WR Bryan Edwards, LV (2 Viewers)

[rockaction]

Fire, meet wet blanket

Ray G 

@RayGQue

·

4h

bryan edwards didn’t do #### in las vegas and he ain’t about to do #### in atlanta. go read a book if you’re bored - but spare us all the fantasy or real football optimistic outlooks

 

[Ilov80s]

Fire, meet wet blanket

Ray G 

@RayGQue

·

4h

bryan edwards didn’t do #### in las vegas and he ain’t about to do #### in atlanta. go read a book if you’re bored - but spare us all the fantasy or real football optimistic outlooks

Yeah that is probably true. Edwards looks like a bust. Not sure why ATL would change that. 

 

[Chadstroma]

The Falcons certainly have a type. They want big bodied, tall targets. 

Edwards had flashes. He was most effective with Ruggs on the other side. Conventional wisdom was that he would flourish being more involved but the opposite happened, he declined in effectiveness. He is still super young and I think he potential to continue to develop but he needs a true number 1 WR on the other side to take attention off of him for him to be able to do damage. I was excited to see what he could do with Adams on the other side but that will not happen. 

 

[LawFitz]

Count me in with the solid trade camp. I like what I've seen from Edwards. Ironically, I've comp'd him as a poor-man's Davonte Adams. Okay maybe a homeless-man's. Maybe a naked homeless man. Without a tent. Either way, upside makes it a good day for ATL.

Also, FYI in case it comes up later - he's been backup'ing with Mariota for the last two years with the Raiders. Pitts and London already in tow make this an interesting rebuild year.

 

[JohnnyU]

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then by God it’s a duck.

 

[Birdie048]

Yeah that is probably true. Edwards looks like a bust. Not sure why ATL would change that. 

I wonder if he "never really recovered" from the foot injury to be what LV want him to be? 

He was evaluated pretty highly and was considered a Top 10 in his Class pre-injury, but Bust or Wrong scheme?

I sent out a 4th round offer to test the waters... 

 

[massraider]

He'll be a better athlete than any WR they will find in the 5th next year, and that WR cupboard is BARE, so why not? Completely worth a shot. 

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

He's a lot more interesting in ATL than he was in Las Vegas, but I'm not sure what's going to change with Mariota.   His failure to stick on the Raiders wasn't' for lack of opportunity.   I loved what he was able to do with the targets that he got.   Good things happened when the ball went to Edwards.  High yards per reception, seemed very sure handed.  As someone who held for most of his first two seasons due in part to the Devante Adams comparisons from Carr, It was his inability to generate targets that was the killer.   I'm sure some of it falls on the offense and Carr's unwillingness to take deep shots, but I think NFL QBs throw to big sure-handed receivers when they get open.

2020:  15 targets on 259 snaps =  5.79%

2021:  59 targets on 811 snaps  = 7.27%

It was always pie in the sky, but for reference, Devante Adams target rate in his first two seasons:  8.94% & 12.34%.  Not necessarily significant given the Packers 14-15 offense  compared to the 20-21 Raiders, but this was the name drop that kind of put the August training camp hype on Edwards in high gear.

I was curious to see how Edwards compared to another big SEC receiver, this one was a true first round bust, particularly noteworthy for a complete inability to get open at the NFL level....

16-19 Laquan Treadwell, MN Vikings = 107 targets on 1294 snaps = 8.27%

Bryan Edwards got scooped  last year by a rebuilding team in my league, so I won't be able to participate in his Atlanta redemption tour.   I think the 5-7 swap is a decent indication that ATL likes him a little more than a what the hell flier.  I don't know that it's a better option, but I might throw a late round flier on a even bigger WR that made his way to ATL this offseason, 6'5" 228  Auden Tate.   Last time he got any run in Cincy was 2019 before Burrow and Higgins.  80 targets in 647 snaps = 12.36% target rate.   Only caught half of those balls, but for 575 yards, 14.4 YPR, less than stellar 7.2 yards per target in 12 games -- 9 with Dalton (6.6 yds/att in '19) & 3 with Finley (5.4 yds/att) .

So you have one big who commanded targets, but wasn't too efficient with them (but probably wasn't helped by Dalton/Finley).

-vs- 

another big super efficient with the targets he received (17.0 YPR, 10.3 YPT), but wasn't able to command nearly enough of them.    It will be interesting to see who wins, if either.

 

[joey]

I sent out a 4th round offer to test the waters... 

the news of the trade literally broke as my Mr Irrelevant pick went on the clock (7.12 FFPC 1QB TEP) and I scoop him right up. 
A likely cut before week 1, in FFPC”s keep 20 format, but too good to pass up at that point with what just went down. 
And I’m a raiders fan, so I’m totally rooting for this kid. 

 

[Chadstroma]

He'll be a better athlete than any WR they will find in the 5th next year, and that WR cupboard is BARE, so why not? Completely worth a shot. 

Totally makes sense for the Falcons... less so for the Raiders. 

 

[cloppbeast]

He wouldn't be the first guy to finally breakout in year 3.

 

[MAC_32]

He wouldn't be the first guy to finally breakout in year 3.

How many previous year 3 breakouts put up relatively solid age 18 and 19 seasons then plateaud as an amateur age 20 and 21 and did nothing as a pro age 22 and 23. 

 

[joey]

How many previous year 3 breakouts put up relatively solid age 18 and 19 seasons then plateaud as an amateur age 20 and 21 and did nothing as a pro age 22 and 23. 

Oh oh oh! I love riddles!

um…I don’t know. Who?

 

[cloppbeast]

How many previous year 3 breakouts put up relatively solid age 18 and 19 seasons then plateaud as an amateur age 20 and 21 and did nothing as a pro age 22 and 23. 

I'm unable to find significance in these qualifiers.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

How many previous year 3 breakouts put up relatively solid age 18 and 19 seasons then plateaud as an amateur age 20 and 21 and did nothing as a pro age 22 and 23. 

I will also add that I'm at a loss for breakout WRs that got playing time before their breakout and did so little with it in terms of targets.  Not saying it doesn't exist in modern NFL history, but I couldn't find anyone that qualified from the top 150 current dynasty WR rankings.   That's not to say that nobody has ever posted a worse target rate than Edwards in his first two seasons @ 5.8% & 7.3%, but the company isn't great.

He has JJAW beat (4.5% & 5.7% -- small sample size).   

He also has Miles Boykin beat ( 5.2% & 6.1% -- small sample size)

The verdict is still out on Peoples-Jones, but kind of similar in terms of high productivity with the balls that get thrown to him, but doesn't get many targets  ( 7.5% & 8.3%).   I think of DPJ as more of a home run hitter, whereas I always thought Edwards had some potential to have decent volume moving the chains and as a redzone target.  Perhaps I've been thinking of Edwards wrong, and his future is more of a one-dimensional deep ball specialist.

I thought maybe Corey Davis, but no, he's been at 12.6%, 12.8%, 9.7%, 12.8% in TEN, 13.1% w/ NYJ.  He had an injury plagued year 1 & 2, but plenty of optimism.   Dynasty value plummeted year 3, before his mini-breakout in Year 4 that got him his Jets contract.   

Different kind of WR, but any comparisons to Lockett's breakout?   Nope.  Lockett was solidly above 10% in the early years, and actually plummeted to 7.7% in his breakout as a homerun hitter, before becoming a heavily targeted fixture in the offense.

With all that said, I have no problem with Edwards as a late round flier.   He passes the eyeball test catching the ball and running with the ball, it's just everything up until that.  I don't think we can count on Mariota chucking it up and letting him win the ball, as I begged from Carr.   Maybe they can at least manufacture some RAC touches for him.

 

[travdogg]

I'm of the belief that Edwards been slightly better than expected so far. Of course, I was FAR lower on him than most and viewed him as a day 3 prospect when he came out, so if someone had higher expectations they likely haven't been met. 

As for his role in Atlanta, I remain pessimistic. With London and Pitts, they already have 2 bigger weapons, and I think its entirely possible Zaccheaus and Byrd are more valued due to their shiftiness, not to mention Patterson's unique role. One point in Edwards favor is nobody on the team has a better rapport with Mariota than he does, but does that matter? For that matter, how long until Ridder is inevitably starting?

If I were an Edwards owner, I'd be trying to sell on the idea of him possibly having a shot to be a top-3 weapon. Maybe doing a 2-1 with Edwards+. 

The verdict is still out on Peoples-Jones, but kind of similar in terms of high productivity with the balls that get thrown to him, but doesn't get many targets  ( 7.5% & 8.3%).   I think of DPJ as more of a home run hitter, whereas I always thought Edwards had some potential to have decent volume moving the chains and as a redzone target.  Perhaps I've been thinking of Edwards wrong, and his future is more of a one-dimensional deep ball specialist.

With all that said, I have no problem with Edwards as a late round flier.   He passes the eyeball test catching the ball and running with the ball, it's just everything up until that.  I don't think we can count on Mariota chucking it up and letting him win the ball, as I begged from Carr.   Maybe they can at least manufacture some RAC touches for him.

I could see Peoples-Jones as a reasonable comparable player. Although he has a much better QB situation going forward. If Edwards has value in this offense, it probably would be as a deep threat. I'd be very surprised if they went out of their way to manufacture RAC touches with Edwards. London and Patterson both offer that ability, with less predictability in London's case, and much more YAC skill in Patterson's. 

 

[Ilov80s]

He wouldn't be the first guy to finally breakout in year 3.

The issue I see is that he had his chance last year. They desperately needed a WR to step up and he just didn’t. Now he’s in Atlanta where the QB situation is far worse and they have 2 big young alphas with top 10 draft capital. 

 

[massraider]

The issue I see is that he had his chance last year. They desperately needed a WR to step up and he just didn’t. Now he’s in Atlanta where the QB situation is far worse and they have 2 big young alphas with top 10 draft capital. 

That's the thing.

He's been there while they fed no upside WRs that someone trusted more than him. The opportunities were there, and guys that no one is excited about pushed him aside, and claimed them. 

He's still young, but in your 2nd year, I want you to beat out Zay Jones. 

 

[Ilov80s]

That's the thing.

He's been there while they fed no upside WRs that someone trusted more than him. The opportunities were there, and guys that no one is excited about pushed him aside, and claimed them. 

He's still young, but in your 2nd year, I want you to beat out Zay Jones. 

Exactly. The only ray of hope last year is there was a stretch early in the year when he was making big plays late in game. Though that never translated beyond that.

 

[mcd]

So, I'm looking at the projected stats for Edwards on the MFL site and they have him with 40 carries for 155 yards and 3tds, in addition to his receiving stats. That seems like a pretty large number to just throw into his stats. Has there been discussion/talk on using him at RB that I totally missed?

And yes, I know the Fantasy Shark stats used by MFL are pretty bad, but the number seems high even for them.

 

[rockaction]

And yes, I know the Fantasy Shark stats used by MFL are pretty bad

This is your answer. This guy barely breaks a 4.55 (never ran at the Combine). They're not using him on jet sweeps. 

 

[joey]

So, I'm looking at the projected stats for Edwards on the MFL site and they have him with 40 carries for 155 yards and 3tds, in addition to his receiving stats. That seems like a pretty large number to just throw into his stats. Has there been discussion/talk on using him at RB that I totally missed?

And yes, I know the Fantasy Shark stats used by MFL are pretty bad, but the number seems high even for them.

Fwiw, FBG projections have Edwards at a more appropriate rushing total of 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 TDs. 

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

How many previous year 3 breakouts put up relatively solid age 18 and 19 seasons then plateaud as an amateur age 20 and 21 and did nothing as a pro age 22 and 23. 

uh...  Joe Horn/Tim Brown/Jimmy Smith/Michael Irvin

 

[MAC_32]

uh...  Joe Horn/Tim Brown/Jimmy Smith/Michael Irvin

Joe Horn put up modest stats at a community college then went to work at Bojangles before working his way up in the CFL via the practice squad. If you're looking for a trajectory that's the exact opposite of Bryan Edwards then that might be it.

 

[Hoh]

I think it’s possible you could see some early season success (1-2 games?) that comes from familiarity with Marcus and not being on a defenses radar.  In which case sell high.

 

[Faust]

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said the team is "not down" on Bryan Edwards despite making him a healthy scratch in Week 3.​

Our guess is the Falcons are in fact down on Edwards, who has just one catch through two games and appeared on just 16 snaps in the team's Week 2 game against the Rams. The Falcons supposedly wanted to get a look at some other players, which led to Edwards being a healthy scratch on Sunday. If he was viewed as a key member of the offense, Atlanta would have found another way to get a look at other players while keeping Edwards active. He can be dropped in all leagues.
SOURCE: Josh Kendall on Twitter
Sep 26, 2022, 1:20 PM ET