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WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (3 Viewers)

He will never, ever be worth a 2024 1st again, if he ever was.
That’s one opinion.

Must be nice to be psychic. I see it as on the range of realistic outcomes, myself.

Again - if the Bills bring in a WR, that changes things.

But folks here are saying early 2nd. So a hot start and we’re talking 3-4 spots up?

Yeah - he could easily be worth a 1st again. Dude’s 24 and in a great situation (at the moment).
 
He will never, ever be worth a 2024 1st again, if he ever was.
What if he scored 3 TDs (total) in the first two games?
I mean I’m mostly on your side if speaking how he’s valued now - but the reason to hold is there is some upside still. I also think his boom/bust nature (which needs more boom) isn’t bad for a WR3.
 
He will never, ever be worth a 2024 1st again, if he ever was.
What if he scored 3 TDs (total) in the first two games?
I mean I’m mostly on your side if speaking how he’s valued now - but the reason to hold is there is some upside still. I also think his boom/bust nature (which needs more boom) isn’t bad for a WR3.
Even if it’s 3 in 3 games, or 3 in 4 game with say, 5-6 targets in each, he should bounce back to FF WR2 value.

IMO the consistency of targets would give him more value than the TDs, since the knock has been inefficiency & lack of substantial targets.

I just think it’s a little silly to write off the potential of a still very young WR who’s in a good situation.

If his situation changes, I’ll reevaluate that opinion.
 
For the record, I said I would sell for an early 2nd. That doesn't mean I'm saying that's where his market value is/isn't. I acknowledge it definitely isn't that high. I have a Telecaster I'd sell for ~$800 which is a small bit of a loss but I kind of want to move on from it, whereas I have a crappy acoustic that I honestly don't think a pawn shop would take, unless for $20 as pity. But my dad bought it for me and I wouldn't sell it for $5000.

There are regularly players in this FF hobby that we value more than the market - doesn't mean we're claiming they're actually worth that much. My acoustic is truly not worth more than maybe $20-40. It's beat to hell and back (still plays and sounds good though).
 
I'm not really stating an opinion, just go to KTC and look at the values. Say what you will about their usage and methodology, but the values are updated in real time.
 
I'm not really stating an opinion, just go to KTC and look at the values. Say what you will about their usage and methodology, but the values are updated in real time.
Not sure I'm understanding this argument. Are you saying no matter what he does this season (say he has 1200+ 9 TDs), he wouldn't be worth a 1st?
Your statement was "He will never, ever be worth a 2024 1st again, if he ever was." I think if he has a great season he'll be worth a 1st easily.

Now I highly doubt he'll reach that value, but it's certainly not impossible which you are suggesting.
 
I'm not really stating an opinion, just go to KTC and look at the values. Say what you will about their usage and methodology, but the values are updated in real time.
Not sure I'm understanding this argument. Are you saying no matter what he does this season (say he has 1200+ 9 TDs), he wouldn't be worth a 1st?
Your statement was "He will never, ever be worth a 2024 1st again, if he ever was." I think if he has a great season he'll be worth a 1st easily.

Now I highly doubt he'll reach that value, but it's certainly not impossible which you are suggesting.
He will, in all probability, never reach that value, and the chances of him ever having a NFL season with 1200+ 9 TDs is so small as to be considered zero.

Does that help you understand my argument?
 
I offered 1.10 for 2.05 and Gabe Davis and was rejected.
That's an easy accept.

Gabe owners have to be the most stubborn fantasy players out there and it's not even close.
I, and 2 others, just said we’d smash accept.

So 3/4 of Gabe owners we know of would have taken that deal.

Why do non-Davis owners insist on these sweeping hater generalizations? It comes off as weird and obsessive.
 
As hard as it was at the time, I sold him after his SB performance for a 2023 1st. I am usually on the other end of those kind of “momentum” trades. I do think he has some upside from what he showed last year, but not enough confidence in him to go fishing for it.
 
I offered 1.10 for 2.05 and Gabe Davis and was rejected.
That's an easy accept.

Gabe owners have to be the most stubborn fantasy players out there and it's not even close.
I, and 2 others, just said we’d smash accept.

So 3/4 of Gabe owners we know of would have taken that deal.

Why do non-Davis owners insist on these sweeping hater generalizations? It comes off as weird and obsessive.
I'm a Davis owner too. Just a realistic one who didn't let the hype go off the charts last preseason. From looking back on this thread, it was pretty weird and obsessive hype followed by many excuses.

But we'll see how he does this year. I'm not expecting much.
 
Is D Hop to Buffalo dead? Sounded like they were in talks but not enough compensation on draft night to get it done. Maybe Buffalo offers more now since they didn't get a WR in the draft like they wanted?

Allen+Diggs+Hopkins+Kincaid would be insane. Gabe would be a fantastic 3rd WR that could stretch the field.
 
I'm a Davis owner too. Just a realistic one who didn't let the hype go off the charts last preseason. From looking back on this thread, it was pretty weird and obsessive hype followed by many excuses.

But we'll see how he does this year. I'm not expecting much.
Once again, I got him as a toss in in one league and a 1:1 for James Robinson early last year. I’m less invested in him than almost everyone here.

And I was absolutely in love with his potential last year. And I would take that trade without hesitation.

You just said that Davis owners are “the most stubborn fantasy players” because 1 that we know of wouldn’t take that trade.

It’s a strange generalization to make and has nothing to do with whether you’re a realistic Davis owner or not.
 
Is D Hop to Buffalo dead? Sounded like they were in talks but not enough compensation on draft night to get it done. Maybe Buffalo offers more now since they didn't get a WR in the draft like they wanted?

Allen+Diggs+Hopkins+Kincaid would be insane. Gabe would be a fantastic 3rd WR that could stretch the field.
No idea. I’ve heard no updates, and it always sounded like media speculation to me rather than anyhing from the teams.

Everything I see from the Bills is that they still like Davis, and believe he has a bright future. He’s a willing blocker, and played through injury. And he’s just 24.

Folks want to dismiss that as coachspeak or GMspeak, but they sound just like they did before last year. Just because the FF community wasn’t happy with him doesn’t mean the team isn’t.

We’ll know how real that is when game 1 is kicking off. If Davis is starting opposite Diggs, there ya go. If he isn’t, he’s probably off the FF radar.
 
I feel like he's a fantastic value at this point.
He's going at an ADP of #77 on Underdog. Good for around WR42.

He didn't live up to expectations last season. But he wasn't THAT bad. He was injured for part of the season. He still put up 836 and 7 in 15 games. His 17 game numbers would have been about 950 and 8.

Even just considering the 15 games--he was WR27 in 1/2 PPR Formats.
He was WR34 in PPR formats.

He's 24 years old. He'll have another year of experience under his belt. He'll be healthy going into the season. There's a good chance he's Josh Allen's second most targeted player.

He should absolute beat his ADP.
 
I feel like he's a fantastic value at this point.
He's going at an ADP of #77 on Underdog. Good for around WR42.

He didn't live up to expectations last season. But he wasn't THAT bad. He was injured for part of the season. He still put up 836 and 7 in 15 games. His 17 game numbers would have been about 950 and 8.

Even just considering the 15 games--he was WR27 in 1/2 PPR Formats.
He was WR34 in PPR formats.

He's 24 years old. He'll have another year of experience under his belt. He'll be healthy going into the season. There's a good chance he's Josh Allen's second most targeted player.

He should absolute beat his ADP.
I feel that opposite forces are working against him. I think they pass more to the RBs this year, I think they drafted Kincaid for a reason and will incorporate him, and I think Shakir still has a chance to garner more looks. Outside of Diggs going cookoo, I don’t see a reason to be too excited about Gabe.
 
I feel like he's a fantastic value at this point.
He's going at an ADP of #77 on Underdog. Good for around WR42.

He didn't live up to expectations last season. But he wasn't THAT bad. He was injured for part of the season. He still put up 836 and 7 in 15 games. His 17 game numbers would have been about 950 and 8.

Even just considering the 15 games--he was WR27 in 1/2 PPR Formats.
He was WR34 in PPR formats.

He's 24 years old. He'll have another year of experience under his belt. He'll be healthy going into the season. There's a good chance he's Josh Allen's second most targeted player.

He should absolute beat his ADP.
I feel that opposite forces are working against him. I think they pass more to the RBs this year, I think they drafted Kincaid for a reason and will incorporate him, and I think Shakir still has a chance to garner more looks. Outside of Diggs going cookoo, I don’t see a reason to be too excited about Gabe.
Diggs had 150 targets last year. Gabe was still getting over 6 targets per game.

I think a lot of the "Bills want to pass to the RB's more" is an attempt to keep Allen from taking hits in the running game. I think those dump offs eat into Allen's rushing. Maybe they compete with what Kincaid is doing. I'm not sure the RB's are taking touches that would go to Davis. You've got one of the best QB's in the league. I have a hard time thinking they're going to reduce the offense to a combination of QB runs and RB dump offs.

Long term, I certainly think Kincaid becomes the #2--maybe even the #1 option in the passing game. Rookie TE's notoriously don't produce huge numbers. Kincaid may be the exception. I'll certainly take some flyers on the guy. But I'm not sure he's going to be the reason Gabe doesn't success this year. It sounds like they're looking to use him in the slot a lot. Which would leave Davis on the outside working for deep balls.

Shakir--I like the guy as a late round flier in best ball. But if we're saying he showed enough to eat into Gabes prodution--did Gabe not show a lot last year in his own right?
 
I feel like he's a fantastic value at this point.
He's going at an ADP of #77 on Underdog. Good for around WR42.

He didn't live up to expectations last season. But he wasn't THAT bad. He was injured for part of the season. He still put up 836 and 7 in 15 games. His 17 game numbers would have been about 950 and 8.

Even just considering the 15 games--he was WR27 in 1/2 PPR Formats.
He was WR34 in PPR formats.

He's 24 years old. He'll have another year of experience under his belt. He'll be healthy going into the season. There's a good chance he's Josh Allen's second most targeted player.

He should absolute beat his ADP.
I feel that opposite forces are working against him. I think they pass more to the RBs this year, I think they drafted Kincaid for a reason and will incorporate him, and I think Shakir still has a chance to garner more looks. Outside of Diggs going cookoo, I don’t see a reason to be too excited about Gabe.
Diggs had 150 targets last year. Gabe was still getting over 6 targets per game.

I think a lot of the "Bills want to pass to the RB's more" is an attempt to keep Allen from taking hits in the running game. I think those dump offs eat into Allen's rushing. Maybe they compete with what Kincaid is doing. I'm not sure the RB's are taking touches that would go to Davis. You've got one of the best QB's in the league. I have a hard time thinking they're going to reduce the offense to a combination of QB runs and RB dump offs.

Long term, I certainly think Kincaid becomes the #2--maybe even the #1 option in the passing game. Rookie TE's notoriously don't produce huge numbers. Kincaid may be the exception. I'll certainly take some flyers on the guy. But I'm not sure he's going to be the reason Gabe doesn't success this year. It sounds like they're looking to use him in the slot a lot. Which would leave Davis on the outside working for deep balls.

Shakir--I like the guy as a late round flier in best ball. But if we're saying he showed enough to eat into Gabes prodution--did Gabe not show a lot last year in his own right?
Good question, did he? I admit, I am higher on Shakir and lower on Gabe than the majority.
 
I feel like he's a fantastic value at this point.
He's going at an ADP of #77 on Underdog. Good for around WR42.

He didn't live up to expectations last season. But he wasn't THAT bad. He was injured for part of the season. He still put up 836 and 7 in 15 games. His 17 game numbers would have been about 950 and 8.

Even just considering the 15 games--he was WR27 in 1/2 PPR Formats.
He was WR34 in PPR formats.

He's 24 years old. He'll have another year of experience under his belt. He'll be healthy going into the season. There's a good chance he's Josh Allen's second most targeted player.

He should absolute beat his ADP.
I feel that opposite forces are working against him. I think they pass more to the RBs this year, I think they drafted Kincaid for a reason and will incorporate him, and I think Shakir still has a chance to garner more looks. Outside of Diggs going cookoo, I don’t see a reason to be too excited about Gabe.
Diggs had 150 targets last year. Gabe was still getting over 6 targets per game.

I think a lot of the "Bills want to pass to the RB's more" is an attempt to keep Allen from taking hits in the running game. I think those dump offs eat into Allen's rushing. Maybe they compete with what Kincaid is doing. I'm not sure the RB's are taking touches that would go to Davis. You've got one of the best QB's in the league. I have a hard time thinking they're going to reduce the offense to a combination of QB runs and RB dump offs.

Long term, I certainly think Kincaid becomes the #2--maybe even the #1 option in the passing game. Rookie TE's notoriously don't produce huge numbers. Kincaid may be the exception. I'll certainly take some flyers on the guy. But I'm not sure he's going to be the reason Gabe doesn't success this year. It sounds like they're looking to use him in the slot a lot. Which would leave Davis on the outside working for deep balls.

Shakir--I like the guy as a late round flier in best ball. But if we're saying he showed enough to eat into Gabes prodution--did Gabe not show a lot last year in his own right?

Good analysis here

I own quite a few stakes in the bills offense but something about it worries me this year. Maybe it was the fall off coming out of last season, might be that when i watch allen play i just feel like that offense is not sustainable. I don't know...something bugs me though
 
Played golf with Gabe here in Orlando Friday. This Diggs stuff has had a positive effect on his relationship with Josh. Shakir is not a factor here and I completely agree with the Kincaid/RB catches competing with each other rather than Davis. Josh will run less this year, but nothing drastic generally...more so less short yardage carries <--- all IMO based on conversation. Fully convinced Gabe outperforms ADP, which is SO cheap. Great late rd target
 
Good question, did he? I admit, I am higher on Shakir and lower on Gabe than the majority.
He looked solid before the high ankle sprain, which reportedly derailed his season for months.

if he can avoid injury there could be a big season coming. He’s the clear WR2, and as I understand it Shakir might lose his role to Sherfield, who had a great camp, and reportedly had chemistry with Allen.
 
i thought that Josh did look for him early in games, pre and after the high ankle sprain. unfortunately, Gabe had a case of the dropsies quite a few times last times. Killing early momentum and drives. I thought this was his biggest downfall and something that he struggles with a bit.

I am not sure that will get that much better this year.
 
I am not sure that will get that much better this year.
What do you base this on? Is that not something players can improve on?

I think it is something players can improve on. But let's not kid ourselves most players do not...like the grand majority of players. I don't want to use a number but stats will show most players show who they are in the first couple of years. Is that always the case...of course not. Gabe might be the next great wr and I'm not saying he won't. Just that if you are looking at numbers it doesn't look good at this point.
 
I am not sure that will get that much better this year.
What do you base this on? Is that not something players can improve on?
Short answer, no. He’s not a hands guy and more of a body catcher. I loved me some GD last year, but I am mostly out this year.
I think he’s at a much more attractive price point this year.

Last year I had him on the cheap in both leagues, and when he climbed up to ridiculous ADP, I was out on him there.

But as the what, 90th or 80th overall player? Seems like you could do a lot worse. Especially with his propensity for touchdowns.

If I played best ball, he would be a top target in every league as a later pick
 
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Agreed with all counts on comment regarding Dalton Kincaid. Bills traded up to draft this guy to be their slot receiver (and likely #2 target behind Diggs). (The rumors were in on Josh Allen lobby for Kincaid with Bills' 1st round pick.) Bills acknowledge the need for another weapon due to double and triple coverage of Diggs and Davis' non-factor. In all, I strongly believe that Bills will operate 12 as their offense basis. Dont forget that their OC Ken Dorsey was QB coach for Panthers with QB Cam Newton and TE Greg Olsen. So I believe Kincaid is going to get done as receiver, not blocker (this is Dawson Knox's role now).
 
Agreed with all counts on comment regarding Dalton Kincaid. Bills traded up to draft this guy to be their slot receiver (and likely #2 target behind Diggs). (The rumors were in on Josh Allen lobby for Kincaid with Bills' 1st round pick.) Bills acknowledge the need for another weapon due to double and triple coverage of Diggs and Davis' non-factor. In all, I strongly believe that Bills will operate 12 as their offense basis. Dont forget that their OC Ken Dorsey was QB coach for Panthers with QB Cam Newton and TE Greg Olsen. So I believe Kincaid is going to get done as receiver, not blocker (this is Dawson Knox's role now).
Agee with the premise but I doubt they just stop throwing to Knox. Allen likes him in the RZ, and he’s a decent enough receiver to not become a full time blocker. I’ve seen that narrative quite a bit & it seems like Wishful thinking from Kinkaid shareholders.

Maybe it will work out like that, but I’m a bit skeptical.
 
Played golf with Gabe here in Orlando Friday. This Diggs stuff has had a positive effect on his relationship with Josh. Shakir is not a factor here and I completely agree with the Kincaid/RB catches competing with each other rather than Davis. Josh will run less this year, but nothing drastic generally...more so less short yardage carries <--- all IMO based on conversation. Fully convinced Gabe outperforms ADP, which is SO cheap. Great late rd target
How's his golf game?
 
Played golf with Gabe here in Orlando Friday. This Diggs stuff has had a positive effect on his relationship with Josh. Shakir is not a factor here and I completely agree with the Kincaid/RB catches competing with each other rather than Davis. Josh will run less this year, but nothing drastic generally...more so less short yardage carries <--- all IMO based on conversation. Fully convinced Gabe outperforms ADP, which is SO cheap. Great late rd target
How's his golf game?
Better than you would think - right around a 10
 
He was sitting there nicely for a long time as a WR4 and that was great. He's always been a camp star and I believe this early puff piece is the first of many, and my hunch isthat ADP's gonna vault upwards.

I was keen on the idea of getting him cheap but I'm gonna steer away if my hunch proves correct. If he's the price again where I have to start him, meh.
 

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