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WR Deebo Samuel, SF (1 Viewer)
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The Frankman
Footballguy
Why couldn't you?
He's a tricky guy for me to figure out. I have him on a few dynasty teams and loaded up on him this past year in redraft as I thought his game was NFL ready and I argued on these boards last offseason I'd take him over Pettis. Was my second ranked rookie WR this year.
So I liked him coming in, he had a really good rookie year, yet I'm my enthusiasm for him is not super high.
I can't say for sure he won't ever get consistent usage. Offense's with Kyle as OC I believe produced two WR's who led the league in targets. I think on that, I know for sure they got over 180 targets. But I still worry about the usage and in many ways things really went as good as could be expected for him this year. Trent Taylor many think would have led team in targets. Never played. Hurd never played. Pettis cratered. So desperate they had to swing deal for Sanders and ran Kendrick Bourne as the #3 most of the year. I don't think it should be expected that the WR comp for targets on his team will ever be that lean again. Plus while Mostert had a nice playoff run I still think they will try and upgrade RB which is another hindrance.
You just got Kittle as an almost defacto WR1, they like to throw to the RB's a lot and with the defense being strong they just don't have to pass so much. Kyle I believe is an offensive genius, and maybe a whole offseason he'll figure out new and creative ways to use him but I just go back to worrying about the usage.
Just look at the playoffs for my final point. Deebo looked terrific. If anyone says that guy did not look fearless and explosive I'd never listen to a thing they say again on issues related to football. And that got him a whopping PPR production of 7.8, 10.9, and 14.1 points. He's just a rookie, he should continue to get better, Kyle should continue to find ways to use him, but I can't shake the concerns I have with consistent usage and that's a problem for me with WR's in particular.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
I like him every time I see a 49'er game which isn't a lot. I wouldn't mind owning him but I would say at present his upside does seem to be limited by the fact that the 49'ers are built to run the football and play great defense and when they pass Kittle really is the best weapon so I feel his opportunities will be reduced some.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yes, it is a little concerning when your wide receiver is dependent on getting rushing TDs to support his fantasy value.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I don’t know. Seems like the 49ers want to use him in a Percy Harvin type fashion. May limit his upside but his floor seems pretty high as well.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Over his last 11 games he has 926 total yards as a rookie. That prorates to 1347 yards over 16 games. He may have more upside than most think.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I believe he will continue to evolve and become more involved than he already is. Kittle will always get his (unless he gets injured), but Samuel will definitely be their #2 receptions leader going forward.
Harvin is exactly who I have in my head when I think about him.
I would actually argue he does in fact have a very high ceiling if the offense evolves into featuring him more, just have doubts that it will. Julio is Julio but when a guy like Garcon got 180 targets in this offense it's not something I can ignore as ever having and if he ever got 80% of that I think he'd be a top 10 WR with ease. Just not sure he gets that.
Having owned him a ton this past year I would not be so sure to label him as having a high floor. Now he might very well get their next year but I know last year I never started him with confidence and again if you look at this playoff production in terms of PPR fantasy stats that is not what qualifies as a high floor to me.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
He was a rookie though. Dude just passes the eye test for me. 926 total yards in his last 11 games is not only impressive but also a good sample size. I didn’t feel 100% confident starting him either but that was more being unproven than the actual numbers he put up.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Impressive? yes. Dominant? no. Gimmicky? yes.
All of that leads me to believe he'll max out value wise in the teen's range either this year or next year. That is unless the offense features Deebo more than it does with Kittle. I doubt that's going to happen. They're built on running, screens, short slants and Kittle. That isn't going to change no matter how good Deebo gets after year 1. He's a nice guy to have on your roster currently, but in 2-3 years if nothing changes, you'll begin to question why you didn't sell earlier because he'll turn into a premium roster clogger who is useful sometimes but doesn't retain high value because there are better upside plays.
If the offense does evolve into something feature Deebo, he'll retain that value for 3-5 years. Just making the sell window a little longer. Eventually he'll settle into a Jarvis Landry type of player fantasy wise. A few top12 finishes, a guy nobody really wants, but a guy nobody wants to trade either because he's more valuable on a team than his actual trade value.
I like Deebo a lot as a player, but this is just me being realistic. With the next 2 upcoming classes (and more), it's only going to push Deebo down the rankings board rather than up.
All of that leads me to believe he'll max out value wise in the teen's range either this year or next year. That is unless the offense features Deebo more than it does with Kittle. I doubt that's going to happen. They're built on running, screens, short slants and Kittle. That isn't going to change no matter how good Deebo gets after year 1. He's a nice guy to have on your roster currently, but in 2-3 years if nothing changes, you'll begin to question why you didn't sell earlier because he'll turn into a premium roster clogger who is useful sometimes but doesn't retain high value because there are better upside plays.
If the offense does evolve into something feature Deebo, he'll retain that value for 3-5 years. Just making the sell window a little longer. Eventually he'll settle into a Jarvis Landry type of player fantasy wise. A few top12 finishes, a guy nobody really wants, but a guy nobody wants to trade either because he's more valuable on a team than his actual trade value.
I like Deebo a lot as a player, but this is just me being realistic. With the next 2 upcoming classes (and more), it's only going to push Deebo down the rankings board rather than up.
I think he is a really good NFL WR but that it doesn't exactly translate to fantasy goodness. I owned him this year and never really knew when to play him. His usage was all over the place yet steadily increased as the year went on. He is scary with the ball in his hands. I just don't have confidence that he will get the volume week to week to be able to be counted on. Great WR3/Flex guy but I don't think I would trust him as an every week WR2. Upside is there and if usage gets more consistent he will be great.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
This is definitely the average opinion, as stated many times by others here. Because people are so down on him you're selling at his floor imo. If he never improves as a wr you break even. If he takes a DJ Moore leap you're gaining a lot.Zyphros said:
I don't think people are down on him but the average opinion as you say seems to be concern on consistent usage.
I already left a long post saying there are things about him that are hard to figure out because I liked the talent coming in, he flashed, but not so sure that just because he's a rookie the path for him is necessarily significantly upward. That's probably were people who just love him to death vs those of us a little cautious split in our opinions. It's not illogical to think if he's this as a rookie the sky is pointing up just have reasons to think this may not be the case.
I don't generally hedge myself in dynasty, preferring to be all-in on players or all-out. With Deebo I find myself hedging. I traded him away in one league already, not that I was looking to and fought against it for a week but he was part of a larger package that eventually required me to include him in the trade. I still have him in two leagues. If right offer came along I'm good with moving him in one but would probably need to be blown away to give up on him entirely. I want some peace of him should he explode, which I do think is possible. Will also just be odd for me next year not having a lot of interest to pull for him. In my message on him earlier I mentioned he was my #2 rookie for dynasty coming into the year but he was my #1 redraft rookie and due to his cheap cost I loaded up on him last year to point he was my most owned player.
As for taking a DJ Moore leap. Entirely possible but if he takes a leap in 2020 he'll be basically around 27 months older then when DJ took a leap this past year.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm a few months late to jump into this discussion, but yeah, "sell high" is questionable advice on a guy who is ranked as the #24 dynasty WR in PPR.
You wouldn't think it after his strong rookie year, but he's somehow still undervalued. If you think he's hit his ceiling after getting 81 targets as a rookie then I think you're sorely misguided. He has a freaky speed/strength combo and may just be scratching the surface of what he can do production-wise. His ratio of big plays last season was special. WR9 in PPR over the second half of last season, and WR15 on ppg during that same stretch. And now people want to sell this dude? Doesn't make sense to me. If he can maintain decent efficiency over a higher workload, he could really blow up. DJ Moore is an apt comparison.
When you land a big talent, don't overthink it. Just hold on and enjoy the ride. Sometimes there are bumps in the road, like we saw with Mixon, Barkley, and JuJu last season, but long-term these are the guys you want on your roster. High ceiling, real deal talent who's a threat for a top 15 finish at his position every year. Wouldn't trade him for any rookie WR, or any rookie pick lower than 1.02. Rookies like Lamb and Jeudy can only aspire to become what he already is.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Deebo will be a star. Like AJB he had an amazingly efficient rookie season. Strong and fast is a deadly combination in the NFL.
The problem with Deebo isn't Deebo. It is the SF offense and how they interchange their pieces that makes Deebo difficult to own. He is extremely talented and is always exciting with the ball in his hands.
He is a difficult player to evaluate for value because the owner sees what could be for his ceiling and doesn't want to give that up without getting the value out of it. However, the buyer knows how low the floor could be because they decide to not use him this week in the game plan and he kills your weekly lineup. So they don't want to pay the premium. So it's just a natural cavern between potential value and potential floor. It is very hard to bridge that gap.
He is a difficult player to evaluate for value because the owner sees what could be for his ceiling and doesn't want to give that up without getting the value out of it. However, the buyer knows how low the floor could be because they decide to not use him this week in the game plan and he kills your weekly lineup. So they don't want to pay the premium. So it's just a natural cavern between potential value and potential floor. It is very hard to bridge that gap.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree that DJ is the upside mold, but it’s worth pointing out that Deebo dropped a ton of balls and his avg target distance was only 6 yards on the balls he did catch. He had a good season, but I’d still take Lamb or Jeudy personally. He’s in a great situation and might put up big numbers next season, but I prefer the rookies in a vacuum.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I wouldn’t necessarily argue with that but from what I’ve seen Deebo is valued a lot lower than where Lamb is getting drafted.
EBF
Footballguy
There is no premium, if the dynasty rankings I'm seeing online are to be trusted.
WR22 according to FFToday.
WR24 according to FantasyPros.
WR28 according to FBGs.
WR31 according to CBS.
These are incredibly conservative, tepid rankings for a guy who finished WR31 as a rookie, with a strong surge in the second half.
He's on a DJ Moore/Tyreek Hill/JuJu trajectory, yet people have him ranked behind physical mediocrities like Lamb and Jeudy who haven't played a snap in the NFL. It's insanity. Deebo was not picked super far behind those guys, brings a much more elite physical skill set with 4.4x speed on a yoked frame, and has already proven to be a playmaker at the NFL level. He had 17 receptions of 20+ yards on just 81 targets, for a big play % of 21.0%. I'm not sure you can find another NFL WR who was similarly explosive on a reasonable target load last season. Julio was behind him. Tyreek was behind him. Godwin was behind him.
One argument is that he had a fluky season and will need a higher target load to hit the same totals. The counter point is that he's a special player whose stats will only increase as his volume improves. The debate in this thread is eerily similar to conversations on these boards about Tyreek Hill from a couple years ago where people are not giving the player enough credit for his latent upside, operating under the faulty assumption that he can't be much more than what he already is.
I agree with voiceofunreason though. If you can truly get him for a WR25-WR30 price in dynasty, you're effectively buying him at his floor. The ceiling is much, much higher than that, so it's an extremely appealing price point if you can actually swing it. I can't speak for all Deebo owners, but personally you're paying a top 10-15 WR price if you want to get him from me because I think that's closer to his true value.
My comment was based on what current actual owners perceive as his price vs what non-owners are willing to pay for him (which you touched on in your last sentence). He has a large gap in that difference. The premium I meant was the premium put on it by the current owners. They want closer to the ceiling value in return to give him up.
Rankings by "experts" don't always have relevance to the price point in trying to trade/acquire a player.
The issue I have is that the SF offense is so hit and miss on who they utilize from week to week. That is the downside to Deebo. He has all the skills but the offense and utilization rates are tough to count on. He will always have the big play benefit where he doesn't need the touches but he also could finish with 2 catches for 23 yds and 2 rushes for 13. There is a wide variance that a guy like Hill doesn't get subjected to because the offenses are vastly different. That is the biggest issue with Deebo. It's not him, its the offense usage from week to week. That is likely why "experts" have him ranked so low in your opinion.
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, I agree with you there. I'm saying if that WR25-30 price is an accurate reflection of what he costs in your league, he's a no-brainer buy/hold.
If someone is valuing him like a top 10-15 guy already, there's a much thinner profit margin and buying might not make sense.
Personally, I have him on 4/5 dynasty squads and you'd need the jaws of life to get him off my roster.
He checks every box for what I want on my dynasty squads: Young. Good draft profile. Special physical talent. Special production.
Deamon
Footballguy
Are you talking dynasty? In redraft, Deebo is getting drafted well before Lamb.
I am not saying he is any worse or better. My comments were only in regards to the gap in trade value between buyers and sellers.
However, I do believe those offenses aren't as variable as SF. Their roles and usage has been more consistent (when healthy). Both of those examples have struggled with injury that has affected their performances and consistency. Although, I have never been a fan of either Diggs or Cooper for fantasy. I actually don't think I have ever had either one.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
And not to mention HC Kyle Shanahan's brilliant offensive scheme. Yes, his play-calling can be maddening especially with RBs but there shouldn't be any doubt on pecking order for receiving target. Before Deebo came along, Kittle was their alpha receiver (and rightfully remains as-is). Shanahan tried to bring Pettis up to par as Kittles yet he didnt, giving Deebo every opportunity especially toward latter end of the season and playoffs. Now 49ers drafted Brandon Aiyuk to fortify their receiving team to augment Kittles and Deebo.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That sucks.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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EBF
Footballguy
Tough luck.
Short-term arrow up for Aiyuk.
Wasn't anticipating massive FF impact for Aiyuk this season, but now he'll potentially be the WR1 out of the gate. Big opportunity for him.
His skill set is a type that often impacts early, so there's some intrigue there for best ball formats and deep redrafts.
Short-term arrow up for Aiyuk.
Wasn't anticipating massive FF impact for Aiyuk this season, but now he'll potentially be the WR1 out of the gate. Big opportunity for him.
His skill set is a type that often impacts early, so there's some intrigue there for best ball formats and deep redrafts.
