Lansdowne
Footballguy
With Pittsburgh it almost seems like a lateral move, at best, for Brandon Aiyuk as far as target volume goes.I also think there's a real debate between Aiyuk and Cooper.It's questionable to begin with that Aiyuk is an upgrade over Cooper.
This is the second time I saw something like this posted in this thread. To me, Aiyuk is clearly better, and I'm surprised that is not a unanimous perspective.
Aiyuk had slightly better stats this year. Cooper missed 1 more game than Aiyuk. He's on a worse offense. He has less play makers around him. He had bad quarterback play. People remember Flacco. But 40% of the team's passes were thrown by Dorian Walker, Jeff Driskel, and Dorian Thomson Robinson.
Cooper was statistically better than Aiyuk in 2022. Cooper has done it across multiple teams: Oakland, Dallas, Cleveland.
Cooper is the #1 WR. And after the Chubb injury, he didn't have a lot of talent on offense to shift the focus off of him.
Aiyuk has a team full of playmakers with Deebo, CMC, Kittle drawing the defense's attention. Aiyuk has Purdy who has been one of the most efficient QB's in the NFL during his tenure. He has Shannahan who is an offensive genius.
I think if we take away the amazing offense, the brilliant coach, the hyper efficient QB, Aiyuk may not be as good.
I know Cooper can do it without those things.
But we are talking about 2024. Cooper's history is great... but it's history. He is 30. Aiyuk is 26. That matters tremendously.
Let's say Aiyuk goes to Pittsburgh. He swaps Purdy for Wilson/Fields. He swaps Shanahan for Arthur Smith. He swaps his 49ers teammates on offense for Steelers teammates. All 3 of those things are clear downgrades. Yet, IMO he will be better than Cooper in 2024 in that situation.
Just an opinion. Will be interesting to see it play out.
The leader in targets for every team Arthur Smith called plays for dating back to 2019:
2019 - TEN - A.J. Brown w/ 84 targets (52-1051-8)
2020 - TEN - A.J. Brown w/ 106 targets (70-1075-11)
2021 - ATL - Kyle Pitts w/ 110 targets (68-1026-1)
2022 - ATL - Drake London w/ 117 targets (72-866-4)
2023 - ATL - Drake London w/ 110 targets (69-905-2)
Those numbers came with the QB's being Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinecke. Assuming Aiyuk goes to the Steelers, he'll be joining a team with Justin Fields presumably the starting QB (who is averaging 407 pass attempts for every 17 games played). The Steelers had the 4th fewest passing attempts, more due to poor QB play than positive game script (unlike the 49ers who had the fewest pass attempts because they usually ran the ball with a lead late in games). If George Pickens isn't part of the trade then that is someone who will cut in to the target share as well.
There is a world where both Aiyuk and Pickens can see 100+ targets each in a Fields-led passing attack (in 2021 Darnell Mooney saw 140 targets and Cole Kmet had 93, and in 2023 D.J. Moore saw 136 targets and Kmet had 90). But any dream of Aiyuk seeing 150+ targets (which the top 10 targets leaders at WR last season got) is probably dashed, for 2024 at least.
Neither Fields nor Wilson are under contract beyond 2024 which would be another interesting thing to consider. I'm sure that could change if either one finds success during this season. But I wouldn't feel great as an Aiyuk owner with a move to Pittsburgh, I would just be hoping he can replicate his
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