Atlanta has inexplicably not utilized him nearly enough in the red zone, but no idea how anyone can think that.
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WR Julio Jones, PHI (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Team Smokin'
- Start date
TripItUp
Footballguy
Trust me, I have him ranked higher than most at #8 overall, but he's just not as good in the redzone.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Because I watch the games...the fade routes that guys like Dez and Megatron run for a large percentage of their redzone TDs...Julio just isn't great at those types of routes.
It's not "inexplicable" that he didn't get utilized, the coaches knew it wasn't his strong suit and they had better options. These coaches aren't morons, if they see an advantage they take it.
I'm not saying he can't improve, but based on history I don't expect there to be a surge out of nowhere for redzone TDs.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I prefer to look at it relatively and not absolutely. I think Dez and A.Brown have a relatively higher possibility of leading the league in TDs (particularly Dez) than Julio. But I do think this is probably Julio's best chance to score double digit TDs (and Shanahan's best chance to have a #1 WR score double digit TDs). Whether or not the O/U is higher for one than the other is tough to say.
Chaka
Footballguy
I do think the scheme is great for receptions and yardage and if I played in a PPR I might have him as my #1 WR.Yes, that's where our disagreement has been the entire time. I think the scheme is great, you don't.
But I don't think it is a great scheme for TDs when compared to the schemes Dez and A.Brown play in. Linehan and Haley force feed their #1 WRs in the red zone and in goal-to-go situations Shanny's scheme is more likely to get cute in goal-to-go and target the #3 TE or FB sneaking out into the flat with his #1 WR draws triple coverage on the opposite side of the field.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Why would I trust you? Which NFL team do you coach/scout for?
We're all just a bunch of anonymous jokers on a fake football internet message board.
Chaka
Footballguy
Because I watch the games...the fade routes that guys like Dez and Megatron run for a large percentage of their redzone TDs...Julio just isn't great at those types of routes.
Love the "I watch the games" schtick. Man, why didn't I think of that? All of those red zone TDs in college must have been dumb luck.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
A. Brown, but it's very close. The more I look at the Steeler's schedule the more I want to move Julio up.
Maybe that's the disconnect- IMO you should be comparing the scheme to the one he's been in, not ones other WRs are in. Julio put up 8 TDs as a rookie in 13 games under Mike Mularkey and 10 his second year under Dirk Koetter. Even if you want to ignore all the evidence I've given that Shanny does feed his #1 in the red zone (side note- Julio had half as many red zone TDs in the first drive of the first pre-season game last week as he had all of last year), surely you admit that he's head and shoulders above those jokers?I do think the scheme is great for receptions and yardage and if I played in a PPR I might have him as my #1 WR.Yes, that's where our disagreement has been the entire time. I think the scheme is great, you don't.
But I don't think it is a great scheme for TDs when compared to the schemes Dez and A.Brown play in. Linehan and Haley force feed their #1 WRs in the red zone and in goal-to-go situations Shanny's scheme is more likely to get cute in goal-to-go and target the #3 TE or FB sneaking out into the flat with his #1 WR draws triple coverage on the opposite side of the field.
The baseline should be his past situations, not Dez's or A. Brown's. Perhaps those schemes are better than his current one, but his current one is much better than his prior ones.
Even if we differ a little bit on Jones, I think taking him over Brown is indeed crazy talk.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Deamon
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
IDK how someone can say Julio isn't good in the end zone...
If I'm throwing the ball to someone in the end zone, I'd prob take Calvin, Dez, and then Julio in that order (I can see an argument for any of them though).
If I'm throwing the ball to someone in the end zone, I'd prob take Calvin, Dez, and then Julio in that order (I can see an argument for any of them though).
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
So what is the explanation for his relative lack of redzone targets?
Just pure dumb luck, or lack thereof?
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Riding a 33 game 5/50 streak... I think when you are talking about early first rounders, the feeling of a safety net is big, Antonio gives you that.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'd blame the play calling and coaching above and beyond. Why can he beat anyone and catch anything anywhere on the field, but not be as good in the end zone?
jurb26
Footballguy
Well, he said REDzone, not end zone so maybe there's a bit of a disconnect here. Either way I don't agree with the premise that he isn't good in the redzone or end zone.
TripItUp
Footballguy
correct, I also did not say he wasn't good, he's just not great like Dez or Megatron...that lack of greatness caps his TD ceiling IMHO.
Opinions vary obviously, and it sounds like I'm in the minority on that...no biggie.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Let me ask you this, do you think Megatron is a better redzone target than say, Danny Amendola?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Calvin Johnson had 1964 yards receiving 3 years ago, 5 TDs. In fact, he has only gone above 12 once in his career. 2 years ago it was James Jones with the NFL lead, 2 years before him it was Dwayne Bowe, the year before Vernon Davis had a tie for the top. This comes down more to the situation than ability.
I'd take Julio in end zone or redzone over anyone but maybe one or two guys.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Chaka
Footballguy
Why I wouldn't compare schemes between Dez, Brown and Julio when I am trying to decide which one to draft? It is highly relevant.Maybe that's the disconnect- IMO you should be comparing the scheme to the one he's been in, not ones other WRs are in. Julio put up 8 TDs as a rookie in 13 games under Mike Mularkey and 10 his second year under Dirk Koetter. Even if you want to ignore all the evidence I've given that Shanny does feed his #1 in the red zone (side note- Julio had half as many red zone TDs in the first drive of the first pre-season game last week as he had all of last year), surely you admit that he's head and shoulders above those jokers?I do think the scheme is great for receptions and yardage and if I played in a PPR I might have him as my #1 WR.Yes, that's where our disagreement has been the entire time. I think the scheme is great, you don't.
But I don't think it is a great scheme for TDs when compared to the schemes Dez and A.Brown play in. Linehan and Haley force feed their #1 WRs in the red zone and in goal-to-go situations Shanny's scheme is more likely to get cute in goal-to-go and target the #3 TE or FB sneaking out into the flat with his #1 WR draws triple coverage on the opposite side of the field.
The baseline should be his past situations, not Dez's or A. Brown's. Perhaps those schemes are better than his current one, but his current one is much better than his prior ones.
If you look at his usage last year you will find that there really isn't much room for a big increase. He was #3 in the league last year in targets (21 behind Demaryius and 18 behind A.Brown). So how much of an uptick in usage can we expect? You are arguing that Shanny will use him more effectively specifically around the redzone because there isn't much room to use him that much better everywhere else.
I agree that Shanny's system feeds his #1 WR a lot but your data about Shanny and the redzone falls kind of flat when he has never produced a double digit scorer. I hate to move the goal posts on you but while redzone is good, when it comes to TDs I would like to see the evidence that Shanny targets his #1 WR as much as guys like Linehan and Haley in goal-to-go situations.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
I think I should point out that I don't play in PPR (Julio may be my #1 in that format) so TDs are incredibly relevant. While I think Julio has almost as much of a chance as anyone to be the #1 WR in any format in non-ppr leagues I will take the guys with proven TD production playing in schemes that have long histories of producing double digit TDs for their #1 WRs.
In all of those scenarios Dez/Antonio > Julio and Linehan/Haley > Shanahan.
In all of those scenarios Dez/Antonio > Julio and Linehan/Haley > Shanahan.
This, and the fact that opposing teams know how good he is down there so they double-team him.
TripItUp
Footballguy
And I think it's a combination of both...situations would present themselves more often if you were unstoppable in the redzone.
I think it's interesting to note that Julio and Andre Johnson have very similar skillsets, and Andre also didn't rack up the TDs as much as many had hoped.
Food for thought.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Andre Johnson also had a great running team with Arian Foster getting into the end zone very frequently for the last 6 or 7 years.
IDK, to say Julio isn't as good in the redzone just doesn't add up to me. Fairly positive he can beat almost anyone going up for the ball, on a fade, a slant, or however they use him. With an aging Roddy, no proven RB, and no Tony G, I think they use him much more in redzone this year, and I have no doubt if he gets the targets, he gets the job done.
jurb26
Footballguy
This is what really has me excited about Julio this year. Atl just doesn't have anyone else remotely as talented as him and I think the offense will largely run through him. In years past he's had to contend with some pretty stout offensive weapons for targets. I just don't see that as much this year.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm talking myself into Julio over Antonio right now 
1.03, this is a tough one.
1.03, this is a tough one.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Hate that Antonio will be returning punts this year, just insanely stupid.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/unreliable-red-zone-receivers-150800130--nfl.html
julio had a measily 12 red zone targets last year... it was infuriating to watch ATL in the redzone as they always seemed to run the same stupid drag route for the #3 WR and julio was always a decoy. the other elite WR's had double if not triple that red zone targets.... if that red zone targets were to increase to even double say 24-25 he's bound to add 2-3 TD's and could be in line for 10+ it all kind of depends how ATL plans to run their red zone offense
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You can stop being obtuse any time you're ready- we've been talking about Julio Jones and what impact Kyle Shannahan is going to have on his TDs. What scheme they run in Dallas, Pitt, or how many TDs Dez or Brown score have absolutely nothing to do with that discussion.Why I wouldn't compare schemes between Dez, Brown and Julio when I am trying to decide which one to draft? It is highly relevant.Maybe that's the disconnect- IMO you should be comparing the scheme to the one he's been in, not ones other WRs are in. Julio put up 8 TDs as a rookie in 13 games under Mike Mularkey and 10 his second year under Dirk Koetter. Even if you want to ignore all the evidence I've given that Shanny does feed his #1 in the red zone (side note- Julio had half as many red zone TDs in the first drive of the first pre-season game last week as he had all of last year), surely you admit that he's head and shoulders above those jokers?I do think the scheme is great for receptions and yardage and if I played in a PPR I might have him as my #1 WR.Yes, that's where our disagreement has been the entire time. I think the scheme is great, you don't.
But I don't think it is a great scheme for TDs when compared to the schemes Dez and A.Brown play in. Linehan and Haley force feed their #1 WRs in the red zone and in goal-to-go situations Shanny's scheme is more likely to get cute in goal-to-go and target the #3 TE or FB sneaking out into the flat with his #1 WR draws triple coverage on the opposite side of the field.
The baseline should be his past situations, not Dez's or A. Brown's. Perhaps those schemes are better than his current one, but his current one is much better than his prior ones.
If you look at his usage last year you will find that there really isn't much room for a big increase. He was #3 in the league last year in targets (21 behind Demaryius and 18 behind A.Brown). So how much of an uptick in usage can we expect? You are arguing that Shanny will use him more effectively specifically around the redzone because there isn't much room to use him that much better everywhere else.
I agree that Shanny's system feeds his #1 WR a lot but your data about Shanny and the redzone falls kind of flat when he has never produced a double digit scorer. I hate to move the goal posts on you but while redzone is good, when it comes to TDs I would like to see the evidence that Shanny targets his #1 WR as much as guys like Linehan and Haley in goal-to-go situations.
I know there isn't much room for a big increase in targets and catches for Julio, and yes, I've been arguing that Shanny will use him more effectively around the red zone- he did so with AJ, and I see no reason why he wouldn't do the same thing with Julio.
Again, you're using the incorrect comparison- AJ never reached your magical double digit TD number, but he did have his highest and 2nd highest TD totals of his 12 year career in the only two years he was his coach. Ergo, if Julio follows that same path and also has a career high for TDs, that puts him over 10. I've already posted the numbers of how often he targeted AJ in the red zone, which was ~twice as often as Julio was last season. Yet again, how often Linehan and Haley target their guys down there is completely irrelevant to Julio's numbers.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Why do you resort to "he's just not good at running the fade"?
Is there some basis for that? Is there some analyst out there who is breaking down his tape and seeing that? Are you actually breaking down his tape and seeing that?
Or are you just kinda looking at the overall numbers or watching the game and concluding that he must be the problem because they didn't throw him the fade in that last series?
For one thing, Julio has had a pretty accomplished physical WR on the opposite side in Roddy White. I don't think Dez or Calvin have ever played with a guy that was as an accomplished WR as Roddy White is. So while Julio has had the flash and certainly gotten some attention from DB's and DC's, I do think the presence of Roddy has somewhat limited Julio's ceiling just because White provides a tempting alternative that keeps Ryan from having to force a ball in to Julio. Throw a lower percentage pass to Julio downfield or find Roddy just past the sticks in one on one coverage? Julio still gets his looks. But the team hasn't needed to force feed him the ball like other teams have had to do with their stud WR.
Really?
Don't just look at last year.....look at the year before.
110 receptions, 1499 yards, 8 TDs.
That's two straight monster seasons.
For a first pick, he's incredibly safer than Jones....who, I might add, has missed several games in his his 4 year career.
Chaka
Footballguy
That's nice. It works both ways. The highest and second highest TD total of AJ's career were both under 10 (and that really isn't fair because AJ's highest per season TD rate was the year before Shanny arrived when he had 8 TDs in 9 games 0.89 TD/game, he went had a 0.53 TD/game rate under Shanny). See? I can make the ergo work the other way too.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I think this is a very good point that I may have underestimated when viewing Shanny as a coordinator.
Perhaps I should downgrade Demariyus Thomas?
Actually no. Shanny had one decent year with Slaton running the ball and the wheels fell off the Houston running game the following season.
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i posted 2 posts ago julio is 3 for his last 21 red zone chances, so i guess that is an indirect basis
Insein
Footballguy
Jordy was my boy last year for stud WR breakout. Julio wouldn't really be a break out but I think the TDs come way up this year after a coaching change and new energy for the offense. He is their best weapon and I think they feed him lots.
180-120-1740-10
Trying to nab him in the first of a 12 team PPR but I have the 7th pick.
180-120-1740-10
Trying to nab him in the first of a 12 team PPR but I have the 7th pick.
