Never knew Dan to blow smoke. If he hypes the guy, you can bet the guy is doing everything he needs to be doing and working his butt off. If Dan is disappointed with someone he will not rip the guy, but he will make it clear he needs to show improvement. Dan is an open book.
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WR Jameson Williams, DET (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Never knew Dan to blow smoke. If he hypes the guy, you can bet the guy is doing everything he needs to be doing and working his butt off. If Dan is disappointed with someone he will not rip the guy, but he will make it clear he needs to show improvement. Dan is an open book.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Well I'll believe it when I see a bitten kneecap blood specimen.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
Dan Campbell could convince a fish to start breathing air.
I think his problem has been performing, I don't ever remember reading a motivational issue. Him getting comfy, getting over whatever rookie nerves. He often only looks comfy on the deep passes. When I get to watch him, he still looks like a rookie; amidst his first five games working the kinks out.
He's played too many games for patience. Soon it'll be wysiwyg
He's played too many games for patience. Soon it'll be wysiwyg
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
It's going to be tough for him to "break out" in terms of being much more than a mid tier WR3 but that seems well within the range of outcomes. I don't think it's that hard to get him to 110 targets though if he's actually improved and living somewhat up to his potential. I think he'll be playable in most formats and even leaning a little higher in standard due to the big play and rushing ability- I acquired him and 1.11 for Diggs in a standard league last year and have my fingers crossed.
He has played all of18 games, with his first season being basically a redshirt year. Jamo has yet to have a camp. Everytime he touches the ball in the open field, he is untouchable. His caught a very respectable 67% of his targets the last 8 games. His rushing stats are insane. 5 - 111 - 2. Goff's inaccuracy on deep balls has not helped, and having to compete against four thousand yard double-digit threats means he will have to earn his touches. I am more of a Lions fan than worry about fantasy numbers, and there is not a WR2 in the league I would trade Jamo for outside of DeVante Smith or Waddle. Jamo will be putting on thr Wamo this season.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
The bold is bold. I hope I see what you see this year with Jamo.
I misstated he played too many games. I should have said it's been too long since draft day so...that and soon patience will run thin and it'll be wysiwyg.
No one is saying "he only played 18 games" or whatever about Treylon Burks. Gotta shine the same light on everyone
kutta
Footballguy
Goff is actually very accurate on deep balls. He was the 7th most accurate deep ball passer last year. He gets a bad rap, but he’s a good deep thrower.
2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats including Air Yards, Deep Ball Passing, Pocket Time, and more. See how QBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
www.fantasypros.com
Goff is actually very accurate on deep balls. He was the 7th most accurate deep ball passer last year. He gets a bad rap, but he’s a good deep thrower.
2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats including Air Yards, Deep Ball Passing, Pocket Time, and more. See how QBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
I have no idea how the calculated that. I have seen Goff throw 30 to 40 yard throws highly accurately hitting players in stride. But I can recall about 7 truly deep balls thrown to Jamo and only one I would classify as accurate. Several were slightly under thrown, several others were severely overthrow, and one was slightly overthrown. Not a precise metric, but however they calculated that does not pass the smell test for what I categorize as deep throws. Most deep ball stats consider anything greater than 20 yards and Goff has tremendous accuracy up to about 40 yards.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Deep balls are never all about the QB, sometimes the receiver runs it wrong and makes the QB look bad even though he was throwing to the right spot.
Sometimes it's overthrown on purpose because it's going to be thrown away anyway and why not have the defense concerned and stretched with their safeties deeper after. Easier to run, spreads things out, and if they don't then maybe ya take another shot
Lansdowne
Footballguy
My concern with Goff isn’t hitting Jamo deep necessarily so much as it’s that the ball hangs in the air too long and Jamo has to slow down to catch it. It’s being able to catch Jamo in stride to truly utilize his speed, and while Goff has excellent touch and accuracy, his arm strength isn’t his strong suit.
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kutta
Footballguy
I was genuinely interested in his deep ball accuracy when you posted so I did a bunch of googling and everything points to him being pretty good. I’m sure there are anecdotal incidents where he’s sucked, but it sure looks like he’s decent.Goff is actually very accurate on deep balls. He was the 7th most accurate deep ball passer last year. He gets a bad rap, but he’s a good deep thrower.
2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats including Air Yards, Deep Ball Passing, Pocket Time, and more. See how QBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
I have no idea how the calculated that. I have seen Goff throw 30 to 40 yard throws highly accurately hitting players in stride. But I can recall about 7 truly deep balls thrown to Jamo and only one I would classify as accurate. Several were slightly under thrown, several others were severely overthrow, and one was slightly overthrown. Not a precise metric, but however they calculated that does not pass the smell test for what I categorize as deep throws. Most deep ball stats consider anything greater than 20 yards and Goff has tremendous accuracy up to about 40 yards.
https://atozsports.com/detroit/jared-goff-is-one-of-the-nfls-best-deep-ball-passers-in-2023/
it is hard to perform when you are not on the field. he missed a lot of his rookie year, and while he likely had instruction in the room, the one on one work didnt happen while he was injured. that will hamper the guys development 9.5 times out of 10. hes also a smallish WR so jams at the line will be an issue for him and this is where the one on one coaching will likely be the most helpful to him. as was mentioned earlier, hes good when he gets the ball in space. I think this is a year we need to see some progression from the kid or he will quickly change from prospect to suspect. but a healthy season will likely work wonders for him. Lets hope he can stay on the field.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Jamo in minicamp today
Perfect coverage from Carlton Davis III on a deep route, JG drops it in perfectly…they’re not in pads yet, but still awesone to see him having such a great spring.
Perfect coverage from Carlton Davis III on a deep route, JG drops it in perfectly…they’re not in pads yet, but still awesone to see him having such a great spring.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
I remember when Leveon Bell made some amazing plays in the playoffs, before he was a big deal in the league. Similar with TO.
Likewise, I think the fact that Jamo looked electric in the playoffs on a few plays, combined with the evident camp hype, is promising.
It also helps that his teammates and coaches love him. He has a childlike energy, but not a childish one.
Likewise, I think the fact that Jamo looked electric in the playoffs on a few plays, combined with the evident camp hype, is promising.
It also helps that his teammates and coaches love him. He has a childlike energy, but not a childish one.
It is great to see him having a good camp, but it's kinda funny/sad to see him celebrate a practice play like that. I wonder if he'd still do that if he could make plays like that with consistency in actual games.
Seems like intensity. Would much rather see that then Renolds laughing it up on the sidelines after a key 4th down drop in the most important game in Lions history. Jamo is on a mission and everybody forgets, this is his first training camp.
I would probably call it more immaturity than intensity. Not sure if a WR that has been there before would do that. Not a big issue obviously, but imo just a sign that he may not be maturing like a 3rd year pro should.
I know he missed some time last offseason, but didn't he attend most of it? I thought the suspension only kicked in during regular season?
He missed a good portion of camp due to a hamstring plus he had the suspension hanging over him. This just seems like the first time he is really part of the team and has a role cut out for him.
Maybe, but his yards and tds per catch could be extremely high
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Yeah it seems Jamo would need to be efficient with his targets since the volume won’t be there. Think diet version of Aiyuk (who himself already has criminally low target volume for his talent).
eighsse2
Footballguy
Agree that 400:1 does not seem like good value. But what does that parenthetical even mean? What player would not have a shot at OPOY with, say 1,800 yards?
He would have a shot to win if he hits 1,800 yarde, sure. But for Jameson Williams to have a legitimate shot, I think he would need to significantly outperform not only all quarterbacks and running backs, but also any already established star wideouts with similar stats. So yeah, to have a legit shot I think he’d need 2,000 yards.
But lets be real, Jameson isn’t sniffing 1,800 yards. It’s great odds, but a wasted money bet. In the unlikely event he finishes with 1,800, I guess I would rather have money on Goff to win it at much worse odds.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
If Jameson Williams gets 2000 yards next season, Jared Goff is winning OPOY no doubt about it.
eighsse2
Footballguy
- He only has a legitimate shot to win OPOY if he gets 2,000 yards (NFL record)
- He won't sniff 1,800 yards
- Yet 400:1 odds are great?
Lansdowne
Footballguy
There have been four WR’s in history to win OPOY: Jerry Rice in 1993, Michael Thomas in 2019, Cooper Kupp in 2021, and Justin Jefferson in 2022. Three of them led the NFL in receptions, the exception being Rice, who was second in receptions.
Calvin Johnson set the NFL record for receiving yards in a season and still didn’t win OPOY that year (it was Adrian Peterson). Tyreek Hill finished a yard shy of 1,800 and still lost to another RB in Christian McCaffrey.
Jared Goff lives in the short and intermediate area as a passer and that’s where Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta feast. I love Jameson Williams and I’m not so sure he breaks 1,000 yards, nevermind 1,800 yards. That’s giving money away.
Calvin Johnson set the NFL record for receiving yards in a season and still didn’t win OPOY that year (it was Adrian Peterson). Tyreek Hill finished a yard shy of 1,800 and still lost to another RB in Christian McCaffrey.
Jared Goff lives in the short and intermediate area as a passer and that’s where Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta feast. I love Jameson Williams and I’m not so sure he breaks 1,000 yards, nevermind 1,800 yards. That’s giving money away.
In the last 5 years things have changed, and the OPOY has become more of a WR-centric award than in the past. If Calvin would of had that year today, he would have been OPOY. Over the last 5 years, WRs have won it 3 times and were second last year.
I happen to think that Jamo is going to step up and have a very big year. It probably won't be a year that is OPOY worthy, but Jamo does have the tools and is in a high-powered offense which could produce those types of numbers. Jamo has that upside potential, far more than 90 percent of the people who have better odds in front of him. Certainly far more than someone like Cousins.
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Great odds in terms of EV? No. Poor choice of words by me. That’s not what I meant, and I think that much was clear. He’s one of many that I’m sure you could bet on as an extreme long shot to win the award, and I’m sure not many players are offered that would provide better payouts if they hit (I.e. +100,000).
eighsse2
Footballguy
I see. "Great" odds as in "large", not "great" as in ... can't think of a word, but "good odds to take". I get you.
true. I feel like he may be healthy this year. last I saw he still needed to do some work as he struggles with the Jam at the line. most of the early season lists I saw had him as a WR4. and based on risk thats likely fair. good upside. if I could get him later in my draft as a WR4 or WR5 I'd be happy to have him at that price.
keep in mind, there are now a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit. 50-60% of anything he gets beyond 800 or 850 yards likely comes off of another pass catchers stats in that offense. so its not just about his performance, its also about everyone elses as well. (unless you think Goff will throw for 5500 yards or something of the like)
either way at an ADP in the range of WR4 I'm happy to have him at that price. we will see if the price goes up due to hype as we get further into the pre season
-OZ-
Footballguy
He’s far more likely to end with like 70 receptions, 1,200 yards and 7 TD (basically Aiyuk) than to be higher in the pecking order. But he doesn’t need to be 1 or 2 with his deep game.
So, 3 of the last 5.
I’m still not being on JW but suddenly the Sun God seems like a decent bet. Or Garrett Wilson at +2800.
While this is true, JW is in a spot where he is the only guy with that skill set and they will be taking shots every game. He doesn't need volume to be effective for both real and FF. He is unique to this offense as nobody else there can do what he does and it will open up a lot of the offense with them taking shots to him every game.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
I believe Jamo has monster upside, and in the right situation I could see a 1,800-yard season out of him. But he's on the Lions, who have Amon-Ra St. Brown as their top target hog, who just signed a new contract to stay with the team. Unless ARSB gets injured and Jamo takes all those targets, can't see it happening this year. My hesitation on 1,000 yards is because LaPorta still exists as well. If Jamo had a clearer path to targets, on a different team, the sky's the limit. His ceiling is capped with Detroit though.
As for the other WR's that won OPOY, they far outperformed the next-best WR on their team those years. Hard to see Jamo doing that with the Lions without injury being a factor.
I dont know about 1800 yard upside. its possible that only 1 or 2 players in the league have that kind of upside and Jameson Williams isnt one of them.
I'd say he has 1200-1300 yard upside. and he only gets it if Laporta or ARSB gets hurt.
most likely scenario is 700-800 yards with 1000 yard upside if he figures out how to beat the Jam at the line more consistently (which I will admit is possible)
but if hes gonna get to that 1000 yard mark with nobody getting hurt, he needs to crisp up his route running on the shorter and intermediate routes. if hes only running deep routes, that limits his upside by a lot and DB's will know how to cover him and that will hurt his effectiveness (and likely cut into the other WR's production)
Like I said, its the # of mouths to feed that also limits him here.
I'd say he has 1200-1300 yard upside. and he only gets it if Laporta or ARSB gets hurt.
most likely scenario is 700-800 yards with 1000 yard upside if he figures out how to beat the Jam at the line more consistently (which I will admit is possible)
but if hes gonna get to that 1000 yard mark with nobody getting hurt, he needs to crisp up his route running on the shorter and intermediate routes. if hes only running deep routes, that limits his upside by a lot and DB's will know how to cover him and that will hurt his effectiveness (and likely cut into the other WR's production)
Like I said, its the # of mouths to feed that also limits him here.
