Why did I do this? (1 Viewer)

[TeamSnooki]

When I first started out, I tried to play like my idols.

I learned to play aggressively. To intimidate and to calculate every move.

Then I learned - to play like me.

 

[SSOG]

I know this is way off topic and has been discussed before, but I'm always amazed at how many fantasy football players are also attracted to poker in an enthusiastic (if not obsessive) way. Maybe it's the luck wrapped in moments of skill and balance of control and lack of control...or just another way to make some money off your buddies. But they do seem related. You guys talk about poker hands as easily as you do backup running backs.

as SSOG said ... there are a lot of similarities between the games from an analytical standpoint. Kind of funny, I didn't expect to hear anyone talking about expected value around these parts.

I actually wrote an article about how a big mistake a lot of fantasy owners make is making decisions based on expectations and not based on expected value. I don't have a poker background (I like to say that everything I need to know about fantasy football I learned in High School Statistics), but I've gotten a lot of feedback from poker players who automatically assume I'm one of them, because nobody but poker players and statisticians ever talk about EV.

 

[sspunisher]

#### happens in fantasy. I had one of the most amazing drafts of all time last year. It was a 10 man league, deep roster spots, about 25-30 or so.

Drafted Mendenhall at 7-10 or so I forget where.

Drafted Jamal Charles at 20 or so.

Drafted Sidney Rice at 25 or so

Drafted Jerome Harrisson at 28 or so.

None of them were on my team after week 3 or 4, I dropped ALL of them for scrubs like Josh Morgan or Nate Burleson (who did alright for me I guess). Go look at their stats, they all started slow and I gave up on them too early. And one by one they all made me feel sorry that I ever dropped them. I would have dominated last year if I was more patient. It was a keeper league, and I had CJ and Rodgers on my team from the year before.

Luckily I picked up Miles Austin and started him when he had that huge game against KC. I was like ehhhhhh why not, needed a starter since our starting lineups were so deep, had no better options, Roy Williams got hurt the week before at Denver so Austin was starting, and Miles was returning kickoffs and we get kick return yards. Well, he didn't return kicks that game, but he got me 200+ yards receiving and ended up being the starter the rest of the year. I'm sure I was one of VERY few people that started him for that KC game. Insane, huh? Definitely made dropping the above mentioned guys hurt a bitttttttttttttttttttt less.

Point is, fantasy is all about luck, good and bad. I had Brandon Jackson on my team this year. Dropped him by the 3rd preseason game. Was hating life when I heard about Grants injury. And now I could care less cuz Jackson is stinking it up. Don't dwell on #### you can't control, just keep being active on that waiver wire. Try to scout the hot pickups before they happen. Identify all backup RBs who are one torn ACL away from being hot waiver wire material (Bernard Scott, Rashard Jennings, etc etc). Check out young stud WRs who are just some heavy targets away from having a huge year (Jacobey Jones, Deon Butler, James Jones).

 

[rowmacks]

I drafted Arian Foster last year in dynasty, held him for just about the whole season but finally dropped him for a scrub. Also picked up Floyd/Naanee late last year, same thing. Dropped DeAngelo Williams the morning of his breakout game in his miracle season (for Sage Rosenfels, redraft, cost me the championship)... oh yeah, drafted Derrick Ward over Ray Rice last year in dynasty. There are a few others but those are some of the ones that stick out and continue to haunt me.

 

[bweiser]

I had a great draft a couple of years ago - Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Ray Rice. Roster limitations and lack of PT early forced him to cut Rice and Slaton in the first four weeks or so. Thankfully, I held on to Johnson.

 

[gehazi]

Week 2 waiver wire, I was stuck between Vick and Brandon Jackson with Eli and Carson at QB, I thought Jackson would be a solid back up for provide depth and figured that Vick would only start one game like Andy Reid "said" With Desean at WR the Vick/Desean Combo would be soooo dirty in fantasy, so I asked a guy who he'd pick up because I was practically split 50/50, anybody else want to bring me down? Im done venting now.

What other moves have you made?

Just picking up Snelling and Tolbert when Turner and Mathews went down. Otherwise I'm pretty well set.

What's the rest of your roster look like? Is it PPR?

Just standard, no PPR.QB-Eli and Carson, I try to play the matchups each week, so this is why i feel stupid for not picking up Vick.RB-Turner and Mathews, with Best, Jackson, Snelling, and Tolbert on the benchWR, Floyd, Santana, Desean are the starters with Steve Smith (NYG), Jacoby Jones, Steve Breaston on the benchTE-Keller, and CelekK, CrosbySo seeing that Jackson probably will never get into my lineup and how Vick has been studly so far not compared to just the NFL but Carson and Eli particularly. Vick would probably have gotten me 1 more win and being 2-1 rather than 1-2.Nice to see I'm not the only one that passed up on him

The problem with kicking yourself for not picking up Vick or patting yourself on the back if you did, is two pronged: 1. Even after Vick had looked good for two straight weeks even Andy Reid was not expecting Vick to start again. How often does a coach announce a guy is just the backup and then change his mind the next day and make him the starter. And after only two weeks?! I'm sorry, but no one picked up Vick thinking "Here's my new starter" let alone, "Here's my new super-stud starter." The reason being 2. Vick has NEVER been this good. Sure, he had some decent fantasy seasons. But he has never even come close to being this productive of a passer. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Vick has done what most thought was impossible in morphing into a very accurate, pass first QB. So going after a young RB, that has not had a chance to be a starter except a hand full of games his rookie year, simply makes more sense. Especially when you take into account that GB is a MUCH better team now than the one BJax first came to. And I'm sorry, but Ryan Grant is an average RB. So thinking that BJax may have developed enough to be of a similar talent was not at all far fetched. Sure, he's proven that he pretty much sucks now. But there was no way to know that initially. He simply had to small of a body of work. Honestly, how many people really expected Grant to become the starter a couple years back? Let alone a productive fantasy player.

 

[Zoomanji]

I don't know why you would just call in middle position with A8

It wasn't good enough to raise with an under-the-gun limper. Especially if he was trapping. Him not raising was suspicious.

even more reason to just throw it away pre-flop. No need to tangle when you're behind close to the bubble

I know this is way off topic and has been discussed before, but I'm always amazed at how many fantasy football players are also attracted to poker in an enthusiastic (if not obsessive) way. Maybe it's the luck wrapped in moments of skill and balance of control and lack of control...or just another way to make some money off your buddies. But they do seem related. You guys talk about poker hands as easily as you do backup running backs.

Poker players make some of the best fantasy football owners. They know how bad it is to be results oriented, they understand concepts like EV, and they're most at peace with the fact that, at the end of the day, it's all a crapshoot and all you can do is make enough right calls to give yourself a better-than-average chance of winning it all.

Not like that FBG who tried to use his results to justify his draft day reach of T. Gonzales-EV

 

[John 14:6]

In my TD only keep 6 league I ended up trading Mendehall and Boldin for Wayne and a 1st round pick. I kept

Rodgers

Gore

Charles

Wayne

Harvin

Finley

I also traded McCoy for a 2nd round pick.

Unfortunately with my two 1st round picks I took Dwane Bowe and Jerome Harrison. Fortunately with my two 2nd round picks I took Malcolm Floyd and Darren McFadden. (I was targeting McFadden thinking he could be a high NFL pick that turned it around, like Mendenhall did last year.) I also later took Peyton Hillis to back up Harrison.

Last week I played the team that I traded Mendenhall and Boldin to. He throttled me 47-22 as those two players combined for 4 TDs

 

[Wolfpacker]

I was in love with Cheryl Jones in 6th grade but thought she was out of my league. After we moved away I found out she liked me too.

I married her, you know. Her dad's filthy rich, too. What a frisky little tiger she is! Glad you kept quiet back in 6th grade.

You're welcome.....enjoy

Nah, you did the right thing. She's cheating on her husband.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I was in love with Cheryl Jones in 6th grade but thought she was out of my league. After we moved away I found out she liked me too.

I married her, you know. Her dad's filthy rich, too. What a frisky little tiger she is! Glad you kept quiet back in 6th grade.

You're welcome.....enjoy

Nah, you did the right thing. She's cheating on her husband.

You're right. She is cheating on her husband-- with her first husband. I knew when to get out. I'm still collecting alimony, too.

 

[Romofan]

I like toast....

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I know this is way off topic and has been discussed before, but I'm always amazed at how many fantasy football players are also attracted to poker in an enthusiastic (if not obsessive) way. Maybe it's the luck wrapped in moments of skill and balance of control and lack of control...or just another way to make some money off your buddies. But they do seem related. You guys talk about poker hands as easily as you do backup running backs.

Poker players make some of the best fantasy football owners. They know how bad it is to be results oriented, they understand concepts like EV, and they're most at peace with the fact that, at the end of the day, it's all a crapshoot and all you can do is make enough right calls to give yourself a better-than-average chance of winning it all.

From what I've read on this board I think there are a lot of compulsive gamblers that play FF.

 

[cubbie5150]

I know this is way off topic and has been discussed before, but I'm always amazed at how many fantasy football players are also attracted to poker in an enthusiastic (if not obsessive) way. Maybe it's the luck wrapped in moments of skill and balance of control and lack of control...or just another way to make some money off your buddies. But they do seem related. You guys talk about poker hands as easily as you do backup running backs.

Poker players make some of the best fantasy football owners. They know how bad it is to be results oriented, they understand concepts like EV, and they're most at peace with the fact that, at the end of the day, it's all a crapshoot and all you can do is make enough right calls to give yourself a better-than-average chance of winning it all.

From what I've read on this board I think there are a lot of compulsive gamblers that play FF.

I don't know about "compulsive", but 3/4 of the owners in the leagues I've been in over the years wouldn't even bother w/ FF were it not for at least moderate stakes (at least $3,000 to the league champ).

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I know this is way off topic and has been discussed before, but I'm always amazed at how many fantasy football players are also attracted to poker in an enthusiastic (if not obsessive) way. Maybe it's the luck wrapped in moments of skill and balance of control and lack of control...or just another way to make some money off your buddies. But they do seem related. You guys talk about poker hands as easily as you do backup running backs.

Poker players make some of the best fantasy football owners. They know how bad it is to be results oriented, they understand concepts like EV, and they're most at peace with the fact that, at the end of the day, it's all a crapshoot and all you can do is make enough right calls to give yourself a better-than-average chance of winning it all.

From what I've read on this board I think there are a lot of compulsive gamblers that play FF.

I don't know about "compulsive", but 3/4 of the owners in the leagues I've been in over the years wouldn't even bother w/ FF were it not for at least moderate stakes (at least $3,000 to the league champ).

What I was referring to was outside of FF. I read more about casino trips and poker on this board than anywhere else. What you never hear is how much they lose I'm pretty sure there are a lot of compulsive gamblers that also like FF.

 

[TheArchitect]

Week 2 waiver wire, I was stuck between Vick and Brandon Jackson with Eli and Carson at QB, I thought Jackson would be a solid back up for provide depth and figured that Vick would only start one game like Andy Reid "said" With Desean at WR the Vick/Desean Combo would be soooo dirty in fantasy, so I asked a guy who he'd pick up because I was practically split 50/50, anybody else want to bring me down? Im done venting now.

What other moves have you made?

Just picking up Snelling and Tolbert when Turner and Mathews went down. Otherwise I'm pretty well set.

Is there anybody else in your league?

My hunch is yes ... otherwise he would have to be pretty sadistic to opt for Eli and Carson as his QBs

Is there anyone in his league paying attention, or did everyone just draft and go to sleep?

 

[TheArchitect]

The problem with kicking yourself for not picking up Vick or patting yourself on the back if you did, is two pronged: 1. Even after Vick had looked good for two straight weeks even Andy Reid was not expecting Vick to start again. How often does a coach announce a guy is just the backup and then change his mind the next day and make him the starter. And after only two weeks?! I'm sorry, but no one picked up Vick thinking "Here's my new starter" let alone, "Here's my new super-stud starter." The reason being 2. Vick has NEVER been this good. Sure, he had some decent fantasy seasons. But he has never even come close to being this productive of a passer. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Vick has done what most thought was impossible in morphing into a very accurate, pass first QB.

So going after a young RB, that has not had a chance to be a starter except a hand full of games his rookie year, simply makes more sense. Especially when you take into account that GB is a MUCH better team now than the one BJax first came to. And I'm sorry, but Ryan Grant is an average RB. So thinking that BJax may have developed enough to be of a similar talent was not at all far fetched. Sure, he's proven that he pretty much sucks now. But there was no way to know that initially. He simply had to small of a body of work. Honestly, how many people really expected Grant to become the starter a couple years back? Let alone a productive fantasy player.



Dare I mention the "L" word? That's what makes FF, and sports for that matter, so much fun (and frustrating)... no matter how much you think you know and how well thought out your decisions may be, you never know what's going to happen. Expand your league to 16 teams, recruit a bunch of people who actually pay attention, and add some IDPs... luck will play less of a factor.

I was willing to bid $26 ($125 budget) on Vick... but, considering all the factors mentioned above (and the fact that I own Romo), I decided to cut my bid to $13 at the last minute... Vick went for $15... to a new owner with a QBBC of Henne and Kolb... he just bid on Vick because he likes him and happened to own Kolb... that team has now become this year's team to beat. By the way, B-Jax went for $91.

Andy Reid has replaced Shanahan as my most reviled head coach! Booooo!!!

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

wow this took 48 posts to come out? slippin

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

The problem with kicking yourself for not picking up Vick or patting yourself on the back if you did, is two pronged: 1. Even after Vick had looked good for two straight weeks even Andy Reid was not expecting Vick to start again. How often does a coach announce a guy is just the backup and then change his mind the next day and make him the starter. And after only two weeks?! I'm sorry, but no one picked up Vick thinking "Here's my new starter" let alone, "Here's my new super-stud starter."

XGuy in my league traded Brees effective week 3 that sunday night prior to the MNF game for Jahvid Best because he had vick and 'even andy reid isn't dumb enough to bench this guy".The vick news came out tues IIRC

 

[Manster]

Week 2 waiver wire, I was stuck between Vick and Brandon Jackson with Eli and Carson at QB, I thought Jackson would be a solid back up for provide depth and figured that Vick would only start one game like Andy Reid "said" With Desean at WR the Vick/Desean Combo would be soooo dirty in fantasy, so I asked a guy who he'd pick up because I was practically split 50/50, anybody else want to bring me down? Im done venting now.

meh, i wouldnt worry about it. i could have have vick in a couple leagues and passed. of course i was better off at QB than you, but i digress.............i still think vick wont keep up this pace all year. we'll see.