Will J-stew overthrow D-Will (1 Viewer)

[jdawg]

I noticed in many mocks that i have done (10 team league) that D-will goes around the end of round 1 to the middle of round 2.

J-stew goes in like the 4th or 5th

Do you guys think J-stew will emerge as the go-to guy?

How will the caries be 60-40 , 70-30?

If J-stew gets the majority of the carries I think he could be a steal in round 4 or 5

What do you guys think?

 

[finito]

I think it'll be just like last year for the most part (before DWill got hurt).

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm not going to get into the analysis of it, but no.

 

[zadok]

Stewart won't get the majority of the carries until Williams gets hurt or declines in effectiveness.

 

[nysportsfan]

Stewart won't get the majority of the carries until Williams gets hurt or declines in effectiveness.

 

[JaxBill]

It might all depend on how much TC that JStew misses because of INJ. JFox might feel that DWill has more chemistry with MMoore and give him more PT.

 

[fightingillini]

I noticed in many mocks that i have done (10 team league) that D-will goes around the end of round 1 to the middle of round 2.J-stew goes in like the 4th or 5thDo you guys think J-stew will emerge as the go-to guy?How will the caries be 60-40 , 70-30?I J-stew gets the majority of the carries I think he could be a steal in round 4 or 5What do you guys think?

Do you think Stewart is that much more talented than DAngelo? I don't think so. Both are talented RBs. DWill can take it to the house on any play. Stewart is more a power back. Both complement each other very well. CAR is going to run the football 25-35 times a game. Both are going to get their share. DAngelo should get 55-60%, Stewart gets 40-45%. I can't see it being any different barring an injury to one of them.Assuming CAR runs 480 times (30 a game).....55% is 264 and 45% is 216. Seems reasonable to me. The split last year was 50/50 and DAngelo missed some time. The main question is how the TDs will be distributed. But I see the CAR offense improving with Moore at QB so there's a good chance both RBs could score 10 TDs.Can Stewart be a steal in 4 or 5? Sure if DAngelo goes down. But I can see some inconsistency if Fox decides to go with the hot hand in a particular game.

 

[Fighting Noles]

No....If you look at the games when DeAngelo was healthy last year, Stewart was barely startable for FF in ~ 3/4 of them. Many remember Stewarts' points during their FF playoffs (when DWill was OUT) and look at his end of year #'s and think he is no worse than a RB2, with RB1 upside. That's not what the numbers say. If someone wants to predict "injury" again to DWill and that Stewart stays healthy, that's a different matter. But I think he is being somewhat overdrafted in redrafts actually.

Dynasty is another matter, but I think he is also being somewhat overdrafted there. As RB 5 or 6 in Dynasty Drafts this is totally based on the widespread assumption that DWill is "gone" after 2010 AND that Stewart then will have the entire backfield to himself at that point. I think those are both fairly big assumptions to be building into that high a ranking. His supporters will say he has RB 1-5 "upside", but when he is routinely drafted as RB 5 or 6 (esp. in FBGuy drafts) that leaves more downside then up IMO....

 

[bostonfred]

Carolina grooms a back, runs them into the ground, then drafts another one so they can get rid of the current one before they have to pay them the big bucks. This is Williams' last year in Carolina and they'll run him until his legs fall off imo.

 

[Avery]

Injury predictions aside, why would the Panthers go away from a strategy that was very successful last year, using both backs with an almost perfect 50-50 split?

 

[JohnnyU]

Stewart won't get the majority of the carries until Williams gets hurt or declines in effectiveness.

Not only is this a good post, but he did it without having to use those cute little nicknames for the players. What a breath of fresh air that is.

 

[Sweet Love]

Carolina grooms a back, runs them into the ground, then drafts another one so they can get rid of the current one before they have to pay them the big bucks. This is Williams' last year in Carolina and they'll run him until his legs fall off imo.

While this is true (Sephen Davis to DeShaun Foster (although he was a scrub) to DWill eventually to JStew), I am always shocked more teams do not do this. I have a feeling Miami may do this (or at least they should) with Ronnie Brown if he is healthy.

 

[latrops]

No....If you look at the games when DeAngelo was healthy last year, Stewart was barely startable for FF in ~ 3/4 of them. Many remember Stewarts' points during their FF playoffs (when DWill was OUT) and look at his end of year #'s and think he is no worse than a RB2, with RB1 upside. That's not what the numbers say. If someone wants to predict "injury" again to DWill and that Stewart stays healthy, that's a different matter. But I think he is being somewhat overdrafted in redrafts actually.

Well said. Four of Stewarts five 100 yard games came in weeks 13-17. Williams missed 3 of those games and was less than 100% in the two he played. Stewart didn't get more than 17 carries in ANY game prior to Williams getting hurt. In 7 of the 13 games Williams did play, Stewart finished with fewer than 50 yards rushing. The bottom line is that Stewart was frustratingly inconsistent and often useless when Williams was healthy. Project things to be different this year if you want, but there is much more risk associated with him than is apparent when you look at his final numbers. Of course, there is tremendous upside as well. Williams hasn't been the most durable back, and if he does go down, Stewart is arguably a top 5 rb.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Williams is one of most talented and effective RBs in the league. He is in his prime. There is no reason for him to NOT get at least 50% of the carries.

Here's a fun one:

Here are the guys he's behind in terms of career YPC over the last 50 years or so:

Bo Jackson

Chris Johnson (fairly low sample size at this point, sitting at 5.3)

Jim Brown

End of list.

 

[fsufan]

Injury predictions aside, why would the Panthers go away from a strategy that was very successful last year, using both backs with an almost perfect 50-50 split?

i do not think we will see Stewart get the bulk of the carries for 2 or 3 years. if it is not broke do not fixi was shocked when i noticed Stewart was only 23 and he has been in the league 2 yeasr. figured he would be 25

 

[billyjohnson]

I think the real question here is: Will JStew steal the majority of the goal line TOUCHDOWNS from DeAngelo? That is what is gonna hurt for DeAngleo owners...seeing Stewart trotting out there on every run inside the five.

 

[Moniker]

No.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jdawg is not an MOP alias Brong

 

[bostonfred]

Carolina grooms a back, runs them into the ground, then drafts another one so they can get rid of the current one before they have to pay them the big bucks. This is Williams' last year in Carolina and they'll run him until his legs fall off imo.

While this is true (Sephen Davis to DeShaun Foster (although he was a scrub) to DWill eventually to JStew), I am always shocked more teams do not do this. I have a feeling Miami may do this (or at least they should) with Ronnie Brown if he is healthy.

It's no different from saying that every team should trade their first round pick like the Patriots do seemingly every year. It's a lot harder to do it when you need to win right now to keep your job. Spending a first on Stewart or a second on Williams without planning on playing them right away is the same thing - you're trading a draft pick today for future performance. But the best teams do this - whether it's the old Steelers grooming linebackers, or the Giants and Panthers grooming running backs, or the Pats grooming offensive linemen, or the Eagles grooming d-backs, good teams work to their strengths, and develop quality players and good depth so they can get great production cheaply from expensive, high impact positions.

 

[Nero]

Injury predictions aside, why would the Panthers go away from a strategy that was very successful last year, using both backs with an almost perfect 50-50 split?

Almost right. It was 60/40 in favor of Deangelo when they were both healthy. Most don't expect that to change, which is why Deangelo still goes in the first round.

 

[finito]

Williams is one of most talented and effective RBs in the league. He is in his prime. There is no reason for him to NOT get at least 50% of the carries.Here's a fun one:Here are the guys he's behind in terms of career YPC over the last 50 years or so:Bo JacksonChris Johnson (fairly low sample size at this point, sitting at 5.3)Jim BrownEnd of list.

Bo only had 515 attempts in his entire career, Chris Johnson has already eclipsed that with 609.But DeAngelo is in nice company for sure.

 

[RBM]

Williams is one of most talented and effective RBs in the league. He is in his prime.

So is Stewart

 

[Mr. Fusion]

Carolina grooms a back, runs them into the ground, then drafts another one so they can get rid of the current one before they have to pay them the big bucks. This is Williams' last year in Carolina and they'll run him until his legs fall off imo.

While this is true (Sephen Davis to DeShaun Foster (although he was a scrub) to DWill eventually to JStew), I am always shocked more teams do not do this. I have a feeling Miami may do this (or at least they should) with Ronnie Brown if he is healthy.

It's no different from saying that every team should trade their first round pick like the Patriots do seemingly every year. It's a lot harder to do it when you need to win right now to keep your job. Spending a first on Stewart or a second on Williams without planning on playing them right away is the same thing - you're trading a draft pick today for future performance. But the best teams do this - whether it's the old Steelers grooming linebackers, or the Giants and Panthers grooming running backs, or the Pats grooming offensive linemen, or the Eagles grooming d-backs, good teams work to their strengths, and develop quality players and good depth so they can get great production cheaply from expensive, high impact positions.

I think the difference with running backs is that they command zero trade value in the NFL (aside from Hershel Walker).So, why not run them into the ground before their contract is up?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Stewart won't get the majority of the carries until Williams gets hurt or declines in effectiveness.

Not only is this a good post, but he did it without having to use those cute little nicknames for the players. What a breath of fresh air that is.

Uh, like JohnnyU? Sorry, couldn't resist Agree with the analysis that it won't really be J-Stew's time until D-Will has had the wheels run off of him. Crazy thing is that J-Stew always seems to get 9-10 TDs regardless making it very hard to pinpoint exactly where he should go.-QG

 

[billyjohnson]

Stewart won't get the majority of the carries until Williams gets hurt or declines in effectiveness.

Not only is this a good post, but he did it without having to use those cute little nicknames for the players. What a breath of fresh air that is.

Uh, like JohnnyU? Sorry, couldn't resist

Agree with the analysis that it won't really be J-Stew's time until D-Will has had the wheels run off of him. Crazy thing is that J-Stew always seems to get 9-10 TDs regardless making it very hard to pinpoint exactly where he should go.

-QG

 

[Bayhawks]

Carolina grooms a back, runs them into the ground, then drafts another one so they can get rid of the current one before they have to pay them the big bucks. This is Williams' last year in Carolina and they'll run him until his legs fall off imo.

While your opinion could certainly end up being right, I don't know if I agree with the premise on which you've based it.While Carolina has (over the length of Fox's coaching tenure) tended to focus on the run & have had a tendency to rely on more than 1 RB, I don't see Fox as a coach who always:

grooms a back, runs them into the ground, then drafts another one so they can get rid of the current one before they have to pay them the big bucks.

Fox has coached the Panthers since 20022002-The lead RB was Lamar Smith with 209 carries/707 yards (11 games). 2nd RB was Dee Brown with 102/360. Smith was 32, and playing for his 4th NFL team. I'd hardly say they groomed Smith, or that Fox ran him into the ground with 209 carries. Furthermore, they weren't grooming Dee Brown either, since he wasn't even on the team in 2003.

2003-The lead RB was Stephen Davis, acquired in free agency. He had 318 carries for 1444 yards (14 games). 2nd RB was DeShaun Foster (drafted in the 2nd round), with 113/429. One could argue that Carolina was grooming Foster to be Davis' replacement, and that they were running Davis "into the ground" while grooming Foster. However, since Davis was a free agent who had experienced a good deal of success in the NFL, it's hard to argue that he was being run into the ground. Rather that he was being used as the main RB, which is what he was being paid as.

2004-This year doesn't really tell us much of anything. Davis and Foster got hurt, which led to Nick Goings being the lead RB.

2005-This year, Foster was the lead back with 205 carries for 879 yards. Davis was 2nd RB with 180/549. It's important to note, however, that Fox kept Davis as the starter with 11 starts to 5 for Foster. If you wanted to argue that Fox was "running Davis into the ground" this season, you could. I'm, however, more inclined to agree that this was a case of Fox being loyal to his veteran player(s), and sticking with them. Especially when you have the advantage of looking at other examples of him doing the same thing.

2006-Foster was the lead RB, with 227 carries for 897 yards. 2nd RB was Williams (drafted in the 1st round), with 121/501. This is the first true example of Carolina "grooming" a RB, with Foster having spent a few years as the 2nd RB to Davis, now assuming the RB1 mantle.

2007-Foster was the lead RB, with 247 carries for 876 yards. 2nd RB was Williams again, with 144/717. Despite Williams having a higher YPC, YPReception, and more TDs, Fox stuck with his veteran. Foster started all 16 games. However, Foster had only 272 touches, so he was hardly being "run into the ground."

2008-Williams was the lead RB, with 273/1515. Stewart (drafted in the 1st round) was the 2nd RB, with 184/836. Foster was allowed to leave in the off-season. Williams was "groomed" for the RB1 spot, but I'd hardly say that Foster was "run into the ground." He averaged 195 touches/year (170 carries & 25 rec) in his 5 years in Carolina, with a high of 272 touches. He was 28 when they let him leave, so it's not like they "used him up" until the hit the wall at 30. He just wasn't very good, and was out-performed by his back-up, Williams. It made no sense to keep him. This could be looked at as the beginning of the "grooming" of Stewart, but Williams with only 295 total touches, could hardly be described as a back being "run into the ground."

2009-Just using the numbers, Stewart was the lead RB, with 221 for 1133. Williams was the 2nd RB with 216/1117. However, Williams missed 3 games (weeks 15, 16, 17), and was hurt early in a 4th (week 14). During those 4 weeks, Stewart received 76 carries to Williams' 6. Prior to week 14, the carry split was Williams-200, Stewart-145, a 58%/42% split. Williams had a higher YPC and a higher YPReception average. For that reason, 2009 could still be looked at as part of the "grooming" of Stewart, but AGAIN, Williams wasn't being "run into the ground."

So we have 3 examples of RBs being "groomed" in Carolina, under Fox, but THERE ARE NO EXAMPLES OF FOX RUNNING A RB INTO THE GROUND. Lamar Smith was already an old RB when Fox got to Carolina. Stephen Davis was a 29 year old, 7 year veteran, FA who had already had almost 1400 carries in the NFL, when he got there. Fox didn't run him into the ground, he was already almost there. Foster wasn't run into the ground, he averaged less than 200 touches/season during his 5 year stint.

Furthermore, there isn't a single example of Carolina, under Fox, getting rid of a RB before they had to have to "pay them the big bucks." Lamar Smith and Stephen Davis were past their prime when they left and neither were demanded "big bucks." Foster wasn't as good as Williams, and he didn't get "big bucks" elsewhere.

So while it's possible that Williams is going to be on another team in 2011, it's not nearly the lock that you seem to believe it is, based on past history of Fox OR the Panthers.

 

[Bayhawks]

I think the real question here is: Will JStew steal the majority of the goal line TOUCHDOWNS from DeAngelo? That is what is gonna hurt for DeAngleo owners...seeing Stewart trotting out there on every run inside the five.

Why would you assume this is going to happen?Stewart is a good short-yardage runner, but so is Williams. Since Williams is perfectly capable of getting short TDs, it would make very little sense to use Stewart as the exclusive short-yardage runner, since this would "telegraph" in a way, what the Carolina O was trying to do. Since both backs are capable of getting the short, tough yards, it would make more sense to use them both in that role, to avoid the defense keying on a particular player, or particular type of play.

 

[SuperJohn96]

It might all depend on how much TC that JStew misses because of INJ. JFox might feel that DWill has more chemistry with MMoore and give him more PT.

Are you TRYING to use as much shorthand as possible?

 

[MDSkinner]

It might all depend on how much TC that JStew misses because of INJ. JFox might feel that DWill has more chemistry with MMoore and give him more PT.

Are you TRYING to use as much shorthand as possible?

I think he clearly was and did an excellent job at that.To the original, I agree with those who think they will run the wheels off Williams this year the best that they can. I am sure they will both see significant playing time, but I would be shocked if Stewart got more carries unless there was an injury. And I am a Stewart owner so I hope I am wrong, just don't see it happening.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Bizarre topic (but a couple great posts by Bayhawks). I've seen zero evidence to suggest that Fox will install Stewart as the starter (or primary ball carrier) over Williams.

 

[purestrength]

I wouldn't mind having Stewart on my PPR redraft teams. But he keeps going higher and higher in each draft and I can't pull the trigger that soon when I haven't seen any evidence that he's any better or healthier than the No. 1 RB on his own team.

 

[jaybebo]

Seems to me Fox sticks with his veterans as was evidence in continued support of Delhomme...

 

[Catbird]

Is the plan not working in some way that would lead anyone besides fantasy owners to want to change it?? Carolina lives and dies by the run. Is it a mistake to not stress either of your RBs too heavily and try to make sure that no matter what, you CAN still have a great RB and power offense (RBs do get injured). Add in that you can't trade RBs for comperable value and (other than sheer salary cost) why would CAR want to give away Williams any time soon? Schneikes makes an incredible point on how truly exceptional he is.

I think Stewart not having the bone spur pain any more and the perceived value of a battering goal lone back might lead to a more nearly 50/50 split of fantasy points than we saw last year when both were healthy, but I expect fairly equal value for both as RBs #12/#13 or some such for the next couple or three years, until DeAngelo begins to fade ... or Fox gets tossed and another coach comes in with another plan.

I own both on one team (and would love to have DWill traded - but think it would be foolish for CAR) and you almost end up hoping one will get hurt - because the survivor becomes SO dominant that with even an RB3 you would be scoring more FF points. Tough for us but great for CAR.

 

[Exit 1]

J-stew? D-Will?

Stop, please.

 

[cobalt_27]

Injury predictions aside, why would the Panthers go away from a strategy that was very successful last year, using both backs with an almost perfect 50-50 split?

i do not think we will see Stewart get the bulk of the carries for 2 or 3 years. if it is not broke do not fixi was shocked when i noticed Stewart was only 23 and he has been in the league 2 yeasr. figured he would be 25

Wait. If you think Stewart has to wait until 2013 to get the majority of reps, who do you think he's going to share carries with in 2011 and 2012? Mike Goodson?

 

[Koya]

As has been echo'd here, the opportunity will be decided by productivity, and productivity will be decided by health and that being equal, skill.

D. Williams has more skill than Stewart. It's that simple. Both are very good backs, Williams is more talented with more breakaway in him. The guy is one of the most talented backs in the league, and as long as he is healthy he will be the 60 in the 60-40 split.

 

[fsufan]

Injury predictions aside, why would the Panthers go away from a strategy that was very successful last year, using both backs with an almost perfect 50-50 split?

i do not think we will see Stewart get the bulk of the carries for 2 or 3 years. if it is not broke do not fixi was shocked when i noticed Stewart was only 23 and he has been in the league 2 yeasr. figured he would be 25

Wait. If you think Stewart has to wait until 2013 to get the majority of reps, who do you think he's going to share carries with in 2011 and 2012? Mike Goodson?

didnt DW sign a new deal or working on a new deal?

 

[cobalt_27]

Injury predictions aside, why would the Panthers go away from a strategy that was very successful last year, using both backs with an almost perfect 50-50 split?

i do not think we will see Stewart get the bulk of the carries for 2 or 3 years. if it is not broke do not fixi was shocked when i noticed Stewart was only 23 and he has been in the league 2 yeasr. figured he would be 25

Wait. If you think Stewart has to wait until 2013 to get the majority of reps, who do you think he's going to share carries with in 2011 and 2012? Mike Goodson?

didnt DW sign a new deal or working on a new deal?

Definitely has not signed a new deal. Nothing I've heard has him discussing anything with CAR. Could be in the works in the background, but I think he'll wind up making big $ on the FA market, instead.

 

[fsufan]

Injury predictions aside, why would the Panthers go away from a strategy that was very successful last year, using both backs with an almost perfect 50-50 split?

i do not think we will see Stewart get the bulk of the carries for 2 or 3 years. if it is not broke do not fixi was shocked when i noticed Stewart was only 23 and he has been in the league 2 yeasr. figured he would be 25

Wait. If you think Stewart has to wait until 2013 to get the majority of reps, who do you think he's going to share carries with in 2011 and 2012? Mike Goodson?

didnt DW sign a new deal or working on a new deal?

Definitely has not signed a new deal. Nothing I've heard has him discussing anything with CAR. Could be in the works in the background, but I think he'll wind up making big $ on the FA market, instead.

thought i saw a thread here in the SP about DW and the panthers talking extension, could be wrong. I do hope Stewart gets his shot at the #1 RB very soon, I think he will be a beast

 

[Jerry Lawler]

I remember Len Pasquarelli speculating that the Panthers might lock up Williams long-term, but no substantive reports that I've seen. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. imo, the Panthers stick with veterans longer than any other team. How many teams would have started Delhomme and Muhammad last year? By the time Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster left town, they weren't even NFL-level RB's. Williams is nowhere near that level of decline, if any. Bayhawks did a good job of pointing out that the Panthers good into each season planning to use a tandem backfield. This dates back to the Davis-Foster backfield of 2003 and will likely continue as long as Fox and Hurney are in town.

We could all be proven fools 3 weeks into the season, but there's every indication that Williams will get 55-60% of the carries when they're both healthy.

 

[fsufan]

is this DW's last year on his current deal?

 

[cobalt_27]

I remember Len Pasquarelli speculating that the Panthers might lock up Williams long-term, but no substantive reports that I've seen. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. imo, the Panthers stick with veterans longer than any other team. How many teams would have started Delhomme and Muhammad last year? By the time Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster left town, they weren't even NFL-level RB's. Williams is nowhere near that level of decline, if any. Bayhawks did a good job of pointing out that the Panthers good into each season planning to use a tandem backfield. This dates back to the Davis-Foster backfield of 2003 and will likely continue as long as Fox and Hurney are in town. We could all be proven fools 3 weeks into the season, but there's every indication that Williams will get 55-60% of the carries when they're both healthy.

Good points. Only problem for CAR is that Williams is going to ask for a lot more money than they have ever paid out to any RB. So, to fork over the coin necessary to get him to re-up (assuming he even wants to stay in a RB share for a rebuilding team), sort of dims the lights on the possibility of them coming to an agreement, imo.

 

[cobalt_27]

is this DW's last year on his current deal?

Yes.

 

[FavreCo]

Stewart is a bad step from IR for the year the way his lower legs are hurt. Has he even made on the field yet this camp? Answer = no.

 

[Herm23]

Carolina grooms a back, runs them into the ground, then drafts another one so they can get rid of the current one before they have to pay them the big bucks. This is Williams' last year in Carolina and they'll run him until his legs fall off imo.

While this is true (Sephen Davis to DeShaun Foster (although he was a scrub) to DWill eventually to JStew), I am always shocked more teams do not do this. I have a feeling Miami may do this (or at least they should) with Ronnie Brown if he is healthy.

It's no different from saying that every team should trade their first round pick like the Patriots do seemingly every year. It's a lot harder to do it when you need to win right now to keep your job. Spending a first on Stewart or a second on Williams without planning on playing them right away is the same thing - you're trading a draft pick today for future performance. But the best teams do this - whether it's the old Steelers grooming linebackers, or the Giants and Panthers grooming running backs, or the Pats grooming offensive linemen, or the Eagles grooming d-backs, good teams work to their strengths, and develop quality players and good depth so they can get great production cheaply from expensive, high impact positions.

I think the difference with running backs is that they command zero trade value in the NFL (aside from Hershel Walker).So, why not run them into the ground before their contract is up?

Are you forgetting the Clinton Portis for Champ Bailey deal from 2004? The Redskins were giving up the best cornerback in the entire league who was still very young and well within his prime...and yet they STILL had to add in a 2nd rounder in order to get the Broncos to pull the trigger.The statement that running backs command zero trade value in the NFL couldn't be more false. The reality is that very, very few (if any) teams are ever looking to trade a bellcow, elite level running back when he is just about to hit his prime or right in the middle of it. Teams tend to begin looking to trade their backfield pieces once they are entering the backside of their prime, are completely on the wrong side of their prime, or have suffered some sort of serious injury, which is the point in time running backs tend to lose most, if not all, trade value.

 

[bostonfred]

Furthermore, there isn't a single example of Carolina, under Fox, getting rid of a RB before they had to have to "pay them the big bucks." Lamar Smith and Stephen Davis were past their prime when they left and neither were demanded "big bucks." Foster wasn't as good as Williams, and he didn't get "big bucks" elsewhere.

Good stuff. A couple things. First, great job with the numbers you posted. I think they're consistent with what I said - that they groom a #2 until they replace the #1 - it's just that what I referred to as them "running the #1 into the ground", you refer to as "sticking with the veteran". We're talking about the same thing - at least until now, the veteran has seemed to get the bulk of the carries. Even when DeAngelo was outperforming Foster. Similarly, when you say that they didn't have to pay Davis or Smith the big bucks because they were "past their prime", again, I say that that's because they "ran them into the ground" - ran them until they weren't good anymore. I think we agree, for the most part - they run the lead back until he can't run anymore while grooming a young guy behind him to eventually take over, they try to always have two good backs, and they tend to stick with the veteran. I think we also agree that they will probably stick with their veteran again this year, even if the younger guy looks good. If I'm reading you correctly, it seems like you disagree that they'd let DeAngelo walk. And you may be right - I don't know for sure. It wouldn't surprise me if they re-signed him. This is a somewhat unique situation in that there's no compelling reason to let Williams go, although he may be very expensive. Good post.

 

[Bayhawks]

Furthermore, there isn't a single example of Carolina, under Fox, getting rid of a RB before they had to have to "pay them the big bucks." Lamar Smith and Stephen Davis were past their prime when they left and neither were demanded "big bucks." Foster wasn't as good as Williams, and he didn't get "big bucks" elsewhere.

Good stuff. A couple things. First, great job with the numbers you posted. I think they're consistent with what I said - that they groom a #2 until they replace the #1 - it's just that what I referred to as them "running the #1 into the ground", you refer to as "sticking with the veteran". We're talking about the same thing - at least until now, the veteran has seemed to get the bulk of the carries. Even when DeAngelo was outperforming Foster. Similarly, when you say that they didn't have to pay Davis or Smith the big bucks because they were "past their prime", again, I say that that's because they "ran them into the ground" - ran them until they weren't good anymore.

I think we agree, for the most part - they run the lead back until he can't run anymore while grooming a young guy behind him to eventually take over, they try to always have two good backs, and they tend to stick with the veteran. I think we also agree that they will probably stick with their veteran again this year, even if the younger guy looks good.

If I'm reading you correctly, it seems like you disagree that they'd let DeAngelo walk. And you may be right - I don't know for sure. It wouldn't surprise me if they re-signed him. This is a somewhat unique situation in that there's no compelling reason to let Williams go, although he may be very expensive.

Good post.

Not necessarily that they wouldn't let him walk. Rather I disagree that this is (definitely) his last year in Carolina. Williams is the lead back, and (IMO) the Panthers can't be sure they can rely on Stewart to be the lead back for an entire season. I've posted several times before (in other threads) that Stewart is super-talented, but (and he's admitted this himself recently), he's NEVER been 100% healthy in the NFL. The Panthers know that he can be successful when his carries are limited. They don't yet know if he can be the lead RB, for a full season. Furthermore, they have one of the most successful running games in the league, and that is, in large part, due to the talent of their two RBs, and how they use them. As someone once said, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." So, IMO, it comes down to money. Will Williams want more money? Sure, he's earned it, and he'll want to cash in.

Could the Panthers give it to him? That depends on how much Williams would want.

Steven Jackson became the highest paid NFL RB when he signed a 5 year, $49.3 million contract extension. Because the last 2 years will likely be voided, it was essentially a 3 year extension (through 2011). However, the key, as with all NFL contracts, is the guaranteed money. There was $21 million in guaranteed money in that contract. Jackson was 25 when he signed that extension, a year younger than Williams.

MJD signed an extension last year, as well. His deal involved $17.5 million in guaranteed money. Jones-Drew is two years younger than Williams.

Williams will be 28 next off-season, when he could become a free agent. His age will prevent (IMO) him from getting a legitimate long-term deal. Any contract would probably be a two, or three year deal. It might look longer on paper, but any later years would likely be able to be voided. The guaranteed money will be the key.

If Jackson could get $21 million, and Jones-Drew could get $17.5, I would expect Williams' agent to hope for between $10-$15 million in guaranteed money.

If the Panthers didn't want to give Williams $15 million in guaranteed money, they could use their franchise tag on him in 2011. In 2010, the franchise tag for RBs commanded an $8.156 million salary, guaranteed. I'm assuming it would be AT LEAST the same in 2011. If Carolina tagged Williams, they get his services for 1 more year. Williams could then become a free agent in 2012, OR Carolina could tag him again. If he becomes a free agent in 2012, (and assuming no significant decrease in production or injury in 2010), I believe he could expect to get contract offers similar to what Chester Taylor ($7 million in guarantees) received. At the very worst, he should expect contract offers similar to what Thomas Jones ($3 million first year, $2 million second year) received.

Even if Williams got franchised in 2011 for $8 million, and then signed a FA contract in 2012 with $5 million guaranteed, he probably wouldn't lose much guaranteed money than if he was able to sign a FA contract in 2011. If Carolina chose to use the franchise tag on him AGAIN in 2012, then (IMO) Williams would actually come out ahead, with regards to guaranteed money.

So these scenarios shouldn't hurt Williams, financially. But would they make sense for Carolina?

The last two times Carolina has "needed" a RB, they chose to obtain one via the draft, rather than free agency. They selected Williams at #27 in 2006, and then Stewart at #13 in 2008. Stewart's deal contained $10.8 million in guaranteed money. In 2010, the Chargers gave Ryan Matthews (the #12 pick) over $15 million in guaranteed money. Obviously no one knows what is going to happen with the NFL and the NFLPA, but going on the status quo, the Panthers would likely have to shell out as much, if not more guaranteed money for a 1st round RB as they would for Williams services if they franchised him.

So (IMO) franchising Williams would make financial sense for Carolina, as they'd likely be giving out less guaranteed money, for more of a guaranteed result.

That's why I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that 2010 is Williams' last year in Carolina.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Stewart is a bad step from IR for the year the way his lower legs are hurt. Has he even made on the field yet this camp? Answer = no.

He's had bone spurs in his ankles since he was drafted. He played through the pain. They were removed over the off-season. Not a huge deal. The kid hasn't missed a game to my knowledge.

 

[cvnpoka]

Stewart is a bad step from IR for the year the way his lower legs are hurt. Has he even made on the field yet this camp? Answer = no.

he hardly saw the field in training camp last year as well. but week 1, he was right there getting series.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I see close to a 50-50 split this year. I also think Stewart is every bit as talented as Williams. Stewart had corrective surgery to alleviate the Achilles problems. Before that, he still played all 16 games in both of his years and put up pretty strong numbers. Not too shabby for a RB who was never 100% healthy. They expect him to be now that he addressed the problem with the surgery.

I also think there will be more times when the Panthers will ride the hot hand.