WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (4 Viewers)

[Bracie Smathers]

Ricky making his call.

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Rickey (retired)
https://x.com/prettyrickey213
@prettyrickey213

He's going to be a Steeler. To the people calling me a fraud, it's going to make it that much sweeter when I'm right. #TrustRickey

If you don't follow him, he's been SUPER early and uncannily accurate on some things.

There is a Pittsburgh reporter who speculates that SF leaking that CLE and NE have deals in place is a way to lean on Pittsburgh to up their offer.

If this decision comes down to a contract for Aiyuk the Pats are in a great position to overwhelm him…if they could add him to Polk-Baker-Pop that is a complete game-changer for this offense and allows them to concentrate on O-line next offseason.

What would a Patriots trade package look like?

I saw the Kendrick Bourne thing, but that was thrown around by Twitter randos.

Maybe the price is next year's #1, and Polk. or Baker.

I heard Judon was also included. I guess he has been an issue with the staff and had a blow-up with Mayo.
LINK
They have a youngster waiting in the wings making it addition by subtraction to include him.

Hope there is some kind of resolution here. Keep and sign. Trade and extend. Something.
Feels like some posters continually said there is no chance of him leaving the 49ers and there seems to be a lot of smoke here. Anyone that was very stuck on him not going anywhere care to see if their opinion has wavered now?

This has always been about Brock Purdy getting paid and Tyreek Hill's contract with the 'expected' enormous bump that Aiyuk will get. He has been doing a 'soft' hold-out over the summer with fathom injuries and it has come to a crossroads.
He is gone in SF, they can't do a new enormous contract with Purdy and give Aiyuk what he is demanding. He's shown he'll hold out so forcing him to stay and franchise tagging him as an extremely talented 3rd WR in that offense doesn't work.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Cleveland OTOH would probably give up a 1st if they were just using draft capital, but if they are putting Amari Cooper in a deal as has been speculated here, then I would think they wouldn't also be sending a 1st, it would just be player for player and maybe some lower (say 5-7th rounds) picks.

Mary Kay Cabot suggested it would be Cooper and a 2nd + 4th.

Makes sense. A 2nd is too rich for my blood, but Cleveland is known to make bad decisions.

 

[Anarchy99]

I heard Judon was also included. I guess he has been an issue with the staff and had a blow-up with Mayo they have a youngster waiting in the wings making it addition by subtraction to include him.

The Patriots spent like drunken sailors to re-sign or extend a ton of players this offseason but have yet to budge on Judon, who is 1) on the last year of his contract, 2) coming back from a season-ending injury, 3) will turn 32 next week, and 4) is only set to make $6.5 million this year. They don't really have a youngster in waiting . . . they have some young guys that would take his spot with the hopes that they might turn into something. But there is no clear superstar in waiting that I am aware of. The issue if they trade him is he will certainly want an extension and more money, so his new team must be willing to shell over a lot of new money for a 32-year-old coming off an injury that may not have much left in the tank.

 

[Lansdowne]

Ricky making his call.

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Rickey (retired)
https://x.com/prettyrickey213
@prettyrickey213

He's going to be a Steeler. To the people calling me a fraud, it's going to make it that much sweeter when I'm right. #TrustRickey

If you don't follow him, he's been SUPER early and uncannily accurate on some things.

He’s not uncannily accurate. He allegedly throws spaghetti against the wall, and when 1 noodle sticks he deletes the 20 noodles that didn’t.

At least according to the more seasoned veteran reporters who’ve called him out for it.

Though he is oddly adamant about the Steelers.

Then again, he also has said the deal was done yesterday, then reportedly deleted those tweets when it wasn’t.

There are lots of make-pretend reporters on Twitter who do this exact thing. It’s annoying.

 

[JohnnyU]

If this decision comes down to a contract for Aiyuk the Pats are in a great position to overwhelm him…if they could add him to Polk-Baker-Pop that is a complete game-changer for this offense and allows them to concentrate on O-line next offseason.

What would a Patriots trade package look like?

I saw the Kendrick Bourne thing, but that was thrown around by Twitter randos.

Maybe the price is next year's #1, and Polk. or Baker.

The 1st rounder is a complete non-starter…that would be a deal that could set the franchise back…it has a chance to be the #1 pick and I would be absolutely shocked if it is not top 10…dealing that and giving Aiyuk a monster deal makes no sense for where this franchise currently is.

Gotta believe their #2 would be involved as far as picks are concerned…Judon would be a nice addition and help San Fran short-term but at his age and him looking for $ not sure if he appeals to them…as far as young players go Baker, Pop and Polk would probably be appealing but with San Fran in win-now mode and already having drafted Pearsall not sure how much they would value them…if I was San Fran some players I would be asking about are Keon White as well as one of their young CBs like Gonzalez, Marcus Jones and Alex Austin…not sure if the Pats would deal White or Gonzalez but those are the two I would be targeting if I was San Fran…something in the ballpark of White, Polk, and their #2 (or at least two of those assets and something else thrown in) would be a really nice haul for San Fran and quite honestly I would rather the Pats not do if they believe Polk is legit.

I was going to post the same thing. Market value for a #1 WR would probably be a mid 1st (see, AJ Brown trade).

I don't think NE would deal their 1st which they must assume will be a top 10. It would probably be a 2nd rounder plus something.

Cleveland OTOH would probably give up a 1st if they were just using draft capital, but if they are putting Amari Cooper in a deal as has been speculated here, then I would think they wouldn't also be sending a 1st, it would just be player for player and maybe some lower (say 5-7th rounds) picks.

It hurts Aiyuk’s fantasy value in either Cleveland or NE IMO. I’d much rather have SF QB and offense over those two.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

Rose colored glasses take- in NE, he's trading efficiency for volume. The OLine is half a wreck and nobody knows whether or not the system and coaches will be able to generate offense. But Aiyuk might clear 170 targets in NE.

NE is a 2-win team without Aiyuk and a 3-win team with him. They will be run heavy to try to keep games within reach and to not completely wear out the defense. The Pats will be lucky to crack 3,000 passing yards and will have to pray to keep whoever lines up under center from ending up in intensive care. Maye is nowhere close to ready to see live snaps. The OL is a total mess (two guys went on IR this week and another may miss half the season or more), the WRs have little to no experience, yet somehow the WR group has more experience than the coaching staff. The Pats have spent nearly $400 million to bring back the same guys from last year's team that many people said was completely lacking in talent. And for those that think the defense will be a top tier defense, when BB moved on from the Giants, the same defense gave up 86 more points the following year. When BB left CLE, the Ravens allowed 85 more points the following year. IMO, this coaching staff is trying to cobble together a team that will hopefully have some foundational pieces for their replacements in a few years. I expected the 2024 Pats to be a train wreck.

Three different subjects:

1. Depressing take on all things Patriots. Check.

2. Aiyuk's usefulness to the NEP. Specifically as it relates to the biggest bet the franchise has going right now: developing Maye. Yes. Aiyuk is a dominant man and press beating outside receiver. The second hardest role to fill. If Maye hits, the overlap of the rookie contract and Aiyuk's prime should work well (again, assuming Maye actually works out which I understand is not a given).

3. Aiyuk's fantasy football scoring. For redraft, downgrade but for sure, everyone remembers that Brissett fed Amari Cooper pretty well in 2022. FWIW, I believe Brissett will or should be starting all or most of the year. That team had a better OLine but the same OC as we have right now. In the long run, if anything better than the worst case scenario happen with the OL, Maye's development, the coaching staff's competence, Aiyuk has a chance to actually be a fantasy football beast.

 

[massraider]

With the new Amari deal, it makes no sense to trade him

 

[need2know]

If this decision comes down to a contract for Aiyuk the Pats are in a great position to overwhelm him…if they could add him to Polk-Baker-Pop that is a complete game-changer for this offense and allows them to concentrate on O-line next offseason.

What would a Patriots trade package look like?

I saw the Kendrick Bourne thing, but that was thrown around by Twitter randos.

Maybe the price is next year's #1, and Polk. or Baker.

The 1st rounder is a complete non-starter…that would be a deal that could set the franchise back…it has a chance to be the #1 pick and I would be absolutely shocked if it is not top 10…dealing that and giving Aiyuk a monster deal makes no sense for where this franchise currently is.

Gotta believe their #2 would be involved as far as picks are concerned…Judon would be a nice addition and help San Fran short-term but at his age and him looking for $ not sure if he appeals to them…as far as young players go Baker, Pop and Polk would probably be appealing but with San Fran in win-now mode and already having drafted Pearsall not sure how much they would value them…if I was San Fran some players I would be asking about are Keon White as well as one of their young CBs like Gonzalez, Marcus Jones and Alex Austin…not sure if the Pats would deal White or Gonzalez but those are the two I would be targeting if I was San Fran…something in the ballpark of White, Polk, and their #2 (or at least two of those assets and something else thrown in) would be a really nice haul for San Fran and quite honestly I would rather the Pats not do if they believe Polk is legit.

I was going to post the same thing. Market value for a #1 WR would probably be a mid 1st (see, AJ Brown trade).

I don't think NE would deal their 1st which they must assume will be a top 10. It would probably be a 2nd rounder plus something.

Cleveland OTOH would probably give up a 1st if they were just using draft capital, but if they are putting Amari Cooper in a deal as has been speculated here, then I would think they wouldn't also be sending a 1st, it would just be player for player and maybe some lower (say 5-7th rounds) picks.

It hurts Aiyuk’s fantasy value in either Cleveland or NE IMO. I’d much rather have SF QB and offense over those two.

i agree. hes going to hate it in either place. but hey hes gonna get paid

 

[FarFromHome]

With the new Amari deal, it makes no sense to trade him

Agreed 100. If the Niners could turn this debacle into a cheaper Amari cooper that would be the golden ticket. Imo

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

With the new Amari deal, it makes no sense to trade him

I dunno - paying Cooper $20M to play for the 49ers while also paying Aiyuk $30M a year sounds like a very Browns-like thing to do.

 

[Deamon]

I wonder what Purdy wants to happen? He surely knows his big extension is tied to this Ayiuk situation.

 

[massraider]

With the new Amari deal, it makes no sense to trade him

I dunno - paying Cooper $20M to play for the 49ers while also paying Aiyuk $30M a year sounds like a very Browns-like thing to do.

Honestly, that's the only reason I almost didn't mention it

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I wonder what Purdy wants to happen? He surely knows his big extension is tied to this Ayiuk situation.

I would want him to stay to help win this year. After that who knows.

 

[Lansdowne]

I wonder what Purdy wants to happen? He surely knows his big extension is tied to this Ayiuk situation.

I think Purdy knows he’s going to get the bag either way unless he completely face-plants this season or has a career-altering injury. As long as he’s healthy and performs up to expectations I don’t think he has much to worry about money wise, part of why the 49ers are being careful is because they’re saving their pennies for him long term. Retaining Aiyuk would be the easiest path to success but I think it’ll be fine either way.

 

[Anarchy99]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

Rose colored glasses take- in NE, he's trading efficiency for volume. The OLine is half a wreck and nobody knows whether or not the system and coaches will be able to generate offense. But Aiyuk might clear 170 targets in NE.

NE is a 2-win team without Aiyuk and a 3-win team with him. They will be run heavy to try to keep games within reach and to not completely wear out the defense. The Pats will be lucky to crack 3,000 passing yards and will have to pray to keep whoever lines up under center from ending up in intensive care. Maye is nowhere close to ready to see live snaps. The OL is a total mess (two guys went on IR this week and another may miss half the season or more), the WRs have little to no experience, yet somehow the WR group has more experience than the coaching staff. The Pats have spent nearly $400 million to bring back the same guys from last year's team that many people said was completely lacking in talent. And for those that think the defense will be a top tier defense, when BB moved on from the Giants, the same defense gave up 86 more points the following year. When BB left CLE, the Ravens allowed 85 more points the following year. IMO, this coaching staff is trying to cobble together a team that will hopefully have some foundational pieces for their replacements in a few years. I expected the 2024 Pats to be a train wreck.

Three different subjects:

1. Depressing take on all things Patriots. Check.

2. Aiyuk's usefulness to the NEP. Specifically as it relates to the biggest bet the franchise has going right now: developing Maye. Yes. Aiyuk is a dominant man and press beating outside receiver. The second hardest role to fill. If Maye hits, the overlap of the rookie contract and Aiyuk's prime should work well (again, assuming Maye actually works out which I understand is not a given).

3. Aiyuk's fantasy football scoring. For redraft, downgrade but for sure, everyone remembers that Brissett fed Amari Cooper pretty well in 2022. FWIW, I believe Brissett will or should be starting all or most of the year. That team had a better OLine but the same OC as we have right now. In the long run, if anything better than the worst case scenario happen with the OL, Maye's development, the coaching staff's competence, Aiyuk has a chance to actually be a fantasy football beast.

2) RE: Maye - Not sure I want to waste posting on Maye in an Aiyuk thread, but Maye is a long way from being able to play. I have heard from people that have been to practice. The coaches are having to teach him things Pop Warner kids get taught . . . footwork and positioning, getting plays called and players in and out, running something before the clock runs out, etc.. The few times he appears to have done well so far have been very controlled environments. No pass rush. The same vanilla defensive play call over and over again. Even then he's looked like the project he is. I have heard internally the NE brass had hoped he would have been way more advanced than he has been so far. They wanted him to be able to compete to start for Week 1. Beat guys have said Mac Jones looked 10X better his first camp. Who knows what Maye will turn into (if anything), but that time does not appear to be now. That's ignoring the obvious . . . that he has no experience in identifying defensive schemes, how to audible, who's blitzing, etc. I do not believe they have gotten that far with him yet.

2) RE: Aiyuk - Look at the pieces around Aiyuk in SF: masterclass offensive coach, an actual QB and system, and many other offensive weapons. Defenses have to worry about Samuel, Kittles, CMC, and schemes drawn up for other receivers. The Pats have none of that. Would Aiyuk be an upgrade over what the Pats have rostered currently . . . on the surface, yes, but they will have to send out premium picks and / or players to acquire him in addition to paying him $30ish million. Not knowing what the trade would actually be, not sure that's a great option, given that Aiyuk might get 800 receiving yards. He'd see the best cover guy on every team, and I suspect the offense will struggle to run many passing routes that take more than 2 seconds to get the ball out. If Maye starts at some point this season (which at this point is a legit question), defenses most likely will blitz until NE can stop it (which for now I would say will be a major concern).

3) Even though NE has the same OC from CLE, he wasn't the one calling plays. IMO, the entire coaching staff will be going through on the job training. Everything about the Browns offense was better and more advanced than the Pats. There are literally about 50 IF'S that have to work out in New England's favor for them to field an effective offense. Too many to list off. As I have mentioned in other threads, the chances of them hitting on more than 2-3 draft picks in a single draft class are really unlikely. Sure, I suppose it could happen, but that hasn't happened in NE in decades.

IMO, the Pats are hoping to have made some progress to be more competitive in 2026. I would be very surprised if they didn't have a Top 5 draft pick this year and next. By then, they will either have figured some things out or moved on to another coaching staff (which could happen even if they look a little better). They went all in with Maye, and for their sake they better hope he is more like Josh Allen than Lance or Wilson.

 

[Wingnut]

The more I read, the more I think he stays in SF.

 

[Banger]

The more I read, the more I think he stays in SF.

It's tough for any team to pay him the top $'s that he wants AND give the compensation the 49ers want. He's a good WR in a perfect situation but he's not elite. Also, SF is in their window and he's an important part of their offense and it's not like they need to move him for cap reasons. Moving Aiyuk would likely only help Aiyuk.

 

[Anarchy99]

The more I read, the more I think he stays in SF.

It's tough for any team to pay him the top $'s that he wants AND give the compensation the 49ers want. He's a good WR in a perfect situation but he's not elite. Also, SF is in their window and he's an important part of their offense and it's not like they need to move him for cap reasons. Moving Aiyuk would likely only help Aiyuk.

This really didn't need to be that difficult. Give him some easy to earn incentives that will boost his pay for this year. If Aiyuk really wants to play hardball, then write in that they won't franchise him next year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The more I read, the more I think he stays in SF.

I been sayin

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The more I read, the more I think he stays in SF.

It's tough for any team to pay him the top $'s that he wants AND give the compensation the 49ers want. He's a good WR in a perfect situation but he's not elite. Also, SF is in their window and he's an important part of their offense and it's not like they need to move him for cap reasons. Moving Aiyuk would likely only help Aiyuk.

This really didn't need to be that difficult. Give him some easy to earn incentives that will boost his pay for this year. If Aiyuk really wants to play hardball, then write in that they won't franchise him next year.

They tried to give him a $12M raise from the $14M tag number.

And 3 more years as well.

Aiyuk turned that down.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Is Aiyuk’s agent a real agent, or like a brother in law or something?

Because I can think of very few more ham-fisted ways to have handled this, from the me-first petulant social media stuff (starting immediately after the SB loss) to the trade demands.

Just a train wreck of negotiation.

And the really amazing part is that he was in the doghouse to start his career with the 49ers for maturity concerns. This does nothing but prove that point.

Bizarre stuff.

 

[Anarchy99]

The more I read, the more I think he stays in SF.

It's tough for any team to pay him the top $'s that he wants AND give the compensation the 49ers want. He's a good WR in a perfect situation but he's not elite. Also, SF is in their window and he's an important part of their offense and it's not like they need to move him for cap reasons. Moving Aiyuk would likely only help Aiyuk.

This really didn't need to be that difficult. Give him some easy to earn incentives that will boost his pay for this year. If Aiyuk really wants to play hardball, then write in that they won't franchise him next year.

They tried to give him a $12M raise from the $14M tag number.

And 3 more years as well.

Aiyuk turned that down.

The extra years for below market is why he turned that down. What I suggested would get him more money this season and potentially would get him out of SFO without getting tagged (if that's what he wants). The Niners could play hardball and say we aren't trading you, so we can make you play on your current deal . . . or you could agree to make extra to play this year with some incentives.

 

[msudaisy26]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

I wouldn't drop him at all. I might move him up.

 

[Jail]

Is Aiyuk’s agent a real agent, or like a brother in law or something?

Because I can think of very few more ham-fisted ways to have handled this, from the me-first petulant social media stuff (starting immediately after the SB loss) to the trade demands.

Just a train wreck of negotiation.

And the really amazing part is that he was in the doghouse to start his career with the 49ers for maturity concerns. This does nothing but prove that point.

Bizarre stuff.

I agree that he could have handled this better, but SF clearly misread the market. He was asking for 28 and they would only do 26. Then all these other guys signed mega deals and made 28 too low.

 

[Anarchy99]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

I wouldn't drop him at all. I might move him up.

Why? What about the NE offense leads you to believe that Aiyuk would thrive in NE this year? I explained above why I would argue the complete opposite.

 

[jm192]

The more I read, the more I think he stays in SF.

It's tough for any team to pay him the top $'s that he wants AND give the compensation the 49ers want. He's a good WR in a perfect situation but he's not elite. Also, SF is in their window and he's an important part of their offense and it's not like they need to move him for cap reasons. Moving Aiyuk would likely only help Aiyuk.

Agree with all of this. It seems like he wants to be paid like an elite guy, and he's just not that. He's extremly good, and he flourishes in the SF offense. But I wouldn't want to be paying him like an elite WR.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I agree that he could have handled this better, but SF clearly misread the market. He was asking for 28 and they would only do 26. Then all these other guys signed mega deals and made 28 too low.

That’s what we’ve heard. We actually don’t know if that’s accurate, or how much would have been guaranteed.

We have a bad habit (myself included) of regurgitating guys like Maioco & treating it as gospel.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Agree with all of this. It seems like he wants to be paid like an elite guy, and he's just not that. He's extremly good, and he flourishes in the SF offense. But I wouldn't want to be paying him like an elite WR.

I think SF questions that as well.

And as I’d posted above, his numbers point to 2023 being the outlier season.

If he regresses back to ~78/1000 he’s simply not worthy of ARSB or JJ $.

 

[msudaisy26]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

I wouldn't drop him at all. I might move him up.

Why? What about the NE offense leads you to believe that Aiyuk would thrive in NE this year? I explained above why I would argue the complete opposite.

He had 75 for 1342 yards and 7 touchdowns. On like 105 targets.

I could easily see him getting 160 targets catching 100 passes for 1400 yards and 5 to 8 touchdowns. Barring injury his floor is probably 80 catches for 1100 and 5. That is basically what he did last year. Plus he is going to get an extra game since he didn't play week 18.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

BSJ article up now is indicating that SF's trade demands have been met by both CLE and NE and that it's up to BA. If this is the case, NE is going to throw 30m at him and get it done.

 

[jm192]

Agree with all of this. It seems like he wants to be paid like an elite guy, and he's just not that. He's extremly good, and he flourishes in the SF offense. But I wouldn't want to be paying him like an elite WR.

I think SF questions that as well.

And as I’d posted above, his numbers point to 2023 being the outlier season.

If he regresses back to ~78/1000 he’s simply not worthy of ARSB or JJ $.

I agree with that 1000%.

I'm largely of the belief that in SF, he's giving you 75 for 1100. And that's "ok." But I don't think that's what the FF community is expecting out of him.
I just don't think the volume is there, and the efficiency is going to return to the mean.

 

[Anarchy99]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

I wouldn't drop him at all. I might move him up.

Why? What about the NE offense leads you to believe that Aiyuk would thrive in NE this year? I explained above why I would argue the complete opposite.

He had 75 for 1342 yards and 7 touchdowns. On like 105 targets.

I could easily see him getting 160 targets catching 100 passes for 1400 yards and 5 to 8 touchdowns. Barring injury his floor is probably 80 catches for 1100 and 5. That is basically what he did last year.

The Patriots offense, QB situation, OL, weapons, experience level, and coaching staff are not in the same universe as the 49ers. Not to mention that he will draw the best coverage defender if not double teams every game. Not all situations are the same. NE had 31% fewer yards and scored 52% fewer points than the Niners did last year . . . and it's very possible the Pats offense could be worse this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just don't think the volume is there, and the efficiency is going to return to the mean.

I’ll also add that I believe that will be the case wherever he plays.

 

[thecatch]

Is Aiyuk’s agent a real agent, or like a brother in law or something?

Because I can think of very few more ham-fisted ways to have handled this, from the me-first petulant social media stuff (starting immediately after the SB loss) to the trade demands.

Just a train wreck of negotiation.

And the really amazing part is that he was in the doghouse to start his career with the 49ers for maturity concerns. This does nothing but prove that point.

Bizarre stuff.

He’s got a real agent who is very good friends with John Lynch. Kawakami speculated that this friendship might have caused Lynch to recuse himself, which would mean Paraag and York would have been running the negotiations. Which could be another reason why this has turned into a fiasco.

 

[jm192]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

I wouldn't drop him at all. I might move him up.

Why? What about the NE offense leads you to believe that Aiyuk would thrive in NE this year? I explained above why I would argue the complete opposite.

He had 75 for 1342 yards and 7 touchdowns. On like 105 targets.

I could easily see him getting 160 targets catching 100 passes for 1400 yards and 5 to 8 touchdowns. Barring injury his floor is probably 80 catches for 1100 and 5. That is basically what he did last year. Plus he is going to get an extra game since he didn't play week 18.

I don't see Aiyuk as a guy that gets 10 targets a game yearly. I envision DJ Moore in Carolina. DJ hit 160 once. He had poor QB play pretty much his entire time in Carolina. He had a couple seasons of 118. A 135 and a 163.

I think he'd be closer to that 120/135 range. Target quality has to go down unless Maye is a superstar right away. He caught 71% in SF. I would think that falls quite a bit in NE.

I don't think he's catching 100 balls, but IF he's catching 100 balls, I have to think his ADOT and yards per reception go down a fair bit.

You said 80 for 1100 and 5 is his floor. I think that's probably closer to the ceiling on the Pats with the QB situation.

At 135 targets with a 62.5% catch percentage, and 13.5 yards per reception, it would come out to:

84 receptions
1134 yards
5-6 TD's

I honestly think on the Pats, that would be a really nice year for him.

 

[msudaisy26]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

I wouldn't drop him at all. I might move him up.

Why? What about the NE offense leads you to believe that Aiyuk would thrive in NE this year? I explained above why I would argue the complete opposite.

He had 75 for 1342 yards and 7 touchdowns. On like 105 targets.

I could easily see him getting 160 targets catching 100 passes for 1400 yards and 5 to 8 touchdowns. Barring injury his floor is probably 80 catches for 1100 and 5. That is basically what he did last year.

The Patriots offense, QB situation, OL, weapons, experience level, and coaching staff are not in the same universe as the 49ers. Not to mention that he will draw the best coverage defender if not double teams every game. Not all situations are the same. NE had 31% fewer yards and scored 52% fewer points than the Niners did last year . . . and it's very possible the Pats offense could be worse this year.

Okay they also have less weapons. Look at Josh Gordon years ago, Steve Smith with Jake Delhomme, OBJ with Eli, Brandon Marshall a couple times, Mushim Muhammad.

 

[massraider]

That’s what we’ve heard. We actually don’t know if that’s accurate, or how much would have been guaranteed.

Exactly. And the years, how soon to the next contract, etc.Maybe a 5th year is the sticking point. Fighting for a shorter contract is better than a few extra millions per year. We saw that with QB contracts.

If what we are being told from multiple legit sources, is true, and Aiyuk's people are now allowed to talk to CLE and NE, we will find out how unrealisitic Aiyuk's demands actually are.

He will have to make some concessions, you have to think, in order to get the money now.

 

[massraider]

Personally, I think the Patriots are exactly the kind of team that should be slightly overpaying for a young stud. The one they DO have was just diagnosed with blood clots.

 

[msudaisy26]

I forgot about Allen Robinson twice with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trunisky.

 

[jm192]

certainly premature but if he goes to NE how much does he drop in the rankings?

I wouldn't drop him at all. I might move him up.

Why? What about the NE offense leads you to believe that Aiyuk would thrive in NE this year? I explained above why I would argue the complete opposite.

He had 75 for 1342 yards and 7 touchdowns. On like 105 targets.

I could easily see him getting 160 targets catching 100 passes for 1400 yards and 5 to 8 touchdowns. Barring injury his floor is probably 80 catches for 1100 and 5. That is basically what he did last year.

The Patriots offense, QB situation, OL, weapons, experience level, and coaching staff are not in the same universe as the 49ers. Not to mention that he will draw the best coverage defender if not double teams every game. Not all situations are the same. NE had 31% fewer yards and scored 52% fewer points than the Niners did last year . . . and it's very possible the Pats offense could be worse this year.

Okay they also have less weapons. Look at Josh Gordon years ago, Steve Smith with Jake Delhomme, OBJ with Eli, Brandon Marshall a couple times, Mushim Muhammad.

You're cherry picking the best cases.

I posted above: Look at DJ Moore in Carolina. I don't know that I view Aiyuk as being on the same level as Smith, OBJ or Marhsall or even Gordon talent wise.

Muhammad had that ONE outlier season. If you're saying that you think Aiyuk having 100 for 1400 and 8 TD's would be an outlier there--I certainly agree with that.

 

[jm192]

I forgot about Allen Robinson twice with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trunisky.

Now do Terry McLaurin

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

doubt he gets traded to the Pats because I don’t think he’d want to play in New England. But I’ve been wrong many times before.

I’m starting to believe he’ll go to whatever team pays him $30M

And I hope it’s the Pats, and his stats take a nosedive and he hates the freezing weather because he’s a greedy selfish tool.

That may be the Niner fan bitterness talking.

Funny, I was just thinking that the Niners are likely going to regret treating him like a little *****.

CMC is due for another season ending IR, he had what, 2 of them after his monster year at Carolina? Deebo is due to miss half the season again, seems he can never stay healthy for too long. The clock strikes midnight on Purdy's magical run. Rams win the division the next 3 years. Shanahan leaves in disgrace, never sniffing his first ring ever again.

 

[msudaisy26]

I forgot about Allen Robinson twice with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trunisky.

Now do Terry McLaurin

You do it. I am making the case for him. I said I might move him up. I haven't made a decision yet because the deal isn't done.

Aiyuk is a way better receiver THAN Mclaurin. Hope that helps.

It is crazy I cherry picked all those seasons in like 10 minutes. As if there isn't more.

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

and Aiyuk is better than Cooper

I’m not positive that’s true. Cooper is an exceptional WR and has been for a long time.

Aiyuk had a 1000+ season on 78 receptions, then a 1300+ yard season on 75 receptions. All on a team with the best RB in the NFL in CMC, and one of the best weapons in the NFL in Deebo.

In his sophomore season he was actually better than he was in his 3rd season (14.8 YPC to 13 YPC) but it was still fairly close to his career numbers. Then last year his YPC jumped from 13 to 17.9

+4 YPC is a massive jump. I’d very much like to see his 2024 numbers before I know who the real Aiyuk is.

Just feels like he’s more likely to regress to the ~13.5 YPC than he is to continue his ascension or repeat 2023.

Especially if he goes to the Browns or Pats.

But he still should be plenty valuable.

The reception perception dude, I believe he is on staff here, claims Aiyuk is a top 10 WR of the last 20 years on all that stupid **** you dynasty guys drool over like advanced metrics and efficiency and what not.

He absolutely should perform better fantasy wise on any team with a competent QB than he has/will as the 3rd/4th option on the Niners.

 

[jm192]

I forgot about Allen Robinson twice with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trunisky.

Now do Terry McLaurin

You do it. I am making the case for him. I said I might move him up. I haven't made a decision yet because the deal isn't done.

Aiyuk is a way better receiver THAN Mclaurin. Hope that helps.

I don't think Aiyuk is as talented as OBJ, Brandon Marshall or Steve Smith. Yet, you sure counted those. So the talent levels don't have to be equal when the comparison favors Aiyuk, but we sure care about it when it undermines "making the case" for him.

"Hey, look at these really good receiver seasons on bad teams."
"Also, ignore the all of the just ok seasons from receivers on bad teams"

It's a very disingenuous argument. It's certainly not compelling.

 

[msudaisy26]

I forgot about Allen Robinson twice with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trunisky.

Now do Terry McLaurin

You do it. I am making the case for him. I said I might move him up. I haven't made a decision yet because the deal isn't done.

Aiyuk is a way better receiver THAN Mclaurin. Hope that helps.

I don't think Aiyuk is as talented as OBJ, Brandon Marshall or Steve Smith. Yet, you sure counted those. So the talent levels don't have to be equal when the comparison favors Aiyuk, but we sure care about it when it undermines "making the case" for him.

It's a very disingenuous argument. It's certainly not compelling.

Then don't reply, you don't get to tell me my argument isn't sincere.

 

[TheWinz]

In 2001 Keyshawn Johnson led the league with 180 targets - he finished as WR28

How's that for some quality cherry picking?

 

[jm192]

and Aiyuk is better than Cooper

I’m not positive that’s true. Cooper is an exceptional WR and has been for a long time.

Aiyuk had a 1000+ season on 78 receptions, then a 1300+ yard season on 75 receptions. All on a team with the best RB in the NFL in CMC, and one of the best weapons in the NFL in Deebo.

In his sophomore season he was actually better than he was in his 3rd season (14.8 YPC to 13 YPC) but it was still fairly close to his career numbers. Then last year his YPC jumped from 13 to 17.9

+4 YPC is a massive jump. I’d very much like to see his 2024 numbers before I know who the real Aiyuk is.

Just feels like he’s more likely to regress to the ~13.5 YPC than he is to continue his ascension or repeat 2023.

Especially if he goes to the Browns or Pats.

But he still should be plenty valuable.

The reception perception dude, I believe he is on staff here, claims Aiyuk is a top 10 WR of the last 20 years on all that stupid **** you dynasty guys drool over like advanced metrics and efficiency and what not.

He absolutely should perform better fantasy wise on any team with a competent QB than he has/will as the 3rd/4th option on the Niners.

I don't know about "absolutely."

Sometimes it's better to have a medium slice of a huge pie than a large slice of a tiny pie.

The 49ers have one of the best/most efficient offenses in football. You can debate Purdy until the end of time, but he's certainly good at getting his playmakers the footbal.

Are the Patriots going to sustain drives? Are the patriots going to score enough touchdowns? Can the QB's get him the ball in position to make plays on a consistent basis?

I think we'll look back and see 2023 as his best season.

 

[jm192]

I forgot about Allen Robinson twice with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trunisky.

Now do Terry McLaurin

You do it. I am making the case for him. I said I might move him up. I haven't made a decision yet because the deal isn't done.

Aiyuk is a way better receiver THAN Mclaurin. Hope that helps.

I don't think Aiyuk is as talented as OBJ, Brandon Marshall or Steve Smith. Yet, you sure counted those. So the talent levels don't have to be equal when the comparison favors Aiyuk, but we sure care about it when it undermines "making the case" for him.

It's a very disingenuous argument. It's certainly not compelling.

Then don't reply, you don't get to tell me my argument isn't sincere.

It's not.

You're cherry picking the good situations that agree with you.
You're ignoring the bad ones that don't agree with you.

That's a bad faith argument.

That doesn't do anyone any good or help anyone be better at fantasy football.

If you want to ignore the facts and just say "I like Aiyuk and I don't care what you say" then just say that. Stop throwing out bad faith arguments and acting like you're backing up your view point with facts.

 

[msudaisy26]

I forgot about Allen Robinson twice with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trunisky.

Now do Terry McLaurin

You do it. I am making the case for him. I said I might move him up. I haven't made a decision yet because the deal isn't done.

Aiyuk is a way better receiver THAN Mclaurin. Hope that helps.

I don't think Aiyuk is as talented as OBJ, Brandon Marshall or Steve Smith. Yet, you sure counted those. So the talent levels don't have to be equal when the comparison favors Aiyuk, but we sure care about it when it undermines "making the case" for him.

It's a very disingenuous argument. It's certainly not compelling.

Then don't reply, you don't get to tell me my argument isn't sincere.

It's not.

You're cherry picking the good situations that agree with you.
You're ignoring the bad ones that don't agree with you.

That's a bad faith argument.

That doesn't do anyone any good or help anyone be better at fantasy football.

If you want to ignore the facts and just say "I like Aiyuk and I don't care what you say" then just say that. Stop throwing out bad faith arguments and acting like you're backing up your view point with facts.

It isn't bad faith when other wrs have done it. It means it is possible. Just say you hate Aiyuk and move on.