineups this week and is certainly a better option than, say, Malik Nabers who is in a similar boat.
 
Looking at box scores, Washington not that good at taking out the #1 option. I have Lamb in one league and he will start. I think he starts easily in most leagues. This is more of a DFS type decison.

FIO Lamb is WR10 in yahoo PPR. Collins, St Brown, Nacua, A.J. Brown, McLaurin, Nabers, Kupp, Tyreek, Metcalf, LAMB, Jefferson, Flowers
 
CD maybe elite in terms of the number of targets he draws but the DOT (Rush gets rid of the ball quickly) and quality of those targets leaves a lot to be desired.

Cowboys offense not scoring, defense is being shredded and not setting up short fields for the offense. Washington defense has been decent and particularly solid against poor offenses.

13 targets for 7 receptions and 67 yards and .3 TD isn’t a # 1 WR. More value in a full PPR. Also CD has been running at least one reverse a game which could add to his total.

Anything is possible in a rivalry game but Lamb as # 1WR overall seems more improbable than probable.
 
Lamb vs. WAS over his career. Fantasy ranking in that week.

2023: 24 & 2
2022: 8 & 15
2021: 30 & 45
2020: 101 & 57

He had a big game to close out the season against WAS last year, but the rest of the time he wasn't that close to being the #1 receiver those weeks.

Lamb's weekly rankings this year have been 23, 15, 43, 4, 42, 19, 1, 26, 40, and 14. That's basically 2 very strong weeks and a bunch of disappointing ones. WAS ranks 16th in fantasy points allowed to WR. Factor in that there's no Prescott, and I don't really think Lamb would be a great candidate to rank WR1 this week. He may see a lot of targets, but I doubt WAS will give him a lot of room to operate.
 
Reportedly limited with foot & back injuries.

The back seems ok - he played through it Sunday. The foot is a new one. Slightly concerning, though the limited practice is a little encouraging.
 
Zow said:
Joe, really appreciate you doing these threads when there may be a facially odd ranking as compared to other sites. Definitely helps as a subscriber knowing why I may see something that could raise an eyebrow for me.
Click to expand...

Thank you. We probably should do more of these.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Lamb vs. WAS over his career. Fantasy ranking in that week.

2023: 24 & 2
2022: 8 & 15
2021: 30 & 45
2020: 101 & 57

He had a big game to close out the season against WAS last year, but the rest of the time he wasn't that close to being the #1 receiver those weeks.

Lamb's weekly rankings this year have been 23, 15, 43, 4, 42, 19, 1, 26, 40, and 14. That's basically 2 very strong weeks and a bunch of disappointing ones. WAS ranks 16th in fantasy points allowed to WR. Factor in that there's no Prescott, and I don't really think Lamb would be a great candidate to rank WR1 this week. He may see a lot of targets, but I doubt WAS will give him a lot of room to operate.
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Different players, different coaches, different teams.
 
Joe Bryant said:
King of the Jungle said:
It does seem like an unnecessary risk ...
Click to expand...

That's a fair point. It's a constant battle for us in the "do we project what we really think or do we play it safe and not go out on a limb?"

I never get emails telling me they're canceling their subscription because we went with the consensus.

We feel we owe it to our customers to let them know what we really think.

Also, to be fair, our projections are a group effort. Maurile projected him WR1 but some of our other staff is not as high on him. As they add their projections in, Lamb will likely come down some.

But big picture, we think the right thing is to project what we really think. Even though it's not the safe thing.
Click to expand...
Players like Lamb (and Nabors this week) are very hard to project. It’s the debate of pedigree vs situation.
 
He hasn't been that wonderful this year and I absolutely love predicting a breakout here. Nice n bold.
 
I thought it was cuz he owned a Bryant Boat ;)

Appreciate the deep dive into the reasons and it's reassuring in that there is a divergence from what might be the general consensus. Sometimes rankings across sites seems like everyone is just sorta copying off each other's papers or at the least placing limits on the ranges they allow a player to fall into.

Good stuff Joe 🫡

-QG
 
W1 to WR10-15 is not that big of a gap. Pretty much all WR1 status and on par with literally the rest of the industry. Not sure why you feel the need to try and justify something so close. It's not like you're saying someone like Alec Pierce or AD will be WR1 this week, now THAT would be thread-worthy...
 
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Just as an aside, the top weekly WR scorers usually end up being very TD dependent. This year, most weeks the #1 WR scored multiple TDs. IIRC, the only WR to rank in the Top 5 in any week in PPR leagues that did not score at least 1 TD was Ridley when he had a 10-catch week.
 
Jacob's Ladder said:
W1 to WR10-15 is not that big of a gap. Pretty much all WR1 status and on par with literally the rest of the industry. Not sure why you feel the need to try and justify something so close. It's not like you're saying someone like Alec Pierce or AD will be WR1 this week, now THAT would be thread-worthy...
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Thanks. It was enough of a gap for lots of people that I was getting a good bit of feedback asking why we had him WR1 and much of the industry had him WR10-15. Thought folks here might be interested in our reasoning. And for sure, rankings will move through the week.
 
He's starting at 1, he's starting at 10, he's starting at 15. 🤷‍♂️

Ratings are all a bunch of groupthink and arguing over rankings 1-15 is absurd.

Put your neck on the line, let's see some truly unique calls.
 
Talent, therefore upside, is undeniable.....and shouldn't be overlooked. Hard to imagine a better flex, even with Rush starting. Afterall, although still maddingly inaccurate sometimes, he showed improvement getting Lamb the rock last week. Not sitting my 1st rounder, if healthy.
 
Stat Correction said:
Talent, therefore upside, is undeniable.....and shouldn't be overlooked. Hard to imagine a better flex, even with Rush starting. Afterall, although still maddingly inaccurate sometimes, he showed improvement getting Lamb the rock last week. Not sitting my 1st rounder, if healthy.
Click to expand...
If you drafted today with what we know about the Dallas offense, would Lamb be a 1st rounder? He wouldn’t be lower than a 2nd, but I would be happy to see my opponent start him against me.
 
FairWarning said:
Stat Correction said:
Talent, therefore upside, is undeniable.....and shouldn't be overlooked. Hard to imagine a better flex, even with Rush starting. Afterall, although still maddingly inaccurate sometimes, he showed improvement getting Lamb the rock last week. Not sitting my 1st rounder, if healthy.
Click to expand...
If you drafted today with what we know about the Dallas offense, would Lamb be a 1st rounder? He wouldn’t be lower than a 2nd, but I would be happy to see my opponent start him against me.
Click to expand...
Lamb is still a threat- the offense is featured around him and he will receive crazy volume pending health. Perhaps the 35 point games are gone but Lamb will put up points and I’m never too happy to see him on any roster against me.
 
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