WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (6 Viewers)

[rockaction]

Wow. Ok, play that hypothetical out. Based on the early rookie mocks, what do you do with those, and how is that better than having Gabriel Davis? 

Well, first of all you're talking draft capital. That means that the eleventh and twelfth picks of the rookie draft are likely to come from the first or second round of the NFL draft, which means you're going to wind up with a player who gets a really, really good shot at sticking around for the entirety of his rookie deal and will get a shot at playing time.

Davis is a fourth-rounder. Buffalo could cut him tomorrow and just be done with it given his draft positioning. There's not a ton invested in him like the 1.11 and 1.12 will have. That has to factor into one's thinking. You might say, well sure, he got his shot and he's ascending, but I can think of a bunch of guys that ascended and have fallen off the map (Darius Slayton and DJ Chark come to mind, both guys that finished twenty and thirty spaces respectively over Davis's year this year). 

By dynasty market value alone, the 1.11 and 1.12 picks are going to retain a value greater and longer than Davis alone by statistical probability of future success (citation needed). They'll get probably up to two years at market before any non-production makes their value dip (again, citation needed).

In addition, Davis was about WR55 this year and about the same last year. The probability or likelihood of him breaking out now -- even into the top 24 -- is slim (citation needed). 

Thirdly, you can leverage fungible capital for other players, which is a huge advantage in the offseason over holding a specific player. That allows you to address any needs your team has or acquire players you really want.

If that doesn't convince you, according to keeptradecut.com, the current market value for the 1.11 is 4544 value points. The 1.12 is 4200 value points. Gabriel Davis? 3500 value points according to the market. It's nearly a slam dunk in both fungibility and in value to take the picks here. 

I've left some citations needed. I'm trying to track down data on that stuff, but I'm winging this from memory. You want to play percentages and value and fungibility. The answer is in the 1.11 and 1.12, never mind three first-rounders. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Rock, did that value for Davis update yet?

 

[barackdhouse]

I use basically the same system as Hindery, just with my own ranks, and I had bumped Davis up to 12 franchise points (equivalent late 1st or early 2nd) in my sheet at the end of the regular season. It appeared to me he had taken over from Sanders, even when Sanders returned from injury. But still, that only put him around WR45 or so, so it isn't like I have really been that big on him, even recently. 

I just now looked at where Hindery had him for January, and it was right there in the low WR4 ranks at 10 points. Before writing this I figured to myself I will likely bump him up to l5 or 16 points, right in the middle of the WR3 ranks with Mooney, Ridley, a handful of others. Barely worth a 1st. I am just not sold on this class enough (yet) to take a 1st for him this year, which is why the question above about 1.11 plus 1.12 is a good one. 

I largely just don't expect much of a market because I think most people won't believe this to be an opportunity. It will take a 2023 1st to get him from me, or an equivalent RB/QB asset (in SF).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well, first of all you're talking draft capital. That means that the eleventh and twelfth picks of the rookie draft are likely to come from the first or second round of the NFL draft, which means you're going to wind up with a player who gets a really, really good shot at sticking around for the entirety of his rookie deal and will get a shot at playing time.

Davis is a fourth-rounder. Buffalo could cut him tomorrow and just be done with it given his draft positioning. There's not a ton invested in him like the 1.11 and 1.12 will have. That has to factor into one's thinking. You might say, well sure, he got his shot and he's ascending, but I can think of a bunch of guys that ascended and have fallen off the map (Darius Slayton and DJ Chark come to mind, both guys that finished twenty and thirty spaces respectively over Davis's year this year). 

By dynasty market value alone, the 1.11 and 1.12 picks are going to retain a value greater and longer than Davis alone by statistical probability of future success (citation needed). They'll get probably up to two years at market before any non-production makes their value dip (again, citation needed).

In addition, Davis was about WR55 this year and about the same last year. The probability or likelihood of him breaking out now -- even into the top 24 -- is slim (citation needed). 

Thirdly, you can leverage fungible capital for other players, which is a huge advantage in the offseason over holding a specific player. That allows you to address any needs your team has or acquire players you really want.

If that doesn't convince you, according to keeptradecut.com, the current market value for the 1.11 is 4544 value points. The 1.12 is 4200 value points. Gabriel Davis? 3500 value points according to the market. It's nearly a slam dunk in both fungibility and in value to take the picks here. 

I've left some citations needed. I'm trying to track down data on that stuff, but I'm winging this from memory. You want to play percentages and value and fungibility. The answer is in the 1.11 and 1.12, never mind three first-rounders. 

I remain unconvinced. Citing his WR55 disposition is a little bit disingenuous considering he only started seeing targets after the team gave up on an ineffective Manny Sanders. Might be more relevant to cite where he ranked from week ~12 on to get a better idea of his value.

Over the course of the season Pittman was a top 20 WR, but I’d rather have Davis than Pittman.

Due respect, but I find the argument of Davis’ 4th round draft capital as somewhat laughable. That has pretty much nothing to do with his present day value, nor does it give the Bills any incentive to cut him when their other WRs are 28 and older.

I’m not buying it, and I don’t believe that valuation you cited is accurate. Regardless that this is a time I feel a draft calc value is completely irrelevant. As I said previously - if you’ve got 2022 11 & 12, good luck getting a player with the potential upside of Davis there. If you’re dealing those picks to consolidate, now you’re praying the player you picked is as good as Davis, which I see as somewhat pointless. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I largely just don't expect much of a market because I think most people won't believe this to be an opportunity. It will take a 2023 1st to get him from me, or an equivalent RB/QB asset (in SF).

I wouldn’t sell for a ‘23 1st. Better to hold & hope the breakout is legit. 

 

[barackdhouse]

That means that the eleventh and twelfth picks of the rookie draft are likely to come from the first or second round of the NFL draft

I'm not sure that is going to be true this year. 

Davis is a fourth-rounder. Buffalo could cut him tomorrow and just be done with it given his draft positioning. There's not a ton invested in him like the 1.11 and 1.12 will have. That has to factor into one's thinking.

This isn't happening.

By dynasty market value alone, the 1.11 and 1.12 picks are going to retain a value greater and longer than Davis alone by statistical probability of future success (citation needed). They'll get probably up to two years at market before any non-production makes their value dip (again, citation needed).

I'll take a 22 yo with his production efficiency with Josh Allen over the historic 1.11/1.12 hit rate (to your point it isn't bad). And again I think this class will be a determining factor here. I usually *love* those late 1st picks but I am avoiding them like the plague if I can help them this year. But they may indeed hold more value. 

 

[barackdhouse]

If that doesn't convince you, according to keeptradecut.com, the current market value for the 1.11 is 4544 value points. The 1.12 is 4200 value points. Gabriel Davis? 3500 value points according to the market. It's nearly a slam dunk in both fungibility and in value to take the picks here. 

Hindery has Gabe Davis as 10 points in his system, or worth the 1.08 this year. And that is 3 weeks old data. But is a citation that shows it the other way. *shrugs* https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-dynasty-trade-value-january

There is a *ton* of variability in how much site A, B or C, or more importantly, FF opponent X, Y, Z, are going to value these 2022 draft picks. I think we will see a much lower floor in tradevalue than we've seen in a while.

Unless this class surprises us, and fast.

 

[GreenNGold]

I have no idea how to value him based on dynasty draft picks since I don't play dynasty, but Davis is going to be a clear WR2 with upside heading into next year's redrafts.  Personally, I'm going to be targeting Davis (for less auction dollars or a later round) instead of Diggs, and would not be surprised if he comes very close to Digg's production or even out-produces him next year.

 

[The Duff Man]

He led the Bills in TDs last year…as a rookie….over Diggs. Check out highlights, this guy has hands as good as anyone in the league. The best on the Bills imo.

He didn’t take another step forward for two reasons. The acquisition of Sanders, who Beane had been trying to get for several years, and the emergence of Knox who took end zone targets away as he was also making plays as a bigger target. 

It was plainly obvious to anyone watching that once Sanders got hurt and Davis got in their offense took a massive leap forward.  I think he is locked in as the #2 next year and will lead the team in TDs. 
 

None of this is commentary on his trade value, that is up to you. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'll take a 22 yo with his production efficiency with Josh Allen over the historic 1.11/1.12 hit rate (to your point it isn't bad). And again I think this class will be a determining factor here. I usually *love* those late 1st picks but I am avoiding them like the plague if I can help them this year. But they may indeed hold more value. 

I’m not a huge fan of anything past the projected top 10 this year. A lot of flawed players - speedy 1-note WRs, early down or scat backs, meh QBs who may or may not one day become an NFL starter. 

I have 3 RB, 4 WR, & 3 QB I like this year, and I’m really hoping my league scoops up the 3 QB early since I’m picking 8th. 

 

[BigJim®]

Well, first of all you're talking draft capital. That means that the eleventh and twelfth picks of the rookie draft are likely to come from the first or second round of the NFL draft, which means you're going to wind up with a player who gets a really, really good shot at sticking around for the entirety of his rookie deal and will get a shot at playing time.

There's been years where I loved 11/12 and others I wanted nothing to do with these picks. I'd need to read up on who would be available in 2022. It's not something I could generalize. I don't think it is always 1st/2nd round drafted players. Seems to me it's 3rd tier RB/WR, or 1st QB/TE.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He led the Bills in TDs last year…as a rookie….over Diggs. Check out highlights, this guy has hands as good as anyone in the league. The best on the Bills imo.

He didn’t take another stop forward for two reasons. The acquisition of Sanders, who Beane had been trying to get for several years, and the emergence of Knox who took end zone targets away as he was also making plays as a bigger target. 

It was plainly obvious to anyone watching that once Sanders got hurt and Davis got in their offense took a massive leap forward.  I think he is locked in as the #2 next year and will lead the team in TDs. 

That’s my gut feel as well.  It’s largely why I dealt for him - the addition of Sanders hurt his value as it relegated him to their 4th WR, and I tried (and succeeded) to capitalize on that to “buy low”) - I don’t think there’ll ever be a buy low opportunity for Davis again, and i agree he’s more likely to be a 1a to Diggs than a true WR2.

at his age and in his situation, unless you’re coming at me with a top 3 pick in 2022 & 2023 I’m not even considering it. 

 

[BigJim®]

He didn’t take another step forward for two reasons. The acquisition of Sanders, who Beane had been trying to get for several years, and the emergence of Knox who took end zone targets away as he was also making plays as a bigger target. 

It was plainly obvious to anyone watching that once Sanders got hurt and Davis got in their offense took a massive leap forward.  I think he is locked in as the #2 next year and will lead the team in TDs. 

In fairness, I was pretty impressed with E Sanders in the games I watched. Hard to second guess him being very involved.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There's been years where I loved 11/12 and others I wanted nothing to do with these picks. I'd need to read up on who would be available in 2022. It's not something I could generalize. I don't think it is always 1st/2nd round drafted players. Seems to me it's 3rd tier RB/WR, or 1st QB/TE.

This year’s NFL draft will be interesting. The 3 top projected dynasty RBs might not be 1st round NFL picks. That’s no knock on the players (though non are the second coming oF Walter Peyton) it’s just how the NFL has been trending the last few years.

I could easily see Spiller or Hall as one of the picks 1-3 even in superflex this year, yet still get taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. I’m a little less sold on Walker,  personally, but he’s another guy who could fall to the mid-2nd or Later yet still be a top 6 pick in rookie drafts.

The top 3 WRs should all be 1st round selections in the real NFL draft, and I could see all 3 going in the top 9 picks. Depends on who your top 3 are. Personally I like Wilson almost equally to Burks, and I like London over Bell for his size/high point ability & ridiculous production before he got hurt. I’ve seen various mocks with each of them all over the map. 

But yeah - just due to the nature of the NFL draft, RBs will be taken later in the NFL than they are in FF. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In fairness, I was pretty impressed with E Sanders in the games I watched. Hard to second guess him being very involved.

He faded badly after a promising 2 game sample.

Davis is a TD machine when he’s in the lineup.

 

[BigJim®]

He faded badly after a promising 2 game sample.

Davis is a TD machine when he’s in the lineup.

Yeah, checking his stats on ESPN is eye opening... think one of the games I saw was one of the 2TD games, and another where he got a lot of targets. I definitely agree Davis has a lot more to offer than the opportunities they gave him in 2021. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Talking about where he ranked in the stats this year is not real helpful.  He is 22.  He is younger than Devonta Smith for example.  Maybe some time learning the NFL game and the Bill's system just might allow him to shine.  That and both Sanders and Beasley are quality veteran players but getting older and older.

He looks the part.  Anything can happen with development but he does look like he can be a high end guy.  Not a super stud but semi stud.

 

[BigJim®]

He looks the part.  Anything can happen with development but he does look like he can be a high end guy.  Not a super stud but semi stud.

With Josh Allen throwing to him, I think all you need to be is semi stud to produce like a super stud.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He looks the part.  Anything can happen with development but he does look like he can be a high end guy.  Not a super stud but semi stud.

I’ll add that even if “semi stud” is his ceiling, the fact that Allen is his QB bumps him above other “semi-studs” if I’m ranking young upside receivers.

I have Higgins, Pittman & Davis. Pittman might be the most physically gifted of the 3, but his lack of a stud QB puts his value behind the other 2 in my eyes. 

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, these are all good points, but it seems people are coming at me with anecdotal evidence on faulty premises (vacated targets, opportunity) whereas the statistics I'm about to drop show that you'd see historical probability outweighs the likelihood of Davis even being a thing. 

According to this article, a fourth rounder has a 4% chance of averaging 9 PPG in .5 PPR for their career. The hit rate for first and second rounders is 42% and 38%. That's the range where we'll see the 1.11 and the 1.12.  As a matter of fact, since 2014, only one fourth-rounder has secured a top 24 finish. Those are long odds. More hit rates based on draft capital here. Fourth-rounders just don't hit very often, and Davis hasn't yet. 

If that's not enough, here's data from 2001. Still grim. 

Which leads me to the third year breakout potential. I'd start with this primer

From the article

"Some simple math tells us that a whopping 64 percent of wide receivers who will reach that 150-point mark at some point in their career have hit it by the end of their second season. An astounding 82 percent have by the end of their third season and 92 percent by the end of their fourth season.

What does it all mean? Two things come to mind:

1. Year 2 appears to be the more accurate "breakout" year for wide receivers.

2. If a wide receiver hasn't broken out by the end of his third season, he's a long shot to ever reach fantasy relevance. And if he doesn't by the end of his fourth season, you can all but cut bait." 

Yes, it's certainly within the realm of reason that Davis will hit good numbers, but they're not even remotely as good as one of the two picks you hold hitting that threshold. It's not even close. Only eighteen percent of guys breakout in their third year, never mind fourth-round draft picks, who hit at a notoriously low rate. 

Probability and history tell you to take the picks. 

 

[GreenNGold]

Davis is already a thing. 

 

[rockaction]

He finished WR59 this year. 

That's a thing? 

 

[rockaction]

Look, he does have a young age going for him. He has a good breakout age in college. But he has no real draft capital, an athletic profile Player Profiler compares to Zach Pascal, among other things. It's not really that impressive. Not as impressive as the 1.11 and 1.12. 

And to turn down three first-round picks? That's just...I'm not sure we've thought this through. 

 

[rockaction]

Anyway, I'm happy to take any rebuttals but I'd take that deal in a heartbeat and cinch it with a nice pretty ribbon. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Davis is already a thing. 

You beat me to it. 

All the historical data fails when talking about a player who's already beat the historical odds. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He finished WR59 this year. 

That's a thing? 

He wasn't a starter until the team lost faith in Sanders (and Sanders got hurt) - after that he put up some pretty solid stats that you might want to take a look at as a sample size. IIRC he was better than quite a few on that list of 58 others down the stretch. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anyway, I'm happy to take any rebuttals but I'd take that deal in a heartbeat and cinch it with a nice pretty ribbon. 

To each their own. I certainly would not want 1.11 and 1.12 this year for Davis. Not a chance. Though if it were a top 7 this year & top 7 next I'd consider it. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Look, he does have a young age going for him. He has a good breakout age in college. But he has no real draft capital, an athletic profile Player Profiler compares to Zach Pascal, among other things. It's not really that impressive. Not as impressive as the 1.11 and 1.12. 

The 1.11 & 1.12 this year might be equivalent to the 2.07-2.08 next year though. It's not expected to be a deep draft class. I think that's where there's a little disconnect. 

And to turn down three first-round picks? That's just...I'm not sure we've thought this through. 

That was me being hyperbolic as an elated Davis owner who bought at either a low or fair price, depending on how much you like my early season trade this year. 

But It definitely depends on which 3. If it's 2x late 1sts this year (11-12) and a late 1st next? Yeah, Imma have to think it over.  

 

[ghostguy123]

Yeah, these are all good points, but it seems people are coming at me with anecdotal evidence on faulty premises (vacated targets, opportunity) whereas the statistics I'm about to drop show that you'd see historical probability outweighs the likelihood of Davis even being a thing. 

According to this article, a fourth rounder has a 4% chance of averaging 9 PPG in .5 PPR for their career. The hit rate for first and second rounders is 42% and 38%. That's the range where we'll see the 1.11 and the 1.12.  As a matter of fact, since 2014, only one fourth-rounder has secured a top 24 finish. Those are long odds. More hit rates based on draft capital here. Fourth-rounders just don't hit very often, and Davis hasn't yet. 

If that's not enough, here's data from 2001. Still grim. 

Which leads me to the third year breakout potential. I'd start with this primer

From the article

"Some simple math tells us that a whopping 64 percent of wide receivers who will reach that 150-point mark at some point in their career have hit it by the end of their second season. An astounding 82 percent have by the end of their third season and 92 percent by the end of their fourth season.

What does it all mean? Two things come to mind:

1. Year 2 appears to be the more accurate "breakout" year for wide receivers.

2. If a wide receiver hasn't broken out by the end of his third season, he's a long shot to ever reach fantasy relevance. And if he doesn't by the end of his fourth season, you can all but cut bait." 

Yes, it's certainly within the realm of reason that Davis will hit good numbers, but they're not even remotely as good as one of the two picks you hold hitting that threshold. It's not even close. Only eighteen percent of guys breakout in their third year, never mind fourth-round draft picks, who hit at a notoriously low rate. 

Probability and history tell you to take the picks. 

He came into the league young.  He is 22.  Younger than both Waddle and Devonta Smith.

What's more of a faulty premise, your points about draft position 2 years after the fact when we just saw improvement then a historic game, or watching a guy play for two years knowing he is young and had excellent vets ahead of him?

He is no sure thing, but get that 4th round draft position nonsense outta here.  That mattered two years ago.

 

[rockaction]

He came into the league young.  He is 22.  Younger than both Waddle and Devonta Smith.

What's more of a faulty premise, your points about draft position 2 years after the fact when we just saw improvement then a historic game, or watching a guy play for two years knowing he is young and had excellent vets ahead of him?

He is no sure thing, but get that 4th round draft position nonsense outta here.  That mattered two years ago.

Okey dokey. I don't know what to tell you. I'd play the odds. He hasn't done much through two years. They brought in Emmanuel Sanders over him when they had him. What does that tell you about their player evaluation? He's the 128th pick of the 2020 draft. His athletic profile is slightly above average. But you're telling me that draft capital is "nonsense" in considering his status. I don't think he's proved anything yet. 

Reasonable minds can disagree. I see a lot of love for a guy that's done very little but have a huge, huge game in prime time in single coverage. 

 

[BigJim®]

Yeah, these are all good points, but it seems people are coming at me with anecdotal evidence on faulty premises (vacated targets, opportunity) whereas the statistics I'm about to drop show that you'd see historical probability outweighs the likelihood of Davis even being a thing. 

According to this article, a fourth rounder has a 4% chance of averaging 9 PPG in .5 PPR for their career. The hit rate for first and second rounders is 42% and 38%. That's the range where we'll see the 1.11 and the 1.12.  As a matter of fact, since 2014, only one fourth-rounder has secured a top 24 finish. Those are long odds. More hit rates based on draft capital here. Fourth-rounders just don't hit very often, and Davis hasn't yet. 

If that's not enough, here's data from 2001. Still grim. 

Which leads me to the third year breakout potential. I'd start with this primer

From the article

"Some simple math tells us that a whopping 64 percent of wide receivers who will reach that 150-point mark at some point in their career have hit it by the end of their second season. An astounding 82 percent have by the end of their third season and 92 percent by the end of their fourth season.

What does it all mean? Two things come to mind:

1. Year 2 appears to be the more accurate "breakout" year for wide receivers.

2. If a wide receiver hasn't broken out by the end of his third season, he's a long shot to ever reach fantasy relevance. And if he doesn't by the end of his fourth season, you can all but cut bait." 

Yes, it's certainly within the realm of reason that Davis will hit good numbers, but they're not even remotely as good as one of the two picks you hold hitting that threshold. It's not even close. Only eighteen percent of guys breakout in their third year, never mind fourth-round draft picks, who hit at a notoriously low rate. 

Probability and history tell you to take the picks. 

200 yards, 4 TDs. On a big playoff stage. I’m not saying this to be harsh, but why should historic statistical values matter more than that? What do your statistics say were odds of a 4th round WR scoring 7 TDs as a rookie?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

200 yards, 4 TDs. On a big playoff stage. I’m not saying this to be harsh, but why should historic statistical values matter more than that? What do your statistics say were odds of a 4th round WR scoring 8 TDs as a rookie?

Not to mention the 4th was a clutch (what shoulda been game-winning) TD on 4th and 13 with 15 seconds left in regulation. I mean, how many 4th rounders have done that?

 

[rockaction]

I would say to hang on or go acquire him, then. 

 

[The Duff Man]

They were trying to get Sanders for years, you can Google Beane talking about this. They also entered the playoffs last year with Beasley playing on a broken leg and Diggs had a torn oblique so I can’t fault them for wanting depth.  I don’t see either of these as a reflection on their evaluation of Davis. 

Diggs is going to eat targets. But I can see Davis getting 90 next year, which is a little more than what Sanders might have seen if healthy and productive. I can see him putting up around 1000 yards and 10 TDs. 

 

[ghostguy123]

They brought in Emmanuel Sanders over him when they had him. What does that tell you about their player evaluation?

Tells me they like to sign good players.  What does it tell YOU??

I guess the packers must have thought Rodgers was no good since they drafted Love.

What a weird argument. 

 

[rockaction]

Tells me they like to sign good players.  What does it tell YOU??

I guess the packers must have thought Rodgers was no good since they drafted Love.

What a weird argument. 

This argument is even weirder. Did Love start 3/4 quarters of the games the Packers played and then get hurt? 

 

[ghostguy123]

Obviously you take any three 1sts over Davis.

I can see either way taking 11/12 or Davis.  I asked because when people say "two firsts" they really need to specify.  11 and 12 is a far cry from 5 and a future 1st

 

[ghostguy123]

This argument is even weirder. Did Love start 3/4 quarters of the games the Packers played and then get hurt? 

Did Sanders bust out 200 and 4 TDs in the biggest game in the last 20 years in Buffalo?  

Young guys have vets ahead of them quite frequently in the NFL.  Especially on the top teams

 

[rockaction]

You guys keep falling back on 200 yards and 4 TDs. That's great! Roster him if you believe! His breakout age in college was good. He's got like an eighteen percent chance of hitting with his breakout age and his draft capital. So maybe he's the 18%. But the 1.11 and 1.12 have a better chance of hitting. By far. 

 

[ghostguy123]

You guys keep falling back on 200 yards and 4 TDs. That's great! Roster him if you believe! His breakout age in college was good. He's got like an eighteen percent chance of hitting with his breakout age and his draft capital. So maybe he's the 18%. But the 1.11 and 1.12 have a better chance of hitting. By far. 

Excellent.

 

[rockaction]

Obviously you take any three 1sts over Davis.

I can see either way taking 11/12 or Davis.  I asked because when people say "two firsts" they really need to specify.  11 and 12 is a far cry from 5 and a future 1st

This is very true. I think I realized it was a thought exercise as I read the thread. The scenarios of which picks one receives is truly different. I'd still take those 11 and 12 picks. Everybody's mileage may vary. 

And, hey, just like when I saw overwhelming evidence of an unlikely event at RB (CEH being a quality fantasy producer for his rookie and startup ADP), so it is with Davis. I usually don't go out on limbs, but this one has red flags all over it. 

And yet he passes the eye test and I could be very wrong. We'll see. I'd just stay away from the red flags if I had the opportunity to cash in like the 11 and 12 would allow. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Reasonable minds can disagree. I see a lot of love for a guy that's done very little but have a huge, huge game in prime time in single coverage. 

Yes, reasonable minds can. This is like 62% reasonable. lol 

Allow me to present Gabe "8 TDs his rookie year" Davis' list of 2021 games where his statistical output seems well beyond the average 4th round WR, and the average 22 y/o:

Week 8,  4/5 for 29/1

Week 13 he only had 2/4 for 30/1

Week 14, 5/8 for 43/1

Week 15, 5/7 for 85/2 TDs

Week 18, 2/5 for 40/1

Wildcard round he went 2/3 for 41/1

And then there's the huge huge game in prime time. Which, worth mentioning, was 8/10 for 201/4 

So it's not like he did nothing all year and had 1 good game.  For a dude who wasn't high volume, in those 5 games not including the playoffs he was 18/29 for 224/5, as the 4th WR on that team with a breakout Knox hoovering up short targets. 

Now, I realize this is flawed analysis because I did absolutely cherry pick his best 5 games. But he also only started 4 games this year & had a bunch of games with 2-4 targets.

So assuming Sanders departure, and Davis moving up in the pecking order next year, is 65/750/10 out of the question? Sanders vacates 72 targets. If 40% of those roll over to Davis that's ~29 more target? Beasley had 112 targets this year. Surely at 33 some of those targets might also roll over to Davis, no? (and stop calling me Shirley?) While we're on the subject, Beasley had 82 receptions on 112 targets, yet only put up 693/1

Davis seems like an awfully nice asset to hold in dynasty due to the circumstances, and I disagree that he's only had 1 incredible game.  Gimme 8 targets a game for Davis, and I'll show you an 88 catch, 1381 (based on career ave) receiver with a nose for the end zone (13 TDs in 35 games played)

A more conservative approach might be to lose all this guesswork and just look at his (regular season) career stats:

70/125 for 1148 & 13 TDs

this doesn’t even include his 5 playoff TDs this year. 

He's 22. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

FWIW, SI agrees with ya, Rock: Sell Fast, Sell High After Huge Game From Gabriel Davis

Dynasty managers should heed the TLC lyric, 'Don't go chasing waterfalls.'

While the sports media, the Twitterverse and your mother’s uncle are all talking about the controversial result of the NFL’s overtime rules, dynasty managers are looking at the jaw-dropping performance of Buffalo Bills WR Gabriel Davis in the divisional round as an opportunity.

The former UCF standout and fourth-rounder from the 2020 NFL Draft, Davis collected eight receptions for 201 yards and an NFL postseason record four touchdowns on 10 targets. A popular preseason sleeper pick, Davis fell well short of those expectations during the 2021 regular season. He finished the year as fantasy’s WR58 with 35 receptions for 549 yards and six touchdowns on 63 targets—nearly identical to his 2020 total of 35 receptions for 599 yards with seven touchdowns on 62 targets. It’s funny—or tragic—how the same stats can be a promising rookie campaign and also be an underwhelming letdown in Year 2. So then, how do we evaluate Davis heading into 2022 and beyond?

First, let’s add some proper context of just how good this game was for him. In the regular season, he finished with 125.9 PPR points. In this divisional matchup, he scored 52.1 PPR pts, or more precisely, Davis scored just over 41% of his season total in a single game. Given Davis’s WR58 finish, he’d have likely been the fifth- or sixth-best receiver on your dynasty squad. Even in a relatively deep league with big starting lineup requirements, he was at best a flex consideration where you’re looking to play the matchups.

There are a lot of guys in this murky in-between place in fantasy football and what it boils down to for me is whether I would even start a guy if the matchup made sense. Receivers already tend to be a bit streaky. Even guys like Tyreek Hill can put up a few stinkers before making up for it with a monster stat line seemingly out of the blue. But what we know about Hill is that he’s good to make us whole because it’s inevitable that he will provide that impact performance. Davis? Yeah, not so much.

If we’re going by snaps played through the divisional round, Davis finished fourth among his position group. Stefon Diggs (1,066 snaps), Emmanuel Sanders (790) and Cole Beasley (738) all out-snapped Davis (664). Sanders also missed three games (Weeks 15, 17 and 18). From Weeks 1-13, Davis never played more than 52% of snaps. In Weeks 14-20—six games total since he did not play in Week 16—Davis did see a big jump in playing time with Sanders out and there were some promising numbers as a result. He provided 5/43/1, 5/85/2, 3/40, 3/39, 2/41/1 and of course, 8/201/4. Let’s get even more hypothetical and exclude the Week 20 outlier game and focus on the first five. If we take those first five games and extrapolate them out to a full season: 61.2 receptions for 843.2 yards and 13.6 touchdowns. That’s 227 PPR points, putting him up there with Amon-Ra St. Brown, just outside the top-20 scoring WRs from this season. Let’s cut those touchdowns in half, down to 6.8, since that TD total is a bit far-fetched. That would give him 186.3 PPR points—still mighty respectable and within the top-30 wideouts, just ahead of DeVonta Smith.

Now, I disagree with this take, but I'll note that he also did some of the same schtick by playing fast an loose with the numbers as I did. 

What he fails to note is the departure of Sanders and age of Beasley. IMO those are highly relevant. 

 

[rockaction]

His age is a draw, that's for sure. I won't dispute that. 

He actually had a better year in 2020. He started 11 games as a rookie that year, and they were so blown away they brought in Sanders to start over him. Which he did. 

He was WR60 in 2020 and WR59 in 2021

I think we've bandied about our reasons. Go out and act on them if you believe. 

 

[rockaction]

FWIW, SI agrees with ya, Rock: Sell Fast, Sell High After Huge Game From Gabriel Davis

Now, I disagree with this take, but I'll note that he also did some of the same schtick by playing fast an loose with the numbers as I did. 

What he fails to note is the departure of Sanders and age of Beasley. IMO those are highly relevant. 

I saw that and read it. I wasn't impressed, just like you weren't. Not convincing. I think the historical data and actual performance is more telling. Not that he's locked into to anything. He could explode like Diggs once did coming from the fifth round. So who knows? It's the likelihood of the 1.11 and 1.12 missing while he hits that causes me to take the position I take. I don't hate the player at all. In fact, I quite enjoyed watching him play down the stretch and thought he should start. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

His age is a draw, that's for sure. I won't dispute that. 

He actually had a better year in 2020. He started 11 games as a rookie that year, and they were so blown away they brought in Sanders to start over him. Which he did. 

Again, you misrepresent this as causal. I disagree that is the case. They got Sanders because they wanted Sanders. 

 

[rockaction]

Again, you misrepresent this as causal. I disagree that is the case. They got Sanders because they wanted Sanders. 

Okay. That's plausible. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's the likelihood of the 1.11 and 1.12 missing while he hits that causes me to take the position I take. I don't hate the player at all. In fact, I quite enjoyed watching him play down the stretch and thought he should start. 

In this draft, I don't like your chances of hitting on the 1.11 and 1.12. I like your chances slightly better of hitting on one of them. 

So now you're trading Davis for one of them hitting. Still worth it? 

Hypothetically of course. This is all a thought experiment at this point, as you said. We don't know what teams will draft which players, so it's all pretty loose.  

 

[BigJim®]

“You guys go ahead and trust meaningless things like your eyes and actual production. I’ll stick with statistical projections based on every historic player who was not this player.”

 

[rockaction]

“You guys go ahead and trust meaningless things like your eyes and actual production. I’ll stick with statistical projections based on every historic player who was not this player.”

I'm going to trust my eyes with that ### tat staring me in the face?