WR Gabriel Davis, JAC (1 Viewer)

[SuperFantasyFootballGuy]

You won't be seeing this cat in the slot which leaves Kirk's role untouched. I'll take G Davis as my WR3/4. As long as he's still got those burners he's good for production.

If you want a WR 3/4 who tops out about 750/4, he’s your guy. His situation was optimal in Buffalo and he didn’t perform, other than the occasional big game when he was on your bench because he had done virtually nothing the previous 2-3 games. 4th option at best after Kirk, Engram and ETN. Jones in the mix too. Lawrence is good but not elite.

So half the TDs he scored in prior years is what he "tops out" at?

In that offense, yeah.

Interesting take. I love this landing spot as a Davis believer, and I did not like Buffalo O. Go talk to a Diggs owner about how awesome Buffalo O is for WRs.

You won't be seeing this cat in the slot which leaves Kirk's role untouched. I'll take G Davis as my WR3/4. As long as he's still got those burners he's good for production.

If you want a WR 3/4 who tops out about 750/4, he’s your guy. His situation was optimal in Buffalo and he didn’t perform, other than the occasional big game when he was on your bench because he had done virtually nothing the previous 2-3 games. 4th option at best after Kirk, Engram and ETN. Jones in the mix too. Lawrence is good but not elite.

So half the TDs he scored in prior years is what he "tops out" at?

In that offense, yeah.

Interesting take. I love this landing spot as a Davis believer, and I did not like Buffalo O. Go talk to a Diggs owner about how awesome Buffalo O is for WRs.

I am a Diggs owner

I know it’s vogue to complain about him these days but 100 plus catches and 1200-1500 years every year. I’ll take that.

Hope Davis does well. Seems like a good dude and a team player. Just don’t see him as a viable #3 and a so so #4.

Don't get me wrong... time will tell. As a Diggs owner you have to acknowledge that passing offense went into reverse in 2023. Down the stretch, it became TE/running heavy and very little for any WR. As you know, in the final 11 NFL weeks Diggs had just two games where he exceeded 80 yards (87, 86). Most were well below that (58, 70, 34, 27, 74, 24, 48, 29, 28). When a WR1 gets those totals, it speaks volumes and hard to judge the performance of anyone getting leftovers. In fairness, people could say the same about the Jags passing attack in 2023. I've always liked Gabe's talent though, and I believe his ceiling is yet to be tapped.

Trust me, I’m aware Diggs was pretty bad the 2nd half of season. But I think it can be fixed. Don’t think it was a sudden talent drop off on Diggs part. But that’s a separate discussion that was beat to death on the Diggs thread a couple months back.

Davis kind of took a backseat to Shakir the 2nd half of the season. There had to be a reason for that. I doubt it was personal.

We shall see I guess but I’m not excited about the move. Obviously

I'd try selling Diggs. The guy is 30 and a constant locker room cancer. Wait until his skills start to decline and he blames other people for this lack of separation.


Better to be a year early than late and he turns 31 in November. I refuse to draft Diggs. I want whatever WR they draft in the first two rounds this season.

Nah. Have gone back to back and Diggs and Keenan will probably die on my team, which I’m fine with. Have picks 1, 9 and 13 and plan on taking 3 WRs to get young again. Good year to do that.

Of course if someone offered a decent haul, that could change.

I feel you! I'm like that with Derrick Henry. Logically I should trade him, but he'll end up retiring on my team even when he's plodding for 3.5 YPC.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You won't be seeing this cat in the slot which leaves Kirk's role untouched. I'll take G Davis as my WR3/4. As long as he's still got those burners he's good for production.

If you want a WR 3/4 who tops out about 750/4, he’s your guy. His situation was optimal in Buffalo and he didn’t perform, other than the occasional big game when he was on your bench because he had done virtually nothing the previous 2-3 games. 4th option at best after Kirk, Engram and ETN. Jones in the mix too. Lawrence is good but not elite.

So half the TDs he scored in prior years is what he "tops out" at?

In that offense, yeah.

Interesting take. I love this landing spot as a Davis believer, and I did not like Buffalo O. Go talk to a Diggs owner about how awesome Buffalo O is for WRs.

You won't be seeing this cat in the slot which leaves Kirk's role untouched. I'll take G Davis as my WR3/4. As long as he's still got those burners he's good for production.

If you want a WR 3/4 who tops out about 750/4, he’s your guy. His situation was optimal in Buffalo and he didn’t perform, other than the occasional big game when he was on your bench because he had done virtually nothing the previous 2-3 games. 4th option at best after Kirk, Engram and ETN. Jones in the mix too. Lawrence is good but not elite.

So half the TDs he scored in prior years is what he "tops out" at?

In that offense, yeah.

Interesting take. I love this landing spot as a Davis believer, and I did not like Buffalo O. Go talk to a Diggs owner about how awesome Buffalo O is for WRs.

I am a Diggs owner

I know it’s vogue to complain about him these days but 100 plus catches and 1200-1500 years every year. I’ll take that.

Hope Davis does well. Seems like a good dude and a team player. Just don’t see him as a viable #3 and a so so #4.

Don't get me wrong... time will tell. As a Diggs owner you have to acknowledge that passing offense went into reverse in 2023. Down the stretch, it became TE/running heavy and very little for any WR. As you know, in the final 11 NFL weeks Diggs had just two games where he exceeded 80 yards (87, 86). Most were well below that (58, 70, 34, 27, 74, 24, 48, 29, 28). When a WR1 gets those totals, it speaks volumes and hard to judge the performance of anyone getting leftovers. In fairness, people could say the same about the Jags passing attack in 2023. I've always liked Gabe's talent though, and I believe his ceiling is yet to be tapped.

Trust me, I’m aware Diggs was pretty bad the 2nd half of season. But I think it can be fixed. Don’t think it was a sudden talent drop off on Diggs part. But that’s a separate discussion that was beat to death on the Diggs thread a couple months back.

Davis kind of took a backseat to Shakir the 2nd half of the season. There had to be a reason for that. I doubt it was personal.

We shall see I guess but I’m not excited about the move. Obviously

I'd try selling Diggs. The guy is 30 and a constant locker room cancer. Wait until his skills start to decline and he blames other people for this lack of separation.


Better to be a year early than late and he turns 31 in November. I refuse to draft Diggs. I want whatever WR they draft in the first two rounds this season.

Nah. Have gone back to back and Diggs and Keenan will probably die on my team, which I’m fine with. Have picks 1, 9 and 13 and plan on taking 3 WRs to get young again. Good year to do that.

Of course if someone offered a decent haul, that could change.

If your team is floundering, mid-season is probably going to be your last chance to cash on either/both.

I like the approach so long as you’re competitive, but if not, I’d float them to the contenders to see if you get get some draft capital.

 

[efactor]

You won't be seeing this cat in the slot which leaves Kirk's role untouched. I'll take G Davis as my WR3/4. As long as he's still got those burners he's good for production.

If you want a WR 3/4 who tops out about 750/4, he’s your guy. His situation was optimal in Buffalo and he didn’t perform, other than the occasional big game when he was on your bench because he had done virtually nothing the previous 2-3 games. 4th option at best after Kirk, Engram and ETN. Jones in the mix too. Lawrence is good but not elite.

So half the TDs he scored in prior years is what he "tops out" at?

In that offense, yeah.

Interesting take. I love this landing spot as a Davis believer, and I did not like Buffalo O. Go talk to a Diggs owner about how awesome Buffalo O is for WRs.

You won't be seeing this cat in the slot which leaves Kirk's role untouched. I'll take G Davis as my WR3/4. As long as he's still got those burners he's good for production.

If you want a WR 3/4 who tops out about 750/4, he’s your guy. His situation was optimal in Buffalo and he didn’t perform, other than the occasional big game when he was on your bench because he had done virtually nothing the previous 2-3 games. 4th option at best after Kirk, Engram and ETN. Jones in the mix too. Lawrence is good but not elite.

So half the TDs he scored in prior years is what he "tops out" at?

In that offense, yeah.

Interesting take. I love this landing spot as a Davis believer, and I did not like Buffalo O. Go talk to a Diggs owner about how awesome Buffalo O is for WRs.

I am a Diggs owner

I know it’s vogue to complain about him these days but 100 plus catches and 1200-1500 years every year. I’ll take that.

Hope Davis does well. Seems like a good dude and a team player. Just don’t see him as a viable #3 and a so so #4.

Don't get me wrong... time will tell. As a Diggs owner you have to acknowledge that passing offense went into reverse in 2023. Down the stretch, it became TE/running heavy and very little for any WR. As you know, in the final 11 NFL weeks Diggs had just two games where he exceeded 80 yards (87, 86). Most were well below that (58, 70, 34, 27, 74, 24, 48, 29, 28). When a WR1 gets those totals, it speaks volumes and hard to judge the performance of anyone getting leftovers. In fairness, people could say the same about the Jags passing attack in 2023. I've always liked Gabe's talent though, and I believe his ceiling is yet to be tapped.

Trust me, I’m aware Diggs was pretty bad the 2nd half of season. But I think it can be fixed. Don’t think it was a sudden talent drop off on Diggs part. But that’s a separate discussion that was beat to death on the Diggs thread a couple months back.

Davis kind of took a backseat to Shakir the 2nd half of the season. There had to be a reason for that. I doubt it was personal.

We shall see I guess but I’m not excited about the move. Obviously

I'd try selling Diggs. The guy is 30 and a constant locker room cancer. Wait until his skills start to decline and he blames other people for this lack of separation.


Better to be a year early than late and he turns 31 in November. I refuse to draft Diggs. I want whatever WR they draft in the first two rounds this season.

Nah. Have gone back to back and Diggs and Keenan will probably die on my team, which I’m fine with. Have picks 1, 9 and 13 and plan on taking 3 WRs to get young again. Good year to do that.

Of course if someone offered a decent haul, that could change.

If your team is floundering, mid-season is probably going to be your last chance to cash on either/both.

I like the approach so long as you’re competitive, but if not, I’d float them to the contenders to see if you get get some draft capital.

Agree but I still have the best team and it’s in good shape overall. Might move one of them towards the end of the season to a team wanting to make a run. Value is pretty low right now.

 

[BigJim®]

But I think it can be fixed. Don’t think it was a sudden talent drop off on Diggs part.

Right, neither do I. I think it is the offensive scheme. I also think understanding and accepting that is fair play gauging Davis.

 

[SuperFantasyFootballGuy]

But I think it can be fixed. Don’t think it was a sudden talent drop off on Diggs part.

Right, neither do I. I think it is the offensive scheme. I also think understanding and accepting that is fair play gauging Davis.

It's a catch 22 though. He's gonna be pissed when Buffalo drafts Troy Franklin and when Franklin sees more targets than him.


Situation is a powder keg, imo. You'll see the Bills put plans in place to move on from Diggs this draft, 100%.


He's due $27,000,000+ the next 3 seasons at age 31, 32, and 33. Which just doesn't happen in this league.

 

[efactor]

But I think it can be fixed. Don’t think it was a sudden talent drop off on Diggs part.

Right, neither do I. I think it is the offensive scheme. I also think understanding and accepting that is fair play gauging Davis.

It's a catch 22 though. He's gonna be pissed when Buffalo drafts Troy Franklin and when Franklin sees more targets than him.


Situation is a powder keg, imo. You'll see the Bills put plans in place to move on from Diggs this draft, 100%.


He's due $27,000,000+ the next 3 seasons at age 31, 32, and 33. Which just doesn't happen in this league.

Well, if they draft Franklin, no way he out targets Diggs. Very few rookies step in and dominate immediately. Very rare.

Of course they have to prepare for life after Diggs but won’t happen this year.

 

[BigJim®]

It's a catch 22 though. He's gonna be pissed when Buffalo drafts Troy Franklin and when Franklin sees more targets than him.

Diggs? I'm sure he's going to be unhappy regardless if that offensive scheme remains heavy run/TE. I really and truly don't think WR talent is the issue on that team.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Good move for the Jags. Not ideal for Davis fantasy, but not terrible. He's a WR 3/4

Agreed. WR3 with occasional WR2 bursts, WR4 floors.

Should be decent enough to plug into flex slot every week with the occasional boom game. Probably TD dependent, bur slightly less so than in BUF.

Doesn’t have a RZ vulture QB, so his size could be useful in that part of the field.

Let's unpack this further. He'll never be a 1,000 yard receiver. He relies too much on the home run for that, but he does have a TD upside that other players who catch a ton of passes don't.


He could end up with 10+ touchdowns and that's where his value will come from. The bottom line is he'll see more relevant targets than he did in Buffalo.



Agree that he's pretty much pointless in 1PPR and would be on my DND list. But in 0.5 PPR I'll take his bomb TDs over a guy like Josh Downs.

We should also take care to recognize that these are two different teams with vastly different QBs. TLaw moves the sticks in the air, while Allen often takes off running.

There could be a little more in the reception column.

He’s never gonna be a Tim Brown, but there’s a little chicken & the egg here where BUF wasn’t super creative with him.

Depending what else JAX does, 1000 yards might not be out of the realm of possibility.

Last year Allen had more pass attempts than Lawrence. Can you explain that point to me of more receptions due to....

 

[The Duff Man]

Happy for Gabe. I still think he can be better than what he showed in Buffalo.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Good move for the Jags. Not ideal for Davis fantasy, but not terrible. He's a WR 3/4

Agreed. WR3 with occasional WR2 bursts, WR4 floors.

Should be decent enough to plug into flex slot every week with the occasional boom game. Probably TD dependent, bur slightly less so than in BUF.

Doesn’t have a RZ vulture QB, so his size could be useful in that part of the field.

Let's unpack this further. He'll never be a 1,000 yard receiver. He relies too much on the home run for that, but he does have a TD upside that other players who catch a ton of passes don't.


He could end up with 10+ touchdowns and that's where his value will come from. The bottom line is he'll see more relevant targets than he did in Buffalo.



Agree that he's pretty much pointless in 1PPR and would be on my DND list. But in 0.5 PPR I'll take his bomb TDs over a guy like Josh Downs.

We should also take care to recognize that these are two different teams with vastly different QBs. TLaw moves the sticks in the air, while Allen often takes off running.

There could be a little more in the reception column.

He’s never gonna be a Tim Brown, but there’s a little chicken & the egg here where BUF wasn’t super creative with him.

Depending what else JAX does, 1000 yards might not be out of the realm of possibility.

Last year Allen had more pass attempts than Lawrence. Can you explain that point to me of more receptions due to....

no idea what’s going to happen in JAX.

Pass attempts =/= targets though, so logic fail.

There were multiple games where Davis was used primarily as a blocker (including the 0 target game where he got the game ball). Perhaps he’ll get *more targets* in JAX, which would mean *more receptions*?

I hope that’s a good enough explanation for you.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Good move for the Jags. Not ideal for Davis fantasy, but not terrible. He's a WR 3/4

Agreed. WR3 with occasional WR2 bursts, WR4 floors.

Should be decent enough to plug into flex slot every week with the occasional boom game. Probably TD dependent, bur slightly less so than in BUF.

Doesn’t have a RZ vulture QB, so his size could be useful in that part of the field.

Let's unpack this further. He'll never be a 1,000 yard receiver. He relies too much on the home run for that, but he does have a TD upside that other players who catch a ton of passes don't.


He could end up with 10+ touchdowns and that's where his value will come from. The bottom line is he'll see more relevant targets than he did in Buffalo.



Agree that he's pretty much pointless in 1PPR and would be on my DND list. But in 0.5 PPR I'll take his bomb TDs over a guy like Josh Downs.

We should also take care to recognize that these are two different teams with vastly different QBs. TLaw moves the sticks in the air, while Allen often takes off running.

There could be a little more in the reception column.

He’s never gonna be a Tim Brown, but there’s a little chicken & the egg here where BUF wasn’t super creative with him.

Depending what else JAX does, 1000 yards might not be out of the realm of possibility.

Last year Allen had more pass attempts than Lawrence. Can you explain that point to me of more receptions due to....

no idea what’s going to happen in JAX.

Pass attempts =/= targets though, so logic fail.

There were multiple games where Davis was used primarily as a blocker (including the 0 target game where he got the game ball). Perhaps he’ll get *more targets* in JAX, which would mean *more receptions*?

I hope that’s a good enough explanation for you.

Easy tiger.

I do understand the possibility of being used differently, but failed to understand how Allen runs for it while Lawrence passes to move the sticks when Allen had more pass attempts and completions.
I don't have any logic fail when discussing that point.


What would you put his value at now? Late 2nd? early or late 3rd?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Good move for the Jags. Not ideal for Davis fantasy, but not terrible. He's a WR 3/4

Agreed. WR3 with occasional WR2 bursts, WR4 floors.

Should be decent enough to plug into flex slot every week with the occasional boom game. Probably TD dependent, bur slightly less so than in BUF.

Doesn’t have a RZ vulture QB, so his size could be useful in that part of the field.

Let's unpack this further. He'll never be a 1,000 yard receiver. He relies too much on the home run for that, but he does have a TD upside that other players who catch a ton of passes don't.


He could end up with 10+ touchdowns and that's where his value will come from. The bottom line is he'll see more relevant targets than he did in Buffalo.



Agree that he's pretty much pointless in 1PPR and would be on my DND list. But in 0.5 PPR I'll take his bomb TDs over a guy like Josh Downs.

We should also take care to recognize that these are two different teams with vastly different QBs. TLaw moves the sticks in the air, while Allen often takes off running.

There could be a little more in the reception column.

He’s never gonna be a Tim Brown, but there’s a little chicken & the egg here where BUF wasn’t super creative with him.

Depending what else JAX does, 1000 yards might not be out of the realm of possibility.

Last year Allen had more pass attempts than Lawrence. Can you explain that point to me of more receptions due to....

no idea what’s going to happen in JAX.

Pass attempts =/= targets though, so logic fail.

There were multiple games where Davis was used primarily as a blocker (including the 0 target game where he got the game ball). Perhaps he’ll get *more targets* in JAX, which would mean *more receptions*?

I hope that’s a good enough explanation for you.

Easy tiger.

All good - I tried to answer your question.

I do understand the possibility of being used differently, but failed to understand how Allen runs for it while Lawrence passes to move the sticks when Allen had more pass attempts and completions.
I don't have any logic fail when discussing that point

Because again, volume by a QB doesn’t necessarily equate to targets for a WR. Was that somehow unclear in my response?

I saw that as a logical disconnect in your rather pointed question.

IMO Davis will be targeted more in JAX than he was in BUF. That should lead to more receptions.

What would you put his value at now? Late 2nd? early or late 3rd?

No idea. I’m happy as a shareholder as I believe this could be a bump in value. I wouldn’t take a 3rd for him in either league. I need a WR more than I need a 2nd in both, so you’re probably asking the wrong person.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jags just refuse to invest in and truly help Lawrence with a true #1. This will be their "big" signing to help him out.

Trevor isn't a QB that can make average WRs elite. He needs the talent already there, and then can piggyback off of that. This signing doesn't help him in the big picture.

And if I hear Kirk referred to as a legit WR1 one more time.....

I think they like to spread the ball around.

Kirk isn’t a WR1, but he can move the chains.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see them sign another WR. They picked up Duverney, but that’s hardly a splash move.

 

[Faust]

Doug Pederson views Gabe Davis as 'Swiss Army knife' in Jaguars offense

 

[barackdhouse]

fascinating

x.com

x.com

 

[barackdhouse]

Most FPts per target since 2020 Fantasy Points / Target Targets

1 - mystery player	2.09	486
2 - Tyreek Hill	2.05	635
3 - Brandon Aiyuk	2.04	399
4 - Justin Jefferson	2.02	576
5 - Gabe Davis	2.00	299
6 - Ja'Marr Chase	2.00	407
7 - AJ Brown	1.99	514
8 - Tyler Lockett	1.97	478
9 - Cooper Kupp	1.96	508
10 - Davante Adams	1.94	673

 

[smbkrypt24]

Most FPts per target since 2020 Fantasy Points / Target Targets

1 - mystery player	2.09	486
2 - Tyreek Hill	2.05	635
3 - Brandon Aiyuk	2.04	399
4 - Justin Jefferson	2.02	576
5 - Gabe Davis	2.00	299
6 - Ja'Marr Chase	2.00	407
7 - AJ Brown	1.99	514
8 - Tyler Lockett	1.97	478
9 - Cooper Kupp	1.96	508
10 - Davante Adams	1.94	673

I was going to laugh and say since its in the G. Davis thread I am guessing that mystery player is Big Time Davis, but I see he is at #5.
I am going to go with Deebo for the top slot, but complete guess there.

 

[eighsse2]

Most FPts per target since 2020 Fantasy Points / Target Targets

1 - mystery player	2.09	486
2 - Tyreek Hill	2.05	635
3 - Brandon Aiyuk	2.04	399
4 - Justin Jefferson	2.02	576
5 - Gabe Davis	2.00	299
6 - Ja'Marr Chase	2.00	407
7 - AJ Brown	1.99	514
8 - Tyler Lockett	1.97	478
9 - Cooper Kupp	1.96	508
10 - Davante Adams	1.94	673

I was going to laugh and say since its in the G. Davis thread I am guessing that mystery player is Big Time Davis, but I see he is at #5.
I am going to go with Deebo for the top slot, but complete guess there.

Deebo came to mind for me as well. Diggs?

 

[Scoresman]

fascinating

x.com

x.com

What people who draft guys like Davis forget about is that when you draft him, you are relying on your ability to predict when he will put up a 30 point game vs a 0 point game.

The question is does this guy just take games off, or was it more an issue of how the bills used him.

 

[barackdhouse]

Most FPts per target since 2020 Fantasy Points / Target Targets

1 - mystery player	2.09	486
2 - Tyreek Hill	2.05	635
3 - Brandon Aiyuk	2.04	399
4 - Justin Jefferson	2.02	576
5 - Gabe Davis	2.00	299
6 - Ja'Marr Chase	2.00	407
7 - AJ Brown	1.99	514
8 - Tyler Lockett	1.97	478
9 - Cooper Kupp	1.96	508
10 - Davante Adams	1.94	673

I was going to laugh and say since its in the G. Davis thread I am guessing that mystery player is Big Time Davis, but I see he is at #5.
I am going to go with Deebo for the top slot, but complete guess there.

In the twitter thread from the guy that actually posted this thing, he pointed out that this is only purely targets, and as such Deebo is like 18th here. If you include his rushing stats, his worth looks different.

 

[barackdhouse]

Most FPts per target since 2020 Fantasy Points / Target Targets

1 - mystery player	2.09	486
2 - Tyreek Hill	2.05	635
3 - Brandon Aiyuk	2.04	399
4 - Justin Jefferson	2.02	576
5 - Gabe Davis	2.00	299
6 - Ja'Marr Chase	2.00	407
7 - AJ Brown	1.99	514
8 - Tyler Lockett	1.97	478
9 - Cooper Kupp	1.96	508
10 - Davante Adams	1.94	673

I was going to laugh and say since its in the G. Davis thread I am guessing that mystery player is Big Time Davis, but I see he is at #5.
I am going to go with Deebo for the top slot, but complete guess there.

Deebo came to mind for me as well. Diggs?

nope

 

[Lansdowne]

Most FPts per target since 2020 Fantasy Points / Target Targets

1 - mystery player	2.09	486
2 - Tyreek Hill	2.05	635
3 - Brandon Aiyuk	2.04	399
4 - Justin Jefferson	2.02	576
5 - Gabe Davis	2.00	299
6 - Ja'Marr Chase	2.00	407
7 - AJ Brown	1.99	514
8 - Tyler Lockett	1.97	478
9 - Cooper Kupp	1.96	508
10 - Davante Adams	1.94	673

I was going to laugh and say since its in the G. Davis thread I am guessing that mystery player is Big Time Davis, but I see he is at #5.
I am going to go with Deebo for the top slot, but complete guess there.

The OP on Twitter confirmed Deebo came up as 16th on that list. The most popular guess seems to be Mike Evans, and he would be my guess as well.

 

[barackdhouse]

fascinating

x.com

x.com

What people who draft guys like Davis forget about is that when you draft him, you are relying on your ability to predict when he will put up a 30 point game vs a 0 point game.

The question is does this guy just take games off, or was it more an issue of how the bills used him.

Fair questions indeed. And will any of that matter for better or worse in Jacksonville? Who knows? Right now he is going 10th round or later* in redrafts and best ball (obviously better choice in BB) so hopefully he isn't a WR you'd be depending on week to week but that you wouldn't hate to throw in there when needed.

Even that said, there are some other WRs (and RBs) in the same range of drafts that are possibly better choices IMO. Even Brian Thomas Jr is only a couple rounds earlier and would seem the obviously better choice.

But Curtis Samuel/R Shaheed/Palmer/Doubs/Jameson Williams/Dotson
Ford/B Robinson/C Brown/Lloyd

*Just saw that in my most recent $350 FPC draft from a few days ago, I took Brian Thomas Jr at 9.11 as WR49 and Gabe went in the 17th round. Yikes how can you not draft Gabe in the 17th my goodness. I did one more of those drafts one week prior and took Gabe in the 16th round as my WR7 and overall WR75 (but I have been doing a lot of BB with 3WRs and he goes a bit earlier there)

So yeah I guess the question is Gabe vs Kirk assuming Thomas is the one that really balls out. But Gabe is probably a huge value. Whether you'd want to start him or not different question. I think it's entirely possible the problem was/is Josh Allen and that we will see the Buffalo offense take a serious regression to the mean without Diggs and Davis. I'm really not sure how their offseason made their team better. And that it is at least within the realm of possibility Gabe is able to return value fully in Jacksonville.

But as I've said for a couple years now, I still don't put that as more than a high end WR2 at the end of the year. Middling WR3 has been his story and the FF landscape is full of middling WR3s if you hadn't heard. Brian Thomas (and possibly Engram) are the Jags to own.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

fascinating

x.com

x.com

What people who draft guys like Davis forget about is that when you draft him, you are relying on your ability to predict when he will put up a 30 point game vs a 0 point game.

The question is does this guy just take games off, or was it more an issue of how the bills used him.

Fair questions indeed. And will any of that matter for better or worse in Jacksonville? Who knows? Right now he is going 10th round or later* in redrafts and best ball (obviously better choice in BB) so hopefully he isn't a WR you'd be depending on week to week but that you wouldn't hate to throw in there when needed.

Even that said, there are some other WRs (and RBs) in the same range of drafts that are possibly better choices IMO. Even Brian Thomas Jr is only a couple rounds earlier and would seem the obviously better choice.

But Curtis Samuel/R Shaheed/Palmer/Doubs/Jameson Williams/Dotson
Ford/B Robinson/C Brown/Lloyd

*Just saw that in my most recent $350 FPC draft from a few days ago, I took Brian Thomas Jr at 9.11 as WR49 and Gabe went in the 17th round. Yikes how can you not draft Gabe in the 17th my goodness. I did one more of those drafts one week prior and took Gabe in the 16th round as my WR7 and overall WR75 (but I have been doing a lot of BB with 3WRs and he goes a bit earlier there)

So yeah I guess the question is Gabe vs Kirk assuming Thomas is the one that really balls out. But Gabe is probably a huge value. Whether you'd want to start him or not different question. I think it's entirely possible the problem was/is Josh Allen and that we will see the Buffalo offense take a serious regression to the mean without Diggs and Davis. I'm really not sure how their offseason made their team better. And that it is at least within the realm of possibility Gabe is able to return value fully in Jacksonville.

But as I've said for a couple years now, I still don't put that as more than a high end WR2 at the end of the year. Middling WR3 has been his story and the FF landscape is full of middling WR3s if you hadn't heard. Brian Thomas (and possibly Engram) are the Jags to own.

Do you have a projection line for Kirk in the slot?

 

[barackdhouse]

fascinating

x.com

x.com

What people who draft guys like Davis forget about is that when you draft him, you are relying on your ability to predict when he will put up a 30 point game vs a 0 point game.

The question is does this guy just take games off, or was it more an issue of how the bills used him.

Fair questions indeed. And will any of that matter for better or worse in Jacksonville? Who knows? Right now he is going 10th round or later* in redrafts and best ball (obviously better choice in BB) so hopefully he isn't a WR you'd be depending on week to week but that you wouldn't hate to throw in there when needed.

Even that said, there are some other WRs (and RBs) in the same range of drafts that are possibly better choices IMO. Even Brian Thomas Jr is only a couple rounds earlier and would seem the obviously better choice.

But Curtis Samuel/R Shaheed/Palmer/Doubs/Jameson Williams/Dotson
Ford/B Robinson/C Brown/Lloyd

*Just saw that in my most recent $350 FPC draft from a few days ago, I took Brian Thomas Jr at 9.11 as WR49 and Gabe went in the 17th round. Yikes how can you not draft Gabe in the 17th my goodness. I did one more of those drafts one week prior and took Gabe in the 16th round as my WR7 and overall WR75 (but I have been doing a lot of BB with 3WRs and he goes a bit earlier there)

So yeah I guess the question is Gabe vs Kirk assuming Thomas is the one that really balls out. But Gabe is probably a huge value. Whether you'd want to start him or not different question. I think it's entirely possible the problem was/is Josh Allen and that we will see the Buffalo offense take a serious regression to the mean without Diggs and Davis. I'm really not sure how their offseason made their team better. And that it is at least within the realm of possibility Gabe is able to return value fully in Jacksonville.

But as I've said for a couple years now, I still don't put that as more than a high end WR2 at the end of the year. Middling WR3 has been his story and the FF landscape is full of middling WR3s if you hadn't heard. Brian Thomas (and possibly Engram) are the Jags to own.

Do you have a projection line for Kirk in the slot?

I don't do projections really but I think he and Gabe will basically cancel each other out. If Lawrence really takes a major developmental step then maybe there can be more FF pie to go around but I think Kirk is another middling WR3 type (now that Brian Thomas is there). As a team they probably have more talent and upside than they have at any time during the Lawrence era so who knows.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

fascinating

x.com

x.com

What people who draft guys like Davis forget about is that when you draft him, you are relying on your ability to predict when he will put up a 30 point game vs a 0 point game.

The question is does this guy just take games off, or was it more an issue of how the bills used him.

Fair questions indeed. And will any of that matter for better or worse in Jacksonville? Who knows? Right now he is going 10th round or later* in redrafts and best ball (obviously better choice in BB) so hopefully he isn't a WR you'd be depending on week to week but that you wouldn't hate to throw in there when needed.

Even that said, there are some other WRs (and RBs) in the same range of drafts that are possibly better choices IMO. Even Brian Thomas Jr is only a couple rounds earlier and would seem the obviously better choice.

But Curtis Samuel/R Shaheed/Palmer/Doubs/Jameson Williams/Dotson
Ford/B Robinson/C Brown/Lloyd

*Just saw that in my most recent $350 FPC draft from a few days ago, I took Brian Thomas Jr at 9.11 as WR49 and Gabe went in the 17th round. Yikes how can you not draft Gabe in the 17th my goodness. I did one more of those drafts one week prior and took Gabe in the 16th round as my WR7 and overall WR75 (but I have been doing a lot of BB with 3WRs and he goes a bit earlier there)

So yeah I guess the question is Gabe vs Kirk assuming Thomas is the one that really balls out. But Gabe is probably a huge value. Whether you'd want to start him or not different question. I think it's entirely possible the problem was/is Josh Allen and that we will see the Buffalo offense take a serious regression to the mean without Diggs and Davis. I'm really not sure how their offseason made their team better. And that it is at least within the realm of possibility Gabe is able to return value fully in Jacksonville.

But as I've said for a couple years now, I still don't put that as more than a high end WR2 at the end of the year. Middling WR3 has been his story and the FF landscape is full of middling WR3s if you hadn't heard. Brian Thomas (and possibly Engram) are the Jags to own.

Do you have a projection line for Kirk in the slot?

I don't do projections really but I think he and Gabe will basically cancel each other out. If Lawrence really takes a major developmental step then maybe there can be more FF pie to go around but I think Kirk is another middling WR3 type (now that Brian Thomas is there). As a team they probably have more talent and upside than they have at any time during the Lawrence era so who knows.

84/1100/8TDs in '22
Last year he was injured and only started 12 games but his catches and yards per game was similar
Is that 242 points Kirk racked in '22? Was that middling WR3?
His ADP hovers around 50 overall right now, that seems a little high to me since I don't think he has a lot of curb appeal which is another reason i usually like him

 

[barackdhouse]

fascinating

x.com

x.com

What people who draft guys like Davis forget about is that when you draft him, you are relying on your ability to predict when he will put up a 30 point game vs a 0 point game.

The question is does this guy just take games off, or was it more an issue of how the bills used him.

Fair questions indeed. And will any of that matter for better or worse in Jacksonville? Who knows? Right now he is going 10th round or later* in redrafts and best ball (obviously better choice in BB) so hopefully he isn't a WR you'd be depending on week to week but that you wouldn't hate to throw in there when needed.

Even that said, there are some other WRs (and RBs) in the same range of drafts that are possibly better choices IMO. Even Brian Thomas Jr is only a couple rounds earlier and would seem the obviously better choice.

But Curtis Samuel/R Shaheed/Palmer/Doubs/Jameson Williams/Dotson
Ford/B Robinson/C Brown/Lloyd

*Just saw that in my most recent $350 FPC draft from a few days ago, I took Brian Thomas Jr at 9.11 as WR49 and Gabe went in the 17th round. Yikes how can you not draft Gabe in the 17th my goodness. I did one more of those drafts one week prior and took Gabe in the 16th round as my WR7 and overall WR75 (but I have been doing a lot of BB with 3WRs and he goes a bit earlier there)

So yeah I guess the question is Gabe vs Kirk assuming Thomas is the one that really balls out. But Gabe is probably a huge value. Whether you'd want to start him or not different question. I think it's entirely possible the problem was/is Josh Allen and that we will see the Buffalo offense take a serious regression to the mean without Diggs and Davis. I'm really not sure how their offseason made their team better. And that it is at least within the realm of possibility Gabe is able to return value fully in Jacksonville.

But as I've said for a couple years now, I still don't put that as more than a high end WR2 at the end of the year. Middling WR3 has been his story and the FF landscape is full of middling WR3s if you hadn't heard. Brian Thomas (and possibly Engram) are the Jags to own.

Do you have a projection line for Kirk in the slot?

I don't do projections really but I think he and Gabe will basically cancel each other out. If Lawrence really takes a major developmental step then maybe there can be more FF pie to go around but I think Kirk is another middling WR3 type (now that Brian Thomas is there). As a team they probably have more talent and upside than they have at any time during the Lawrence era so who knows.

84/1100/8TDs in '22
Last year he was injured and only started 12 games but his catches and yards per game was similar
Is that 242 points Kirk racked in '22? Was that middling WR3?
His ADP hovers around 50 overall right now, that seems a little high to me since I don't think he has a lot of curb appeal which is another reason i usually like him

I specifically said "now that Brian Thomas is there"

 

[jm192]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

 

[Gally]

The OP on Twitter confirmed Deebo came up as 16th on that list. The most popular guess seems to be Mike Evans, and he would be my guess as well.

Did we ever get the answer?

 

[Ilov80s]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

Sadly this is probably true though Brian Thomas will have to work hard to be better than Davis. While Davis hasn’t delivered on the promise we saw in that magical playoff game, the odds actually say Brian Thomas probably doesn’t have as good of a career as Davis has had.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

I think this summary is a bit off the mark.

To your question, “what is his path to success” - a team that just lost its alpha WR made acquiring Davis their top offseason priority.

Davis was underutilized in Buffalo - you’re correct that he had Allen throwing him the ball. But Allen is also a running QB, who hyper targets his alpha. The Bills used Davis as a deep threat and not a ton else. When the Bills did make Davis a big part of their game plan, he put up monster numbers.

Was Davis’ inconsistency in BUF because of some fault of Davis, or his usage? Sure looked like the latter, yet you seem to be asserting the former. Was he somehow supposed to be productive in games where he received 2, 1, or 0 targets? The targets, or lack thereof runs counter to your narrative that he had “tons of opportunity” in BUF. He had 7 weeks with 3 or fewer targets. 10 weeks with 4 or fewer. Most of his production came in the other 7 games where he was actually utilized. Anyone remember the week he had 0 targets but was given the game ball for his blocking?

Personally I believe Engram suffers the biggest drop-off this year.

So again, to your original question: whats his path to success? Seems like if he is used more as a possession receiver and occasional deep threat instead of exclusively 9-route big play guy he could see something on order of 6-10 targets a week.

That’s 102-170 targets for the season, which could result in somewhere on order of a 75/1000/7-ish? Just spitballing, of course, but it’s the more consistent usage that matters.

It could be less, it could be more. Given that the Jags don’t have a lot of big bodied receivers, I could see Davis getting more RZ looks for greater TD production than in BUF, where Allen was just as likely to take off running from the 10-15 instead of looking to throw into the end zone.

I also don’t see going from Allen to TLaw as a huge downgrade. Lawrence isn’t as likely to take off running with the football, nor is he used at the GL. The Jags have come out and said that they intend to use Davis in a variety of ways, running a full compliment of routes, so that expanded role alone should result in greater consistency for him if that does come to pass.

There’s a case to be made that Davis is going way too late in redraft, and is actually a bit underrated in dynasty.

 

[barackdhouse]

The OP on Twitter confirmed Deebo came up as 16th on that list. The most popular guess seems to be Mike Evans, and he would be my guess as well.

Did we ever get the answer?

oh it was Mike Evans

 

[menobrown]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

Spot on and not much of a path IMO.

Was signed to fill the Zay Jones role. Questionable use of resources but that's his role.

Would not draft in a 20 round redraft. Got no interest in him at all.

 

[Ilov80s]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

Spot on and not much of a path IMO.

Was signed to fill the Zay Jones role. Questionable use of resources but that's his role.

Would not draft in a 20 round redraft. Got no interest in him at all.

Who is taking the Ridley role/targets? That’s a lot to ask a rookie.

 

[Scoresman]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

I think this summary is a bit off the mark.

To your question, “what is his path to success” - a team that just lost its alpha WR made acquiring Davis their top offseason priority.

Davis was underutilized in Buffalo - you’re correct that he had Allen throwing him the ball. But Allen is also a running QB, who hyper targets his alpha. The Bills used Davis as a deep threat and not a ton else. When the Bills did make Davis a big part of their game plan, he put up monster numbers.

Was Davis’ inconsistency in BUF because of some fault of Davis, or his usage? Sure looked like the latter, yet you seem to be asserting the former. Was he somehow supposed to be productive in games where he received 2, 1, or 0 targets? The targets, or lack thereof runs counter to your narrative that he had “tons of opportunity” in BUF. He had 7 weeks with 3 or fewer targets. 10 weeks with 4 or fewer. Most of his production came in the other 7 games where he was actually utilized. Anyone remember the week he had 0 targets but was given the game ball for his blocking?

Personally I believe Engram suffers the biggest drop-off this year.

So again, to your original question: whats his path to success? Seems like if he is used more as a possession receiver and occasional deep threat instead of exclusively 9-route big play guy he could see something on order of 6-10 targets a week.

That’s 102-170 targets for the season, which could result in somewhere on order of a 75/1000/7-ish? Just spitballing, of course, but it’s the more consistent usage that matters.

It could be less, it could be more. Given that the Jags don’t have a lot of big bodied receivers, I could see Davis getting more RZ looks for greater TD production than in BUF, where Allen was just as likely to take off running from the 10-15 instead of looking to throw into the end zone.

I also don’t see going from Allen to TLaw as a huge downgrade. Lawrence isn’t as likely to take off running with the football, nor is he used at the GL. The Jags have come out and said that they intend to use Davis in a variety of ways, running a full compliment of routes, so that expanded role alone should result in greater consistency for him if that does come to pass.

There’s a case to be made that Davis is going way too late in redraft, and is actually a bit underrated in dynasty.

It sounds like you think Davis' usage in Buffalo was more a product of Allen as QB and maybe the coaching scheme as opposed to something being off with Davis' game. This is the question I was trying to answer. Was it the scheme, or did Davis pull a Randy Moss and just take some games off?

His weekly stat lines are perplexing to say the least. In weeks 9, 11, 14, and 15 he played 54, 67, 63, and 49 snaps respectively and put up zero fantasy points in each. In two other weeks he had 50+ snaps and put in less than 1 fantasy point.

 

[barackdhouse]

Brian Thomas is going to be the alpha here. It may not be week 1 but it will be by midseason. I believe that is what the Jags want. And I think the important thing (here) is less about what Gabe or Kirk can/can't do, but or more about what the organization is doing and while I think it is clear Kirk is perennially undervalued by the FF community, and he is capable of leading a team, it's not really what the team wants and I would argue what they need. They want a true alpha like Thomas (who yes will have to prove it and earn it on the field). If that comes to pass then then fantasy pie for relevance for Gabe and Kirk is not great IMO. I think it's the Thomas/Engram/ETN show in Jax until further notice. Kirk is going waaaaay too early for me and so I consider him finally overvalued for once, while Gabe is going late teen rounds so there is probably value there but better in best ball and all that. They are both very solid veteran NFL receivers that make their corps much stronger.

I agree with HotSauce that the path for Gabe will have to come at Engram's expense. Certainly possible. Maybe draft both.

 

[barackdhouse]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

Spot on and not much of a path IMO.

Was signed to fill the Zay Jones role. Questionable use of resources but that's his role.

Would not draft in a 20 round redraft. Got no interest in him at all.

Who is taking the Ridley role/targets? That’s a lot to ask a rookie.

It is but they drafted him to do it. I suppose I am arguing that even if he face plants it will be because they tried to make it happen. which would come at kirk and gabes expense. I am a believer in Thomas though and we see alpha rookies take over all the time.

 

[massraider]

I don't have much interest, but I went looking at ADP as a WR6, I can't get angry. I would take Wicks over him in a second, but there's not a bunch of names there I like better

 

[barackdhouse]

They didn't draft him to just be a deep threat and I agree with Meno about Gabe filling the Zay Jones role.

 

[barackdhouse]

I don't have much interest, but I went looking at ADP as a WR6, I can't get angry. I would take Wicks over him in a second, but there's not a bunch of names there I like better

yeah I mean so maybe he becomes your first or second drop it's not really any true risk IMO unless you're forgoing someone you really do like better. but maybe worth seeing how the jags play him....

that way we can all get sucked in when he has a 2 TD game week one and then doesn't do anything for a month.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It sounds like you think Davis' usage in Buffalo was more a product of Allen as QB and maybe the coaching scheme as opposed to something being off with Davis' game. This is the question I was trying to answer. Was it the scheme, or did Davis pull a Randy Moss and just take some games off?

His weekly stat lines are perplexing to say the least. In weeks 9, 11, 14, and 15 he played 54, 67, 63, and 49 snaps respectively and put up zero fantasy points in each. In two other weeks he had 50+ snaps and put in less than 1 fantasy point.

He was used as a blocker extensively in those games, which is…weird.

I didn’t see him taking games off. He ran routes - he just wasn’t targeted.

In other weeks he was 7 for 6/92/1, 8 for 6/100/1, 12 for 9/87/1, 12 for 6/105/1, and 6 for 4/130/1 - so he was extremely productive when they actually involved him in the game plan.

As @barackdhouse suggests, I don’t see Davis as the new alpha - I actually see a pretty even distribution between their WRs. I absolutely see Davis being more consistently involved in the game plan than he was in BUF.

 

[menobrown]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

Spot on and not much of a path IMO.

Was signed to fill the Zay Jones role. Questionable use of resources but that's his role.

Would not draft in a 20 round redraft. Got no interest in him at all.

Who is taking the Ridley role/targets? That’s a lot to ask a rookie.

First keep in mind when they signed Gabe they thought they'd resign Ridley.

Pederson has overseen the two biggest TE targets season in NFL history. Trevor led the league last year in tracked first throw reads which were primarily to Kirk and Engram. That's were the ball is primarily going.

Before Kirk got hurt Ridley averaged exactly 7 targets a game. It's not a huge pie to work from when you also consider that Zay Jones was missing a chunk of games during this time. Put another way in the 10 full games that Kirk played Ridley and Zay combined for 92 total targets in 10 games. It's not exactly a big pie and seems very reasonable to me that Brian Thomas will eat up most of it, does not seem to big for a rookie who scored 17 TD's in the SEC and keeps getting lauded for his intelligence.

 

[barackdhouse]

It sounds like you think Davis' usage in Buffalo was more a product of Allen as QB and maybe the coaching scheme as opposed to something being off with Davis' game. This is the question I was trying to answer. Was it the scheme, or did Davis pull a Randy Moss and just take some games off?

His weekly stat lines are perplexing to say the least. In weeks 9, 11, 14, and 15 he played 54, 67, 63, and 49 snaps respectively and put up zero fantasy points in each. In two other weeks he had 50+ snaps and put in less than 1 fantasy point.

He was used as a blocker extensively in those games, which is…weird.

I didn’t see him taking games off. He ran routes - he just wasn’t targeted.

In other weeks he was 7 for 6/92/1, 8 for 6/100/1, 12 for 9/87/1, 12 for 6/105/1, and 6 for 4/130/1 - so he was extremely productive when they actually involved him in the game plan.

As @barackdhouse suggests, I don’t see Davis as the new alpha - I actually see a pretty even distribution between their WRs. I absolutely see Davis being more consistently involved in the game plan than he was in BUF.

just to be clear I don't think anybody was suggesting Davis would be an alpha here, I was countering the premise that Kirk would take that role

 

[barackdhouse]

What even is his path to fantasy success?

He was catching balls from one of the best QB's in the world. He went to a worse team, QB, offense.
He had tons of opportunity in Buffalo.

Move to Jacksonville: Kirk probably leads the team in targets, receptions. Engram is probably #2. Brian Thomas is the primary deep threat. I'm sure Gabe runs some deep routes, but it feels like he has even more target competition.

I thought he was a value last year. I was wrong. I don't think I really want him anywhere this season.

Spot on and not much of a path IMO.

Was signed to fill the Zay Jones role. Questionable use of resources but that's his role.

Would not draft in a 20 round redraft. Got no interest in him at all.

Who is taking the Ridley role/targets? That’s a lot to ask a rookie.

First keep in mind when they signed Gabe they thought they'd resign Ridley.

Pederson has overseen the two biggest TE targets season in NFL history. Trevor led the league last year in tracked first throw reads which were primarily to Kirk and Engram. That's were the ball is primarily going.

Before Kirk got hurt Ridley averaged exactly 7 targets a game. It's not a huge pie to work from when you also consider that Zay Jones was missing a chunk of games during this time. Put another way in the 10 full games that Kirk played Ridley and Zay combined for 92 total targets in 10 games. It's not exactly a big pie and seems very reasonable to me that Brian Thomas will eat up most of it, does not seem to big for a rookie who scored 17 TD's in the SEC and keeps getting lauded for his intelligence.

To piggy back here off your point here, I don't think they're going to be reducing Engram's role any, so not big on Gabe. But I *do* think the NFL quality of the corps, including the RBs, make Brian Thomas more viable as a rookie. Those vets are going to demand real attention. The first-read thing with Lawrence is definitely a thing though. I think I've seen *some* development there from him.

 

[barackdhouse]

I still think it's hard to get a read on what really happened in Buffalo because they shipped Diggs out of town as well. I personally think there is a Josh Allen head-case problem with both of those guys but he is the franchise and it's a numbers game and all that. But I'm just not sure how much those moves say about either Diggs or Davis as they do about the Bills and Allen. Sidebar there is mad opportunity in fantasy in Buffalo right now and the market hasn't even taken a stab at it. Yet Josh Allen often goes QB1. It id quite possible that without Diggs first and foremost but yes also without Davis, that the Bills offense will stagnate. Or be much more run heavy which could be better/worse for FF for Allen but I'm avoiding him. Drafting the heck out of Curtis Samuel and Kinkaid though.

Anyway I thought Jax was a great landing spot for Gabe simply because I think there was some weird chemistry issues in Buffalo. There were simply too many time I saw him wide open and Allen seemingly avoided him out of spite. He might be better than we think and a fresh start and all that. I think he can compete with Kirk and Engram for target share and be relevant but I'm not holding my breath for it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I still think it's hard to get a read on what really happened in Buffalo because they shipped Diggs out of town as well. I personally think there is a Josh Allen head-case problem with both of those guys but he is the franchise and it's a numbers game and all that. But I'm just not sure how much those moves say about either Diggs or Davis as they do about the Bills and Allen. Sidebar there is mad opportunity in fantasy in Buffalo right now and the market hasn't even taken a stab at it. Yet Josh Allen often goes QB1. It id quite possible that without Diggs first and foremost but yes also without Davis, that the Bills offense will stagnate. Or be much more run heavy which could be better/worse for FF for Allen but I'm avoiding him. Drafting the heck out of Curtis Samuel and Kinkaid though.

Anyway I thought Jax was a great landing spot for Gabe simply because I think there was some weird chemistry issues in Buffalo. There were simply too many time I saw him wide open and Allen seemingly avoided him out of spite. He might be better than we think and a fresh start and all that. I think he can compete with Kirk and Engram for target share and be relevant but I'm not holding my breath for it.

What do you think of Shakir’s potential as a breakout this year?

I’ve been trying to acquire him in one league, and came pretty close… I still might throw a pick or two at him

 

[JohnnyU]

I still think it's hard to get a read on what really happened in Buffalo because they shipped Diggs out of town as well. I personally think there is a Josh Allen head-case problem with both of those guys but he is the franchise and it's a numbers game and all that. But I'm just not sure how much those moves say about either Diggs or Davis as they do about the Bills and Allen. Sidebar there is mad opportunity in fantasy in Buffalo right now and the market hasn't even taken a stab at it. Yet Josh Allen often goes QB1. It id quite possible that without Diggs first and foremost but yes also without Davis, that the Bills offense will stagnate. Or be much more run heavy which could be better/worse for FF for Allen but I'm avoiding him. Drafting the heck out of Curtis Samuel and Kinkaid though.

Anyway I thought Jax was a great landing spot for Gabe simply because I think there was some weird chemistry issues in Buffalo. There were simply too many time I saw him wide open and Allen seemingly avoided him out of spite. He might be better than we think and a fresh start and all that. I think he can compete with Kirk and Engram for target share and be relevant but I'm not holding my breath for it.

You might be right, but I'm guessing we need to put most of the blame on Davis. He's entering his fifth season and outside of the occasional blow up game, he has disappointed and is impossible to play in fantasy because you never know when that game will be. I would rather hitch my wagon to the new toy in town Brian Thomas Jr.

 

[barackdhouse]

I still think it's hard to get a read on what really happened in Buffalo because they shipped Diggs out of town as well. I personally think there is a Josh Allen head-case problem with both of those guys but he is the franchise and it's a numbers game and all that. But I'm just not sure how much those moves say about either Diggs or Davis as they do about the Bills and Allen. Sidebar there is mad opportunity in fantasy in Buffalo right now and the market hasn't even taken a stab at it. Yet Josh Allen often goes QB1. It id quite possible that without Diggs first and foremost but yes also without Davis, that the Bills offense will stagnate. Or be much more run heavy which could be better/worse for FF for Allen but I'm avoiding him. Drafting the heck out of Curtis Samuel and Kinkaid though.

Anyway I thought Jax was a great landing spot for Gabe simply because I think there was some weird chemistry issues in Buffalo. There were simply too many time I saw him wide open and Allen seemingly avoided him out of spite. He might be better than we think and a fresh start and all that. I think he can compete with Kirk and Engram for target share and be relevant but I'm not holding my breath for it.

What do you think of Shakira’s potential as a breakout this year?

I’ve been trying to acquire him in one league, and came pretty close… I still might throw a pick or two at him

I'm mostly doing in best ball in bulk right now so I'm building stacks and so yeah he has just as much opportunity as any of them right now. I don't think he is ever THE guy though so not too big.

 

[Scoresman]

I still think it's hard to get a read on what really happened in Buffalo because they shipped Diggs out of town as well. I personally think there is a Josh Allen head-case problem with both of those guys but he is the franchise and it's a numbers game and all that. But I'm just not sure how much those moves say about either Diggs or Davis as they do about the Bills and Allen. Sidebar there is mad opportunity in fantasy in Buffalo right now and the market hasn't even taken a stab at it. Yet Josh Allen often goes QB1. It id quite possible that without Diggs first and foremost but yes also without Davis, that the Bills offense will stagnate. Or be much more run heavy which could be better/worse for FF for Allen but I'm avoiding him. Drafting the heck out of Curtis Samuel and Kinkaid though.

Anyway I thought Jax was a great landing spot for Gabe simply because I think there was some weird chemistry issues in Buffalo. There were simply too many time I saw him wide open and Allen seemingly avoided him out of spite. He might be better than we think and a fresh start and all that. I think he can compete with Kirk and Engram for target share and be relevant but I'm not holding my breath for it.

What do you think of Shakira’s potential as a breakout this year?

I’ve been trying to acquire him in one league, and came pretty close… I still might throw a pick or two at him

I don't know about her ability as a WR, but she has some nice assets for sure.

 

[barackdhouse]

I still think it's hard to get a read on what really happened in Buffalo because they shipped Diggs out of town as well. I personally think there is a Josh Allen head-case problem with both of those guys but he is the franchise and it's a numbers game and all that. But I'm just not sure how much those moves say about either Diggs or Davis as they do about the Bills and Allen. Sidebar there is mad opportunity in fantasy in Buffalo right now and the market hasn't even taken a stab at it. Yet Josh Allen often goes QB1. It id quite possible that without Diggs first and foremost but yes also without Davis, that the Bills offense will stagnate. Or be much more run heavy which could be better/worse for FF for Allen but I'm avoiding him. Drafting the heck out of Curtis Samuel and Kinkaid though.

Anyway I thought Jax was a great landing spot for Gabe simply because I think there was some weird chemistry issues in Buffalo. There were simply too many time I saw him wide open and Allen seemingly avoided him out of spite. He might be better than we think and a fresh start and all that. I think he can compete with Kirk and Engram for target share and be relevant but I'm not holding my breath for it.

You might be right, but I'm guessing we need to put most of the blame on Davis. He's entering his fifth season and outside of the occasional blow up game, he has disappointed and is impossible to play in fantasy because you never know when that game will be. I would rather hitch my wagon to the new toy in town Brian Thomas Jr.

That is probably the right take. But we can also draft Gabe super late and cheap and then dump him off that wagon rather than hitch it to him. Thomas is more of a hitch, though I agree and I think I'm at like 60% ownership of Thomas across something like 50 best ball drafts I've done now.

"CAN YOU FLY GABE?!"

*drop kicks 18th round Gabe Davis off the back of wagon onto waiver road*

Can't drop Gabe off my best ball teams though. Truth is even in the 16th round or so there are usually names I like better. Even though I'm a bigger believer in his talent than most there are some good names out there IMO.