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WR DK Metcalf, PIT (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ty247
- Start date
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Easy drop in keeper for me. It came down to him and JSN for the last spot. This made it far easier as I was just waiting to see his destination.
Maybe, but honestly, I'm not sure if overlap is a bad thing. Like I'd rather have 2 guys who win the same way, than just 1 good WR. Trading for DK only to deal Pickens feels like they aren't really improving their passing game that much, just making it a lot more expensive. I mean DK>>Pickens but is he a 2nd round pick and 26 million better. I'd say no way.
Blick
Footballguy
Doesn't Pickens become a free agent after this season? I don't think there was any way they were planning to pay him. Definitely not now. They'll draft one (maybe not this year) to have on a rookie deal.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I'll open with I've always just been a big Metcalf fan. Dude is just an amazing athlete. Only missed a handful of games in 6 seasons. Just always felt he could be used better.
Pickens now gone. Fantasypros has him at wr26. With Pickens gone, you gotta move him into the top 20 right? Run heavy team sucks, but hoping he becomes a red zone target guy.
Pickens now gone. Fantasypros has him at wr26. With Pickens gone, you gotta move him into the top 20 right? Run heavy team sucks, but hoping he becomes a red zone target guy.
eighsse2
Footballguy
If they don't add a decent WR, people will be saying that Metcalf will be getting doubled every route because they don't have any other receivers to cover. That's okay. Give me the 180 more difficult targets versus 120 average difficulty targets (2023 CeeDee Lamb says hi).
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Yep. Metcalf has been a teams wr1 and double teamed most of his career. Dude is just built different. Only 27 and in his prime. He ain't gonna be a ppr monster, but 10 tds with Rodgers chucking it seems likely to me.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Same. Give this guy 150+ targets and watch him wreak havoc. Rodger's deep ball and accuracy on slants and simple stuff? There is only one thing that can stop this from happening and his name is Arthur Smith.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Arthur is a pretty big obstacle in that process. However, with the absolute lack of receiving options behind DK I would think he would organically see an increase in opportunities. I still find it hard to believe Rodgers would want to go to Pittsburgh, but if he still has love for the game and that is his only option…
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Yep. That's my red flag for Metcalf. I keep thinking that Rodgers is the one qb that is arrogant, er, mentally strong enough to kinda force changes on what he wants if they coaches keep wanting to dink and the world says dunk.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Rodgers is more conservative than people think, at least in terms of play calling and game pace. He obviously isn't afraid to take shots though, and he might have 100% executive control at the LOS regardless. But he will draw every play down to 1 second on the play clock and is more than happy handing the ball off a *ton*
Yeah, he's actually been criticized by some people for being to a cautious or caring to much about his low INT stat's
Now those people who criticize him may be off, dumb, wrong, etc,etc. just saying you don't get this kind of criticism if you are not out there playing conservatively.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
PFF pretty much debunking the "Rodgers conservative" thing. If anything, compared to other elite QBs, he plays more aggressively when his team is trailing/their win probability drops low.
IMO that whole thing was a narrative primarily pushed by one GB sports writer who if you look up every article he wrote about Aaron Rodgers over the years, seems like he has an axe to grind, to me at least. Maybe some Packers fans would argue more of his ire was directed at Ted Thompson though and Rodgers was just a casualty of that. And obviously some of the talking heads who have a long history of latching onto bad narratives to get clicks like Colin Cowherd and Chris Simms parroted it after McGinn. Cowherd and Simms are basically just copies of Skip and SAS the past decade. And why not, it worked for those two.
It's honestly a pretty dumb argument if you spend even a few minutes looking at his stats; but since it fits this "Rodgers is a selfish ahole" narrative it gets jumped on, especially to discount/write off some of his most prolific stats. I'd argue there's a difference between playing smart and having elite accuracy along with a crazy awareness of throwing lanes/windows and... "playing conservatively". You don't get the number he did by constantly erring on the side of caution.
Regardless, more on track to the initial point, I posted articles indicating this: "According to several sources, Smith did not want Wilson changing plays at the line of scrimmage, like he did in Cincinnati, and deviating from the game plan," he added. "Wilson’s desire to attack with the pass and throw down the field clashed with Smith’s run-first mentality, causing philosophical friction between the two." And honestly, watching the games every Sunday, this really fits what I was seeing. The real shame is the game or two Wilson was, you know, being the high level experienced QB he was hired to be, were great for the Steelers. As soon as Arthur Smith got his panties in a bunch and put the choker collar back on Wilson, we started losing with our dink and dunk, RB toss 10 times a game offense.
Arthur Smith is the one to worry about here for Metcalfs results, regardless of who the QB is. I still question is Rodgers is even capable of playing like he did 5 years ago, and honestly lean towards the doubter side. But if he can... I'd be much more worried about Smith's ego than Rodgers being the one holding the offense back.
IMO that whole thing was a narrative primarily pushed by one GB sports writer who if you look up every article he wrote about Aaron Rodgers over the years, seems like he has an axe to grind, to me at least. Maybe some Packers fans would argue more of his ire was directed at Ted Thompson though and Rodgers was just a casualty of that. And obviously some of the talking heads who have a long history of latching onto bad narratives to get clicks like Colin Cowherd and Chris Simms parroted it after McGinn. Cowherd and Simms are basically just copies of Skip and SAS the past decade. And why not, it worked for those two.
It's honestly a pretty dumb argument if you spend even a few minutes looking at his stats; but since it fits this "Rodgers is a selfish ahole" narrative it gets jumped on, especially to discount/write off some of his most prolific stats. I'd argue there's a difference between playing smart and having elite accuracy along with a crazy awareness of throwing lanes/windows and... "playing conservatively". You don't get the number he did by constantly erring on the side of caution.
Regardless, more on track to the initial point, I posted articles indicating this: "According to several sources, Smith did not want Wilson changing plays at the line of scrimmage, like he did in Cincinnati, and deviating from the game plan," he added. "Wilson’s desire to attack with the pass and throw down the field clashed with Smith’s run-first mentality, causing philosophical friction between the two." And honestly, watching the games every Sunday, this really fits what I was seeing. The real shame is the game or two Wilson was, you know, being the high level experienced QB he was hired to be, were great for the Steelers. As soon as Arthur Smith got his panties in a bunch and put the choker collar back on Wilson, we started losing with our dink and dunk, RB toss 10 times a game offense.
Arthur Smith is the one to worry about here for Metcalfs results, regardless of who the QB is. I still question is Rodgers is even capable of playing like he did 5 years ago, and honestly lean towards the doubter side. But if he can... I'd be much more worried about Smith's ego than Rodgers being the one holding the offense back.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Wonder if that Steelers insider was Pickens
LawFitz
Footballguy
I've learned over time to never underestimate a dogwater OC's ability to crush fantasy hopes and dreams. I will probably avoid DK this year unless he falls dramatically. Seems Kaleb Johnson is the piece of this offense to own, if there is one.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah same here depending on ADP of course. I think if DK is priced as a low WR2 that's still good value. It's not that they never pass or take some long shots; to me it just feels like they don't adjust that play calling based on game script and the ebb and flow, let alone play by play based on defensive looks. But that's more if they land Rodgers. If it's Rudolph, yeah any pass catcher is likely an outright avoid. And even the run game might suffer, as in the few opportunities he's had, he's been a turnover machine. 28TD-20Ints over his career so far. Even if Arthur Smith doesn't abandon the run when they are down 2 scores in the second half, defenses will certainly be stacking the boxes at that point forcing them to beat them with Rudolph's arm. That will get very ugly very quick IMO.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Awfully quiet in here. I don’t see many other guys worth sending a lot of targets to in Pittsburgh. What are we expecting for him?
Harjiran
Footballguy
I've been holding DK for several years in a few leagues - I always thought he was on the verge of stardom in SEA but he never broke out for whatever reason. The physical tools are undeniable but I guess I have fairly low WR3-ish expectations this season - like 70 receptions for 1,000 yards and 4-5 TDs, something in that range. Not bad, not earth shattering, a solid bye week or injury replacement for my starters - if he finally breaks out with Rodgers, awesome but I'm definitely not counting on it.
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Da Franchise
Footballguy
I’m not expecting anything special from Rodgers and think Metcalf is a limited route runner and it caps his ceiling. It’s probably going to be the slowest paced offense in the league and I expect low scoring games with that defense. At the same time, I look at the Steelers and have to wonder where the targets are going to go. Doesn’t he almost have to get 150 targets?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Lots of target opportunities, especially in the red zone. I think the Jets threw more than anybody else in the red zone last year.
eighsse2
Footballguy
He's with the Steelers though. Oh, but you're saying because Rodgers. I get it.
Harjiran
Footballguy
You would think right? I would love that but Freiermuth, Jonnu, Austin and maybe Jaylen Warren will handle a lot of those targets, imo. Freiermuth may actually be the guy to own and a great buy low candidate.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah, I know it's different OCs but Rodgers feels like the type of QB who is going to do what he wants.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I get the sense he’s a little underrated at the moment. His catch rate has been in the 60-65% range, but I bet Rodgers gets that up a little. Let’s say 140 targets, 65% rate turns out to 91 catches. At 14 ypc (much lower than his last two seasons), that’s a pretty valuable season.
90/1275/8
That’s 266 ppr points which would have been good for 8th overall WR last season.
Is it really that far fetched given the teams landscape? Viable QB, prime aged receiver, funnel offense…these seem like very reasonable projections and would make him very underrated.
90/1275/8
That’s 266 ppr points which would have been good for 8th overall WR last season.
Is it really that far fetched given the teams landscape? Viable QB, prime aged receiver, funnel offense…these seem like very reasonable projections and would make him very underrated.
Hooper31
Footballguy
Seahawk homer here. Can't say I was heart-broken when they sent DK packing. There are both positives and negatives, but eventually we saw enough of the negatives. Most Seattle fans were glad to see him get a chance with anther team.
He's passionate. He will work hard. He'll block on running plays. He will run away from someone in a game. He will run over someone in a game.
He's got an immaturity thing that just hasn't gone away. He's going to get flagged for a personal foul to kill more than one drive. That's super frustrating. He won't make as many contested catches as you would like to see. His hands just aren't that great. He's going to fumble trying to run over someone. Again, he's passionate and will play hard, but I don't expect him to suddenly turn into a reliable fantasy scorer.
I wish him the best and hope he overcomes the maturity issues that plagued him while in Seattle.
He's passionate. He will work hard. He'll block on running plays. He will run away from someone in a game. He will run over someone in a game.
He's got an immaturity thing that just hasn't gone away. He's going to get flagged for a personal foul to kill more than one drive. That's super frustrating. He won't make as many contested catches as you would like to see. His hands just aren't that great. He's going to fumble trying to run over someone. Again, he's passionate and will play hard, but I don't expect him to suddenly turn into a reliable fantasy scorer.
I wish him the best and hope he overcomes the maturity issues that plagued him while in Seattle.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I agree with the gist of your point, but that doesn’t have much to do with how many targets he will get this year. I suspect this is why he’s underrated for fantasy this year.
I’d love to hear @menobrown thoughts.
DK Metcalf might look like a fantasy WR1 on paper, but don’t let the physique fool you. He just signed a massive five-year, $150 million deal with Pittsburgh a price tag that screams "elite," but the production says otherwise. His hands? Inconsistent. His catch rate has hovered in the "meh" zone for years, and he’s had more than a few drive-killing drops.
Let’s be real: Metcalf wasn’t even Seattle’s top receiver last season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba outshined him in route precision and reliability, and that’s likely why the Seahawks shipped Metcalf off. Now in Pittsburgh, he’s the lone standout in a thin WR room post George Pickens trade, which means defenses will key in on him hard.
Fantasy-wise, he’s not underrated. If anything, he’s a trap. His ADP is inflated by name recognition and highlight reels, not consistent output. Especially in leagues full of Pittsburgh homers, he’ll be over drafted by folks chasing nostalgia and Rodgers to Adams flashbacks. I’m steering clear there are better values with safer floors and higher ceilings.
Let’s be real: Metcalf wasn’t even Seattle’s top receiver last season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba outshined him in route precision and reliability, and that’s likely why the Seahawks shipped Metcalf off. Now in Pittsburgh, he’s the lone standout in a thin WR room post George Pickens trade, which means defenses will key in on him hard.
Fantasy-wise, he’s not underrated. If anything, he’s a trap. His ADP is inflated by name recognition and highlight reels, not consistent output. Especially in leagues full of Pittsburgh homers, he’ll be over drafted by folks chasing nostalgia and Rodgers to Adams flashbacks. I’m steering clear there are better values with safer floors and higher ceilings.
habsfan
Footballguy
He definitely has a tendency to make the impossible look easy and the easy look impossible. As a Seahawks fan, I would have traded both of those tendencies for more consistency.
I don't disagree with Hooper's assessment and I felt like one of the few Steeler's fan who was not fond of the trade.
From a fantasy angle he is going to be used differently then he was used the last two seasons in Seattle and most of his career, something that will look closer to his 2021 and 2022 type of usage. Ton's of volume and not deep threat stuff. From various camp reports I'm reading it sounds like he might have already lost a step, that he's not taking the top off or beating people deep with any kind of consistency to point the team is hoping Austin or Roman Wilson can do that. That's not so bad for fantasy purposes and I prefer volume anyway and his usage this year might make him look like the new slant king. It won't be Malik Nabers kind of usage and target share but in a 17 game season I think he can threaten his 141 career high target share and be among the top target share players in the league. If he plays 17 games I think he's got a really good shot of hitting 100 receptions. It just won't be for the 15 ypr stuff we saw a lot of his career, his career low in that regard was his 22 season at 11.6 and I think that's more the range.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Every off-season I spend some time on this guy. Every off season I'm convinced he is a slightly smaller Calvin Johnson. Dude is just a remarkable athlete. Has absolutely every physical tool to be a monster and Hall of Fame wr. You watch clips on him and your left convinced of his soon to be dominance. After the conclusion of every season im left wondering what went wrong. This cycle just repeats for me. At some point I need to break the continuous cycle. This year i jumped off.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Right I don’t disagree with the assessment of the player. The trade is what it is and so is the contract.
If it’s 90-100 catches at 12 yards a pop, that’s still 1100/1200 yards. And I’d imagine he’d be a focal point in the red zone. Double digit touchdowns seems well within the range of outcomes for him. Which, add it all up and we’re talking about a ~250 point season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Every year I think “this is the year DKM puts it all together!” I was all-in on that last year.
And it’s just never the year.
For FF he’s a rock solid WR2. Maybe. At least he should be. In PIT I have no idea what he’ll be.
I’ve read in various places he’s an ok route runner who improvises a lot. And I’ve read that ARod is a dude who demands precise route-running from his receivers, and likes to throw to a spot with anticipation that the receiver will be there.
Sounds like a rough combo, but I’ll wait and see. He’s a dude I have zero interest in for redraft this year, but yeah, 85/1000/7 sounds about right.
And it’s just never the year.
For FF he’s a rock solid WR2. Maybe. At least he should be. In PIT I have no idea what he’ll be.
I’ve read in various places he’s an ok route runner who improvises a lot. And I’ve read that ARod is a dude who demands precise route-running from his receivers, and likes to throw to a spot with anticipation that the receiver will be there.
Sounds like a rough combo, but I’ll wait and see. He’s a dude I have zero interest in for redraft this year, but yeah, 85/1000/7 sounds about right.
