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**Wildcard Saturday - Chargers at Texans**(+3, 44.5) 4:30 on CBS (2 Viewers)

Home playoff dog
Don't see a Harbaugh team collapsing if they get up 27-0
Texans haven't looked great all year but here they are
I gotta think they put up a fight at home
C.J. gotta be careful against that defense
But Texans can get pressure too
I don't think it'll be a high scoring game
Two good kickers that could decide it also
Tough game to decipher for me
So when in doubt go with the home dog I guess...

Houston Texans- 23
Los Angeles Chargers- 22
 
Texans fan I'd love for them to get the win and they certainly can but given their season and history you'd be a fool betting on them and expecting them to win or cover. Some things to consider prior to betting.
Texans have 1 win vs .500 or over team and the Bills had some key players out and were routed by Ravens week prior. Texans were favored and beat them by 3 points as time expired at home.
Texans have 0 wins vs .500 or over team on the road.
Only CAR and ATL have given up more receiving Tds.
Texans top 3 given up most 40+ receptions. Only Jags and Cowboys are worse.
Can't find final stats but late in season heard they were either #1 or #2 in giving up most 40+ yard Tds. I went through every game and they have given up 8 Tds that were 40+ yards. 11 Tds that were 30+ yards. This wasn't even against DET or MIN it was teams like TEN and IND who did it to them twice which shows they can't seem to scheme for the long bomb TD. Indy threw a 60 and 54 yard TD in their first game and 69 yard in second game. TEN threw a 38 and 70 yard TD first game and 49 second game. That's very troubling and shows a consistent pattern on both sides of the ball where glaring mistakes were not corrected.
Texans getting into playoffs, like many times before, benefits from being in the worst AFC division. They've always been the excellent at beating up their division foes but not when it comes to any statement game vs a legit playoff team. Even as a Texans fan I'd love NFL to do away with auto division winner gets into playoffs. I want the best teams to get in and not a better team playing on the road vs a lesser team but these are the rules.
Well what about those close defeats vs GB and DET this year like some announers like to bring up during Texans games? When this is a pattern coming up short year in year out vs playoff teams you can't assume this was a fluke and they could have won. The same people won't say anything if you say well then what about their close wins shouldn't we say they could have lost? Lets break that down:
Wins by one score (7 pts) or less: 6
Wins by 3 pts or less: 4
After many losses the coaching staff seemed to focus on the positives and would usually blame the defense such as we shouldn't have given up x amount of points. Great teams focus on what they did wrong regardless if they won and I get that Ryans is a positive type guy but not playing well and your coaches gives you excuses as to why never turns out well.
What about key injuries that's probably why they lost. I don't agree. Look at Tank Dell. Great player last year until he got hurt. What happened to his this year? Why didn't he have more games like he did vs KC before injured? Can't blame Diggs since Tank had ghost like games after Diggs was injured.
This is on their coaching. In many cases I can tell what play they are going to run so I can't believe expert NFL coaches don't know. They run a screen play constantly and I'm willing to bet no one does it worse or gets negative yards than Texans yet they continue to run it. There are no easy type plays and many appear to be if it doesn't work Stroud's job is to them improvise. You can't last long doing that and really shocked Stroud was able to get through entire season. He's not innocent and should get some of the blame but they do little to nothing to scheme easy type plays or more plays where he doesn't get killed. I expect Harbaugh to continue to exploit the Texans weakness.
I will post this in the Texans thread in case non bettors or specific game thread and if I have more to add I will.
All that said until Texans can win 2 playoff games you really shouldn't ever bet on them unless they are playing an Andy Dalton Benglas type team that never wins postseason or backup third/fourth string QB like Flacco or Connon Cook.
Chargers 27
Texans 20
 
Early reaction to the line is take the Texans as a home dog
Texans play in a soft division but they knew they were getting in the Playoffs
2 out of their 3 weapons at WR are on the shelf
Still think the Texans find a way to get it done, Chargers are ahead of schedule right now
Bolts don't scare a lot of teams with their skill players outside of Herbert
 
As a Baltimore fan, I’m a huge JK Dobbins believer. It’s so hard to see him keep getting injured because if fully healthy, his floor is Ray Rice and his ceiling is higher because he was just as quick but maybe even a little more physical.

When he was playing in November game vs the Ravens, the Chargers marched straight down the field and scored 10 quick points. Then he got hurt and the offense stagnated.

When Dobbins is in the lineup this year the Chargers are 9-4, and have won 6 of the last 7 (only loss in that stretch was vs Baltimore when he went out early in the game) averaging more than 31 ppg when you take out the Ravens games, where they scored 23. Their other losses when Dobbins plays are by 2 at AZ, by 7 at KC and by 10 at Pittsburgh (and all of those were before late October)

Mixon has really struggled for the Texans lately and I don’t think they’ll run enough to force LA out of the deep zone shell it likes to play. And with the injuries to the Houston WRs and the struggles Stroud has had lately, the passing game isn’t a good match-up either

My Dobbins fandom might be misleading me, but Chargers over Texans is my highest confidence pick of Wild Card weekend, I’ll say 30-17 but the game won’t be as close as that score indicates
 
Texans have had the same unsolved problem all year, which is their interior OL are the worst in the league. To attempt o overcome that Slowek runs play action a ton, which can exacerbate the issue - PA is generally slow developing.

Both teams have a good defense, would not surprise me if the total is around 30-31.I like the LAC to advance.

OTOH, Stroud has a history of coming up huge in the biggest games. His last Natty game, the blowout of the Browns. A repeats of that seems very unlikely.

Does anyone know the reasoning behind Houston always being the first game of WC weekend? 8 for 8 now.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Texans have had the same unsolved problem all year, which is their interior OL are the worst in the league. To attempt o overcome that Slowek runs play action a ton, which can exacerbate the issue - PA is generally slow developing.

Both teams have a good defense, would not surprise me if the total is around 30-31.I like the LAC to advance.

OTOH, Stroud has a history of coming up huge in the biggest games. His last Natty game, the blowout of the Browns. A repeats of that seems very unlikely.

Does anyone know the reasoning behind Houston always being the first game of WC weekend? 8 for 8 now.
Click to expand...
Yeah. Texans want it over before the BBQ is ruined. Timing is everything.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Texans have had the same unsolved problem all year, which is their interior OL are the worst in the league. To attempt to overcome that Slowek runs play action a ton, which can exacerbate the issue - PA is generally slow developing.
Click to expand...

This same statement could be said about the Chargers.

With that being said, I still think we'll come out on top. Although it might be lower scoring than a lot of people expect.

Chargers 19
Texans 13

Since my son and I will be in the stands, I'm hoping for more fireworks than this though, at least from the Bolts anyway.
 
I think the Chargers are a better team than the Texans, but the Texans match up pretty well against them.

I think this game will come down to whether the Chargers can stop (or at least contain) Nico Collins. He's been the engine of the Texans offense, and the Chargers have a good but not great secondary. Personally, I'd double him the entire game and make someone else beat me. If that means just 4 man rushes all game, so be it. This also feels like a game where Stroud may need to use his legs, which he's always seemed hesitant to do.

For the Chargers, I expect Herbert to have an effective game. The big issue for the Texans, is Jeff Okudah. Stingley can't cover both McConkey and Johnston. I think much like last week, we get a big Johnston game. He (and Bryce Young) really bounced back from being written off after one season, and are a reminder why people shouldn't do that, especially with 1st round prospects.

I think Houston keeps it very close, and maybe even leads at halftime, but the Chargers are just better. Expecting lots of chunk gains, but most drives ending in FGs.

Chargers-23
Texans-20
 
I see Herbert getting his first playoff win here and I think him being able to scramble and pick up yards when needed will be a big factor. He will lay it on the line to get the playoff monkey off his back and Harbaugh will have his troops ready to roll. Having Dobbins back is huge for this offense and I see him helping the Chargers control this game as HOU has really struggled against the run the last three games (and oddly they give up quite a few more rushing yards at home versus away, although I don’t believe that is terribly relevant).
 
travdogg said:
I think the Chargers are a better team than the Texans, but the Texans match up pretty well against them.

I think this game will come down to whether the Chargers can stop (or at least contain) Nico Collins. He's been the engine of the Texans offense, and the Chargers have a good but not great secondary. Personally, I'd double him the entire game and make someone else beat me. If that means just 4 man rushes all game, so be it. This also feels like a game where Stroud may need to use his legs, which he's always seemed hesitant to do.

For the Chargers, I expect Herbert to have an effective game. The big issue for the Texans, is Jeff Okudah. Stingley can't cover both McConkey and Johnston. I think much like last week, we get a big Johnston game. He (and Bryce Young) really bounced back from being written off after one season, and are a reminder why people shouldn't do that, especially with 1st round prospects.

I think Houston keeps it very close, and maybe even leads at halftime, but the Chargers are just better. Expecting lots of chunk gains, but most drives ending in FGs.

Chargers-23
Texans-20
Click to expand...
I agree in that chargers need to contain Nico. him and Mixon. I also agree that their secondary is good but not great. but their pass rush is very good and that makes up for a lot. if the QB has a guy in his face, the secondary does not need to blanket the WR for nearly as long.

I do think Herbert is the better QB of the two QB starting in this game. and his young WR are starting to figure things out.

I think this is the chargers game. I predict:
Chargers 27
Texans 20
 
travdogg said:
think the Chargers are a better team than the Texans, but the Texans match up pretty well against them.
Click to expand...
From an offensive angle I think the Texans are an ideal match for the Chargers. I say that because Anderson and Hunter account for close to half their sack production and the Chargers bookend OT's in theory have the talent to neutralize their impact.

The second reason is Stingley which brings me to....
travdogg said:
Stingley can't cover both McConkey and Johnston. I think much like last week, we get a big Johnston game.
Click to expand...
I'm seeing this the other way. Stingely almost never covers the slot, his high for the season is 4.4% snaps covering the slot. Which to me sounds like a formula for really low production Johnston game and a huge McConkey game.


travdogg said:
I think this game will come down to whether the Chargers can stop (or at least contain) Nico Collins. He's been the engine of the Texans offense, and the Chargers have a good but not great secondary. Personally, I'd double him the entire game and make someone else beat me.
Click to expand...

I agree with most of this except I think Nico can have a huge game and it still not be nearly enough. I think Houston needs a huge Nico game AND Mixon to return to form to have a shot. But agree the Chargers should commit every resource they have to slowing him down.
 
Texans 24
Ch'rger 21

Los Angeles has been thru hell this week, I'm betting against Los Angeles in BOTH games
I don't care why they might be mentally discombobulated, I just want to bet the right side of things

Good luck to everyone
 
I agree with MOP. Feel like the Texans not getting enough love as the home team. I think it will be close. I'll give the Texans benefit of the doubt for being home.
 
Manster said:
I agree with MOP. Feel like the Texans not getting enough love as the home team. I think it will be close. I'll give the Texans benefit of the doubt for being home.
Click to expand...
Uh..I said the Texans beat them as well. Also took a lot of heat for it. Just sayin. In another thread. LOL . Just Realized.
This one:
Gr00vus

Thread '**** Chargers 2024 Thread - Because No One Demanded It ****'

Hi Everybody!

I'm not going to even reference previous threads. We'll start clean. Like the Chargers are sort of doing, but with the same lousy ownership.

Jim Harbaugh was in town yesterday. I hope that went well. Did anyone hear anything meaningful in relation to that?

If they have to keep the #5 pick, who do you think they would/should select there? I'm hoping they find a partner to trade down and add picks with myself.
  • Like
 
I just bought a couple four packs of small batch Hex Bolt IPA from Industrial Arts for the game. I think it's a sign.

Gumbo almost done, let's go Chargers!
 
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