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WR Michael Crabtree, Free Agent (2 Viewers)

FF Ninja said:
They run different routes and have different strengths. I saw that Cooper is actually below average when it comes to contested catches while Crabtree is one of the best in the NFL, so don't let ypt influence you too much - Crabtree is still a very good WR. He's just not playing a sexy role in this offense. He finished 9th in first downs (for WRs - didn't check TEs), so I'm with Ilove80s in that the coaches probably don't care about ypt. What they likely care about is first downs and touchdowns. 
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Roles have a lot to do with ypt and catch rate numbers, no doubt. If, as you suggest, Crabtree runs more possession type routes, why did Cooper had a better catch rate last year? 

 
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cloppbeast said:
Ypt and catch rate are about the best numbers to measure a receiver's efectiveness. The coaches might not care about them, but they do care if Crabtree's doing well.

In comparing numbers between them, nothing suggests Crabtree plays better than Amari, thus deserves more targets. 

Anyway, he's the clear number two with no competition. He's a lock for 130 targets. Although, other than some TDs, he won't do much with those opportunities. As you've said, no upside. High floor player in the fourth is not too exciting, especially with guys like Stefon Diggs and Martavis Bryant sitting there.
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Again, I think what coaches are looking at is so much more complicated than yards per target and catch rate. I don't mind Crabtree's safety at the end of the 4th, beginning of the 3rd. He makes a nice 3rd WR. I think I take Bryant over him, but that is close and might depend on who I have already drafted. No way I put Diggs close to Crabtree. I am not investing a pick that high in the Vikings passing game. 

 
cloppbeast said:
In comparing numbers between them, nothing suggests Crabtree plays better than Amari, thus deserves more targets. 
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Um, I think you mean in comparing the two numbers that you consider important. I just happened upon the contested catch rate which clearly favors Crabtree, so there very well may be other numbers in which Crabtree compares favorably... 

cloppbeast said:
Roles have a lot to do with ypt and catch rate numbers, no doubt. If, as you suggest, Crabtree runs more possession type routes, why did Cooper had a better catch rate last year? 
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I'd need quite a bit of data and analysis to answer that question. There are many, many reasons. Maybe Cooper had more catchable targets than Crabtree? Maybe Crabtree had a lot more contested catches than Cooper?

FWIW, they both ranked similarly here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

As I see it, it would make sense to continue to split targets roughly 50/50 between the two WRs. 

 
cloppbeast said:
We'll leave it at that.

50/50 would still decrease Crabtree's targets.
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Yeah, I think it's only a matter of time until Cooper surpasses Crabtree as Carr's go to guy - but that doesn't mean that Crabtree has no value in a pass heavy offense playing with a very good young QB that trust him. Whether he has "upside" is not all that relevant if you project him to come close to what he's done since he came to Oakland. If he hits those marks he clearly belongs as an option in Round 4. Perhaps Diggs and Bryant have more upside, but they have more downside (for various reasons) as well.

 
cloppbeast said:
We'll leave it at that.

50/50 would still decrease Crabtree's targets.
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I said roughly... 145-131 is pretty close to 50/50 (52.5%/47.5%). Crabtree would still likely outperform his ADP with 131 targets if they were to totally flip flop target shares. His current ADP is WR22. He was at WR14 on a PPG basis last year in PPR.

What's weird is that Crabtree only played 835 snaps to Cooper's 997 last year. I don't see Crabtree's snaps decreasing further in 2017, so it's very possible that the same targets trend continues. 

 
FF Ninja said:
I said roughly... 145-131 is pretty close to 50/50 (52.5%/47.5%). Crabtree would still likely outperform his ADP with 131 targets if they were to totally flip flop target shares. His current ADP is WR22. He was at WR14 on a PPG basis last year in PPR.

What's weird is that Crabtree only played 835 snaps to Cooper's 997 last year. I don't see Crabtree's snaps decreasing further in 2017, so it's very possible that the same targets trend continues. 
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I have Crabtree at exactly 131 for targets, which puts him at WR25 in PPR for me. I've managed to get him in a few leagues when Diggs and Bryant go early. 

 
cloppbeast said:
I have Crabtree at exactly 131 for targets, which puts him at WR25 in PPR for me. I've managed to get him in a few leagues when Diggs and Bryant go early. 
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Yeah Crabtree has been my target so far as my WR2. I'm totally fine with him. I don't see anything that says his numbers would go down from last season, so I think he has a pretty high floor.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Yeah, I think it's only a matter of time until Cooper surpasses Crabtree as Carr's go to guy - but that doesn't mean that Crabtree has no value in a pass heavy offense playing with a very good young QB that trust him. Whether he has "upside" is not all that relevant if you project him to come close to what he's done since he came to Oakland. If he hits those marks he clearly belongs as an option in Round 4. Perhaps Diggs and Bryant have more upside, but they have more downside (for various reasons) as well.
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You promote risk aversion. 

Every player's floor is the same. No player is safe. A target dependent guy doesn't offer any more reliability than a high upside guy. We've seen last year the Raiders passing game go to #### through no fault of Crabtree's. 

As far as Diggs goes, he's not an unknown commodity. We know he's good already, and in my humble opinion, better than Crabtree. You make an assessment their situations, but that can change really fast. And there's a lot of unknowns. The supposed risk is built into the price, but the opportunity for windfall should sway you towards the better player, not the better situation. 

 
cloppbeast said:
I have Crabtree at exactly 131 for targets, which puts him at WR25 in PPR for me. I've managed to get him in a few leagues when Diggs and Bryant go early. 
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Sounds fair if you feel strongly about a sudden dip in targets after 2 straight years of ~145. I don't really have a strong opinion on Bryant or Diggs. I haven't landed any of these 3 players this year (did land Crabtree frequently the past 2 years) but I will note that Diggs' injury history scares me off of him (especially combined with the fact that Bradford doesn't utilize Diggs' skill set properly). I know people think the sky is the limit for Bryant, but Big Ben can't produce a top 3 WR and a top 12 WR (well, maybe if Bell gets hurt and they abandon the run, but Ben is just as likely as Bell to get injured), so I'd probably rather have Crabtree than Bryant. I really won't be surprised to see Crabtree put up another WR14 ppg performance, though. There's no indication Carr will stop looking his way. My only concern would be if Beast Mode is in full effect. Could decrease overall passing attempts and decrease Crabtree's goal line usage.

 
cloppbeast said:
Roles have a lot to do with ypt and catch rate numbers, no doubt. If, as you suggest, Crabtree runs more possession type routes, why did Cooper had a better catch rate last year? 
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IMO it's because Cooper creates more separation from coverage and just "gets open" more often than Crabtree. Crabtree does exceptionally better at battling for the ball and while his catch rate may not be as high. It also may partially explain why Crabtree gets more looks near the goal line where it's more difficult for Cooper to create separation.

 
cloppbeast said:
Every player's floor is the same. No player is safe. 
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That's an overly simplistic and at the same time overly hyperbolic stance to take. By saying that you may as well say - "just pick out of a hat because anything can happen".

Risk comes in at many levels - sure every WR could lose their QB rendering them a bust, but since every player has that risk, that risk cancels out.

We have a proven track record of what Crabtree should do in Oakland provided he and Carr stay healthy. His floor is rather high.

I actually love Diggs but he has a small sample size, has shown an inability to stay healthy and is limited by his dink and dunk QB

Bryant has one season where he showed promise - but did not put up huge overall numbers, missed a full season and plays on a team where his QB has shown to miss time, and is at best the team's third option behind Bell and Brown.

To say "Every player's floor is the same" is rather silly. I'm sure you can't really believe that. If so what's the point in ranking players at all?

 
FF Ninja said:
What's weird is that Crabtree only played 835 snaps to Cooper's 997 last year. I don't see Crabtree's snaps decreasing further in 2017, so it's very possible that the same targets trend continues. 
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It depends in part whether you believe in Lynch or not. If you believe in Lynch as being a significant upgrade to Murray the argument could be made oak will control the clock more often and need to throw the ball less so there will be fewer potential targets for everyone. Further, both Cook and Patterson were added to the receiving corp so Crabtree could have a smaller target/snap ratio this season than last. 

BTW, I'm not saying I believe in all this happening. I'm merely stating I can understand if someone made that argument. 

 
BoltBacker said:
It depends in part whether you believe in Lynch or not. If you believe in Lynch as being a significant upgrade to Murray the argument could be made oak will control the clock more often and need to throw the ball less so there will be fewer potential targets for everyone. Further, both Cook and Patterson were added to the receiving corp so Crabtree could have a smaller target/snap ratio this season than last. 

BTW, I'm not saying I believe in all this happening. I'm merely stating I can understand if someone made that argument. 
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Yeah, I see those things, too. And if he stated that I might give his logic more credit, but he seems to just be saying "Cooper is going to steal Crabtree's targets because hype."

Personally, I'm a Lynch believer. I'm not much of a Cook or Patterson believer, though. I don't think Patterson will impact Crabtree at all. Seth Roberts might need to look over his shoulder a little bit, though.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
That's an overly simplistic and at the same time overly hyperbolic stance to take. By saying that you may as well say - "just pick out of a hat because anything can happen".

Risk comes in at many levels - sure every WR could lose their QB rendering them a bust, but since every player has that risk, that risk cancels out.

We have a proven track record of what Crabtree should do in Oakland provided he and Carr stay healthy. His floor is rather high.

I actually love Diggs but he has a small sample size, has shown an inability to stay healthy and is limited by his dink and dunk QB

Bryant has one season where he showed promise - but did not put up huge overall numbers, missed a full season and plays on a team where his QB has shown to miss time, and is at best the team's third option behind Bell and Brown.

To say "Every player's floor is the same" is rather silly. I'm sure you can't really believe that. If so what's the point in ranking players at all?
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Every player's floor is the same. Maybe it's silly fact to use, this is your opinion. But it's not hyperbolic because it's a fact. 

Players with a proven track record in a decent situation still come with risk, even if it's not acknowledged. You could call it unknown risk. Especially an arguably mediocre player force fed the ball. One who benefits from his team not having a reliable third receiver. Lots of things could screw this player's season because his value comes largely from his situation, things out of his control. QB could get hurt, backups become more dependable thus lessening said players share, team passes the ball less, ect. 

Talented high upside guy in a crappy place has less risks with his situation because it's already assumed it sucks real bad. This assumption is built into the price. The windfall opportunity results from the chance we're all wrong about his usage, or his quarterback's play, pass attempts, ect. Not to mention said talented player could still do well still even if things around him don't improve.

Diggs still did pretty well last year in Minnesota, better than Crabtree in ppg, if not for TDs.

 
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cloppbeast said:
Every player's floor is the same. Maybe it's silly fact to use, this is your opinion. But it's not hyperbolic because it's a fact. 
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How is that a "fact"?

Unless you are saying that every player's floor is zero because he may get hurt - but if that's the case why even use terms like "floor" and "ceiling" if we are going to just take away any meaning from it?

 
Chaka said:
Cooper has zero career receptions inside the 10.

I found that surprising.
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That will change this year.  I expect Cooper to take another step this year and put some distance between Crabtree. 

I still like Crabtree and think he makes a solid WR3.  He is going to get targets and TDs but not a ton of yards.  He is the possession WR.  The Raider O is going to look a little different this year with the maturation of the two young RBs and the addition of Lynch and Cooks.  Cooks is going to take some targets away from Crabtree in the Raider O.  Cooks is not going to be an elite TE but should be pretty steady and get a handful of targets weekly.   

 
Chaka said:
Cooper has zero career receptions inside the 10.

I found that surprising.
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I'm telling you guys, it's because he's not good at contested catches. Despite being a stud in pretty much all other categories, he was actually below average in college at contested catches, too. He had 6 targets inside the 5 last year and 0 receptions. This guy's career stats could shape up like AJ, except Andre was actually good at contested catches, he just never had a QB who was any good in the red zone...

 
Raiders coach Jack Del Rio declined to say if Michael Crabtree (questionable, chest) suffered a setback at Friday's practice.

Crabtree didn't practice Friday after putting in limited sessions earlier this week. It's possible he was given a rest day, but he's now trending in the wrong direction. Crabtree's chest injury didn't look overly serious and he's not dealing with any structural damage. Even with a late game, Crabtree's status should be known early Sunday.

Source: Michael Gehlken on Twitter
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Michael Crabtree absorbed six-of-eight targets for 82 yards and a touchdown Sunday in the Raiders’ Week 5 loss to the Ravens.

Crabtree looked no worse for the wear in his return from a bruised lung, accounting for over half the team’s receiving yards. He got Oakland on the board with a 41-yard touchdown in the second quarter, dusting Brandon Carr on a deep ball from E.J. Manuel. Crabtree was Manuel’s clear go-to receiver, drawing a team-high eight targets compared to only two for Amari Cooper. The Raiders will try to halt their three-game losing streak next week against the 1-4 Chargers.
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NFL suspended Raiders WR Michael Crabtree two games for violations of unsportsmanlike conduct and unnecessary roughness rules Week 12 against the Broncos.

It seems incredibly harsh, especially after A.J. Green and Jalen Ramsey didn't even get suspensions for their on-field pummeling of each other a couple weeks back. Of course, this isn't the first time Crabtree and CB Aqib Talib got into a skirmish revolving around Talib yanking Crabtree's chain off his neck. We'd bet both players appeal their bans with a good chance it's knocked to one game.

Nov 27 - 9:27 PM
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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Michael Crabtree's suspension for unsportsmanlike conduct and unnecessary roughness violations has been reduced from two games to one.

This stems from his fight with Aqib Talib. Crabtree will now be eligible to return against the Chiefs in Week 14. It's good news for the Raiders, though they'll still be shorthanded Sunday versus the Giants with Crabtree out and Amari Cooper in the concussion protocol.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter
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This knuckle-head cost me a playoff spot last week.

I'm looking forward to the offseason when I can trade his dumas for a ham sandwich.

 
No risk on Crabtree playing this week is there? I read he was being checked for concussion at very end of last week’s game.

Raiders have the Monday night game this week and I haven’t seen him show up on practice reports but want to be sure 

 
bombjack said:
No risk on Crabtree playing this week is there? I read he was being checked for concussion at very end of last week’s game.

Raiders have the Monday night game this week and I haven’t seen him show up on practice reports but want to be sure 
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Haven't seen a single thing that says he isn't playing. Have you?

 
@GehlkenNFL 

Michael Crabtree: "I just don't understand why they took me out on the last play of the game. They said they put me in concussion protocol two plays after the big pass interference. I don't understand. ... I'm good (not concussed). That's why I was pissed off."

 
The Athletic's Vic Tafur reports the Raiders will bring back Michael Crabtree for the 2018 season.

Crabtree's $7.5 million in salary and bonuses isn't guaranteed, but new coach Jon Gruden met with the receiver and is going to give him a clean slate after Crabtree butted heads with Jack Del Rio's staff last season. Crabtree will turn 31 in September and has never had good speed. However, Crabtree wins with vise-grip hands and an ability to get open. It's a smart move by Oakland.
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This has to be seen as good news. He's got a good rapport with Carr and started the season off at a solid pace before things fell apart with the coaching staff. 

 
FF Ninja said:
This has to be seen as good news. He's got a good rapport with Carr and started the season off at a solid pace before things fell apart with the coaching staff. 
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I'm a fan of bringing him back. The thing I keep thinking is: what free agent WR if gonna offer the same value he can (when he's right) for 7.5 mill? It's a contract year, his motivation is obvious. 

 
massraider said:
I'm a fan of bringing him back. The thing I keep thinking is: what free agent WR if gonna offer the same value he can (when he's right) for 7.5 mill? It's a contract year, his motivation is obvious. 
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And as mentioned in the Cooper thread, the Raiders have little at WR.  It is not like another WR on the roster is able to outplay Crabtree.  That is a problem for the Raiders but probably good for Cooper and Crabtree owners in FF.  Carr has to throw the ball to someone and those 2 are the only WRs that should see constant production.   

 
massraider said:
I'm a fan of bringing him back. The thing I keep thinking is: what free agent WR if gonna offer the same value he can (when he's right) for 7.5 mill? It's a contract year, his motivation is obvious. 
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Only reason to get rid of him would be if his personality really bugs Gruden. Gruden is the same guy who sat a productive Keyshawn Johnson for half a season once upon a time.

 
The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports the Raiders are expected to release Michael Crabtree if they sign free agent Jordy Nelson.

Even as other outlets covering the team have reported Crabtree is safe, the Review-Journal has insisted he isn't, and Tuesday's visit with Nelson all but confirms it. Nelson has history with Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie, a former Packers exec. Nelson would take Crabtree's old possession/red-zone role across from Amari Cooper. Cooper is expected to be the Raiders' go-to wideout in '18.
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At this point in their careers, I'd rather have Crabtree.

 
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4731/jordy-nelson

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Jordy Nelson is expected to sign with the Raiders.

Nelson is still in Oakland after visiting with the Raiders on Wednesday, and a source told Schefter, "This is going to get done." Nelson is clearly on the back nine of his career, but he would be a solid red-zone option for Derek Carr. If Nelson does end up in Oakland, the Raiders are expected to move on from Michael Crabtree. Mar 15 - 11:36 AM

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter

 
Raiders released WR Michael Crabtree.

The move saves the Raiders a tad over $7.7 million against the cap. Most of that will likely go to Jordy Nelson, who is not only older than Crabtree, but also looked more out of gas in 2017. However, GM Reggie McKenzie and new WRs coach Edgar Bennett know Nelson from Green Bay. And that trumps all in the "football guys" world. Crabtree is an elite red-zone force and has vise-grip mitts, even if he had a small bout of drops late last season. Crabtree turns 31 this year but is a tremendous route-runner and should quickly land on his feet.

Related: Raiders

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Mar 15 - 3:50 PM
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