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WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
Milkman
Footballguy
We'll see how long it lasts. It was a pretty insane ban but whatever. I enjoyed the time away and probably won't post as much.
Lol just in and out here and there.
rockaction
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Mims
6'3
207
40- 4.38
Vert - 38.5
3 cone- 6.66
Bench - 16
Jones
6'3
220
40- 4.39
Vert - 38.5
3 cone - 6.66
Bench - 17
Interpretation of these similarities will differ but this draft is absolutely loaded at WR. With so many options at WR (Mims isn't even in my top 3) it's going to push Mims down the draft board as it should. If I was a GM I wouldn't draft a WR in the 1st round and maybe not the 2nd round either. Not because I don't like him but because there's even better options that can be had later in the draft.
rockaction
Footballguy
Just saw a graph of Mims's separation issues. He ranks remarkably towards the bottom of the receiver class in gaining separation at the college level. How will that translate to the professional level. It might be like JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Milkman
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Gotcha. I prefer defenders falling down and ankles breaking because of routes run rather than contested catches in college, but to each their own.
I just watched that and wasn’t totally impressed. Not sure what’s wrong with me. I guess they didn’t show much variety and nfl corners can defend some of that.
Milkman
Footballguy
3 cone speed def helps but players gain separation different ways.
7.01 is not a bad 3 cone though.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation
Diontae Johnson isn't fast but he's one of the best at getting separation. How does he do it if he's not that fast?
miqws
Footballguy
Brett Kollmann Podcast: Why Denzel Mims is the sleeper superstar of the 2020 NFL draft
https://youtu.be/8VzzDaz1Hbk
https://youtu.be/8VzzDaz1Hbk
I understand why this is a concern re things like breakout age and other metrics considerations, but he's 23 to start the year. I mean, that's a lot of years of football in front of him. If you are just viewing it from a dynasty league lens, does his age really matter?
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
There's a lot of data involved that says yes it does matter, 23 is actually old for a rookie as most are early 21ish-22 but it's more than just an age thing once you understand the data it makes total sense. I wasn't a believer at first even with the data showing it matters but after I made the mistake for a few years then I became a believer. If he falls to a certain point I'd take him. I'm not a believer in a "no draft" list but more of a "red flag" list. If I have a younger player which I have a few, that's on the board in the same range then I'm passing. I'm not drafting him in the 1st maybe end of 2nd, I'll just put it that way because I'm trying to like him but it's with caution.
Tex
This time last year I was getting shredded on here for pointing out how Deebo was elderly for a rookie. Deebo‘s age in his rookie year is almost a year older than Mims rookie year will be, so Mims feels like a young pup to me now
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I like Mims but any rookie WR in his tier is going to have warts. The thing I like about him is that not only did he tear up the combine, he produced on the field. For a man his size he isn't physical enough on contested catches and I worry about his release and route running. One has to wonder about his competitive nature.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Deebo was also drafted in the 2nd round but he's an outliner, even though he was drafted in the 2nd doesn't guarantee success, just more opportunities and Deebo is very talented. He's the 1st Senior WR that I've drafted that actually produced. How many can we actually name that are successful? Not many, I'd bet against him 9.5/10. I haven't really looked at all of his numbers yet but I'm having some concerns and will likely pass depending on who's on the board. I have 3 picks in the 2nd round and as of today I don't plan on using them on Mims. I'm on furlough so I have nothing but time so I'll be doing some deep diving this week.
Tex
Hankmoody
Footballguy
In addition to Deebo:
Michael Thomas
Terry McLaurin
Courtland Sutton
Cooper Kupp
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyler Lockett
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Calvin Ridley.
While I think their age and breakout age are useful data points, I dont think they are the only data points to consider.
Some players are just good regardless.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Great list and I'm wondering what percent does this represent? I guess I have another project and to clarify how many of these declared early matters too. I don't mind running the numbers later today. They numbers I have now cover 2017 and that number is 17% success rate which is very, very low.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Breakout age + Early declaration + Dominator Rating and I've stating there are some outliners, some guys are just gifted but that number compared to the WR that are drafted is still small and I'm still looking at the younger early declaration because they are more successful than those who go all four years of school but I won't derail this thread. I know over the years you have had your methods that work for you but sometimes they don't. I'd like to explore this more. The WR is absolutely the hardest position to nail down but I believe we can be more successful than not by looking at some key data points.
Tex
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I should clarify, according to the definition success rate = avg 200 PPR during their 1st two years in the NFL.
Tex
Zyphros
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Seems arbitrary. Was AB not successful? I guess Chris Godwin was a bust and that DeAndre Hopkins guy - man I'm glad I cut him after year 2. What if a guy misses 4 games but averages 199 - that's way better than someone that averaged 200 points with full schedules. And why is 200 "successful" but not 199? And by your definition then Deebo can't even be a breakout/outlier yet.
17% success rate - what the hit rate on all fantasy 1st round picks? 17% is nearly 1 in 5, and is almost exactly 2 in 12, so is this even statistically significant?
I'm being a bit snarky but don't mean anything personal by it, just pointing out that there's a lot of context that needs to be taken in these things.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think these are all good things to look at. I have some issues with where people might set the margins.BigTex said:
I think watching the players is pretty important too. The thing that I have been focusing on when watching the players is their spatial awareness. How well do they see the field? What is their understanding of defenses and where the leverage points will be? I think this is VERY important. Look at CeeDee Lamb navigate the traffic compared to other WRs.
There is no silver bullet, but I consider each data point together and balance them based on how significant each one is. I try to quantify things as much as I can, but a lot of it just swimming around in my head. For example I do think some combine metrics matter, but I would not weight them as strongly as things like college production.
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Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
1. Burrow
2. Young
34. Mims
2. Young
34. Mims
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I agree 100%, I only look at these numbers to help in the decision making process. The 1st thing I notice about Lamb his vision, the way he navigates through traffic is running back like. You see very little WR weave through traffic that way. I always evaluate players first then look at the data last but they are all just tools to help.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I've already said this twice, but not to go too far off but the 1st three 3yrs of a WRs season determines their career, this is a fact. There are numbers that show weather or not you should hold on to a WR after their 3rd season in the NFL.
ETA I have both Hopkins and Deebo on my Dyno team and I drafted AB only to trade him for a hefty price.
Tex
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Sure, but your statement "averaging 200 points over their first 2 seasons" doesn't jive with this. First because you said 2 years, but also because 200 points seems arbitrary. Why is that the cutoff? Take the top 10 fantasy WR from each of the last 5 years and tell me what their first 2 (or is it 3?) years averaged? I'll bet you a quarantine sandwich it's less than 200 points.
Again, not attacking you, I just haven't seen any data here so if you've got it show it, I'd love to parse it out.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
@BigTex I agree with what Hankmoody is saying about the 200 point season cut off bein something that needs further evaluation. Thresholds and margins are needed but it is always hard to find that Goldylocks sweet spot
When you are plotting a course, if you start out wrong you end up wrong and you are going to need to adjust your calculations to the reality to finally arrive at your destination. The more accurate the point of origin is, the less need for such corrections.
When you are plotting a course, if you start out wrong you end up wrong and you are going to need to adjust your calculations to the reality to finally arrive at your destination. The more accurate the point of origin is, the less need for such corrections.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I'm not really sure where you're getting this from. I don't think I said anything about a cutoff, but I'd rather not get to far into this in a thread about Mims. But the method that I'm using works perfectly for me especially considering over the course of my fantasy football years the WR position was the hardest for me to nail down.
To the second part I'm not really sure what you're asking. I'm not here to prove the method I'm currently using, I've seen this play out on the forum before and I'm simply not interested.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
You have not seen my plots or my calculations and I prefer to just leave this thread.
Tex
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
No I haven't seen those or what you have decided to use or not use.BigTex said:
What I am talking about is more general theory crafting which is a topic of great interest to me.
In your previous post you brought up some things such as Breakout age + Early declaration + Dominator Rating as things to consider.
You can find the breakout age here 19.9 years 67th percentile (which is a good descriptive stat that avoids the issues of thresholds) 42% DR 86th percentile. Pretty good prospect from a college production stand point, the only thing missing would be that he didn't declare early. and played his senior season. He had a down year in 2018 as far as yards and receptions but he still scored 8 TD. He likely didn't get a high enough recommendation from the advisory board as why he didn't declare as a Jr
Mimz has excellent combine metrics as well and that 3 cone time could mean he has the upside to develop the quickness of his breaks when route running into something special at his size. While I don't think this is as important as the college production (which is good) Mimz is in the top 5% in 4 out of 5 of those categories, and I am shuked by why he is only 67th percentile in the agility score.
As many are saying he lacks refinement in his route running ability, but this is something that could still develop with coaching.
Because Mimz was a senior he got to prove himself at the Senior Bowl where he did very well.
How does that compare to all of the other WR prospects in the 2020 draft? Mimz is an excellent prospect.
