Why waste your time thinking about players that will not help you? (1 Viewer)

[Pickle Rody]

Guys like MJD were chillin on your waivers?

Not for long....maybe two or three days. In week 6 or 7, I forget which. The guy who dropped him had Fragile Fred and Toefield.Colston was grabbed in week 4, after Berrian and Cotchery went to other teams via waivers. Those two gents were kicking themselves after leaving Colston for me and then watching me win the title.12 team league, 18 man rosters, no limits per position. Some guys aren't that bright in my league.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So people were wasting their time with Gore/Barlow talk last off-season?

I thought it was obvious who was the better back. Gore closed 2005 strong...then Barlow was traded, it became obvious and then you add in Norv Turner and his track history...it wasn't exactly a mystery that Gore might be worth more than a 4th-6th round pick or wherever he was drafted.And to the rest of the board, I'm in a pissy mood today, sorry to ruin everyone's fun.

What happened, somebody open a can of tuna next to you on your lunch break? YesP.S. This thread is ridiculous, you are basically saying if i cant get LT, i may as well drop out of the league.

And to the other point, I am not saying if you can't get LT drop out of the league...I am saying to concentrate on the players that have the best chance to either make a huge rebound or are in terrific situations. In fact, you just got me thinking what I really need to do...and that's simply talk about the positions in relation to year in and year out performance.

Example: The Denver WR2...in '06 it was 52/512/3

'05 42/770/1

'04 54/1084/7

'03 37/628/2

'02 69/903/2

So for the last 5 years it has averaged about 750 yds a season and 3 TD...almost unstartable but there are tons of people piling on the Brandon Marshall bandwagon even though Javon Walker is clearly the WR1 and they will have a struggling QB in only his 2nd season.

This is much better BS, I should have structured the thread much differently. I will clean this up tonight and the rest of the week and have a better box to stand on next go around. Thanks.

 

[Couch Potato]

I'll give you this, MoP. Always thinking, often out of the box, and I like that. Sometimes I agree, sometimes I disagree, but I always like that fact that you're bringing your own perspective to the table.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'll give you this, MoP. Always thinking, often out of the box, and I like that. Sometimes I agree, sometimes I disagree, but I always like that fact that you're bringing your own perspective to the table.

Look I understand this is like castor oil for most folks. And I should have preferenced the thread with it pertaining to redrafts more than dyansty. My issue with dynasty for the most part that I have seen are people that way overvalue youth, and don't have a win now mode...which is fine because it leaves the door wide open to come in and make a run quickly. But in redrafts, to me if you don't win it all, what's the point. In dyansty you can look ahead to next season or take some pride that you are building a winner for the future but in a redraft league it is over quickly. Did I screw up in some leagues last season? You bet I did...I actually took Ron Dayne in the 5th round of a redraft in late July last season...I really thought he would do well...I ended up actually using him in the playoffs but it wasn't what I had thought when I originally drafted him as a Denver RB...I make mistakes like everyone else.But I think for redrafts its very important to start laying the ground work for what you want to do. Many of you and me too spend a decent chunk of change in these redrafts...you gotta be prepared. And no one likes to talk about it but there are really just a handful of players that makes the most difference. Put it another way. You start out on fire, how much easier is it to maneuver and get guys you want for the 2nd half of the season...when you hold a lot of the bigger cards you can get almost anything you want in redrafts...dynasty is a lot different but in a redraft you can do it all day long. It's a lot easier to play from ahead than it is behind. RB you should be clocking in redrafts based on David Dodd's projections IMO:7. Addai11. Maroney13. Portis15. McGahee16. Edge17. T.HenryThe turn at the end of the 1st is looking like a potential sweet spot...I also liek the middle of the round too so you can stay ahead of any runs.

 

[komments]

Hi Mr Kellogg, long time reader and admirer, good points but I disagree that Jacobs is going to produce like a 2nd rounder.

Greg will do. Now let me explain why I think you are wrong. First, let me qualify by saying I am not a fan of big backs. They don't traditionally have more than one great season in the NFL. If that. Jerome Bettis being the lone exception.Last season Jacobs only carried the ball 96 times but he managed nine rushing TDs. That indicates he had a LOT of short yardage carries. A look at the splits from FOXSports.com will break his carries down better than anyone else.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/playerSplits?categoryId=300253

Here are his numbers on carries where two yards or less were required for a first down or a TD (short yardage carries):

1st down: 5 carries for 3 yards and 3 TDs. Not bad.

2nd down: 11 carries for 35 yards and 2 TDs. Again pretty good and you know these were not all goalline attempts.

3rd down: 18 carries for 64 yards and no TDs. Not as good here.

4th down: 3 carries for 2 yards and 2 TDs. Very good TD to carry percentage here.

All told on short yardage situations he was 37 carries for 106 yards and 7 TDs. His YPC in short yardage was 2.86.

Short yardage attempts made up 39% of his attempts.

On carries where you can't predict run or pass (first and 6+) he carried 30 for 170 yards. That is a 5.67 ypc average. That is BETTER than Tiki Barber did - he averaged 5.01 ypc in the same situation.

So it is clear that Jacobs' numbers were influenced by how he was used.

What needs to be clarified is how he will do with 320 carries instead of 96. And how he will perform in the passing game. I doubt he will come close to touching Tiki's numbers there. But then I suspect we will see a LOT of Ahmad Bradshaw on third and long situations. He IS an excellent receiver and at 198 pounds will be a great change of pace back. I don't expect much of anything from Rueben Droughns unless Jacobs is hurt.

I can easily see Jacobs putting up 320 carries and averaging 4.6 ypc. I also expect around 11 rushing TDs. Add in a modest 20 receptions for 200 yards and another score and you have a back with 1600-1700 yards and 12 TDs. That could vault him into the top 10 at his position.

Remember also that Jacobs did not bust a big run in 2006. Being used on first and second down is likely to change that. So the 4.6 ypc average COULD be a pessimistic estimate.

Now there ARE a lot of questions about Jacobs. He has never had the full time job. But neither did Barber until his fourth year in the league.

 

[-OZ-]

But I think for redrafts its very important to start laying the ground work for what you want to do. Many of you and me too spend a decent chunk of change in these redrafts...you gotta be prepared. And no one likes to talk about it but there are really just a handful of players that makes the most difference. Put it another way. You start out on fire, how much easier is it to maneuver and get guys you want for the 2nd half of the season...when you hold a lot of the bigger cards you can get almost anything you want in redrafts...dynasty is a lot different but in a redraft you can do it all day long. It's a lot easier to play from ahead than it is behind.

I like your thinking. My only comment here is that it's even easier in dynasty leagues to play from ahead than behind. Often, after the first few weeks, teams decide what they want to do. Some will see their players disapoint and sell off their "older" players for picks or prospects to those teams in the lead. Then those "older" players perform for a couple years while the picks tend to disapoint. The cycle begins anew the next year. Slight hijack, so I'll stop with that.

 

[komments]

The thing to look for in second/third tier running backs is the situation. So many teams are sharing carries nowadays. So a back like Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch (who I think is going to be very special), and Ahman Green are in very good situations. I also like LenDale White as a later round back because though Chris Henry has a ton of raw talent he has never shown the work ethic needed to succeed.

These are all guys you are going to be able to draft as your RB3 or RB4 and who might end up a weekly starter for you.

Remember - predicting things is very tricky. Take ANYONE's top 10 at any position right now and it is safe to bet 4-6 of them will be wrong by the end of the year.

And WRs are even worse. Every year about five of them who were top 10 the year before fall out in the following year.

Which is why it is NOT a waste of time discussing marginal players. Because the more opinions you can get, the better the decisions you can make. That is the ONLY reason for coming to boards and sites - getting a multitude of opinions from people you respect.

Well, comaderie is nice too (I probably mispelled that).

One mistake I see a LOT of people making is looking at a player with a five year track record whose situation really hasn't changed and expecting better results from him than you have seen to that point.

Opportunity, system and the players around someone are critical to success. If someone is looking at Ashlie Lelie and expecting him to suddenly be a star in San Fran I believe they are going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[Construction Man Jim]

Did I mention their run blocking suxor too?

The Giants were 6th in rushing in the NFL in 2005, and 7th in 2006. Only Atlanta (5485), San Diego (4650), Denver (4619), Kansas City (4525), Jacksonville (4500), and Washington (4399) have rushed for more yards than the Giants (4365) over the past two seasons.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

A huge part of fantasy football is finding guys that outperform the price you paid for them. LT just sticks out here because he had such a monster year that even as the #1 pick, he still vastly outperformed his draft position (no one was expecting 30+ TDs when they took him).

I bet you'll find more championship teams with Frank Gore or MJD than you will championship teams with Larry Johnson, even though LJ scored more points...

The same could probably be said for teams with Marques Colston or Lee Evans vs. teams with a guy like Chad Johnson.

And if your point is that you know Jacobs will not be a top 10 back, then I guess you were one of the guys missing out on MJD and Colston last year...Oh wait, you "bothered" with them.

Also, for all his worth LT only put up 13 points (130 total yards, 0 TDs) during week 16 - most league's championship week. So LT owners would end up pretty screwed had they not worried about other players. Head to head is far too fickle to rely on one guy to take you all the way through the playoffs without putting up less than 30pts at any point.

 

[Tau837]

The first thing to understand is that just a handful of players make the difference in a season...So the piint is this, why waste so much time debating about player that will never help carry you through to the championship. After the top10 at almost all the positions, most of those players left are not winning you games every week...So stop wasting your time on players that aren't going to make a real difference even if they outperform their draft spots by 10-20...focus on the guys that can win you a trophy, guys who are in great situations even if they are not the most tlaented...set your biasness aside for awhile.

No offense MOP, but this is a terrible post and premise. Others have already explained why.As someone else said, if you don't want to discuss players like Jacobs, don't. No one is forcing you to read or post in threads that are about players who won't finish in the top 10 at their positions.

 

[fatness]

OK, I get it now. Just pick the good players.

 

[chook]

OK, I get it now. Just pick the good players.

Sshhhhhhhhhh!We don't want everyone finding that out.

 

[Biabreakable]

Did I mention their run blocking suxor too?

The Giants were 6th in rushing in the NFL in 2005, and 7th in 2006. Only Atlanta (5485), San Diego (4650), Denver (4619), Kansas City (4525), Jacksonville (4500), and Washington (4399) have rushed for more yards than the Giants (4365) over the past two seasons.

Myself and others broke this down for you in some detail in the offensive line thread you started. You might do well to take notice of factual information and remove that ugly opinionated obstruction from your eye.While I think Tiki Barber has been a huge part of the Giants success as a running team there are 10 other players contributing to that success as well as coaching game plan commitment and philosophy playing a part in that success also.When eliminating 90% of of possible options to take into consideration you should at least not ignore situations that have a track record of success.Thanks for providing such an excellent example of what not to do as a fantasy football owner. Which is basing your draft/management decisions off of unsubstaintiated obtuse opinion combined with ignorance and a painful lack of objectivity.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Chris Smith wrote this.

New York Giants

Projected Starters: LT David Diehl, LG Gray Ruegamer, C Shaun O’Hara, RG Chris Snee, RT Kareem McKenzie

Key Backups: Guy Whimper, Rich Seubert Adam Koets

Key Additions: OT Adam Koets [r]

Key Losses: OT Luke Petitgout (Buccaneers)

The Giants lost long-time starter at left tackle Luke Petitgout to the Buccaneers. He was a leader of the unit and he’ll be missed. However he had been fighting injury problems over the past couple of seasons and hadn’t been as effective as in years past. It appears that David Diehl will move from left guard to start at the left tackle position and he has the ability to make that transition. The team did draft Adam Koets from Oregon State and his upside is considerable. However it is doubtful he’ll be ready to start in 2007. Kareem McKenzie is a fixture at right tackle. He is a big man who plays with a chip on his shoulder on every play. He punishes the defender across from him and is an aggressive run blocker. His pass blocking isn’t tremendous but he gets the job done. Chris Snee is an underrated guard who is one of the best run blockers in football. He is aggressive and never quits on a play. Shaun O’Hara is the leader of the group and is an above-average player. Finally it appears that Gray Ruegamer, a veteran with only 17 career starts slides into left tackle although he’ll be pushed in camp by several players. It’s one thing to let a player like Petitgout leave because there is someone ready to take over but that wasn’t the case in New York. Diehl will cover the spot well but he was a force at guard and nobody is going to replace what he brought to the table. Expect a bit of a drop off in 2007.

Sounds like the OL might not be as good...and a potential HoF RB like Tiki Barber that could run and catch as well as almost anyone in the league, down to Brandon Jacobs/Rebuen Droughns...Coughlin should have been let go so I don't put any stock in the coaching staff. I really see the Giants as a team with a top10 pick in the draft next year...they are going to lose a lot of games IMO...however they should be behind a lot so maybe Eli and Burress/Toomer(yes Toomer) might be the guys to go get from New York.

 

[EBF]

If you play in dynasty, you have to pay attention to everyone. One of the ways to get ahead in dynasty leagues is to consistently buy low and sell high. If you snag a guy off the waiver wire and trade him for a 3rd round rookie pick, you've added value to your team. So even if 95% of the guys on your roster will never be in the starting lineup of a championship team, that doesn't mean they can't help you ultimately build a contender.

 

[bonesman]

FWIW, i played in 3 competitive redrafts last year and Tomlinson wasn't on the last team standing in any of them. However Stephen Jackson was on 2 of 3.

 

[Stealthycat]

So stop wasting your time on players that aren't going to make a real difference

Willie Parker wasn't going to make a real differnce. Neither was Colston. Or Cotchery. Or Gore. Or Romo. Or that basketball kid that wanted to play TE ...... what was his name ? Gates ?Yeah, don't waste your time trying to find that cheap gem of a player. Play FF with blinders on, stick only with players you know won't let you down

 

[fsufan]

Sorry gotta disagree with you, at least for how it works in my keeper league

LT2 - 0 championships

LJ - 0 championships

S.Alexander - 0 championships

S.Jax - 0 championships

P.Manning - 1 championship

IMO fantasy football is all about luck and luck is what wins you championships.

fixed

 

[Ned]

the hindsight is 20.20 saying never fit so well...

 

[Construction Man Jim]

Chris Smith wrote this.

New York Giants

Projected Starters: LT David Diehl, LG Gray Ruegamer, C Shaun O’Hara, RG Chris Snee, RT Kareem McKenzie

Key Backups: Guy Whimper, Rich Seubert Adam Koets

Key Additions: OT Adam Koets [r]

Key Losses: OT Luke Petitgout (Buccaneers)

The Giants lost long-time starter at left tackle Luke Petitgout to the Buccaneers. He was a leader of the unit and he’ll be missed. However he had been fighting injury problems over the past couple of seasons and hadn’t been as effective as in years past. It appears that David Diehl will move from left guard to start at the left tackle position and he has the ability to make that transition. The team did draft Adam Koets from Oregon State and his upside is considerable. However it is doubtful he’ll be ready to start in 2007. Kareem McKenzie is a fixture at right tackle. He is a big man who plays with a chip on his shoulder on every play. He punishes the defender across from him and is an aggressive run blocker. His pass blocking isn’t tremendous but he gets the job done. Chris Snee is an underrated guard who is one of the best run blockers in football. He is aggressive and never quits on a play. Shaun O’Hara is the leader of the group and is an above-average player. Finally it appears that Gray Ruegamer, a veteran with only 17 career starts slides into left tackle although he’ll be pushed in camp by several players. It’s one thing to let a player like Petitgout leave because there is someone ready to take over but that wasn’t the case in New York. Diehl will cover the spot well but he was a force at guard and nobody is going to replace what he brought to the table. Expect a bit of a drop off in 2007.

Sounds like the OL might not be as good...and a potential HoF RB like Tiki Barber that could run and catch as well as almost anyone in the league, down to Brandon Jacobs/Rebuen Droughns...Coughlin should have been let go so I don't put any stock in the coaching staff. I really see the Giants as a team with a top10 pick in the draft next year...they are going to lose a lot of games IMO...however they should be behind a lot so maybe Eli and Burress/Toomer(yes Toomer) might be the guys to go get from New York.

Well no offense to Chris but he doesn't have a very good handle on the Giants o-line situation. First of all, the Giants did not "lose" Petitgout. They cut him (which is not an insignificant distinction). And don't forget he was injured in week 10 last year. They then went through the entire free agent period and draft process and the only move they made was to add Koets as depth in the 6th round. That's a pretty strong indication that they felt pretty good about the guys already on the roster.

Second, the Giants are very high on Guy Whimper who they took in the 4th round last year. I'm not sure why everyone forgets about him. While a bit of a project (they never had any intention of playing him last year) he has all the athleticism needed to play LT (and then some) and will compete in training camp with Diehl for that spot. So it's not a forgone conclusion that Diehl starts at LT. If Whimper wins the battle Diehl will stay at LG.

Third, Ruegamer will not be the starter at Left Guard (assuming Chris meant LG not LT otherwise he's way, way off). If Diehl starts at LT Rich Seubert will start at LG and he's not really a drop off at all from Diehl at that position. He most certainly can replace what Diehl brought to the table there so there's no reason to expect a drop off.

LT: Diehl/ Whimper

LG: Seubert

C: O'Hara

RG: Snee

RT: McKenzie

Depth: OT Koets, OG/OC Ruegamer, OG Matt Lentz (stashed on the PS last season)

Essentially you have the 5 returning starters from the end of last year (the Giants rushed for over 400 yards in their final two games) and Whimper as the wild card. Diehl and Seubert are strong run blockers and run blocking is already an acknowledged strength for the right side (which returns intact). If there are any questions about this unit going forward they have more to do with pass protection than run blocking (even though the Giants have allowed only 53 sacks over the past two seasons).

Anyway, if you need more "objective" and in-depth analysis, Football Outsiders had the Giants ranked as the 4th best run blocking unit in the entire league last year:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php

 

[faulkfan]

Another important thing at play here. We are talking about winning a championship, not just being competitive...I assume most people posting at this time of year in here know enough football to field a competitive team...we're talking about winning the championship. I again say there will be a handful of players that will make all the difference this season. many of them are not complete unknowns either.

Your hypothesis seems to be that if you focus on the obvious and take the guys that everyone knows (really thinks) will perform, then you will win a championship.Your above statement, however, brings your this notion into question. If I play in a league of guys who know how to field a competetive team then I really need to look for the hidden gems to give me the edge. Focusing on the obvious ignores the potential for injury, scheme changes, and drops in production.

Maybe you're right and weare all making this more complicated than it needs to be, but for me, this is what fantasy football is all about and it is what I love about playing it. Talking about possibilities, looking beyond the obvious and picking the brains of guys who share this same interest. Take that away and three quarters of the fun is gone with it.

 

[LawFitz]

Sorry dude, but I won my league last year with Kitna, Gore, Betts and Colston as part of my starting 10 during the championship week. And I beat the team with LT. . While I agree that you need to do well with your big name early players to win, you also need to hit on some late round and waiver wire values.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

i scored the 2nd highest points in the league & didn't make the playoffs. i had LT/holt/plaxico/colston for 1/2 the year & winslow. i got jobbed in the regular sesaon by playing romo & rex in their 5-4 td weeks, wayne & crumpler on their 3 td weeks, cj on his 2 td 260 yards day, etc. i finished 7-7