Win Probability % for Saints if PI had been correctly called (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Talking about the blown PI call in the Saints - Rams game.

The Washington Post laid out how the Saints intended to close the game if the pass interference had been called:

It was a clear pass interference, for any observer with an elementary understanding of football, and if called it would have essentially guaranteed the Saints a trip to the Super Bowl. Coach Sean Payton had already formulated his plan: he would kneel three times, drain the clock, call for a chip-shot field goal and make travel plans for Atlanta.

If the call that everyone agrees should have been made, the Saints were looking at chip shot FG and then kicking off to Los Angeles with a few seconds on the clock. At that point, what do you think the Win Probability % for New Orleans would have been?

Looking for a single number posted here or pick a range in the poll. 

To add - the FG would have essentially been like a pre 2015 extra point attempt where we have a lot of data. The league hit about 99.5% of those.

http://thesportsquotient.com/nfl/2017/3/3/extra-point-changes-horrible-mistake-or-great-way-to-increase

 

[fred_1_15301]

Not a fan of such granular poll choices but I guess I'll vote 95% - 98%.    

 

[Joe Bryant]

Not a fan of such granular poll choices but I guess I'll vote 95% - 98%.    

Thanks Fred. I'm not a fan of creating those either but I was surprised to see folks so hesitant to try and pin down a real number. And of course, it's an estimate. But that's what all of sports predicting is. 

 

[zftcg]

Why are we treating this like it's a subjective opinion? It's easy to look this stuff up. Mind you, I'm too lazy to actually do the looking up, but I believe I saw somewhere that in that scenario it would have been 98%.

 

[Anarchy99]

Given that even AFTER the blown call NOS was still 77% to win, whatever the odds of a botched snap or a missed 20 yard FG attempt. I am guessing 98.5%.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Why are we treating this like it's a subjective opinion? It's easy to look this stuff up. Mind you, I'm too lazy to actually do the looking up, but I believe I saw somewhere that in that scenario it would have been 98%.

Understood. But we all can have an opinion on it. ESPN or whoever does it isn't the final word. 

 

[zftcg]

Why are we treating this like it's a subjective opinion? It's easy to look this stuff up. Mind you, I'm too lazy to actually do the looking up, but I believe I saw somewhere that in that scenario it would have been 98%.

I lied, I'm not too lazy:

Had the refs called defensive pass interference on the 3rd down pass attempt to Tommylee Lewis with 1:45 to play, NO would have been able to kneel the clock down to about 15 seconds with a field goal attempt from around the 10-yard line to essentially win the game. Indoors, that would give them a 98% Win Probability. After the no-call, the Saints' Win Probability was 78%, a difference of 20%.

Brian Burke, ESPN Analytics

/thread

 

[zftcg]

Understood. But we all can have an opinion on it. ESPN or whoever does it isn't the final word. 

I disagree. You can have an opinion on what would have happened ("I think Lutz would have choked on the FG"). But win probability isn't a prediction of what is going to happen. It's a calculation of what is most likely to happen. Historically, teams in the exact same situation as the Saints would have been after a hypothetical DPI call have won 98% of the time.

Think of it this way: If I flip a coin, you can have an opinion as to whether it will come up heads. But you cannot have an opinion regarding the *probability* that it will come up heads. That is, and will always be, 50%.

Not trying to be nitpicky, but I think this is a common mistake people make with mathematical probabilities. It's like the folks who claim Nate Silver got the 2016 election "wrong" because Trump won despite the 538 model giving him a 30% chance.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I disagree. You can have an opinion on what would have happened ("I think Lutz would have choked on the FG"). But win probability isn't a prediction of what is going to happen. It's a calculation of what is most likely to happen. Historically, teams in the exact same situation as the Saints would have been after a hypothetical DPI call have won 98% of the time.

Think of it this way: If I flip a coin, you can have an opinion as to whether it will come up heads. But you cannot have an opinion regarding the *probability* that it will come up heads. That is, and will always be, 50%.

Not trying to be nitpicky, but I think this is a common mistake people make with mathematical probabilities. It's like the folks who claim Nate Silver got the 2016 election "wrong" because Trump won despite the 538 model giving him a 30% chance.

Yes. I understand all that. And don't have time to get into how football is different than a 50-50 heads or tail results with two sides of a coin. I'm looking past the nitpicking and talking about it from the point of discussion on a message board.

 

[Tanner9919]

Talking about the blown PI call in the Saints - Rams game.

The Washington Post laid out how the Saints intended to close the game if the pass interference had been called:

If the call that everyone agrees should have been made, the Saints were looking at chip shot FG and then kicking off to Los Angeles with a few seconds on the clock. At that point, what do you think the Win Probability % for New Orleans would have been?

Looking for a single number posted here or pick a range in the poll. 

To add - the FG would have essentially been like a pre 2015 extra point attempt where we have a lot of data. The league hit about 99.5% of those.

http://thesportsquotient.com/nfl/2017/3/3/extra-point-changes-horrible-mistake-or-great-way-to-increase

IF is the biggest word in the English dictionary and it only has two letters.

IF Norwood didn't miss..IF Pipp didn't call in sick one day,  we might NEVER have heard about Lou Gehrig.IF Drew Bledsoe didn't suffer a sheared blood vessel in his chest following a hard hit from Mo Lewis, we might NEVER have  heard about Tom Brady?! IF Trent Green never blew out his knee, would Kurt Warner still be bagging groceries at the 5-n-dime?? 

cmon now.enough with the woulda coulda shoulda..it's like the Red Sox V., Mets WS 1986..people FORGET that Buckner's blunder happened in game 6..METS STILL NEEDED TO WIN GAME 7.

the Rams STILL needed to score that game winning FG at the end DESPITE the bad call. enoough with the tears, people. just stop..

anything else is just sour grapes and total BS IMO.

the better team won, plain and simple. N.O. was up 13-0 coulda been up like 24-0 by halftime. did they flounder or did the RAMS D play lights out?! hint: the latter is the correct answer here..

'Aints fans now want to enbarrass themselves by scaliping SB tix and rooting for Patriots while wearing N.O. unis..that's the good word on NFLN , anyways..Stay classy 'Aints fans!  can't wait to see this! 

 

[zftcg]

.IF Pipp didn't call in sick one day,  we might NEVER have heard about Lou Gehrig.

Not true. Pipp didn't lose his job because he called in sick; he was basically the Tyrod Taylor to Gehrig's Baker Mayfield (but thank you for allowing me to post my favorite snopes.com article of all time).

it's like the Red Sox V., Mets WS 1986..people FORGET that Buckner's blunder happened in game 6..METS STILL NEEDED TO WIN GAME 7.

Actually, what people forget is that the game was already tied by the time Buckner let the ball go through his legs. It was Schiraldi's wild pitch that blew Boston's lead.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Unless the Saints were planning to put in Joe Pisarcek at QB, that game was over.

 

[JohnnyU]

96.666666%

 

[Insein]

IF is the biggest word in the English dictionary and it only has two letters.

IF Norwood didn't miss..IF Pipp didn't call in sick one day,  we might NEVER have heard about Lou Gehrig.IF Drew Bledsoe didn't suffer a sheared blood vessel in his chest following a hard hit from Mo Lewis, we might NEVER have  heard about Tom Brady?! IF Trent Green never blew out his knee, would Kurt Warner still be bagging groceries at the 5-n-dime?? 

cmon now.enough with the woulda coulda shoulda..it's like the Red Sox V., Mets WS 1986..people FORGET that Buckner's blunder happened in game 6..METS STILL NEEDED TO WIN GAME 7.

the Rams STILL needed to score that game winning FG at the end DESPITE the bad call. enoough with the tears, people. just stop..

anything else is just sour grapes and total BS IMO.

the better team won, plain and simple. N.O. was up 13-0 coulda been up like 24-0 by halftime. did they flounder or did the RAMS D play lights out?! hint: the latter is the correct answer here..

'Aints fans now want to enbarrass themselves by scaliping SB tix and rooting for Patriots while wearing N.O. unis..that's the good word on NFLN , anyways..Stay classy 'Aints fans!  can't wait to see this! 

Spend $5k-10k to go to a game that doesn't have your team out of spite? That'll learn em.

 

[saintfool]

He wouldn't have needed the PI call to bail him out if he hadn't thrown the first pass in the series to Thomas for an incompletion. He should have run the ball and forced the Rams to burn the timeout. Kneel downs to set up a FG. No time outs and 20 seconds on the clock shows confidence in your defense, which had done yeoman's work all game. If the Rams pulled off a minor miracle and scored FG to tie then accept the fate. 

 

[menobrown]

All I know is if the Saints did not benefit from blown PI calls in their game against the Steelers I'd have put their chances of coming out of the NFC around 10% or less.

 

[Doug B]

He wouldn't have needed the PI call to bail him out if he hadn't thrown the first pass in the series to Thomas for an incompletion. He should have run the ball and forced the Rams to burn the timeout. Kneel downs to set up a FG. No time outs and 20 seconds on the clock shows confidence in your defense, which had done yeoman's work all game. If the Rams pulled off a minor miracle and scored FG to tie then accept the fate. 

Rams had two TOS going into that 1st down. If the Saints plowed into the line 3 times and then kicked the FG, the Rams would have had about 1:00 to 1:10 to go 35-40 yards.

 

[DropKick]

97.4593% +/- 0.5146%

 

[fantasycurse42]

Whatever the extra point percentage was this season, I’d say it is around there that they won the game.

I went with 95-98 in this poll.

 

[Anarchy99]

Rams had two TOS going into that 1st down. If the Saints plowed into the line 3 times and then kicked the FG, the Rams would have had about 1:00 to 1:10 to go 35-40 yards.

The Rams called their second timeout before the missed PI play. The Saints would have had the ball with a first down at the five yard line with 1:48 remaining and the Rams only having 1 timeout remaining. I believe the clock would be stopped for the first down play after the penalty. 

The Saints could have run the clock down to close to 20 seconds left before kicking a FG. LA probably would have had about 15 seconds to work with to get into FG range without any timeouts. 

 

[CalBear]

Win probability for the Saints if Whitworth turned his head and intercepted the ball: 0%. Brees threw a terrible ball and the fact that he didn't get bailed out by the refs is on him.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Win probability for the Saints if Whitworth turned his head and intercepted the ball: 0%. Brees threw a terrible ball and the fact that he didn't get bailed out by the refs is on him.

That's not how it works.

 

[CalBear]

That's not how it works.

Nor is second-guessing the ref how it works. The call was made the way it was. If the ball were better-thrown it would have been a lot more likely to get the call. It wasn't, the call wasn't made, the Saints still had plenty of chances in the game, they blew it.

 

[Doug B]

Nor is second-guessing the ref how it works. The call was made the way it was. If the ball were better-thrown it would have been a lot more likely to get the call. It wasn't, the call wasn't made, the Saints still had plenty of chances in the game, they blew it.

The ball was on the money. If Robert-Coleman falls down, Lewis catches the ball easily. But aside from that ... it want a 50-50 handfighting PI. It was a layout. AND a helmet-to-helmet foul.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

96.666666%

The devil is in the details.

 

[Rubi]

He wouldn't have needed the PI call to bail him out if he hadn't thrown the first pass in the series to Thomas for an incompletion. He should have run the ball and forced the Rams to burn the timeout. Kneel downs to set up a FG. No time outs and 20 seconds on the clock shows confidence in your defense, which had done yeoman's work all game. If the Rams pulled off a minor miracle and scored FG to tie then accept the fate. 

As a gentlemen I used to watch late at night often said: "You are correct sir!" Controversial non PI incident never happens if Saints coach doesn't outthink himself.

 

[Doug B]

As a gentlemen I used to watch late at night often said: "You are correct sir!" Controversial non PI incident never happens if Saints coach doesn't outthink himself.

Drew Brees audibled into the 1st-and-10 slant pass to Mike Thomas. Sean Payton originally called a run, but Drew Brees audibled upon seeing 9 in the box. It was a play completed 11 out of 12 times during the regular season. Thomas was open, and had some room to run (maybe 8-10 YAC). Brees simply failed to execute -- he threw the ball almost into the ground.

The Saints needed one more first down to run down a sufficient amount of clock before a final FG attempt, so I can live with Brees' audible. Had the Saints, at that point in the game, just dove into the line three times and then kicked a FG ... the Rams would have had the ball back with over a minute left and no timeouts. More than enough time to gain ~40 yards to get Zeuerlein into position.

...

Anarchy, in your last post above, you are correctly describing the scenario if Robey-Coleman would've been penalized.

 

[Rubi]

Drew Brees audibled into the 1st-and-10 slant pass to Mike Thomas. Sean Payton originally called a run, but Drew Brees audibled upon seeing 9 in the box. It was a play completed 11 out of 12 times during the regular season. Thomas was open, and had some room to run (maybe 8-10 YAC). Brees simply failed to execute -- he threw the ball almost into the ground.

The Saints needed one more first down to run down a sufficient amount of clock before a final FG attempt, so I can live with Brees' audible. Had the Saints, at that point in the game, just dove into the line three times and then kicked a FG ... the Rams would have had the ball back with over a minute left and no timeouts. More than enough time to gain ~40 yards to get Zeuerlein into position.

...

Anarchy, in your last post above, you are correctly describing the scenario if Robey-Coleman would've been penalized.

The slant worked 11 of 12 times during the regular season. Then it's Drews fault. The first down run causing the Rams to use a timeout would have worked 1 out of 1 time in the playoffs.

Any of THREE running plays could have gotten a first down,or more. How many times during the regular season did a Saints RB turn contact at the line into a chunk play? I'll take up by 3 with less than a minute and no Ram timeouts to what thee gave Saints gave them. Brees is a terrific QB,but if he audibled into a pass then made a poor throw,it's on him,sorry Sean I apologize.

 

[Doug B]

Any of THREE running plays could have gotten a first down,or more. How many times during the regular season did a Saints RB turn contact at the line into a chunk play?

The chunk rushing plays are eliminated if a pass is taken off the table, though. That's why the Rams went nine in the box. Best case would've been three dives for a yard or so each. Sweeps get run down too easily with that many in the box.

 

[zftcg]

The slant worked 11 of 12 times during the regular season. Then it's Drews fault. The first down run causing the Rams to use a timeout would have worked 1 out of 1 time in the playoffs.

Any of THREE running plays could have gotten a first down,or more. How many times during the regular season did a Saints RB turn contact at the line into a chunk play? I'll take up by 3 with less than a minute and no Ram timeouts to what thee gave Saints gave them. Brees is a terrific QB,but if he audibled into a pass then made a poor throw,it's on him,sorry Sean I apologize.

I mean, Drew Brees is a Hall of Fame QB. That doesn't mean he never makes mistakes, but I'm inclined to cut him a fair amount of slack in terms of judging when it's appropriate to audible into a different play.

Something else to keep in mind: As long as the Saints weren't going to be able to run the clock all the way (or at least almost all the way) down, they shouldn't have been focusing exclusively on a FG in that situation. If they get a TD, their win probability goes up dramatically. (By contrast, if they had gotten the DPI call, by that point in the game it would have clearly been the right move to play for the FG.) Don't know the exact numbers, but it's got to be more advantageous to be up 7 with 1:30 left than up 3 with 1:00.

Brees messed up the pass, which is absolutely on him. But I can't automatically fault the decision to audible to that play.

 

[iamkoza]

i think 95% is fair. short kick, but some kickers choke under pressure (blair, cody).

plus the rams would have had a few second left so who knows if another miami situation coulda happened.

would the saints have kneeled down to bleed clock or would they have run the ball and perhaps the rams let them score? a lot of unknowns

 

[Short Corner]

the Rams would have had the ball back with over a minute left and no timeouts. More than enough time to gain ~40 yards to get Zeuerlein into position.

Maybe.  But as it it turned out the TO in their pocket forced NOS to defend the entire field and relieved some of the pressure on LAR to play close to perfect.  They ultimately kicked the FG with 27 seconds.  

 

[Short Corner]

Brees messed up the pass, which is absolutely on him. But I can't automatically fault the decision to audible to that play.

Why didn't you defend Payton then when he got called out for the decision in the dumb coaches thread?

 

[zftcg]

Why didn't you defend Payton then when he got called out for the decision in the dumb coaches thread?

Am I obligated to rush to his defense whenever he's unfairly maligned? Is it like a copyright, where if you don't defend it the first time it's infringed you lose your ability to do so later?

Anyway, the short answer is I didn't know the whole story. I had heard something about an audible, but thought it was on the third down call. I didn't realize until I read @Doug B's account that it was on first.

 

[Short Corner]

Am I obligated to rush to his defense whenever he's unfairly maligned? Is it like a copyright, where if you don't defend it the first time it's infringed you lose your ability to do so later?

Anyway, the short answer is I didn't know the whole story. I had heard something about an audible, but thought it was on the third down call. I didn't realize until I read @Doug B's account that it was on first.

You're not obligated at all, however, you are very active in that thread and call people out more than anyone else.  Just find it odd that people are quick to blame Payton when they thin k the decision to pass was on him but Brees gets the benefit of the doubt for making the same decision.

 

[Short Corner]

FWIW pro-football-reference has them at slightly over 75%.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&score_differential=0&vegas_line=3&quarter=4&seconds=25&field=opp&yds_from_goal=10&down=4&yds_to_go=10

 

[zftcg]

You're not obligated at all, however, you are very active in that thread and call people out more than anyone else.  Just find it odd that people are quick to blame Payton when they thin k the decision to pass was on him but Brees gets the benefit of the doubt for making the same decision.

I'll be honest; I sometimes forget which thread I'm posting in. I hadn't weighed in on that issue because I didn't know all the details, so what I posted here was basically what I would have posted in the other thread.

Anyway, if you read my posts (which you apparently do; hey, I have a rep!) you'll see I'm pretty consistent on not criticizing specific play calls, particularly run vs. pass. I'm sure I've done it (and I'm also sure teams have made some epically dumb calls that deserved to be called out) but in general, I think there's a lot that goes into those decisions that we don't know, so it's hard to say they're "obviously stupid". By contrast, decisions like going for it on 4th down or attempting a two-point conversion tend to be more self-contained.

 

[Doug B]

You're not obligated at all, however, you are very active in that thread and call people out more than anyone else.  Just find it odd that people are quick to blame Payton when they thin k the decision to pass was on him but Brees gets the benefit of the doubt for making the same decision.

Nah ... there's even a very recent thread here, started by Joe Bryant, about Payton haters. Payton being a lightning rod is not odd at all.

 

[Short Corner]

I'll be honest; I sometimes forget which thread I'm posting in. I hadn't weighed in on that issue because I didn't know all the details, so what I posted here was basically what I would have posted in the other thread.

Anyway, if you read my posts (which you apparently do; hey, I have a rep!) you'll see I'm pretty consistent on not criticizing specific play calls, particularly run vs. pass. I'm sure I've done it (and I'm also sure teams have made some epically dumb calls that deserved to be called out) but in general, I think there's a lot that goes into those decisions that we don't know, so it's hard to say they're "obviously stupid". By contrast, decisions like going for it on 4th down or attempting a two-point conversion tend to be more self-contained.

Agree there are more variables that go into those decisions than people take into consideration.  This particular situation though (ie down and distance, score, field position, TO's) gets simplified because of the clock.  According to PFR's calculator, the win-probability of running it into the line 3x is slightly lower than if the get the PI call (74.33% vs 75.68%).  On the other hand, passing like they did dropped it to 58.55%. 

 

[BassNBrew]

All I know is if the Saints did not benefit from blown PI calls in their game against the Steelers I'd have put their chances of coming out of the NFC around 10% or less.

Don’t forget the first game against Carolina which the refs gifted to them. Probably would have loss in Chicago the week prior if the refs have been decent all year

 

[zftcg]

Agree there are more variables that go into those decisions than people take into consideration.  This particular situation though (ie down and distance, score, field position, TO's) gets simplified because of the clock.  According to PFR's calculator, the win-probability of running it into the line 3x is slightly lower than if the get the PI call (74.33% vs 75.68%).  On the other hand, passing like they did dropped it to 58.55%. 

I assume you mean it was 58% after the incomplete pass? Of course, that ignores the possibility of it being complete (which, according to what Doug B posted above, it was on 11 of 12 attempts this year). I doubt Brees was calculating WP% in the huddle, but I'm pretty confident he knew how well that play had worked for him all season, and that was why he audibled to it when he saw 9 men in the box.

Anyway, this discussion really does belong in the other thread. Happy to continue it there if you want.

 

[menobrown]

Don’t forget the first game against Carolina which the refs gifted to them. Probably would have loss in Chicago the week prior if the refs have been decent all year

I did forget about that call but that just goes along with point I wanted to make which I think you totally are getting.

I hate the Saints were subject to a bad call last week, I really do. But these things have a way of evening out over time and I just don't think the angry Saints fans are taking that into consideration, taking into consideration that in my opinion they'd not have been in that position in the first place this past Sunday if some bad calls had not gone their way earlier in the regular season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

As others have pointed out, it's never all about one play. Correct earlier calls by both QB and coach diffuse the chances of getting screwed at the end.

 

[DallasDMac]

I still don't understand why people keep saying the Saints wouldn't have needed to be "bailed out." Making the proper, obvious call isn't bailing anyone out. It's simply making the proper call.

 

[matuski]

Whatever the % is for making a field goal from 11 yards.

 

[matuski]

As others have pointed out, it's never all about one play. Correct earlier calls by both QB and coach diffuse the chances of getting screwed at the end.

The cumulative calls and plays by the players, coaches, refs led to the reality at that point in the game.

The reality, as it stood, is that the game was decided by that one play.